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Player Spotlight: Andre Johnson (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Andre Johnson, WR, Houston Texans

Player Page Link: Andre Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
STUD.

Andre Johnson's fortunes will rise and fall with Matt Schaub's health. Schaub has yet to play a full year as a starter, logging 11 games played in each of the last two seasons.

AJ was plenty good with or without Schaub the last two seasons:

with Schaub: 15.5 games, 107 rec., 1609 yards, 11 TDs (6.9/104/.71 per game) projects to 110/1660/11

without Schaub: 9.5 games, 68 rec., 817 yards, 6 TDs (7.1/86/.63 per game) projects to 114/1376/10

Great numbers either way.... HOWEVER, Dan Orlovsky is replacing Sage Rosenfels as Houston's QB2. Rosenfels was decently productive when he started: 260 yards and a TD per game last season. Orlovsky wasn't terrible in Detroit in 2008, putting up about 200 yards and a TD per game, but he seems to be a downgrade from Rosenfels.

All that being said, injuries are not very predictable.

I think AJ will come back to Earth a bit this year in terms of catches and yards, but he should get more TDs. A healthy Schaub has a very good chance at putting up more than the 21 passing TDs Houston had last year, and I don't expect Kevin Walter to match AJ in TDs again.... ever again.

99 catches, 1350 yards, 11 TDs.

Good for top 5 WR.

 
Guy has more game logs of 7-10 catch games over the past 2-3 seaosns than just about anybody. Guy is total money on the field and Schaub can exploit him all day long. Houston is going to shock a lot of people this year and AJ will be int he middle of it all.

If healthy for all 16 games...100/1350/8

Can't explain why he doesn't hit paydirt more often but you have to love this guy.

 
Guy has more game logs of 7-10 catch games over the past 2-3 seaosns than just about anybody. Guy is total money on the field and Schaub can exploit him all day long. Houston is going to shock a lot of people this year and AJ will be int he middle of it all. If healthy for all 16 games...100/1350/8Can't explain why he doesn't hit paydirt more often but you have to love this guy.
I agree, this guy is a stud when he plays..Houston is going to be a playoff team in '09, and AJ will be a huge part of that. he might do even better than your projections, with a full 16-games of Matt Shaub under center, and a potent rushing attack led by Slaton, a top-tier TE in Daniels, this Houston offense is going to be one of the NFL's best in 2009.110/1450/10 :coffee:
 
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Only question mark is....can he stay healthy for 16 games? If so, the sky is the limit for AJ......he's absolutely huge in PPR leagues. Could end up the #1WR in PPR leagues at years end. I wouldn't be surprised if he comes close to 120 receptions.

In non PPR leagues, he's still a top tier WR, but won't compete for the #1WR due to not being a big touchdown producer.

105 rec, 1390 rec yds, 9 TD

 
Over the past 3 years, AJ has AVERAGED 6.78 receptions, 87.14 receiving yards, 0.512 TD per game.

Across a full season, that works out to 104-1394-8 over a full season. Unless you think he will get hurt, I don't see how you can project him for much less than that . . .

 
Johnson has good size and is a blazer, and he can also make the great catch. Andre has all the tools and has finally started to translate that into big numbers. Some say he is not a big touchdown producer, but I point to 2007 when he had 8 TD in 9 games and had he played those other 7 games surely would have had 11-14 touchdowns for the season. This offense will be potent this year and the team will look to do great things. This could a HUGE season for Andre.

105 - 1470 - 11

 
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I think that the Texans become the next elite offense NFL & FF, so it makes sense that AJ's TD's will go up. Even if the whole offense does not reach elite status you have to believe that the 'STUD AJ" will hit paydirt more often.

 
I dont think a whole lot needs to be said about this guy.

110-1500-11 I think he'll put up his best stats yet.

 
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Andre Johnson has missed only ten games in six NFL seasons, but because seven of those were in 07, he seems to carry the injury prone label. He is an awesome athlete, 6-2 and 220, an excellent leaper and he also has speed and moves. In short, he should be at or near the top of the WR rankings in 09.

In 06 and 08, he played all 16 games and averaged 168 targets, 109 receptions 1361 yards and 7 TDs. His ypc has climbed in his last two seasons and I expect it to remain in the neighborhood of 14.0. I think that the Texans will continue to seek to establish the pass to use the run rather than the other way around. They do not yet have a solid short yardage rushing attack and will seek to operate their entire offense in a quick strike spread them out fashion. I think that AJ is their most elite weapon and they will continue to go to him.

Andre Johnson 165 targets 108 catches 1512 yards and 10 TDs

 
He's simply a stud and he should finish the season as a top 5 WR. His achilles heel however, is the health of Matt Schaub.

110 receptions 1450 yds 11 TDs assuming (hoping) Schaub stays healthy this season.

No, I'm not taking the time to undergo risk analysis and adjust stats for any potential missed games by Schaub. If you draft AJ, just cross your fingers.

 
In my main league I'm targeting him at the 12-13 turn. I already have MJD as a keeper.

Anyway, I'm going 100-105 catches, 10 TDs, around 1350-1400 yards. IMO, there are definately red flags with his and his QB's health. However, if he puts up 16 games when both he and Schaub healthy, watch out.

 
He's simply a stud and he should finish the season as a top 5 WR. His achilles heel however, is the health of Matt Schaub.110 receptions 1450 yds 11 TDs assuming (hoping) Schaub stays healthy this season.No, I'm not taking the time to undergo risk analysis and adjust stats for any potential missed games by Schaub. If you draft AJ, just cross your fingers.
I'll save you the trouble. Over the past two years with and without Schaub:16 games with:6.9 receptions-104.2 yards-0.69 TD9 games without:7.2 receptions-84.3 yards-0.56 TD
 
He's simply a stud and he should finish the season as a top 5 WR. His achilles heel however, is the health of Matt Schaub.110 receptions 1450 yds 11 TDs assuming (hoping) Schaub stays healthy this season.No, I'm not taking the time to undergo risk analysis and adjust stats for any potential missed games by Schaub. If you draft AJ, just cross your fingers.
I'll save you the trouble. Over the past two years with and without Schaub:16 games with:6.9 receptions-104.2 yards-0.69 TD9 games without:7.2 receptions-84.3 yards-0.56 TD
I wouldn't worry if Rosenfels were still the backup. He's in Minnesota and Orlovsky is the new backup.
 
He's simply a stud and he should finish the season as a top 5 WR. His achilles heel however, is the health of Matt Schaub.110 receptions 1450 yds 11 TDs assuming (hoping) Schaub stays healthy this season.No, I'm not taking the time to undergo risk analysis and adjust stats for any potential missed games by Schaub. If you draft AJ, just cross your fingers.
I'll save you the trouble. Over the past two years with and without Schaub:16 games with:6.9 receptions-104.2 yards-0.69 TD9 games without:7.2 receptions-84.3 yards-0.56 TD
I wouldn't worry if Rosenfels were still the backup. He's in Minnesota and Orlovsky is the new backup.
Orlovsky did not exactly kill Calvin Johnson last year in a much worse overall situation. Rosenfels was not considered even an average back-up until he got to Houston. If anything, Andre Johnson will help Orlovsky more than Orlovsky hurts Andre Johnson.
 
I'm not all that worried about Schaub missing a couple of games potentially. AJ's talent can overcome much of that... he'll get his.

Overall, I see another big season from him:

Recs: 97

Yds: 1310

TDs: 8

 
He's simply a stud and he should finish the season as a top 5 WR. His achilles heel however, is the health of Matt Schaub.

110 receptions 1450 yds 11 TDs assuming (hoping) Schaub stays healthy this season.

No, I'm not taking the time to undergo risk analysis and adjust stats for any potential missed games by Schaub. If you draft AJ, just cross your fingers.
I'll save you the trouble. Over the past two years with and without Schaub:16 games with:

6.9 receptions-104.2 yards-0.69 TD

9 games without:

7.2 receptions-84.3 yards-0.56 TD
I tried saving everybody the trouble... about 12 posts prior. :)
 
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Anyone else think Andre is a better bet at WR than Fitz or Moss? At this point, I tend to think hes the #1 WR and a top 5 player overall.

 
Anyone else think Andre is a better bet at WR than Fitz or Moss? At this point, I tend to think hes the #1 WR and a top 5 player overall.
I know he's the first WR gone in my PPR redraft league. The guy at #2 was thinking about getting him, but traded down to #9 thinking he would slip there and he'd get another great WR after the turn, but little did he know the guy at #3 wants him, and #6 will take him if he's there. Not only that, Moss is likely to go #7, and Fitz is going to go #8.. so he really screwed himself.
 
Anyone else think Andre is a better bet at WR than Fitz or Moss? At this point, I tend to think hes the #1 WR and a top 5 player overall.
In PPR, Andre Johnson might be able to hang with Randy Moss in fantasy scoring. In non-PPR formats, Moss just catches way too many more TD's than Andre Johnson and as such Randy is the more valuable of the two. In the 2007 23-TD rec. record season when he finished WR1, he had 98 receptions, which is not at all that slouchy in PPR format.Brady and Moss look to be picking up where they left off in 2007 before the injury of 2008. Moss looks as though he will be the top fantasy WR this year.
 

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