Biabreakable
Footballguy
In the discussion of what to expect from Randy Moss in the player spotlight thread Anarchy asked what people were projecting for the Patriots as a team to arrive at these numbers for him. So this afternoon I finished projecting for the Patriots and I am interested in all comments/criticism folks here in the pool may have on them. Hopefully this code works from my excell file or else I will have to hand jam them in.
Ok then short version:
Tom Brady
2007 560PA 350PC 62.5% 4088 yards 28TD 15INT 30RA 67 yards 1TD
2008 545PA 340PC 62.5% 3979 yards 31TD 14INT 35RA 80 yards 2TD
2009 530PA 330PC 62.3% 3975 yards 32TD 14INT 30RA 60 yards 0TD
Of note: For Qb projections I make them based off of total plays after determining how many times the team will run the ball. I then use completion percentage and yards/attempt to figure out the passes completed and yards TDs are determined by past 3 year average and tweaked based on supporting cast. I use static projections for QB as the basis for how passes will be distributed to RB WR and TE. For those skill positions I use a variable amount of rush attempts/catches within that distribution. So a projection range. I do not do a projection range for the Qb because of the effect it would have on the other players. But I do have an understanding that my Qb projection may vary quite a bit based on how where the other players he is throwing to land on thier range.
Distribution of projection ranges for the other players are interchangeable with each other. For example if Moss is high in his projection range then I expect other players to be low in thiers. And the projections for these players do fit together when you keep this in mind. Not all of them will be high or low in thier projection range.
Lawrence Maroney
2007 240-315RA 1080-1417 yards 10-14TD 25-40 catches 220-352 yards 1TD
2008 260-320RA 1196-1472 yards 10-14TD 25-45 catches 220-396 yards 1-2TD
2009 260-320RA 1070-1440 yards 10-13TD 30-60 catches 264-528 yards 1-3TD
Sammy Morris
2007 35-80RA 136-312 yards 1-2TD 10 catches 71 yards 0TD
2008 25-70RA 85-238 yards 1-2TD 10 catches 71 yards 0TD
2009 not in the league
Kevin Faulk
2007 40-70RA 192-336 yards 35-50 catches 308-440 yards 1-2TD
2008 35-60RA 165-282 yards 30-45 catches 264-396 yards 1-2TD
2009 not in the league
Note Rbs have averaged 81 catches over the past 3 years and this is what receptions are based upon. I do not have Morris or Faulk being with the team in 2009 although I expect another RB to become part of the mix. I do not know who that may be at this time however.
Randy Moss
2007 60-90 catches 948-1422 yards 8-13TD 4RA 28 yards
2008 65-90 catches 1040-1440 yards 9-15TD 4RA 28 yards
2009 65-90 catches 1040-1440 yards 9-14TD 4RA 28 yards
Donte Stallworth
2007 40-60 catches 600-900 yards 5-8TD 2RA 10 yards
2008 40-60 catches 600-900 yards 5-8TD 2RA 10 yards
2009 40-60 catches 600-900 yards 5-8TD 2RA 10 yards
Wes Welker
2007 35-55 catches 409-643 yards 1-3TD 3RA 15 yards
2008 35-55 catches 409-643 yards 1-3TD 3RA 15 yards
2009 35-55 catches 409-643 yards 1-3TD 3RA 15 yards
Note Wrs have averaged 174 catches over the past 3 years and this is what receptions are based upon. In 2005 when the Patriots had a healthy Branch, Givens and Brown for most of the year they had 78, 59 and 39 catches respectivly with 35 going to other WR. This was a down year for TE catches who combined for 53.
I am not sure that Stallworth will still be with the team beyond 2007. If he is not the numbers I am projecting for him in 2008 and 2009 would go to another WR such as Jackson or someone else. Or Welker may become the WR2. I project from where things are right now however and will adjust next year if Stallworth is not longer with the team.
Ben Watson
2007 35-50 catches 483-690 yards 3-5TD
2008 35-50 catches 483-690 yards 3-5TD
2009 35-50 catches 483-690 yards 3-5TD
Thomas
2007 15-20 catches 180-240 yards 0-1TD
2008 15-20 catches 180-240 yards 0-1TD
2009 15-20 catches 180-240 yards 0-1TD
Note TE receptions is not inflated based off of 2006 when the Pats had limited WR options. It is however based on the last 3 year average of 63 for TEs that includes 2006 as both primary TEs are still young and big parts of the offense.
Other recievers (WR/HBACK/TE)
2007 30 catches 300 yards
2008 30 catches 300 yards
2009 30 catches 300 yards
If you want to see team total numbers and other info behind this send PM and I can send you the excell file.
Ok then short version:
Tom Brady
2007 560PA 350PC 62.5% 4088 yards 28TD 15INT 30RA 67 yards 1TD
2008 545PA 340PC 62.5% 3979 yards 31TD 14INT 35RA 80 yards 2TD
2009 530PA 330PC 62.3% 3975 yards 32TD 14INT 30RA 60 yards 0TD
Of note: For Qb projections I make them based off of total plays after determining how many times the team will run the ball. I then use completion percentage and yards/attempt to figure out the passes completed and yards TDs are determined by past 3 year average and tweaked based on supporting cast. I use static projections for QB as the basis for how passes will be distributed to RB WR and TE. For those skill positions I use a variable amount of rush attempts/catches within that distribution. So a projection range. I do not do a projection range for the Qb because of the effect it would have on the other players. But I do have an understanding that my Qb projection may vary quite a bit based on how where the other players he is throwing to land on thier range.
Distribution of projection ranges for the other players are interchangeable with each other. For example if Moss is high in his projection range then I expect other players to be low in thiers. And the projections for these players do fit together when you keep this in mind. Not all of them will be high or low in thier projection range.
Lawrence Maroney
2007 240-315RA 1080-1417 yards 10-14TD 25-40 catches 220-352 yards 1TD
2008 260-320RA 1196-1472 yards 10-14TD 25-45 catches 220-396 yards 1-2TD
2009 260-320RA 1070-1440 yards 10-13TD 30-60 catches 264-528 yards 1-3TD
Sammy Morris
2007 35-80RA 136-312 yards 1-2TD 10 catches 71 yards 0TD
2008 25-70RA 85-238 yards 1-2TD 10 catches 71 yards 0TD
2009 not in the league
Kevin Faulk
2007 40-70RA 192-336 yards 35-50 catches 308-440 yards 1-2TD
2008 35-60RA 165-282 yards 30-45 catches 264-396 yards 1-2TD
2009 not in the league
Note Rbs have averaged 81 catches over the past 3 years and this is what receptions are based upon. I do not have Morris or Faulk being with the team in 2009 although I expect another RB to become part of the mix. I do not know who that may be at this time however.
Randy Moss
2007 60-90 catches 948-1422 yards 8-13TD 4RA 28 yards
2008 65-90 catches 1040-1440 yards 9-15TD 4RA 28 yards
2009 65-90 catches 1040-1440 yards 9-14TD 4RA 28 yards
Donte Stallworth
2007 40-60 catches 600-900 yards 5-8TD 2RA 10 yards
2008 40-60 catches 600-900 yards 5-8TD 2RA 10 yards
2009 40-60 catches 600-900 yards 5-8TD 2RA 10 yards
Wes Welker
2007 35-55 catches 409-643 yards 1-3TD 3RA 15 yards
2008 35-55 catches 409-643 yards 1-3TD 3RA 15 yards
2009 35-55 catches 409-643 yards 1-3TD 3RA 15 yards
Note Wrs have averaged 174 catches over the past 3 years and this is what receptions are based upon. In 2005 when the Patriots had a healthy Branch, Givens and Brown for most of the year they had 78, 59 and 39 catches respectivly with 35 going to other WR. This was a down year for TE catches who combined for 53.
I am not sure that Stallworth will still be with the team beyond 2007. If he is not the numbers I am projecting for him in 2008 and 2009 would go to another WR such as Jackson or someone else. Or Welker may become the WR2. I project from where things are right now however and will adjust next year if Stallworth is not longer with the team.
Ben Watson
2007 35-50 catches 483-690 yards 3-5TD
2008 35-50 catches 483-690 yards 3-5TD
2009 35-50 catches 483-690 yards 3-5TD
Thomas
2007 15-20 catches 180-240 yards 0-1TD
2008 15-20 catches 180-240 yards 0-1TD
2009 15-20 catches 180-240 yards 0-1TD
Note TE receptions is not inflated based off of 2006 when the Pats had limited WR options. It is however based on the last 3 year average of 63 for TEs that includes 2006 as both primary TEs are still young and big parts of the offense.
Other recievers (WR/HBACK/TE)
2007 30 catches 300 yards
2008 30 catches 300 yards
2009 30 catches 300 yards
If you want to see team total numbers and other info behind this send PM and I can send you the excell file.
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