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Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers

Player Page Link: Philip Rivers Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or :popcorn: ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
Guy is a major value this year, even with the loss of VJax. He's pretty much a lock for 4,600 yards passing. The major thing plaguing him was turnovers, and I think he cuts down on them and finishes no.6 overall.

4,700 yards, 31 TDs, 13 INTs

 
Guy is a major value this year, even with the loss of VJax. He's pretty much a lock for 4,600 yards passing. The major thing plaguing him was turnovers, and I think he cuts down on them and finishes no.6 overall.

4,700 yards, 31 TDs, 13 INTs
I think that, despite what was said publicly, he was hurt last season. I agree that he is a major value right now. In an upcoming dynasty auction, he is definitely a target. 4600, 32 touchdowns, 15 picks.

 
Are his receiving targets good-to-go?

Malcom Floyd, Vincent Brown, Richard Goodman, Robert Meachem, Eddie Royal, Ryan Mathews and a 32 year old Antonio Gates who has missed 8 games over the past two years. Good enough to continue the job, but not great. Though there is some potential for a dandy big play connection with Meachem, which could result in 40-50 catches and double digit touchdowns of a very long variety. Particularly given Rivers proclivity to throw bullseyes to his first option. In distance scoring bonus' leagues they could be huge. Floyd should be steady, while Brown or Royal could be the "difference makers" of Rivers being elite or just very good. If either can break loose with Rivers to the tune of 70+ high percentage catches, it would have a marked effect on his over all year-end production.

Is his OLine up to snuff? Rivers needs to be given time to play his best. It appears they might be downgraded some without Marcus McNeil on the blindside.

Running threat? They have it with Mathews, being backed up McClain and Ronnie Brown. And there is just enough consideration of Mathews durability to keep the passing attempts very high once again.

Negatives, his interceptions have climbed the past 2 years. The loss of Vincent Jackson and McNeil probably dont help that scenario. It would be to Rivers and the Chargers advantage if the defense could improve, as they were bottom 10 in yards per play allowed. Though a continuation of that would also be a factor in keeping his passing attempts rather lofty.

Big positive -- he doesn't miss games. At all.

Rivers is a marvelous consolation prize on the owner who misses out out on big 5, while picking up talent at other positions.

And to make the selection even better, there could be another 4 QBs taken in front of him to add even more value.

2012 prediction:

4715 yards (which would be a career high, but in todays NFL its not such a big deal)

26 TDs (with a ceiling 5-7 higher if Gates could play a full slate)

21 Ints, 12 Fumb

575-368 = 66%

 
Coming into the 2010 season, Philip Rivers was seen as the single most player who was going to be decimated by the holdout of Vincent Jackson. Jackson’s holdout was different in that it seemed like everyone knew that he would not come back until late in the season…this in an era when even the most acrimonious holdouts typically end right prior to Labor Day.

So even after a season in which Rivers put up a 4254/28/9 season with an 8.8 YPA, Rivers ADP dropped close to one round because most owners thought that he was going to be severely hamstrung without Jackson to throw to. He was even better without Jackson. Whether there was a direct correlation, what was evident was that the key cog to the SD passing game was Antonio Gates. Gates in 2010 was dynamic. He never had a better stretch and Rivers leaned on him like never before. Malcom Floyd slipped effortlessly into V-Jax’s deep threat role and it was if nothing ever happened.

When V-Jax returned in 2011 though, Rivers struggled in the early part of the season. This also coincided with Antonio Gates slow recovery from his foot injury. But the questions swirled around Rivers own physical well-being. Despite throwing for over 4600+ yards & 27 TD’s…we’ve now seen Rivers ADP slip…the end of Round 6, beginning of Round 7? Really?

Rivers appears to be a perfect example of the FF community having but a 1-year rear view mirror. But from 2008-2010, Rivers put together a 65% Completion Rate and 8.6 YPA. Which means 500 attempts gets you 4300 yards. And the last two seasons Rivers has averaged 561 pass attempts. Granted his YPA slipped below 8 last year…but sometimes I think you simply have to chalk up underperformance to a subpar year and not necessarily the beginning of a career decline/slide.

The Chargers offense without V-Jax? In comes Robert Meachem and Eddie Royal…not to mention the potential emergence of Vincent Brown. Antonio Gates…? The foot scares people and he is getting older. But he’s not Alge Crumpler like in his conditioning habits in the latter stages of his career. Gates has always kept himself in top shape when he’s been physically able to. Early reports this off-season have him healthier than he ever was last season. What also will help Rivers is if Jared Gaither can play at the level he played at upon being signed in-season last year. If so, the LT position will be back to a level of stability when Marcus McNeil was close to an All-Pro.

With the advent of the 5000 yard passer in the NFL, my temptation was/is to try and secure QB earlier than I normally would. I’m typically a wait for your QB drafter…and I would say earlier this off-season, I was leaning toward going QB early. But when I see value in spades at QB1 in guys like Romo, Big Ben, Ryan, Rivers…it’s tough to ignore that and hit the high demand/low supply positions first. I see a return to form for Rivers, or close to it where he limits his mistakes, ratchets up his efficiency and leads the Chargers back to the playoffs.

Prediction: 344 Completions, 537 Pass Attempts, 4496 Passing Yards; 32 TD’s, 8 INT’s; 23 Rushes 27 Rushing Yards, 1 TD.

 
Evan Silva broke down all 20 of Rivers' interceptions last year. The majority were long balls to Vincent Jackson. 13 of the 20 were errant, underthrown or otherwise Rivers' fault.

Silva makes the case that Rivers may be entering the decline phase of his career as the reason for all the picks rather than potential injury.

:confused:

If Rivers had many more unforced/errant throws last year than at any other time, that still sounds like an injury rather than decline from a 31 year old QB.

 

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