Comparing the QB class of 2004
By Aaron Schatz
Football Outsiders
Because Eli Manning, Philip Rivers, and Ben Roethlisberger were chosen together at the top of the 2004 draft, they will always be compared to each other. With all three leading their teams to the playoffs and taking the field this weekend, we wanted to look at their career paths -- by looking at the most similar quarterbacks in recent NFL history.
To do that, we're using similarity scores, an idea first introduced by Bill James to compare baseball players to other baseball players from the past. They aren't a perfect measurement by any means -- because similarity scores compare standard statistics like yards and touchdowns, they are subject to all kinds of biases from strength of schedule to the quality of each player's offensive line. Nevertheless, they're fun to play with and they tell you a little bit about whether a player is good, bad, or just unique. You can find the equations for Football Outsiders similarity scores here. The most recent season is listed, but comparisons are based on three-year career spans. Of course, since there are only so many successful quarterbacks around age 27, many of the same players show up as similar for more than one player.
Note that we only compare players since 1978, the year passing rules were liberalized, and the strike years of 1982 and 1987 are pro-rated to 16 games.
Eli Manning
Player Age/Exp. Comp. Pct. PaYd PaTD INT Yds/Att. 3rd Yr. Sim Avg. Sim
Eli Manning
NYG (2008) 27/5 60.3% 3238 21 10 6.76 -- --
Jim Zorn
SEA (1980) 27/5 56.6% 3346 17 20 6.86 818 804
Aaron Brooks
NO (2003) 27/5 59.1% 3546 24 8 6.85 845 804
Tom Brady
NE (2004) 27/5 60.8% 3692 28 14 7.79 812 804
Jim Kelly
BUF (1988) 28/5 59.5% 3380 15 17 7.48 823 802
Ken O'Brien
NYJ (1987) 27/5 59.5% 3595 17 11 6.86 869 788
Tommy Kramer
MIN (1982) 27/6 57.1% 3621 27 21 6.61 738 762
Tony Eason
NE (1986) 27/4 61.6% 3328 19 10 7.43 852 756
Jim Everett
LARM (1991) 28/6 56.5% 3438 11 20 7.02 782 749
If you forget for a moment that Jim Zorn is now head coach of the Redskins, you might think it is strange that a big-name first overall pick comes out most similar to an undrafted kid from Cal-Poly Pomona. The good news for Manning is that they were most similar in their third and fourth seasons, not their fifth. Manning in 2008 took the big step forward in accuracy that Zorn didn't take until his sixth season in 1981.
As for the rest of this group, I don't know if Giants fans would be more scared by the presence of Aaron Brooks or excited by the presence of Tom Brady. Brooks has remarkably similar numbers to Manning and would rank first if not for his rushing totals. Like Manning, he really improved his accuracy in his fifth season, with his completion rate going from 54 percent to 59 percent and his interceptions dropping from 15 to 8. Unfortunately, this was a one-year fluke. Giants fans hope the same isn't true about Manning. Meanwhile, don't get too excited by seeing Tom Brady's name on this list. The overall shape of Brady's numbers are similar to those of Manning's, but he was better in every category, particularly interceptions.
Philip Rivers
Player Age/Exp. Comp. Pct. PaYd PaTD INT Yds/Att. 3rd Yr. Sim Avg. Sim
Philip Rivers
SD (2008) 27/5 65.3% 4009 34 11 8.39 -- --
Tom Brady
NE (2005) 28/6 63.0% 4110 26 14 7.75 826 818
Drew Brees
NO (2006) 27/6 64.3% 4418 26 11 7.97 817 809
Carson Palmer
CIN (2006) 27/4 62.3% 4035 28 13 7.76 852 772
Brett Favre
GB (1995) 26/5 63.0% 4413 38 13 7.74 771 756
Joe Montana
SF (1983) 27/5 64.5% 3910 26 12 7.59 832 753
Ken O'Brien
NYJ (1987) 27/5 59.5% 3595 17 11 6.86 699 750
Jim Kelly
BUF (1988) 28/5 59.5% 3380 15 17 7.48 654 727
Peyton Manning
IND (2003) 27/6 67.0% 4267 29 10 7.54 813 726
Rivers had a spectacular season in 2008, and thus the players with the most similar careers are also spectacular. (You'll notice it is tough to find other players with more than eight yards per attempt.) The player on this list coming off the worst season was Jim Kelly, and he's in the Hall of Fame -- plus his good 1986 and 1987 are a lot more similar to Rivers than his mediocre 1988. Looking at this list, it is tough to see Rivers taking a downturn in 2009, as long as he can stay away from Kimo Von Oelhoffen.
Ben Roethlisberger
Player Age/Exp. Comp. Pct. PaYd PaTD INT Yds/Att. 3rd Yr. Sim Avg. Sim
Ben Roethlisberger
PIT (2008) 26/5 59.9% 3301 17 15 7.04 -- --
Ken O'Brien
NYJ (1987) 27/5 59.5% 3595 17 11 6.86 873 803
Jim Kelly
BUF (1988) 28/5 59.5% 3380 15 17 7.48 895 802
Troy Aikman
DAL (1992) 26/4 63.8% 3445 23 14 7.28 863 769
Jim Zorn
SEA (1980) 27/5 56.6% 3346 17 20 6.86 864 767
Matt Hasselbeck
SEA (2004) 29/6 58.9% 3382 22 15 7.14 850 751
Tom Brady
NE (2003) 26/4 60.0% 3620 23 12 6.86 858 751
Brian Griese
DEN (2001) 26/4 61.0% 2827 23 19 6.27 782 750
Neil Lomax
STL (1985) 26/5 56.3% 3214 18 12 6.82 895 749
Wow, Big Ben sure has taken a roller-coaster ride over the past five seasons, hasn't he? 2006 was a big drop from his first two seasons, but he had his best year in 2007, then fell back to earth again this season. As a result, most of the players who are similar over a three-year period are mostly similar in years one and three of that period. The good news is that most of these players were more accurate the following season, with Ken O'Brien a big exception -- he fell to a 56 percent completion rate in 1988 before rebounding to 60 percent in 1989.
O'Brien shows up on the similarity lists for all three quarterbacks but it's actually a bit stunning how similar he is to Roethlisberger. Both players had stats that bounced all over the place from season to season. Both players were first-round picks from smaller schools (O'Brien went to Division II UC Davis, Roethlisberger to D1-A midmajor Miami of Ohio) and were primarily known for their arm strength. Both players took a ton of sacks -- O'Brien was sacked roughly 50 times per year, Roethlisberger 46. The major difference between them might be their teammates -- unlike Roethlisberger, O'Brien couldn't depend on a top defense that would help win games year after year.
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