Peyton Manning (1 Viewer)

[DT4157]

So Peyton Manning throws 49 TDs in 2004, then comes back to throw 28 in 2005, and 31 in 2006. What do you think was the reason for this drop off? I understand that Stokley was battling injuries, but that certainly does not explain all of it. Is there any reason to believe he might throw significantly more TDs than any other QB again this year? With where he is going in the drafts, it looks like some people are hoping he might be well out in front of the pack again.

 

[jpapadub]

1 Peyton Manning IND 4397 557 362 31 9 68 101.0

2 Carson Palmer CIN 4035 520 324 28 13 74 93.9

3 Drew Brees NO 4418 554 356 26 11 86 96.2

only 7 others at 20TDs or better last year.

Manning is all but a lock for 30.

Even in "drop offs" as you call them, he's ahead of the pack in TDs.

 

[Colin Dowling]

So Peyton Manning throws 49 TDs in 2004, then comes back to throw 28 in 2005, and 31 in 2006. What do you think was the reason for this drop off? I understand that Stokley was battling injuries, but that certainly does not explain all of it. Is there any reason to believe he might throw significantly more TDs than any other QB again this year? With where he is going in the drafts, it looks like some people are hoping he might be well out in front of the pack again.

Uh, he will be in front of the pack again.

 

[DT4157]

So Peyton Manning throws 49 TDs in 2004, then comes back to throw 28 in 2005, and 31 in 2006. What do you think was the reason for this drop off? I understand that Stokley was battling injuries, but that certainly does not explain all of it. Is there any reason to believe he might throw significantly more TDs than any other QB again this year? With where he is going in the drafts, it looks like some people are hoping he might be well out in front of the pack again.

Uh, he will be in front of the pack again.

Notice I said "well out in front of the pack" and "significantly more TDs", like in 2004.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Not likely. But he'll still be QB1 ahead of the pack.

 

[jpapadub]

So Peyton Manning throws 49 TDs in 2004, then comes back to throw 28 in 2005, and 31 in 2006. What do you think was the reason for this drop off? I understand that Stokley was battling injuries, but that certainly does not explain all of it. Is there any reason to believe he might throw significantly more TDs than any other QB again this year? With where he is going in the drafts, it looks like some people are hoping he might be well out in front of the pack again.

Uh, he will be in front of the pack again.

Notice I said "well out in front of the pack" and "significantly more TDs", like in 2004.

If you draft Manning where value dictates he should go, he is beyond a safe pick. The people picking him are drafting him more for his guaranteed 4000yds/30 TDs than the potential for 4500/40+. If you get a 2004 performance, well that's just icing.

 

[David Yudkin]

So Peyton Manning throws 49 TDs in 2004, then comes back to throw 28 in 2005, and 31 in 2006. What do you think was the reason for this drop off? I understand that Stokley was battling injuries, but that certainly does not explain all of it. Is there any reason to believe he might throw significantly more TDs than any other QB again this year? With where he is going in the drafts, it looks like some people are hoping he might be well out in front of the pack again.

Over his career, the 49 TD season was the year that didn't belong, not the other way around. All the other years he was in th 26 to 31 TD range except one when he threw for 33 (in 2000).

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Not likely. But he'll still be QB1 ahead of the pack.

Not likely. His schedule is tougher plus Tarik Glenn retired. Peyton Manning's had his best seasons (2004, 2006) when the schedule was lined up just right for him. It should be tougher so I don't think he'll have a monster season. The left tackle and best offensive lineman for the Colts retired. How is that a positive? At best it's only a slight downgrade. At worst Manning could struggle mightily.For all this talk about the mighty Peyton Manning he's only been the #1 QB once in his career now I'm supposed to look at everything going against him this season and assume that'll be the case again? That's beyond naive. Somebody's gotta say it so it might as well be me. Peyton Manning is highly overrated, overvalued, whatever negative over connotation this season. I'm not saying that he'll be a total bust (I wouldn't absolutely rule it out either) but he's being drafted entirely too high based on perception rather than reality.

 

[GregR_2]

So Peyton Manning throws 49 TDs in 2004, then comes back to throw 28 in 2005, and 31 in 2006. What do you think was the reason for this drop off? I understand that Stokley was battling injuries, but that certainly does not explain all of it. Is there any reason to believe he might throw significantly more TDs than any other QB again this year? With where he is going in the drafts, it looks like some people are hoping he might be well out in front of the pack again.

Because of the emphasis placed on enforcing the pass interference rules in 2004. In previous seasons it was done fantasy QB stats went up by an average of 10% across the league. Peyton benefitted from it more than most. By the following season defenses had adjusted a little more, and it's possible they didn't call it quite as tight since the defensive holding wasn't as frequent anymore.

 

[trader jake]

I'm not saying that he'll be a total bust (I wouldn't absolutely rule it out either) but he's being drafted entirely too high based on perception rather than reality.

For the last 8 seasons Peyton has finished as a top 4 QB while the other names switch year to year. I think it's safe to rule out a 'total bust' year at this point. If you want to predict a 'hit to the knee year', good luck.Death, taxes, and Peyton Manning.

 

[Ghost Rider]

So Peyton Manning throws 49 TDs in 2004, then comes back to throw 28 in 2005, and 31 in 2006. What do you think was the reason for this drop off?

2004 was a career year, from a TD passes standpoint. The Colts offense was clicking on almost all cylinders that season, and Manning threw an unusual amount of short touchdown passes that year, partially because of how ineffective their short yardage running game was.

 

[ffball-novice]

So Peyton Manning throws 49 TDs in 2004, then comes back to throw 28 in 2005, and 31 in 2006. What do you think was the reason for this drop off?

2004 was a career year, from a TD passes standpoint. The Colts offense was clicking on almost all cylinders that season, and Manning threw an unusual amount of short touchdown passes that year, partially because of how ineffective their short yardage running game was.

Well summarized. Add to that the above averages and plan your expectations 4000 YD 30 TDs. I think he'll be on the high side of averages due to other Colts weaknesses they couldn't prepare for. McFarland's loss hurts the D so they need to score more. Tarik's retirement means less effective running game so high % of offense is passing

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I'm not saying that he'll be a total bust (I wouldn't absolutely rule it out either) but he's being drafted entirely too high based on perception rather than reality.

For the last 8 seasons Peyton has finished as a top 4 QB while the other names switch year to year. I think it's safe to rule out a 'total bust' year at this point. If you want to predict a 'hit to the knee year', good luck.Death, taxes, and Peyton Manning.

And who was watching his blind side for every single one of those 8 seasons? Tarik Glenn. He's gone now so that could change everything. Peyton Manning probably won't be a total bust in 07 but I still think he's highly overvalued. The whole point to drafting Manning in the 1st round is to give your team this major advantage over other teams in terms of quarterback and I just don't see that being the case this season.People drafted Manning too high after his 49 touchdown season and got burned. History is repeating itself all over again except his previous season wasn't as great and there's a clear sign to stay away (at his current price) with his best offensive lineman retiring.

 

[Baron Samedi]

Not likely. But he'll still be QB1 ahead of the pack.

Not likely. His schedule is tougher plus Tarik Glenn retired. Peyton Manning's had his best seasons (2004, 2006) when the schedule was lined up just right for him. It should be tougher so I don't think he'll have a monster season. The left tackle and best offensive lineman for the Colts retired. How is that a positive? At best it's only a slight downgrade. At worst Manning could struggle mightily.For all this talk about the mighty Peyton Manning he's only been the #1 QB once in his career now I'm supposed to look at everything going against him this season and assume that'll be the case again? That's beyond naive. Somebody's gotta say it so it might as well be me. Peyton Manning is highly overrated, overvalued, whatever negative over connotation this season. I'm not saying that he'll be a total bust (I wouldn't absolutely rule it out either) but he's being drafted entirely too high based on perception rather than reality.

In fantasy football, the most important attribute a player can give a team is consistancy. Peyton Manning does not just give you consistancy alone year in and year out, he gives it to you at the highest level possible, unmatched by any player over the last 8 years at any positon. I have owned him for the last 6 years and there is no equal him period. Never hurt, top 5 every year, and there has never been a week where I would blame him for any fantasy loss I've ever had. Overratted and overvalued.....

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Not likely. But he'll still be QB1 ahead of the pack.

Not likely. His schedule is tougher plus Tarik Glenn retired. Peyton Manning's had his best seasons (2004, 2006) when the schedule was lined up just right for him. It should be tougher so I don't think he'll have a monster season. The left tackle and best offensive lineman for the Colts retired. How is that a positive? At best it's only a slight downgrade. At worst Manning could struggle mightily.For all this talk about the mighty Peyton Manning he's only been the #1 QB once in his career now I'm supposed to look at everything going against him this season and assume that'll be the case again? That's beyond naive. Somebody's gotta say it so it might as well be me. Peyton Manning is highly overrated, overvalued, whatever negative over connotation this season. I'm not saying that he'll be a total bust (I wouldn't absolutely rule it out either) but he's being drafted entirely too high based on perception rather than reality.

In fantasy football, the most important attribute a player can give a team is consistancy. Peyton Manning does not just give you consistancy alone year in and year out, he gives it to you at the highest level possible, unmatched by any player over the last 8 years at any positon. I have owned him for the last 6 years and there is no equal him period. Never hurt, top 5 every year, and there has never been a week where I would blame him for any fantasy loss I've ever had. Overratted and overvalued.....

I'll assume that you're talking about a keeper league (Unless you're a really big Manning fan to draft him six straight seasons). That's a little different. I never said he was a bad player. In fantasy football I absolutely think that he's overrated and overvalued. I think that people are putting him on such a fantasy pedestal that more often than not he hasn't been worthy of. Unless he has a monster season he is not worth a first-round pick. He offers little risk (this season might be different) but only handful of seasons has the reward been worth the price paid.

 

[Tecumseh]

Not likely. But he'll still be QB1 ahead of the pack.

Not likely. His schedule is tougher plus Tarik Glenn retired. Peyton Manning's had his best seasons (2004, 2006) when the schedule was lined up just right for him. It should be tougher so I don't think he'll have a monster season. The left tackle and best offensive lineman for the Colts retired. How is that a positive? At best it's only a slight downgrade. At worst Manning could struggle mightily.For all this talk about the mighty Peyton Manning he's only been the #1 QB once in his career now I'm supposed to look at everything going against him this season and assume that'll be the case again? That's beyond naive. Somebody's gotta say it so it might as well be me. Peyton Manning is highly overrated, overvalued, whatever negative over connotation this season. I'm not saying that he'll be a total bust (I wouldn't absolutely rule it out either) but he's being drafted entirely too high based on perception rather than reality.

In fantasy football, the most important attribute a player can give a team is consistancy. Peyton Manning does not just give you consistancy alone year in and year out, he gives it to you at the highest level possible, unmatched by any player over the last 8 years at any positon. I have owned him for the last 6 years and there is no equal him period. Never hurt, top 5 every year, and there has never been a week where I would blame him for any fantasy loss I've ever had. Overratted and overvalued.....

I'll assume that you're talking about a keeper league (Unless you're a really big Manning fan to draft him six straight seasons). That's a little different. I never said he was a bad player. In fantasy football I absolutely think that he's overrated and overvalued. I think that people are putting him on such a fantasy pedestal that more often than not he hasn't been worthy of. Unless he has a monster season he is not worth a first-round pick. He offers little risk (this season might be different) but only handful of seasons has the reward been worth the price paid.

Scoring in my league:2006

LT-429

Peyton- 372

LJ- 313

Next highest QB- Brees- 313

2005

1. 1. Alexander, Shaun SEA RB 361.80

2. 2. Palmer, Carson CIN QB 330.84

3. 3. Johnson, Larry KCC RB 327.30

4. 4. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 321.28

5. 5. Barber, Tiki NYG RB 305.00

6. 6. Brady, Tom NEP QB 301.60

7. 7. Manning, Peyton IND QB 299.38

Note, only 31 points between Manning and Palmer, and only 2 pts to Brady.

2004

1. Manning, Peyton IND QB 459.48

2. 2. Culpepper, Daunte MIN QB 451.28

3. 3. McNabb, Donovan PHI QB 353.30

4. 4. Favre, Brett GBP QB 315.92

5. 5. Bills, Buffalo BUF Def 314.75

2003

1. Holmes, Priest KCC RB 371.00

2. 2. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 345.84

3. 3. Green, Ahman GBP RB 335.00

4. 4. Manning, Peyton IND QB 328.88 4

5. 5. Culpepper, Daunte MIN QB 323.36

2002

1. Holmes, Priest KCC RB 370.70

2. 2. Gannon, Rich OAK QB 355.16

3. 3. Culpepper, Daunte MIN QB 320.66

4. 4. Manning, Peyton IND QB 318.96

Losing Tarik Glenn IS a factor, but unless you think he was personally playing all 5 O-Line positions, to project Manning outside the top 10 because of his retirement is ridiculous.

 

[JohnnyU]

Peyton will still be at or near the top for all QBs, but the "real" reason for the drop off from 2004 is that he has matured even more than ever as a QB. He realizes that he can win running the ball, finally. Peyton Manning is a better QB now than in 2004, if you can believe that.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Not likely. But he'll still be QB1 ahead of the pack.

Not likely. His schedule is tougher plus Tarik Glenn retired. Peyton Manning's had his best seasons (2004, 2006) when the schedule was lined up just right for him. It should be tougher so I don't think he'll have a monster season. The left tackle and best offensive lineman for the Colts retired. How is that a positive? At best it's only a slight downgrade. At worst Manning could struggle mightily.For all this talk about the mighty Peyton Manning he's only been the #1 QB once in his career now I'm supposed to look at everything going against him this season and assume that'll be the case again? That's beyond naive. Somebody's gotta say it so it might as well be me. Peyton Manning is highly overrated, overvalued, whatever negative over connotation this season. I'm not saying that he'll be a total bust (I wouldn't absolutely rule it out either) but he's being drafted entirely too high based on perception rather than reality.

In fantasy football, the most important attribute a player can give a team is consistancy. Peyton Manning does not just give you consistancy alone year in and year out, he gives it to you at the highest level possible, unmatched by any player over the last 8 years at any positon. I have owned him for the last 6 years and there is no equal him period. Never hurt, top 5 every year, and there has never been a week where I would blame him for any fantasy loss I've ever had. Overratted and overvalued.....

I'll assume that you're talking about a keeper league (Unless you're a really big Manning fan to draft him six straight seasons). That's a little different. I never said he was a bad player. In fantasy football I absolutely think that he's overrated and overvalued. I think that people are putting him on such a fantasy pedestal that more often than not he hasn't been worthy of. Unless he has a monster season he is not worth a first-round pick. He offers little risk (this season might be different) but only handful of seasons has the reward been worth the price paid.

Scoring in my league:2006

LT-429

Peyton- 372

LJ- 313

Next highest QB- Brees- 313

2005

1. 1. Alexander, Shaun SEA RB 361.80

2. 2. Palmer, Carson CIN QB 330.84

3. 3. Johnson, Larry KCC RB 327.30

4. 4. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 321.28

5. 5. Barber, Tiki NYG RB 305.00

6. 6. Brady, Tom NEP QB 301.60

7. 7. Manning, Peyton IND QB 299.38

Note, only 31 points between Manning and Palmer, and only 2 pts to Brady.

2004

1. Manning, Peyton IND QB 459.48

2. 2. Culpepper, Daunte MIN QB 451.28

3. 3. McNabb, Donovan PHI QB 353.30

4. 4. Favre, Brett GBP QB 315.92

5. 5. Bills, Buffalo BUF Def 314.75

2003

1. Holmes, Priest KCC RB 371.00

2. 2. Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB 345.84

3. 3. Green, Ahman GBP RB 335.00

4. 4. Manning, Peyton IND QB 328.88 4

5. 5. Culpepper, Daunte MIN QB 323.36

2002

1. Holmes, Priest KCC RB 370.70

2. 2. Gannon, Rich OAK QB 355.16

3. 3. Culpepper, Daunte MIN QB 320.66

4. 4. Manning, Peyton IND QB 318.96

Losing Tarik Glenn IS a factor, but unless you think he was personally playing all 5 O-Line positions, to project Manning outside the top 10 because of his retirement is ridiculous.

Whoever said that he shouldn't be in the top 10? It wasn't me. As of right now I have him 4th behind Palmer, Brees, and Bulger. I just don't think he's the stone cold lock to be the #1 quarterback (which has only happened once in his career) that everyone makes him out to be. Tarik Glenn wasn't playing all 5 positions on the offensive line. He was just playing the most important one which is left tackle. I can't look at his absence and then say it doesn't matter and draft Manning in the first round instead of a running back.You brought up the fantasy point totals but it's not just about how many points a player scores it's about looking at the fantasy point totals compared to players at every position. That's what value is all about. He's usually drafted in the first round every year but only in a couple of them has he actually been worth such lofty status (2004, 2006). Every other season he's been great obviously but he hasn't stood out and he hasn't really been worth the high price paid.