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Player Prop Betting - the official thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
JSN is a terrific bet, there's articles with his name mentioned on a lot of sleeper lists this week, I would encourage you to go that way and have fun with it
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Christian Watson over 39.5 rec yds seems intriguing. As pointed out on tv on espnbet(I think)
3 hour lunch
Footballguy
I like Nix over 203 and D Jones over 209 on Sunday. Jones lit it up against the Vikes twice recently.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
sportsbooks are just printing money
I tend to agree, but I hit all my overs yesterday. Hope to split today.
Edit to say, feel like players have the advantage the first couple and last couple of weeks.
3 hour lunch
Footballguy
I’m sure it does favor the books slightly, but I’m playing super low stakes and enjoy rooting for an over more, so about 90% of my bets are overs. I do some unders too but often weather related. I also hit most of mine last 2 days, it’s streaky like anything else I guess
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Jacobs is wide open a lot, Love doesn't like to check down
-Then Boom FD for Jacobs on a screen
-Then Boom FD for Jacobs on a screen
Interesting, i like him, but haven't pulled that trigger. Maybe. Good luck!
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
I like Nabers, MHJ, Jamo, and JSN at 50+ yards.
titusbramble
Footballguy
I usually do a lucky 31 (i.e. all permutations of singles up) on five players to score a touchdown at any time in the 1pm slate just for funking value while watching Redzone. If you hit a couple in the first quarter it becomes quite exciting
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Any time TDs, both are over +200
Coleman
Fields
Over on Shakir, 3.5 catches and I think it was about 50 yards.
Coleman
Fields
Over on Shakir, 3.5 catches and I think it was about 50 yards.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
DK had a happy hour bonus last night for MHJ, Nabers, and Odunze all 30+ yards +175. Thought that was a pretty solid prop parlay, especially considering the bonus. Obviously Odunze is the biggest risk here, but I suspect he'll get 30+ pretty easily.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Yeah that looks like good value. In general the odds boosts on DK and FD are usually worth just blindly betting, they're trying to give away money on those. (The "odds boosts" at other books are often not actually boosted at all and you can often find a better price elsewhere on just the regular markets, so it's always worth shopping around to sense-check the value.)
TampaMike19
Footballguy
That or sportsbooks make Week 1 props look like layups and then they lose money in a “promotional way” but then get you back in the next 16 games!
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
For FD/DK, that's their strategy except it's not limited to week 1. All year round they're trying to lose X% on odds boosts. It's essentially a marketing expense through margin. They know they're going to win it back on everything else, but they're not trying to win it back with other odds boosts. You can blindly bet those all season and you are pretty much guaranteed to come out ahead - the issues being a) low max bets on the odds boosts, so you're not going to win a ton in absolute terms, and b) if all you ever do is bet odds boosts they'll just flag you as a promo abuser and eventually cut you off. But if you're a recreational bettor just take the free money when they give it out.
Max Power
Footballguy
I jumped on this as well.
I got swift earlier in the week for over 11.5 rec yards. His line is at 15.5 now.
Took a huge swing on a Tyler Scott anytime TD at +1000. I think the Bears will send him on 2-3 deep routes today and hoping one connects.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Oooof. Scott is inactive. Hopefully they will null that bet.
titusbramble
Footballguy
This week you want to avoid betting on Jonathan Taylor, Raheem Mostert, Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara and Dalton Kincaid
Max Power
Footballguy
Thanks. I hadn't seen that yet.
Eta: they did
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Soooooo stinking close.
Nice thought here.
I almost quoted this post last night remembering it but didn’t want to jinx it.
Thought you might even get an overtime TD but the lions just rammed it down their throat.
Watching closely for next weeks fun prop bet.
It was a typo..the actual bet was just 1 TD. 2 TD's would have increased the odds to over +10000. I picked up over $1600 on that parlay. I typed in correctly in the Lions thread and game thread. The odds had increased to +2667 on game day which I threw down an extra $40. I transferred $100 over and am kicking myself for not putting the whole $100 down.
VikingFrog
Footballguy
Good for you man.
karl.Racki
Footballguy
Fanduel has Hall and CMC combine for 300 yards rushing for +13000.
Def worth a few bucks chance
Def worth a few bucks chance
karl.Racki
Footballguy
Im worried Rodgers going to come out throwing tonight.
Max Power
Footballguy
Possible. I'm hoping both teams watched all the out of sync offenses over the weekend and realize they need to lean on the run early.
I used a risk-free token and put $25 on this. Hall went for over 175 twice last year, but against weak defenses. Typically week he was pedestrian. Pretty remote chance of hitting unless CMC goes off.
Kiniavelly
Footballguy
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