What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Perfect Draft - 12 Teams (1 Viewer)

Very interesting read, but I'm confused. The perfect draft says don't a a top QB especially Brady, but VBD says Brady has the best value? Is it because of my league's scoring or is it something else?

 
drm1125 said:
Very interesting read, but I'm confused. The perfect draft says don't a a top QB especially Brady, but VBD says Brady has the best value? Is it because of my league's scoring or is it something else?
Click to expand...
It's possible Brady grades out tops if passing TDs = 6 points, etc. He even grades out well at 4pts per TD against my projections. I don't think I specifically said to not take Brady (please read that section again).
 
If you have no preference after the auction version, could you do the 14-teamer after that one?

(14-team draft on Sunday)

Thanks for doing these, btw.

 
Dave, something I noticed when plotting out projections (yours) this year was that QB, RB, and WR all follow a very similar curve. In years past, as you mentioned in so many words in the article, the RB curve was a much steeper decline, and the QB curve much flatter. Did you notice this at all during your research? Do you believe it has an effect on strategy? In a vacuum, it seems to promote a more BPA type of flow, rather than a VBD flow. Of course, like your article says, it still creates pockets of value by virtue of how most people draft (zig when they zag, essentially).

Let me know if I'm typing jibberish.

 
Dodge said:
That is one awesome article.I can't wait for the 10 man version.
Click to expand...
I can't wait past Friday, anyway. (hint... hint... ) :goodposting:
drm1125 said:
Very interesting read, but I'm confused. The perfect draft says don't a a top QB especially Brady, but VBD says Brady has the best value? Is it because of my league's scoring or is it something else?
Click to expand...
My DD does that, too - but you can't just blindly take whoever the DD tells you is the "best value." Pretty much every time I've run a mock draft where I take one of the top 4 QBs, I end up with a weaker team than when I wait and load up on RB and WR. Run some mocks and then decide what you're best off doing.
 
This is one of the "must read" articles every year. In fact, in years where I don't have much time, I read the perfect draft, download VBD app, and that is it - and I do just fine....

 
Super article. I look forward to this every year. I have one question though:

I have always bought in to the "wait on the QB strategy" and have implemented it every year with much success. But this year it seems to me that there is a huge dropoff after Romo/Brees. Our league is a 12-team PPR league WHERE THE QB GETS 6 POINTS PER PASSING TD.

In a league with those scoring rules, would you consider deviating from that strategy this year by taking a QB earlier (realistically that means grabbing Brady/Manning in Round 1 or Romo/Brees no later than Round 3)?

 
How do we find this via links at the site? In other words, had I not seen this posting how would I have found this article? I do not see it listed in the articles section, so I assume it is some where else.

 
bryhamm said:
How do we find this via links at the site? In other words, had I not seen this posting how would I have found this article? I do not see it listed in the articles section, so I assume it is some where else.
Click to expand...
I always post everything first at the main page (http://footballguys.com) on the right under latest info. I then get the articles page and subscribers page caught up after a few days
 
bryhamm said:
How do we find this via links at the site? In other words, had I not seen this posting how would I have found this article? I do not see it listed in the articles section, so I assume it is some where else.
Click to expand...
Listed on the home page in the latest section for me. Has the dollar sign after it indicating subscriber content. Since I'm a subscriber I had no problem accessing it.Listed like this:Perfect Draft (12 Teams) - Dodds - 8/13 $
 
bryhamm said:
How do we find this via links at the site? In other words, had I not seen this posting how would I have found this article? I do not see it listed in the articles section, so I assume it is some where else.
Click to expand...
that, BTW, is a money avatarcarry on!:goodposting:auction info
 
I don't agree totally with what you are saying David, however before I comment on anything I want to say that I look forward to this article so much...easliy a top5 for me DD...you give folks that never look at all the updates we do in the off season, and you make it almost idiot proof for someone to sit down at a draft and do reasonable well, no matter what their level of interest/expertise...which on one hand irritates the heck out of me, but it needs a huge round of thunderous applause for thinking this up in the 1st place.

Great stuff DD, I'll post more comments, but i am only thru the QBs so far.

Romo, Brees, and Brady are not a reach, it's just you don't want them where you have to take them. All of them should be in the 50-100 rnage for VBD.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
NICELY DONE DD !! This article, regardless, makes the average drafter above average if they follow it. That sucks if you're a shark...

This strategy looks sound. Glad you included Cotchery and Favre on your lists, but I didn't see T Jones or Coles.

As for me, I just gotta get Romo, Peyton, Brees or Brady this year. The depth at all positions appear to me, to be exceptional this year all around. If it's not one of those 4, I'm grabbing a stud TE.

 
Love the article, but kinda tired of not getting a better QB. I've been really hurt by later-round dregs the past 3 years, and the QBBC only seems to work on paper for me.

 
PumpusX said:
Love the article, but kinda tired of not getting a better QB. I've been really hurt by later-round dregs the past 3 years, and the QBBC only seems to work on paper for me.
Click to expand...
There are different degrees of QBBC, and I take a hybrid approach to it. If it doesn't pan out, and it usually doesn't that I secure a top5 "projection" QB, then I do what many others do and grab QBs back to back in rounds 7-10...sometimes it's 7-8th round, maybe 9-10th, whatever is happening I just go with the flow in the drafts. I am in a 64 team Fall madness league, broken into 16 teams per bracket sort of speak...waited until the niddle of the 7th(16 teams though), and I went Schaub in the 7th and Rodgers in the 8th...and I really triggered the QB run as I had the 7.09, and 8.08 pick...about 8 QBs went between those 2 picks. Now I didn't go QBBC, but I took 2 guys I felt had huge upside, I still might take Rosenfels at some point, but I like what I came away with. Chase's theory of taking Garcia, TJax, and Jason Campbell IIRC is interesting to talk about on the message boards, but I couldn't build my team in good faith around that. What I like about Rodgers is he has a ton of talent around him. Schaub was tearing it up pretty good at the start of the year last season, 2nd year in the system, I feel like we haven't seen what he can do over a whole season. It would really be a good idea if you can identify 2-3 QBs you actually like form the 8-20 crowd in projection/ranking and build around that. Don't just assume they are all the same because a few sites and mags say so. I promise you someone from the 8-20 crowd is going ot post top5 numbers this year and take the FF community by storm. Who has the tools around them to make it happen? Short list if you look closely.
 
I am working on the Perfect 10 right now and will post it before Thursday morning. I plan to have them all done by Friday

 
ozman said:
...any news on other "perfect drafts"?
Click to expand...
I'll be submitting my Analytically Perfect Auction Draft to Pasquino soon...Not for the math challenged...This will be the name of the article:"Taking Auction Drafts to the next level: Auction Budget Optimization Using Genetic Algorithms to Maximize the number of projected points in a season"

Rod G

 
Last edited by a moderator:
David - Any news on when the 14-team "Perfect Draft" article will be out? Any chance it will be out by Thursday?? Those articles are fantastic.

 
Without asking DD to write a new article for Super Flex leagues (start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Super Flex (QB, RB, or WR)) I am interested in what some of the guys that regularly devour the Dodd's "perfect draft" approach think this dynamic does to the strategy?

I pick 4th in a 12 team league this year (PPR for WRs, high perf scoring but 4 pts per TD pass) and I conclude that Brady is a must draft at this slot based upon the extrapolated "perfect draft" tenents. However, I can't seem to convince myself to follow through on it (versus taking either Westbrook or S-Jax).

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Scoresman
Trying a slightly new strategy for my auction league
Replies
9
Views
2K
Ack88
A
Hooper31
Grade your team's draft from 2022
Replies
16
Views
706
Terpman22
Terpman22
T
Official #12 Pick Strategy Discussion (Redraft, PPR or HPPR, 12 Teams)
Replies
4
Views
2K
The Dude
T

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top