Pick the Crop of New HOF Quarterbacks (1 Viewer)

[David Yudkin]

There have been a million and one threads on who makes the HOF and who doesn't. Today's topic: QUARTERBACKS.

There are currently 30 QB in the HOF. here is a breakdown of when they played. If a player played even a single year in that decade, he is included in that decade, so the same guy could be included in 3 decades. (For players that played more than one position, they are included only if they are listed as a QB as their primary position.)

1920-29: 2

1930-39: 5

1940-49: 10

1950-59: 12

1960-69: 12

1970-79: 12

1980-89: 10

1990-1999: 7

2000-Present: 2

Looking only at the 2000s, assuming that they induct the 10-12 QBs like in past decades, who will get the nod? Remember, anyone that played at all from 2000-2009 would be eligible, so the new draft class could be included.

Aikman and Moon were the two already inducted, so what other 8-10 players will get in from the 2000s?

I would guess most will have Favre, Peyton, and Brady on their list.

Other possibilities:

Testaverde

Bledsoe

Warner

McNabb

Collins

Brunell

Culpepper

McNair

Cunningham

Gannon

Roethlisberger

Brees

Rivers

Cutler

Green

Chandler

Garcia

Bulger

Palmer

Eli

Romo

Rodgers

Young

Given that we are currently in an area of prolific passing totals, one would expect that there would be at least equal to or more QBs inducted given the gaudy numbers currently getting racked up. But I'm having a hard time coming up with 10-12 QBs.

After Aikman, Moon, Manning, Brady, and Favre, what 7 other guys seem HOF worthy?

 

[JuniorNB]

I'll put the ones who I see as possibilities in the order of probability: (Discounting teh obvious three of Favre, Manning, Brady)

1. Warner and McNabb- Two guys who are in a position this year to seal teh deal. A ring by either of them gets them in. WArner's raw numbers and MVPs may get him in anyway. As discussed, McNabb either needs a ring or 4 or 5 years more of winning football and good stats.

2. Eli Manning- Already has a ring and is a rock solid QB. Barring injury, he'll get in. Still very young.

3. Ben Rothlisberger- The ring is a huge plus, but he plays in an offense that may not allow him to get the gaudy numbers over hois career. Like McNabb, he's racking up a lot of years as a 'winner'. Like Eli, still very young, but certainly heading in the right direction.

4. Phillip Rivers- Also way too young to realistically consider, but looks like he's going to be a huge stat compiler, plus has teh advantage of being on a mega-talented squad. Stats + wins+ HOF consoderation.

5. Drew Brees- Unless he can lead a team to contenetion, he may end up having to go the warren Moon route- Just compiling such great stats that it would be hard to deny him.

Note: Vince Young is most-likely to one-day work as a custodian at the Hall of Fame.

 

[jasvic]

I'll put the ones who I see as possibilities in the order of probability: (Discounting teh obvious three of Favre, Manning, Brady)

1. Warner and McNabb- Two guys who are in a position this year to seal teh deal. A ring by either of them gets them in. WArner's raw numbers and MVPs may get him in anyway. As discussed, McNabb either needs a ring or 4 or 5 years more of winning football and good stats.

2. Eli Manning- Already has a ring and is a rock solid QB. Barring injury, he'll get in. Still very young.

3. Ben Rothlisberger- The ring is a huge plus, but he plays in an offense that may not allow him to get the gaudy numbers over hois career. Like McNabb, he's racking up a lot of years as a 'winner'. Like Eli, still very young, but certainly heading in the right direction.

4. Phillip Rivers- Also way too young to realistically consider, but looks like he's going to be a huge stat compiler, plus has teh advantage of being on a mega-talented squad. Stats + wins+ HOF consoderation.

5. Drew Brees- Unless he can lead a team to contenetion, he may end up having to go the warren Moon route- Just compiling such great stats that it would be hard to deny him.

Note: Vince Young is most-likely to one-day work as a custodian at the Hall of Fame.

That's pretty much my list spot on. Except for Eli, still not sure I'm sold on him, would like to see how he continues coping without a stud wideout.

 

[PatrickT]

While there's no way to evaluate from a HOF perspective at this stage, if you're going to have Rodgers and especially Young on that list, it should at least include Ryan and Flacco.

Also, you may want to edit your OP, you keep drifting back and forth between WR and QB in the description.

 

[renesauz]

Given that we are currently in an area of prolific passing totals, one would expect that there would be at least equal to or more QBs inducted given the gaudy numbers currently getting racked up. But I'm having a hard time coming up with 10-12 QBs.After Aikman, Moon, Manning, Brady, and Favre, what 7 other guys seem HOF worthy?

Asking for 7 names may be unfair at this point, because under your criteria it's very likely that 3-4 of those names are among the youngest and least known on this list, or even QB's yet to be drafted! It's really not possible to do as you ask and feel good about the guesses.With that in mind, it's probably more fair to ask folks to pick 3 or 4 names that stand out on this list.Warner and McNabb stand out as the closest right now. Eli, Big Ben, and Brees are younger QB's who appear to be on the right career arch. That's five.Then throw in Matt Ryan, Rivers, Cutler, Rodgers, Romo, Flacco, and one or two more as yet undrafted QB's...among these 1-3 more viable candidates to make your 10-12 (including Favre, Peyton, and Brady as no-brainers) total.

 

[Chase Stuart]

2. Eli Manning- Already has a ring and is a rock solid QB. Barring injury, he'll get in. Still very young.

Eli has a very long way to go. Jim Plunkett has two rings and needs to buy a ticket like everyone else.

 

[JuniorNB]

2. Eli Manning- Already has a ring and is a rock solid QB. Barring injury, he'll get in. Still very young.

Eli has a very long way to go. Jim Plunkett has two rings and needs to buy a ticket like everyone else.

Eli was drated the same year as Rothlisberger and Rivers. He's just a baby. As with any QB on the list (other than McNabb and Warner), he would have to proceed with what he has shown at an early age and continue to improve. Considering how poised he plays, how injury-free he's been, and how he always seems to be a winner, he is definitely on the right path.Also, of course he 'has a very long way to go'. Isn't that implied when commenting on a 4th or 5th year QB? Isn't that what we're doing in this thread?

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Strong consideration:

Warner

Some consideration:

Cunningham - I feel like he at least changed the NFL and paved the way for dual threat QBs

No:

McNair

Testaverde

Bledsoe

Brunell

Culpepper

Gannon

Green

Collins - Is this Todd or Kerry?

Chandler

Garcia

Bulger

Needs more work:

McNabb

Brees - moved Brees here since he's older than the guys below. Probably doesn't get in without breaking either or both of Manning's TD record and Marino's yardage record and still needs to add some team success on top of that.

Way too early to put into the discussion:

Roethlisberger

Rivers

Cutler

Palmer

Eli

Romo

Rodgers

Young

 

[Tanner9919]

Warner is a lock, IMO..

McNabb won't get in, he's been hurt an awful lot, and generally doesn't have the stats..if you let McNabb in,then you must include Phil Simms, a two-time SB winner, 1 time SB MVP..

IMO, Simms >> McNabb

Harry Carson took forever to get in, and he was a perennial pro-bowl selection..

Art Monk took forever to get in,and he was WAY better than McNabb is/was..

 

[Chase Stuart]

2. Eli Manning- Already has a ring and is a rock solid QB. Barring injury, he'll get in. Still very young.

Eli has a very long way to go. Jim Plunkett has two rings and needs to buy a ticket like everyone else.

Eli was drated the same year as Rothlisberger and Rivers. He's just a baby. As with any QB on the list (other than McNabb and Warner), he would have to proceed with what he has shown at an early age and continue to improve. Considering how poised he plays, how injury-free he's been, and how he always seems to be a winner, he is definitely on the right path.Also, of course he 'has a very long way to go'. Isn't that implied when commenting on a 4th or 5th year QB? Isn't that what we're doing in this thread?

Saying "barring injury, he'll get in" is a pretty strong statement. Eli Manning, barring two or three more SB victories, isn't getting in unless he puts together some seasons like he's never had before, IMO.

 

[identikit]

I'll put the ones who I see as possibilities in the order of probability: (Discounting teh obvious three of Favre, Manning, Brady)

1. Warner and McNabb- Two guys who are in a position this year to seal teh deal. A ring by either of them gets them in. WArner's raw numbers and MVPs may get him in anyway. As discussed, McNabb either needs a ring or 4 or 5 years more of winning football and good stats.

2. Eli Manning- Already has a ring and is a rock solid QB. Barring injury, he'll get in. Still very young.

3. Ben Rothlisberger- The ring is a huge plus, but he plays in an offense that may not allow him to get the gaudy numbers over hois career. Like McNabb, he's racking up a lot of years as a 'winner'. Like Eli, still very young, but certainly heading in the right direction.

4. Phillip Rivers- Also way too young to realistically consider, but looks like he's going to be a huge stat compiler, plus has teh advantage of being on a mega-talented squad. Stats + wins+ HOF consoderation.

5. Drew Brees- Unless he can lead a team to contenetion, he may end up having to go the warren Moon route- Just compiling such great stats that it would be hard to deny him.

Note: Vince Young is most-likely to one-day work as a custodian at the Hall of Fame.

2006 NFC championship game down?

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I think the notion that once a QB gets a ring, his chances for inclusion increase that much more has some faults. Now if they are able to secure 2 SB's, I think that counts for alot more.

But the inclusion of Eli & Big Ben on this list of potentials, I guess they can up their level of play in the coming years. But if I'm basing this conversation on maintaining their level of play now - no way do I vote for Eli & Big Ben.

Big Ben - He's had one year where he threw for more than 18 TD's & 3500 yards (not in the same season). Considering some of the gaudy stats being put up by QB's nowadays where 4-5 4000 yard passers/year is the norm, this will most definitely work against him. The only HOF worthy stat of Big Ben's is YPA (7th all time at 7.9). But for his career, he's averaged but 26.45 pass attempts/game.

Eli - He also sticks out like a sore thmb to me. What he has working for him is playing in the NY market. But he's also another QB who has yet to eclipse 4000 yards in his career. 2008 was his first full season of throwing fewer than 17 INT's, but it was also the season in which he had the fewest amount of pass attempts. PLus, he just barely creeped above a 60% completion rate for the first time in his career.

As it relates to these two QB's, I simply don't see a HOF level of play from them at all at this juncture in their careers.

I know in the other thread, McNabb is getting picked apart. But at least you can point to:

1) A career 64% winning percentage as a starter

2) A 194:90 TD/INT ratio

3) At 32, he's at about 30,000 passing yards

4) 3000 plaus career rushing yards

5) 4 NFC Conference Championship Game appearance & 1 SB appearance.

Is McNabb of HOF to me? No. Not yet. But I suspect that he'll play another 4-5 years and his level of play has shown no decline. I do believe McNabb is one of the more underappreciated QB's of this era though.

Brees - Brees will be 30 next week. He hasn't had a season in the last 5 where he's thrown for fewer than 24 TD's. The last 3 years, he's averaged 4637 passing yards/year (the 2nd most prolific 3 year stretch in NFL history). To me, Brees is on track. When I watch Brees play, I think I'm watching an NFL QB.

Warner - I've had this discussion over the last week. I'm more swayed in his favor, but Warner is one where his career now resembles a more complete body of work. What I can't get by is that half his career he's been among the best QB's in NFL history. The other half, he's been Babe Laufenberg. If I was a no last week...I'm an undecided leaning toward no this week. But I'm trending upward.

Everyone else is either a firm no or way too early.

 

[Chase Stuart]

TDW hitting the nail on the head. Brees' huge '08 gives him a leg up. He's got a decent chance if he has a few more years of this. Very underrated QB who went to a team that was horrible and made them pretty good, pretty quickly.

 

[JuniorNB]

I'll put the ones who I see as possibilities in the order of probability: (Discounting teh obvious three of Favre, Manning, Brady)

1. Warner and McNabb- Two guys who are in a position this year to seal teh deal. A ring by either of them gets them in. WArner's raw numbers and MVPs may get him in anyway. As discussed, McNabb either needs a ring or 4 or 5 years more of winning football and good stats.

2. Eli Manning- Already has a ring and is a rock solid QB. Barring injury, he'll get in. Still very young.

3. Ben Rothlisberger- The ring is a huge plus, but he plays in an offense that may not allow him to get the gaudy numbers over hois career. Like McNabb, he's racking up a lot of years as a 'winner'. Like Eli, still very young, but certainly heading in the right direction.

4. Phillip Rivers- Also way too young to realistically consider, but looks like he's going to be a huge stat compiler, plus has teh advantage of being on a mega-talented squad. Stats + wins+ HOF consoderation.

5. Drew Brees- Unless he can lead a team to contenetion, he may end up having to go the warren Moon route- Just compiling such great stats that it would be hard to deny him.

Note: Vince Young is most-likely to one-day work as a custodian at the Hall of Fame.

2006 NFC championship game down?

If losing championship games is HOF criteria, they, may allow McNabb in before he even retires.

 

[David Yudkin]

While I don't think of Bledsoe as a HOFer, he at least has some redeeming qualities . . .

Top 10 in completions 9 times

Top 10 in passing yardage 7 times

Top 10 in passing TD 7 times

Top 10 in YPA 5 times

Top 10 in passer rating 3 times

5th all-time in completions

8th all-time in passing yardage

13th all-time in passing TD

14th all-time in passing yds/gm

Helped get NE to 2 Super Bowls (with Brady obvioulsy much more of a factor in the 2nd one)

Played on 6 times that made the playoffs

Clearly he had the knack for coming up small in big situations which could kill his chances right there and his playoff totals won't help either, but I wonder if when the dust clears that voters at some point might think that it's harder than it looks to get to nearly 45,000 passing yards.

And for those saying he's Vinny Testaverde redux, Blesdoe put up similar or better numbers in 40 fewer games. Again, I wouldn't vote for Bledsoe but I wonder if some people will.

 

[renesauz]

But the inclusion of Eli & Big Ben on this list of potentials, I guess they can up their level of play in the coming years. But if I'm basing this conversation on maintaining their level of play now - no way do I vote for Eli & Big Ben.

Big Ben - He's had one year where he threw for more than 18 TD's & 3500 yards (not in the same season). Considering some of the gaudy stats being put up by QB's nowadays where 4-5 4000 yard passers/year is the norm, this will most definitely work against him. The only HOF worthy stat of Big Ben's is YPA (7th all time at 7.9). But for his career, he's averaged but 26.45 pass attempts/game.

Eli - He also sticks out like a sore thmb to me. What he has working for him is playing in the NY market. But he's also another QB who has yet to eclipse 4000 yards in his career. 2008 was his first full season of throwing fewer than 17 INT's, but it was also the season in which he had the fewest amount of pass attempts. PLus, he just barely creeped above a 60% completion rate for the first time in his career.

As it relates to these two QB's, I simply don't see a HOF level of play from them at all at this juncture in their careers.

Fair enough, but it's easy to forget how young these two still are. Most QB's don't peak until year 4 or 5. Most HOF caliber QB's will maintain that peak for 5 or 6 years. Eli and Ben both have wonderful starts to their careers, and it's evidant that, at the very least, they are still on a path which could get there (as opposed to someone like Leinart, who has had trouble even becoming a starter)In the end, Warner is the only QB close to retirement (or recently retired) that's really close to HOF worthy (other then Favre). We may be over-looking this fact. By the time Warner comes up, we'll have endured a pretty significant QB drought in the HOF inductions.

5 years from now, we'll be seeing McNabb, Brady, and Peyton close to retirement.

Eli, Big Ben, Brees are still at least 8-9 years out, barring huge injury.

 

[dgreen]

After Aikman, Moon, Manning, Brady, and Favre, what 7 other guys seem HOF worthy?

I see no reason to name 7 and try to get to 12 with this group. To get to 10, I'd say Warner, McNabb, Brees, Roth, and either Matt Ryan or someone who has yet to enter the league or step into a starting role.Warner and McNabb would bring the 1990s count up to 9.

 

[Chase Stuart]

While I don't think of Bledsoe as a HOFer, he at least has some redeeming qualities . . .Top 10 in completions 9 timesTop 10 in passing yardage 7 timesTop 10 in passing TD 7 timesTop 10 in YPA 5 timesTop 10 in passer rating 3 times5th all-time in completions8th all-time in passing yardage13th all-time in passing TD14th all-time in passing yds/gmHelped get NE to 2 Super Bowls (with Brady obvioulsy much more of a factor in the 2nd one)Played on 6 times that made the playoffsClearly he had the knack for coming up small in big situations which could kill his chances right there and his playoff totals won't help either, but I wonder if when the dust clears that voters at some point might think that it's harder than it looks to get to nearly 45,000 passing yards.And for those saying he's Vinny Testaverde redux, Blesdoe put up similar or better numbers in 40 fewer games. Again, I wouldn't vote for Bledsoe but I wonder if some people will.

Bledsoe is an obvious compiler that wasn't very good for very long. Bledsoe ranks below Vinny on my career list, because Bledsoe never had any season like Testaverde did in '96 or '98. While you note that Vinny had more games, they've got the same number of career attempts. I think it's also a bit easier to write off Testaverde's bad early years in Tampa Bay, since they were so bad even Steve Young looked terrible there. It's easy to look at a year like '96 for Bledsoe and think wow, what a year. 4,000 yards, 27 TD, 15 INT. But dig a little deeper. Bledsoe led the league in attempts. Mark Brunell and Testaverde passed for more yards, despite significantly fewer throws. Brett Favre and Testaverde passed for more TD. Yards per pass attempt? Bledsoe wasn't in the top ten that year. Touchdowns per pass attempt? Also not top ten.Bledsoe threw a lot of passes. That's his greatest claim to fame. He ranked in the top three in pass attempts six times, finishing first in '94-'95'-96. But he was never great. His '96 season was good, but it still wasn't as good as Favre, Testaverde, Brunell, Young, Marino or Elway in '96. And that's Bledsoe's problem. Look at his career numbers, and they're impressive. But he did it without any impressive season. Testaverde's in a very similar boat, and he's an odd case because he was the opposite of Bledsoe -- he started his career terribly and then turned it around. But show me any time when Bledsoe ever looked on the same planet as Testaverde in '98, and he wasn't even as good as Testaverde in '96 and probably not as good as Vinny in '95.Three times in his career he ranked in the top ten in a season in QB Rating, and never in the top five. He never averaged more than 5.6 adjusted net yards per pass attempt in any season in his career. He's far from HOF material in my book. As a guy who likes to use stats to rank QBs, Bledsoe's infuriating because people use him as an example of why you can't use stats, when really, he's an example of why people just use the wrong stats.

 

[David Yudkin]

After Aikman, Moon, Manning, Brady, and Favre, what 7 other guys seem HOF worthy?

I see no reason to name 7 and try to get to 12 with this group. To get to 10, I'd say Warner, McNabb, Brees, Roth, and either Matt Ryan or someone who has yet to enter the league or step into a starting role.Warner and McNabb would bring the 1990s count up to 9.

My point in trying to get to 7 guys beyond the first 5 was that the 1970s had 12 QBs inducted in what was an otherwise dismal timeframe for QBs.One would think (rightly or wrongly) that in an era of prolific passing numbers that there would be at least equal if not more guys inducted from the best ever production period than one that was dramatically weaker.For example, the 1973 Bills as a team had 997 passing yards and 4 passing TD. Matt Cassel on his own had 815 yards and 6 TD in Weeks 11 and 12 combined.Given the era we are in, do people think we will see more, fewer, or the same number of HOF QBs compared to other decades?

 

[Mr. Mojo]

If I get a vote, it's to remove Aikman from the Hall as he was the most overrated QB in history. Yeah he came up big in the playoffs/Super Bowl. But when he didn't have a dynasty team around him, he was as mediocre as Kerry Collins. A great QB makes the most of any team he's on, not just the powerhouse ones.

 

[Doug B]

TDW hitting the nail on the head. Brees' huge '08 gives him a leg up. He's got a decent chance if he has a few more years of this. Very underrated QB who went to a team that was horrible and made them pretty good, pretty quickly.

Thinking of a past QB who was seems to me to be a good comparison to Brees: Sonny JurgensenJurgensen earned a ring as a backup to Norm Van Brocklin on the 1960 Eagles. He never played in a postseason game at all until 1974, his final season. However, he is now thought of as a no-brainer HOF-caliber player -- few remember that it took him four years of voting to get inducted.

Jurgensen's bio in the link above is worth reading. It makes me think that Brees' chances are pretty good if he stays on track.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Am I the only one that thinks Randall Cunningham should get some consideration? Am I remembering him incorrectly? I thought he was largely responsible for paving the way for all the dual threat QBs - i.e. he changed the way the game was played.

 

[David Yudkin]

While I don't think of Bledsoe as a HOFer, he at least has some redeeming qualities . . .Top 10 in completions 9 timesTop 10 in passing yardage 7 timesTop 10 in passing TD 7 timesTop 10 in YPA 5 timesTop 10 in passer rating 3 times5th all-time in completions8th all-time in passing yardage13th all-time in passing TD14th all-time in passing yds/gmHelped get NE to 2 Super Bowls (with Brady obvioulsy much more of a factor in the 2nd one)Played on 6 times that made the playoffsClearly he had the knack for coming up small in big situations which could kill his chances right there and his playoff totals won't help either, but I wonder if when the dust clears that voters at some point might think that it's harder than it looks to get to nearly 45,000 passing yards.And for those saying he's Vinny Testaverde redux, Blesdoe put up similar or better numbers in 40 fewer games. Again, I wouldn't vote for Bledsoe but I wonder if some people will.

Bledsoe is an obvious compiler that wasn't very good for very long. Bledsoe ranks below Vinny on my career list, because Bledsoe never had any season like Testaverde did in '96 or '98. While you note that Vinny had more games, they've got the same number of career attempts. I think it's also a bit easier to write off Testaverde's bad early years in Tampa Bay, since they were so bad even Steve Young looked terrible there. It's easy to look at a year like '96 for Bledsoe and think wow, what a year. 4,000 yards, 27 TD, 15 INT. But dig a little deeper. Bledsoe led the league in attempts. Mark Brunell and Testaverde passed for more yards, despite significantly fewer throws. Brett Favre and Testaverde passed for more TD. Yards per pass attempt? Bledsoe wasn't in the top ten that year. Touchdowns per pass attempt? Also not top ten.Bledsoe threw a lot of passes. That's his greatest claim to fame. He ranked in the top three in pass attempts six times, finishing first in '94-'95'-96. But he was never great. His '96 season was good, but it still wasn't as good as Favre, Testaverde, Brunell, Young, Marino or Elway in '96. And that's Bledsoe's problem. Look at his career numbers, and they're impressive. But he did it without any impressive season. Testaverde's in a very similar boat, and he's an odd case because he was the opposite of Bledsoe -- he started his career terribly and then turned it around. But show me any time when Bledsoe ever looked on the same planet as Testaverde in '98, and he wasn't even as good as Testaverde in '96 and probably not as good as Vinny in '95.Three times in his career he ranked in the top ten in a season in QB Rating, and never in the top five. He never averaged more than 5.6 adjusted net yards per pass attempt in any season in his career. He's far from HOF material in my book. As a guy who likes to use stats to rank QBs, Bledsoe's infuriating because people use him as an example of why you can't use stats, when really, he's an example of why people just use the wrong stats.

I agree with you on Bledsoe on a whole, but I wonder if you are the atypical type compared to the actual voters. I'm not sure they would leave no stone unturned as you would to evaluate these guys.I was more trying to figure out who really have legit HOF chances out of the guys from effectively almost a full decade (and obviously from now heading forward).While not a full apples to apples comparison, Brees' numbers in New Orleans are also somewhat inflated by his intense number of passing attempts. Over the past 2 seasons, Brees has 207 more attempts than any other QB. That certainly can't h urt his numbers. His other numbers have been solid, but he still benefits from a very vertical style offensive scheme.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

currently playing that should be locks:

Peyton

Brady

Favre

Currently playing that should get in but are not first ballot type locks:

Warner

McNabb

Currently younger players that have a good shot:

Rivers

Brees

Big Ben

Matt Ryan* (has all the tools and has had a heck of a start)

Now way in heck Eli is in line. Could be if he continues to win superbowls though based on market and pedigree

 

[David Yudkin]

If I get a vote, it's to remove Aikman from the Hall as he was the most overrated QB in history. Yeah he came up big in the playoffs/Super Bowl. But when he didn't have a dynasty team around him, he was as mediocre as Kerry Collins. A great QB makes the most of any team he's on, not just the powerhouse ones.

Simply put, QBs of a powerhouse team/perceived dynasty/multiple (beyond 2) SB winning team will get in, end of story. (Rightly or wrongly.)

 

[TheDirtyWord]

But the inclusion of Eli & Big Ben on this list of potentials, I guess they can up their level of play in the coming years. But if I'm basing this conversation on maintaining their level of play now - no way do I vote for Eli & Big Ben.

Big Ben - He's had one year where he threw for more than 18 TD's & 3500 yards (not in the same season). Considering some of the gaudy stats being put up by QB's nowadays where 4-5 4000 yard passers/year is the norm, this will most definitely work against him. The only HOF worthy stat of Big Ben's is YPA (7th all time at 7.9). But for his career, he's averaged but 26.45 pass attempts/game.

Eli - He also sticks out like a sore thmb to me. What he has working for him is playing in the NY market. But he's also another QB who has yet to eclipse 4000 yards in his career. 2008 was his first full season of throwing fewer than 17 INT's, but it was also the season in which he had the fewest amount of pass attempts. PLus, he just barely creeped above a 60% completion rate for the first time in his career.

As it relates to these two QB's, I simply don't see a HOF level of play from them at all at this juncture in their careers.

Fair enough, but it's easy to forget how young these two still are. Most QB's don't peak until year 4 or 5. Most HOF caliber QB's will maintain that peak for 5 or 6 years. Eli and Ben both have wonderful starts to their careers, and it's evidant that, at the very least, they are still on a path which could get there (as opposed to someone like Leinart, who has had trouble even becoming a starter)In the end, Warner is the only QB close to retirement (or recently retired) that's really close to HOF worthy (other then Favre). We may be over-looking this fact. By the time Warner comes up, we'll have endured a pretty significant QB drought in the HOF inductions.

5 years from now, we'll be seeing McNabb, Brady, and Peyton close to retirement.

Eli, Big Ben, Brees are still at least 8-9 years out, barring huge injury.

You may be able to project their careers out, but I think you're off about the notion of most QB's don't peak until year 4 or 5. That might be true, but we're talking about HOF QB's. Those guys show relatively quickly that they have a HOF pedigree.Again, as it relates to Eli & Big Ben, I don't get the sense I'm watching anything close to a HOF'er when I watch them. The only thing they have on their HOF resumes to me at this point is a ring. Their level of play though is not HOF worthy.

 

[David Yudkin]

Again, as it relates to Eli & Big Ben, I don't get the sense I'm watching anything close to a HOF'er when I watch them. The only thing they have on their HOF resumes to me at this point is a ring. Their level of play though is not HOF worthy.

As mentioned above, it almost doesn't matter what your numbers are if you lead your team to 3 SB titles. So if either Eli or Big Ben were to get a second ring this year. they would have two thirds of the trifecta already at a very young age.

 

[renesauz]

But the inclusion of Eli & Big Ben on this list of potentials, I guess they can up their level of play in the coming years. But if I'm basing this conversation on maintaining their level of play now - no way do I vote for Eli & Big Ben.

Big Ben - He's had one year where he threw for more than 18 TD's & 3500 yards (not in the same season). Considering some of the gaudy stats being put up by QB's nowadays where 4-5 4000 yard passers/year is the norm, this will most definitely work against him. The only HOF worthy stat of Big Ben's is YPA (7th all time at 7.9). But for his career, he's averaged but 26.45 pass attempts/game.

Eli - He also sticks out like a sore thmb to me. What he has working for him is playing in the NY market. But he's also another QB who has yet to eclipse 4000 yards in his career. 2008 was his first full season of throwing fewer than 17 INT's, but it was also the season in which he had the fewest amount of pass attempts. PLus, he just barely creeped above a 60% completion rate for the first time in his career.

As it relates to these two QB's, I simply don't see a HOF level of play from them at all at this juncture in their careers.

Fair enough, but it's easy to forget how young these two still are. Most QB's don't peak until year 4 or 5. Most HOF caliber QB's will maintain that peak for 5 or 6 years. Eli and Ben both have wonderful starts to their careers, and it's evidant that, at the very least, they are still on a path which could get there (as opposed to someone like Leinart, who has had trouble even becoming a starter)In the end, Warner is the only QB close to retirement (or recently retired) that's really close to HOF worthy (other then Favre). We may be over-looking this fact. By the time Warner comes up, we'll have endured a pretty significant QB drought in the HOF inductions.

5 years from now, we'll be seeing McNabb, Brady, and Peyton close to retirement.

Eli, Big Ben, Brees are still at least 8-9 years out, barring huge injury.

You may be able to project their careers out, but I think you're off about the notion of most QB's don't peak until year 4 or 5. That might be true, but we're talking about HOF QB's. Those guys show relatively quickly that they have a HOF pedigree.Again, as it relates to Eli & Big Ben, I don't get the sense I'm watching anything close to a HOF'er when I watch them. The only thing they have on their HOF resumes to me at this point is a ring. Their level of play though is not HOF worthy.

Fair enough, but I think I may have been going forward under a slightly different premise then you. Also, I think this is easier in hindsight. Both Ben and Eli have shown pro-bowl caliber play at a young age, which is the first step. The OP was looking for 10-12 names, and I don't see what other names to throw in there with a better chance then Eli and Ben. I tend to agree that I don't feel like I'm watching a HOF Qb when watching these two...but at the same time at their age, and with their early success...it seems they have a far better chance then any others in their age-timeframe. While they may not have emphatically made a case for the HOF...they certainly have done nothing to discredit any case that might be made later. IE: They are comfortably ahead of the pack in their age bracket at this point.

 

[JuniorNB]

If I get a vote, it's to remove Aikman from the Hall as he was the most overrated QB in history. Yeah he came up big in the playoffs/Super Bowl. But when he didn't have a dynasty team around him, he was as mediocre as Kerry Collins. A great QB makes the most of any team he's on, not just the powerhouse ones.

Obviously, a QBs circumstances weigh very heavily on their chances at success. Like I stated earlier, Kurt Warner has not only had the luxury of playing with guys like Tory Holt, Isaac Bruce, Larry Fitzgerald, and Anquan Boldin, but he's had 90% of his success in a dome with the Rams and in sunny, warm, dry Arizona. All you need to do is look at his 'away' stats and his stats when he was a NY Giant to see the effect that has on his winning percentage and stats. If he had started in New York and then caught on in, say, Green Bay, he might not have even played five years.Aikman had the luxury of playing on great teams, but he was very good in the clutch and had awesome accuracy. Somehow, I don't think that Jim Everett would have won all those Super Bowls with those same Dallas teams.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Again, as it relates to Eli & Big Ben, I don't get the sense I'm watching anything close to a HOF'er when I watch them. The only thing they have on their HOF resumes to me at this point is a ring. Their level of play though is not HOF worthy.

As mentioned above, it almost doesn't matter what your numbers are if you lead your team to 3 SB titles. So if either Eli or Big Ben were to get a second ring this year. they would have two thirds of the trifecta already at a very young age.

This is true...one SB can happen to the Brad Johnson's and Trent Dilfer's of the NFL. 2 SB's you have to sit up and take notice. 3 SB's and you're in.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

On another note...it's amazing how fast Carson Palmer's stock has nose dived. Don't think he's been mentioned yet...

 

[David Yudkin]

On another note...it's amazing how fast Carson Palmer's stock has nose dived. Don't think he's been mentioned yet...

I mentioned him in the OP, but since you brought him up . . .Palmer ranks 11th in passing yards and 8th in passing TDs for QBs in their first 5 seasons. And he didn't play at all in his rookie season.I think the fact that he has languished playing for the Bengals and this year was hurt both hurt his cause, but if he either leaves town or if Cincy surrounds him with a full team his stock would go back up.

 

[renesauz]

On another note...it's amazing how fast Carson Palmer's stock has nose dived. Don't think he's been mentioned yet...

How could we even consider him a possibility when there's a very good chance his career is already over?

 

[Doug B]

You may be able to project their careers out, but I think you're off about the notion of most QB's don't peak until year 4 or 5. That might be true, but we're talking about HOF QB's. Those guys show relatively quickly that they have a HOF pedigree.

Jurgensen hardly saw the field until his fifth year in the NFL while backing up another HOFer (Norm Van Brocklin).I don't think Steve Young looked much like an HOF QB in Tampa. Terry Bradshaw wasn't great out of the box, either.

 

[DawnBTVS]

My "10"

- Peyton Manning

- Tom Brady

- Brett Favre

- Kurt Warner: Already has 1 SB Ring. Has been very prolific despite coming into the NFL at 27 years old(!) and not even starting until he's 28! If he plays two more years, he has an outside chance at finishing around 230-240 TDs for his career.

- Donovan McNabb: Made it to 4 NFC Title games and lost 1 SB. Has over 3,000 yards rushing in his career and should have a shot at 35,000 passing yards and 220-230 TD total. Has a chance at a SB.

- Eli Manning: Very similar to Roethlisberger. Currently at 98 TD and just under 15,000 yards passing. Has a chance at getting a 2nd SB ring already in his young career.

- Drew Brees: Will be a gaudy stat compiler as he already has 26,000 passing yards and 168 TD. Biggest question is how he does in the playoffs.

- Ben Roethlisberger: Already has over 100 TDs and is on the verge of 15,000 yards next year. Has a chance at getting a 2nd SB ring already in his young career.

- Tony Romo: Could wind up on a Kurt Warner type path if he can win at least 1 SB. Didn't start until age 26 and in 3 years he's over 10,000 yards and should eclipse 100 TD next year.

- Carson Palmer: Really needs a strong 2nd half to his career. Over 15,000 yards and 100 TD in essentially 4 years of work. It'll be interesting to compare him to Tony Romo (Palmer started at age 25).

Something else I just noticed is the relatively "late" starting ages of some of these QBs meaning that while they play in a prolific era, they also don't have as long to play in it.

- David Garrard: Age 29 (or 28 if you want to start at 2006)

- Tony Romo: Age 26

- Kurt Warner: Age 28

- Aaron Rodgers: Age 25

- Carson Palmer: Age 25

 

[David Yudkin]

Am I the only one that thinks Randall Cunningham should get some consideration? Am I remembering him incorrectly? I thought he was largely responsible for paving the way for all the dual threat QBs - i.e. he changed the way the game was played.

Cunningham is an interesting case in that he only started 10 or more games in 7 seasons out of his 16 year career. So right out of the box you have to wonder why a guy had 9 years where he was either a backup or injured.On the plus side, he did have an 82-51-1 record as a starter. He also had 2 seasons with 30+ TD (3 others with 20+) and 4 years with 2400+ yards passing. Also led all QBs in rushing 6 times.Top 10 in completions 5 times, passing yds 5 times, passing yds/gm 4 times, passing TD 6 times, passer rating 3 times. 4 Pro Bolws and First team ALl Pro once. Ranks Top 25 to Top 35 in most major passing cateogires.Not sure why he's basically been ignored as a HOF candidate short of he didn't play enough over such a long time frame. No ring likely hurts him.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Cunningham rated as the 42nd best QB ever when I looked at things last summer. He's a solid enough QB but he would clearly be in the lower third of HOF QBs and I don't think many are clamoring for his induction.

McNair is one name that hasn't been mentioned much here. Gannon and Green are guys with very strong peak production but not longevity. That's kind of been the curse of a lot of recent QBs.

 

[David Yudkin]

Cunningham rated as the 42nd best QB ever when I looked at things last summer. He's a solid enough QB but he would clearly be in the lower third of HOF QBs and I don't think many are clamoring for his induction. McNair is one name that hasn't been mentioned much here. Gannon and Green are guys with very strong peak production but not longevity. That's kind of been the curse of a lot of recent QBs.

As mentioned in this thread or one of the others, with guys either sitting early, switching teams to get a chance, or otherwise losing out to younger players, do you see a trend that there are fewer and fewer guys that will have the longevity needed for HOF consideration?In the last decade or so, there are some guys (Favre, Collins, Bledsoe, Testaverde) that played seemingly forever, but I wonder if those types of careers will become a thing of the past. Manning should be another to be both prolific and play for a long time, but there does seem to be a gap in other guys that will have played for 10-12 years or more as a consistent starter.

 

[Uber]

Eli Manning?

 

[David Yudkin]

Eli Manning?

If the Giants win another title this year, that would give him two rings. Three rings is pretty much an automatic even if you were Inspector Clouseau at QB.

 

[renesauz]

Eli Manning?

It isn't just the ring he already has. The supposition (right or wrong) is that 9-12 QB's from every decade make it. The average HOF QB has a career in the 12-13 year area, so it's easily deduced that there are approximately 8-10 HOF QB's playing at any given point in time.Can you honestly name 9 current QB's with a better shot at the HOF then Eli?

Obviously, he's far too young and with nowhere near enough credentials to make it right now. This is a purely intellectual, educated guess type thing. If you're uncomfortable with the discussion, or consider it worthless, just move on.

 

[craxie]

let's compare Rivers' career average vs Bledsoe's best year (any year)

Rivers / Bledsoe

cmp%: 62.3 / 61.5 (2002)

td%: 5.5 / 5.4 (1997)

int%: 2.5 / 2.4 (1996, 2000)

Y/A: 7.5 / 7.6 (1998)

Rate: 92.9 / 87.7 (1997)

ANY/A: 6.2 / 5.6 (1998)

so if you cherry pick Bledsoe's career bests from across 4 different years, he still isn't as good as Rivers' career average

doesn't look like HOF material to me

(the same thing happens with earlier quarterbacks, but they played in a different era. Bledsoe played in the modern era and thus has no excuse)

 

[Chase Stuart]

Eli Manning?

If the Giants win another title this year, that would give him two rings. Three rings is pretty much an automatic even if you were Inspector Clouseau at QB.

I know it's popular to say this, but I don't think it's true. There's exactly one QB in the HOF with three rings, and he was a much more accurate QB than Eli Manning. Jim Plunkett had two rings and I don't think he was very close to induction. Simms had two rings as a technical matter, and he's always been on the outside looking in. Great QBs usually win rings, so it makes sense that winning lots of rings means you're great. But if you're lucky or play on a great team or have an awesome coach and a great defense, that doesn't make you a HOF QB. If Eli wins another ring this year, I still won't be very impresed with him (at least if he does it how you might expect).

We're not exactly dealing with a lot of data points here.

 

[Chase Stuart]

let's compare Rivers' career average vs Bledsoe's best year (any year)

Rivers / Bledsoe

cmp%: 62.3 / 61.5 (2002)

td%: 5.5 / 5.4 (1997)

int%: 2.5 / 2.4 (1996, 2000)

Y/A: 7.5 / 7.6 (1998)

Rate: 92.9 / 87.7 (1997)

ANY/A: 6.2 / 5.6 (1998)

so if you cherry pick Bledsoe's career bests from across 4 different years, he still isn't as good as Rivers' career average

doesn't look like HOF material to me

(the same thing happens with earlier quarterbacks, but they played in a different era. Bledsoe played in the modern era and thus has no excuse)

No one has been a bigger hater of Bledsoe than me, but Bledsoe didn't play in the same era as Rivers. Things move pretty quickly in the NFL. The late '90s was noticeably, even if not significantly, different than now for QBs.

 

[dgreen]

There's exactly one QB in the HOF with three rings...

Um, say what? I mean, there aren't a plethora, but there's more than one. Bradshaw, Montana, and Aikman.

 

[Captain Spaulding]

Brady, Peyton and Favre are a lock.

Warner I think should get in with Superbowl win (2 trips to the dance total) and NFL MVP award to boot.

McNabb should get in for a long/very strong QB career...alot of passing success in most years with pretty sub-par WR corp to work with.

McNair I think should get in as well for same reasons as McNabb, but he did a little more with legs and also had a greater knack for "winning" and making plays when things are on the line.

No one else playing is worthy of discussion yet.

 

[Pots]

If I get a vote, it's to remove Aikman from the Hall as he was the most overrated QB in history. Yeah he came up big in the playoffs/Super Bowl. But when he didn't have a dynasty team around him, he was as mediocre as Kerry Collins. A great QB makes the most of any team he's on, not just the powerhouse ones.

You've secured your status as never getting a vote.For anything.

 

[AB in DC]

If you want to get to 10 or 12 QBs from this decade, there should be two or three QBs from draft classes 2007 through 2009.

In other words, you have to include Matt Ryan in this list.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Something else I just noticed is the relatively "late" starting ages of some of these QBs meaning that while they play in a prolific era, they also don't have as long to play in it.- David Garrard: Age 29 (or 28 if you want to start at 2006)- Tony Romo: Age 26- Kurt Warner: Age 28- Aaron Rodgers: Age 25- Carson Palmer: Age 25

Rodgers turned 25 last month, oh no. Also he's injury prone.

 

[Thunderlips]

Based on feel without looking at the numbers...

Favre, Brady and Manning are locks.

Warner and McNabb are two very good QB's who were hurt a little too much to put them in the HoF.

Rivers, Rothelsberger and E Manning are all on pace to be in. Could they go down as the most successful QB class of all-time?

Everyone else just doesn't feel right in the HoF.