Peyton Hillis will be a top 15 rb this year (1 Viewer)

[Badgers Fan]

Peyton Hillis will be the steal of drafts this year. He has an ADP of 74th overall, which is incredible value. In 2010 when Charles had had 275 touches and a historic season, old man Thomas Jones still had 245 carries, even though he clearly couldn't do anything with them (3.7 ypc). The Chiefs have a solid defense this year and a schedule that will give them the opportunity to be in 95% of their games, which should enable them to run close to the 30+ times a game they desire. Peyton Hillis should push for 250 carries. With excellent hands and a big (yet quick footed) body, 30+ catches and 10+ td's (goal line carries) is easily obtainable. Also here is the Chiefs schedule from week 12 to 17: broncos, panthers, @ browns, @ raiders, vs colts, and if you play week 17, @ broncos. I understand things change with teams year to year but, but those defenses are the worst of the worst vs the run and I can't imagine even half of them turning it around. Hillis can easily be your rb1 during the most important part of the season. Hillis should be a 4th or 5th round pick imo, and if you get him anywhere close to 74th overall you should be ECSTATIC.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I am bullish this year on him and feel he is underrated. Top 15 may be stretching it but not by much.

 

[Saint]

Absolutely. I am targeting him in all of my drafts.

 

[rickyg]

I am on board. I wasnt until abut a week ago. He was sort of an afterthought for me after he screwed me last year and was traded to the chiefs. But if he truly does get 250+ touches in KC he will probably have a very very nice year. All reports out of camp in KC say he looks great. Im buying.

 

[VaTerp]

Charles/Hillis along with Bradshaw/Wilson are the two backfields where I think you will find the most FF production from a tandem. I'd be happy to have either duo on my roster.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Unless you're predicting an injury to Charles or a 12-4 season for KC, Peyton Hillis isn't sniffing 250 carries. I like him, but that's just not a realistic projection.

 

[VaTerp]

Unless you're predicting an injury to Charles or a 12-4 season for KC, Peyton Hillis isn't sniffing 250 carries. I like him, but that's just not a realistic projection.

It's still a high projecton but he said 250 touches not carries.I don't do projections but is around 200 carries, 30 receptions unrealistic?

 

[chickensoup]

Charles/Hillis along with Bradshaw/Wilson are the two backfields where I think you will find the most FF production from a tandem. I'd be happy to have either duo on my roster.

I bet DWill/Stewart is better than the Giants duo. They have a 5 YPC average.....both

 

[VaTerp]

Charles/Hillis along with Bradshaw/Wilson are the two backfields where I think you will find the most FF production from a tandem. I'd be happy to have either duo on my roster.

I bet DWill/Stewart is better than the Giants duo. They have a 5 YPC average.....both

Talent wise it doesnt get any better than DWill/Stewart. But they have a QB who is the clear #1 option at the goaline. And IMO they are both significantly under utilized in that offense.We'll see if things change this year though.

 

[LarryAllen'sJockstrap]

Agree on the value of Hills, but more so because I still believe that it take 1+ years to return from ACL tears and Charles is a speed back, so I think the timidness and rust will be more pronounced.

You also got to caveat 2010 and Thomas Jones. He rushed for 570 of his 896 yards rushing (64%) in the first half of the year.

 

[finfansteve]

they signed him for a reason is what I'm thinkin..........I see 16-18 touches a game resulting in 9-12 tds this year. Happy to go get him anywhere after the 5th round

 

[rickyg]

Unless you're predicting an injury to Charles or a 12-4 season for KC, Peyton Hillis isn't sniffing 250 carries. I like him, but that's just not a realistic projection.

Well it might just be coachspeak but the KC coaching staff claims they want to run the ball 500 times this season. In that scenario I dont think hillis getting 250 carries is crazy at all...i think charles getting 250 carries coming off ac surgery is nuts. in fact i think that anyone who thinks charles is going to have a top 10 year this year is nuts. I dont care how talented that kid is no rb comes back full strength only 12 months removed from ACL tear. providing that charles stays healthy this year, he will be decent, but not at ALL worth his current ADP. next year he will return to full strngth and top 5 status. Hillis is healthy, and a battering ram. He should get more carries than charles, and lots of TD's, and lots of receptions. He is great in pass pro and he is a great receiver out of the backfield so it wouldnt surprise me to see him on the field more than charles on passing downs. People are sleeping on hillis this year...just the way i like it!

 

[Badgers Fan]

Unless you're predicting an injury to Charles or a 12-4 season for KC, Peyton Hillis isn't sniffing 250 carries. I like him, but that's just not a realistic projection.

In a year with no Charles, the "potent" group of Thomas Jones, McCluster, and Jackie Battle combined for 386 rushes in the 14 games after Charles got hurt. This team averaged more than 27.5 runs per games just with those guys alone. McCluster is ok but they wanted to run so badly, that they used him more than they normally would if they actually had running backs. Maybe 250 is slightly on the high side, but imo not by much.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Unless you're predicting an injury to Charles or a 12-4 season for KC, Peyton Hillis isn't sniffing 250 carries. I like him, but that's just not a realistic projection.

Well it might just be coachspeak but the KC coaching staff claims they want to run the ball 500 times this season. In that scenario I dont think hillis getting 250 carries is crazy at all...i think charles getting 250 carries coming off ac surgery is nuts. in fact i think that anyone who thinks charles is going to have a top 10 year this year is nuts. I dont care how talented that kid is no rb comes back full strength only 12 months removed from ACL tear. providing that charles stays healthy this year, he will be decent, but not at ALL worth his current ADP. next year he will return to full strngth and top 5 status. Hillis is healthy, and a battering ram. He should get more carries than charles, and lots of TD's, and lots of receptions. He is great in pass pro and he is a great receiver out of the backfield so it wouldnt surprise me to see him on the field more than charles on passing downs. People are sleeping on hillis this year...just the way i like it!

Deuce McAllister tore his ACL in '05 and then had a big year in '06. It's not impossible, and the sample size of running backs as talented as Charles suffering ACL injuries in modern times is impossibly small.McCluster, Cassel, Breatson and others will probably get around 75 carries this year. I don't care how many carries the KC coaching staff wants to have, in reality, losing teams simply can't afford to run. I don't expect Kansas City to have a winning record this season, and I would project them at 475 carries. So that's 220 for Charlies, 180 or so for Hillis. Projecting 250 for Hillis or anything close to that means you have to assume too many things (i.e., KC is very good, Hillis gets more carries than Charles, no one else carries the ball for KC).

 

[redbullz]

he is the safer pick outta the 2 i would roll the dice on him especially were he is being drafted as a #3 back.

 

[Aggieelmore]

Charles is a risky pick at his adp. I will let someone else take that risk. If hillis is there in the 7th or 8th he will be on every one of my teams. His value in that area is amazing. He's basically a being drafted as a sleeper that has already proven himself. If he can succeed in Cleveland , he can succeed anywhere.

 

[Sea Duck]

If he can succeed in Cleveland , he can succeed anywhere.

I think you've got that backwards. Lots of guys succeeded in Cleveland and then sucked elsewhere.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Unless you're predicting an injury to Charles or a 12-4 season for KC, Peyton Hillis isn't sniffing 250 carries. I like him, but that's just not a realistic projection.

Well it might just be coachspeak but the KC coaching staff claims they want to run the ball 500 times this season. In that scenario I dont think hillis getting 250 carries is crazy at all...i think charles getting 250 carries coming off ac surgery is nuts. in fact i think that anyone who thinks charles is going to have a top 10 year this year is nuts. I dont care how talented that kid is no rb comes back full strength only 12 months removed from ACL tear. providing that charles stays healthy this year, he will be decent, but not at ALL worth his current ADP. next year he will return to full strngth and top 5 status. Hillis is healthy, and a battering ram. He should get more carries than charles, and lots of TD's, and lots of receptions. He is great in pass pro and he is a great receiver out of the backfield so it wouldnt surprise me to see him on the field more than charles on passing downs. People are sleeping on hillis this year...just the way i like it!

Deuce McAllister tore his ACL in '05 and then had a big year in '06. It's not impossible, and the sample size of running backs as talented as Charles suffering ACL injuries in modern times is impossibly small.McCluster, Cassel, Breatson and others will probably get around 75 carries this year. I don't care how many carries the KC coaching staff wants to have, in reality, losing teams simply can't afford to run. I don't expect Kansas City to have a winning record this season, and I would project them at 475 carries. So that's 220 for Charlies, 180 or so for Hillis. Projecting 250 for Hillis or anything close to that means you have to assume too many things (i.e., KC is very good, Hillis gets more carries than Charles, no one else carries the ball for KC).

X

 

[Run It Up]

I drafted him as my rb3 in a 14 team this week.

That being said, I still dont think its happening.

I dont expect much of anything from anyone in the KC offense.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Unless you're predicting an injury to Charles or a 12-4 season for KC, Peyton Hillis isn't sniffing 250 carries. I like him, but that's just not a realistic projection.

Well it might just be coachspeak but the KC coaching staff claims they want to run the ball 500 times this season. In that scenario I dont think hillis getting 250 carries is crazy at all...i think charles getting 250 carries coming off ac surgery is nuts. in fact i think that anyone who thinks charles is going to have a top 10 year this year is nuts. I dont care how talented that kid is no rb comes back full strength only 12 months removed from ACL tear. providing that charles stays healthy this year, he will be decent, but not at ALL worth his current ADP. next year he will return to full strngth and top 5 status. Hillis is healthy, and a battering ram. He should get more carries than charles, and lots of TD's, and lots of receptions. He is great in pass pro and he is a great receiver out of the backfield so it wouldnt surprise me to see him on the field more than charles on passing downs. People are sleeping on hillis this year...just the way i like it!

Deuce McAllister tore his ACL in '05 and then had a big year in '06. It's not impossible, and the sample size of running backs as talented as Charles suffering ACL injuries in modern times is impossibly small.McCluster, Cassel, Breatson and others will probably get around 75 carries this year. I don't care how many carries the KC coaching staff wants to have, in reality, losing teams simply can't afford to run. I don't expect Kansas City to have a winning record this season, and I would project them at 475 carries. So that's 220 for Charlies, 180 or so for Hillis. Projecting 250 for Hillis or anything close to that means you have to assume too many things (i.e., KC is very good, Hillis gets more carries than Charles, no one else carries the ball for KC).

The bolded really isn't far-fetched at all. Obviously Charles is a ridiculous talent, but even in his best year (2010) Thomas Jones got more carries (245 to 230). Charles, when healthy, split carries with a RB that IMO is a much worse player (old TJ) than is Peyton Hillis. Now Charles is returning from a serious knee injury. Obviously the new coaching staff could change things up, but I think that it's reasonable to expect Charles workload to be slightly down in 2012 as he recovers his form, and for Hillis to see more carries than Charles does.You are also underselling the Chiefs as a team IMO. They were 7-9 last year starting Tyler Palko and Jackie Battle for the last third of the season. With Cassel and Charles returning, and the addition of Hillis, is it unreasonable to see them winning a few more games? This team was 10-6 in 2010 and had 556 team rushing attempts that year. IMO 500 team rushes is within reach in 2011. Hillis with 250ish carries to Charles' 200ish isn't an unreasonable projection at all, IMO.

 

[sho nuff]

they signed him for a reason is what I'm thinkin..........I see 16-18 touches a game resulting in 9-12 tds this year. Happy to go get him anywhere after the 5th round

Loving him in my TD only league this year.

 

[Badgers Fan]

People are underrating the Chiefs. They have talent at every position except qb. And yes, that's the most important position..however Cassel has had two very solid seasons. All he really needs to be is respectable. This team could also use an in-shape Dwayne Bowe and have him report already. However, this team has enough talent and a decent enough schedule that they could push for 10 wins imo.

 

[Dismattle]

Unless you're predicting an injury to Charles or a 12-4 season for KC, Peyton Hillis isn't sniffing 250 carries. I like him, but that's just not a realistic projection.

Well it might just be coachspeak but the KC coaching staff claims they want to run the ball 500 times this season. In that scenario I dont think hillis getting 250 carries is crazy at all...i think charles getting 250 carries coming off ac surgery is nuts. in fact i think that anyone who thinks charles is going to have a top 10 year this year is nuts. I dont care how talented that kid is no rb comes back full strength only 12 months removed from ACL tear. providing that charles stays healthy this year, he will be decent, but not at ALL worth his current ADP. next year he will return to full strngth and top 5 status. Hillis is healthy, and a battering ram. He should get more carries than charles, and lots of TD's, and lots of receptions. He is great in pass pro and he is a great receiver out of the backfield so it wouldnt surprise me to see him on the field more than charles on passing downs. People are sleeping on hillis this year...just the way i like it!

Deuce McAllister tore his ACL in '05 and then had a big year in '06. It's not impossible, and the sample size of running backs as talented as Charles suffering ACL injuries in modern times is impossibly small.McCluster, Cassel, Breatson and others will probably get around 75 carries this year. I don't care how many carries the KC coaching staff wants to have, in reality, losing teams simply can't afford to run. I don't expect Kansas City to have a winning record this season, and I would project them at 475 carries. So that's 220 for Charlies, 180 or so for Hillis. Projecting 250 for Hillis or anything close to that means you have to assume too many things (i.e., KC is very good, Hillis gets more carries than Charles, no one else carries the ball for KC).

Hey Chase,Im usually all over your posts because they're spot on (imo) But could you expound some on how you would expect most games to go? I mean KC appears to have a pretty good Def (which lends itself to operating a strong run game) imo opposing teams will key up early and often on Charles, while we may see some 3rd down Hillis catch's. I believe teams will make the Chiefs beat them in the air (which could be possible, when motivated w/o Charles, Berry they beat the Pack) Basically the offense may wear some defense's down. Its possible to see nothin but Hillis the entire 4th Qtr (I have a feelin he wants it too) Last Season, it appears only three games would not be subject to such a game plan. imo this Season, it may well be the first three games, and usually it takes an offense at least a game to find its rhythm. Now if you believe for a second that KC can go 12-4, I dunno how fans would react to another Charles injury with a game under control.

Could you see 210 carries/30 receptions? OP rounded em up to 250, But he could be roundin down in his estimate. What if its more like 225 plus carrys, and closer to 40 catchs's. I wouldnt want to start a post hype'n Hillis, because of players like McCluster, But he only had 114 carry's w/o Charles.

Bottom line the Offense has to take whats given, and all camp McCluster has played in the slot. IF Charles isnt in the gamme, I would expect to see McCluster covered well (possibly a spy like coverage) Silva says KC is geared up for "smmash mmouth" http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/40484/179/2012-offensive-line-rankings?pg=1

The only reasonable way to discount a good year from Hillis, would be an outstanding Season for Charles, in combination w a real swiss chess Defense. (opposing team up two scores, allowing short yardage plays only) OR at least thats the way I understand the situation currently.

fwiw I also in no way shape or form believed the Giants had any chance in going to the SB, much less winning it. So yeah Im wrong alot BigTime!

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Unless you're predicting an injury to Charles or a 12-4 season for KC, Peyton Hillis isn't sniffing 250 carries. I like him, but that's just not a realistic projection.

Well it might just be coachspeak but the KC coaching staff claims they want to run the ball 500 times this season.

The 500 attempts is not totally unrealistic at all. The Chiefs ran the ball 487 times last season and that was with Charles leaving in Week 2. The carries were split up amongst a bunch of backs: Jones (153); Battle (149); McCluster (118); others (71) - but that was because no one really stepped up.With a better defense and a more productive passing game, 500 is attaianable. Hillis getting 250 would likely be unrealistic but 200 carries and 25-30 receptions is not.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Unless you're predicting an injury to Charles or a 12-4 season for KC, Peyton Hillis isn't sniffing 250 carries. I like him, but that's just not a realistic projection.

Well it might just be coachspeak but the KC coaching staff claims they want to run the ball 500 times this season. In that scenario I dont think hillis getting 250 carries is crazy at all...i think charles getting 250 carries coming off ac surgery is nuts. in fact i think that anyone who thinks charles is going to have a top 10 year this year is nuts. I dont care how talented that kid is no rb comes back full strength only 12 months removed from ACL tear. providing that charles stays healthy this year, he will be decent, but not at ALL worth his current ADP. next year he will return to full strngth and top 5 status. Hillis is healthy, and a battering ram. He should get more carries than charles, and lots of TD's, and lots of receptions. He is great in pass pro and he is a great receiver out of the backfield so it wouldnt surprise me to see him on the field more than charles on passing downs. People are sleeping on hillis this year...just the way i like it!

Deuce McAllister tore his ACL in '05 and then had a big year in '06. It's not impossible, and the sample size of running backs as talented as Charles suffering ACL injuries in modern times is impossibly small.McCluster, Cassel, Breatson and others will probably get around 75 carries this year. I don't care how many carries the KC coaching staff wants to have, in reality, losing teams simply can't afford to run. I don't expect Kansas City to have a winning record this season, and I would project them at 475 carries. So that's 220 for Charlies, 180 or so for Hillis. Projecting 250 for Hillis or anything close to that means you have to assume too many things (i.e., KC is very good, Hillis gets more carries than Charles, no one else carries the ball for KC).

They had 487 last season - and getting Cassel, Charles, Berry and Moecki back healthy should mean that they are a better team than last season at least.

 

[FDC]

Hillis was never a homerun type threat so his fantasy value relied on his receiving, ridiculous number of carries, and TDs.

With a healthy Charles, you probably eliminate 2 of those things. I think he is BJGEesque this year, yet in an unproven offense.

Of course he has high upside with a Charles injury, but you could make that case for a lot of backups around the league.

 

[Dismattle]

Hillis was never a homerun type threat so his fantasy value relied on his receiving, ridiculous number of carries, and TDs.

With a healthy Charles, you probably eliminate 2 of those things. I think he is BJGEesque this year, yet in an unproven offense.

Of course he has high upside with a Charles injury, but you could make that case for a lot of backups around the league.

I tend to disagree w the injury talk, Id expect to see more of Cyrus Gray, and well he may not fill Charles shoes, which sorta negates a real gameplan ie. Defense doesnt have to center on stopping the run so much. Honestly I just dont care much for depth charts overall

/Edit Q. So you don't think Hillis has high upside with a Charles injury? Im in no way an expert, and been quite busy with work and Online Gaming. Its quite possible you already know the answer's! imo Gray may see action with or without an injury. But w/ injury I would expect a real increase, that might be prefaced w Defenders using five DB's, not 8 man fronts. Now we would have to consider how much steam the team has dealing w such an injury, and almost the luck of Gray being able to break one, taking it to the house. The only team Ive seen that could possibly have won a game by continuing to run the ball was the Bears (a few Season ago). They chose not too, and it does go against common sence. Please read this: http://www.nfl.com/combine/profiles/peyton-hillis?id=1980 Heres the part which I believe some Coach's take to heart: Hillis has good value as a short-yardage runner, but to have him carry the ball often would not be beneficial, as he does not have the second gear or speed to make big gains on the ground. He has natural hands for short-area tosses, but his speed issue will prevent him from being lined wide for the vertical passing game.

Now KC could have picked up Ryan Grant or (whoever), to be more of a "replacement" due to injury, but I believe they used the draft (dunno maybe there is no "Plan B") But I do believe if time isnt an issue (KC already winning) it comes down to things like ball security and experience. Basically w Charles, I could conceive a game where KC can make adjustmments at half time. Nothin against KC or Gray, I would believe there is no changine game plan if its working w/o Charles.

btw if your trying to make the argument that Charles is used sparingly to bait teams for Deep throws, or Big runs, I would say thats possible. I believe we can agree that Hillis is capable of performing as an every down back. However this isnt like Pocket Hurculeus R. Jennings though, here's a chart w a different view/take http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/04/20/fantasy-2012-tamme-index-running-backs/ Quote Charles and Hillis will both be owned in your league. McCluster would step in on passing downs if one of the top-two went down. He’s also likely to have RB/WR eligibility, so he’s certainly worth a roster spot if forced to handle No. 2 RB duties. Cyrus Gray should be monitored. End Quote

fwiw Hillis projects 177 attempts , 21 receptions (four fumbles) per PFF, which I feel may be conservative. But they could be right on all accounts, including the "bench" status..

 

[FDC]

Hillis was never a homerun type threat so his fantasy value relied on his receiving, ridiculous number of carries, and TDs.With a healthy Charles, you probably eliminate 2 of those things. I think he is BJGEesque this year, yet in an unproven offense.Of course he has high upside with a Charles injury, but you could make that case for a lot of backups around the league.

I tend to disagree w the injury talk, Id expect to see more of Cyrus Gray, and well he may not fill Charles shoes, which sorta negates a real gameplan ie. Defense doesnt have to center on stopping the run so much. Honestly I just dont care much for depth charts overall

So you don't think Hillis has high upside with a Charles injury?

 

[mrip541]

I think the question is will you take him ahead of other round 7 guys like Spiller, D. Brown and Starks. I put him ahead of Spiller and Starks but I keep going back and forth on Brown.

 

[FDC]

I think the question is will you take him ahead of other round 7 guys like Spiller, D. Brown and Starks. I put him ahead of Spiller and Starks but I keep going back and forth on Brown.

I'd agree with that. I would take Brown over Hillis right now.

 

[chickensoup]

I think the question is will you take him ahead of other round 7 guys like Spiller, D. Brown and Starks. I put him ahead of Spiller and Starks but I keep going back and forth on Brown.

I'd agree with that. I would take Brown over Hillis right now.

I'd take Hillis myself. He has a lot to play for and you know he is getting 15ish touches a game (running and receiving). I think the Chiefs are strait up a better team than the Colts and it's a mostly running division so a lot of close games (more attempts generally)

 

[Mr. Soup Nazi]

KC as a team gets Charles, Berry and Moeaki back. Cassel has looked great so far according to ALL sources in KC camp. The Chiefs are going to be a tough draw throughout the year and could easily win their division while Denver waits on Peyton to get back to form.

Now what does that mean for Hillis? He's the short yardage/goalline back and he's the third down back as well. Yards are yards and TD's are TD's. He'll likely have over 1,000 total yards and close to 10 TD's if his role is truly this for the season and the Chiefs are competitive. His floor (if healthy) is probably 800yds/6TD's and a ceiling of 1200/15. If he ends up on the low end, he's a decent bye week replacement. If he is in the middle, he's a borderline RB2...if he's at the high end, he's top 10. All you can do is guess at this point and I think he's a safe bet to be valuable, the only question is how valuable.

 

[Mr. Soup Nazi]

I think the question is will you take him ahead of other round 7 guys like Spiller, D. Brown and Starks. I put him ahead of Spiller and Starks but I keep going back and forth on Brown.

I'd agree with that. I would take Brown over Hillis right now.

I like Hillis better than Brown myself.

 

[FF Ninja]

Unless you're predicting an injury to Charles or a 12-4 season for KC, Peyton Hillis isn't sniffing 250 carries. I like him, but that's just not a realistic projection.

Well it might just be coachspeak but the KC coaching staff claims they want to run the ball 500 times this season. In that scenario I dont think hillis getting 250 carries is crazy at all...i think charles getting 250 carries coming off ac surgery is nuts. in fact i think that anyone who thinks charles is going to have a top 10 year this year is nuts. I dont care how talented that kid is no rb comes back full strength only 12 months removed from ACL tear. providing that charles stays healthy this year, he will be decent, but not at ALL worth his current ADP. next year he will return to full strngth and top 5 status. Hillis is healthy, and a battering ram. He should get more carries than charles, and lots of TD's, and lots of receptions. He is great in pass pro and he is a great receiver out of the backfield so it wouldnt surprise me to see him on the field more than charles on passing downs. People are sleeping on hillis this year...just the way i like it!

Deuce McAllister tore his ACL in '05 and then had a big year in '06. It's not impossible, and the sample size of running backs as talented as Charles suffering ACL injuries in modern times is impossibly small.McCluster, Cassel, Breatson and others will probably get around 75 carries this year. I don't care how many carries the KC coaching staff wants to have, in reality, losing teams simply can't afford to run. I don't expect Kansas City to have a winning record this season, and I would project them at 475 carries. So that's 220 for Charlies, 180 or so for Hillis. Projecting 250 for Hillis or anything close to that means you have to assume too many things (i.e., KC is very good, Hillis gets more carries than Charles, no one else carries the ball for KC).

People state perceptions as fact a lot here, so I'll preface this by saying that I simply perceived Deuce to be more of a between the tackles runner whereas Jamaal relies on the ability to get to the outside corner. I think Deuce's game was more able to take a hit on speed/quickness. But I could be wrong. Maybe Charles makes his plays on vision more than speed.Additionally, Deuce didn't exactly have "a big year". He managed 4.3 ypc and 6.6 ypr which were both below his career averages at the time despite having the advantage of Drew Brees opening up defenses in 2006 (Brees' first year with the Saints). Even with two lackluster seasons after 2006, Deuce's career averages stand at 4.3 ypc and 7.4 ypr. I liked Deuce as a player, but I think most decent RBs would've put up 4.3 ypc in his role on that offense that year. So I don't think comparing Jamaal Charles' 2012 season to Deuce McAllister's 2006 season is relevant.

Another perception of mine is that Hillis has a more complete game than Charles. Home run threat or not, 4.4 ypc when you are the only threat on an offense is not shabby. I think he'll do better than that in KC. If Charles is no longer a 6.0 ypc guy and suddently both backs are around 4.8 ypc then what advantage does he have over Hillis that makes it a forgone conclusion that he gets more carries? If Hillis is moving then chains and Charles isn't the same explosive guy he was before then I don't see a reason that he'll get 210 carries to Hillis' 180.

I've been on the Hillis bandwagon ever since I heard he was reunited with his 2010 offensive coordinator, so I'm going to have to hear some solid reasons for why a RB with a slight build, coming off ACL is going to get more carries than the bruiser on a ground and pound team. I don't think they'll go 12-4, either, but this division is wide open in my eyes. I like their chances at 8-8 and with Hillis' blocking ability and hands it isn't a certainty that he'll be riding the pine if they are down 14 in the 3rd quarter.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

rocketing up draft boards

 

[Shawn]

Top 10*

 

[Shawn]

I want forte jamaal and hillis as my rb3

 

[jurb26]

Both guys will have value because I think KC easily tops 500 rushes this year. I've actually got them projected for about 515. I can see Hilis getting 250 of that and Charles 195, leaving 70 for the rest of the team. The reception distribution will be in Charles favor however, I'm guessing 50 to 20. So Hillis gets 270 touches and Charles gets 245. The main thing here is that Charles will do far more with his touches IMO. I've got I'm at a 5.5 YPA and Hillis at a 4.4. I've got Charles at 8 YPC and Hillis also at 8. These averages factor a recovery period for Charles as both are well bellow his career averages. So Charles with 1472 total yards and Hillis with 1200 total yds. The real question now becomes TDs. I'm far less confident in projecting TDs but I'd guess 9 for Charles and 10 for Hillis.

On another note, I've stated my opinion on KC several times now this off-season but I'll state it again. Tis is going to. Be a very good team. Anyone who thinks they will have a loosing record is out of their mind IMO. KC will have one one the best defenses in the NFL this year, top 5. This is a team that won 7 games last year with out their 3 best players from week 2 on and they also lost their starting QB for a 3rd the year. They upgraded the Oline this offseason and also upgraded the defense. I think KC wins 11 games or more.

 

[ShaHBucks]

I've mentioned Hillis in a few underrated post. He has to top any rb2 committiees. Charles was arguable the best back in the league but he isn't built for the workload Hillis can handle. Not to mention he has hands like you would want from your rb so he doesn't have to come out on passing situations. One hiccup to Charles and he can repeat 2010 and probably finish near the Steven Jackson tier.

 

[Run It Up]

Someone has to fill the massive void that Mathews used to encompass.

Why not Charles and Hillis. It was big enough for two people already, its perfect.

 

[UKColt]

For the position he's being drafted in, Hillis is ridiculously good value.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

ADP of 78 and climbing (up 8 according to FBG), RB31. Still a very good value to me, though I expect his ADP to keep climbing. I don't have him as top 15 but I do have him as top 25. I'm thinking about reserving my 6th round pick for him to make sure I get him as he'll probably by my RB2.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

Also, I'd be perfectly happy drafting Charles as my RB1 in the 2nd and Hillis as my RB2 in the 6th/7th. That's not a handcuff situation, I'd be starting 2 RBs from the same team. Is this dumb? I like it. I think both will be productive enough to play and if one gets hurt the other should theoretically be better by absorbing the carries.

 

[Bronx Bomber]

I understand that Hillis is a good value at his ADP and the role he will paly. But why are we so confident in his health? Other than his 2010 year when has he stayed healthy all year. Didn't he have a different illness, injury, mental (CIA) breakdown -whatever that was about, issues all last year or was that just him being a free agent at the end of the year. He could just as easily miss a chunk of time as Charles could. Im not trying to discount, bash, whatever Hillis. I just keep seeing the Charles is coming off injury/ Hillis is healthy debate and I find it curious.

 

[bulger2holt]

Both guys will have value because I think KC easily tops 500 rushes this year. I've actually got them projected for about 515. I can see Hilis getting 250 of that and Charles 195, leaving 70 for the rest of the team. The reception distribution will be in Charles favor however, I'm guessing 50 to 20. So Hillis gets 270 touches and Charles gets 245. The main thing here is that Charles will do far more with his touches IMO. I've got I'm at a 5.5 YPA and Hillis at a 4.4. I've got Charles at 8 YPC and Hillis also at 8. These averages factor a recovery period for Charles as both are well bellow his career averages. So Charles with 1472 total yards and Hillis with 1200 total yds. The real question now becomes TDs. I'm far less confident in projecting TDs but I'd guess 9 for Charles and 10 for Hillis.On another note, I've stated my opinion on KC several times now this off-season but I'll state it again. Tis is going to. Be a very good team. Anyone who thinks they will have a loosing record is out of their mind IMO. KC will have one one the best defenses in the NFL this year, top 5. This is a team that won 7 games last year with out their 3 best players from week 2 on and they also lost their starting QB for a 3rd the year. They upgraded the Oline this offseason and also upgraded the defense. I think KC wins 11 games or more.

I am on their bandwagon. I also think Cassel is going to have a nice year with Bowe and Baldwin. I am targeting Hillis as my RB3, Baldwin and taking a late flyer on Cassel as my QB2.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Also, I'd be perfectly happy drafting Charles as my RB1 in the 2nd and Hillis as my RB2 in the 6th/7th. That's not a handcuff situation, I'd be starting 2 RBs from the same team. Is this dumb? I like it. I think both will be productive enough to play and if one gets hurt the other should theoretically be better by absorbing the carries.

I'd be very wary of having 2 rbs starting from the same team. What happens when they fall behind and need to just throw it? It's not like they have a dominatin defense and they will be facing Peyton and River 4 times likely forcin them to throw considerably.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Also, I'd be perfectly happy drafting Charles as my RB1 in the 2nd and Hillis as my RB2 in the 6th/7th. That's not a handcuff situation, I'd be starting 2 RBs from the same team. Is this dumb? I like it. I think both will be productive enough to play and if one gets hurt the other should theoretically be better by absorbing the carries.

I'd be very wary of having 2 rbs starting from the same team. What happens when they fall behind and need to just throw it? It's not like they have a dominatin defense and they will be facing Peyton and River 4 times likely forcin them to throw considerably.

didn't they face rivers 2x last year?

 

[ShaHBucks]

Also, I'd be perfectly happy drafting Charles as my RB1 in the 2nd and Hillis as my RB2 in the 6th/7th. That's not a handcuff situation, I'd be starting 2 RBs from the same team. Is this dumb? I like it. I think both will be productive enough to play and if one gets hurt the other should theoretically be better by absorbing the carries.

If I did this I'd make Hillis my 3rd rb. With the high end handcuffs you can definitely move guys up your rankings. Like if you have Foster who do you think will hold more value to your team as a 4th rb James Starks or Ben Tate? Most handcuff situations are not worth the roster spot but this is a good one because the both can be productive. Your team will be more volitile I'd suppose.

 

[Run It Up]

Also, I'd be perfectly happy drafting Charles as my RB1 in the 2nd and Hillis as my RB2 in the 6th/7th. That's not a handcuff situation, I'd be starting 2 RBs from the same team. Is this dumb? I like it. I think both will be productive enough to play and if one gets hurt the other should theoretically be better by absorbing the carries.

In 2010 I was in two leagues where two owners owned T. Jones and J. Charles and started both of them a few weeks. This was over legitimate RB3s. I think its bad only because I dont think the other is RB2 material, and is at best flex material.

 

[macknova]

I'm definitely looking for Hillis in the 6th. Love him this year. I like Donald Brown, too, but I like that Hillis will get goalline carries, and he can also catch the ball. Charles off an ACL is scary, even if it was early in the season. If he's not all the way back, Hillis could become a workhorse for them with Charles as the change of pace back. I could see lineups with both Hillis and Charles in the game, too

I really like the WRs going in that area, but Hillis is the RB I'm targeting in that area.