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Phil's Top 10 rb list (1 Viewer)

P

Phil McRevis

Footballguy
Phil believes the following players will be top ten guys this year. It's not how they should be drafted but how they will finish. Phil took various things into account - expected # of touches, other team weapons, coaching philosophy, o-line, strength of schedule, expected goal line opportunities.

Standard scoring, non ppr.

#1 Frank Gore - New uglies along the o-line. Singletary is going to run a lot. Great schedule.

#2 Chris Johnson - No explanation needed. Is there?

#3 DeAngelo - He is incredibly gifted. And Fox gives the ball to his starter more than the backup. Stewart is great but DeAngelo imo has one of the better chances to break into the top three outside the expected names.

#4 Michael Turner - 20+ touches every game, can break long runs, and is THE goal line option.

#5 ADP - It's a bit lower than others predict but he's still the safest of picks. Pretty incredible talent and very safe floor.

#6 SJax - Super stud every year. Even without the touchdowns he's a top 5 rb. And if he could ever get the td's...

#7 Ronnie Brown - he'll probably get hurt with another 'fluke' injury. But until then he'll be a stud. Like always.

#8 Matt Forte - Crap team, garbage o-line, and I'm not sold on his talent. But Martz gives his guys decent amount of carries and LOADS of receptions.

#9 Shonn Greene - I think LT is washed up. Jets have an amazing o-line. Ryan will run the ball to hide his qb again.

#10 Benson - I'm admittedly a bit nervous about the effect of TO. But I still think Lewis will ride him into the ground.

Shocking fall offs - MJD. I know the o-line was really banged up and they should be better. I know when he's healthy he's always a great option that overcomes his mediocre team. I know I'll probably be wrong on this guy when the season ends. But looking at his potential injury, how much he fell off last year, and the team in general, has me perhaps being overly negative on him.

Ray Rice. I think they'll pass the ball a lot more. And not dump offs to the rb like last year. I don't think he'll come anywhere near last year's receiving totals. Nor do I want to count on him breaking 5 ypc again. I don't think he'll get a ton of touchdowns. I do love any rb in a Cam Cameron offense but I simply have others higher on my list.

Ryan Grant. The yards will put him in the top 10. Touchdowns are harder to predict. And it's not a team that makes running a priority. I'd be fine with as one of my rb's but I don't think he'll finish top ten fantasy wise.

Ask questions and/or critique the list. Phil came up with facts, stats, and logic behind all of these. Whether those facts, stats, and logic are faulty remains to be seen...

 
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Phil should do two things. Phil should stop referring to himself in the 3rd person and Phil should change the spelling of his name to McRevasse because right now people are going to read that as McReevis since he's on our minds!

Just friendly suggestions. :lmao:

 
coachjim said:
Come on!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That be Light Blue Jesus or in the afterlife Chris Johnson.
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Sorry ... that straight-up is not a well-known nickname for the guy. On sports fora, "LBJ" refers to LeBron James first, second, third, and fourth. Maybe then you get to an esoteric Chris Johnson reference. Maybe....[putsonflameproofgear]Arian Foster will end up top 10.[/putsonflameproofgear]
 
Phil McRevis said:
Shocking fall offs - MJD. I know the o-line was really banged up and they should be better. I know when he's healthy he's always a great option that overcomes his mediocre team. I know I'll probably be wrong on this guy when the season ends. But looking at his potential injury, how much he fell off last year, and the team in general, has me perhaps being overly negative on him.
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How much he fell off last year? Are you referring to the fact that he had 935 yards in the first half of the season and "only" 826 in the last half? Or how his second half "slump" still would have left him as fantasy RB7 if he'd performed at that level over the full season?Maurice Jones-Drew's "late season slide" last year was in all likelihood just dumb luck and random variation... but even if there was some substance to it, his disappointing numbers still left him a top-10 stud.

 
ItsOnlytheRiver said:
Phil McRevis said:
gary mexico said:
I see Phil has missed the boat on best, thats a shame....
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Where do you see Best finishing? Phil thinks he's an excellent pick and a fantastic #2 rb. But in order to crack the top 10 you'll need lots and lots of carries (or catches). Or lots of touchdowns.
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So lots of carries and TDs = fantasy success? Please, Mr. Science, tell me more!
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But that's the point. Too many people try to get cute in an attempt to nail the next sleeper pick. Ie Best, Charles, etc. When in reality it's pretty simple. Pick the guys that are going to get the most touches. Then start looking at the team (ie touchdown opportunities), the o-line, and strength of schedule. :yucky: It ain't rocket science.
 
Researching the LBJ thing (sorry, Phil ... not piling on. Just thought it was funny):

When did Chase Stuart start writing a blog for the New York Times?

Noting his team’s colors, some Titans fans called him Light Blue Jesus (or LBJ for short) last year.
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Who has ever called him Light Blue Jesus? That is the first time many Titans fans have heard him referred to as that.-- Jamiel

Yea, who calls him Light Blue Jesus???? Never heard that. I have heard of the other stuff, but mostly we call the young man Crazy Legs.

-- Jamel

I am a Titans fan and been to every home game since they came to nashville. I have never heard ANYONE call him LBJ. Everyone calls his just simply CJ.

-- Adam



Click to expand...
 
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SSOG said:
Phil McRevis said:
Shocking fall offs - MJD. I know the o-line was really banged up and they should be better. I know when he's healthy he's always a great option that overcomes his mediocre team. I know I'll probably be wrong on this guy when the season ends. But looking at his potential injury, how much he fell off last year, and the team in general, has me perhaps being overly negative on him.
Click to expand...
How much he fell off last year? Are you referring to the fact that he had 935 yards in the first half of the season and "only" 826 in the last half? Or how his second half "slump" still would have left him as fantasy RB7 if he'd performed at that level over the full season?Maurice Jones-Drew's "late season slide" last year was in all likelihood just dumb luck and random variation... but even if there was some substance to it, his disappointing numbers still left him a top-10 stud.
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Or maybe it was the o-line's sucktitude catching up. Or maybe the fact he averaged less than 4 ypc over the last 7 weeks pointed to him being tired. Or maybe with Sims Walker getting hurt and falling off teams decided to focus on MJD. Maybe it was the fact that his touchdown production fell of a cliff (by his standards) and he only got 5 more td's in that second half of the year.And maybe the fact he possibly has some meniscus issues right now are enough to scare Phil away.

 
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No on Forte and Steven Jackson.

Mike Martz is far too pass-crazed to utilize Forte, and Chester Taylor will be worked into the mix.

Steven Jackson is incredibly talented. I still say it was a terrible idea for then coach/GM Bill Parcells to trade out of the first round and pass on taking Jackson.

Ray Rice and MJD are going to be beasts once again this year. Don't foresee any fall-offs there. I do agree on Ronnie Brown being a Top 10 RB. As long as he stays healthy, he is a monster. He's the modern day "Fragile Fred".

 
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Doug B said:
Researching the LBJ thing (sorry, Phil ... not piling on. Just thought it was funny):

When did Chase Stuart start writing a blog for the New York Times?

Noting his team’s colors, some Titans fans called him Light Blue Jesus (or LBJ for short) last year.
Click to expand...
Who has ever called him Light Blue Jesus? That is the first time many Titans fans have heard him referred to as that.-- Jamiel

Yea, who calls him Light Blue Jesus???? Never heard that. I have heard of the other stuff, but mostly we call the young man Crazy Legs.

-- Jamel

I am a Titans fan and been to every home game since they came to nashville. I have never heard ANYONE call him LBJ. Everyone calls his just simply CJ.

-- Adam



Click to expand...
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So we are listening to Jamel and Jamiel now? Are they a package deal or was there a slip up in data entry dept. BTW, while we are coming up geeky nicknames, I nominate CJ Spiller as "American Jesus". He wears the Red, White and Blue, and while I was tempted to nickname him "American Moses" for variation purposes, it just did not have that same ring.
 
glumpy said:
The_U said:
Pots said:
daveandken said:
BuckeyeChaos said:
LBJ?
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What about him?
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Who is he?!
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Pleeeeeese. Chris Freaking Johnson.L ightB lueJ esus
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lol. Like everybody should know all these fun tags people put on players. I was busy checking if Mr Phil could really be talking about Larry Johnson but then it woulda been an A.
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Ha. JamesTheScot had the same thought. JamesTheScot was about to at least give the Phil some credit for being courageous enough to go public with such a crazy-as-a-####house-rat prediction.
 
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dcgangstas said:
No on Forte and Steven Jackson. Mike Martz is far too pass-crazed to utilize Forte, and Chester Taylor will be worked into the mix. Steven Jackson is incredibly talented. I still say it was a terrible idea for then coach/GM Bill Parcells to trade out of the first round and pass on taking Jackson. Ray Rice and MJD are going to be beasts once again this year. Don't foresee any fall-offs there. I do agree on Ronnie Brown being a Top 10 RB. As long as he stays healthy, he is a monster. He's the modern day "Fragile Fred".
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Phil doesn't get it. How is Steven Jackson a 'no' when you say he's incredibly talented? What is going to go wrong for him that will prevent him from finishing in the top ten yet again?Frank Gore averaged just under 17 carries a game under Martz. And more than 3 catches a game. Phil doesn't think Martz shies away from rb's as much as people seem to think.
 
Phil McRevis said:
Doug B said:
[putsonflameproofgear]

Arian Foster will end up top 10.

[/putsonflameproofgear]
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Phil's intrigued. Please share your reasoning.
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1) Foster's role in the third preseason game -- the regular-season dress rehearsal -- was as the 3-down feature back. 2) He'll have that role on a decent Texans team with a more than solid offense. Schaub, Johnson, and Co. will get their RB lots of opportunities.

3) It looks likely that Foster will stay on the field for a lot of 3rd downs. Cribbed from another site: "[Foster] remained in the [Dallas] game for a pair of third-and-6 situations, one of which he converted with a short reception. Overall Foster caught 4 passes and was targeted three other times."

4) Foster's competition has been falling by the wayside. Ben Tate is out for the year. Steve Slaton has turf toe, and that's not usually something that goes away quickly. Guys take pain injections for turf toe and play with it, but it saps a player's ability more than almost any other play-through injury.

 
Phil McRevis said:
Phil believes the following players will be top ten guys this year. It's not how they should be drafted but how they will finish. Phil took various things into account - expected # of touches, other team weapons, coaching philosophy, o-line, strength of schedule, expected goal line opportunities. Standard scoring, non ppr.#1 Frank Gore - New uglies along the o-line. Singletary is going to run a lot. Great schedule.#2 LBJ - No explanation needed. Is there?#3 DeAngelo - He is incredibly gifted. And Fox gives the ball to his starter more than the backup. Stewart is great but DeAngelo imo has one of the better chances to break into the top three outside the expected names.#4 Michael Turner - 20+ touches every game, can break long runs, and is THE goal line option. #5 ADP - It's a bit lower than others predict but he's still the safest of picks. Pretty incredible talent and very safe floor. #6 SJax - Super stud every year. Even without the touchdowns he's a top 5 rb. And if he could ever get the td's...#7 Ronnie Brown - he'll probably get hurt with another 'fluke' injury. But until then he'll be a stud. Like always.#8 Matt Forte - Crap team, garbage o-line, and I'm not sold on his talent. But Martz gives his guys decent amount of carries and LOADS of receptions.#9 Shonn Greene - I think LT is washed up. Jets have an amazing o-line. Ryan will run the ball to hide his qb again.#10 Benson - I'm admittedly a bit nervous about the effect of TO. But I still think Lewis will ride him into the ground.Shocking fall offs - MJD. I know the o-line was really banged up and they should be better. I know when he's healthy he's always a great option that overcomes his mediocre team. I know I'll probably be wrong on this guy when the season ends. But looking at his potential injury, how much he fell off last year, and the team in general, has me perhaps being overly negative on him. Ray Rice. I think they'll pass the ball a lot more. And not dump offs to the rb like last year. I don't think he'll come anywhere near last year's receiving totals. Nor do I want to count on him breaking 5 ypc again. I don't think he'll get a ton of touchdowns. I do love any rb in a Cam Cameron offense but I simply have others higher on my list.Ryan Grant. The yards will put him in the top 10. Touchdowns are harder to predict. And it's not a team that makes running a priority. I'd be fine with as one of my rb's but I don't think he'll finish top ten fantasy wise.Ask questions and/or critique the list. Phil came up with facts, stats, and logic behind all of these. Whether those facts, stats, and logic are faulty remains to be seen...
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I like your list but I have two guys that I think do not belong. I think the Jets are going to win with a bunch of defense and very little offense. Green would not be in my top 10. Ronnie Brown is the next guy I would be concerned about. With Ricky there they will split carries to some degree and he is pretty fragile.
 
gary mexico said:
Phil McRevis said:
gary mexico said:
I see Phil has missed the boat on best, thats a shame....
Click to expand...
Where do you see Best finishing? Phil thinks he's an excellent pick and a fantastic #2 rb. But in order to crack the top 10 you'll need lots and lots of carries (or catches). Or lots of touchdowns.
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I think he's getting all of those, top 10 for best :goodposting:
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How many touches a game do you see Best getting? More than 15? Do you see him getting 8 or more touchdowns?
 
Bump out Ronnie Brown, Forte and Shonn Greene. Knock SJax down to 7. Put in Ray Rice at 6, Foster at 8 and Grant at 9, then I'll buy what you are selling.

 
coachjim said:
I like your list but I have two guys that I think do not belong. I think the Jets are going to win with a bunch of defense and very little offense. Green would not be in my top 10. Ronnie Brown is the next guy I would be concerned about. With Ricky there they will split carries to some degree and he is pretty fragile.
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Thank you coachjim.Didn't the Jets do that last year? And Thomas Jones was 3rd in the league in rushing. Plus he looked awful...really just ran straight ahead and fell over. Give Greene a chunk of those carries and Phil sees little reason he won't be a very reasonable comparison.
 
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Phil McRevis said:
rizzler said:
Phil McRevis said:
Instinctive said:
You left off Jermichael Finley. He can go into LeBron's spot...since he isn't a RB anyway.
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Phil's confused. What's with people mentioning Finley? He's a TE. :lmao:
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Phil needs to watch some football.Finley in the past 2 weeks, has become a QB, RB, WR and Corner.Where you been?
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:goodposting: Phil thinks this kind of stuff belongs at places like fftoday. Not at fbg's. Thank you.
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well, Phil is gonna miss out on a potential 4500yd and 50 passing TD QB campaign from Finley
 
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