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Physics and astronomy thread (3 Viewers)


Lots of reports today that the odds have increased to 3.1 percent.

NASA took it back down to 1.5%


If I’m understanding the science here - they’ll be able to see this asteroid for roughly another 2 months - at which point it will be outside our view until 2028 or so. That means the potential impact timeline when we’re able to view it again will only be 4 years out. That’s a bit unnerving.

The latest report puts the chance of hitting Earth at 1 in 59,000, leading astronomers to conclude we are no longer in danger.
 
stunning video from Blue Ghost orbiting low as it prepares to land on the moon, Mar 2.



Blue Ghost is slated to touch down near Mare Crisium, in the northeast quadrant on the near side of the Moon, as part of NASA’s CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) initiative and Artemis campaign to establish a long-term lunar presence. Live coverage of the landing, jointly hosted by NASA and Firefly, will air on NASA+ starting at 2:20 a.m. EST, approximately 75 minutes before touch down on the Moon’s surface.

For anyone who will be up at 2-3 am.
 
Perhaps the most difficult, nail-biting stretch of Blue Ghost’s mission is over with. The vehicle is sitting on the moon’s near side, within an ancient crater filled with volcanic material.

Here’s what still lies ahead:

  • Blue Ghost will unfurl its X-band antenna, which can beam troves of data and video down from the moon. That should be happening right now.
  • NASA and Firefly will verify all 10 science and tech demonstrations are in working order. Over the next two weeks, mission teams will collect information on everything from how the lunar soil behaved during descent to studying the heat flow from the moon’s interior.
  • Blue Ghost will experience an eclipse on March 14 as Earth casts a shadow on the landing site.
  • Just before lunar nightfall, Blue Ghost will aim to capture photos of a “lunar horizon glow,” a phenomenon during which moon dust will briefly levitate.
  • About 14 days into the mission, Blue Ghost’s landing site will be plunged into lunar night. The lander will then need to rely on battery power as the company aims to keep it functioning in temperatures as cold as minus 250°F (minus 130°C).
  • At the end of its operations, Blue Ghost will stay put, destined to remain on the moon’s surface indefinitely.
 
Perhaps the most difficult, nail-biting stretch of Blue Ghost’s mission is over with. The vehicle is sitting on the moon’s near side, within an ancient crater filled with volcanic material.

Here’s what still lies ahead:

  • Blue Ghost will unfurl its X-band antenna, which can beam troves of data and video down from the moon. That should be happening right now.
  • NASA and Firefly will verify all 10 science and tech demonstrations are in working order. Over the next two weeks, mission teams will collect information on everything from how the lunar soil behaved during descent to studying the heat flow from the moon’s interior.
  • Blue Ghost will experience an eclipse on March 14 as Earth casts a shadow on the landing site.
  • Just before lunar nightfall, Blue Ghost will aim to capture photos of a “lunar horizon glow,” a phenomenon during which moon dust will briefly levitate.
  • About 14 days into the mission, Blue Ghost’s landing site will be plunged into lunar night. The lander will then need to rely on battery power as the company aims to keep it functioning in temperatures as cold as minus 250°F (minus 130°C).
  • At the end of its operations, Blue Ghost will stay put, destined to remain on the moon’s surface indefinitely.
Quite an achievement for Firefly. I almost applied there about six years ago. I’m not sure I was qualified, but it would’ve been cool to be a part of that.
 
Meanwhile... Athena (Intuitive Machines), another private lander with robotic rover was scheduled to land (eta: on the moon) about 30 minutes ago.

Nobody sure if it landed successfully or not- conflicting info with some telemetry issues on landing, but also sent a message saying things ok.

News conference at 4pm EST
 
Looks like they lost attitude control and ultimately total contact with the Starship 8 vehicle. Did however successfully retrieve the booster once again on the tower.
 
Meanwhile... Athena (Intuitive Machines), another private lander with robotic rover was scheduled to land (eta: on the moon) about 30 minutes ago.

Nobody sure if it landed successfully or not- conflicting info with some telemetry issues on landing, but also sent a message saying things ok.

News conference at 4pm EST
Looks like they landed, and then ended up on its side... Again.
 
IM-2 update:

"3/7/25 | 0829 Intuitive Machines Executes Southernmost Lunar Landing and Operates Payloads
HOUSTON, TX – March 7, 2025 – Intuitive Machines, Inc. (Nasdaq: LUNR, LUNRW) (“Intuitive Machines”) (“Company”), a leading space exploration, infrastructure, and services company, has announced the IM-2 mission lunar lander, Athena, landed 250 meters from its intended landing site in the Mons Mouton region of the lunar south pole, inside of a crater. This was the southernmost lunar landing and surface operations ever achieved.

Images downlinked from Athena on the lunar surface confirmed that Athena was on her side. After landing, mission controllers were able to accelerate several program and payload milestones, including NASA’s PRIME-1 suite, before the lander’s batteries depleted.

With the direction of the sun, the orientation of the solar panels, and extreme cold temperatures in the crater, Intuitive Machines does not expect Athena to recharge. The mission has concluded and teams are continuing to assess the data collected throughout the mission."
 
IM-2 update:

"3/7/25 | 0829 Intuitive Machines Executes Southernmost Lunar Landing and Operates Payloads
HOUSTON, TX – March 7, 2025 – Intuitive Machines, Inc. (Nasdaq: LUNR, LUNRW) (“Intuitive Machines”) (“Company”), a leading space exploration, infrastructure, and services company, has announced the IM-2 mission lunar lander, Athena, landed 250 meters from its intended landing site in the Mons Mouton region of the lunar south pole, inside of a crater. This was the southernmost lunar landing and surface operations ever achieved.

Images downlinked from Athena on the lunar surface confirmed that Athena was on her side. After landing, mission controllers were able to accelerate several program and payload milestones, including NASA’s PRIME-1 suite, before the lander’s batteries depleted.

With the direction of the sun, the orientation of the solar panels, and extreme cold temperatures in the crater, Intuitive Machines does not expect Athena to recharge. The mission has concluded and teams are continuing to assess the data collected throughout the mission."
WTH with that company and landers going sideways...
 
IM-2 update:

"3/7/25 | 0829 Intuitive Machines Executes Southernmost Lunar Landing and Operates Payloads
HOUSTON, TX – March 7, 2025 – Intuitive Machines, Inc. (Nasdaq: LUNR, LUNRW) (“Intuitive Machines”) (“Company”), a leading space exploration, infrastructure, and services company, has announced the IM-2 mission lunar lander, Athena, landed 250 meters from its intended landing site in the Mons Mouton region of the lunar south pole, inside of a crater. This was the southernmost lunar landing and surface operations ever achieved.

Images downlinked from Athena on the lunar surface confirmed that Athena was on her side. After landing, mission controllers were able to accelerate several program and payload milestones, including NASA’s PRIME-1 suite, before the lander’s batteries depleted.

With the direction of the sun, the orientation of the solar panels, and extreme cold temperatures in the crater, Intuitive Machines does not expect Athena to recharge. The mission has concluded and teams are continuing to assess the data collected throughout the mission."
WTH with that company and landers going sideways...
Yes, I think they have the sideways landing down pretty good. Looking at the design it appears to be kind of top heavy with the vertical design and prone to tip over with any horizontal movement as it's landing.
 
I put these links in the "are aliens visiting us" thread, but it's probably better here. This feels like kind of a big deal, but getting little to no traction (I understand there's a lot going on in the news cycle). Maybe I'm missing something, but if there's really signs of ancient life on the planet next door it seems to question just how rare life elsewhere (everywhere) really is.


 
I put these links in the "are aliens visiting us" thread, but it's probably better here. This feels like kind of a big deal, but getting little to no traction (I understand there's a lot going on in the news cycle). Maybe I'm missing something, but if there's really signs of ancient life on the planet next door it seems to question just how rare life elsewhere (everywhere) really is.


The gist is that there's "biosignatures", meaning that there are compounds present that are "most likely" produced by microbial life. That doesn't mean that they found fossilized microbes, or DNA, or anything else directly showing biology. The compounds *could* have been produced by other, non-biological means. We won't know until we can really analyze these Martian rocks in a more detailed analysis in a better equipped laboratory on Earth.

That said, this is a pretty big deal as it adds yet one more piece of evidence that there was microbial life present on Mars a long time ago. That's pretty cool.
 
I put these links in the "are aliens visiting us" thread, but it's probably better here. This feels like kind of a big deal, but getting little to no traction (I understand there's a lot going on in the news cycle). Maybe I'm missing something, but if there's really signs of ancient life on the planet next door it seems to question just how rare life elsewhere (everywhere) really is.


The gist is that there's "biosignatures", meaning that there are compounds present that are "most likely" produced by microbial life. That doesn't mean that they found fossilized microbes, or DNA, or anything else directly showing biology. The compounds *could* have been produced by other, non-biological means. We won't know until we can really analyze these Martian rocks in a more detailed analysis in a better equipped laboratory on Earth.

That said, this is a pretty big deal as it adds yet one more piece of evidence that there was microbial life present on Mars a long time ago. That's pretty cool.
Right, signs of life, not necessarily fossils until/unless closer inspection of returned samples show that. As it stands life is the most plausible explanation, but unproven as of yet.

And I fully agree this is super cool and a bigger deal than it appears to be given credit.
 
I dont recall...and my memory sucks, so caveats etc...but i dont recall in my many readings of JPL and NASA communications over the years the director preempting the info by giving credit to the president in whose term the event happened.

The news itself *could* be really game changing, the *could* contain part remains exciting....although i generally nip my excitement in the *could/maybe/possibly* part of news.
 
I was sooo gungho on Artemis and manned moon missions (originally scheduled iirc for 2024 :kicksrock: ) but then lost track.

Artemis 1 went unmanned around the moon in 2022.
Artemis 2 scheduled to follow suit as early as Feb 2026- this time manned! they released the 4 astronaut crew info recently.
Artemis X maybe sorta possibly for 2030 with a manned landing.
A friend here just moved to Louisiana to work on Artemis.
 
Ruh Roh Raggy. The newest interstellar comet (or "comet?") has shown signs of non-gravitational acceleration and an unexplained color change.


:alien: I hope they're nice when they land. Klaatu barada nikto, good buddies.
 
Ruh Roh Raggy. The newest interstellar comet (or "comet?") has shown signs of non-gravitational acceleration and an unexplained color change.


:alien:I hope they're nice when they land. Klaatu barada nikto, good buddies.
This stuff is super fascinating to me. I just hate there are so many clickbait titles and straight up false stories surrounding 3I/Atlas out there. It makes it difficult to find real information when NASA takes their sweet time posting news.
 
Ruh Roh Raggy. The newest interstellar comet (or "comet?") has shown signs of non-gravitational acceleration and an unexplained color change.


:alien:I hope they're nice when they land. Klaatu barada nikto, good buddies.
This stuff is super fascinating to me. I just hate there are so many clickbait titles and straight up false stories surrounding 3I/Atlas out there. It makes it difficult to find real information when NASA takes their sweet time posting news.
This is my biggest issue is 90% of the info out there is conspiracy theories about it. I find it fascinating as to why and how but it’s impossible to actually get good info.

Interesting comment I heard was how 2,000 years ago everyone blamed the gods. Now we find that absurd as we know a hurricane is not Poseidon being angry. Today it’s always aliens for anything we don’t know in space. Likewise in hundreds of years we will find why we think we’re aliens is equally as silly.
 
Ruh Roh Raggy. The newest interstellar comet (or "comet?") has shown signs of non-gravitational acceleration and an unexplained color change.


:alien:I hope they're nice when they land. Klaatu barada nikto, good buddies.
This stuff is super fascinating to me. I just hate there are so many clickbait titles and straight up false stories surrounding 3I/Atlas out there. It makes it difficult to find real information when NASA takes their sweet time posting news.
I couldn't agree more. This is the trend with absolutely everything in society and culture and it bugs the crap out of me.

Anyway, I don't think non gravitational acceleration is all that unusual for comets. As the comet approaches the sun, the ices sublimes and gasses are expelled created a source of thrust. I am not well versed on 3I/ATLAS, but I believe I read that the unusual thing here is the amount of acceleration is larger than typically observed which seems to correspond to a fairly large percentage of the comet's mass being ejected.
 
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Ruh Roh Raggy. The newest interstellar comet (or "comet?") has shown signs of non-gravitational acceleration and an unexplained color change.


:alien:I hope they're nice when they land. Klaatu barada nikto, good buddies.
Read this yesterday and have been following the 3I/ATLAS story since some of the first information started coming out. It's a really fascinating object that doesn't always act as expected. NASA has been pretty quiet on it due to the shutdown? Would be nice to get some images or information directly from them, but since there isn't much the door is certainly open for other more fun explanations.

"Ack Ack Ack"- :alien:
 
Avi Loeb has been driving the 3I/Atlas could be a UFO thing and it's really weird, feels like he's cherry picking info and acting fairly unscientific, at one point putting the odds at 40% this was an alien craft. 40%?! What happened to this guy? Now watch him be right.
 
Ruh Roh Raggy. The newest interstellar comet (or "comet?") has shown signs of non-gravitational acceleration and an unexplained color change.


:alien:I hope they're nice when they land. Klaatu barada nikto, good buddies.
This stuff is super fascinating to me. I just hate there are so many clickbait titles and straight up false stories surrounding 3I/Atlas out there. It makes it difficult to find real information when NASA takes their sweet time posting news.
I couldn't agree more. This is the trend with absolutely everything in society and culture and it bugs the crap out of me.

Anyway, I don't think non gravitational acceleration is all that unusual for comets. As the comet approaches the sun, the ices sublimes and gasses are expelled created a source of thrust. I am not well versed on 3I/ATLAS, but I believe I read that the unusual thing here is the amount of acceleration is larger than typically observed which seems to correspond to a fairly large percentage of the comet's mass being ejected.
Expelled gasses have also been noted in trajectory changes, color shifts, and deceleration. Science is cool, when we pay attention to it.
 
Avi Loeb has been driving the 3I/Atlas could be a UFO thing and it's really weird, feels like he's cherry picking info and acting fairly unscientific, at one point putting the odds at 40% this was an alien craft. 40%?! What happened to this guy? Now watch him be right.
Tried to listen to him on Rogan, had to bail. What's his backstory? Was he a well respected astrophysicist before he embraced the alien angle or something?
 
Avi Loeb has been driving the 3I/Atlas could be a UFO thing and it's really weird, feels like he's cherry picking info and acting fairly unscientific, at one point putting the odds at 40% this was an alien craft. 40%?! What happened to this guy? Now watch him be right.
Tried to listen to him on Rogan, had to bail. What's his backstory? Was he a well respected astrophysicist before he embraced the alien angle or something?

He has the credentials to be taken seriously. Not that credentials have stopped grifting in the past, but he would seem to be someone that is using science vs "trust me bro" for his hypothesis.
 
Avi Loeb has been driving the 3I/Atlas could be a UFO thing and it's really weird, feels like he's cherry picking info and acting fairly unscientific, at one point putting the odds at 40% this was an alien craft. 40%?! What happened to this guy? Now watch him be right.
Tried to listen to him on Rogan, had to bail. What's his backstory? Was he a well respected astrophysicist before he embraced the alien angle or something?
Yes. He has an established track record of respected, published material and a resume that includes positions at Princeton and Harvard. In the last 5-10 years or so he seems to have become infatuated with speculation that interstellar objects like Oumuamua and 3I/ATLAS are of artificial origin. Many of his recent claims seem to be unsubstantiated sensationalism that is raising the contempt of colleagues in the scientific community.
 
The guy that was on Bill Maher discussing aliens this past show was cool, because I think its the first mainstream/widely watched television show to cover aliens/UAPs seriously in a long form discussion...at least that I'm aware of.
 

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