Unless you're predicting an injury to Charles or a 12-4 season for KC, Peyton Hillis isn't sniffing 250 carries. I like him, but that's just not a realistic projection.
Well it might just be coachspeak but the KC coaching staff claims they want to run the ball 500 times this season. In that scenario I dont think hillis getting 250 carries is crazy at all...i think charles getting 250 carries coming off ac surgery is nuts. in fact i think that anyone who thinks charles is going to have a top 10 year this year is nuts. I dont care how talented that kid is no rb comes back full strength only 12 months removed from ACL tear. providing that charles stays healthy this year, he will be decent, but not at ALL worth his current ADP. next year he will return to full strngth and top 5 status. Hillis is healthy, and a battering ram. He should get more carries than charles, and lots of TD's, and lots of receptions. He is great in pass pro and he is a great receiver out of the backfield so it wouldnt surprise me to see him on the field more than charles on passing downs. People are sleeping on hillis this year...just the way i like it!
Deuce McAllister tore his ACL in '05 and then had a big year in '06. It's not impossible, and the sample size of running backs as talented as Charles suffering ACL injuries in modern times is impossibly small.McCluster, Cassel, Breatson and others will probably get around 75 carries this year. I don't care how many carries the KC coaching staff wants to have, in reality, losing teams simply can't afford to run. I don't expect Kansas City to have a winning record this season, and I would project them at 475 carries. So that's 220 for Charlies, 180 or so for Hillis. Projecting 250 for Hillis or anything close to that means you have to assume too many things (i.e., KC is very good, Hillis gets more carries than Charles, no one else carries the ball for KC).