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Pitchers... and the hall of fame... (1 Viewer)

DropKick

Footballguy
I started wondering about this during the Schilling HOF discussions since 216 wins to me seems pretty respectable. The 300 "standard" is a HUGE number; it would take 15 consecutive twenty win seasons to reach that mark Heck, do many people even win "20" anymore? Hard to believe the O's once had four 20 game winners in one season! Or that Mark Fidrych had 24 COMPLETE GAMES in his rookie season!

Obviously, pitch counts and "specialization" has changed the way pitchers are managed. Are the historical "standards" out-dated?

I heard a statement that the last pitcher elected to the hall was Nolan Ryan... 10 years ago?

So, how important are "wins"???

 
I started wondering about this during the Schilling HOF discussions since 216 wins to me seems pretty respectable. The 300 "standard" is a HUGE number; it would take 15 consecutive twenty win seasons to reach that mark Heck, do many people even win "20" anymore? Hard to believe the O's once had four 20 game winners in one season! Or that Mark Fidrych had 24 COMPLETE GAMES in his rookie season!Obviously, pitch counts and "specialization" has changed the way pitchers are managed. Are the historical "standards" out-dated?I heard a statement that the last pitcher elected to the hall was Nolan Ryan... 10 years ago?So, how important are "wins"???
Yes. I think you are right.
 
I started wondering about this during the Schilling HOF discussions since 216 wins to me seems pretty respectable. The 300 "standard" is a HUGE number; it would take 15 consecutive twenty win seasons to reach that mark Heck, do many people even win "20" anymore? Hard to believe the O's once had four 20 game winners in one season! Or that Mark Fidrych had 24 COMPLETE GAMES in his rookie season!

Obviously, pitch counts and "specialization" has changed the way pitchers are managed. Are the historical "standards" out-dated?

I heard a statement that the last pitcher elected to the hall was Nolan Ryan... 10 years ago?

So, how important are "wins"???
Yes. I think you are right.
Here are the active pitchers with 150+ wins. I was somewhat surprised by Moyer and Rogers but they were able to stay in the game for 20+ years.Tom Glavine 305

Randy Johnson 296

Jamie Moyer 248

Kenny Rogers 219

Andy Pettitte 217

Pedro Martinez 214

John Smoltz 210

Tim Wakefield 180

Bartolo Colon 151

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major..._in_career_wins

 
I started wondering about this during the Schilling HOF discussions since 216 wins to me seems pretty respectable. The 300 "standard" is a HUGE number; it would take 15 consecutive twenty win seasons to reach that mark Heck, do many people even win "20" anymore? Hard to believe the O's once had four 20 game winners in one season! Or that Mark Fidrych had 24 COMPLETE GAMES in his rookie season!

Obviously, pitch counts and "specialization" has changed the way pitchers are managed. Are the historical "standards" out-dated?

I heard a statement that the last pitcher elected to the hall was Nolan Ryan... 10 years ago?

So, how important are "wins"???
300 wins is not the standard, and it never really ever was. It's a mark of pretty much certain election, but the average Wins for the HOF starting pitchers* is around 266. The median is only 254. Here's the breakdown...

#Wins / #Inductees

0-150 / 1 (Dizzy Dean)

151-200 / 9

201-225 / 9

226-250 / 8

251-275 / 9

276-300 / 4

301-325 / 7

326-350 / 4

351-375 / 5

376+ / 2

* Not including Satchel Paige and guys who were elected as much or more for their other achievements (Ruth, Spalding, Griffith)

Recently eligible, but unelected, SPs include (with their #Wins and their ERA+). Note that the average ERA+ for inductees is 122. Other than Bert, i don't HOF in those profiles.

1. Bert Blyleven - 287 / 118

2. Tommy John - 288 / 110

3. Jim Kaat - 283 / 107

4. Jack Morris - 254 / 105

5. Dennis Martinez - 245 / 106

6. Frank Tanana - 240 / 106

7. Luis Tiant - 229 / 114

8. Jerry Koosman - 222 / 110

9. Joe Niekro - 221 / 97

10. Jerry Reuss - 220 / 100

Your theory will be tested in over the next 5-10 years, as these guys become eligible. 1,2,9 are no-brainers to me. The test cases will be Mussina, Schilling, and Smoltz. I would be quite comfortable voting for all 3.

1. Tom Glavine - 305 / 118

2. Randy Johnson - 297 / 137

3. Mike Mussina - 270 / 123

4. Jamie Moyer - 248 / 105

5. David Wells - 239 / 108

6. Kenny Rogers - 219 / 108

7. Andy Pettitte - 217 / 117

8. Curt Schilling - 216 / 127

9. Pedro Martinez - 214 / 154

10. John Smoltz - 210 / 127

11. Kevin Brown - 211 / 127

 
Looking at it another way, by ERA+. There are 20 starting pitchers in the HOF with an ERA+ of at least 127. Of those 20, here is the breakdown of Wins...

Wins / #HOF

0-150 / 1

151-200 / 4

201-225 / 2

226-250 / 3

251-275 / 2

276-300 / 1

301-325 / 1

326-350 / 1

351-375 / 3

376+ / 2

Top heavy (Cy, Big Train, Alexander, Mathewson, Nichols, Clarkson), but plenty of examples of excellent ERA, low-Wins guys who have been elected. In fact, the median Wins is only 248.

 

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