Player Spotlight: Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Antonio Brown, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Player Page Link: Antonio Brown Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections
  

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
  

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Gawain]

Guy broke some hearts last year. The Wallace holdout, Brown's 2011 campaign and a 4000 yard passer in Roethlisberger were supposed to equal fantasy success for Brown. Instead, Ben missed three games, Wallace still exceeded Brown in yards and Brown saw more than a 4 yard decline in his YPC. Brown ended up clocking in as WR 40. Now Wallace has moved on and Brown is expected to take over the leading receiver duties. Brown isn't a physically dominant outside receiver and doesn't have the blistering speed Wallace did.

I think that Pittsburgh will likely throw for 4K yards this year as long as Roeth stays mostly healthy, but it's tough to predict a top 12 fantasy receiver for the team. I think Brown's YPC will end up closer to 2012 than 2011 without a dominant deep threat to draw attention away. If Miller is healthy, he'll also see quite a few targets.

120 targets, 70 receptions, 875 yards, 6 TDs

 

[LTF]

Guy broke some hearts last year. The Wallace holdout, Brown's 2011 campaign and a 4000 yard passer in Roethlisberger were supposed to equal fantasy success for Brown. Instead, Ben missed three games, Wallace still exceeded Brown in yards and Brown saw more than a 4 yard decline in his YPC. Brown ended up clocking in as WR 40. Now Wallace has moved on and Brown is expected to take over the leading receiver duties. Brown isn't a physically dominant outside receiver and doesn't have the blistering speed Wallace did.

I think that Pittsburgh will likely throw for 4K yards this year as long as Roeth stays mostly healthy, but it's tough to predict a top 12 fantasy receiver for the team. I think Brown's YPC will end up closer to 2012 than 2011 without a dominant deep threat to draw attention away. If Miller is healthy, he'll also see quite a few targets.

120 targets, 70 receptions, 875 yards, 6 TDs

Every receiver in Pittsburgh saw a decline in their YPC last year... it was a result of Haley's short-passing offense that was installed.

Brown also basically missed a quarter of the season last year. Went down in the first half of the Giants game with a high ankle sprain and then set out of the next three. Had he stayed healthy he would have led the Steelers both in yards and receptions. Brown was the primary receiver in Pittsburgh last year.

His 16 game averages last year were: 85 catches, 1024 yards, and 7 TDs. If you think the high ankle sprain last year was a fluke and that he'll stay healthy, I don't see any reason why he won't produce just as good if not better #s than these.

 

[Beerguzzler]

I think it's a legit question whether he can be the go to guy for an offense and the corresponding coverage that comes with that distinction.

76 1050 6 TD

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Guy broke some hearts last year. The Wallace holdout, Brown's 2011 campaign and a 4000 yard passer in Roethlisberger were supposed to equal fantasy success for Brown. Instead, Ben missed three games, Wallace still exceeded Brown in yards and Brown saw more than a 4 yard decline in his YPC. Brown ended up clocking in as WR 40. Now Wallace has moved on and Brown is expected to take over the leading receiver duties. Brown isn't a physically dominant outside receiver and doesn't have the blistering speed Wallace did.

I think that Pittsburgh will likely throw for 4K yards this year as long as Roeth stays mostly healthy, but it's tough to predict a top 12 fantasy receiver for the team. I think Brown's YPC will end up closer to 2012 than 2011 without a dominant deep threat to draw attention away. If Miller is healthy, he'll also see quite a few targets.

120 targets, 70 receptions, 875 yards, 6 TDs

For what it's worth, the guys at Football Outsiders had a rousing discussion on how exactly to classify him and whether he qualifies as a top-half WR1 (i.e. "elite"). This is noteworthy primarily because Brown's ADP as of the SSLs was WR24 - at least a round or two behind anyone else who'd be clearly in the "elite" discussion.

I have my own set of concerns about whether Brown is ready to be a true top-half WR1. He's far from a physical freak and doesn't have game-changing speed. On the other hand, he's a polished route-runner with good hands and, unlike guys like Harvin or Wallace, isn't going to have to adjust to a new QB or offensive system; to the contrary, with the latter gone and Miller's status uncertain, he should be Big Ben's favorite target by a wide margin. Brown got 106 targets last year (in 13 games), Wallace 119. If Brown picks up even a third of those, you don't have to assume great leaps in either his catch rate or his YPC to make the case for a top-10 season. If this was a guy going at WR12 or 14, that by itself wouldn't be reason enough to grab him. But at WR24 or thereabouts, it seems to me you're looking at lots of potential upside with minimal risk. In 3-WR leagues especially, those are the kinds of guys that can win you championships.

I learned years ago that I'd rather have the #3 WR on a team with an elite QB than the #1 WR on a team with a bad one. But the #1 WR on a team with a good QB is far preferable to either.

Projection: 144 targets, 91 rec., 1,133 yds (12.4 avg), 7 TD

 

[doowain]

Guy broke some hearts last year. The Wallace holdout, Brown's 2011 campaign and a 4000 yard passer in Roethlisberger were supposed to equal fantasy success for Brown. Instead, Ben missed three games, Wallace still exceeded Brown in yards and Brown saw more than a 4 yard decline in his YPC. Brown ended up clocking in as WR 40. Now Wallace has moved on and Brown is expected to take over the leading receiver duties. Brown isn't a physically dominant outside receiver and doesn't have the blistering speed Wallace did.

I think that Pittsburgh will likely throw for 4K yards this year as long as Roeth stays mostly healthy, but it's tough to predict a top 12 fantasy receiver for the team. I think Brown's YPC will end up closer to 2012 than 2011 without a dominant deep threat to draw attention away. If Miller is healthy, he'll also see quite a few targets.

120 targets, 70 receptions, 875 yards, 6 TDs

For what it's worth, the guys at Football Outsiders had a rousing discussion on how exactly to classify him and whether he qualifies as a top-half WR1 (i.e. "elite"). This is noteworthy primarily because Brown's ADP as of the SSLs was WR24 - at least a round or two behind anyone else who'd be clearly in the "elite" discussion.

I have my own set of concerns about whether Brown is ready to be a true top-half WR1. He's far from a physical freak and doesn't have game-changing speed. On the other hand, he's a polished route-runner with good hands and, unlike guys like Harvin or Wallace, isn't going to have to adjust to a new QB or offensive system; to the contrary, with the latter gone and Miller's status uncertain, he should be Big Ben's favorite target by a wide margin. Brown got 106 targets last year (in 13 games), Wallace 119. If Brown picks up even a third of those, you don't have to assume great leaps in either his catch rate or his YPC to make the case for a top-10 season. If this was a guy going at WR12 or 14, that by itself wouldn't be reason enough to grab him. But at WR24 or thereabouts, it seems to me you're looking at lots of potential upside with minimal risk. In 3-WR leagues especially, those are the kinds of guys that can win you championships.

I learned years ago that I'd rather have the #3 WR on a team with an elite QB than the #1 WR on a team with a bad one. But the #1 WR on a team with a good QB is far preferable to either.

Projection: 144 targets, 91 rec., 1,133 yds (12.4 avg), 7 TD

very

 

[JPeso]

85 catches / 1060 yards / 7 TD = 233 PPR / 14.6 PPR PPG

 

[s&m]

140+ targets, 87 catches, 1125 yds, 8tds, The Pittsburgh offense and Roeth at QB have always had viable wr's #1's . At worst I see Brown as a mid to top end #2 or low end #1. He is very underrated right now.

 

[FF Ninja]

As has been stated, the high ankle sprain kind of derailed his season. He was on pace for 144 targets if you extrapolate his 12 full games. I'm sure the offense will be clicking better this year. I'm not sure how much better, but they had to rush to learn Haley's offense last year and then Brown and Roethlisburger got hurt. It is a little troubling that he only had 1 TD in his first 7 games (injured in week 8).

But all in all, I think he's a very good deal at his current ADP of WR24. With the departure of Wallace and anticipated good health, I predict at least a slight bump in both targets and ypr. His catch rate was really good, but if improved chemistry/familiarity with the system leads to a better rate then his receptions could reach triple digits in 16 games.

150 targets x 62.5% = 94 receptions x 12.5 ypr = 1175 yds 8 TD

94 receptions feels insane, but they were on pace to throw the ball 594 times before Ben and Brown got injured. Perhaps the running game takes off this year and they don't have to throw as much, but 150 targets for the WR1 in this offense is very feasible.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Brown-Sanders-Wheaton would be a nice 3-4-5 combination behind Wallace and Miller, but Wallace is gone and Miller is ... who knows?

So I'm not at all sold on this trio as a 1-2-3 and I think there'll be a lack of big plays (with Roethlisberger's TD total potentially suffering). In PPR Brown will be OK, but I don't think he'll approach FF WR1 status and I wouldn't touch him in standard scoring at his current ADP.

Brown: 75-1013-4, ~13ppg, WR#meh

 

[Ghost Rider]

Should be interesting to see how this guy does not without a true number 1 WR to take some pressure off, but he should be really solid as a number 3 WR in most leagues, especially PPR leagues. He won't score a lot, but he will have a lot of 7-80/6-71-type games. If by chance he does suddenly figure out how to find the end zone, he could be a top 20 WR. But I am not counting on it. 7 TD catches so far on 151 receptions is pretty lame, so he appears to be a possession WR, albeit a very good one.

 

[cstu]

WR's performing better than Brown since week 3: Calvin and DT.

After this week it may only be Calvin.