Peyton Manning was (1 Viewer)

[Mystery Achiever]

Peyton Manning was not a 1st round draft pick. Now, I understand that as far as fantasy points go, he is not anywhere near McNabb....but to all of the people who laughed at those of us who took Peyton at 5-12 the first round (LJ, LT2, Shaun, Tiki)....are probably not laughing so hard with the amount of Busts that there were in the 1st round.Ronnie Brown, Edge, Shaun, and many others....It is nice to know that you will always have a player on your team that is good for 20. I just had to get this off of my chest, cuz I took so much crap for drafting him early. I never would have taken him 1-4, but after Tiki, it looked like a grouping of 10-12 backs who were all the same quality.

Manning is averaging 17.8 ppg in my league. vick, who i took around round 10 (only ten teams), is averaging 15.6. i don't laught at others for their choices, but if i did, i still would be. eta - relative to first round busts, my first rounder in that league was tomlinson :not a bust:in my other league, first round pick was jackson :not a bust:as long as you're happy with manning, that's cool; but i don't agree with the bust logic.

 

[dawgtrails]

Peyton Manning was not a 1st round draft pick. Now, I understand that as far as fantasy points go, he is not anywhere near McNabb....but to all of the people who laughed at those of us who took Peyton at 5-12 the first round (LJ, LT2, Shaun, Tiki)....are probably not laughing so hard with the amount of Busts that there were in the 1st round.Ronnie Brown, Edge, Shaun, and many others....It is nice to know that you will always have a player on your team that is good for 20. I just had to get this off of my chest, cuz I took so much crap for drafting him early. I never would have taken him 1-4, but after Tiki, it looked like a grouping of 10-12 backs who were all the same quality.

Manning is averaging 17.8 ppg in my league. vick, who i took around round 10 (only ten teams), is averaging 15.6. i don't laught at others for their choices, but if i did, i still would be.

I dont think that is the norm though. In my 3 leagues I am in (maybe my scoring is strange but I dont think so), it goes like this.McNabbManningBulgerthen there is quite the dropoff. With 10 guys all within a point or so of each other.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Manning is averaging 17.8 ppg in my league. vick, who i took around round 10 (only ten teams), is averaging 15.6. i don't laught at others for their choices, but if i did, i still would be.

I dont think that is the norm though. In my 3 leagues I am in (maybe my scoring is strange but I dont think so), it goes like this.McNabbManningBulgerthen there is quite the dropoff. With 10 guys all within a point or so of each other.

okay, i checked my other league which has very diff. scoring. Manning averages 24.4. vick is down at 19.2. But my qb in this league who i took in round ten of a twelve teamer is Favre - at 21 ppg. only 3ppg difference. That is value to me.(The league where Vick does better rewards rushing TDs more than passing)

 

[John Mamula]

Let's look at the Manning owner in my WCOFF league compared to our late round QB Hydra...

Week 1:

Manning 17

Batch 24

+7

Week 2:

Manning 32

Plummer 7

-18

Week 3:

Manning 21

A Smith 23

-16

Week 4:

Manning 21

D Brees 24

-13

Week 5:

Manning 16

A Smith 20

-9

Week 6:

Manning (bye) Gradkowski fill-in: 18

Rivers 25

-2

Week 7:

Manning 33

Rivers 21

-14

So the PPG differential between the Manning owner and ours at QB is merely 2 PPG, with a good performance by their bye week fill in for Manning. Additionally, our QBBC has outscored Manning and his bye week fill in 5 of the 7 weeks. The reason why you should note the bye week fill in for Manning is that owners who take Manning early notoriously wait on a QB as they know they will be starting Manning every week. That weak bye week fill in must be accounted for when comparing the effect of drafting Manning.

Do you think that we did not make up that point differential with our 2nd round pick compared to their 11th round pick?

 

[sheetstainer]

Andre Johnson is 8th overall in total points in my ppr league - I knew I should have taken him at 1.08 on draft day.

he was my first pick in the 32 man league i play in. i drafted in the 28th spot and i'm quite happy with him.

 

[VaCatFan]

Ok, I like the differing opinions, but what about Peyton in the first in a 6pt patd dynasty league. You're going be holding onto this guy for probably the next 10 years and getting performance out of him. That's one less pick to worry about each year when drafting rookies.

 

[John Mamula]

Ok, I like the differing opinions, but what about Peyton in the first in a 6pt patd dynasty league. You're going be holding onto this guy for probably the next 10 years and getting performance out of him. That's one less pick to worry about each year when drafting rookies.

in dynasty leagues i value QBs and WRs significantly more.if you can lock up a stud QB or WR for 10-15 years, you are golden. RBs on the other hand are good for about half of that at best, and there is always a new rookie RB that can make an immediate impact in year 1, where stud WRs and QBs need to be groomed typically a bit more.Alexander has been a stud for 5 years, and likely has less than 3 good years left.

 

[j3r3m3y]

Ok, I like the differing opinions, but what about Peyton in the first in a 6pt patd dynasty league. You're going be holding onto this guy for probably the next 10 years and getting performance out of him. That's one less pick to worry about each year when drafting rookies.

I agree with your point, only flaweyton wont be playing for 10 more years. At least not at this level of production.But yeah, if I were in a Dynasty draft that gave 6 points per passing TD I would take Peyton late in the first.

 

[dawgtrails]

Let's look at the Manning owner in my WCOFF league compared to our late round QB Hydra...Week 1:Manning 17Batch 24+7Week 2:Manning 32Plummer 7-18Week 3:Manning 21A Smith 23-16Week 4:Manning 21D Brees 24-13Week 5:Manning 16A Smith 20-9Week 6:Manning (bye) Gradkowski fill-in: 18Rivers 25-2Week 7:Manning 33Rivers 21-14So the PPG differential between the Manning owner and ours at QB is merely 2 PPG, with a good performance by their bye week fill in for Manning. Additionally, our QBBC has outscored Manning and his bye week fill in 5 of the 7 weeks. The reason why you should note the bye week fill in for Manning is that owners who take Manning early notoriously wait on a QB as they know they will be starting Manning every week. That weak bye week fill in must be accounted for when comparing the effect of drafting Manning. Do you think that we did not make up that point differential with our 2nd round pick compared to their 11th round pick?

You have all those QBs on your roster?? Batch, Plummer, Smith, Rivers and Brees?If those were waiver pickups, did you miss out on any other pickups? Furrey, Jennings, Leon, etc?

 

[John Mamula]

Let's look at the Manning owner in my WCOFF league compared to our late round QB Hydra...Week 1:Manning 17Batch 24+7Week 2:Manning 32Plummer 7-18Week 3:Manning 21A Smith 23-16Week 4:Manning 21D Brees 24-13Week 5:Manning 16A Smith 20-9Week 6:Manning (bye) Gradkowski fill-in: 18Rivers 25-2Week 7:Manning 33Rivers 21-14So the PPG differential between the Manning owner and ours at QB is merely 2 PPG, with a good performance by their bye week fill in for Manning. Additionally, our QBBC has outscored Manning and his bye week fill in 5 of the 7 weeks. The reason why you should note the bye week fill in for Manning is that owners who take Manning early notoriously wait on a QB as they know they will be starting Manning every week. That weak bye week fill in must be accounted for when comparing the effect of drafting Manning. Do you think that we did not make up that point differential with our 2nd round pick compared to their 11th round pick?

You have all those QBs on your roster?? Batch, Plummer, Smith, Rivers and Brees?If those were waiver pickups, did you miss out on any other pickups? Furrey, Jennings, Leon, etc?

we dropped batch after week 1.the rest all are on our roster.we don't need furrey (he would be WR5 on our team), and jennings was drafted before we could get him, as we were high on him. i think we put a bid on leon but got outbid.actually i just realized i should have had frye in there instead of brees for week 4.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Your argument is fine, but you cant really throw Shaun Alexander in the "bust" mix because of injury. If Peyton blows out his knee next week it doesnt mean you made a huge draft mistake. The writing was on the wall for Edge, Jordan Caddy and some of the other questionable 1st rounders.That being said... I would take a top RB any day of the week and then grab a McNabb, Eli, Carson, Bulger, Brady type later on. Peyton is a stud but take a look at the theory of Value Based Drafting sometime.

Hey, be cool to the guy.VBD drafting had Manning ranked 10th in my scoring system (6 per TD and 1 for 20 and -3 for picks). It is not a stretch to pick him 4th when you consider other variables such as injuries and roster spaces. For example, if you believe that injuries are totally random then that is not a factor, but I can tell as to having manning and not having him, Manning is someone you just throw into the lineup every day and you just get his backup for his bye week. That frees up valuable roster spots. Of course, Manning got the worst hit of his career this past week, but came back and was great.VBD only works if the values you put in are correct and the HUGE FLAW YOU ARE MISSING is that RB's are more open to fluctuations than a guy like Manning. if I picked 5th Manning would have been my guy and I would have been thrilled. I wrote many posts about this (if I could find them I would post) and I stick to the theory. At the end of the day this guy is correct and I am confident that once you get beyond the few top guys he would be correct more times than not.Bottom line is that Manning in the #4-5 spot allows you to be very solid because there are so many RB's that you could have filled in this year and I said it before that 4-14 were pretty close. McNabb is doing great for some people (he was ranked 4th), but if you didn't get McNabb the difference is large and much larger than the difference between McGahee and Ronnie Brown (the best of the high ranked guys after the big 4) who was ranked 5th by FBG. A matter of fact, this year your choices of the RB's were better if you didn't grab the Edge's, Lamont's, McGahees', Rudi's and Caddy's of the world and grabbed Manning. Later on guys like Tatum Bell, Gore, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones, Chester Taylor were all better 2nd round choices (for those who like to look in hindsight). I said it before and I will say it again, those of you who take the RB rule as an automatic will get burned many times but specifically this year.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Let's look at the Manning owner in my WCOFF league compared to our late round QB Hydra...Week 1:Manning 17Batch 24+7Week 2:Manning 32Plummer 7-18Week 3:Manning 21A Smith 23-16Week 4:Manning 21D Brees 24-13Week 5:Manning 16A Smith 20-9Week 6:Manning (bye) Gradkowski fill-in: 18Rivers 25-2Week 7:Manning 33Rivers 21-14So the PPG differential between the Manning owner and ours at QB is merely 2 PPG, with a good performance by their bye week fill in for Manning. Additionally, our QBBC has outscored Manning and his bye week fill in 5 of the 7 weeks. The reason why you should note the bye week fill in for Manning is that owners who take Manning early notoriously wait on a QB as they know they will be starting Manning every week. That weak bye week fill in must be accounted for when comparing the effect of drafting Manning. Do you think that we did not make up that point differential with our 2nd round pick compared to their 11th round pick?

You have all those QBs on your roster?? Batch, Plummer, Smith, Rivers and Brees?If those were waiver pickups, did you miss out on any other pickups? Furrey, Jennings, Leon, etc?

we dropped batch after week 1.the rest all are on our roster.we don't need furrey (he would be WR5 on our team), and jennings was drafted before we could get him, as we were high on him. i think we put a bid on leon but got outbid.actually i just realized i should have had frye in there instead of brees for week 4.

Bagger-As always you make some very good points. However, I think that there is a difference in standard FF rules and WCOFF, where you don't have to pick a starter. Manning's value (actually everyone's, but particularly a start 1 position) drops significantly when he is against a field of lesser players. With Batch specifically, you knew you would get good points from him in week 1 ( a great move for a late/last round pick). However, when you must pick a starter, then his value goes up, because most owners will at least sometimes pick the wrong starter.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Let's look at the Manning owner in my WCOFF league compared to our late round QB Hydra...Week 1:Manning 17Batch 24+7Week 2:Manning 32Plummer 7-18Week 3:Manning 21A Smith 23-16Week 4:Manning 21D Brees 24-13Week 5:Manning 16A Smith 20-9Week 6:Manning (bye) Gradkowski fill-in: 18Rivers 25-2Week 7:Manning 33Rivers 21-14So the PPG differential between the Manning owner and ours at QB is merely 2 PPG, with a good performance by their bye week fill in for Manning. Additionally, our QBBC has outscored Manning and his bye week fill in 5 of the 7 weeks. The reason why you should note the bye week fill in for Manning is that owners who take Manning early notoriously wait on a QB as they know they will be starting Manning every week. That weak bye week fill in must be accounted for when comparing the effect of drafting Manning. Do you think that we did not make up that point differential with our 2nd round pick compared to their 11th round pick?

So you have used FOUR slots for players? That has HUGE value. Let's assume you could get these guys on waivers, 1) then you might have been missing other players you could have used, 2) Your league allows QB's on waivers as most of the players you used had been claimed in my leagues 3) you might have been very lucky with your pickups as your scores were VERY good playing the matchup game. I mean you started Charlie Batch week 1...C'mon...I would bet that other QBBC's have not fared as well. I will say though that there have been some decent QB's that were available very late this year (of course in hindsight) such as Pennington, Smith, Rivers and Kitna.Flip it around, though, couldn't you have played teh matchup game at RB as well? If your roster spots would have been filled with Fred Taylor, Kevin Jones, Tatum Bell, and even Frank Gore you could have been fine as well.

 

[Bri]

I think the OPs point is lost here. Manning has done better than Edge Shaun and some other 1st round picks and better than Chad and some other 2nd rounders.

I already stated I think the other picks, how he followed up Manning pick, matterred more. Taking a QB really makes you backtrack for RB and then it might make you backtrack for WRs and you could always feel a round late. Ya gotta draft smart if you take Manning.

IIRC Yudkin broke this down well this summer. I can't find the post searching.

One post here was Andre is 8th so he should have been picked at 1.08 or somesuch. Yeah he went later so you play off the ADP but if he was drafted at 1.08 that is a fine to very good pick. You don't get value in round 1 and people that try get egg on their face. Talking about later rounds is quite different IMO

 

[Liquid Tension]

Good feedback rapidfireweasel explaining Baggers ability to not have to start the correct guy. In that format I agree Manning is less valuable. But anyone in a 6 TD leagues as mine knows the value of having Manning to not only score big points, but to free you up to make moves. In both my other leagues where I don't have Manning I have 3/4 QB's on my roster and it impacts other positions greatly. It is even costly from a waiver standpoint as we get charged per transaction.

 

[Bri]

Let's look at the Manning owner in my WCOFF league compared to our late round QB Hydra...Week 1:Manning 17Batch 24+7Week 2:Manning 32Plummer 7-18Week 3:Manning 21A Smith 23-16Week 4:Manning 21D Brees 24-13Week 5:Manning 16A Smith 20-9Week 6:Manning (bye) Gradkowski fill-in: 18Rivers 25-2Week 7:Manning 33Rivers 21-14So the PPG differential between the Manning owner and ours at QB is merely 2 PPG, with a good performance by their bye week fill in for Manning. Additionally, our QBBC has outscored Manning and his bye week fill in 5 of the 7 weeks. The reason why you should note the bye week fill in for Manning is that owners who take Manning early notoriously wait on a QB as they know they will be starting Manning every week. That weak bye week fill in must be accounted for when comparing the effect of drafting Manning. Do you think that we did not make up that point differential with our 2nd round pick compared to their 11th round pick?

Brees snuck in there is curious. He was on the WW? If not why wasn't he in in other weeks?I think I know the answer and that's because it's "best ball" format. If I'm correct then, this is apples and oranges leaguewise. Also IMO you don't get to take credit for a backup QB doing better than your starter. If so then you should "take a hit" for taking the backup after the starter in your draft. Heck (if true) Brees actually looks like a bad pick in this setup as he's a one week starter.

 

[John Mamula]

Bagger-As always you make some very good points. However, I think that there is a difference in standard FF rules and WCOFF, where you don't have to pick a starter. Manning's value (actually everyone's, but particularly a start 1 position) drops significantly when he is against a field of lesser players. With Batch specifically, you knew you would get good points from him in week 1 ( a great move for a late/last round pick). However, when you must pick a starter, then his value goes up, because most owners will at least sometimes pick the wrong starter.

you have to pick starters in WCOFF. maybe you are thinking of something else?good to see you post...haven't seen you in a while.

 

[John Mamula]

Brees snuck in there is curious. He was on the WW? If not why wasn't he in in other weeks?I think I know the answer and that's because it's "best ball" format. If I'm correct then, this is apples and oranges leaguewise. Also IMO you don't get to take credit for a backup QB doing better than your starter. If so then you should "take a hit" for taking the backup after the starter in your draft. Heck (if true) Brees actually looks like a bad pick in this setup as he's a one week starter.

i made a note above that was a mistake...i meant to type frye and brees came out. not sure what i was doing there.

 

[John Mamula]

So you have used FOUR slots for players? That has HUGE value. Let's assume you could get these guys on waivers, 1) then you might have been missing other players you could have used, 2) Your league allows QB's on waivers as most of the players you used had been claimed in my leagues 3) you might have been very lucky with your pickups as your scores were VERY good playing the matchup game. I mean you started Charlie Batch week 1...C'mon...I would bet that other QBBC's have not fared as well. I will say though that there have been some decent QB's that were available very late this year (of course in hindsight) such as Pennington, Smith, Rivers and Kitna.Flip it around, though, couldn't you have played teh matchup game at RB as well? If your roster spots would have been filled with Fred Taylor, Kevin Jones, Tatum Bell, and even Frank Gore you could have been fine as well.

Rosters are fairly big, i.e. 20 players. Re: Batch, the WCOFF draft is the Saturday before game 1 on Sunday so the Thursday game is known.We don't purely play matchups, but not drafting a QB until the 11th round and then grabbing two more late in the draft with a watchful eye on the WW is a strategy we think works very well.My point really is that the value of Manning is often overstated when looking at a static VBD baseline compared to actual results. You often suffer at other positions, especially in WCOFF.

 

[Bri]

My point really is that the value of Manning is often overstated when looking at a static VBD baseline compared to actual results. You often suffer at other positions, especially in WCOFF.

Manning's value is that you know what he'll give you, a consistently high scorer but not often the highest. LT, LJ....very few give that reassurance. VBD is a seasonal tool not a week to week one. Granted we all know that but there's something to be said for "he's a very good starter every week".

 

[John Mamula]

My point really is that the value of Manning is often overstated when looking at a static VBD baseline compared to actual results. You often suffer at other positions, especially in WCOFF.

Manning's value is that you know what he'll give you, a consistently high scorer but not often the highest. LT, LJ....very few give that reassurance. VBD is a seasonal tool not a week to week one. Granted we all know that but there's something to be said for "he's a very good starter every week".

I agree with that point. However, being "safe" is a sure fire way to not lead your league in points, which is my goal every year.

 

[tick dog]

Solid post and a solid theory...I drafted 10th and took Jordan. I based that pick on an "improved" offense with Brooks, and a solid season last year. HA! Well, that's obviously blown up in my face, and I wish that i'd had the brains to take Manning with the 10th pick. You can't win a league with your first draft pick, but you sure as hell can lose one. If you don't get production out of your top 2-3 rounds, you're screwed.

agree. i took peyton at 1.8 of a 14-team league (over rudi, caddy, lamont, mcgahee, portis, westbrook) and couldn't be happier. while portis, i think, has a chance to do very well overall, julius has looked good, and westbrook has been a monster (and my only real regret, though he won't last the season, IMO), there were/are just too many questions with these other 1st-round rb's for me to roll the dice with a first round bust who i couldn't more or less count on every single week. like they say, you can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it....i honestly wouldn't have taken peyton over the 1-6 -- shaun, LT, LJ, tiki, ronnie, sjax -- had I had the choice back in august, so i'm not saying i'm any genius, but i passed on rudi and would have passed pn edge had he not gotten taken at 1.7...i more than happy relying on peyton every week as the cornerstone of my team.

 

[Synthesizer]

Just because he consistently gets you 20 pts each week doesn't make him worthy of a 1st round pick. There are plenty of guys drafted a few rounds later who have been just as reliable (McNabb, Bulger, Eli, Vick) and another group of late picks who have been good for 20 pts most of the time (Kitna, Brees, Rivers). The supply of available QBs is just too large to justify taking Manning in the 1st.Oh, and if you look at his game logs from last year, he was held under 20 pts in 8 of his 16 games. And this year it's 2 of 6 games. So it's not like he's money in the bank every single week.

There are not "plenty of guys who have been just as reliable". And even if you do consider 4 guys to be plenty, could you have picked those 4 guys out at the beginning of the year?So, you are telling me that you could have predicted that McNabb, Bulger, Vick and Eli would have been putting up comparable numbers to Peyton? Actually, it is Peyton, Kitna and Bulger in most leagues who trail McNabb.Each year, there are guys who put up excellent numbers, and if you could target them in the later rounds, and "guess" correctly, then good luck to you.

The 4 reliable guys that I just named were all ranked in the top 10 QBs by FBG in preseason. They have been starters in practically every league since week 1. So there's no guessing there. "Plenty of guys" in your league are getting reliable production out of the QB position and it didn't cost them a 1st round pick. Combine that with the guys who jumped on the Kitna, Brees, or Rivers bandwagon early and there just isn't great value in using that 1st rounder on Manning.

 

[Liquid Tension]

My point really is that the value of Manning is often overstated when looking at a static VBD baseline compared to actual results. You often suffer at other positions, especially in WCOFF.

Manning's value is that you know what he'll give you, a consistently high scorer but not often the highest. LT, LJ....very few give that reassurance. VBD is a seasonal tool not a week to week one. Granted we all know that but there's something to be said for "he's a very good starter every week".

I agree with that point. However, being "safe" is a sure fire way to not lead your league in points, which is my goal every year.

Thanks for the response Bagger. I thought this year Manning was not only safe, but very productive. In the league I have him I am leading the league in scoring. This year I thought it was easier to fill in RB's in the draft. Going in I had the big 3 and then the Portis injury issue. In a dynasty league, Portis was the answer, but after that Manning is the guy IMO. Of course, anyone who drafted McNabb outside of the 1st round should be in 1st place. In my league with Manning I have made the SB every year, although I lost last year because Manning didn't play...a concern I have this year. Maybe this is a factor? Then again, I have LT2 and he didn't play either.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Just because he consistently gets you 20 pts each week doesn't make him worthy of a 1st round pick. There are plenty of guys drafted a few rounds later who have been just as reliable (McNabb, Bulger, Eli, Vick) and another group of late picks who have been good for 20 pts most of the time (Kitna, Brees, Rivers). The supply of available QBs is just too large to justify taking Manning in the 1st.Oh, and if you look at his game logs from last year, he was held under 20 pts in 8 of his 16 games. And this year it's 2 of 6 games. So it's not like he's money in the bank every single week.

There are not "plenty of guys who have been just as reliable". And even if you do consider 4 guys to be plenty, could you have picked those 4 guys out at the beginning of the year?So, you are telling me that you could have predicted that McNabb, Bulger, Vick and Eli would have been putting up comparable numbers to Peyton? Actually, it is Peyton, Kitna and Bulger in most leagues who trail McNabb.Each year, there are guys who put up excellent numbers, and if you could target them in the later rounds, and "guess" correctly, then good luck to you.

The 4 reliable guys that I just named were all ranked in the top 10 QBs by FBG in preseason. They have been starters in practically every league since week 1. So there's no guessing there. "Plenty of guys" in your league are getting reliable production out of the QB position and it didn't cost them a 1st round pick. Combine that with the guys who jumped on the Kitna, Brees, or Rivers bandwagon early and there just isn't great value in using that 1st rounder on Manning.

The logic is a little backwards (or could be played that way) because a lot of people picked up good RB's later as well thsi year. Vick doesn't belong in this group as he had one great game and isn't nearly as consistent. If Manning is 4 points higher than any other guy (not named McNabb) that is very good. If I could take a RB that would set me up to be 4 points over every guy but one, then I would do that as well. The guys after the top 4 IMO were not those guys you could count on and therefore Manning was a good choice there.

 

[pizzatyme]

This isn't my first rodeo, I do value the RB....but did you really think that taking Ronnie or Caddy at #5-10 was a rock solid move? I just couldn't bring myself to have one of those guys as my "stud" for '06.

Hey Nostradomaus, please humor us, and tell us who your stud RBs are after drafting PM in the first?

 

[tick dog]

This isn't my first rodeo, I do value the RB....but did you really think that taking Ronnie or Caddy at #5-10 was a rock solid move? I just couldn't bring myself to have one of those guys as my "stud" for '06.

Hey Nostradomaus, please humor us, and tell us who your stud RBs are after drafting PM in the first?

not speaking for nostradamus, but my rb's after taking peyton at 1.8 were thomas jones, deuce and ahman, whom i traded after his one or two big early season games for lamont jordan before lamont's big cleveland game...wish i'd traded lamont back for ahmen before this past weekend. i missed out by ONE slot on getting gore to pair with jones, deuce, which would have been sweet.

 

[shadow2k]

You know, a lot of this just comes down to your league setup.

In a 12-teamer with 4pt passing TD's, no way do I spend a 1st rounder on Peyton.

In a 10-teamer with 6pt passing TD's...well, I wouldn't. But I wouldn't blame someone else for doing it.

 

[Bri]

My point really is that the value of Manning is often overstated when looking at a static VBD baseline compared to actual results. You often suffer at other positions, especially in WCOFF.

Manning's value is that you know what he'll give you, a consistently high scorer but not often the highest. LT, LJ....very few give that reassurance. VBD is a seasonal tool not a week to week one. Granted we all know that but there's something to be said for "he's a very good starter every week".

I agree with that point. However, being "safe" is a sure fire way to not lead your league in points, which is my goal every year.

not in the first round though, well I figure so. Safe in the 1st is fine.I think people are confusing that alot in this thread

 

[Marc Levin]

Your argument is fine, but you cant really throw Shaun Alexander in the "bust" mix because of injury. If Peyton blows out his knee next week it doesnt mean you made a huge draft mistake.

I've always hated it when folks call a first round player who gets injured a "bust."That said, the OP threw LT into the mix - LT caught and threw a TD yesterday and he's been huge under every scoring system - LT was clearly worth a top-5 selection. Same with LJ. Tiki is coming around, and Portis has DEFINITELY been worth the first round pick. Finally, SJax, Rudi, Holt and SSmith were worth 1st roud picks. The only real question marks are Ronnie Brown and Edge (not living up to ADP and not likely to), Cadillac (who is also seemingly coming around), and Lamont Jordan (full-on mega bust)Finally, I agree with MacDaddy (thought a pig just went zooming past my window. huh.). There are a bunch of the QBs selected anywhere from 3-5 rounds AFTER Peyton in the first who are scoring similarly or nearly so.The fact that Peyton is NOT in a class of his own as a fantasy QB, says it all - he was not worth a first round pick if you not only coulda had just as good a QB a few rounds later, but, even more importantly, had a GOOD CHANCE of getting such a QB a few rounds later.,With RBs, it is nowhere near as likely for a 5th round RB to perform like LT than it was (is) for Ronnie Brown to perform like LT.

 

[Marc Levin]

You know, a lot of this just comes down to your league setup.In a 12-teamer with 4pt passing TD's, no way do I spend a 1st rounder on Peyton.In a 10-teamer with 6pt passing TD's...well, I wouldn't. But I wouldn't blame someone else for doing it.

???Smaller pool of teams, more likely to have a good QB in a 1-QB starter league.I thikn you meant to post 12-teamer, 4/pass TD, no way.14 teamer, 6/pass TD, quite possibly.In a 10-teamer with 6/pass TD, I'll STILL look to hit on one of the more readily available QBs in the 4th/5th - or even LATER.

 

[Buckna]

You know, a lot of this just comes down to your league setup.

In a 12-teamer with 4pt passing TD's, no way do I spend a 1st rounder on Peyton.

In a 10-teamer with 6pt passing TD's...well, I wouldn't. But I wouldn't blame someone else for doing it.

Bingo. It's all about knowing your league.Many of my redrafts have antiquated scoring rules that favor rushing QB's. Vick is the #2 QB behind McNabb and I got Vick a full 8 rounds later than Manning. Manning is value in some leagues and not in others. No use trying to make blanket statements like some in this thread.

I do find it humerous this thread pops up after a huge game whereas as recently as last week we had people arguing about how much he had fallen off this year.

 

[John Mamula]

The fact that Peyton is NOT in a class of his own as a fantasy QB, says it all - he was not worth a first round pick if you not only coulda had just as good a QB a few rounds later, but, even more importantly, had a GOOD CHANCE of getting such a QB a few rounds later.,With RBs, it is nowhere near as likely for a 5th round RB to perform like LT than it was (is) for Ronnie Brown to perform like LT.

This is it in a nutshell.If you are so risk adverse that you cannot draft anyone else other than Peyton because he is reliable, you really shouldn't be playing fantasy football. Croquet is quite nice in the fall.

 

[Liquid Tension]

This isn't my first rodeo, I do value the RB....but did you really think that taking Ronnie or Caddy at #5-10 was a rock solid move? I just couldn't bring myself to have one of those guys as my "stud" for '06.

Hey Nostradomaus, please humor us, and tell us who your stud RBs are after drafting PM in the first?

This wasn't for me, but I took Manning at #5 (6 pt per td, 12 man league, 5 man keeper league) and then with my 2nd round took Westbrook and then with my 3rd round I took Willie Parker (who has been inconsistent and I could have taken Tatum Bell). 4th round (both Indy backs were just taken) still had Gore, Jamal, Ahman, as well as the rookie RB's (not Bush) and Thomas Jones, Cedric benson, Corey Dillon and Deuce, so I took a Darrell Jackson hoping to get one back in the 5th. When the 5th came around, I took Deuce...but still could have had Dillon or Jamal (Ahman was picked right before me). filled out my roster and am in 1st place.Of course, I won't share with you my other league where I drafted the "stud" RB's and not a QB and have been fighting an uphill battle all year drafting Caddy Williams with the 9th pick in the 1st round.Enjoy

 

[Bri]

The fact that Peyton is NOT in a class of his own as a fantasy QB, says it all - he was not worth a first round pick if you not only coulda had just as good a QB a few rounds later, but, even more importantly, had a GOOD CHANCE of getting such a QB a few rounds later.,With RBs, it is nowhere near as likely for a 5th round RB to perform like LT than it was (is) for Ronnie Brown to perform like LT.

This is it in a nutshell.If you are so risk adverse that you cannot draft anyone else other than Peyton because he is reliable, you really shouldn't be playing fantasy football. Croquet is quite nice in the fall.

yeah this from the guy who said to draft Tony G and Gates

 

[dawgtrails]

Your argument is fine, but you cant really throw Shaun Alexander in the "bust" mix because of injury. If Peyton blows out his knee next week it doesnt mean you made a huge draft mistake.

I've always hated it when folks call a first round player who gets injured a "bust."That said, the OP threw LT into the mix - LT caught and threw a TD yesterday and he's been huge under every scoring system - LT was clearly worth a top-5 selection. Same with LJ. Tiki is coming around, and Portis has DEFINITELY been worth the first round pick. Finally, SJax, Rudi, Holt and SSmith were worth 1st roud picks. The only real question marks are Ronnie Brown and Edge (not living up to ADP and not likely to), Cadillac (who is also seemingly coming around), and Lamont Jordan (full-on mega bust)Finally, I agree with MacDaddy (thought a pig just went zooming past my window. huh.). There are a bunch of the QBs selected anywhere from 3-5 rounds AFTER Peyton in the first who are scoring similarly or nearly so.The fact that Peyton is NOT in a class of his own as a fantasy QB, says it all - he was not worth a first round pick if you not only coulda had just as good a QB a few rounds later, but, even more importantly, had a GOOD CHANCE of getting such a QB a few rounds later.,With RBs, it is nowhere near as likely for a 5th round RB to perform like LT than it was (is) for Ronnie Brown to perform like LT.

First of all, there are not "a bunch of QBs who are scoring similarly or nearly so".Peyton is behind McNabb, and slightly ahead of Bulger and Kitna. He is clearly ahead of everyone else. So, to say that a bunch of QBs are scoring as well is at worst a lie, and a best a gross embellishment.Over the past 5 years, Manning is the only Qb to be in the top 4 every year. The group of QBs who have been up there with him is different every year. From Green, to Vick, to Brady, to Hasselback, etc.If you knew for sure before the year that Kitna would put up as good of numbers than Peyton, then of course you would pass on Peyton. But unless you have some uncanny skill at picking the QB who will overperform outrageously, your premise is flawed.You cant look at the 1st and 5th round picks in a vacuum. The person who takes Manning in the first is not picking their RB1 in the 5th round. The person who picks his QB1 in the 5th is under a different strategy.So you need to compare the difference between RB1 in the late first round, to a RB1 you would take in the early 2nd, and so forth. Then you would look at the WR2 or RB4 the Peyton guy would be taking in the 6th round while you are "hoping" that the guy you draft puts up as good of numbers.It is not as simple as saying Manning is not good value. Many times he is not.I drafted McNabb in the 6th, I got lucky that A) he was there, and B) he has been as good as he has. I just as easily could have gotten Hasselback or Palmer or Bledsoe.I tend to agree with folks who take the sure thing in the first. I thought preseason that was LT, LJ, SA, Jax, Rudi, Smith, Holt and Peyton. Rudi is not performing. He is RB13 in my ppr league.Anyway, it is not a simple, Manning is not good value, nor is it, Manning is a constant top 4 QB. It is a balance between the 2, but mostly depends on how well the rest of your draft goes.

 

[rabidfireweasel]

Bagger-As always you make some very good points. However, I think that there is a difference in standard FF rules and WCOFF, where you don't have to pick a starter. Manning's value (actually everyone's, but particularly a start 1 position) drops significantly when he is against a field of lesser players. With Batch specifically, you knew you would get good points from him in week 1 ( a great move for a late/last round pick). However, when you must pick a starter, then his value goes up, because most owners will at least sometimes pick the wrong starter.

you have to pick starters in WCOFF. maybe you are thinking of something else?good to see you post...haven't seen you in a while.

Sorry- brainfreeze. I was thinking of survivor style. When I saw your post I immediately thought back to a Drinnen post from a few years back when he illustrated the value of QBBC when you didn't have to pick a starter. It looked very similiar.It is nice to be back and posting again.

 

[shadow2k]

You know, a lot of this just comes down to your league setup.In a 12-teamer with 4pt passing TD's, no way do I spend a 1st rounder on Peyton.In a 10-teamer with 6pt passing TD's...well, I wouldn't. But I wouldn't blame someone else for doing it.

???Smaller pool of teams, more likely to have a good QB in a 1-QB starter league.I thikn you meant to post 12-teamer, 4/pass TD, no way.14 teamer, 6/pass TD, quite possibly.In a 10-teamer with 6/pass TD, I'll STILL look to hit on one of the more readily available QBs in the 4th/5th - or even LATER.

No, I meant exactly what I said. The smaller the league, the easier it is to fill the other positions with quality starters. If you go into a 14 team league and don't grab a couple quality starting RB's early, you'll probably be hurting at that position all year.

 

[Marc Levin]

First of all, there are not "a bunch of QBs who are scoring similarly or nearly so".Peyton is behind McNabb, and slightly ahead of Bulger and Kitna. He is clearly ahead of everyone else. So, to say that a bunch of QBs are scoring as well is at worst a lie, and a best a gross embellishment.

Ummm, league specific down?FBGuys standard scoring PPG (not including tonite's performers):

1 QB McNabb,Donovan PHI 7 243 144 2151 16 5 23 163 3 2 200.9 28.70 2 QB Manning,Peyton IND 6 206 131 1620 12 2 8 10 2 0 140.1 23.35 3 QB Manning,Eli NYG 5 176 115 1329 11 7 5 6 0 1 104.2 20.84 4 QB Vick,Michael ATL 6 147 77 908 7 5 51 441 2 1 124.7 20.78 5 QB Bulger,Marc STL 6 208 128 1619 10 1 11 4 0 2 120.5 20.08 6 QB Kitna,Jon DET 7 264 167 1853 9 9 13 47 2 3 136.5 19.50

I see one QB way ahead of him and three more QBs right near him - that is a BUNCH of QBs scoring near him who folks were LIKELY to have selected in rounds 4/5 (Vick, EManning, McNabb and Bulger).I understand what you are saying - but I think all of us would agree that there is nothing wrong with passing on Peyton, taking a stab at Ronnie Brown or Cadillac, and grabbing one of the QBs available in the 3rd/4th instead. And, it is WAY MORE LIKELY for that strategy to work out than for a guy who took Peyton in the first to compensate for the losses he will suffer the rest of the draft at WR and RB. Whlie things MIGHT work out for some folks by picking well or by players dropping, that does not mean Peyton was an "automatic" first round pick.I'll never have him b/c I will never take a QB before the 3rd round in any 12-team draft. Ever. NO QB is worth it - Peyton included.Finally, no it was not a lie and it was certaionly not a "gross embellishment" (see above). Choose your words a bit more carefully before casting such accusations.

 

[Marc Levin]

You know, a lot of this just comes down to your league setup.In a 12-teamer with 4pt passing TD's, no way do I spend a 1st rounder on Peyton.In a 10-teamer with 6pt passing TD's...well, I wouldn't. But I wouldn't blame someone else for doing it.

???Smaller pool of teams, more likely to have a good QB in a 1-QB starter league.I thikn you meant to post 12-teamer, 4/pass TD, no way.14 teamer, 6/pass TD, quite possibly.In a 10-teamer with 6/pass TD, I'll STILL look to hit on one of the more readily available QBs in the 4th/5th - or even LATER.

No, I meant exactly what I said. The smaller the league, the easier it is to fill the other positions with quality starters. If you go into a 14 team league and don't grab a couple quality starting RB's early, you'll probably be hurting at that position all year.

Two points:1) If you have Peyton how is that an advanatage in a 10-teamer?2) In bigger leagues you do NOT go for RB just to not be "behind," you grab advantages WHEREVER you can find them - I would not hesitate to open Peyton and two WRs in a 14-teamer and let my advantage there compensate for any probelms at RB - can NOT do that in smaller leagues and for the reason you mentioned - EVERYone can catch up at EVERY position.That is VBD 101. Peyton (or McNabb) are WAY more valuable in 14-team leagues than 10 team leagues.

 

[dawgtrails]

First of all, there are not "a bunch of QBs who are scoring similarly or nearly so".Peyton is behind McNabb, and slightly ahead of Bulger and Kitna. He is clearly ahead of everyone else. So, to say that a bunch of QBs are scoring as well is at worst a lie, and a best a gross embellishment.

Ummm, league specific down?FBGuys standard scoring PPG (not including tonite's performers):

1 QB McNabb,Donovan PHI 7 243 144 2151 16 5 23 163 3 2 200.9 28.70 2 QB Manning,Peyton IND 6 206 131 1620 12 2 8 10 2 0 140.1 23.35 3 QB Manning,Eli NYG 5 176 115 1329 11 7 5 6 0 1 104.2 20.84 4 QB Vick,Michael ATL 6 147 77 908 7 5 51 441 2 1 124.7 20.78 5 QB Bulger,Marc STL 6 208 128 1619 10 1 11 4 0 2 120.5 20.08 6 QB Kitna,Jon DET 7 264 167 1853 9 9 13 47 2 3 136.5 19.50

I see one QB way ahead of him and three more QBs right near him - that is a BUNCH of QBs scoring near him who folks were LIKELY to have selected in rounds 4/5 (Vick, EManning, McNabb and Bulger).I understand what you are saying - but I think all of us would agree that there is nothing wrong with passing on Peyton, taking a stab at Ronnie Brown or Cadillac, and grabbing one of the QBs available in the 3rd/4th instead. And, it is WAY MORE LIKELY for that strategy to work out than for a guy who took Peyton in the first to compensate for the losses he will suffer the rest of the draft at WR and RB. Whlie things MIGHT work out for some folks by picking well or by players dropping, that does not mean Peyton was an "automatic" first round pick.I'll never have him b/c I will never take a QB before the 3rd round in any 12-team draft. Ever. NO QB is worth it - Peyton included.Finally, no it was not a lie and it was certaionly not a "gross embellishment" (see above). Choose your words a bit more carefully before casting such accusations.

I wouldn't consider being 3-4 points behind as being "near him".That distance between him and the #3-6 guys (avg of 3 points) is nearly the same distance between the #4 RB (Portis) and the #18 RB (Dunn). I think folks are downplaying the statistical difference between Manning and the guys below him.

 

[Liquid Tension]

First of all, there are not "a bunch of QBs who are scoring similarly or nearly so".Peyton is behind McNabb, and slightly ahead of Bulger and Kitna. He is clearly ahead of everyone else. So, to say that a bunch of QBs are scoring as well is at worst a lie, and a best a gross embellishment.

Ummm, league specific down?FBGuys standard scoring PPG (not including tonite's performers):

1 QB McNabb,Donovan PHI 7 243 144 2151 16 5 23 163 3 2 200.9 28.70 2 QB Manning,Peyton IND 6 206 131 1620 12 2 8 10 2 0 140.1 23.35 3 QB Manning,Eli NYG 5 176 115 1329 11 7 5 6 0 1 104.2 20.84 4 QB Vick,Michael ATL 6 147 77 908 7 5 51 441 2 1 124.7 20.78 5 QB Bulger,Marc STL 6 208 128 1619 10 1 11 4 0 2 120.5 20.08 6 QB Kitna,Jon DET 7 264 167 1853 9 9 13 47 2 3 136.5 19.50

I see one QB way ahead of him and three more QBs right near him - that is a BUNCH of QBs scoring near him who folks were LIKELY to have selected in rounds 4/5 (Vick, EManning, McNabb and Bulger).I understand what you are saying - but I think all of us would agree that there is nothing wrong with passing on Peyton, taking a stab at Ronnie Brown or Cadillac, and grabbing one of the QBs available in the 3rd/4th instead. And, it is WAY MORE LIKELY for that strategy to work out than for a guy who took Peyton in the first to compensate for the losses he will suffer the rest of the draft at WR and RB. Whlie things MIGHT work out for some folks by picking well or by players dropping, that does not mean Peyton was an "automatic" first round pick.I'll never have him b/c I will never take a QB before the 3rd round in any 12-team draft. Ever. NO QB is worth it - Peyton included.Finally, no it was not a lie and it was certaionly not a "gross embellishment" (see above). Choose your words a bit more carefully before casting such accusations.

First, until FBG gets their act in gear and goes to a 6 point league for QB's the numbers you throw out ARE NOT STANDARD. 4 points for QB's is a BAD rule. We have had discussions on this before and it was agreed by most that 6 points is the way to go. FBG said next year they would look at switching it. The numbers are a little better for Manning in a 6 point league. Also, it is virtually guaranteed (barring injury) that Manning is in the top 3 every year which you can't say about anyone else, except LT2 and Alexander. Vick had one huge game and has been ok the rest of the time. Eli gets hurt in int leagues as well.I would like to see what happens with VBD at the end of the year and then compare with the preseason rankings.

 

[shadow2k]

You know, a lot of this just comes down to your league setup.In a 12-teamer with 4pt passing TD's, no way do I spend a 1st rounder on Peyton.In a 10-teamer with 6pt passing TD's...well, I wouldn't. But I wouldn't blame someone else for doing it.

???Smaller pool of teams, more likely to have a good QB in a 1-QB starter league.I thikn you meant to post 12-teamer, 4/pass TD, no way.14 teamer, 6/pass TD, quite possibly.In a 10-teamer with 6/pass TD, I'll STILL look to hit on one of the more readily available QBs in the 4th/5th - or even LATER.

No, I meant exactly what I said. The smaller the league, the easier it is to fill the other positions with quality starters. If you go into a 14 team league and don't grab a couple quality starting RB's early, you'll probably be hurting at that position all year.

Two points:1) If you have Peyton how is that an advanatage in a 10-teamer?2) In bigger leagues you do NOT go for RB just to not be "behind," you grab advantages WHEREVER you can find them - I would not hesitate to open Peyton and two WRs in a 14-teamer and let my advantage there compensate for any probelms at RB - can NOT do that in smaller leagues and for the reason you mentioned - EVERYone can catch up at EVERY position.That is VBD 101. Peyton (or McNabb) are WAY more valuable in 14-team leagues than 10 team leagues.

Drafting Manning in the 1st leaves your entire team weaker, and you have to account for that. It pushes every single other pick back an entire round, until when you otherwise would have selected your QB.Think about this. Now obviously Leftwich had a bad week, and I had him benched because of the injury. But in my league, he was right behind Manning up until this week. And even now, he's only 5ppg behind Manning, and only cost a 10th round pick.Obviously many will see that 5ppg, and want to pick Manning. But here's where it matters. Instead of getting a 15ppg RB in the first, you get a 13ppg RB in the second as your #1 back. And in the third, you get another guy a ppg behind who you could have had a round earlier. And all the way down the line until you end up where you otherwise would have drafted a QB. And that PPG difference at every position for so many rounds adds up. Your whole team is weaker.That is why I pick QB's late. Last year I chose Palmer to break out, and drafted him in the 10th. We all know that story, and it's not a common one. I went for Leftwich this year, and up until yesterday, he was the #4 QB in my league. I find it much easier to find a valuable QB late, and make up the PPG difference between Petyon and someone else by being able to draft 9 positions all one round earlier than I would have if I'd taken Peyton in the first.

 

[Marc Levin]

^----------------

This man has advanced to VBD 201. And beyond.

 

[Marc Levin]

First, until FBG gets their act in gear and goes to a 6 point league for QB's the numbers you throw out ARE NOT STANDARD. 4 points for QB's is a BAD rule. We have had discussions on this before and it was agreed by most that 6 points is the way to go. FBG said next year they would look at switching it.

That's as may be, but I am in 5 leagues, 4 of which continue to use 4 pt/pass TDs, FBG standard scoring = 4/pass TD, the projections done by Davfid Dodds use 4/pass TD, our spotlight projections use 4/pass TD.You may complain all you want about 4/pass TD, but I certainly did not either LIE or MISREPRESENT Peyton's place among a "bunch" of QBs posting SIMILAR numbers.Finally, the drops are much more severe at QB than RB this year:

1 QB McNabb,Donovan PHI 7 243 144 2151 16 5 23 163 3 2 200.9 28.70 2 QB Manning,Peyton IND 6 206 131 1620 12 2 8 10 2 0 140.1 23.35 3 QB Manning,Eli NYG 5 176 115 1329 11 7 5 6 0 1 104.2 20.84 4 QB Vick,Michael ATL 6 147 77 908 7 5 51 441 2 1 124.7 20.78 5 QB Bulger,Marc STL 6 208 128 1619 10 1 11 4 0 2 120.5 20.08 6 QB Kitna,Jon DET 7 264 167 1853 9 9 13 47 2 3 136.5 19.50 7 QB Favre,Brett GB 6 238 134 1481 9 5 4 9 0 3 106.0 17.67

1 RB Tomlinson,Ladainian SD 6 126 473 7 32 246 1 1 124.0 20.67 2 RB Westbrook,Brian PHI 6 84 462 4 30 333 3 2 121.5 20.25 3 RB Johnson,Larry KC 6 133 489 5 25 303 1 2 115.2 19.20 4 RB Portis,Clinton WAS 6 98 414 6 15 155 0 0 92.9 15.48 5 RB Gore,Frank SF 6 112 520 3 24 202 0 4 90.2 15.03 6 RB Jones,Kevin DET 7 110 474 4 37 266 1 3 104.0 14.86 7 RB Green,Ahman GB 4 76 333 1 17 138 1 2 59.1 14.77 8 RB Henry,Travis TEN 4 81 383 3 7 25 0 0 58.8 14.70 9 RB Barber,Tiki NYG 5 102 533 0 22 190 0 0 72.3 14.46 10 RB Jackson,Steven STL 6 133 521 2 25 224 0 0 86.5 14.42 11 RB Taylor,Chester MIN 6 137 590 2 21 137 0 0 84.7 14.12 12 RB Parker,Willie PIT 6 126 481 5 11 47 0 2 82.8 13.80 13 RB Jones,Julius DAL 5 108 494 2 2 61 0 1 67.5 13.50 14 RB Johnson,Rudi CIN 6 130 506 4 9 50 0 0 79.6 13.27 15 RB Brown,Ronnie MIA 7 122 464 4 25 216 0 1 92.0 13.14 16 RB McAllister,Deuce NO 6 91 444 4 13 89 0 1 77.3 12.88

 

[dawgtrails]

You know, a lot of this just comes down to your league setup.In a 12-teamer with 4pt passing TD's, no way do I spend a 1st rounder on Peyton.In a 10-teamer with 6pt passing TD's...well, I wouldn't. But I wouldn't blame someone else for doing it.

???Smaller pool of teams, more likely to have a good QB in a 1-QB starter league.I thikn you meant to post 12-teamer, 4/pass TD, no way.14 teamer, 6/pass TD, quite possibly.In a 10-teamer with 6/pass TD, I'll STILL look to hit on one of the more readily available QBs in the 4th/5th - or even LATER.

No, I meant exactly what I said. The smaller the league, the easier it is to fill the other positions with quality starters. If you go into a 14 team league and don't grab a couple quality starting RB's early, you'll probably be hurting at that position all year.

Two points:1) If you have Peyton how is that an advanatage in a 10-teamer?2) In bigger leagues you do NOT go for RB just to not be "behind," you grab advantages WHEREVER you can find them - I would not hesitate to open Peyton and two WRs in a 14-teamer and let my advantage there compensate for any probelms at RB - can NOT do that in smaller leagues and for the reason you mentioned - EVERYone can catch up at EVERY position.That is VBD 101. Peyton (or McNabb) are WAY more valuable in 14-team leagues than 10 team leagues.

Drafting Manning in the 1st leaves your entire team weaker, and you have to account for that. It pushes every single other pick back an entire round, until when you otherwise would have selected your QB.Think about this. Now obviously Leftwich had a bad week, and I had him benched because of the injury. But in my league, he was right behind Manning up until this week. And even now, he's only 5ppg behind Manning, and only cost a 10th round pick.Obviously many will see that 5ppg, and want to pick Manning. But here's where it matters. Instead of getting a 15ppg RB in the first, you get a 13ppg RB in the second as your #1 back. And in the third, you get another guy a ppg behind who you could have had a round earlier. And all the way down the line until you end up where you otherwise would have drafted a QB. And that PPG difference at every position for so many rounds adds up. Your whole team is weaker.That is why I pick QB's late. Last year I chose Palmer to break out, and drafted him in the 10th. We all know that story, and it's not a common one. I went for Leftwich this year, and up until yesterday, he was the #4 QB in my league. I find it much easier to find a valuable QB late, and make up the PPG difference between Petyon and someone else by being able to draft 9 positions all one round earlier than I would have if I'd taken Peyton in the first.

OK, now what happens that Leftwich will not give you the Peyton-5pts a week? I'm not strictly talking about the injury either. Leftwich had 2 great games that have skewed his fantasy value, I believe.I must confess that in my league, Peyton is averaging 31 pts a game, and not even taking Leftwich's previous week into account, he was only averaging 23 pts a game.I agree with your point about having to make up the difference until the spot where you would have drafted a QB. It is an excellent point. However, I think it is just as "easy" to draft WRs late and find the "value".Just as many people wait to draft QBs, I wait to draft WRs. Anyway, this is an excellent discussion...and I find myself arguing for drafting Peyton in the first, even though I have never done it, nor would I tend to do it.Thing is though. There is little difference right now between the #4 and #20 RB. Nor is there much difference between the #8 and #30 WR.So to say thatyou are going to lose 2 ppg between the running back selected a round later may not be quite true...nevertheless...good post

 

[wolfeman]

I took Manning at #22.I had the #3 pick overall.i drafted LT.

My 1st 3rds:

LT

Manning

Bush

12 team redraft

ppr

Everyone felt like they could wait for a QB.

 

[shadow2k]

OK, now what happens that Leftwich will not give you the Peyton-5pts a week? I'm not strictly talking about the injury either. Leftwich had 2 great games that have skewed his fantasy value, I believe.I must confess that in my league, Peyton is averaging 31 pts a game, and not even taking Leftwich's previous week into account, he was only averaging 23 pts a game.I agree with your point about having to make up the difference until the spot where you would have drafted a QB. It is an excellent point. However, I think it is just as "easy" to draft WRs late and find the "value".Just as many people wait to draft QBs, I wait to draft WRs. Anyway, this is an excellent discussion...and I find myself arguing for drafting Peyton in the first, even though I have never done it, nor would I tend to do it.Thing is though. There is little difference right now between the 34 and #20 RB. Nor is there much difference between the #8 and #30 WR.So to say thatyou are going to lose 2 ppg between the running back selected a round later may not be quite true...nevertheless...good post

Scoring is always going to vary between leagues, so I don't really want to get into exact PPG differences. But it's just another reason that the value of Manning will vary between the differences in leagues.As far as when my QB doesn't score well...it's not like Manning always tosses 4TD's either. Leftwich has outscored Peyton in two weeks so far. Yeah, you'll have the overall better, and more consistent QB. But that's not what we're talking about. What we need to know is if it's worth that to have to draft every other position a round later than you would have. I don't think it is.But that's going to be somewhat subjective, depend a lot on hitting your picks (regardless of where you pick them), and you're league scoring.The really isn't a right or wrong answer when talking about whether you should draft him first or not. There are too many other factors. But I don't think everyone takes them all into account is all.

 

[Marc Levin]

OK, now what happens that Leftwich will not give you the Peyton-5pts a week? I'm not strictly talking about the injury either. Leftwich had 2 great games that have skewed his fantasy value, I believe.

I must confess that in my league, Peyton is averaging 31 pts a game, and not even taking Leftwich's previous week into account, he was only averaging 23 pts a game.

I agree with your point about having to make up the difference until the spot where you would have drafted a QB. It is an excellent point. However, I think it is just as "easy" to draft WRs late and find the "value".

Just as many people wait to draft QBs, I wait to draft WRs. Anyway, this is an excellent discussion...and I find myself arguing for drafting Peyton in the first, even though I have never done it, nor would I tend to do it.

Thing is though. There is little difference right now between the 34 and #20 RB. Nor is there much difference between the #8 and #30 WR.

So to say thatyou are going to lose 2 ppg between the running back selected a round later may not be quite true...nevertheless...good post

Scoring is always going to vary between leagues, so I don't really want to get into exact PPG differences. But it's just another reason that the value of Manning will vary between the differences in leagues.As far as when my QB doesn't score well...it's not like Manning always tosses 4TD's either. Leftwich has outscored Peyton in two weeks so far. Yeah, you'll have the overall better, and more consistent QB. But that's not what we're talking about. What we need to know is if it's worth that to have to draft every other position a round later than you would have. I don't think it is.

But that's going to be somewhat subjective, depend a lot on hitting your picks (regardless of where you pick them), and you're league scoring.

The really isn't a right or wrong answer when talking about whether you should draft him first or not. There are too many other factors. But I don't think everyone takes them all into account is all.

There is nothing WRONG with drafting him in the first - I understand why folks do it.I just don't think it makes sense when you can more easily match Manning's production with a later QB - and the bolded part says it all for me. Talking risk averse, I am much less averse to finding a QB after I stocked up two RBs and two WRs than trying to find a RB/WR after going QB in the first.

 

[Marc Levin]

Another point to consider - it was about 28 picks between the ADP for Manning as the QB1 and whoever was selected as QB2.

Compare that to the RBx picked 28 picks after the RB1 and the burden on Manning as your first round pick becomes even clearer.