Peterson v Lacy - The Redraft Throwdown (1 Viewer)

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

I can't hand the reigns over to Lacy until I see how Peterson plays in a Norv Turner offense. This could be APs 2nd best season ever, and I see his receptions going up.

Lacy will get his time at the top. But it's not time yet

 

[Portis Homer]

He's passing it off as a who do I draft at 1.03 when Charles and McCoy are gone question in a shark pool thread. Not sure how anyone would expect that he get serious answers.

Actually SHOCKED it took this long.

Because ya, this isnt a legit question and debate as you can see by the monotony of this thread. totally one sided.

move along.

lol, the Shark Pool police was trying to let us know how people should respond to a thread that shouldn't even be in the Shark Pool.And I answered your question. If you look at Tomlinson's production w Turner at similar stages in career as ADP, I think you are a fool to pass up that combination.

The Shark Pool, since I came here in 2004, is filled with comparisons between two players with similar ADPs during draft time. I don't feel like this is a WDIS thread.You're ignoring the fact Turner had Philip Rivers in the prime of his career alongside Vincent Jackson, rather than Matt Cassel. It is not the same situation. No one who slightly prefers Lacy in GB vs Peterson in Minny is a fool.

That's a strange argument considering Lacy didn't play with his elite QB half of last season and still fared okay. Why is it that can be ignored but ADP can't be successful without a household QB name even with his proven track record? He ran for over 2000 yards in 2012 after a serious knee injury with Christian Ponder as QB and added another 4.5 average in their lone Wild Card game with Joe Webb behind center. If it is anyone who has proven he can be the workhorse on a team with or without surrounding offensive talent, it's ADP.

1) You specifically referenced using LT's production with Norv as a baseline for AP this year, I'm pointing out that baseline included an Elite QB, great WR, and one of the greatest pass catching TEs of all time. He's getting Norv, but not elite pieces around him so TD breaking seasons in my opinion are not a good baseline.

I've never said he won't have a good year despite the poor offense. I have said I have him neck and neck as my RB3 and am breaking a tie. I clearly think he'll have a good year.

2) You lose me on the know Rodgers point. I'm not giving Lacy credit for his time without Rodgers. My whole argument is like him BECAUSE of the Rodgers led offense. Without Rodgers, I wouldn't even have Lacy in the discussion for RB3.

 

[Chaka]

What I am typing likely means #### nothing but I'm throwing it out there anyway.

In 6 complete games with Rodgers (so week 1, 2 & 8 are not included) Lacy went 139/542/3 (3.9 ypc, 0.5 TD/game)

In 8 complete games without Rodgers (including week 8 where Rodgers went out on the third play of the game) Lacy went 151/666/7 (4.4 ypc 0.875 TD/game)

He also improved from 4.4 ypr with Rodgers to 7.8 ypr without Rodgers.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I honestly thought this was a mock/joke thread and I'm honestly shocked that the majority agree with Soulfly. Man, I wish all of you who are in the pro-Lacy camp would join my leagues.

When picking a RB in the top 7 picks, my primary goal is to select the guy who has the HIGHEST PROBABILITY of finishing top 5 on the year. Adrian Peterson is my #1 pick in a redraft ppr league. In fact, just last night I had the #1 in a Draftmaster league and it was a no-brainer for me to select AP.

A few of you have mentioned that AP and Lacy are in equal tiers... they both have similar floors and similar ceilings. Some even pounding the desk that LACY has the higher ceiling!!

Really, folks? REALLY??!! AP is worlds apart from Lacy from an athletic standpoint. It's not even close. It's so lop-sided I'm not even going to post the stats to back it because it's a waste of time.

So, purely from an athletic standpoint, AP has the much higher ceiling.

AP is the best RB drafted in the last 10 years. Yes, he is 29 this year but his skills are not diminishing yet. AP has a 2,000 yard season on his resume. AP did have his worst season as a pro last season (not counting his injury season) but I think it's obvious it was the coaching/surrounding cast that played a major role in his down season. I fully expect a bounce-back season for AP with Norv Turner now running the offense and with Cassel or Bridgewater as the starters (no more Ponder).

I want to go on record as predicting that this comparison will not be close by the time the season is over (barring injury to either, of course). In fact, I also want to predict a disappointing year for Lacy. I'm projecting Lacy to end up outside of the top 10 while AP will be firmly inside the top 5 RBs this season.

Slice it any way you like, but AP is the proven ELITE RB of these two and he is still under 30 years old. AP might be in that rare breed of a Curtis Martin or Emmitt Smith - elite players who did play well after 30. Regardless of that, I'm CERTAIN that AP has at least 1 elite season left in his tank and every Lacy fan in this thread will be kicking themselves come December for trying to out-smart basic logic.

I would have a different argument if we were talking about a player like Jamaal Charles who DOES have elite athleticism. Eddie Lacy is the definition of JAG who is in an IDEAL situation. If everything doesn't lineup perfectly, Lacy's production will suffer immensely. AP can thrive even with 3rd tier talent at QB and O-line. Lacy cannot. If Rodgers were to get injured.... guess what? Lacy isn't going to be a reliable RB1 for your fantasy team.

These are all things to consider. IF everything goes according to plan for the Packers (no injuries to Rodgers, the O-line or key WRs), then Lacy has a chance to be in the top 10 RBs. Even with all things lining up perfectly, it will be a challenge for Lacy to justify his top 5 pick (in fantasy). If nothing goes right for the Vikings (Cassel sucks, Bridgewater sucks, O-line gets injured....) but AP remains healthy, he still has a very good chance to justify his top 5 pick.

Don't out-think yourselves fellow FBGers. This is an easy debate.

there is too much hyperbole and bad information in this post for me. I fundamentally disagree with everything you've posted here with the exception of ADP being the best RB of the past 10 years. Did you even play FFB last year?

If Rodgers were to get injured.... guess what? Lacy isn't going to be a reliable RB1 for your fantasy team

Rodgers DID get injured-from week 10-16 he was out. During that time Lacy averaged 114 yfs, 3 receptions and .86 TD's per game. WTF are you talking about?

IF everything goes according to plan for the Packers (no injuries to Rodgers, the O-line or key WRs), then Lacy has a chance to be in the top 10 RBs.

Nothing went to plan for the Packers last year. They were decimated by injuries to their QB, WR's, TE. Hell even Lacy missed two games due to concussion. And he still finished as RB8.

To each his own, but damn, that's a lot of words to really say nothing.

ETA:

The problem with using last years' stats to project for THIS year is exactly that.... we are talking about last season.

0-2

You got me there (on your first points). I did play FF last season but only had 1 Packer (Jordy) and I totally forgot Rodgers got injured. So I will admit my faults there.

My only point, really, is that AP is a proven elite RB with elite athleticism while Lacy is unproven for the most part and has below-average athleticism for a RB. With only one season under his belt, it's completely premature to compare AP and Lacy as equals. Again, you bring up valid criticism in my post. It was a lazy attempt by me to prove my opinion on the matter. I will take a "loss" on that argument.

As for point #2 - we will have to agree to disagree. Last season has nothing to do with this season. NOW, if we were to compare several seasons with each other, that's a more relevant data set. In this argument, however, showing similar stats for 2 players from one season, proves nothing when trying to forecast 2014. AP had a down year, in fact his worst season as a pro. Last season was either AP showing his age (I don't think that's the case) or an anomaly. I believe his poor season was due to a variety of factors but still, even in a "down" season, he produced starter-worthy stats.

I'm calling it 1-1.

 

[12punch]

What I am typing likely means #### nothing but I'm throwing it out there anyway.

In 6 complete games with Rodgers (so week 1, 2 & 8 are not included) Lacy went 139/542/3 (3.9 ypc, 0.5 TD/game)

In 8 complete games without Rodgers (including week 8 where Rodgers went out on the third play of the game) Lacy went 151/666/7 (4.4 ypc 0.875 TD/game)

He also improved from 4.4 ypr with Rodgers to 7.8 ypr without Rodgers.

fitting theory to data can be a pretty ### backwards procedure, but he did have a chi and a dal in the anti-rodgers sample, and those were 2 of the worst run defenses in years, probably -- that mmight be your ypc differential.

to be fair, he actually had another chi in the pro-rodgers sample in wk 17, but didn't fare as well.

the td differential doesn't really surprise me, as I was always kind of negative on gb backs, my perception being that rodgers would throw it into the endzone.

so, I guess you could look at those kind of %'s

 

[Shutout]

I'm happy with either one. Gun to my head I am very excited to see what Norv & Peterson can accomplish together.

How excited were you about norv and trich before last season?I get the idea of never bet against AP but when you have two guys with little difference in production, why drive the Beemer with 80,000 miles on it down a dirt road when you can drive the one with 3,000 miles on it that is on an interstate? The packers will score twice as many points as the vikes. Some of that will go to lacy. Whatever happened to considering low miles, opportunity, and surrounding cast? Can norv really balance all that?

 

[Chaka]

I'm happy with either one. Gun to my head I am very excited to see what Norv & Peterson can accomplish together.

How excited were you about norv and trich before last season?I get the idea of never bet against AP but when you have two guys with little difference in production, why drive the Beemer with 80,000 miles on it down a dirt road when you can drive the one with 3,000 miles on it that is on an interstate? The packers will score twice as many points as the vikes. Some of that will go to lacy. Whatever happened to considering low miles, opportunity, and surrounding cast? Can norv really balance all that?

It's hard to say since Norv and TRich only had two games together but I will stand by what Norv has historically done with his RBs and continue to be excited by the pairing of Norv and Peterson.

Norv did pretty well with his QB/RB combos without Aikman or Rivers:

Gus Frerotte & Terry Allen

Brad Johnson & Terry Allen

Brad Johnson and Stephen Davis

Kerry Collins and Lamont Jordan

Doug Flutie and LaDanian Tomlinson

Jay Fiedler & Ricky Williams

Brian Griese and Ricky Williams

Alex Smith and Frank Gore

 

[Chaka]

I definitely like Lacy a lot (my #4 RB) but there are some blemishes, first being his rather pedestrian YPC and YPR numbers from last season. Another is McCarthy's history of favoring the pass in the red zone.

You can't make either complaint about Peterson and while I agree that the wheels have to fall off at some point why do you believe this is that point?

 

[tjnc09]

I definitely like Lacy a lot (my #4 RB) but there are some blemishes, first being his rather pedestrian YPC and YPR numbers from last season. Another is McCarthy's history of favoring the pass in the red zone.

You can't make either complaint about Peterson and while I agree that the wheels have to fall off at some point why do you believe this is that point?

Rodgers also had 18 rushing TDs from 2008-2012. He's not afraid to sneak it himself. He didn't have any last year largely due to missing half of the season, but also Lacy being a presence in the RZ and obviously randomness.

 

[tjnc09]

I'm happy with either one. Gun to my head I am very excited to see what Norv & Peterson can accomplish together.

How excited were you about norv and trich before last season?I get the idea of never bet against AP but when you have two guys with little difference in production, why drive the Beemer with 80,000 miles on it down a dirt road when you can drive the one with 3,000 miles on it that is on an interstate? The packers will score twice as many points as the vikes. Some of that will go to lacy. Whatever happened to considering low miles, opportunity, and surrounding cast? Can norv really balance all that?

Somehow I don't think Trent Richardson is the same caliber player as ADP.

 

[Leonidas]

I honestly thought this was a mock/joke thread and I'm honestly shocked that the majority agree with Soulfly. Man, I wish all of you who are in the pro-Lacy camp would join my leagues.

This is why I just lurk and almost never post. Anyone spending their day looking at the Shark Pool is more than competent at fantasy football, and even if you disagree with their opinion, it doesn't make them stupid or their opinion wrong. Every year, multiple conventional opinions turn out wrong, it doesn't make people who believed them stupid. Every year, multiple unconventional opinions turn out correct.

The "I wish all of you who are in the pro-Lacy camp would join my leagues" is so condescending and un warranted.

Good post

 

[12punch]

still peterson

 

[Biabreakable]

He's passing it off as a who do I draft at 1.03 when Charles and McCoy are gone question in a shark pool thread. Not sure how anyone would expect that he get serious answers.

Actually SHOCKED it took this long.

Because ya, this isnt a legit question and debate as you can see by the monotony of this thread. totally one sided.

move along.

lol, the Shark Pool police was trying to let us know how people should respond to a thread that shouldn't even be in the Shark Pool.And I answered your question. If you look at Tomlinson's production w Turner at similar stages in career as ADP, I think you are a fool to pass up that combination.

The Shark Pool, since I came here in 2004, is filled with comparisons between two players with similar ADPs during draft time. I don't feel like this is a WDIS thread.You're ignoring the fact Turner had Philip Rivers in the prime of his career alongside Vincent Jackson, rather than Matt Cassel. It is not the same situation. No one who slightly prefers Lacy in GB vs Peterson in Minny is a fool.

That's a strange argument considering Lacy didn't play with his elite QB half of last season and still fared okay. Why is it that can be ignored but ADP can't be successful without a household QB name even with his proven track record? He ran for over 2000 yards in 2012 after a serious knee injury with Christian Ponder as QB and added another 4.5 average in their lone Wild Card game with Joe Webb behind center. If it is anyone who has proven he can be the workhorse on a team with or without surrounding offensive talent, it's ADP.

1) You specifically referenced using LT's production with Norv as a baseline for AP this year, I'm pointing out that baseline included an Elite QB, great WR, and one of the greatest pass catching TEs of all time. He's getting Norv, but not elite pieces around him so TD breaking seasons in my opinion are not a good baseline.

I've never said he won't have a good year despite the poor offense. I have said I have him neck and neck as my RB3 and am breaking a tie. I clearly think he'll have a good year.

2) You lose me on the know Rodgers point. I'm not giving Lacy credit for his time without Rodgers. My whole argument is like him BECAUSE of the Rodgers led offense. Without Rodgers, I wouldn't even have Lacy in the discussion for RB3.

I would suggest you take a closer look at the supporting cast around Peterson now. I do not think calling the Vikings offense poor is an accurate description.

 

[Shutout]

I'm happy with either one. Gun to my head I am very excited to see what Norv & Peterson can accomplish together.

How excited were you about norv and trich before last season?I get the idea of never bet against AP but when you have two guys with little difference in production, why drive the Beemer with 80,000 miles on it down a dirt road when you can drive the one with 3,000 miles on it that is on an interstate? The packers will score twice as many points as the vikes. Some of that will go to lacy. Whatever happened to considering low miles, opportunity, and surrounding cast? Can norv really balance all that?

Somehow I don't think Trent Richardson is the same caliber player as ADP.

Agree but the point is, go back and look last year at all the mindthink on this last year. There were threads upon threads of people drooling over what Norv+TRICH was going to do.

My point in the whole thing was just saying "definitely possible but not an absolute given" and, with two great choices where it doesn't look like anyone is going to be "wrong" either way, I think I will just choose the younger guy. They are so similar in ff that its picking nits so when they both are checking the same boxes, the only real difference I see is that it is more conceivable that Peterson might become mortal and show age due to wear and tear and age.

 

[Shutout]

He's passing it off as a who do I draft at 1.03 when Charles and McCoy are gone question in a shark pool thread. Not sure how anyone would expect that he get serious answers.

Actually SHOCKED it took this long.

Because ya, this isnt a legit question and debate as you can see by the monotony of this thread. totally one sided.

move along.

lol, the Shark Pool police was trying to let us know how people should respond to a thread that shouldn't even be in the Shark Pool.And I answered your question. If you look at Tomlinson's production w Turner at similar stages in career as ADP, I think you are a fool to pass up that combination.

The Shark Pool, since I came here in 2004, is filled with comparisons between two players with similar ADPs during draft time. I don't feel like this is a WDIS thread.You're ignoring the fact Turner had Philip Rivers in the prime of his career alongside Vincent Jackson, rather than Matt Cassel. It is not the same situation. No one who slightly prefers Lacy in GB vs Peterson in Minny is a fool.

That's a strange argument considering Lacy didn't play with his elite QB half of last season and still fared okay. Why is it that can be ignored but ADP can't be successful without a household QB name even with his proven track record? He ran for over 2000 yards in 2012 after a serious knee injury with Christian Ponder as QB and added another 4.5 average in their lone Wild Card game with Joe Webb behind center. If it is anyone who has proven he can be the workhorse on a team with or without surrounding offensive talent, it's ADP.

1) You specifically referenced using LT's production with Norv as a baseline for AP this year, I'm pointing out that baseline included an Elite QB, great WR, and one of the greatest pass catching TEs of all time. He's getting Norv, but not elite pieces around him so TD breaking seasons in my opinion are not a good baseline.

I've never said he won't have a good year despite the poor offense. I have said I have him neck and neck as my RB3 and am breaking a tie. I clearly think he'll have a good year.

2) You lose me on the know Rodgers point. I'm not giving Lacy credit for his time without Rodgers. My whole argument is like him BECAUSE of the Rodgers led offense. Without Rodgers, I wouldn't even have Lacy in the discussion for RB3.

I would suggest you take a closer look at the supporting cast around Peterson now. I do not think calling the Vikings offense poor is an accurate description.

In the NFL, its starts and ends with a franchise QB. The Packers have one, Minnesota doesn't. That is it...period. Yeah, we can say one team has Patterson and a nice TE and all that but c/mon. Rodgers, Cobb, Nelson, Finley (maybe). There is no comparison.

 

[Shutout]

I definitely like Lacy a lot (my #4 RB) but there are some blemishes, first being his rather pedestrian YPC and YPR numbers from last season. Another is McCarthy's history of favoring the pass in the red zone.

You can't make either complaint about Peterson and while I agree that the wheels have to fall off at some point why do you believe this is that point?

Rodgers also had 18 rushing TDs from 2008-2012. He's not afraid to sneak it himself. He didn't have any last year largely due to missing half of the season, but also Lacy being a presence in the RZ and obviously randomness.

My thought that comes from that is: Now that they have Lacy AND now that Rodgers has had a significant injury and is getting closer to 30, do the Packers say "let's give it to the capable RB and save our franchise Qb?"

I think that's a legit question to where if you can see that being a solid line of thought, it could easily push Lacy into that rare 17-18 TD mark because you KNOW the packers are going to get their short goal to go chances during the season.

 

[Biabreakable]

He's passing it off as a who do I draft at 1.03 when Charles and McCoy are gone question in a shark pool thread. Not sure how anyone would expect that he get serious answers.

Actually SHOCKED it took this long.

Because ya, this isnt a legit question and debate as you can see by the monotony of this thread. totally one sided.

move along.

lol, the Shark Pool police was trying to let us know how people should respond to a thread that shouldn't even be in the Shark Pool.And I answered your question. If you look at Tomlinson's production w Turner at similar stages in career as ADP, I think you are a fool to pass up that combination.

The Shark Pool, since I came here in 2004, is filled with comparisons between two players with similar ADPs during draft time. I don't feel like this is a WDIS thread.You're ignoring the fact Turner had Philip Rivers in the prime of his career alongside Vincent Jackson, rather than Matt Cassel. It is not the same situation. No one who slightly prefers Lacy in GB vs Peterson in Minny is a fool.

That's a strange argument considering Lacy didn't play with his elite QB half of last season and still fared okay. Why is it that can be ignored but ADP can't be successful without a household QB name even with his proven track record? He ran for over 2000 yards in 2012 after a serious knee injury with Christian Ponder as QB and added another 4.5 average in their lone Wild Card game with Joe Webb behind center. If it is anyone who has proven he can be the workhorse on a team with or without surrounding offensive talent, it's ADP.

1) You specifically referenced using LT's production with Norv as a baseline for AP this year, I'm pointing out that baseline included an Elite QB, great WR, and one of the greatest pass catching TEs of all time. He's getting Norv, but not elite pieces around him so TD breaking seasons in my opinion are not a good baseline.

I've never said he won't have a good year despite the poor offense. I have said I have him neck and neck as my RB3 and am breaking a tie. I clearly think he'll have a good year.

2) You lose me on the know Rodgers point. I'm not giving Lacy credit for his time without Rodgers. My whole argument is like him BECAUSE of the Rodgers led offense. Without Rodgers, I wouldn't even have Lacy in the discussion for RB3.

I would suggest you take a closer look at the supporting cast around Peterson now. I do not think calling the Vikings offense poor is an accurate description.

In the NFL, its starts and ends with a franchise QB. The Packers have one, Minnesota doesn't. That is it...period. Yeah, we can say one team has Patterson and a nice TE and all that but c/mon. Rodgers, Cobb, Nelson, Finley (maybe). There is no comparison.

You forgot the offensive line which is better than what the Packers have. Greg Jennings is very good as well.

The Vikings did get Teddy Bridgewater and everything is set up very well for any QB to be able to thrive in this offense.

To say there is no comparison solely because of the QB is short sighted at best.

 

[Shutout]

He's passing it off as a who do I draft at 1.03 when Charles and McCoy are gone question in a shark pool thread. Not sure how anyone would expect that he get serious answers.

Actually SHOCKED it took this long.

Because ya, this isnt a legit question and debate as you can see by the monotony of this thread. totally one sided.

move along.

lol, the Shark Pool police was trying to let us know how people should respond to a thread that shouldn't even be in the Shark Pool.And I answered your question. If you look at Tomlinson's production w Turner at similar stages in career as ADP, I think you are a fool to pass up that combination.

The Shark Pool, since I came here in 2004, is filled with comparisons between two players with similar ADPs during draft time. I don't feel like this is a WDIS thread.You're ignoring the fact Turner had Philip Rivers in the prime of his career alongside Vincent Jackson, rather than Matt Cassel. It is not the same situation. No one who slightly prefers Lacy in GB vs Peterson in Minny is a fool.

That's a strange argument considering Lacy didn't play with his elite QB half of last season and still fared okay. Why is it that can be ignored but ADP can't be successful without a household QB name even with his proven track record? He ran for over 2000 yards in 2012 after a serious knee injury with Christian Ponder as QB and added another 4.5 average in their lone Wild Card game with Joe Webb behind center. If it is anyone who has proven he can be the workhorse on a team with or without surrounding offensive talent, it's ADP.

1) You specifically referenced using LT's production with Norv as a baseline for AP this year, I'm pointing out that baseline included an Elite QB, great WR, and one of the greatest pass catching TEs of all time. He's getting Norv, but not elite pieces around him so TD breaking seasons in my opinion are not a good baseline.

I've never said he won't have a good year despite the poor offense. I have said I have him neck and neck as my RB3 and am breaking a tie. I clearly think he'll have a good year.

2) You lose me on the know Rodgers point. I'm not giving Lacy credit for his time without Rodgers. My whole argument is like him BECAUSE of the Rodgers led offense. Without Rodgers, I wouldn't even have Lacy in the discussion for RB3.

I would suggest you take a closer look at the supporting cast around Peterson now. I do not think calling the Vikings offense poor is an accurate description.

In the NFL, its starts and ends with a franchise QB. The Packers have one, Minnesota doesn't. That is it...period. Yeah, we can say one team has Patterson and a nice TE and all that but c/mon. Rodgers, Cobb, Nelson, Finley (maybe). There is no comparison.

You forgot the offensive line which is better than what the Packers have. Greg Jennings is very good as well.

The Vikings did get Teddy Bridgewater and everything is set up very well for any QB to be able to thrive in this offense.

To say there is no comparison solely because of the QB is short sighted at best.

Ask any NFL GM. It starts with QB/left tackle/DE. That is where you build a team. In the NFL today, understand this if you understand nothing else: YOU CANNNOT WIN IN THIS LEAGUE WITHOUT A TOP QB. You can say all you want about an o-line and Greg Jennings, there is NOBODY on the Vikings at QB that makes an opponent limited in what they can do to stop Patterson in the same way as ANY wr out there Rodgers is throwing to.

Look at teams like the Chiefs and Texans. Why can't they be top teams and truly contend? Because they have no QB, despite great players, great defense, great lines (at times). NO QB. Look at teams like the Patriots, Steelers, Chargers? Why are they always in the discussion even when their lines look terrible or they are decimated by injuries? Great QBs.

 

[Archer]

AP redraft, Lacy Dynasty (obviously)

 

[Chaka]

He's passing it off as a who do I draft at 1.03 when Charles and McCoy are gone question in a shark pool thread. Not sure how anyone would expect that he get serious answers.

Actually SHOCKED it took this long.

Because ya, this isnt a legit question and debate as you can see by the monotony of this thread. totally one sided.

move along.

lol, the Shark Pool police was trying to let us know how people should respond to a thread that shouldn't even be in the Shark Pool.And I answered your question. If you look at Tomlinson's production w Turner at similar stages in career as ADP, I think you are a fool to pass up that combination.

The Shark Pool, since I came here in 2004, is filled with comparisons between two players with similar ADPs during draft time. I don't feel like this is a WDIS thread.You're ignoring the fact Turner had Philip Rivers in the prime of his career alongside Vincent Jackson, rather than Matt Cassel. It is not the same situation. No one who slightly prefers Lacy in GB vs Peterson in Minny is a fool.

That's a strange argument considering Lacy didn't play with his elite QB half of last season and still fared okay. Why is it that can be ignored but ADP can't be successful without a household QB name even with his proven track record? He ran for over 2000 yards in 2012 after a serious knee injury with Christian Ponder as QB and added another 4.5 average in their lone Wild Card game with Joe Webb behind center. If it is anyone who has proven he can be the workhorse on a team with or without surrounding offensive talent, it's ADP.

1) You specifically referenced using LT's production with Norv as a baseline for AP this year, I'm pointing out that baseline included an Elite QB, great WR, and one of the greatest pass catching TEs of all time. He's getting Norv, but not elite pieces around him so TD breaking seasons in my opinion are not a good baseline.

I've never said he won't have a good year despite the poor offense. I have said I have him neck and neck as my RB3 and am breaking a tie. I clearly think he'll have a good year.

2) You lose me on the know Rodgers point. I'm not giving Lacy credit for his time without Rodgers. My whole argument is like him BECAUSE of the Rodgers led offense. Without Rodgers, I wouldn't even have Lacy in the discussion for RB3.

I would suggest you take a closer look at the supporting cast around Peterson now. I do not think calling the Vikings offense poor is an accurate description.

In the NFL, its starts and ends with a franchise QB. The Packers have one, Minnesota doesn't. That is it...period. Yeah, we can say one team has Patterson and a nice TE and all that but c/mon. Rodgers, Cobb, Nelson, Finley (maybe). There is no comparison.

You forgot the offensive line which is better than what the Packers have. Greg Jennings is very good as well.

The Vikings did get Teddy Bridgewater and everything is set up very well for any QB to be able to thrive in this offense.

To say there is no comparison solely because of the QB is short sighted at best.

Ask any NFL GM. It starts with QB/left tackle/DE. That is where you build a team. In the NFL today, understand this if you understand nothing else: YOU CANNNOT WIN IN THIS LEAGUE WITHOUT A TOP QB. You can say all you want about an o-line and Greg Jennings, there is NOBODY on the Vikings at QB that makes an opponent limited in what they can do to stop Patterson in the same way as ANY wr out there Rodgers is throwing to.

Look at teams like the Chiefs and Texans. Why can't they be top teams and truly contend? Because they have no QB, despite great players, great defense, great lines (at times). NO QB. Look at teams like the Patriots, Steelers, Chargers? Why are they always in the discussion even when their lines look terrible or they are decimated by injuries? Great QBs.

Ask any fantasy GM. It starts with RB/WR/QB. That is where you build a team. In fantasy football today, understand this if you understand nothing else: FANTASY FOOTBALL <> THE NFL. You can say all you want about top tier QBs and supporting casts, there is LITTLE CORRELATION between top RBs and top QBs on the same team, go check Norv Turner's RB production with the likes of Gus Frerotte, Brad Johnson, Jay Fiedler, Kerry Collins, Brian Griese and Alex Smith if you don't believe me.

Look at teams like the Chiefs, they produced the #1 RB in fantasy football last season with Alex Smith as their starting QB. Who cares if they can't contend in the NFL? Because this is fantasy football. Look at teams like the Patriots, good luck finding the RB on their team that will lead you to a fantasy championship despite having a great QB.

And Joe Flacco, Eli Manning (x2), Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, Jeff Hostetler, Jim McMahon, Mark Rypien, Doug Williams, Jim Plunkett (x2) all won Super Bowls.

Heck I would argue that Terry Bradshaw as far from a top QB (particularly during the '74 & '75 Super Bowl seasons) but people would probably freak out.

 

[Chaka]

I'm happy with either one. Gun to my head I am very excited to see what Norv & Peterson can accomplish together.

How excited were you about norv and trich before last season?I get the idea of never bet against AP but when you have two guys with little difference in production, why drive the Beemer with 80,000 miles on it down a dirt road when you can drive the one with 3,000 miles on it that is on an interstate? The packers will score twice as many points as the vikes. Some of that will go to lacy. Whatever happened to considering low miles, opportunity, and surrounding cast? Can norv really balance all that?

Somehow I don't think Trent Richardson is the same caliber player as ADP.

Agree but the point is, go back and look last year at all the mindthink on this last year. There were threads upon threads of people drooling over what Norv+TRICH was going to do.

My point in the whole thing was just saying "definitely possible but not an absolute given" and, with two great choices where it doesn't look like anyone is going to be "wrong" either way, I think I will just choose the younger guy. They are so similar in ff that its picking nits so when they both are checking the same boxes, the only real difference I see is that it is more conceivable that Peterson might become mortal and show age due to wear and tear and age.

I find it a little amusing that you are using that argument to favor Lacy this year. The fact is that we have no idea what would have happened with a full season between Norv and Richardson. You seem to be content to suggest that the production in their only two games together (31 carries 101 yards, 7 receptions 51 yards) is exactly what would have happened all season. Extending that logic to Lacy after two games would have had people thinking he was an injury prone below average running back.

And this kind of seems like a thread of people drooling over what Lacy + Rodgers are going to do. If they do what they did together last season then people are going to be disappointed.

Like I said, I like Lacy a lot (#4 on my board) and I think you would be happy to land either one of him or Peterson. I can even see why people would be salivating over Lacy's upside but Peterson is has proven that he will produce no matter who his supporting cast is and he has as much upside as any RB in the league.

 

[Leonidas]

I find it a little amusing that you are using that argument to favor Lacy this year.

There were also tons and tons of people pointing to Richardson's efficiency and his reliance upon volume + 'goal line' looks for his fantasy production who swore off using a first round pick on the guy because they didn't buy the hype.

I was one of the guys who strongly avoided Richardson (and Foster, and Spiller).

I sure as hell don't see people lining up to tell us how inefficient and untalented Adrian Peterson is or how Peterson can only produce through huge volume and opportunity by the goal line.

I mean...I think I'm going to put anybody who compares Adrian Peterson this year with Richardson last year on ignore permanently.

 

[VaTerp]

I'll admit that when I first saw the thread title I thought it was off base but I'm just now digging into my rankings and realize i have Lacy too low and this is a legitimate question/discussion.

To me this is a great exercise in looking at talent vs situation. Peterson is one of the most talented RBs of this generation while Lacy plays in a much better offense that should provide more opportunity. It's also an exercise for the "proven vs unproven" argument where IMO people tend to be too conservative in their thinking. I remember being high on Andre Johnson going into one season and people arguing that he wasn't "proven." Nobody is proven until they are and in FF if you wait until everyone is "proven" you are going to miss the boat on some really productive seasons. Lacy and, to a greater extent, Ball are two unproven RBs that I am very high on this year.

At the end of the day though, I've learned to not bet against Peterson. This is a guy who has never had less than double digit TDs in his career despite playing with some pretty limited QBs and offenses, has a career 5.0 ypc average on over 2,000 rushes, and who just 2 years ago pulled off one of the greatest single season athletic feats (rushing for 2,000 yards coming off of a devastating late season knee injury) I've ever witnessed.

I do think Norv will help, particularly in the pass game where IMO Peterson has been underutilized for much of his career. He has shown the ability to be a 40+ catch RB and this year I think he returns to that. I like Lacy a lot this year and he does play in a much better offense that will provide ample opportunity to score FF points. But Peterson's talent will create it's own opportunities and I think he still has 2 or 3 elite years left in the tank. I would not pass on him for Lacy in redraft and would even consider taking him over the current consensus top 2 in Charles and McCoy.

 

[Chaka]

I definitely like Lacy a lot (my #4 RB) but there are some blemishes, first being his rather pedestrian YPC and YPR numbers from last season. Another is McCarthy's history of favoring the pass in the red zone.

You can't make either complaint about Peterson and while I agree that the wheels have to fall off at some point why do you believe this is that point?

Rodgers also had 18 rushing TDs from 2008-2012. He's not afraid to sneak it himself. He didn't have any last year largely due to missing half of the season, but also Lacy being a presence in the RZ and obviously randomness.

My thought that comes from that is: Now that they have Lacy AND now that Rodgers has had a significant injury and is getting closer to 30, do the Packers say "let's give it to the capable RB and save our franchise Qb?"

I think that's a legit question to where if you can see that being a solid line of thought, it could easily push Lacy into that rare 17-18 TD mark because you KNOW the packers are going to get their short goal to go chances during the season.

No RB in a Mike McCarthy coached offense has ever had 17 TDs. Deuce McCallister had by far the best RB season in a McCarthy offense in 2002 with 1,440 total yards and 16 total TDs. A great season to be sure and one that would put any back in the conversation with the top tier of RBs for a given season.

Here are McCarthy's 14 seasons as offensive coordinator or head coach:

2000 Ricky Williams 1,409 & 9 (14:22 rushass TDs)

2001 Ricky Williams 1,756 & 7 (8:27 rushass TDs)

2002 Deuce McCallister 1,440 & 16 (16:27 rushass TDs)

2003 Deuce McCallister 2,157 & 8 (11:25 rushass TDs)

2004 Deuce McCallister 1,302 & 9 (15:21 rushass TDs)

2005 Kevan Barlow & Frank Gore 1,561 & 6 (9:8 rushass TDs)

2006 Ahman Green 1,332 & 6 (9:18 rushass TDs)

2007 Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson, DeShawn Wynn 1,426 & 13 (13:30 rushass TDs)

2008 Ryan Grant 1,319 & 5 (11:28 rushass TDs)

2009 Ryan Grant 1,450 & 11 (20:30 rushass TDs)

2010 Brandon Jackson & John Kuhn 1,423 & 10 (11:31 rushass TDs)

2011 Ryan Grant & James Starks 1,621 & 4 (12:51 rushass TDs)

2012 Alex Green, Cedric Benson, James Starks, DuJuan Harris 1,394 & 4 (9:40 rushass TDs)

2013 Eddie Lacy 1,435 & 11 (17:25 rushass TDs)

That's an average, with a committee or bell cow of 1,416 yards & 9 TDs (13:27 rushass TDs). If we just look at the 9 seasons where he had a bell cow it improves to 1,511 & 9 TDs with a 13:24 rushass TD ratio.

By contrast Adrian Peterson averages 1,687 & 13 TDs (those are full season averages, if it were per 16 game averages it would be 1,834 & 14). His teams average an 18:20 rushass TD ratio.

Then there is Norv's record. Excluding the seasons where he had a top notch QB* Norv was a head coach or offensive coordinator for 14 seasons. His RBs (lead back or committee) averaged 1,689 yards & 12 TDs and his teams have averaged a 14:19 rushass TD ratio.

The numbers improve when he has a bell cow back. Again excluding those seasons with a top tier QB, in 8 seasons with a single back starting 14 or more games that back averaged 1,753 yards, 13 TDs and the teams have a 16:17 rushass TD ratio.

In those 8 seasons Norv has had a bell cow back go over 2,000 yards twice and over 17 TDs twice. A McCarthy back has had a 2,000 yard back once in 9 seasons with a bell cow and maxed out at 16 TDs. And McCarthy has coached some pretty good backs in Williams, McCallister & Grant.

*These are, of course, the Aikman and Rivers seasons. I am certain the numbers would be even better if we included these seasons but some people don't think that would make a favorable comp for the current Vikings roster.

 

[tjnc09]

He's passing it off as a who do I draft at 1.03 when Charles and McCoy are gone question in a shark pool thread. Not sure how anyone would expect that he get serious answers.

Actually SHOCKED it took this long.

Because ya, this isnt a legit question and debate as you can see by the monotony of this thread. totally one sided.

move along.

lol, the Shark Pool police was trying to let us know how people should respond to a thread that shouldn't even be in the Shark Pool.And I answered your question. If you look at Tomlinson's production w Turner at similar stages in career as ADP, I think you are a fool to pass up that combination.

The Shark Pool, since I came here in 2004, is filled with comparisons between two players with similar ADPs during draft time. I don't feel like this is a WDIS thread.You're ignoring the fact Turner had Philip Rivers in the prime of his career alongside Vincent Jackson, rather than Matt Cassel. It is not the same situation. No one who slightly prefers Lacy in GB vs Peterson in Minny is a fool.

That's a strange argument considering Lacy didn't play with his elite QB half of last season and still fared okay. Why is it that can be ignored but ADP can't be successful without a household QB name even with his proven track record? He ran for over 2000 yards in 2012 after a serious knee injury with Christian Ponder as QB and added another 4.5 average in their lone Wild Card game with Joe Webb behind center. If it is anyone who has proven he can be the workhorse on a team with or without surrounding offensive talent, it's ADP.

1) You specifically referenced using LT's production with Norv as a baseline for AP this year, I'm pointing out that baseline included an Elite QB, great WR, and one of the greatest pass catching TEs of all time. He's getting Norv, but not elite pieces around him so TD breaking seasons in my opinion are not a good baseline.

I've never said he won't have a good year despite the poor offense. I have said I have him neck and neck as my RB3 and am breaking a tie. I clearly think he'll have a good year.

2) You lose me on the know Rodgers point. I'm not giving Lacy credit for his time without Rodgers. My whole argument is like him BECAUSE of the Rodgers led offense. Without Rodgers, I wouldn't even have Lacy in the discussion for RB3.

My reference to LT was more to the OP saying ADP was elite but with dwindling talent. It is possible for someone in ADP's stage of his career to still be successful.

You are grossly overestimated the need for a RB to be surrounded by an elite QB and receiving cores. Last year, for example, Denver had 55 passing TDs and only 16 rushing TDs. Kansas City had only 24 passing TDs but 17 rushing TDs. AND Charles had 7 of those receiving TDs (combined with 70 rec for 693 yds). My point is teams will feed their playmaker no matter who is surrounding them. Saying LTs success was due to his offensive teammates would suggest that Montee Ball should be drafted before Jamaal Charles this year.

Going back to the Lacy and ADP discussion, ADP is a playmaker. It is possible with his talent and Turner's intent to use him similar to RBs in the past, his ceiling is the sky. If he can stay healthy for all 16 games, there is no reason he can't be the #1 fantasy RB in standard and PPR. He has the capability to turn a 5 yard screen into a 80 yard TD. I think he will see many more passes this year and his only real back up Gerhardt left for Jacksonville. Lacy, to me, is a grinder. He doesn't have the speed to turn short screens into long TDs and will more likely give you more carries for less yards. His ceiling is much, much lower than ADPs.

I honestly think a more appropriate question for the OP is whether ADP should be taken #1 this year.

 

[Portis Homer]

He's passing it off as a who do I draft at 1.03 when Charles and McCoy are gone question in a shark pool thread. Not sure how anyone would expect that he get serious answers.

Actually SHOCKED it took this long.

Because ya, this isnt a legit question and debate as you can see by the monotony of this thread. totally one sided.

move along.

lol, the Shark Pool police was trying to let us know how people should respond to a thread that shouldn't even be in the Shark Pool.And I answered your question. If you look at Tomlinson's production w Turner at similar stages in career as ADP, I think you are a fool to pass up that combination.

The Shark Pool, since I came here in 2004, is filled with comparisons between two players with similar ADPs during draft time. I don't feel like this is a WDIS thread.You're ignoring the fact Turner had Philip Rivers in the prime of his career alongside Vincent Jackson, rather than Matt Cassel. It is not the same situation. No one who slightly prefers Lacy in GB vs Peterson in Minny is a fool.

That's a strange argument considering Lacy didn't play with his elite QB half of last season and still fared okay. Why is it that can be ignored but ADP can't be successful without a household QB name even with his proven track record? He ran for over 2000 yards in 2012 after a serious knee injury with Christian Ponder as QB and added another 4.5 average in their lone Wild Card game with Joe Webb behind center. If it is anyone who has proven he can be the workhorse on a team with or without surrounding offensive talent, it's ADP.

1) You specifically referenced using LT's production with Norv as a baseline for AP this year, I'm pointing out that baseline included an Elite QB, great WR, and one of the greatest pass catching TEs of all time. He's getting Norv, but not elite pieces around him so TD breaking seasons in my opinion are not a good baseline.

I've never said he won't have a good year despite the poor offense. I have said I have him neck and neck as my RB3 and am breaking a tie. I clearly think he'll have a good year.

2) You lose me on the know Rodgers point. I'm not giving Lacy credit for his time without Rodgers. My whole argument is like him BECAUSE of the Rodgers led offense. Without Rodgers, I wouldn't even have Lacy in the discussion for RB3.

My reference to LT was more to the OP saying ADP was elite but with dwindling talent. It is possible for someone in ADP's stage of his career to still be successful.

You are grossly overestimated the need for a RB to be surrounded by an elite QB and receiving cores. Last year, for example, Denver had 55 passing TDs and only 16 rushing TDs. Kansas City had only 24 passing TDs but 17 rushing TDs. AND Charles had 7 of those receiving TDs (combined with 70 rec for 693 yds). My point is teams will feed their playmaker no matter who is surrounding them. Saying LTs success was due to his offensive teammates would suggest that Montee Ball should be drafted before Jamaal Charles this year.

Going back to the Lacy and ADP discussion, ADP is a playmaker. It is possible with his talent and Turner's intent to use him similar to RBs in the past, his ceiling is the sky. If he can stay healthy for all 16 games, there is no reason he can't be the #1 fantasy RB in standard and PPR. He has the capability to turn a 5 yard screen into a 80 yard TD. I think he will see many more passes this year and his only real back up Gerhardt left for Jacksonville. Lacy, to me, is a grinder. He doesn't have the speed to turn short screens into long TDs and will more likely give you more carries for less yards. His ceiling is much, much lower than ADPs.

I honestly think a more appropriate question for the OP is whether ADP should be taken #1 this year.

How can you state I'm grossly over-estimating the need of a potent offense for a successful RB? Have you done extensive research? You came with two hand-picked examples....I'm not sure how that somehow validates your view point over mine? How many rushing TDs did LeSean McCoy score with the high-powered Eagles offense vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars offense? That would be a ridiculous argument where I'm choosing two self serving examples. A couple hand picked examples do not prove your point.

Would you prefer Jamal Charles with the Chiefs supporting cast or the Broncos supporting cast? I would prefer him with the Broncos. That is all I'm saying. I'd still have him a top 3 RB with the Chiefs, but I would like him more with the more potent Broncos offense. This is not a controversial statement and I'm not sure why you're continuing to dispute it.

I'm not saying a potent offense is required for a successful RB. I'm saying a potent offense is a benefit to a RB, and when I have two RBs rated very close to one another, the potent offense is my tie-breaker and I believe leads to a higher floor for fantasy scoring. I have Lacy and Peterson neck and neck, so I'm more comfortable with the one in the better offense. That is literally all I am saying. I am not anti Adrian Peterson. I still have him rated 4th and expect him to have similar production to last year. I'm not sure why posters get so personally invested in one and need to crush the other.

 

[tjnc09]

chaka, I didn't read your post before posting mine re: Charles

Please don't report me

 

[tjnc09]

Portis, it isn't black/white. Each situation and player should be examined differently.

Charles, McCoy, ADP are players that I think can break a 80 yd TD every time they touch the ball. If you want to reference Charles specifically, I would rather have him in KC than Denver as a fantasy football owner because he has no talent around him, KC knows this and utilizes him as much as possible. The same with ADP and McCoy. ADP has a proven track record that it doesn't matter who surrounds him on the field and it is known Turner will utilize him.

Lacy is not someone who I look at that can break a 80 yd TD every time he touches the ball. I remember a long run vs. Chicago where he was caught at the 1 yd line. He doesn't have that open field speed that makes you go wow. In their current situations, would you be more excited when ADP gets the ball at his own 20 or Lacy? I want that guy who can make one guy miss and be gone. Lacy is NOT that guy. Why does it matter who ADP has at QB if he can run for 80 yds and a TD vs. Lacy who simply can not.

 

[Portis Homer]

Portis, it isn't black/white. Each situation and player should be examined differently.

Charles, McCoy, ADP are players that I think can break a 80 yd TD every time they touch the ball. If you want to reference Charles specifically, I would rather have him in KC than Denver as a fantasy football owner because he has no talent around him, KC knows this and utilizes him as much as possible. The same with ADP and McCoy. ADP has a proven track record that it doesn't matter who surrounds him on the field and it is known Turner will utilize him.

Lacy is not someone who I look at that can break a 80 yd TD every time he touches the ball. I remember a long run vs. Chicago where he was caught at the 1 yd line. He doesn't have that open field speed that makes you go wow. In their current situations, would you be more excited when ADP gets the ball at his own 20 or Lacy? I want that guy who can make one guy miss and be gone. Lacy is NOT that guy. Why does it matter who ADP has at QB if he can run for 80 yds and a TD vs. Lacy who simply can not.

1) Not every situation is black and white....what are you talking about? I just stated, that when specifically analyzing two individuals and having them in a tie in my rankings after looking at all the specific variables related to each, I take their offenses into account as a ###-breaker. That is literally the antithesis of making a black and white argument.

2) The fact you'd rather have Charles on KC than Denver because "he has no talent around him" is incomprehensible to me. I completely disagree with your premise and your logic.

3) Yes, they are capable of breaking 80 yards TDs, and most of them only do so a handful of times a year. I am much more comfortable relying on Lacy's banging running style getting double digit short yardage TD looks on a potent Packers offense than relying on Peterson having to overcome poor QB play by breaking 80 yard runs. Those long runs are rare and I can't believe you think it's safer to count on those runs. Not to mention looking at their game logs last year, Peterson had 3 games with a run over 50 yards, Lacy had 2.

Take away the difference in running styles, and look at a better example where we're looking at two similar runners: McCoy vs Charles. I have them neck and neck in my rankings and consider them similar talents. I have McCoy higher, as with the much better offense, sustained drives, increase in plays run, and more red zone opportunities, I believe he has a much safer floor with more TD and running attempt opportunities.

 

[tjnc09]

This is not scientific, but the best I can do to illustrate my point:

Lacy's long runs each game (concussion game excluded)

7, 13, 37, 13, 17, 56 (Chicago, horrible rush D), 11, 5, 17, 4, 11, 60 (Dallas, horrible rush D), 14, 17.

Rodgers will move that offense along but Lacy has a cap on his explosive plays.

ADP 2013:

78, 36, 9, 60, 31, 8, 17, 52, 18, 13, 22, 23

ADP 2012:

20, 6, 20, 18, 34, 32, 27, 64, 74, 61, 23, 82, 21, 28

You can honestly say you want Lacy with a better QB who can only break long runs against bottom tier rush teams vs ADP with that POTENTIAL for long plays every time he runs the ball? Keep in mind, those are the game highs. He easily has other 30,40,50 yard runs when the max is 60+. Lacy just does not have that second gear.

 

[tjnc09]

Portis, it isn't black/white. Each situation and player should be examined differently.

Charles, McCoy, ADP are players that I think can break a 80 yd TD every time they touch the ball. If you want to reference Charles specifically, I would rather have him in KC than Denver as a fantasy football owner because he has no talent around him, KC knows this and utilizes him as much as possible. The same with ADP and McCoy. ADP has a proven track record that it doesn't matter who surrounds him on the field and it is known Turner will utilize him.

Lacy is not someone who I look at that can break a 80 yd TD every time he touches the ball. I remember a long run vs. Chicago where he was caught at the 1 yd line. He doesn't have that open field speed that makes you go wow. In their current situations, would you be more excited when ADP gets the ball at his own 20 or Lacy? I want that guy who can make one guy miss and be gone. Lacy is NOT that guy. Why does it matter who ADP has at QB if he can run for 80 yds and a TD vs. Lacy who simply can not.

1) Not every situation is black and white....what are you talking about? I just stated, that when specifically analyzing two individuals and having them in a tie in my rankings after looking at all the specific variables related to each, I take their offenses into account as a ###-breaker. That is literally the antithesis of making a black and white argument.

2) The fact you'd rather have Charles on KC than Denver because "he has no talent around him" is incomprehensible to me. I completely disagree with your premise and your logic.

3) Yes, they are capable of breaking 80 yards TDs, and most of them only do so a handful of times a year. I am much more comfortable relying on Lacy's banging running style getting double digit short yardage TD looks on a potent Packers offense than relying on Peterson having to overcome poor QB play by breaking 80 yard runs. Those long runs are rare and I can't believe you think it's safer to count on those runs. Not to mention looking at their game logs last year, Peterson had 3 games with a run over 50 yards, Lacy had 2.

Take away the difference in running styles, and look at a better example where we're looking at two similar runners: McCoy vs Charles. I have them neck and neck in my rankings and consider them similar talents. I have McCoy higher, as with the much better offense, sustained drives, increase in plays run, and more red zone opportunities, I believe he has a much safer floor with more TD and running attempt opportunities.

choose Lacy then

 

[Chaka]

My reference to LT was more to the OP saying ADP was elite but with dwindling talent. It is possible for someone in ADP's stage of his career to still be successful.

You are grossly overestimated the need for a RB to be surrounded by an elite QB and receiving cores. Last year, for example, Denver had 55 passing TDs and only 16 rushing TDs. Kansas City had only 24 passing TDs but 17 rushing TDs. AND Charles had 7 of those receiving TDs (combined with 70 rec for 693 yds). My point is teams will feed their playmaker no matter who is surrounding them. Saying LTs success was due to his offensive teammates would suggest that Montee Ball should be drafted before Jamaal Charles this year.

Going back to the Lacy and ADP discussion, ADP is a playmaker. It is possible with his talent and Turner's intent to use him similar to RBs in the past, his ceiling is the sky. If he can stay healthy for all 16 games, there is no reason he can't be the #1 fantasy RB in standard and PPR. He has the capability to turn a 5 yard screen into a 80 yard TD. I think he will see many more passes this year and his only real back up Gerhardt left for Jacksonville. Lacy, to me, is a grinder. He doesn't have the speed to turn short screens into long TDs and will more likely give you more carries for less yards. His ceiling is much, much lower than ADPs.

I honestly think a more appropriate question for the OP is whether ADP should be taken #1 this year.

How can you state I'm grossly over-estimating the need of a potent offense for a successful RB? Have you done extensive research? You came with two hand-picked examples....I'm not sure how that somehow validates your view point over mine? How many rushing TDs did LeSean McCoy score with the high-powered Eagles offense vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars offense? That would be a ridiculous argument where I'm choosing two self serving examples. A couple hand picked examples do not prove your point.

Would you prefer Jamal Charles with the Chiefs supporting cast or the Broncos supporting cast? I would prefer him with the Broncos. That is all I'm saying. I'd still have him a top 3 RB with the Chiefs, but I would like him more with the more potent Broncos offense. This is not a controversial statement and I'm not sure why you're continuing to dispute it.

I'm not saying a potent offense is required for a successful RB. I'm saying a potent offense is a benefit to a RB, and when I have two RBs rated very close to one another, the potent offense is my tie-breaker and I believe leads to a higher floor for fantasy scoring. I have Lacy and Peterson neck and neck, so I'm more comfortable with the one in the better offense. That is literally all I am saying. I am not anti Adrian Peterson. I still have him rated 4th and expect him to have similar production to last year. I'm not sure why posters get so personally invested in one and need to crush the other.

I did extensive research on McCarthy and Norv just a few posts above. One of the take away messages is that in the 14 seasons of Norv coaching without an elite QB his teams averaged 33 offensive TDs and during all 14 of McCarthy's seasons as a head coach or offensive coordinator his teams averaged 40 offensive TDs. Despite that Norv's running backs were significantly better than McCarthy's. 1,689 total yards and 12 total TDs for Norv compared to 1,416 total yards and 9 total TDs for McCarthy.

 

[Portis Homer]

This is not scientific, but the best I can do to illustrate my point:

Lacy's long runs each game (concussion game excluded)

7, 13, 37, 13, 17, 56 (Chicago, horrible rush D), 11, 5, 17, 4, 11, 60 (Dallas, horrible rush D), 14, 17.

Rodgers will move that offense along but Lacy has a cap on his explosive plays.

ADP 2013:

78, 36, 9, 60, 31, 8, 17, 52, 18, 13, 22, 23

ADP 2012:

20, 6, 20, 18, 34, 32, 27, 64, 74, 61, 23, 82, 21, 28

You can honestly say you want Lacy with a better QB who can only break long runs against bottom tier rush teams vs ADP with that POTENTIAL for long plays every time he runs the ball? Keep in mind, those are the game highs. He easily has other 30,40,50 yard runs when the max is 60+. Lacy just does not have that second gear.

Ughhh...a few things:

1) You are pointing out that Lacy's two games with 50 yard runs were against the poor Dallas and Bears defense and so shouldn't count, but then left out the fact that of Peterson's 3 games with 50 yard runs, 1 was against that same Dallas defense, another against the 21st ranked Steelers defense, and then the 36 yard game was against the same poor Bears defense you already referenced.

2) Then, for no apparent reason, while comparing both players 2013 statistics, you throw in Adrian Peterson's once in a lifetime 2000+ record breaking stats.

You keep picking out self serving statistics, or at the very least highlight those that help your point while for no apparent reason discounting all those against it. We'll just agree to disagree, as trying to debate this style of defense is incredibly aggravating.

 

[tjnc09]

My reference to LT was more to the OP saying ADP was elite but with dwindling talent. It is possible for someone in ADP's stage of his career to still be successful.

You are grossly overestimated the need for a RB to be surrounded by an elite QB and receiving cores. Last year, for example, Denver had 55 passing TDs and only 16 rushing TDs. Kansas City had only 24 passing TDs but 17 rushing TDs. AND Charles had 7 of those receiving TDs (combined with 70 rec for 693 yds). My point is teams will feed their playmaker no matter who is surrounding them. Saying LTs success was due to his offensive teammates would suggest that Montee Ball should be drafted before Jamaal Charles this year.

Going back to the Lacy and ADP discussion, ADP is a playmaker. It is possible with his talent and Turner's intent to use him similar to RBs in the past, his ceiling is the sky. If he can stay healthy for all 16 games, there is no reason he can't be the #1 fantasy RB in standard and PPR. He has the capability to turn a 5 yard screen into a 80 yard TD. I think he will see many more passes this year and his only real back up Gerhardt left for Jacksonville. Lacy, to me, is a grinder. He doesn't have the speed to turn short screens into long TDs and will more likely give you more carries for less yards. His ceiling is much, much lower than ADPs.

I honestly think a more appropriate question for the OP is whether ADP should be taken #1 this year.

How can you state I'm grossly over-estimating the need of a potent offense for a successful RB? Have you done extensive research? You came with two hand-picked examples....I'm not sure how that somehow validates your view point over mine? How many rushing TDs did LeSean McCoy score with the high-powered Eagles offense vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars offense? That would be a ridiculous argument where I'm choosing two self serving examples. A couple hand picked examples do not prove your point.

Would you prefer Jamal Charles with the Chiefs supporting cast or the Broncos supporting cast? I would prefer him with the Broncos. That is all I'm saying. I'd still have him a top 3 RB with the Chiefs, but I would like him more with the more potent Broncos offense. This is not a controversial statement and I'm not sure why you're continuing to dispute it.

I'm not saying a potent offense is required for a successful RB. I'm saying a potent offense is a benefit to a RB, and when I have two RBs rated very close to one another, the potent offense is my tie-breaker and I believe leads to a higher floor for fantasy scoring. I have Lacy and Peterson neck and neck, so I'm more comfortable with the one in the better offense. That is literally all I am saying. I am not anti Adrian Peterson. I still have him rated 4th and expect him to have similar production to last year. I'm not sure why posters get so personally invested in one and need to crush the other.

I did extensive research on McCarthy and Norv just a few posts above. One of the take away messages is that in the 14 seasons of Norv coaching without an elite QB his teams averaged 33 offensive TDs and during all 14 of McCarthy's seasons as a head coach or offensive coordinator his teams averaged 40 offensive TDs. Despite that Norv's running backs were significantly better than McCarthy's. 1,689 total yards and 12 total TDs for Norv compared to 1,416 total yards and 9 total TDs for McCarthy.

Here are McCarthy's 14 seasons as offensive coordinator or head coach:

2000 Ricky Williams 1,409 & 9 (14:22 rushass TDs)

2001 Ricky Williams 1,756 & 7 (8:27 rushass TDs)

2005 Kevan Barlow & Frank Gore 1,561 & 6 (9:8 rushass TDs)

Turner with Williams & Gore:

2002 Ricky Williams 383/1853/16 & 47/363/1 (best rushing season, 2nd best rec)

2003 Ricky Williams 392/1372/9 & 50/361/1 (2nd best rushing season, 3rd best rec)

2006 Frank Gore 312/1695/8 & 61/485/1 (best rushing season, best rec)

 

[Archer]

I get what a few posters have said about lacy not being that RB to break off a 80 yard TD when compared to a Charles, AP, MCCoy but remember this. The RB that had the most 20+ runs last year was....Alfred Morris.

 

[Catbird]

Great topic, Soulfly, and great discussion. The eye opener to me is FreeBaGel's data showing that high scoring RBs generally come from poorer passing teams. I had ascribed to the general belief that high scoring offenses were the place to find high scoring runners, but a direct look at the last three years shows they come pretty solidly from the teams who have trouble passing. That coincides with the anecdotal GB experience last year, where rushing production increased when the passing production dropped off. Maybe the need to rely on your RB is more critical to production than the extended drives and overall scoring opportunities I had assumed correlated more closely with RB production. Interesting stuff and exactly why the forum works.

I own Lacy in all but one of my leagues and have to admit I have never owned ADP. In my defense, I can only say he was gone in every dynasty before I ever had a shot at him and he's never been cheap. No question in my mind that Peterson is the far superior talent. No question that Lacy having one year tells us a whole lot less about his future than ADP's glowing record. If age isn't a factor, I don't see Lacy being even close as a redraft pick. Its the significant downtick from ADP's 2012 to 2013 that makes this interesting. Most RBs run out of steam at 29 or 30. Sure, there are outliers often brought up who ran well at 31 (Martin, Riggins, etc.) and there are a ton of great RBs who faded at or before 29 (MJD is the most evident today, but off the top of my head, I think Dickerson, Eddie George, OJ and Terrell Davis were all among the best and done by 29).

I would take ADP if I had that re-draft choice, based on Lacy's greater uncertainty of talent and production even if fully healthy, but the typical drop off starting around 28 or 29 is a last great year, slightly worse year, horribly disappointing year, done. If ADPs horrible drop isn't this year, it won't be far off.

 

[tjnc09]

This is not scientific, but the best I can do to illustrate my point:

Lacy's long runs each game (concussion game excluded)

7, 13, 37, 13, 17, 56 (Chicago, horrible rush D), 11, 5, 17, 4, 11, 60 (Dallas, horrible rush D), 14, 17.

Rodgers will move that offense along but Lacy has a cap on his explosive plays.

ADP 2013:

78, 36, 9, 60, 31, 8, 17, 52, 18, 13, 22, 23

ADP 2012:

20, 6, 20, 18, 34, 32, 27, 64, 74, 61, 23, 82, 21, 28

You can honestly say you want Lacy with a better QB who can only break long runs against bottom tier rush teams vs ADP with that POTENTIAL for long plays every time he runs the ball? Keep in mind, those are the game highs. He easily has other 30,40,50 yard runs when the max is 60+. Lacy just does not have that second gear.

Ughhh...a few things:

1) You are pointing out that Lacy's two games with 50 yard runs were against the poor Dallas and Bears defense and so shouldn't count, but then left out the fact that of Peterson's 3 games with 50 yard runs, 1 was against that same Dallas defense, another against the 21st ranked Steelers defense, and then the 36 yard game was against the same poor Bears defense you already referenced.

2) Then, for no apparent reason, while comparing both players 2013 statistics, you throw in Adrian Peterson's once in a lifetime 2000+ record breaking stats.

You keep picking out self serving statistics, or at the very least highlight those that help your point while for no apparent reason discounting all those against it. We'll just agree to disagree, as trying to debate this style of defense is incredibly aggravating.

LOL, I picked 2012 because it was the year before. Here, I will go find Lacy's 2012 stats to compare. Might take me a while though so don't hold your breath.

 

[tjnc09]

I know which teams ADP's long runs were against last year. Lacy has a career of one year. He has shown NO ability to run for a big gain unless it's against a bottom tier defense against the run. Even then, he couldn't even score against Chicago on a 56 yard run tackled at the one.

ADP has a PROVEN record to be able to break a long run. That's what the 2012 numbers should tell you and any second you have ever watched him run with the football. If need be, I can continue to go back for his whole career and point out numerous instances where it really didn't matter who he was playing.

Peterson has a gear that Lacy has yet to show me.

As I mentioned, pick Lacy. Your mind is made up

 

[Soulfly3]

This "extra gear" talk is great and all... But then let's include CJ2K into the discussion. He has a gear NOONE else has...

Point is, Peterson's extra gear is just ONE thing in his favor over Lacy. Amongst a list of other things, of course... But Lacy has a few on his list as well after 1 year... and for all we know, after this season, Lacy's list grows tenfold, while AP's shrinks to half.

It's being able to brace for the fall of AP that made me start this thread.... I still think he has a good - great season... but the "wall" is real, and it's there... it could be now. I dont think it is yet, but it could be... and there is 1-2 really good RBs that give me pause to say AP is the clear choice TODAY

 

[tjnc09]

I get what a few posters have said about lacy not being that RB to break off a 80 yard TD when compared to a Charles, AP, MCCoy but remember this. The RB that had the most 20+ runs last year was....Alfred Morris.

Strength of opponent's run schedule will have a lot to do with that. ADP and Lacy are an easier comparison because they will have similar schedules. Washington really didn't play anyone last year w the exception of SF that frightened me to start a RB against.

It's practically impossible to quantify especially with touchdown runs since the distance is capped. But visually, if you give ADP and Lacy the ball with the same exact hole at the line and same exact defensive reactions, I want ADP every single time.

 

[tjnc09]

This "extra gear" talk is great and all... But then let's include CJ2K into the discussion. He has a gear NOONE else has...

Point is, Peterson's extra gear is just ONE thing in his favor over Lacy. Amongst a list of other things, of course... But Lacy has a few on his list as well after 1 year... and for all we know, after this season, Lacy's list grows tenfold, while AP's shrinks to half.

It's being able to brace for the fall of AP that made me start this thread.... I still think he has a good - great season... but the "wall" is real, and it's there... it could be now. I dont think it is yet, but it could be... and there is 1-2 really good RBs that give me pause to say AP is the clear choice TODAY

What are the advantages Lacy has though? I personally do not want to take a first round pick with so many question marks.

Regarding the "wall", ADP basically only played 12 games last year. He was injured early on against Baltimore, missed a game, donked around against Cincinnati for 12 touches and missed week 17. On the flip side, Lacy was essentially the bell cow for 15 games. That is a career high for him vs. college and ended his season a month later. It is unknown how Lacy's body will respond to the hardest football year of his life.

 

[Chaka]

This "extra gear" talk is great and all... But then let's include CJ2K into the discussion. He has a gear NOONE else has...

Point is, Peterson's extra gear is just ONE thing in his favor over Lacy. Amongst a list of other things, of course... But Lacy has a few on his list as well after 1 year... and for all we know, after this season, Lacy's list grows tenfold, while AP's shrinks to half.

It's being able to brace for the fall of AP that made me start this thread.... I still think he has a good - great season... but the "wall" is real, and it's there... it could be now. I dont think it is yet, but it could be... and there is 1-2 really good RBs that give me pause to say AP is the clear choice TODAY

What are the advantages Lacy has though? I personally do not want to take a first round pick with so many question marks.

Regarding the "wall", ADP basically only played 12 games last year. He was injured early on against Baltimore, missed a game, donked around against Cincinnati for 12 touches and missed week 17. On the flip side, Lacy was essentially the bell cow for 15 games. That is a career high for him vs. college and ended his season a month later. It is unknown how Lacy's body will respond to the hardest football year of his life.

Lacy got dinged in week one (15 touches), had one touch in week 2 and missed week 3 entirely.

 

[sn0mm1s]

This isn't even a debate for me. I don't even think Lacy is a 1st rounder.

 

[Soulfly3]

This isn't even a debate for me. I don't even think Lacy is a 1st rounder.

woah woah woah...

what?

 

[tjnc09]

This "extra gear" talk is great and all... But then let's include CJ2K into the discussion. He has a gear NOONE else has...

Point is, Peterson's extra gear is just ONE thing in his favor over Lacy. Amongst a list of other things, of course... But Lacy has a few on his list as well after 1 year... and for all we know, after this season, Lacy's list grows tenfold, while AP's shrinks to half.

It's being able to brace for the fall of AP that made me start this thread.... I still think he has a good - great season... but the "wall" is real, and it's there... it could be now. I dont think it is yet, but it could be... and there is 1-2 really good RBs that give me pause to say AP is the clear choice TODAY

What are the advantages Lacy has though? I personally do not want to take a first round pick with so many question marks. Regarding the "wall", ADP basically only played 12 games last year. He was injured early on against Baltimore, missed a game, donked around against Cincinnati for 12 touches and missed week 17. On the flip side, Lacy was essentially the bell cow for 15 games. That is a career high for him vs. college and ended his season a month later. It is unknown how Lacy's body will respond to the hardest football year of his life.

Lacy got dinged in week one (15 touches), had one touch in week 2 and missed week 3 entirely.

I excluded weeks 2 and weeks 3. Included week 1 (sitting week 16 >>> sitting week 1) but I think you are forgetting Lacy had a playoff game vs SF.

 

[Portis Homer]

I know which teams ADP's long runs were against last year. Lacy has a career of one year. He has shown NO ability to run for a big gain unless it's against a bottom tier defense against the run. Even then, he couldn't even score against Chicago on a 56 yard run tackled at the one.

ADP has a PROVEN record to be able to break a long run. That's what the 2012 numbers should tell you and any second you have ever watched him run with the football. If need be, I can continue to go back for his whole career and point out numerous instances where it really didn't matter who he was playing.

Peterson has a gear that Lacy has yet to show me.

As I mentioned, pick Lacy. Your mind is made up

Oh my god....you realize this is not an argument about who has the higher ypc, who has the higher gear or who is more likely to break an 80 yard run right? My argument is which of the two RB has a higher floor in regards to scoring more fantasy points.

Lacy in a top 5 offense, I believe has a higher floor than Peterson, due to significantly more offensive plays, sustained drives, and scoring opportunities. As a floor, even if he runs for 4 ypc, he should see double digit red zone opportunities and 280 carries.

I think Adrian Peterson is more talented, I think he has a higher 2nd gear, I think he will likely average more ypc, and I think he has a higher ceiling based on these factors and his past performance. But that is not my argument in anyway.

I tap out, this is going no where.

 

[Portis Homer]

Great topic, Soulfly, and great discussion. The eye opener to me is FreeBaGel's data showing that high scoring RBs generally come from poorer passing teams. I had ascribed to the general belief that high scoring offenses were the place to find high scoring runners, but a direct look at the last three years shows they come pretty solidly from the teams who have trouble passing. That coincides with the anecdotal GB experience last year, where rushing production increased when the passing production dropped off. Maybe the need to rely on your RB is more critical to production than the extended drives and overall scoring opportunities I had assumed correlated more closely with RB production. Interesting stuff and exactly why the forum works.

I think I dispelled that in my earlier post. There was a high correlation in 2012, but I see very little causation, as again, any top ten passing offenses that did not have a top 10 RB was only because they employed a heavy RBBC or their starter was injured. Every single one of the top 10 passing offenses than employed a main RB who was healthy for a majority of the year resulted in a top ten RB, even when that runner has a poor ypc, such as Michael Turner.

 

[Portis Homer]

This is not scientific, but the best I can do to illustrate my point:

Lacy's long runs each game (concussion game excluded)

7, 13, 37, 13, 17, 56 (Chicago, horrible rush D), 11, 5, 17, 4, 11, 60 (Dallas, horrible rush D), 14, 17.

Rodgers will move that offense along but Lacy has a cap on his explosive plays.

ADP 2013:

78, 36, 9, 60, 31, 8, 17, 52, 18, 13, 22, 23

ADP 2012:

20, 6, 20, 18, 34, 32, 27, 64, 74, 61, 23, 82, 21, 28

You can honestly say you want Lacy with a better QB who can only break long runs against bottom tier rush teams vs ADP with that POTENTIAL for long plays every time he runs the ball? Keep in mind, those are the game highs. He easily has other 30,40,50 yard runs when the max is 60+. Lacy just does not have that second gear.

Ughhh...a few things:

1) You are pointing out that Lacy's two games with 50 yard runs were against the poor Dallas and Bears defense and so shouldn't count, but then left out the fact that of Peterson's 3 games with 50 yard runs, 1 was against that same Dallas defense, another against the 21st ranked Steelers defense, and then the 36 yard game was against the same poor Bears defense you already referenced.

2) Then, for no apparent reason, while comparing both players 2013 statistics, you throw in Adrian Peterson's once in a lifetime 2000+ record breaking stats.

You keep picking out self serving statistics, or at the very least highlight those that help your point while for no apparent reason discounting all those against it. We'll just agree to disagree, as trying to debate this style of defense is incredibly aggravating.

LOL, I picked 2012 because it was the year before. Here, I will go find Lacy's 2012 stats to compare. Might take me a while though so don't hold your breath.

They have one comparable year, 2013. You only opted to throw in 2012 as it's self-serving evidence.

 

[tjnc09]

I know which teams ADP's long runs were against last year. Lacy has a career of one year. He has shown NO ability to run for a big gain unless it's against a bottom tier defense against the run. Even then, he couldn't even score against Chicago on a 56 yard run tackled at the one.

ADP has a PROVEN record to be able to break a long run. That's what the 2012 numbers should tell you and any second you have ever watched him run with the football. If need be, I can continue to go back for his whole career and point out numerous instances where it really didn't matter who he was playing.

Peterson has a gear that Lacy has yet to show me.

As I mentioned, pick Lacy. Your mind is made up

Oh my god....you realize this is not an argument about who has the higher ypc, who has the higher gear or who is more likely to break an 80 yard run right? My argument is which of the two RB has a higher floor in regards to scoring more fantasy points.

Lacy in a top 5 offense, I believe has a higher floor than Peterson, due to significantly more offensive plays, sustained drives, and scoring opportunities. As a floor, even if he runs for 4 ypc, he should see double digit red zone opportunities and 280 carries.

I think Adrian Peterson is more talented, I think he has a higher 2nd gear, I think he will likely average more ypc, and I think he has a higher ceiling based on these factors and his past performance. But that is not my argument in anyway.

I tap out, this is going no where.

Peterson has a higher floor and a higher ceiling. If that's the only thing you care about, it's very simple.

 

[Portis Homer]

I know which teams ADP's long runs were against last year. Lacy has a career of one year. He has shown NO ability to run for a big gain unless it's against a bottom tier defense against the run. Even then, he couldn't even score against Chicago on a 56 yard run tackled at the one.

ADP has a PROVEN record to be able to break a long run. That's what the 2012 numbers should tell you and any second you have ever watched him run with the football. If need be, I can continue to go back for his whole career and point out numerous instances where it really didn't matter who he was playing.

Peterson has a gear that Lacy has yet to show me.

As I mentioned, pick Lacy. Your mind is made up

Oh my god....you realize this is not an argument about who has the higher ypc, who has the higher gear or who is more likely to break an 80 yard run right? My argument is which of the two RB has a higher floor in regards to scoring more fantasy points.

Lacy in a top 5 offense, I believe has a higher floor than Peterson, due to significantly more offensive plays, sustained drives, and scoring opportunities. As a floor, even if he runs for 4 ypc, he should see double digit red zone opportunities and 280 carries.

I think Adrian Peterson is more talented, I think he has a higher 2nd gear, I think he will likely average more ypc, and I think he has a higher ceiling based on these factors and his past performance. But that is not my argument in anyway.

I tap out, this is going no where.

Peterson has a higher floor and a higher ceiling. If that's the only thing you care about, it's very simple.

"It's very simple"....really? This kind of attitude makes it impossible to have an actual analytical discussion. I'm done with my once a year dip in the Shark Pool, you're the exact kind of poster I detest. I've done nothing but try to provide actual evidence to reasons why Lacy has a higher floor, and you just come back with unsubstantiated, self-serving, and often bizarre blanket statements.