Patrick Willis in a 3-4 (1 Viewer)

[Tenacious]

Question.

I keep hearing about Singletary moving towards using the 3-4 much more frequently this season. My question is did Willis thrive in the 3-4 when it was used last year, and should we expect any noticeable decrease in his stats this year with a more frequent 3-4 alignment?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

You could go here and click on 'player participation' for each week.

Then cross reference that against his production on those plays and let us know the results.

 

[tommyk7]

I wouldn't overthink it. If you're in a position to pick Willis as the top IDP, take him and don't even worry about it. I bet that his numbers could dip a bit from his sensational first two years, but he will still post amazing numbers.

 

[pyite76]

hasn't San Fran been running a 3-4 since Willis entered the league? Mike Nolan just left there and he is exclusively a 3-4 team, hence the change occurring in Denver.

 

[msommer]

Willis was a 3-4 LB last year as well, so that is not a reason to expect the tackles to go down...

 

[Tenacious]

I see.

I was under the impression that this was a part-time 3-4 moving to full time.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I think they were more hybrid 3-4/4-3, but I could be wrong.

like I said, check the player participation.

 

[Jene Bramel]

In 2007, the Niners did use some 4-3 to cover for the relatively poor defensive line depth, but they were 3-4 on base defensive snaps for most of 2007 and 2008. Mike Nolan used whatever front his personnel were best suited to as run defenders at the time. Nolan's 3-4 functions very much like a 4-3 in many ways, though, and the gap responsibilities would have been pretty similar in either case.

I've not heard that Singletary will be moving away from the 1-gap 3-4. That could put a small damper on Willis' prospects. In the end, though, there's not much competition on that defense for tackles and the defense should see plenty of opportunity. Also, given his elite talent, I'd consider Willis nearly scheme-independent right now.

He can be drafted with confidence as one of the first LBs off the board.

 

[Tenacious]

In 2007, the Niners did use some 4-3 to cover for the relatively poor defensive line depth, but they were 3-4 on base defensive snaps for most of 2007 and 2008. Mike Nolan used whatever front his personnel were best suited to as run defenders at the time. Nolan's 3-4 functions very much like a 4-3 in many ways, though, and the gap responsibilities would have been pretty similar in either case.I've not heard that Singletary will be moving away from the 1-gap 3-4. That could put a small damper on Willis' prospects. In the end, though, there's not much competition on that defense for tackles and the defense should see plenty of opportunity. Also, given his elite talent, I'd consider Willis nearly scheme-independent right now.He can be drafted with confidence as one of the first LBs off the board.

Jene I just read your "Ultimate Guide to NFL Defense". I think I'm guilty of overly fearing the 3-4 in the post Vilma world, as you described in the article. Very insightful article, btw. I'll keep Willis at the top.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Alright, I went and counted up the plays from week 1, and if PFF got it right they were in 4-3 about 70% of the time.

 

[drew726]

Patrick Willis is elite status and looks like a perennial pro bowler. I wouldn't care what scheme he's in and just start him regardless.

 

[tex]

We just had 1 owner draft him at 1.4 in redraft league that uses IDP's!!!

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Here's a little bit on the 'niner defense.

http://www.pressdemocrat.com/article/20090...t-49ers-defense

But when defensive coordinator Greg Manusky took over with complete autonomy after the mid-season firing of coach Mike Nolan, Smith’s role — and the 49ers’ defense, in general — became a lot more predictable.

Not to mention, a lot more effective.

Smith recorded four sacks in the 49ers’ final five games of the season to finish with seven sacks for the season, ranking second on the team behind Parys Haralson. (He was first on the team with 57 quarterback pressures.)

“I’m definitely more comfortable and you know exactly what position you are going to be playing and we know exactly what kind of defense we are going to be playing,” Smith said. “We are going to be playing a 3-4 pretty much — just go out there and get them. We are planning on our guys being better than their guys most of the time.”

Through the first half of last season, the 49ers played a hybrid defense that fluctuated from 3-4 to 4-3, seemingly at random. It was not uncommon for Smith to play defensive end or outside linebacker on either side, see some action at inside linebacker and then move inside to defensive tackle on pass-rush situations.

some statistical analysis:

http://www.ninersnation.com/2009/2/14/7590...l-review-of-the

Sounds like Singletary did switch to a more consistent 3-4 look halfway through the season when they turned over the coaching staff.

Ok, I'm not sure exactly which week was Nolan's last game -- was it week 7 (NYG)?

Anyway, it looks like the portion of 4-3 defense they played got cut in half from 80% in week 7 to only 36% in week 8, so I kind of half-assed a quick and lazy analysis by adding up weeks 1-7 and extrapolating out to 16 games, then doing likewise for their final 9 games.

week 1-7 extrapolation: 119 solo, 25 ast, 18 pd

week 8-17 extrapolation: 101 solo, 37 ast, 3.5 pd

Frankly, Willis has been my guy the last couple years, I'm very loyal to my guys and I think he'd be a great player to have, but he's probably very overvalued right now.

There's no way I'm reaching for a guy when there are about a half dozen players off the top of my head who I think stand a good chance to outscore him in IDP, and there are probably several more who should be right there.

Just for perspective, he finished 4th IDP in my league last year, while his above projected second half performance would drop him out of our top 10.

 

[JAM]

What I take from that article is Justin Smith might, and probably should be reclassified as a LB rather than a DE. That would be a blow to those drafting him as a lineman.

In regards to Willis, he's a tremendous talent and will probably be one of the top LBs for years to come, top 10 yes but I don't see #1 any time soon.

 

[Jene Bramel]

What I take from that article is Justin Smith might, and probably should be reclassified as a LB rather than a DE. That would be a blow to those drafting him as a lineman.In regards to Willis, he's a tremendous talent and will probably be one of the top LBs for years to come, top 10 yes but I don't see #1 any time soon.

Actually the article strongly suggests that Smith will stick at RDE this season and not be moved throughout the formation.

Smith, No. 94, will line up at right defensive end in the 49ers’ 3-4 scheme. His whereabouts will not be a mystery, as it was a year ago.