pats rookies -- spikes + cunningham (1 Viewer)

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I am already psyched for the season to start --- can you guys tell me how incredibly awesome these guys are?

 

[JOBOOZOSO]

Historical Data

Third Season Players:

Players drafted in the second round, 2006 – 2009: 19

63% chance of owning a starter (12 players)

Rookies:

Players drafted in the second round, 2006 – 2009: 15

27% chance at drafting a starter (4 players)

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

what is the 19 and 15 sample size?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Incredibly awesome?

I like Brandon Spikes a lot and have argued that it's safe to all but ignore his 40 time because his instincts and playing speed are so much better. In NFL terms, I think he can be a very good SILB and possibly grow into an every-down threat that has a James Farrior like impact in coverage and pass rush.

On the other hand, I think Jermaine Cunningham has a long way to go to succeed as a situational rusher, much less an all-around OLB threat.

In IDP terms, Spikes has to play every-down to have much value, then prove his playing speed and instincts translate well enough that he can overcome any range issues his speed may cause. I'm not sure I ever see Cunningham having any value.

 

[JOBOOZOSO]

Historical Data

Third Season Players:

Players drafted in the second round, 2006 – 2009: 19

63% chance of owning a starter (12 players)

Rookies:

Players drafted in the second round, 2006 – 2009: 15

27% chance at drafting a starter (4 players)

There were a total of 19 LBs between 06-09 that were in their 3rd season, who were drafted in the second round.There were 15 rookie LB between 06-09 that were drafted in the second round.

The percentages show how likely it is for those players to become fantasy starters.

 

[Cassius]

Historical Data

Third Season Players:

Players drafted in the second round, 2006 – 2009: 19

63% chance of owning a starter (12 players)

Rookies:

Players drafted in the second round, 2006 – 2009: 15

27% chance at drafting a starter (4 players)

There were a total of 19 LBs between 06-09 that were in their 3rd season, who were drafted in the second round.There were 15 rookie LB between 06-09 that were drafted in the second round.

The percentages show how likely it is for those players to become fantasy starters.

Do you have any historical date bigger than this small sample size? Or any historical data showing that the number of seasons they played is even the most important factor?

 

[JOBOOZOSO]

Nope. I only have the past 4 seasons.

Plus the game changes so much, I don't think we'd want anything larger. But that had nothing to do with the sample size - I just stopped after four years.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Incredibly awesome?I like Brandon Spikes a lot and have argued that it's safe to all but ignore his 40 time because his instincts and playing speed are so much better. In NFL terms, I think he can be a very good SILB and possibly grow into an every-down threat that has a James Farrior like impact in coverage and pass rush.On the other hand, I think Jermaine Cunningham has a long way to go to succeed as a situational rusher, much less an all-around OLB threat.In IDP terms, Spikes has to play every-down to have much value, then prove his playing speed and instincts translate well enough that he can overcome any range issues his speed may cause. I'm not sure I ever see Cunningham having any value.

oh, I meant just as football players.I'm excited about this pats defense.

 

[Drop]

Who is the better player Spikes or Guyton?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

well, to be fair to guyton, he's played in the nfl and spikes hasn't, but I'm going to predict spikes as eventually passing him up.

I think that dude will be awesome.

generally speaking, the 2nd round guy is more promising than the udfa.

 

[Adebisi]

they had to take Mayo early at #10 overall in '08 to even land a decent one (who has under produced nfl-wise for such a lofty pick)

Mayo was the Defensive Rookie of the Year in his first season and struggled through injuries in his second season, in part because he came back earlier than he probably should have. I'm not sure it's fair to say that he's "under-produced."The rest of your point stands though. When's the last time the Pats drafted a good LB? Bruschi?

 

[JOBOOZOSO]

And hows it stack up when looking at 3-4 players/teams as compared to 4-3 players/teams?Im guessing its even worse odds.

I didn't separate between 3-4 and 4-3 schemes. However, the Excel report is now posted, so you can go through it manually.Off the top of my head, I'd say the scheme won't matter that much.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Not sure how much I trust the Pats at drafting LBs.Going back to 1997 its been pretty horrendous, they had to take Mayo early at #10 overall in '08 to even land a decent one (who has under produced nfl-wise for such a lofty pick)... otherwise...3b Tyrone McKenzie 97 LB South Florida3 Shawn Crable 78 LB Michigan6 Bo Ruud 197 LB Nebraska6a Justin Rogers 180 LB Southern Methodist7 Oscar Lua 211 LB Southern California6a Jeremy Mincey 191 LB Florida5 Ryan Claridge 170 LB Nevada-Las Vegas7b Tully Banta-Cain 239 LB California7b T.J. Turner 239 LB Michigan State7a Casey Tisdale 226 LB New Mexico1c Andy Katzenmoyer 28 LB Ohio State5 Ron Merkerson 145 LB Colorado5 Vernon Crawford 159 LB Florida StateThey may actually be better off going the UDFA and FA route.

mayo was droy, the next couple guys on your list have been hurt.after that there are 7 guys from the 6th and 7th, and 3 bottom 5th.what's your point?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

He had better been the droy... picked at #10

where was vernon gholston picked?