Phillip Dorsett underrated in rookie drafts? (1 Viewer)

[pizzatyme]

I don't fully understand the cap but I do believe both TY and Luck are up for new contracts next year along with a few other guys. The Colts may be reluctant to pay what TY will ask for. I know the cap goes up next year and there's also a chance AJ2000 continues to decline, so I believe in the upside of a guy I LOVED based on what I saw live at the Combine in conjunction with his tape and measurable attributes.

Early 2nd rounder in a rookie draft easily for me.

I think the Colts can easily retain both and that won't be a problem if they choose. The importance of capitalizing on Luck and where he is as an ascending player can't be ignored. Its pointless to have 15% of your cap tied up to a franchise QB if you govern him by taking away the weapons that are working perfectly.

I agree on the slot for Dorsett. I, personally, won't take him in the top 11 or 12 but if he is 16 overall and after, I think you pull the trigger and smile.

Fleener and Allen with both be due for a new contract as well. Luck will probably become the highest paid player in the game, so it'll be interesting to see if there is enough money to bring all four back.

And more importantly, in my opinion, what the hell will the defense look like if they do bring all 4 back?! They can't repeat the mistakes of the past with Manning and continue to focus primarily on offense. It's a non-Super Bowl winning combination.

 

[menobrown]

Still think EBF's ranking of 1.07 seems way too early and he could be a role player very easily.

Role players in a loaded offense can be worth a lot though. IMO Decker, Cobb, Welker, Sanders, Hilton, and Edelman owe a lot of their past production to their opportunity. It takes a certain amount of talent to capitalize on that opportunity, but I don't see a problem there for Dorsett. He is blazing fast and a crisp athlete, with good enough hands. Even if you buy the idea that he was a reach in the 1st, wouldn't you still be excited about him in this offense if he had been a 2nd or even a 3rd rounder?

Sometimes these "unexpected" 1st round picks go the way of Buster Davis or AJ Jenkins, but I'm higher on Dorsett than I was on either of those guys and I think Kelvin Benjamin from last year's draft serves as a pretty good reminder of what can happen when rookie drafters try to outsmart the NFL draft. All that aside, Perriman/Dorsett/Agholor might be a tight debate and I can see arguments for all three players. Personally, I feel Dorsett offers a good combination of securtiy and upside, which is why I give him the edge over Perriman (high upside, but feels like a bust) and Agholor (thought he was okay at USC, but not totally sold).

Where I think the really huge mistakes are occurring is when people are taking guys like Devin Smith, Jaelen Strong, and David Johnson ahead of him (happened in several of my leagues).

Decker, Cobb, Welker, Sanders, Hilton, and Edelman were all every down players so they weren't role players. Dorsett could be on the bench 50% of the time, or even 30% which would hurt his value a alot. I could certainly be wrong but two 5'9" receivers don't see the field at the same time very often. I think it's a gamble. He could be a good, talented player and still not be more than a wr4. As I said I drafted him at 2.01 so it's not like I hate him. He certainly has a very high ceiling with Luck but unless they let Hilton walk I'm not loving the situation. In this case I felt like his ceiling and the fact that I had a very deep team overall, made it a good pick. On a weak, rebuilding team I'd be a lot more hesitant to gamble on him.

He could also simply beat Hilton in a year or two or be on par with him. Sounds crazy but Hilton is certainly talking like it's a competition.

Of course if before the end of next season that looks like a possibility one would assume that increases the chances of the second bolded part coming to fruition and they don't want to pay what it takes to keep Hilton.

Or not. Maybe they are comfortable starting two smaller speed WR's that have the kind of speed to open up the field. I was listening to a Move the Sticks Podcast after the draft and Daniel Jeremiah and Charles Davis both insinuated the Texans picked Kevin Johnson in part due to their struggles stopping Hilton which the Colts countered by taking Hilton so they could in effect maintain that mismatch. Do I buy it? No. But it's an interesting take.

There's almost zero chance Hilton is beat out and is sitting on the bench. People are ridiculous about draft pedigree in football. It doesn't mean anything 3 years down the road. Hilton is more than a product of Luck.

It's wrong to me to say Dorsett and never be better than Hilton. As you say Hilton is not a product of Luck I agree to some extent, I sure don't think he'd be nearly as productive with an inferior QB. But we don' know how good Dorsett will be yet to go around putting caps on how good he can be at this point is ridiculous to me. He was held in high regard by a lot of people and a lot of people though he'd be a first round pick so it's fair to say he's not just reliant on Luck to be good anymore than Hilton.

 

[mcintyre1]

I was never that impressed watching him play (but to be fair, my exposure has been limited, need to watch more), but he fell to pick 21 (2.09) in my 12 team PPR. Guys like Jaelen Strong and Tyler Lockett went ahead of him. That's crazy town. Yeah, he's short, but he IS really fast. My initial feel is that he's Hilton with 1st round physical tools, but that's tempered by never having really been a Hilton fan (felt like his success is largely related to his QB and opportunity). I'll happily sit on that a year or two to find out for the price.

 

[Tau837]

1. First round pedigree.

2. 4.2 speed.

3. Luck at QB.

4. Pass heavy offense with below average defense for the foreseeable future.

Sure, the target group is crowded, but Carter and Moncrief are unproven, AJ is old, and Hilton could take more money to play elsewhere. IMO odds are good that by 2017 (at the latest), Dorsett will be one of the top 2 WRs on a (still) pass happy Colts team with the top passing QB in the game, and he could be the #1.

Sign me up for that. Traded two 2015 3rd round rookie draft picks and an expected late 2016 2nd round rookie pick to move up to 2.2 and draft him this year.

 

[Cripster]

In 3-4 12 team dynasty drafts I was in, he was available late in the second round. I got him in 3 leagues.

 

[pizzatyme]

1. First round pedigree.

2. 4.2 speed.

3. Luck at QB.

4. Pass heavy offense with below average defense for the foreseeable future.

Sure, the target group is crowded, but Carter and Moncrief are unproven, AJ is old, and Hilton could take more money to play elsewhere. IMO odds are good that by 2017 (at the latest), Dorsett will be one of the top 2 WRs on a (still) pass happy Colts team with the top passing QB in the game, and he could be the #1.

Sign me up for that. Traded two 2015 3rd round rookie draft picks and an expected late 2016 2nd round rookie pick to move up to 2.2 and draft him this year.

Exactly where I was in my 2 drafts. I took him @2.1 and 2.4 and couldn't be happier with his upside at that point in the draft.

 

[Boone22]

According to the Indianapolis Star, first-round pick Phillip Dorsett is "already flashing in practices."

Dorsett "seamlessly" worked his way into the lineup with veterans, and was found for "a series of deep throws" by Andrew Luck. "It's definitely not too big for him," Luck observed. The Colts are crosstraining Dorsett at both outside and slot receiver. He seems likely to be T.Y. Hilton's direct backup this season, with Donte Moncrief practicing behind Andre Johnson.

 

[Soulfly3]

Deep throws from Luck

Is there any sweeter words?

This guys ADP is gonna soar soon