The Colts site 18to88.com has what I think is an insightful view of week 1 for the AFC contenders.
Link
What is most relevant based on this game is this, which is what I thought was going to happen this season:
New England fans should get used to more games like last night. We've seen it in Indianapolis. Teams aren't going to let you fly up and down the field. Prepare for long mind numbing drives with lots of 5 yard dump throws, while you hope your defense can hold up. Teams don't want to "die quick".
This is why I thought many were way too excited about the 3rd pre-season game when Moss was single-covered by the Redskins - and thought that is how Ds will play the Pats in regular season games. Not going to be the case most weeks. Colts fans have seen this for years since 2005. Most teams would rather die by 1000 paper cuts than by a few deep knife cuts.
I think that's reasonable, although I would say that the big thing last night was that Brady's timing was off, especially early. There were a few passes where it was obvious. Welker uncharacteristically dropping a couple passes early, and drawing Brady's ire midway through the game when he took a step out and Brady threw it low and in on a quick slant that was supposed to catch him in stride over the middle. Maroney coming to an almost complete stop so he could catch a ball over the middle as he ran left to right, and getting stopped for a short gain when he had a chance for a first down or more. Moss stopping and jumping for a ball on a WR screen, picking up two on what looked like a well designed play. The Schoebel interception was just a great play on defense, but it was also one that Brady usually avoids.
It's hard to knock a 378 yard, 2 TD, 1 INT performance where he led two comeback drives in the final six minutes, but we really didn't see Brady's best stuff. And part of that is that he never took a serious shot upfield to a wide receiver. The closest he came was throwing deep over the middle to Watson, and only then because Moss and Welker were getting smothered.
There's also the Moss factor - as good as Harrison was, nobody has ever been quite as good as Randy Moss on the deep ball. He took advantage of the cushion the Bills gave him to the tune of a dozen receptions. That's the poison that Jauron picked. The Jets may pick a different one next week. If teams continue to try to force the Pats out of the deep ball, they can still force it to Moss.
Another important thing is the Pats defense. They really only let up 17 points (you can't hold the Schoebel TD against the D) but they lost arguably their two best players in Seymour and Mayo in the last week, as well as long time contributors in Bruschi and Vrabel this offseason. I thought the secondary looked fine - Meriweather was all over the field, Bodden had a nice play or two, and they held Owens and Evans in check for most of the game, so I can't complain. But right now, the defense isn't dictating anything to anyone, and seemed to struggle on recognition. We'll see if there's anyone who can step in as the captain of the D without messing up their own assignments. But you know that Belichick wants to jump ahead on teams early and try to make them one dimensional - especially a team with a good D, a rookie QB and a good stable of backs like the Jets next week. It's going to be interesting to see if Brady can shake the rest of the rust off next week against the Jets, on a short practice week, against a defense that shut down Houston and adds a quality player back. It'll be a good guage of where this team is. I'd expect a deep pass or two early since they didn't show anything like it this week against the Bills.
