Just because he consistently gets you 20 pts each week doesn't make him worthy of a 1st round pick. There are plenty of guys drafted a few rounds later who have been just as reliable (McNabb, Bulger, Eli, Vick) and another group of late picks who have been good for 20 pts most of the time (Kitna, Brees, Rivers). The supply of available QBs is just too large to justify taking Manning in the 1st.Oh, and if you look at his game logs from last year, he was held under 20 pts in 8 of his 16 games. And this year it's 2 of 6 games. So it's not like he's money in the bank every single week.
There are not "plenty of guys who have been just as reliable". And even if you do consider 4 guys to be plenty, could you have picked those 4 guys out at the beginning of the year?2005, "reliable guys" were Peyton, Palmer and Brady.2004, "reliable guys" were Culpepper and Peyton....then a collection of McNabb, Green, Favre, Plummer, Brooks2003, "reliable guys" were Manning, Culpepper, Green, and Hasselback2002, "reliable guys" were Culpepper, Bledsoe, Peyton, Green, Vick, Brooks2001, "reliable guys" were Warner, Garcia, Favre, Peyton.So, you are telling me that you could have predicted that McNabb, Bulger, Vick and Eli would have been putting up comparable numbers to Peyton? Actually, it is Peyton, Kitna and Bulger in most leagues who trail McNabb.Each year, there are guys who put up excellent numbers, and if you could target them in the later rounds, and "guess" correctly, then good luck to you.Palmer, Brady, Green, Plummer, Brooks, Delhomme, Favre, Hasselback, etc. None of these guys would make me question someone drafting Manning in the first round.The past 6 years, he is the only QB to be in the top tier every year. Culpepper had a great stretch from 2002-2004, we have seen how that has worked this year. Trent Green was always a great value pick. Not so much this year. Carson Palmer, mmm, not so good this year.McNabb was the one guy who had the track record and was being undervalued. He was the guy to target, obviously easier to say now that he is the top point getter.This year, I would expect it to be McNabb and Peyton, then a pretty good gap until you get to the Bulger, Eli, Kitna group.2 things seem to be certain. Manning will be in the top tier. And the other guys in the top tier, and the tier just below, will be different each and every year.