Pin the Team on the QB! (1 Viewer)

[Sebowski]

I'm trying to make some sense on the QB situation in this league. Seems like one of the biggest years in flux that I can remember. Some teams obviously need a QB and some others wouldn't be a shock to go a different route. We have a good rookie class coming n and one hig target free agent. A couple other may see their release or trade. Let's try to figure this #### out. 

Some of these are speculation. Feel free to put them back on their current team (like Manning).

Teams that may go a different direction at QB:

Browns

Jets

Dolphins

Broncos

Redskins

Giants

Bengals

Cardinals

Ravens

Bengals

Bills

Jaguars

Chiefs

Vikings (as in they can't keep all 3 of how they have. They all want to start)

Starting caliber QBs that will be available if the above teams all go a different direction:

Sam Darnold

Josh Rosen

Josh Allen

Baker Mayfeild

Kirk Cousins

ShEli Manning

Andy Dalton

Ryan Tannehill

Tayrod Taylor

Blake Bortles 

Alex Smith

Case Keenum

Teddy Bridgewater

Sam Bradford

Ok. I didn't expect these number to match up so well. That is 13 teams and 14 QBs with Vikings obviously retaining at least one of the three I listed. So it looks like there are QBs to go around. This doesn't include Mike Glennon or Jacoby Brissett who may both want to go somewhere to compete. 

So who you got going where? 

Relevant question: Will the Chiefs and Vikings play hardball and try to trade, or will they grant releases? 

 

[Sebowski]

Browns - Rookie. Let's call it Darnold to piss off SoulFly

Jets - Rookie. Let's call it Mayfield. 

Broncos - Rookie. Let's call it Allen

Dolphins - Tricky. I think they take a rookie if a top 4 falls to them or give Tannehill one more shot if no one falls. If one is falling maybe they get antsy and trade up a couple spots. I don't know where else to put the last rookie so I'll give them the last rookie, Rosen in this exercise. Rookie can compete with Tannehill. Ok, so more realistically this is Darnold and Rosen goes to the Browns. Whatever. Point is: Dolphins take a top 4 rookie. 

Redskins - Cousins is gone, imo. For better or worse I think they don't hate McCoy enough to over pay for a trade up or trade for a vet. I think they sign whoever shakes loose from the Vikings or Alex Smith. I can also see Gruden wanting Dalton if the Bengals turn the page there. New regime coming in. McCarron there. I think there is a decent chance Dalton is available. For this exercise I'll go with Sam Bradford. Snyder has loved this dude since his rookie draft. Vikings will let him go. 

Giants - I would love to hear some Panthers fans chime in on the new GM in New Jersey. Will he try to do a quick reset and go for another ring with Manning? Clean sweep? I'm going with them drafting Barkley and sticking with Manning. 

Bengals - I know I just said Dalton could be a goner, but more likely for me is they draft a 2nd tier rookie and give Dalton another year. 

Cardinals - Palmer should retire. He just should. And if he doesn't the Cardinals should move on anyway. They aren't drafting high enough for a top rookie so they will be in play for Cousins and the rest of the FAs. I'll call this one Alex Smith

Ravens - I keep hearing the Flacco contract is too tough to get out of. That sucks for the Ravens. They should move on, but I guess they don't? Flacco stays here. 

Bills - This upcoming playoff game will be huge. For them to break this 18 year drought while benching Tayrod is pretty crazy. I'm going to take a risk here and say they let Tayrod go and sign the guy that beats him in the playoffs: Blake Bortles 

Jaguars - Jaguars have shown they are not afraid to spend big cash on FAs. They will break the bank for Kirk Cousins.

Chiefs - This obviously depends on how the playoff run goes. Everyone is assuming they will lose and then move on from Smith to Mahomes. That is why they drafted him. It would be crazy to see the Chiefs win the Super Bowl. Then what? They can't switch QBs after winning a Super Bowl. But I'm with the masses. They lose in the playoffs and Mahomes starts next year. 

Vikings - Pretty similar to the Chiefs situation. The playoff run will determine everything. If I'm a Vikings fan I would want them to hand the keys to Keenum. What more could you ask from a QB than what Keenum has done this year? If Teddy wants to stick around to compete, fine. Bradford walks. 

 

[Biabreakable]

Relevant question: Will the Chiefs and Vikings play hardball and try to trade, or will they grant releases? 

There are a couple of topics about this already in progress.

I do like the neatness of your lists and think the topic could be better organized in this way.

In regards to KC and MIN.

Alex Smith is under contract for 2018. So they can keep him as their starter and give Mahomes another season to develop, or they could trade Smith to another team and move on with Mahomes when they do.

None of the 3 Vikings QBs are under contract at this time, and none have been talked to about an extension. Kyle Sloter the Vikings 4th QB is the only one currently under contract for 2018.

There is still an issue up in the air in regards to Teddy Bridgewater. Because he started the season on the PUP list, his contract for the 2017 may toll, and this may mean they could use the 5th year option on Bridgewater to extend him another season. The Vikings have received some push back from members of the CBA in regards to this however, and it is not clear to me or anyone how exactly the rule will be applied in regards to Bridgewater and if they can still use the 5th year option or not. I have given up trying to speculate about this. Depending on how one reads the rule about the PUP list status causing a players contract to toll is the key issue here, and I think it can be interpreted either way. So I am just waiting to see what happens in regards to this.

The 5th year option on players is pretty expensive for a QB anyways, and Teddy only has two passes this season. So the Vikings may not want to use the 5th year option to keep him, even if they can legally do so.

I do think the Vikings relationship with Teddy Bridgewater is such that they will work something out and Bridgewater will be a Vikings beyond this season. However he is not currently under contract.

I also think there is a strong possibility that the Vikings re-sign either Bradford or Keenum in addition to Bridgewater, depending on money of course, but I think they can find a way to sign two of their QBs with either Bradford or Keenum being paid as their starter, with Bridgewater signed more as a back up, but with incentives for if he starts games.

The situation is precarious, but this seems to be how Rick Spielman likes to do business. He likes having a lot of players on one year contracts.

My fear is that the Vikings over pay either Bradford or Keenum after this season and that they end up not earning the contract they receive. In the process perhaps delaying Bridgewaters development, then wanting to get out of the new contracts down the road.

Pat Shurmur is likely going to become a head coach for a new NFL team, and so it makes a lot of sense for that team to perhaps pursue Bradford or Keenum who have played well for Shurmur in the Vikings offensive system. This would make the most sense if Shurmur becomes the HC of the Arizona Cardinals, as it is unknown if Carson Palmer will play for them next season. Bruce Arians has retired, so Palmer may not be part of their future plans.

If Shurmur goes to the Bears or the Lions, they already have QBs in place, so then he likely would not want to pursue Bradford or Keenum for those teams.

 

[Sebowski]

I didn't realize all 3 Vikings QBs were FAs. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

My guesses:

Browns - Josh Allen

Jets - Baker Mayfield

Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill

Broncos - Kirk Cousins

Redskins - Colt McCoy/ Mason Rudolph

Giants - Eli Manning / Josh Rosen

Bengals - Andy Dalton

Cardinals - Lamar Jackson

Ravens - Joe Flacco

Bills - Sam Bradford

Jaguars - Alex Smith

Chiefs - Pat Mahomes

Vikings Case Keenum / Teddy Bridgewater

 

[TripleThreat]

Dolphins may draft one, but reports say the org is happy with Tannehill and believe they would've made the playoffs if he played this season.  

 

[bostonfred]

Dalton completed 60% of his passes with a horrendous o line, their top 10 rookie receiver dropping dnp cds, Tyler kroft at tight end, a rookie running back who never really emerged and a really mediocre supporting cast while his head coach was on his last legs.  

He had five bad games, when they played the early season ravens, early season Texans, the jaguars, the bears and the Vikings. I'm those games he was a combined 781/1/7. In his other  eleven games he was 2534/24/5. 

I'm not saying he had a good year.  I am saying the team around him was brutally bad and when they played very good defenses he didn't have an answer. 

They need an offensive line, stat. And they need to play Ross. Those two changes could make a huge difference.  A healthy tight end would be big too. Dalton is not their problem. 

 

[Donny Loved Bowling]

I think the Jaguars situation is very fluid. Bortles is under contract for next season, and he has played extremely well down the stretch. A deep playoff run for the Jags would probably cement his position as the starter for next season.

Also keep in mind McCarron will be a restricted free agent, possibly unrestricted depending on an arbitrator's ruling next month.

 

[Chasers Dawg]

There is still an issue up in the air in regards to Teddy Bridgewater. Because he started the season on the PUP list, his contract for the 2017 may toll, and this may mean they could use the 5th year option on Bridgewater to extend him another season. The Vikings have received some push back from members of the CBA in regards to this however, and it is not clear to me or anyone how exactly the rule will be applied in regards to Bridgewater and if they can still use the 5th year option or not. I have given up trying to speculate about this. Depending on how one reads the rule about the PUP list status causing a players contract to toll is the key issue here, and I think it can be interpreted either way. So I am just waiting to see what happens in regards to this.

The 5th year option on players is pretty expensive for a QB anyways, and Teddy only has two passes this season. So the Vikings may not want to use the 5th year option to keep him, even if they can legally do so.

I do think the Vikings relationship with Teddy Bridgewater is such that they will work something out and Bridgewater will be a Vikings beyond this season. However he is not currently under contract.

Not sure, but didn't teams have to declare their intent to use the 5th yr option a couple months ago ??

 

[Hankmoody]

My guesses:

Browns - Josh Allen

Jets - Baker Mayfield

Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill

Broncos - Kirk Cousins

Redskins - Colt McCoy/ Mason Rudolph

Giants - Eli Manning / Sam Rosen

Bengals - Andy Dalton

Cardinals - Lamar Jackson

Ravens - Joe Flacco

Bills - Sam Bradford

Jaguars - Alex Smith

Chiefs - Pat Mahomes

Vikings Case Keenum / Teddy Bridgewater

Giants are gonna Frankenstein the two best guys?  That might work

 

[Hankmoody]

Not sure, but didn't teams have to declare their intent to use the 5th yr option a couple months ago ??

Last May, yes, but Bridgewater is a unique situation because his contract is eligible to toll this year.  I haven't seen anything definitive on it yet, but if it does one could argue that since he's only entering his "4th contract year" this year that this is the "spring before his 4th contract year" which is when it has to be declared.  I have the CBA language quoted somewhere around here and there's enough legal mumbo jumbo involved that it's probably got enough merit for a legal argument.

 

[Koya]

Giants are gonna Frankenstein the two best guys?  That might work

EAST COAST BIAS! 

Actually, the browns will trade both their top picks for the giants pick and a pack of camels.  

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Giants are gonna Frankenstein the two best guys?  That might work

I meant the former NY Ranger’s announcer Sam Rosen.

 

[Biabreakable]

Not sure, but didn't teams have to declare their intent to use the 5th yr option a couple months ago ??

If the contract tolls it is as the prior season did not happen, so the option would become available again.

But as I said there is some contention about that possibility. Its isn''t something thats really happened before as far as I know.

 

[Sebowski]

So a couple soes dropped.

Carson Palmer officially retired (again). 

Alex Smith and the Chiefs are done with each other. 

Jags owner has committed to Blake Bortles. The Jaguars won a playoff game. Read that again. The Jaguars won a playoff game. I think Bortles is back next year. 

Bills were held back by Tyrod Taylor today. His teammates didn't help much, but Tyrod didn't look like anything to count on. 

Cousins had a long Q&A that made it sound like he wants to stay. Nothing to make a big deal about, but better talk from him than last offseason. 

Marvin Lewis resigned. I think that means they stick with Dalton another year. 

I think I read the Dolphins commit to Tannehill. 

So I have it at 6/7 teams looking for a QB: Browns, Jets, Broncos, Skins, Cardinals, Bills. Giants as a wildcard. 

And 9/10 QBs available. 5 rookies, 2 Vikings, Cousins, and Smith. 10th being Manning if the Giants move on, but that would be a wash. 

Cousins may not find the market he's hoping for which would make the Redskins more likely to resign him, imo. 

 

[msudaisy26]

Browns - Sam Darnold, it will be a rookie qb, but no one knows who. They could take the qb at 1 or 4. They would really have to fall in love with a player like Chubb or Barkley to wait until 4, but is the Browns so who knows.

Jets - Josh McCown/Josh Allen - They will resign McCown and groom Allen

Dolphins - Tannehill and sign Bortles cheap - Bortles is the odd guy out this year and sees his stock drop, he has to take back up money and a promise to compete for the starting job against Tannehill

Broncos - Cousins because Denver still have above average players at the skill position and a super bowl caliber defense.

Redskins - Baker Mayfield has the fall until the mid teens or the Redskins trade up to grab him

Giants - Josh Rosen and he is thrown right into the fire, the Giants trade/release Eli

Bengals - Dalton stays put. Why? Who knows.

Cardinals - Alex Smith goes here to pair with Fitzgerald for another run at a title.

Ravens - Flacco

Bills - Sam Bradford and Taylor because they never seem to have an urgency to get a high level quarterback and they both come cheaper.

Jaguars - Eli Manning because it is too perfect

Chiefs - Mahomes

Vikings - Keenum and Bridgewater, Keenum was too good this year and you can tell they really want Bridgewater to be the guy. May the best man win

 

[Biabreakable]

I don't think the Jaguars part ways with Bortles (although they probably should). Other than that seems like some plausible guesses msudaidy26

 

[lod001]

A few other team need QB soon. NO, NE, PITT and SD.

Mason Rudolph goes somewhere in the early rounds and a little know pro style QB, Mike White will be scooped up later, probably by one of the better scouting teams. My guess is New England or New Orleans. If all these guys actually make it, and a couple guys come in next year, one by the name of Drew Lock & the other Ryan Finley, then the NFL may be able to put a better product on the field.

 

[bud29]

After doing such an incredible job building the rest of the team, it would be so disappointing to see the Jags keep Bortles. His $19MM cap number in 2018 would be the largest on the team, while being a total liability. Would make so much more sense to use a pick or two to acquire Smith, who is miles ahead of Bortles and only due $1MM more. 

 

[Sebowski]

After doing such an incredible job building the rest of the team, it would be so disappointing to see the Jags keep Bortles. His $19MM cap number in 2018 would be the largest on the team, while being a total liability. Would make so much more sense to use a pick or two to acquire Smith, who is miles ahead of Bortles and only due $1MM more. 

You're probably right, but Bortles is still writing his book. Things will be more clear when/if the Jags get knocked out. 

 

[Tool]

Bortles is still up in the air after today. Let’s see how he does next week at Pitt. I don’t personally think Miami is likely as that’s a pure backup role and he should at a minimum be in a position where he can compete.

i think Tyrod is done in Buffalo.

Rumor of Keenum going with where Shurmer goes. That could be heavily influenced by next weeks game as well.

 

[-OZ-]

Browns - AJ mccarron  / Kizer

Jets - Mccown / Sam Darnold

Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill

Broncos - Kirk Cousins

Redskins - Josh Allen

Giants - Eli Manning / Josh Rosen

Bengals - Andy Dalton

Cardinals - Case Keenum* / Mason Rudolph

Ravens - Joe Flacco

Bills - Alex Smith

Jaguars - Blake Bortles / Baker Mayfield

Chiefs - Pat Mahomes

Vikings Case Keenum* / Sam Bradford / Teddy Bridgewater

* Keenum contingent on Shurmur signing with a team in need of a QB.

 

[Grahamburn]

I think the Jaguars situation is very fluid. Bortles is under contract for next season, and he has played extremely well down the stretch. A deep playoff run for the Jags would probably cement his position as the starter for next season.

Also keep in mind McCarron will be a restricted free agent, possibly unrestricted depending on an arbitrator's ruling next month.

They are going to waste that defense if they keep Bortles.  He was brutal yesterday.

 

[Sebowski]

Browns - AJ mccarron  / Kizer

Jets - Mccown / Sam Darnold

Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill

Broncos - Kirk Cousins

Redskins - Josh Allen

Giants - Eli Manning / Josh Rosen

Bengals - Andy Dalton

Cardinals - Case Keenum* / Mason Rudolph

Ravens - Joe Flacco

Bills - Alex Smith

Jaguars - Blake Bortles / Baker Mayfield

Chiefs - Pat Mahomes

Vikings Case Keenum* / Sam Bradford / Teddy Bridgewater

* Keenum contingent on Shurmur signing with a team in need of a QB.

Do you think Mayfeild is going to fall to the bottom of the 1st round? I think he goes top 15. 

 

[-OZ-]

Do you think Mayfeild is going to fall to the bottom of the 1st round? I think he goes top 15. 

I think, but really have no idea what to expect of him right now. It's entirely possible the jags trade up, don't give quite as much as the Texans did but similar concept.

 

[TheJewru]

My guesses:

Browns - Josh Allen

Jets - Baker Mayfield

Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill

Broncos - Kirk Cousins

Redskins - Colt McCoy/ Mason Rudolph

Giants - Eli Manning / Josh Rosen

Bengals - Andy Dalton

Cardinals - Lamar Jackson

Ravens - Joe Flacco

Bills - Sam Bradford

Jaguars - Alex Smith

Chiefs - Pat Mahomes

Vikings Case Keenum / Teddy Bridgewater

Any chance considering their cap space that the Jets  pay up for Cousins or is it your belief that Elways already has his hooks in him 

 

[Sebowski]

Any chance considering their cap space that the Jets  pay up for Cousins or is it your belief that Elways already has his hooks in him 

I've read that the Broncos would actually have a lot of cap trouble trying to sign Cousins. 

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Any chance considering their cap space that the Jets  pay up for Cousins or is it your belief that Elways already has his hooks in him 

I think the Jets will consider signing him - but I think Cousins will choose a team where he can win (if the money is close). I do think that the Jets preference would be to draft their QB since this is a young team.

 

[TheJewru]

Thanks Dr OCH

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

A few other team need QB soon. NO, NE, PITT and SD.

Mason Rudolph goes somewhere in the early rounds and a little know pro style QB, Mike White will be scooped up later, probably by one of the better scouting teams. My guess is New England or New Orleans. If all these guys actually make it, and a couple guys come in next year, one by the name of Drew Lock & the other Ryan Finley, then the NFL may be able to put a better product on the field.

Good points.

I can see NE looking to shore up their next QB, both given the very recent whispers (however true or not) of some discontent in-house, and because they have 0 back-up plan. 

SD and PIT seem like they can wait -- Ben is 35, Rivers is 36. Getting up in age, and I guess Ben's injury history becomes more of an issue every year that goes by, but playing at a level that these teams are not in a must-solve-now position. SD has a second rounder in Clemens and Cardale Jones. PIT has 4th rounder Landry Jones who showed he could at least be serviceable in backup. So -- still a concern, but I don't think they spend high draft picks or $ in FA to find their next guy. 

Brees is 38. They have a UDFA journeyman and an undrafted QB/ST player with injury history coming out of college. They would be wise to address this sooner and not later.

 

[MikeApf]

Browns - Rookie. Let's call it Darnold to piss off SoulFly

Jets - Rookie. Let's call it Mayfield. 

Broncos - Rookie. Let's call it Allen

Dolphins - Tricky. I think they take a rookie if a top 4 falls to them or give Tannehill one more shot if no one falls. If one is falling maybe they get antsy and trade up a couple spots. I don't know where else to put the last rookie so I'll give them the last rookie, Rosen in this exercise. Rookie can compete with Tannehill. Ok, so more realistically this is Darnold and Rosen goes to the Browns. Whatever. Point is: Dolphins take a top 4 rookie. 

Redskins - Cousins is gone, imo. For better or worse I think they don't hate McCoy enough to over pay for a trade up or trade for a vet. I think they sign whoever shakes loose from the Vikings or Alex Smith. I can also see Gruden wanting Dalton if the Bengals turn the page there. New regime coming in. McCarron there. I think there is a decent chance Dalton is available. For this exercise I'll go with Sam Bradford. Snyder has loved this dude since his rookie draft. Vikings will let him go. 

Giants - I would love to hear some Panthers fans chime in on the new GM in New Jersey. Will he try to do a quick reset and go for another ring with Manning? Clean sweep? I'm going with them drafting Barkley and sticking with Manning. 

Bengals - I know I just said Dalton could be a goner, but more likely for me is they draft a 2nd tier rookie and give Dalton another year. 

Cardinals - Palmer should retire. He just should. And if he doesn't the Cardinals should move on anyway. They aren't drafting high enough for a top rookie so they will be in play for Cousins and the rest of the FAs. I'll call this one Alex Smith

Ravens - I keep hearing the Flacco contract is too tough to get out of. That sucks for the Ravens. They should move on, but I guess they don't? Flacco stays here. 

Bills - This upcoming playoff game will be huge. For them to break this 18 year drought while benching Tayrod is pretty crazy. I'm going to take a risk here and say they let Tayrod go and sign the guy that beats him in the playoffs: Blake Bortles 

Jaguars - Jaguars have shown they are not afraid to spend big cash on FAs. They will break the bank for Kirk Cousins.

Chiefs - This obviously depends on how the playoff run goes. Everyone is assuming they will lose and then move on from Smith to Mahomes. That is why they drafted him. It would be crazy to see the Chiefs win the Super Bowl. Then what? They can't switch QBs after winning a Super Bowl. But I'm with the masses. They lose in the playoffs and Mahomes starts next year. 

Vikings - Pretty similar to the Chiefs situation. The playoff run will determine everything. If I'm a Vikings fan I would want them to hand the keys to Keenum. What more could you ask from a QB than what Keenum has done this year? If Teddy wants to stick around to compete, fine. Bradford walks. 

"Redskins - Cousins is gone, imo. For better or worse I think they don't hate McCoy enough to over pay for a trade up or trade for a vet. I think they sign whoever shakes loose from the Vikings or Alex Smith. I can also see Gruden wanting Dalton if the Bengals turn the page there. New regime coming in. McCarron there. I think there is a decent chance Dalton is available. For this exercise I'll go with Sam Bradford. Snyder has loved this dude since his rookie draft. Vikings will let him go."

So, basically, Colt McCoy, after Bradford goes down with injury in the second game of the season.  :-|

Seriously, cool post, cool format, my two cents:

Browns -- first pick, top 4 rookie (rosen or darnold) -- after not taking QB early over and over, they just have to pull the trigger this year.

Jets -- sixth pick, top 4 rookie (Mayfield or Allen)

Dolphins -- call me crazy but I think depending on his health they are gonna give Tanneyhill one more chance this year...may even trade down and take a project QB later...

Broncos -- They've been burned with draft picks and will eye a veteran.  Cousins will go here even if less than Washington offers to win and get away from Snyder/Allen monster.

Redskins -- If Dolphins pass on QB and no one trades up, they luck box into the 4th best QB, either Mayfield or Allen whoever is left over.  But maybe this is my dream fantasy.  I think there is a chance Colt starts the season and they actually let the rookie learn on the bench initially.  Of course, Snyder always thinks he's one player away from a championship so they could pay Alex Smith. But I'm gonna say they go with the shiny new object in the rookie.

Giants -- second pick, top 4 rookie (left over of Rosen or Darnold) -- I think in some ways Mara wants Eli to stay but when will Giants pick this high again?  They have to seize the ring for the future.

Bengals -- they will keep Dalton; bird in the hand better than alternative.  Agree maybe pick a later round guy as project.

Cardinals -- They may end up making the best move and getting Alex Smith.  If they lose out on Smith, I dunno Bradford?

Ravens -- Flacco stays

Bills -- I can see them in a bidding war with Ariz for Alex Smith.  If they lose out, then Bradford.

Jaguars -- I'm gonna say that Eli goes off to JAX to reunite with Coughlin.

Chiefs -- Mahomes

Vikings -- Keenum

WILD CARD:  

Lamar Jackson, Louisville and Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State could also go in first round and I'm going to put them as provisional pickups for Cardinals, Ravens, and Bills...

I'm sure I'm wrong on all of these, but fun to speculate.