pittstownkiller
Footballguy
For disclosure purposes, I am a Manning owner but do have a "back-up" plan in Rodgers. Where I want to go with this topic is: What now? If you feel that Manning's career is over then, of course, he has little to no value but if he misses the 4-5 weeks that is being talked about, he presents more of a stable value for the FF play-off run, as compared to his sitting out parts of games later in the season when IND usually has their berth wrapped-up. Part of this equation is of course what Collins does; if he goes 3-2, IND can work with that, if it is 0-5, that will be to big of a hole and then the conversation of "do you risk Manning to injury in a lost season" starts - Then there is also the possibility of Collins (or others) going 5-0 and IND not rushing Manning back. So I guess that, IMO, there is a "formula" that I would have to believe will happen for Manning to have High value (of course dynasty has certain implications over re-draft), it is: Manning will need no-more than 12 weeks to recover (something that seems to be plausible) and IND is still in the mix but not too such an extent that they are running away with the division; if this happens (and I feel it is plausible) then I see Manning as having value, perhaps very good value. Let's look at what is known, such as their schedule up until their week 11 bye:
Week 1 Sep 11 Indianapolis @ Houston
Week 2 Sep 18 Cleveland @ Indianapolis
Week 3 Sep 25 Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis
Week 4 Oct 3 Indianapolis @ Tampa Bay
Week 5 Oct 9 Kansas City @ Indianapolis
Week 6 Oct 16 Indianapolis @ Cincinnati
Week 7 Oct 23 Indianapolis @ New Orleans
Week 8 Oct 30 Indianapolis @ Tennessee
Week 9 Nov 6 Atlanta @ Indianapolis
Week 10 Nov 13 Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
Week 11 -- bye--
Since I am terrible at picking NFL games, I would take the following with a grain of salt, but I could see IND being 6-4 heading going into their bye; with me giving losses to HOU, PIT, NO, and ATL. With the above speculation it gives Manning 3-1/2 months to recover, get back up to speed, and step into a playoff run. The promise of a healthy Manning leads to value, especially when you would start to use him. I understand that this is all speculation but that is what we do around here. As for my situation, I think I might try to grab Collins as my hedge.
One last thing that I wanted to add was that while I'm not a conspiracy theorist, I am cynical and I do find it odd that IND gave Manning his contract while this injury was known; could it be that IND put this all in place just so Manning would have the safety net of an insurance policy if this injury was career threatening?
Week 1 Sep 11 Indianapolis @ Houston
Week 2 Sep 18 Cleveland @ Indianapolis
Week 3 Sep 25 Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis
Week 4 Oct 3 Indianapolis @ Tampa Bay
Week 5 Oct 9 Kansas City @ Indianapolis
Week 6 Oct 16 Indianapolis @ Cincinnati
Week 7 Oct 23 Indianapolis @ New Orleans
Week 8 Oct 30 Indianapolis @ Tennessee
Week 9 Nov 6 Atlanta @ Indianapolis
Week 10 Nov 13 Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
Week 11 -- bye--
Since I am terrible at picking NFL games, I would take the following with a grain of salt, but I could see IND being 6-4 heading going into their bye; with me giving losses to HOU, PIT, NO, and ATL. With the above speculation it gives Manning 3-1/2 months to recover, get back up to speed, and step into a playoff run. The promise of a healthy Manning leads to value, especially when you would start to use him. I understand that this is all speculation but that is what we do around here. As for my situation, I think I might try to grab Collins as my hedge.
One last thing that I wanted to add was that while I'm not a conspiracy theorist, I am cynical and I do find it odd that IND gave Manning his contract while this injury was known; could it be that IND put this all in place just so Manning would have the safety net of an insurance policy if this injury was career threatening?
until we hear from the Colts.
I talked here about picking up Collins as my hedge on Manning; instead I picked up Matt Flynn. By picking up Flynn I have a hedge on Rodgers and should not need a QB until week 8; I just bought myself 2+ months for Manning to recover and if he doesn't I'll be in the same boat looking for WW QB. Also by picking up Flynn; I have a bona fide back-up to my stud, an elite back-up in a contract year with the promise to move to a new team at the end of the season, and not having to fight the WW if Rodgers goes down. When I announced at our draft that I was taking Flynn I got a good amounts of "ah c'mon"'s but when I explained my rationale, I had Vick's owner picking up Young and others telling me it might of been the best pick of the night. My case is somewhat limited as we are forced to carry 3 QB's on our rosters and only start 1. My other choices at QB could of been Young, Grossman, and Dalton; all of which I would rather keep Manning for. I ended up releasing Palmer, a QB that I haven't played in three years and didn't trade because I over-valued him but it was worth the risk to wait for the big score. My point for bringing this all up is that there are viable ways to mitigate the chance your taking with Manning and as you gambling folks know, it is always nice to bet with the house's money.
I took him a Phenoms draft last night at 9.05.
