Player Spotlight: Adrian Peterson (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Adrian Peterson, RB, Minnesota Vikings

Player Page Link: Adrian Peterson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[JimboJim]

I don't like this situation at all from a fantasy perspective. My guess is Childress with rely heavily on the running game and try to split carries between his two runners. I'm projecting roughly 400 carries between the two with a 60/40 split in Chester's favor. Both players should be good #3 RBs/spot starters.

160 carries

720 yards rushing

5 rushing TDs

20 receptions

160 yards recieving

1 recieving TD

 

[Blackjacks]

I think the duo of AD and Chester will get closer to 500 carries than 400. I also think that AD will be the primary guy especially in the second half of the season, when it counts for us fantasy guys. I think Minn. might have the best oline in football and the worst qb in football which equals alot of carries for the boys in the backfield and Childress is going to rely heavily on the running game. I see it being very similiar to Indy's rotation last year except being relied on alot heavier. I think Peterson is going to be a stud for years to come if he can stay healthy.

275 carries

1200 yards

9 td's

30 receptions

180 yards

1 td

I think injuries are the only thing that will hold him back. I also think Jackson just needs to be descent as well, that's the part that scares me.

 

[JimboJim]

I think the duo of AD and Chester will get closer to 500 carries than 400.

I really hope they do. Before the draft, I thought the Vikes taking Peterson and using both him and Taylor to wear teams down would take a lot of pressure off of Jackson.The only thing that worries me is if Jackson is ineffective, it's going to be difficult for the Vikes to get 32 carries a game period, let alone only between Taylor and AD.

 

[Biabreakable]

1st of all I have not done Viking team projections yet. But it is a questionable task so it is one I am going to address.

Last year the Vikings ran the ball 442 times and averaged 4.12 YPC as a team.

393 of those rushing attempts came from the RBs 303 of those were Chester Taylor who missed game 14 and did not play as well following his injury week 13 against Chicago. Artose Pinner had 29 carries week 14 while Chester was out but never had more than 3 carries in any other game.

Chester Taylor had a EOY 4.0 YPC but the majority of his runs were for 3 yards or less. His YPC being boosted by a handful of explosive plays. 6 of them that went for over 20 yards over 15 games.

I think Childress has shown a great commitment to the running game based off of Taylors performance. I also think that Adrian Peterson has a lot more talent than Chester does and those explosive plays will come much more frequently from him than Chester could ever hope to do.

Childress has also shown to not be a RBBC coach when one looks at his commitment to Chester when healthy despite Chesters ineffectivness in several games during the season. Part of this may be due to lack of a better option. But I think at least a large part of it is due to philosophy as well.

Brad Johnson.. yes Brad Johnson ran the ball 29 times last year at 2.8 YPC. Tarvaris Jackson on the other hand in limited action ran the ball 15 times at 5.1 YPC.

I think it is safe to say that Jackson is a much more athletic QB than Johnson is and Jackson has proven to be an effective runner when he cannot find an open reciever. In the 3 games that Jackson played significantly he averaged 5 rushing attempts/game. 3/5/7 respectivly. I can easily see Jackson running the ball about 60 times this season.

In the 3 games where Jackson played significant time he averaged 25 pass attempts/game. While I do not expect his pass attempts to be on such a short leash this season I still do not see Childress having Jackson come out winging it from start to finish of any game.

Another thing that I think is significant here in understanding the Viking offense from last year. The Vikings were one of the worst teams in the league at converting 3rd downs (33%). Only the Titans, Lions, Bills and Panthers were worse at converting 3rd downs (as an asside no wonder the Panthers struggled). Just as importantly however the Vikings were 3rd best in the league at converting 4th downs (71.4%) So it seems pretty clear to me that if the Vikings needed to run for short yardage to gain a 1st down they were very effective doing it. But if they were in 3rd down and more than 4 yards to go it was very difficult to keep the drive alive by passing the ball.

So the Vikings managed to run 1025 total plays in 2006. This was the 9th most ammount of plays in the league last year because of a nearly 2 minute TOP advantage on average for the season (5th best) as well as forcing 36 total turnovers 3rd best after the Ravens and Bears. If the Vikings had not turned over the ball so much themselves (32 times 20int 12fumbles only 7 teams turned the ball over more than this) they likely would have won at least a few more games and the TOP difference as well as total plays run on offense would have been higher than it was.

So with it allready being clear the teams philosophy and commitment to the running game, coupled with an inexperienced QB and recieving corps and possibly improved defense (although it remains to be seen how much losing Tomlin will effect the defense) I am seeing a similar total number of offensive plays run but with many more rushing attempts than there were last year.

At 1010 total plays I am expecting the distribution to be 515 pass attempts and 495 rushing attempts.

I expect Peterson to be the main RB here although he may be worked into the offense slowly in the early weeks. Peterson has allready impressed the coaches with his ability to catch the ball and with his pass protection. Some things that were questions and unknowns at the time they drafted him. Based off of this I do not see Peterson taking a backseat to Taylor while he learns these aspects of the game. Or at least not for long.

I do think Chester is a significant upgrade in talent from Mewelde Moore/Pinner/Fason and will be utilized more often on 3rd downs and there will be a COP role for him in this offense that will run the ball more often than it did last year.

So off the cuff with 60 rushing attempts going to Jackson and another 5 going to WRs that leaves 430 rushing attempts for the RBs. Now how will they be distributed amoung the RBs?

I see Peterson getting 230-285 carries 4.5YPC 1035-1282.5 yards 9TD but his YPC could be higher and that could lead to more carries than I am predicting for his high of 285.

Chester Taylor getting 120-190 carries 4YPC 480-760 yards 2TD.

Other RBs getting 10-25 carries 4YPC 40-100 yards 0TD.

Like I said I have not done full projections for the Vikings yet I am more just thinking aloud here. The passing numbers for the RBs would take more work to figure out and I do expect Chester to have the 3rd down role which will limit Petersons targets although I wont be suprised to see him catch somthing like 20 balls and probobly a high YPC on those with possibly another score or few because his speed is deadly in space. I also expect AD to be the man on the goal line and in short yardage because he is a much more powerful runner than anyone else the Vikings have.

 

[Donnybrook]

Carries 175

Yards 745

Yards/Carry 4.3

TDs 6

Receptions 22

Yards 194

Avg 8.8

TD 1

These stats may look familiar since they belong to NE RB Laurence Maroney. I think Peterson will put up similar stats. Maybe a few more TDs since Peterson will get more goal line opportunities.

(I hope he can exceed these stats but I will not be disappointed if he doesn't.)

 

[mlball77]

Not only is the RBBC situation a big question mark in my mind currently, but so is the state of the Viking offense. Neither factor is a deal breaker for me personally, but both make me a bit hesitant to get too high on Peterson.

 

[Q-Bert]

1st of all I have not done Viking team projections yet. But it is a questionable task so it is one I am going to address.Last year the Vikings ran the ball 442 times and averaged 4.12 YPC as a team.393 of those rushing attempts came from the RBs 303 of those were Chester Taylor who missed game 14 and did not play as well following his injury week 13 against Chicago. Artose Pinner had 29 carries week 14 while Chester was out but never had more than 3 carries in any other game.Chester Taylor had a EOY 4.0 YPC but the majority of his runs were for 3 yards or less. His YPC being boosted by a handful of explosive plays. 6 of them that went for over 20 yards over 15 games.I think Childress has shown a great commitment to the running game based off of Taylors performance. I also think that Adrian Peterson has a lot more talent than Chester does and those explosive plays will come much more frequently from him than Chester could ever hope to do.Childress has also shown to not be a RBBC coach when one looks at his commitment to Chester when healthy despite Chesters ineffectivness in several games during the season. Part of this may be due to lack of a better option. But I think at least a large part of it is due to philosophy as well.Brad Johnson.. yes Brad Johnson ran the ball 29 times last year at 2.8 YPC. Tarvaris Jackson on the other hand in limited action ran the ball 15 times at 5.1 YPC.I think it is safe to say that Jackson is a much more athletic QB than Johnson is and Jackson has proven to be an effective runner when he cannot find an open reciever. In the 3 games that Jackson played significantly he averaged 5 rushing attempts/game. 3/5/7 respectivly. I can easily see Jackson running the ball about 60 times this season.In the 3 games where Jackson played significant time he averaged 25 pass attempts/game. While I do not expect his pass attempts to be on such a short leash this season I still do not see Childress having Jackson come out winging it from start to finish of any game. Another thing that I think is significant here in understanding the Viking offense from last year. The Vikings were one of the worst teams in the league at converting 3rd downs (33%). Only the Titans, Lions, Bills and Panthers were worse at converting 3rd downs (as an asside no wonder the Panthers struggled). Just as importantly however the Vikings were 3rd best in the league at converting 4th downs (71.4%) So it seems pretty clear to me that if the Vikings needed to run for short yardage to gain a 1st down they were very effective doing it. But if they were in 3rd down and more than 4 yards to go it was very difficult to keep the drive alive by passing the ball.So the Vikings managed to run 1025 total plays in 2006. This was the 9th most ammount of plays in the league last year because of a nearly 2 minute TOP advantage on average for the season (5th best) as well as forcing 36 total turnovers 3rd best after the Ravens and Bears. If the Vikings had not turned over the ball so much themselves (32 times 20int 12fumbles only 7 teams turned the ball over more than this) they likely would have won at least a few more games and the TOP difference as well as total plays run on offense would have been higher than it was.So with it allready being clear the teams philosophy and commitment to the running game, coupled with an inexperienced QB and recieving corps and possibly improved defense (although it remains to be seen how much losing Tomlin will effect the defense) I am seeing a similar total number of offensive plays run but with many more rushing attempts than there were last year.At 1010 total plays I am expecting the distribution to be 515 pass attempts and 495 rushing attempts.I expect Peterson to be the main RB here although he may be worked into the offense slowly in the early weeks. Peterson has allready impressed the coaches with his ability to catch the ball and with his pass protection. Some things that were questions and unknowns at the time they drafted him. Based off of this I do not see Peterson taking a backseat to Taylor while he learns these aspects of the game. Or at least not for long.I do think Chester is a significant upgrade in talent from Mewelde Moore/Pinner/Fason and will be utilized more often on 3rd downs and there will be a COP role for him in this offense that will run the ball more often than it did last year.So off the cuff with 60 rushing attempts going to Jackson and another 5 going to WRs that leaves 430 rushing attempts for the RBs. Now how will they be distributed amoung the RBs?I see Peterson getting 230-285 carries 4.5YPC 1035-1282.5 yards 9TD but his YPC could be higher and that could lead to more carries than I am predicting for his high of 285.Chester Taylor getting 120-190 carries 4YPC 480-760 yards 2TD.Other RBs getting 10-25 carries 4YPC 40-100 yards 0TD.Like I said I have not done full projections for the Vikings yet I am more just thinking aloud here. The passing numbers for the RBs would take more work to figure out and I do expect Chester to have the 3rd down role which will limit Petersons targets although I wont be suprised to see him catch somthing like 20 balls and probobly a high YPC on those with possibly another score or few because his speed is deadly in space. I also expect AD to be the man on the goal line and in short yardage because he is a much more powerful runner than anyone else the Vikings have.

Excellent post. Very well thought out. I agree with nearly everything you said.My rough projections are very similarPeterson250 Carries1125 Yards8 TDs20 Receptions160 Yards

 

[shadyridr]

Im high on Peterson THIS year. I will look to take him earlier than most people. Hopefully I can sneak him onto my roster as my RB3. I think he takes over for Taylor sooner than later. And although Taylor will still get some carries I think there will be enough carries to go around for both of them. Ill say by the 3rd game Peterson gets 18 carries a game and Taylor gets 10 a game. Despite having the worst QB/WR combo is football this team has a dominant offensive line. They will be a run first team and will run often hoping to keep the games close and rely on their dominant rush defense. Peterson should be good enough for a 4.5 ypc and will help ALOT of fantasy teams down the stretch. Dont sleep on him this year. He will be the rookie RB to own.

280 att, 1170 yds, 10tds, 30 rec, 200 yds, 1 td (That should place him at about RB14 or so which sounds about right to me).

 

[David Yudkin]

Carries 175 Yards 745 Yards/Carry 4.3TDs 6Receptions 22Yards 194 Avg 8.8TD 1These stats may look familiar since they belong to NE RB Laurence Maroney. I think Peterson will put up similar stats. Maybe a few more TDs since Peterson will get more goal line opportunities. (I hope he can exceed these stats but I will not be disappointed if he doesn't.)

The main difference I see between the Pats and Vikes would be that NE scored 20 rushing TD to MIN having scored 12. Similarly, the Pats offense improved by leaps and bounds and the Vikings lost Taylor, Robinson, and Wiggins and have Jackson at QB instead of Brady.

 

[David Yudkin]

Im high on Peterson THIS year. I will look to take him earlier than most people. Hopefully I can sneak him onto my roster as my RB3.

His current ADP (pardon the pun) is #44 overall for what it's worth.

 

[shadyridr]

Im high on Peterson THIS year. I will look to take him earlier than most people. Hopefully I can sneak him onto my roster as my RB3.

His current ADP (pardon the pun) is #44 overall for what it's worth.

In a perfect world I will draft him in the 4th round as my RB3 after 2RBs and a WR

 

[Phlash]

I think the duo of AD and Chester will get closer to 500 carries than 400. I also think that AD will be the primary guy especially in the second half of the season, when it counts for us fantasy guys. I think Minn. might have the best oline in football and the worst qb in football which equals alot of carries for the boys in the backfield and Childress is going to rely heavily on the running game. I see it being very similiar to Indy's rotation last year except being relied on alot heavier. I think Peterson is going to be a stud for years to come if he can stay healthy.275 carries1200 yards9 td's30 receptions180 yards1 tdI think injuries are the only thing that will hold him back. I also think Jackson just needs to be descent as well, that's the part that scares me.

I completely agree with your projections.Chester Taylor isn't a bum, he just isn't a feature back. AD runs like a horse, and should have the starting job wrapped up by week 4.

 

[rzrback77]

I have trouble forecasting huge years for rookie running backs, especially on teams that have a moderately successful RB returning. I think that with A Peterson coming off an injury as well, that the Vikings will tag team the RBs and bring the rookie along slowly. So for the year, I am projecting a near 50/50 split.

I also believe that the running game will be stressed in Minnesota, but I don't think the offense will be successful enough to total anywhere near 500 carries. I think that 440 is a very optimistic number for the Vikings.

The past three years they have had rushing attempts of 289, 326, and 393. Granted that 04 was with a successful Culpepper, but their QB play has not been that good for the past two years and they have still averaged less than 360 carries.

I'll go with what may be one of the lower projections for Peterson,

200 carries for 800 yards (4.0 ypc) 6 TDs and 20 catches for 150 yards and one more TD

 

[nygiants56]

pros:

very good offensive line.

plays indoors, so weather isn't a factor ( plays indoors in Detroit, too).

good HC..

relatively easy schedule vs. porous run defenses

cons:

questions at QB could lead to 8-9 man fronts.

questions at WR lead to defenses not respecting the pass and getting after the run.

loss of Mike Tomlin will affect the Vikings defense in a negative way, so, do they revert back to the lousy run defense they were in 2005? if so, that means they will play from behind more often in 2007, passing more and running less..it also means less time of possession for the vikings offense, if their defense can't stop anyone.

biggest problem I see is his shoulder..a RB with a hard-hitting style like his, can't take many hits without problems arising...eventually, he's going to re-injure that shoulder..

great talent, but a risky draft pick. the guy has been hurt in each of the past 2 seasons, 10 game college season..so how,exactly, is he supposed to make it thru a 16-game NFL season,unscathed?!

I won't touch him...has Rob't Smith v2.0, written all over him.

 

[Rev]

Just heard a local news report today in which the Vikings offensive coordinator praised Tavaris for being a very smart QB who will surprise alot of people with his ability to make good decisions and plays. That gives me a glimmer of hope for the hastening of AD's development. I see the 2nd half of the season as a time in which his carries double (at Chester's expense) along with his production.

All told:

Wks 1-8: 90 carries for 360 yards, 2 TD

Wks 9-16: 175 carries for 735 yards, 5 TD

TOTAL: 265 carries for 1095 yards, 7 TD

39 receptions for 420 yards

 

[BigSteelThrill]

Peterson will go to high in most drafts for his production. (barring an injury before the season or during. that is)

A true RBBC approach in Minnesota this year.

195 carries.

880 yards.

8 TDs.

12 receptions.

105 yards.

He wil look the part as the better base runner in Minnesota.

He will break some nice long gainers and show speed and power.

He has plenty of talent, though some have overtsated it a wee bit.

A young QB and lack of receiving options will have the Vikings leaning on Taylor more then most assume.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I see ADP as a guy who will step in and not only instantly be, by far, the best offensive player on the Vikings, but also a guy who has the ability to make the Vikings offense better (still not good, but his big play ability will fill a HUGE void). Chester Taylor is a servicable NFL RB. He'll still see work in relief and on 3rd downs (at least at first), but I don't see any way he keeps a healthy Peterson on the bench this year.

As stated above, Minnesota had 393 RB carries last year; what no one has mentioned are the 106 catches that their RBs accounted for. Predicting 500+ combined touches for Taylor/Peterson doesn't seem a stretch to me, and I believe that the majority of those touches go to AD.

Another thing that nobody has mentioned, in this thread anyway, is Peterson's desire to be great and his work ethic. He'll work hard to develop as both a blocker and receiver, has ample athleticism to be a huge threat in space, and I think that he'll be fully featured (three downs) by mid-season at the latest (he'll be the lead rusher starting week one).

The Vikings offense is, of course, a concern. I don't see any way, though, that they don't improve, given the addition of AD and Rice and continued maturation from Jackson (and Williamson and the other WRs). A small to medium step forward seems likely to me for the offense as a whole. The line will be very good, regardless, which should help the process considerably.

275 carries for 1240 yards, 30 catches for 250 yards, 8 total TDs

 

[Biabreakable]

I think that people are underestimating AD or overestimting Chester or both of they think this will be an even split of rushing attempts between the 2 RB.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

What are the 'unique' factors with AP that set him apart from others? I count SIX factors that set him apart. In no particular order...1. Chester Taylor

Taylor's role could shift into a complimentary change-of-pace RB ALA Reggie Bush to Deuce McAllister. The Saint situation was different in that Bush came in as a rookie whereas Deuce was the entrenched vet. Then Reggie's unique skill set matched the WR/RB hybrid role concocted by Payton to compliment Mac. In Minnesota Chet is the vet and AP is the rookie where Chester's role would change dramatically if he were used as a change-of-pace RB. The reason why Chester's role would be expected to change is because Peterson's skill set is that of a feature back. The transition from Chester Taylor to Adrian Peterson is going to happen but we don't know how easy the transition will be.

2. Tavaris Jackson

Unproven QB will dictate defenses will load the box with eight defenders and dare the kid QB to beat them. Its doubtful he's going to help his RBs this year, if ever, so whoever is the feature back is going to be a marked man and keyed on by every defense he faces. Peterson might find a solid niche to help Tavaris in the passing game flairing out of the backfield. I already love what I have seen of Peterson's pass blocking ability with the Sooners so I think Adrian will be an upgrade over Taylor in that department once he is up to speed on his blitz pick up assignments. If AP develops into a weapon flairing out into the flat then the Vikes may begin to utilize Adrian more by moving him around and setting him out on deeper pass patterns.

3. Adrian Peterson's skills

All RBs have unique skill sets as does AP who has the measurables of size/strength/speed. Peterson has all of the requisite skills to be an every down feature back where he could be on the field for every offensive snap and produce well. I struggle to compare him to other backs because in addition to the requisite skills he has the game-breaking ability where he EXPLODES just as the defender is making contact with him and he's powerful and speedy enough where he makes tons of YAC after he expodes into the defender. If he develops a stiff arm where he can deflect the hits he has taken instead of absorbing them, well... I am already sky-high on AP but if develops a devastating stiff arm he could be phenominal. Peterson needs to do something to tweak his running style because he's not going to survive absorbing so many clean shot hits which leads to the next point.

4. Adrian Peterson's durability

The red flag of durability attached to Peterson springs from his running style. He is going to have to tweak his running style if he is to survive in the NFL. The Viking RBBC could shake out into a ying-yang New Orleans perfecty balanced luv affair to extend his playing career without him chaning anything with his running style but I have difficulty seeing the Vike RB situation having a smoothe transformation like the Saints at this time. Adrian is going to have to learn to not leave himself open to as many hard hits because he's going to get plenty of them. AP should be more and more effective as each game goes by but the durability issue could shift him off track unless he changes his running style. The NFL is a longer and more grueling than college and AP hasn't made it thru a college season without injury since he was a freshman. Peterson comes in with a shoulder injury and other concerns. Lower center of gravity and develop a devastating stiff arm ALA, LdT/LJ/Tiki would help preserve him and make him a monster IMHO.

5. Viking offensive line

Mt. McKinnie and Hutch form a dominating left side which probably already means a few bread-and-butter running plays are in the Viking playbook that hit the high notes of Bryant/Steve/Adrian. I see goal line carries and scores and drive sustaining running plays from this triade. Definitive positive and very complimentary of each other's skills.

6. Home games on carpet

Two-headed coin in that plaing home games on turf fits the upside of Adrian Peterson to a T but could have a nasty backspin withi his durability issue.

The above factors set him apart and will impact his stats. He'll probably start out slower till he proves he can handle blitz pick-ups. How Chester Taylor/Vikes coaching staff handles the transition is a sensative issue but Chester's last camp in Baltimore he had conflicts with the coaches who promptly sat him and gave Jamal Lewis most of the carries that season even after Jam was out all of that post season/training camp/preseason being incarcerated/injured. It could work out perfectly where Taylor gets the bulk of the early work and gets beat up as Tavaris goes thru growing pains. Then just as the Vikes make the switch Jackson begins to hit stride. I doubt its a perfect transition and that AP can easily change his running style so he might not be used that much early but could have a few big games later but then might get hurt.

180 carries

800 yards

4.44 yards per carry

7 rushing TDs

30 receptions

240 yards

8 yards per reception

3 receiving TDs

Considering all of the factors the bottom line looks like over a thousand combined yards with double didget TDs. This seems like a reasonable compromise and as an AP owner, I'll take it...

... err

... for a start.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

More interesting, to me, than total season numbers will be the 1st half/2nd half splits.

I think he has the potential to be a top 10 back the 2nd half of the year. But that doesn't necessarily mean he'll have great season totals, does it?

 

[bigliebdogg]

Chester Taylor was pretty good last year. What happened? What did I miss that the Vikings gave up on him so quick? Is it a guarantee that this thing starts as a RBBC and shifts to Peterson as the season wears on?? Is it possible Taylor holds him off? He had like a 95 yard touchdown run last year. Not sure Taylor's current ADP, but if its like in round 10+ isn't that great value, at least not worth the gamble?? (especially with lingering concerns about AP's health??)

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Chester Taylor was pretty good last year. What happened? What did I miss that the Vikings gave up on him so quick? Is it a guarantee that this thing starts as a RBBC and shifts to Peterson as the season wears on?? Is it possible Taylor holds him off? He had like a 95 yard touchdown run last year. Not sure Taylor's current ADP, but if its like in round 10+ isn't that great value, at least not worth the gamble?? (especially with lingering concerns about AP's health??)

The simple answer is that Chester Taylor's ceiling is merely "pretty good" where AP has the potential to be elite.If Taylor's there in the 10th, find another league to play in next year. They're both going to get good-to-great numbers this year.I wouldn't be surprised to see them both go over 1000 yards rushing this year.

 

[gianmarco]

Chester Taylor was pretty good last year. What happened?

ADP happened.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Chester Taylor was pretty good last year. What happened?

ADP happened.

I guess that's the simple answer!

 

[Sabertooth]

What did Minnesota do to adress their defensive backfield. Teams simply threw as they please on the Vikes last season. If that hasn't changed, the Vikes will be forced to pass more than they'd like.

 

[cscmtp]

well his value must be falling. He was just traded, along with Chester Taylor, for Wayne and Marshall in one of my 12 team dynasty leagues. I know, i know...

 

[Andy Dufresne]

What did Minnesota do to adress their defensive backfield. Teams simply threw as they please on the Vikes last season. If that hasn't changed, the Vikes will be forced to pass more than they'd like.

Nothing much. They added Mike Doss and Tank Williams is back from injury. Cedric Griffin is a year older and Fred Smoot is gone, which is addition by subtraction.The biggest problem with the Vikings defense wasn't the d-backs. It was the pass rush - which was non-existent. It remains to be seen if it's better this year, the major questions being can either Erasmus James come back from injury or can Ray Edwards be consistent enough.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

well his value must be falling. He was just traded, along with Chester Taylor, for Wayne and Marshall in one of my 12 team dynasty leagues. I know, i know...

Depending on the rosters, that may be an even trade.I'd rather have the AP/Taylor side of things though.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

The thing that cheers me up is looking at youtube highlights of AD and thinking about his tandem with SJax on my team.

 

[Phlash]

When I watch those highlights of ADP, it reminds me of a Maroney type with more bulk and power yet the same speed and elusiveness. Wow.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think it is interesting that no one on staff has AD ranked higher than 20.

I have not seen projections from other staff concerning this except for Dodds. He has the Vikings doing this:

500 pass attempts 421 rushing attempts (including 5 "others") so that means 921 total plays.

In 2006 the only teams to run 921 total plays or less were SF and the Bills. So I can only conclude that all of the staff see the Vikings offense being CRAP this year. And I can understand this position. However when one looks at the Viking offense from last year.. was it any good? Is this year really that much worse? To the tune of 104 total plays worse?

I don't really think so. And I also think AD is going to end up much higher than RB 20 as well as there not being a 50/50 RBBC type situation between AD and Taylor.

 

[King of the Jungle]

When I watch those highlights of ADP, it reminds me of a Maroney type with more bulk and power yet the same speed and elusiveness. Wow.

I realize that they are just highlights, but the guy runs like he has a gun to head to get into the endzone. He runs with such tenacity that I am concerned about staying injury free.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think it is interesting that no one on staff has AD ranked higher than 20.I have not seen projections from other staff concerning this except for Dodds. He has the Vikings doing this:500 pass attempts 421 rushing attempts (including 5 "others") so that means 921 total plays.In 2006 the only teams to run 921 total plays or less were SF and the Bills. So I can only conclude that all of the staff see the Vikings offense being CRAP this year. And I can understand this position. However when one looks at the Viking offense from last year.. was it any good? Is this year really that much worse? To the tune of 104 total plays worse?I don't really think so. And I also think AD is going to end up much higher than RB 20 as well as there not being a 50/50 RBBC type situation between AD and Taylor.

IMO, if the Vikings will lose plays on offense it would likely come from a decrease in passing attempts given their QB and WRs. The strength of their offense will most likely be RUNNING the ball, so I would tend to think that their number of carries would go UP not down. They had 442 rushing attempts last year and I think they would be able to bump that up by 10%.I still think we will see a RBBC and that ADP won't win the job outright. He may get the majority share later in the year, but early on I think we'll still see a fair amount of Taylor.And for the record I still don't know why this team never gave Mewelde Moore more of a shot, as he's done very well when given the opportunity.

 

[nygiants56]

I don't like this situation at all from a fantasy perspective. My guess is Childress with rely heavily on the running game and try to split carries between his two runners. I'm projecting roughly 400 carries between the two with a 60/40 split in Chester's favor. Both players should be good #3 RBs/spot starters.160 carries720 yards rushing5 rushing TDs20 receptions160 yards recieving1 recieving TD

Childress has always relied on some sort of RBBC in his coaching career, this situation should be no different. They have a lot of RB's on that roster. They pay Chester a lot of money, so you know they'll play him. Peterson has talent, no doubt..but this has RBBC written all over it at least for the next two years or so.that, and the fact that the guy is a injury waiting to happen...Caveat Emptor..

 

[Chunky Soup]

Childress has always relied on some sort of RBBC in his coaching career, this situation should be no different. They have a lot of RB's on that roster. They pay Chester a lot of money, so you know they'll play him.

Last year, there was no RBBC. So, as a HC, Childress has never had a RBBC. Also, going back to Philly days Childress was there when Westbrook was beginning to come out; he had medium talent spread across the board. This is hardly enough information to suggest that Childress will elect RBBC over one particular RB.As far as the money, this is a very overrated part of football. Money doesn't guarantee Chester playing, at all. How about you look at, as Yudkin has pointed out, NE salary situation:2007 Salaries:Maroney $360,000Morris $900,000Faulk $1.9 million

 

[cstu]

I think it is interesting that no one on staff has AD ranked higher than 20.I have not seen projections from other staff concerning this except for Dodds. He has the Vikings doing this:500 pass attempts 421 rushing attempts (including 5 "others") so that means 921 total plays.In 2006 the only teams to run 921 total plays or less were SF and the Bills. So I can only conclude that all of the staff see the Vikings offense being CRAP this year. And I can understand this position. However when one looks at the Viking offense from last year.. was it any good? Is this year really that much worse? To the tune of 104 total plays worse?I don't really think so. And I also think AD is going to end up much higher than RB 20 as well as there not being a 50/50 RBBC type situation between AD and Taylor.

IMO, if the Vikings will lose plays on offense it would likely come from a decrease in passing attempts given their QB and WRs. The strength of their offense will most likely be RUNNING the ball, so I would tend to think that their number of carries would go UP not down. They had 442 rushing attempts last year and I think they would be able to bump that up by 10%.I still think we will see a RBBC and that ADP won't win the job outright. He may get the majority share later in the year, but early on I think we'll still see a fair amount of Taylor.And for the record I still don't know why this team never gave Mewelde Moore more of a shot, as he's done very well when given the opportunity.

I still think they made a mistake taking AP over Jamaal Anderson. I don't see how they are going to win that many games by grinding it out on offense and then get beaten in the air on defense because they can't pressure the QB.

 

[dparker713]

Peterson is the most talented runner I've ever seen in college. He's got incredible power and speed and great vision and balance. The only concern is health and the pathetic players at the skill positions in Minnesota. For those reasons, I think his TD total will be a bit low relative to his production, but he's gonna rack up the yards.

He's just a special talent. Before training camp closes, he'll be able to do everything Chester Taylor can do, but he'll do it better and he'll be able to do things no other back in the league can do.

304 carries

1459 yards (4.8 ypc)

10 TD

30 receptions

228 yards (7.6 ypr)

1 TD

 

[Biabreakable]

I think it is interesting that no one on staff has AD ranked higher than 20.

I have not seen projections from other staff concerning this except for Dodds. He has the Vikings doing this:

500 pass attempts 421 rushing attempts (including 5 "others") so that means 921 total plays.

In 2006 the only teams to run 921 total plays or less were SF and the Bills. So I can only conclude that all of the staff see the Vikings offense being CRAP this year. And I can understand this position. However when one looks at the Viking offense from last year.. was it any good? Is this year really that much worse? To the tune of 104 total plays worse?

I don't really think so. And I also think AD is going to end up much higher than RB 20 as well as there not being a 50/50 RBBC type situation between AD and Taylor.

IMO, if the Vikings will lose plays on offense it would likely come from a decrease in passing attempts given their QB and WRs. The strength of their offense will most likely be RUNNING the ball, so I would tend to think that their number of carries would go UP not down. They had 442 rushing attempts last year and I think they would be able to bump that up by 10%.I still think we will see a RBBC and that ADP won't win the job outright. He may get the majority share later in the year, but early on I think we'll still see a fair amount of Taylor.

And for the record I still don't know why this team never gave Mewelde Moore more of a shot, as he's done very well when given the opportunity.

Well a 10% increase from last year would be 44 more rushing attempts so 486 total rushes if this ends up being correct. I think it could possible be more than that depending on the effectivness of the carries. So you are seeing more rushing attempts than Dodds and I agree with that assesment. As I stated upthread Chester was ok but did not rip off many explosive runs, somthing I think Peterson will do with more regularity than Taylor is capable of and that in turn will lead to more carries for Peterson. Because of AD's power I expect him to have more effective runs on early downs than Taylors 3YPC also and this will lead to more sustained drives by running the ball. As I also said above the Vikings were not very effective on 3rd down last year. I think Peterson will increase thier efficiency not decrease it. We would have to see a decrease in offensive effectivness for the Vikings to have less total plays from scrimage. I am not seeing this WR group or the QB as being worse than what the Vikings had last year. Lets be honest the viking passing game was not good last season so it does not seem to me that they will be 100 some plays worse than last year.

The tunovers could be a key factor in this of course and the Vikings were high in turnovers for and against last year so if that flips out of the Vikings favor in 2007 then they may lose total offensive plays because of it. However with an even more controled offense by running the ball I am not really seeing that happening. Johnson threw a lot of interceptions last year so how will rookie Jackson make them worse in this regard?

Jackson is better running the ball also and that should lead to more rushing attempts and 1st downs than the Vikings had with Johnson at QB last year as well.

I am not seeing a full blown RBBC between AD and Taylor either I think the split will be more 60-65% in Petersons favor for reasons stated above and the end result I believe will have AD finishing higher than RB 20 in 2007.

 

[Penguin]

I think it's going to be a fairly even split between AP & Chester for the first three games or so and then Peterson will take over as the feature back. I see the following stat line for AP at the end of the year...

250 rushes for 1100 yards 4.4 yds/carry & 8 rushing TD's. 25 receptions for 175 yards and 1 TD

I think Chester Taylor ends up with something close to

125 rushes for 500 yards & 2 TD's. 30 receptions for 225 yards

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I have a question. In the NFL has there ever been a situation where a rookie running back came to a team that already had a 1000+ yard running back and then went on to becoming a 1000 yard back that same season.

Here's an example of what I'm talking about. Let's say one season Player A rushes for over 1000 yards for a team last season. The next season the team goes on to draft another running back who I'll call Player B. What i'm asking is has there ever been a situation in which Player B (for lack of a better term) overthrew Player A relegating him to the bench and then going on to rush for 1000 yards himself? So far I could find only one with Anthony Thomas (1183) overthrowing James Allen (1120)

Now I know some people are going to bring up Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, and Dominic Rhodes as such players. It's important to note however that they became starters in their rookie seasons because of injury not because they necessarily won the starting job.

What I'm getting at is that people may be jumping the gun assuming that Adrian Peterson will have a major impact this season with a proven running back in Chester Taylor still in the fold. If you'll remember players such as Shaun Alexander, Steven Jackson, and Deuce Mc Allister did next to nothing their rookie seasons. All of those players had capable running backs starting ahead of them (well maybe not Jackson as Faulk was done by the 2004 season).

I could see Adrian Peterson not being much of a factor at all this season and being incredibly overvalued and vice versa with Chester Taylor being highly undervalued. It's tough projecting for Peterson because of that but if he rushes for over 1000 yards and Chester Taylor isn't injured I'll be very surprised.

 

[Penguin]

I have a question. In the NFL has there ever been a situation where a rookie running back came to a team that already had a 1000+ yard running back and then went on to becoming a 1000 yard back that same season. Here's an example of what I'm talking about. Let's say one season Player A rushes for over 1000 yards for a team last season. The next season the team goes on to draft another running back who I'll call Player B. What i'm asking is has there ever been a situation in which Player B (for lack of a better term) overthrew Player A relegating him to the bench and then going on to rush for 1000 yards himself? So far I could find only one with Anthony Thomas (1183) overthrowing James Allen (1120)Now I know some people are going to bring up Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, and Dominic Rhodes as such players. It's important to note however that they became starters in their rookie seasons because of injury not because they necessarily won the starting job. What I'm getting at is that people may be jumping the gun assuming that Adrian Peterson will have a major impact this season with a proven running back in Chester Taylor still in the fold. If you'll remember players such as Shaun Alexander, Steven Jackson, and Deuce Mc Allister did next to nothing their rookie seasons. All of those players had capable running backs starting ahead of them (well maybe not Jackson as Faulk was done by the 2004 season).I could see Adrian Peterson not being much of a factor at all this season and being incredibly overvalued and vice versa with Chester Taylor being highly undervalued. It's tough projecting for Peterson because of that but if he rushes for over 1000 yards and Chester Taylor isn't injured I'll be very surprised.

This doesn't fit your scenerio exactly but in 2002 Travis Henry ran for 1400 yds and Buffalo decided to draft Willis McGahee in '03. Henry ran for 1350 in '03 while Willis didn't play. In '04 McGahee ran for 1100+

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Yeah that situation was different in that Willis McGahee was hurt and played 0 snaps in his rookie season. Perhaps that was because the Bills knew what they had with Travis Henry. Had he not been on the team would Buffalo have put more pressure on McGahee to take the field in 2003? We'll never know.

That does kind of support my argument essentially that while a proven running back is on the team the rookie rb is more likely to have to "wait their turn" so to speak in order to become the primary ball carrier. Adrian Peterson is recovering from his collarbone injury and while that's not nearly as devastating an injury like McGahee suffered (three torn knee ligaments), I could see the Vikings limiting his carries and not putting so much pressure on him to have a ton of carries his rookie season.

 

[LHUCKS]

Looks like there are a lot of hopeful Peterson dynasty owners in here.

 

[dparker713]

I have a question. In the NFL has there ever been a situation where a rookie running back came to a team that already had a 1000+ yard running back and then went on to becoming a 1000 yard back that same season.

Here's an example of what I'm talking about. Let's say one season Player A rushes for over 1000 yards for a team last season. The next season the team goes on to draft another running back who I'll call Player B. What i'm asking is has there ever been a situation in which Player B (for lack of a better term) overthrew Player A relegating him to the bench and then going on to rush for 1000 yards himself? So far I could find only one with Anthony Thomas (1183) overthrowing James Allen (1120)

Now I know some people are going to bring up Olandis Gary, Mike Anderson, and Dominic Rhodes as such players. It's important to note however that they became starters in their rookie seasons because of injury not because they necessarily won the starting job.

What I'm getting at is that people may be jumping the gun assuming that Adrian Peterson will have a major impact this season with a proven running back in Chester Taylor still in the fold. If you'll remember players such as Shaun Alexander, Steven Jackson, and Deuce Mc Allister did next to nothing their rookie seasons. All of those players had capable running backs starting ahead of them (well maybe not Jackson as Faulk was done by the 2004 season).

I could see Adrian Peterson not being much of a factor at all this season and being incredibly overvalued and vice versa with Chester Taylor being highly undervalued. It's tough projecting for Peterson because of that but if he rushes for over 1000 yards and Chester Taylor isn't injured I'll be very surprised.

All 3 of those were drafted in the 20s. AP was drafted 7th. The only similarity I see is that I dont think the Vikings expect AP to be there at 7 anymore than the Saints expected to see McAllister at 23. And its not like Chester posted a fantastic year. He complied a pedestrian 4.0 ypc and showed little explosiveness. Chester Taylor is a mediocre back, so I dont see him as significant competition considering what Ive seen out of AP.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I'll be the first to admit that Chester Taylor isn't a great running back. He's a good running back though who averaged over 100 total yards a game last season. There are only a handful of rbs in the league who can lay claim to that distinction. He proved that he can handle the workload (he did complain of "body soreness" later in the season) by averaging over 20 carries a game. He played pretty well on a team that was just abysmal offensively.

While Adrian Peterson may have more raw talent than Chester Taylor (which remains to be seen to be honest) he doesn't necessarily have the skills and the experience of Taylor. NFL coaches are loyal to a fault when it comes to productive veteran players so I hardly see a scenario where Chester Taylor isn't a factor of all this season. If I had to bet on who the better fantasy player is this season in terms of value and overall production I have to go with Taylor.

I don't think that where a player was drafted matters as to how he will be utilized. If you remember in 2005 3 running backs were drafted with the 1st 5 picks (Carnell Williams, Ronnie Brown, Cedric Benson). Williams was the only one of the three to be the primary ball carrier for his team during his rookie season. What that means for Adrian Peterson is that he's going to have to earn his spot as the starting running back regardless of his draft position. It won't be given to him.

 

[FunkyPlutos]

When I watch those highlights of ADP, it reminds me of a Maroney type with more bulk and power yet the same speed and elusiveness. Wow.

I realize that they are just highlights, but the guy runs like he has a gun to head to get into the endzone. He runs with such tenacity that I am concerned about staying injury free.

Is this supposed to be a bad thing?

 

[TitusIII]

I think the Vikings know 2007 is a rebuilding year, and I believe they will limit AD's carries as a result(To protect the investment, so to speak). Why burn out AD when you are paying CT #1 money?

150 carries

675 rushing yards

6 rushing TD's

10 receptions

100 yards

1 TD

Great dynasty pick, wouldn't touch him before round 5 in a re-draft, however.

 

[Routilla]

I think the Vikings know 2007 is a rebuilding year, and I believe they will limit AD's carries as a result(To protect the investment, so to speak). Why burn out AD when you are paying CT #1 money?150 carries675 rushing yards6 rushing TD's10 receptions100 yards 1 TDGreat dynasty pick, wouldn't touch him before round 5 in a re-draft, however.

 

[FunkyPlutos]

I think the Vikings know 2007 is a rebuilding year, and I believe they will limit AD's carries as a result(To protect the investment, so to speak). Why burn out AD when you are paying CT #1 money?150 carries675 rushing yards6 rushing TD's10 receptions100 yards 1 TDGreat dynasty pick, wouldn't touch him before round 5 in a re-draft, however.

People need to realize that Chester is NOT getting #1 money!!