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I'm not buying it. We're not in a different era than we were 2 years ago when 3 RBs were taken in the first 5 picks, or last year when 4 RBs were taken in the first round. Lynch is a first rounder even if it isn't Green Bay or Buffalo who takes him. If he begins to slide into the 20s some team take him as BPA, possibly someone trading up into the round.
I could see the Bears landing Beason in the late 1st/early 2nd regardless of whether Briggs stays or goes. IMO that would solve the WLB situation fairly well if they do make the trade with Joe starting and Beason platooning over there.A trade would also open up the 1st round to address the lines (which IMO have to be a priority). I would be happy with most of the top lineman in this draft. Gaines, Joe Thomas, Okoye IMO would be all be very nice additions.So what you are saying is DON'T draft a LB and WHEN Briggs sits for more than half a season you have a gaping hole and don't have anyone to take his place? Its not a question of IF Briggs leaves, it's WHEN. Could be this year, could be next, could be in two years, but it will happen. The Bears have to find a replacement sooner or later. Not sure if it will be in this draft, but if a talent falls to them, they I wouldn;t be opposed to the Bears taking a LB.I wonder about the Bears taking a LB in the first round, unless they feel they are getting extradinaire value. If the Bears don't make the trade with the Redskins, taking a LB in the first round seems to be conceding to Briggs. You are ignoring other needs to address LB, anticipating Briggs not playing. IF that is the case you might as well trade him. Because then you have to leave the $7.2 million open for Briggs, and you have to pay a first round LB first round money too. And you probably aren't going to get great production out of any first round LB because you have a hard time plugging a rookie into a top 5 D immediately. IF you do that you almost force yourself to trade Briggs. And then I think you are at a disadvantage. I think you get less than you would have before the draft because teams know you have to make a trade before the end of the year or you may get nothing for him. Does this make sense?Ok. DT. I guess a DT might be able to step in and help the Bears immediately. That is a must for a top 10 pick (except for QBs). Branch is a bit of a freak, but I'm buying into the negative sentiments with him lately. I sense a free fall. Okoye is a freak in that he is so young and has such skinny legs that he'll never hold up against the run. The Bears are too smart for that. I don't see it. No lineman. I've said since mid season Patrick Willis could play OLB. I think lining him up with Urlacher might be smart.
And how much impact in the W/L column have the top 3 in 5 RBs from 2 years ago made?Besides, I already said Lynch is a first rounder. But it's not impossible or stupid to say he could slide out. Remember how high Steven Jackson was SUPPOSED to go?Couch Potato said:
There always seems to be a RB or two that is projected to go in the first round and slips out during the draft. This is normally because of a bad workout of some kind or injury.
How many of the first rounders that went in that year would you say have made an impact on their teams W/L record at this point?Also, i dont think SJax was ever considered a top 10 back, if i recall correctly most mocks had him going mid-to late teens.
Andy, I'd rather look at actual draft history than try to hypothesize what impact this or that group has made.There have been at least 2 RBs taken in the 1st round in every draft from 1985-2006. That's 22 consecutive years. In 1984 only one was taken, probably because teams loaded up in 1982 (7 first rounders) and 1983 (5 first rounders). There were fewer teams in many of those years too.
I've said as much twice now.Assume for a minute that GB doesn't take him. Where's the next most likely spot? I don't see one.
A team like the Bills may trade back up to late in 1st round to take him
This is a game of chicken as far as Briggs is concerned. The Bears aren't interested in signing him to a long term contract now. The money they offered last year has been used to sign other players. They would like to have him for one year. I'm not entirely convinced that Briggs will sit out the season, or even ten games as he has threatened. But if you allow Briggs to muscle you into a trade this year you are faced with the same situation next year with Tommy Harris. The Bears would definitely like to get him signed to a long term deal. However when Tommy, and Rosenhaus his agent, look at the free agent contracts that got signed this year they are going to want a boatload of cash. It is possible that they may be able to get more money from another team. Harris and Rosenhaus can pull the same stunt next year. Harris threatens to hold out and where are the Bears then? IF they draft a LB in the first round you would have to pay him first round money. So you have the $7.2 million you are paying Briggs. whatever you have to pay the rookie, and what you are paying Urlacher. That is a lot of money committed to linebackers.3nOut said:So what you are saying is DON'T draft a LB and WHEN Briggs sits for more than half a season you have a gaping hole and don't have anyone to take his place? Its not a question of IF Briggs leaves, it's WHEN. Could be this year, could be next, could be in two years, but it will happen. The Bears have to find a replacement sooner or later. Not sure if it will be in this draft, but if a talent falls to them, they I wouldn;t be opposed to the Bears taking a LB.I wonder about the Bears taking a LB in the first round, unless they feel they are getting extradinaire value. If the Bears don't make the trade with the Redskins, taking a LB in the first round seems to be conceding to Briggs. You are ignoring other needs to address LB, anticipating Briggs not playing. IF that is the case you might as well trade him. Because then you have to leave the $7.2 million open for Briggs, and you have to pay a first round LB first round money too. And you probably aren't going to get great production out of any first round LB because you have a hard time plugging a rookie into a top 5 D immediately. IF you do that you almost force yourself to trade Briggs. And then I think you are at a disadvantage. I think you get less than you would have before the draft because teams know you have to make a trade before the end of the year or you may get nothing for him. Does this make sense?Ok. DT. I guess a DT might be able to step in and help the Bears immediately. That is a must for a top 10 pick (except for QBs). Branch is a bit of a freak, but I'm buying into the negative sentiments with him lately. I sense a free fall. Okoye is a freak in that he is so young and has such skinny legs that he'll never hold up against the run. The Bears are too smart for that. I don't see it. No lineman. I've said since mid season Patrick Willis could play OLB. I think lining him up with Urlacher might be smart.
What if they traded up/selected Adrian Peterson in the 1st?I'm asking because I am facing this exact situation in my v2.0 mock. I have Lynch going to the Titans, which is about to get shot to hell if/when they acquire Turner.
Sorry, I guess I'm really arguing against Pat Kirwan leaving him out, and not you so much for just saying he may slide.On to your question.
If Lynch made it to #24, I believe the Patriots would take him as BPA. The need another RB to share the load with Maroney. Morris is just depth. Lynch would be at best a 2 headed moster with Maroney and at worts the ultimate replacement for Kevin Faulk.
With the Pats having 2 first round picks this year, I'd have to say I agree with this.Having Maroney in a dynasty league, I'd be bummed out!
They have had quite a few picks in all his mocks that I looked at and couldnt think of any reason the team would make the choice. But Im not an NFL insider so what do I knowCan someone explain to me why the saints would take Joe Staley with their pick when their offensive line was quite good and their defense, not so much. His reason is that all the first round quality corners will be gone, but I find it hard to believe that all the corners he has in his mock will be drafted before the saints first pick. And even if they were I think they look for a DE or LB. His last mock had the Saints trading up to take Olsen. Which I also dont think is likely because just resigned Billy Miller, Mark Campbell ,and brought in Eric Johnson
my guess is the most they move at the top of the draft is to # 10 to get Willis. Anything else requires too many picks.The cost is not nearly as steep at the bottom of the round. However, I don't think Lynch is good enough to justify the Bills to move. I think they sign Chris Brown and draft whoever falls to the 3rd.
