Player Spotlight: Antonio Gates (1 Viewer)

[Tau837]

The bottom line is that I don't think anyone will find a valid comparison that can be used as a predictor.  And even if someone did find a couple, it would still be a sample set too small to be useful.

Look, I understand that Gates is a special player. But it's intellectually dishonest to discount all comparisons to changes in the situations of other TEs because they're not exactly like Gates' situation. Here's another: Ozzie Newsome had 89 receptions and 1001 yards in 1984 with Paul McDonald at QB. In 1985, with Bernie Kosar at QB (rated more highly than Rivers), Newsome had 62 receptions for 711 yards. In almost every example that can be found, a change in situation for a top TE resulted in a drop in production for that TE.

If you believe that Rivers will throw for 3500 yards and 27 TDs (which San Diego has done each of the past two years), it's possible to project 1000+ and 10+ for Gates. But it seems more prudent to project a drop in the passing numbers for both San Diego and Gates. I think you'll find the number of first-year starters who threw for 3500 and 27 is vanishingly small, even if they weren't rookies.

It's fine for us to disagree. I concede that you might come up with a few examples that are reasonable, but then you still have the small sample set problem.More importantly, when you have small sample sets, it affords you the ability to examine them individually, which IMO is always better than generalizing. With a large sample size, this is impractical. But with small sample sets, you can do this, which should result in a better ability to predict, which is what we're trying to do in this thread.

Please justify the bolded statement.

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

Trivia Question: In the history of the NFL, how many TE's have recorded 10 or more TD's for three consecutive seasons?

Answer: zero

Are you suggesting that the answer to that trivia question will always be 'zero'?

No. I am saying that it is a statisitical impossibility for Gates to achieve the feat this season.

Either you or I don't understand how to apply this term.

it's him, H.K. should be banned from ever using that term again.see also Tiki Barber

His Tiki prediction is pretty funny.

 

[Banger]

I think Gates will get his catches and his yards but the red zone looks at least early on may take a hit. I wouldn't be surprised if Marty leaned on LT more in the redzone which would impact Gates' #'s.

80-925-9

Still a great year and probably still the top TE.

 

[David Yudkin]

It doesn't matter to me if he finishes as the TE 1 or TE 3, the main point to consider is value based on his current ADP of 27 (TE 1).

I personally predicted:

850 yards and 7td's.

Let's even go so far as to say he finishes the year as the best TE.

Drafting him at or before his current ADP of 27 is a mistake in my opinion. I don't see as much value this year.

I'll be looking at getting either 2 RB's and 1 WR or 1 RB and 2 WR's with my first 3 picks.

Just as a comparison, if Gates had the numbers (850/7) suggested here, he would have been almost a clone of Todd Heap last year. In terms of overall value rankings, Heap ranked as the #24 player last year with those numbers.People tend to shrug off TE early and they normally are less risky than that third round RB, but many folks will disagree with me.

Up until last year when Tony Gonzalez dipped to 44th overall in value (again with 4 pts for passing TD), he was a great guy to take. From 1999 to 2004, his year end value ranking was 11, 8, 23, 27, 13, and 11.

Gates has also been a beast valuewise, ranking 8th in overal value the past 2 years.

Who you end up with as your RB2 or WR1/WR2 is another debate . . .

 

[CalBear]

For those clamoring for similar examples involving Top TE, I had this to add in one of the other Gates threads . . .

Todd Christensen was the #1 fantasy TE with Jim Plunkett and the Raiders switched to Marc Wilson who had played sparingly and Chistensen still was the #1 TE.

Ozzie Newsome was a Top 3 TE with Brian Sipe and utilized Paul McDonald at QB for a year. Newsome ranked 2nd.

Tony Gonzalez was the #1 TE with Elvis Grbac and was again with Trent Green.

Wesley Walls was Top 3 with Kerry Collins and Steve Beuerlein.

Keith Jackson was a Top 2 TE with Randall Cunningham and Jim McMahon in PHI.

Steve Jordan was Top 5 for several years with Tommy Kramer, Wade Wilson, and Rich Gannon.

I think you're not looking deeply enough at the data, and some of your examples are incorrect. Gonzalez was #1 under Grbac and again under Green, yes. But in 2000 under Grbac he had 1203/9, while in 2001 under Green he had 913/6, which is similar to the drop I'm predicting for Gates. It took three years to Gonzo to post anything near the numbers he did in 2000. (And Green was an established quality QB, unlike Rivers).

Similarly, when the Raiders shifted from Plunkett to Wilson, Christensen did remain as the #1 TE, but his numbers dropped from 1247/12 to 1007/7.

When Beurlein started 12 games in 1998, Walls dropped from 746/6 to 506/5.

Keith Jackson dropped from #2 to #5 when McMahon took over for Cunningham. Then he was #2 in Miami with Marino, and dropped to #5 again when Marino got hurt.

I think your examples bolster the idea that top TE production is fragile.

And as I mentioned above, if we open things up to a team's #1 receiver (at any position), I don't think we would see that player falling off a cliff with a newbie QB.

Recent examples of of the top of my head include:

Randy Moss

Chad Johnson

Torry Holt

Boldin/Fitzgerald

Hines Ward

Rod Smith

Joey Galloway

Etc.

Some of these guys switched QB mid season to relatively unknown QB commodites and still did not slow down.

My hypothesis (which I believe is borne out by the available data) is that TE production is more fragile than WR production. The situation where a TE is the team's #1 receiver is fairly rare in the NFL, and many different things can change it. A team's #1 WR will be in a pass pattern on virutally every passing play; not true even for Gates/Gonzo-class TEs. WR routes are cleaner; TEs usually have to fight off a blocker at the line (although this is somewhat mitigated for Gates/Gonzo types who sometimes line up in the slot). WR routes also tend to be quicker to develop.I think Gates may wind up as TE#1, but I think it's very unlikely he'll put up anything near 100 VBD points. Gonzo went from 114 to 55 VBD points when Green came in, though he remained as TE#1. The value differential will not be there for Gates this year, not at 3.03 where he's being selected.

 

[CalBear]

Just as a comparison, if Gates had the numbers (850/7) suggested here, he would have been almost a clone of Todd Heap last year. In terms of overall value rankings, Heap ranked as the #24 player last year with those numbers.

People tend to shrug off TE early and they normally are less risky than that third round RB, but many folks will disagree with me.

Up until last year when Tony Gonzalez dipped to 44th overall in value (again with 4 pts for passing TD), he was a great guy to take. From 1999 to 2004, his year end value ranking was 11, 8, 23, 27, 13, and 11.

Gates has also been a beast valuewise, ranking 8th in overal value the past 2 years.

I agree that in fantasy circles, TEs are generally undervalued relative to other positions. However, I think this year Gates is being overvalued relative to other TEs. Shockey and Gonzalez are being taken two full rounds later than Gates, and I have those three with similar production.

 

[H.K.]

it's him, H.K. should be banned from ever using that term again.

see also Tiki Barber

 

[Bankerguy]

Just as a comparison, if Gates had the numbers (850/7) suggested here, he would have been almost a clone of Todd Heap last year.  In terms of overall value rankings, Heap ranked as the #24 player last year with those numbers.

People tend to shrug off TE early and they normally are less risky than that third round RB, but many folks will disagree with me.

Up until last year when Tony Gonzalez dipped to 44th overall in value (again with 4 pts for passing TD), he was a great guy to take.  From 1999 to 2004, his year end value ranking was 11, 8, 23, 27, 13, and 11.

Gates has also been a beast valuewise, ranking 8th in overal value the past 2 years.

I agree that in fantasy circles, TEs are generally undervalued relative to other positions. However, I think this year Gates is being overvalued relative to other TEs. Shockey and Gonzalez are being taken two full rounds later than Gates, and I have those three with similar production.

That's what I was trying to get at.

 

[David Yudkin]

For those clamoring for similar examples involving Top TE, I had this to add in  one of the other Gates threads . . .

Todd Christensen was the #1 fantasy TE with Jim Plunkett and the Raiders switched to Marc Wilson who had played sparingly and Chistensen still was the #1 TE.

Ozzie Newsome was a Top 3 TE with Brian Sipe and utilized Paul McDonald at QB for a year. Newsome ranked 2nd.

Tony Gonzalez was the #1 TE with Elvis Grbac and was again with Trent Green.

Wesley Walls was Top 3 with Kerry Collins and Steve Beuerlein.

Keith Jackson was a Top 2 TE with Randall Cunningham and Jim McMahon in PHI.

Steve Jordan was Top 5 for several years with Tommy Kramer, Wade Wilson, and Rich Gannon.

I think you're not looking deeply enough at the data, and some of your examples are incorrect. Gonzalez was #1 under Grbac and again under Green, yes. But in 2000 under Grbac he had 1203/9, while in 2001 under Green he had 913/6, which is similar to the drop I'm predicting for Gates. It took three years to Gonzo to post anything near the numbers he did in 2000. (And Green was an established quality QB, unlike Rivers).

Similarly, when the Raiders shifted from Plunkett to Wilson, Christensen did remain as the #1 TE, but his numbers dropped from 1247/12 to 1007/7.

When Beurlein started 12 games in 1998, Walls dropped from 746/6 to 506/5.

Keith Jackson dropped from #2 to #5 when McMahon took over for Cunningham. Then he was #2 in Miami with Marino, and dropped to #5 again when Marino got hurt.

I think your examples bolster the idea that top TE production is fragile.

And as I mentioned above, if we open things up to a team's #1 receiver (at any position), I don't think we would see that player falling off a cliff with a newbie QB.

Recent examples of of the top of my head include:

Randy Moss

Chad Johnson

Torry Holt

Boldin/Fitzgerald

Hines Ward

Rod Smith

Joey Galloway

Etc.

Some of these guys switched QB mid season to relatively unknown QB commodites and still did not slow down.

My hypothesis (which I believe is borne out by the available data) is that TE production is more fragile than WR production. The situation where a TE is the team's #1 receiver is fairly rare in the NFL, and many different things can change it. A team's #1 WR will be in a pass pattern on virutally every passing play; not true even for Gates/Gonzo-class TEs. WR routes are cleaner; TEs usually have to fight off a blocker at the line (although this is somewhat mitigated for Gates/Gonzo types who sometimes line up in the slot). WR routes also tend to be quicker to develop.I think Gates may wind up as TE#1, but I think it's very unlikely he'll put up anything near 100 VBD points. Gonzo went from 114 to 55 VBD points when Green came in, though he remained as TE#1. The value differential will not be there for Gates this year, not at 3.03 where he's being selected.

That's the one thing that ww should be discussing is the relative value of the tight end in question moreso than the actual production dropoff. If in the examples cited PLAYER X lost 20% production wise but so did almost allother TE, then his relative value would remain the same.You and I are on the same page on this one. I, too, think Gates will likely remain the #1 TE this year but with lower numbers. I also think that on paper there appears to be more depth at TE that will be not too far removed from Gates' numbers. While the value threshold of TE 12 may be similarl, IMO there will be several guys in the middle that get closer to the top tier than in recent seasons.

Long story long, I have a hard time wanting to look at Gates in the late second/early third cause that's where I would have to take him. As I mentioned earlier, that still may be less risky than some of the other options available at that point, so while I wouldn't look for him there I also would not necessarily rule him out either.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

it's him, H.K. should be banned from ever using that term again.

see also Tiki Barber

And yet he has both players as keepers in our CHUG league. I think he does an excellent job of arguing against guys he owns, unlike most of us here.

 

[David Yudkin]

it's him, H.K. should be banned from ever using that term again.

see also Tiki Barber

And yet he has both players as keepers in our CHUG league. I think he does an excellent job of arguing against guys he owns, unlike most of us here.

I often argue both sides in the same thread. I've actually gotten emails/PMs from people where one person asks why I am so down on PLAYER X while the next guy agrees with me that PLAYER X will be huge. It's pretty funny sometimes.Last year I got people writing to me complaining that I MUST be a Cowboys hater because I was not agreeing that Julius Jones was a cinch Top 5 RB. Iheard about my comments on Jones from THIS THREAD and others like it.

The truth be told I am a Cowboys fan and even mention that in my FBG bio. Believe it or not, it is possible to have an unbiased opinion even if you are a homer.

(I reread that thread. Man, do I take heat when I have the minority opinion . . .)

 

[ConstruxBoy]

it's him, H.K. should be banned from ever using that term again.

see also Tiki Barber

And yet he has both players as keepers in our CHUG league. I think he does an excellent job of arguing against guys he owns, unlike most of us here.

I often argue both sides in the same thread. I've actually gotten emails/PMs from people where one person asks why I am so down on PLAYER X while the next guy agrees with me that PLAYER X will be huge. It's pretty funny sometimes.Last year I got people writing to me complaining that I MUST be a Cowboys hater because I was not agreeing that Julius Jones was a cinch Top 5 RB. Iheard about my comments on Jones from THIS THREAD and others like it.

The truth be told I am a Cowboys fan and even mention that in my FBG bio. Believe it or not, it is possible to have an unbiased opinion even if you are a homer.

(I reread that thread. Man, do I take heat when I have the minority opinion . . .)

A good lesson that I need to remember more often.

 

[Z-Dog]

QBs who sit their rookie year routinely outperform those who start immediately, and some come in and are immediate stars (recently, Carson Palmer, Tom Brady, Chad Pennington, Daunte Culpepper and Michael Vick all put up good-to-awesome stats in their first years as starters, after sitting one to two years).

]

but the best qb in the league, Peyton Manning, started right away and I'm not sure how pennington qualifies as a star

I'm nto sure about your point in Peyton Manning. Obviously, guys who start in their first year can go on to be amazing QBs. It's just that guys who sit for a year or two have far and away better stats, on the whole, than the stats of rookie QB starters. As for Chad Pennington, in his first year as a starter he led the league in passer rating and put up 2767 yards, 22 TDs and only 4 INTs in 12 games as a starter. I think that qualifies as good stats, and no fantasy player on the Jets suffered because they went from Testaverde to Pennington.

 

[BAT1man]

I see him showing very little drop off as I see Rivers putting up similar numbers as Brees last season. The Chargers have a much easier schedule this year and Gates has been doing much to improve on his #1 skills.

He is still the #1 option recieving option, on a team that had a top 5 offense last season and should again this season.

Don't sleep on Rivers or Gates.

I see something around:

91 catches, 1175 yards, 11 TDs

 

[H.K.]

it's him, H.K. should be banned from ever using that term again.

see also Tiki Barber

And yet he has both players as keepers in our CHUG league. I think he does an excellent job of arguing against guys he owns, unlike most of us here.

I take it you haven't read my Barber projection in his spotlight yet....

 

[ConstruxBoy]

it's him, H.K. should be banned from ever using that term again.

see also Tiki Barber

And yet he has both players as keepers in our CHUG league. I think he does an excellent job of arguing against guys he owns, unlike most of us here.

I take it you haven't read my Barber projection in his spotlight yet....

No I did and agree with your assessment. But we're you ripping them both last year as well?

 

[joffer]

it's him, H.K. should be banned from ever using that term again.

see also Tiki Barber

And yet he has both players as keepers in our CHUG league. I think he does an excellent job of arguing against guys he owns, unlike most of us here.

I take it you haven't read my Barber projection in his spotlight yet....

No I did and agree with your assessment. But we're you ripping them both last year as well?

just run a search on "statistical impossibility"

 

[ConstruxBoy]

it's him, H.K. should be banned from ever using that term again.

see also Tiki Barber

And yet he has both players as keepers in our CHUG league. I think he does an excellent job of arguing against guys he owns, unlike most of us here.

I take it you haven't read my Barber projection in his spotlight yet....

No I did and agree with your assessment. But we're you ripping them both last year as well?

just run a search on "statistical impossibility"

Well, I thought it was a statistical impossibility that a guy letting his two dogs manage his team could win a championship, but here we are.

 

[Musesboy]

Antonio Gates was not the clear number one option at TE this time last year, and Tony Gonzalez was rated ahead of him by many. After an outstanding season, he is now firmly established as the best player at his position.

Only 10 receivers had more targets than Gates last year, so it is not surprising that he managed to finish 10th among fantasy receivers with the WRs included. He also managed that after being suspended for the first game after holding out during the preseason.

Gates is the best receiver the Chargers have. McCardell is the top wide receiver, but he saw 32 less targets than Gates while playing a game more. The most impressive thing about Gates is that he has scored 23 TDs over the last two seasons, despite the presence of Tomlinson. Not every short yardage situation will end in a carry by Tomlinson.

The big change for Gates this year will be at QB. Philip Rivers has never started an NFL game and will take over from Drew Brees as the starter. The good news is that Rivers has had two years to absorb the offense, so he shouldn't struggle as much as a rookie would. In fact, Drew Brees had a reasonable season in his first year as the starter with 3284 passing yards and 17 TDs. Brees had only been with the team for a year when he became the starter so there is hope for Rivers.

I expect Gates to continue where he left off last year. He will still be the main target in the passing game. He may even have some improvement left in him, and he is yet to start 16 games in a season. He should be number one again.

Prediction

90 receptions 1125 yards 10 TDs

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

Antonio Gates was not the clear number one option at TE this time last year, and Tony Gonzalez was rated ahead of him by many. After an outstanding season, he is now firmly established as the best player at his position.

Only 10 receivers had more targets than Gates last year, so it is not surprising that he managed to finish 10th among fantasy points with the WRs included. He also managed that after being suspended for the first game after holding out during the preseason.

Gates is the best receiver the Chargers have. McCardell is the top wide receiver, but he saw 32 less targets than Gates while playing a game more. The most impressive thing about Gates is that he has scored 23 TDs over the last two seasons, despite the presence of Tomlinson. Not every short yardage situation will end in a carry by Tomlinson.

The big change for Gates this year will be at QB. Philip Rivers has never started an NFL game and will take over from Drew Brees as the starter. The good news is that Rivers has had two years to absorb the offense, so he shouldn't struggle as much as a rookie would. In fact, Drew Brees had a reasonable season in his first year as the starter with 3284 passing yards and 17 TDs. Brees had only been with the team for a year when he became the starter so there is hope for Rivers.

I expect Gates to continue where he left off last year. He will still be the main target in the passing game. He may even have some improvement left in him, and he is yet to start 16 games in a season. He should be number one again.

Prediction

90 receptions  1125 yards  10 TDs

This is the part of your post that is too much speculation for me. Rivers easily could favor getting the ball out to Eric Parker and McCardell more then Brees did.

 

[Musesboy]

This is the part of your post that is too much speculation for me. Rivers easily could favor getting the ball out to Eric Parker and McCardell more then Brees did.

Yep, it's all speculation at this point. Whenever there is a major change in personnel, there is always the possibility of a different focus. I chose to go with that view because I believe Gates to be the main receiving weapon on the team. Some QBs do seem to have their own favorite receiver, but Gates is such a good option that I think any QB would make him a prime target.

It's not just the QB either; the coaching staff will be the ones calling the plays. Rivers might adjust some of those plays on the fly but I still think Gates will get the biggest share of the targets by a big margin. Nobody knows for sure at this point so you could easily be right, but I am simply playing the odds.

 

[Shiver44]

I think some people are being too pessimistic regarding Rivers. He shouldn't be any worse than Brees. He is ultra talented, had an incredibly high "it" factor coming out of college, and has three years of absorbing the playbook. It shouldn't be that big of a drop off, if at all. Especially if you think like me, that Brees was the beneficiary of Gates, not the other way around.

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

I think some people are being too pessimistic regarding Rivers. He shouldn't be any worse than Brees. He is ultra talented, had an incredibly high "it" factor coming out of college, and has three years of absorbing the playbook. It shouldn't be that big of a drop off, if at all. Especially if you think like me, that Brees was the beneficiary of Gates, not the other way around.

Oh I definitly think Brees took advantage of Gates talents, not the other way around. And if you look at my Gates (and Rivers) projections, I think both are going to do pretty well, in fact I still have Gates the #1 TE.I just think Gates is going to come down a notch from his incredible year last season for a variety of reasons: Rivers inexperience will have to play some role, Gates facing more double teams then ever, the use of LT on check downs more often this year, and lastly and most importantly the emergence of Eric Parker.

 

[H.K.]

Well, I thought it was a statistical impossibility that a guy letting his two dogs manage his team could win a championship, but here we are.

Those aren't just any dogs....they are Booze Hounds!FWIW, you should consider giving JoPa some authority this season. He's off the IR and has a linebacker's mentality, probably would do a lot to help get the Paper Shredder organization in the right mind set this year.

 

[Bankerguy]

Just a general question. Is Gates hyped because he is a good person, and story? I have seen a couple projections here for a better year than last year. Why?

 

[Z-Dog]

Antonio Gates was not the clear number one option at TE this time last year, and Tony Gonzalez was rated ahead of him by many. After an outstanding season, he is now firmly established as the best player at his position.

Only 10 receivers had more targets than Gates last year, so it is not surprising that he managed to finish 10th among fantasy points with the WRs included. He also managed that after being suspended for the first game after holding out during the preseason.

Gates is the best receiver the Chargers have. McCardell is the top wide receiver, but he saw 32 less targets than Gates while playing a game more. The most impressive thing about Gates is that he has scored 23 TDs over the last two seasons, despite the presence of Tomlinson. Not every short yardage situation will end in a carry by Tomlinson.

The big change for Gates this year will be at QB. Philip Rivers has never started an NFL game and will take over from Drew Brees as the starter. The good news is that Rivers has had two years to absorb the offense, so he shouldn't struggle as much as a rookie would. In fact, Drew Brees had a reasonable season in his first year as the starter with 3284 passing yards and 17 TDs. Brees had only been with the team for a year when he became the starter so there is hope for Rivers.

I expect Gates to continue where he left off last year. He will still be the main target in the passing game. He may even have some improvement left in him, and he is yet to start 16 games in a season. He should be number one again.

Prediction

90 receptions 1125 yards 10 TDs

This is the part of your post that is too much speculation for me. Rivers easily could favor getting the ball out to Eric Parker and McCardell more then Brees did.

Look, everything is speculation right now. But part of the issue of preference is personnel. The system in SD favors the TE, and that's not a minor point. Getting a TE out in deep pass patterns is not a trivial aspect of an offense. It means that QB protection falls to the FB, it often means two-TE sets, and it usually means splitting the TE out in some sets. Essentially, the extra production out of the TE comes at the expense of the FB, and WR2 and WR3. While Kennan McCardell is a consummate pro, there's no way that the SD offense is going to stop calling plays to Gates, and if you believe in Gates' talen at getting open and at making tough catches, it's hard to believe that Rivers will not continue to target Gates about as frequently as Brees did. Even if he would prefer some otehr WR, when it's 3rd and 8, and Gates is the only WR running a pattern that's deeper than 8 yards, you better believe that Rivers will try to get it to him. It's not like some other player is going to start running seam routes all of a sudden. I guess that the uniqueness of the TE position makes me more skeptical of a sudden target change.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Well, I thought it was a statistical impossibility that a guy letting his two dogs manage his team could win a championship, but here we are.

Those aren't just any dogs....they are Booze Hounds!FWIW, you should consider giving JoPa some authority this season. He's off the IR and has a linebacker's mentality, probably would do a lot to help get the Paper Shredder organization in the right mind set this year.

yeah, but I already have Larry Johnson as a keeper and you know JoePa: he'd probably try to sit LJ for Eric McCoo again.

 

[paz1]

Is Gates generally the 1st read in that offense?

 

[paz1]

Nevermind, this covers my ?.

Antonio Gates was not the clear number one option at TE this time last year, and Tony Gonzalez was rated ahead of him by many. After an outstanding season, he is now firmly established as the best player at his position.

Only 10 receivers had more targets than Gates last year, so it is not surprising that he managed to finish 10th among fantasy points with the WRs included. He also managed that after being suspended for the first game after holding out during the preseason.

Gates is the best receiver the Chargers have. McCardell is the top wide receiver, but he saw 32 less targets than Gates while playing a game more. The most impressive thing about Gates is that he has scored 23 TDs over the last two seasons, despite the presence of Tomlinson. Not every short yardage situation will end in a carry by Tomlinson.

The big change for Gates this year will be at QB. Philip Rivers has never started an NFL game and will take over from Drew Brees as the starter. The good news is that Rivers has had two years to absorb the offense, so he shouldn't struggle as much as a rookie would. In fact, Drew Brees had a reasonable season in his first year as the starter with 3284 passing yards and 17 TDs. Brees had only been with the team for a year when he became the starter so there is hope for Rivers.

I expect Gates to continue where he left off last year. He will still be the main target in the passing game. He may even have some improvement left in him, and he is yet to start 16 games in a season. He should be number one again.

Prediction

90 receptions  1125 yards  10 TDs

This is the part of your post that is too much speculation for me. Rivers easily could favor getting the ball out to Eric Parker and McCardell more then Brees did.

Look, everything is speculation right now. But part of the issue of preference is personnel. The system in SD favors the TE, and that's not a minor point. Getting a TE out in deep pass patterns is not a trivial aspect of an offense. It means that QB protection falls to the FB, it often means two-TE sets, and it usually means splitting the TE out in some sets. Essentially, the extra production out of the TE comes at the expense of the FB, and WR2 and WR3. While Kennan McCardell is a consummate pro, there's no way that the SD offense is going to stop calling plays to Gates, and if you believe in Gates' talen at getting open and at making tough catches, it's hard to believe that Rivers will not continue to target Gates about as frequently as Brees did. Even if he would prefer some otehr WR, when it's 3rd and 8, and Gates is the only WR running a pattern that's deeper than 8 yards, you better believe that Rivers will try to get it to him. It's not like some other player is going to start running seam routes all of a sudden. I guess that the uniqueness of the TE position makes me more skeptical of a sudden target change.

 

[Tau837]

Just a general question. Is Gates hyped because he is a good person, and story? I have seen a couple projections here for a better year than last year. Why?

Answers already posted:

As hard as it is to believe, this guy is still improving at his position and as a football player. He didn't play college ball and didn't play TE in high school. As dominant as he has been, he still has a ton of room for improvement. It's hard for me to believe his development will be stunted because of a new QB.

That QB has been in the system and around Gates for two years and was one of the most accurate passers in NCAA history. There's a reason why Brees was shopped around last year after one of the best seasons ever for a quarterback.

I expect Gates to continue where he left off last year. He will still be the main target in the passing game. He may even have some improvement left in him, and he is yet to start 16 games in a season. He should be number one again.

 

[Tau837]

Antonio Gates was not the clear number one option at TE this time last year, and Tony Gonzalez was rated ahead of him by many. After an outstanding season, he is now firmly established as the best player at his position.

Only 10 receivers had more targets than Gates last year, so it is not surprising that he managed to finish 10th among fantasy points with the WRs included. He also managed that after being suspended for the first game after holding out during the preseason.

Gates is the best receiver the Chargers have. McCardell is the top wide receiver, but he saw 32 less targets than Gates while playing a game more. The most impressive thing about Gates is that he has scored 23 TDs over the last two seasons, despite the presence of Tomlinson. Not every short yardage situation will end in a carry by Tomlinson.

The big change for Gates this year will be at QB. Philip Rivers has never started an NFL game and will take over from Drew Brees as the starter. The good news is that Rivers has had two years to absorb the offense, so he shouldn't struggle as much as a rookie would. In fact, Drew Brees had a reasonable season in his first year as the starter with 3284 passing yards and 17 TDs. Brees had only been with the team for a year when he became the starter so there is hope for Rivers.

I expect Gates to continue where he left off last year. He will still be the main target in the passing game. He may even have some improvement left in him, and he is yet to start 16 games in a season. He should be number one again.

Prediction

90 receptions  1125 yards  10 TDs

This is the part of your post that is too much speculation for me. Rivers easily could favor getting the ball out to Eric Parker and McCardell more then Brees did.

Look, everything is speculation right now. But part of the issue of preference is personnel. The system in SD favors the TE, and that's not a minor point. Getting a TE out in deep pass patterns is not a trivial aspect of an offense. It means that QB protection falls to the FB, it often means two-TE sets, and it usually means splitting the TE out in some sets. Essentially, the extra production out of the TE comes at the expense of the FB, and WR2 and WR3. While Kennan McCardell is a consummate pro, there's no way that the SD offense is going to stop calling plays to Gates, and if you believe in Gates' talen at getting open and at making tough catches, it's hard to believe that Rivers will not continue to target Gates about as frequently as Brees did. Even if he would prefer some otehr WR, when it's 3rd and 8, and Gates is the only WR running a pattern that's deeper than 8 yards, you better believe that Rivers will try to get it to him. It's not like some other player is going to start running seam routes all of a sudden. I guess that the uniqueness of the TE position makes me more skeptical of a sudden target change.

Rivers was known in college for making good reads and getting the ball to the open man. If Gates is open often, Rivers will get it to him. In the past two years, Gates has been open often.

So those who are expecting anything more than a minor regression, is it because you think Gates will be open less often, or because you think Rivers will get it to him less often than Brees did when he is open?

I assume most would cite the second reason, not the first. I really think people are underrating Rivers, and it is causing them to underrate Gates.

 

[KCC]

Just a general question. Is Gates hyped because he is a good person, and story? I have seen a couple projections here for a better year than last year. Why?

1) He was suspended for the opening game last year, so, assuming he stays healthy, he has an extra game to compile stats in this season.2) San Diego's schedule is somewhat easier this year.

 

[H.K.]

yeah, but I already have Larry Johnson as a keeper and you know JoePa: he'd probably try to sit LJ for Eric McCoo again.

...which is exactly why I made the the suggestion!

 

[lawyer]

To me, projecting Antonio Gates' stats for this season revolves around two central questions:

What will the loss of Brees do to the offense?

Brees was a Pro Bowl QB that managed games extremely well and provided a lot of leadership and stability to the team. He threw an above average deep ball, and had a nose for finding Gates in the end zone. I think that losing Brees will cause the offense to have to rely more on LT and it will force Phillip Rivers to have to step up and make big plays on third and longs.

Will Phillip Rivers be able to fill the void?

Personally, I think that Rivers will come up huge for the Chargers and will fill Brees' shoes nicely. I think that he has had more than enough time to mature and learn the offense while on the bench behind Brees, and he saw first-hand what it takes to become a Pro Bowl caliber QB. Furthermore, he knows that he has outstanding weapons in Gates and Tomlinson, and he knows that all he has to do is get the ball into their hands and they can break a game open. I don't think that he will fail in doing this.

Gates is an outstanding talent with the speed and catching ability to singlehandedly change a game. Rivers at QB will not cause any dropoff in Gates' fantasy stats, and it may even provide a boost. Young QB's tend to rely more upon their TE's because they're big, easy targets. Gates is not only big, but he's fast, he has moves, and he can catch. Hopefully, for Gates owners, this will mean an increase not only in receptions but in yardage for him from last year, and maybe even an increase from 2004.

Here are my projections:

Receptions: 95

Reception Yards: 1100

Reception TD's: 11

Gates will end the season as the clear #1 TE again this year.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Lingering question for me is...What does the loss of Brees mean to this Offense?

Rivers while a nice talent is a step below Brees in today's NFL. Although the TE is a QB' best friend, I am not as high as other about Gates. I see them giving Rivers a fairly vanilla offense with a big dose of LT2. This offense will be ugly at times and be hard to watch....Gates included.

For me as a drafting strategy, I will not be looking at Gates based on his current ADP 27 (TE 1). The TE group looks deep to me, I'll be taking a RB or WR in round 3

65 catches

850 yards

7 TD's

While I disagree with the projection, I agree with the strategy. Yudkin alluded to it in a previous post as well. The TE depth this year is huge and I see many players getting closer to the top and some lower ranked guys with great upside. Your going to have to burn a late 2nd, 3rd rounder if you want Gates and I'll be having a hard time justifying it. Will Rivers affect Gates production? Probably, the transition won't be seamless, but Gates is still improving as a football player and this offense will make sure they get the ball in his hands--he is the second best playmaker on the team coming off two tremendous seasons. I just find it difficult to project another tremendous season from him with Rivers, chemistry takes time to develop. Will he be the #1 TE--probably, but a small loss in production + other TE's closing the gap + a current ADP of early 3rd round = unlikley to be drafted by me.76 catches, 920 yards, 9TD's

 

[rzrback77]

Looks like the Antonio Gates thread has turned into a question of which came first, the TE or the QB?

Brees was a second round pick, who started all 16 games in 2002 performing reasonably well. He had 60% completions for 3284 yds 6.2 ypa 17 TDs and 16 Ints. In 2003, he missed five games and his ypa dropped to 5.9. He returned to the lineup in week 14. He played much better in 04 and 05 totaling 3159 yds and 3576 yds, with a ypa 7.9 and 7.2.

Gates burst on the scene in 2003. His targets were:

week 4 - 2

week 5 - 1

week 10 - 4

week 12 - 2

week 13 - 5

week 14 - 3

week 15 - 11 Brees returned with 363 yards passing

week 16 - 8 Brees had 198 yds passing

week 17 - 3

It was the performance in weeks 15 andd 16 that gave many a key look to the future for 2004. Gates never looked back after week 15 in his rookie season. In my opinion he was Brees key to success.

Gates targets have been 39, 111, and 140. I think that Gates will continue on in 06 and see another 140 targets....

90 catches 1080 yards and 11 TDs

 

[secretid]

It seems like people on this thread are establishing their projections then finding facts to support them instead of the other way around.

It's leading to a lot of "half" information that is doing as much harm as it is good.

 

[Bri]

I decided to look at inexperienced QBs and how their TEs perform. I looked at QBs with three or fewer years in the NFL, who were in their first year as a starter (>300 attempts). Since the year 2000, those are:

2005:

Eli Manning

Kyle Orton

Chris Simms

2004:

Kyle Boller

Carson Palmer

Josh McCown

Billy Volek

2003:

Marc Bulger

Quincy Carter

Byron Leftwich

Patrick Ramsey

2002:

Drew Brees

David Carr

Joey Harrington

Michael Vick

Chad Pennington

2001:

Chris Weinke

Tom Brady

Matt Hasselbeck

2000:

Donovan McNabb

Daunte Culpepper

Shaun King

The best TEs produced by this group were:

1-10 (4):

2005 Shockey (#2)

2002 Billy Miller (#7)

2002 Alge Crumpler (#8)

2000 Chad Lewis (#4)

11-20 (7):

2005 Alex Smith (#20)

2004 Freddie Jones (#17)

2002 Stephen Alexander (#15)

2002 Mikhael Ricks (#18)

2002 Anthony Becht (#16)

2001 Wesley Walls (#12)

2000 Dave Moore (#19)

21+ (11):

2005 Desmond Clark (#30)

2004 Todd Heap (#24)

2004 Matt Schoebl (#28)

2004 Ben Troupe (#30)

2003 Brandon Manumaleuna (#28)

2003 Jason Witten (#23)

2003 Kyle Brady (#30)

2003 Zeron Flemister (#66)

2001 Jermaine Wiggins (#24)

2001 Christian Fauria (#38)

2000 Johnny McWilliams (#26)

The trend here is obvious; on teams with first-year starting QBs, TEs did very poorly. Out of 22, only four produced above the baseline, and only two produced more than 16 points of VBD value vs. the #12 starter. In addition, for almost every TE except 2005 Shockey, this performance represented a down year; better performances were had by the TE before the studied year, after it, or both.

Here are the rankings of the QBs for the TEs who finished above the baseline:

2005 E.Manning: #4

2002 Vick: #3

2002 Carr: #24

2000 McNabb: #5

In three of the four cases where a TE being thrown to by a first-year QB finished above the baseline, the QB finished top-5 in fantasy points. That is, the TEs who performed well from this set benefitted from an overall passing game that was unusually effective, considering that they had a first-year starter at QB.

What does all this mean? Among other things, it clearly shows that first-year staters do not, in general, throw to their TE preferentially. It's already known that teams with first-year starters tend to have poor passing games, and this shows that the TE position is affected as much as, or even more than, other receiving positions. (Eyeballing this list of QBs, it looks like it produced a lot more top WRs than TEs).

There are a number of quality TEs on this list, although Shockey, who had the best season of this group, is perhaps the closest analog to Gates. However, there are differences there, notably that Manning started eight games the year before (197 attempts), and that he threw 557 passes (#3 in the league) in the season in question. Rivers has a total of 30 NFL attempts, all in meaningless games, and it is extremely unlikely that Schottenheimer will have him in the top 10 in pass attempts. In 20 years as a coach, Schottenheimer's teams have been in the top 10 in pass attempts only three times, and never in the top 5. Rivers, having no real game experience, will not get the opportunity to chuck it 550+ times under Martyball.

Gates is extremely talented, but if you project a significant drop in passing production for the Chargers (as I do), you have to project a significant drop in his receiving numbers. I think he will still be in the top 5, probably in the top 3 TEs, but will not be worth the premium that is currently being paid for him in drafts this year.

65 receptions, 780 yards, 7 TD. Good for TE#3.

As usual great research by Calbear. I don't agree with this as a basis for study though.last-first: Schottenheimer has never had a TE as good as Gates in previous stops and maybe even not half as good as Gates. Offenses are adjusted to suit the players and it's clear that the Chargers passing game goes thru Gates.

Rivers "no" game experience not amounting to him being allowed to throw the ball 550 times I don't agree with. If that's because LaDainian Tomlinson is running "a zillion" times well then that's fine but not because he lacks experience. Drew Bledsoe set a then record for most attempts in a season in just his second year(691).

"What does all this mean" paragraph referring to the above list of TEs:very little.

Shockey's best season was his first. From that point the Giants line was horrible and he stayed into block far more. In his opinion, the Giants finally let him play again last year for the first time since his rookie season.

Billy Miller was the leading receiver for the Texans in 2002 with 51 receptions and his career has gone quickly downhill ever since.

Alge Crumpler had a "soso" 2002 season as he was still learning and didn't quite his norm for career average until 2003.

Chad Lewis bounced around the NFL and didn't start until 2000. In 2000, that was his second stint with the Eagles and he didn't even start every game that year.

Desmond Clark in 05, Bears barely threw the ball in 2005 and their YPA is one of the lowest in modern day football.

Todd Heap, injured in 04 only playing 6 games and according to PFR he was the 23rd ranked not 24th. Pretty good for just 6 games.

Mikhael Ricks-failed project at WR and TE in the NFL never amounted to much of anything really

Walls and Alexander-fine comparisons as they were solid TEs

Freddie Jones has hurt his own career seeking big $ from other teams and eventually watching his career fade away not knowing just how good he had it.

Troupe wasn't the starter.

Wiggins wasn't the starter and IIRC he got cut that year.

Johnny McWilliams, are you serious?

Kyle Brady and Anthony Becht(and Dave Brown) are two TEs that New York wished were better than they wound up and were top picks for a NY team. Both became solid blockers but were never stellar receiving threats in NY.

Alex Smith was a rookie in 05 and hardly comparable to Gates.

Flemister might be Gates nickname if he's congested but again I don't see any correlation.

 

[BigRed]

As usual great research by Calbear. I don't agree with this as a basis for study though.

Me either, mostly for reasons stated. Looked good on the surface but doesn't hold up.If anything I think this is the best year to get Gates because he has the best odds to seperate himself from the pack more this year. Gonzo appears in decline (some of the reasons not being him per se).....and really who else is there who has a good shot at 1000+ / 10+ ? No one. I won't pay a ton for Gates, but I will go after him. In fact moreso than a top WR.

 

[mistersmith]

It seems like people on this thread are establishing their projections then finding facts to support them instead of the other way around.

It's leading to a lot of "half" information that is doing as much harm as it is good.

Just curious, who are you referring to? The side that believes that there won't be a drop off in Gates numbers with Rivers at QB, or the side that believe that there will be a dropoff in Gates numbers with Rivers at QB?

 

[CalBear]

Let me be clear; with this study, I'm not comparing those TEs to Gates, I'm testing the hypothesis that first-year QBs throw to their TEs preferentially. I believe the data show that the hypothesis is false; first-year QBs, in general, do not throw to their TEs preferentially, and in fact they seem to throw preferentially to their WR1 (based on further research posted elsewhere). I can see the argument that Gates is a different TE than most of those listed, but I still think that expecting him to put up one of the top 10 TE seasons of all time, with a first-year starter at QB, is unwarranted and risky.

 

[Musesboy]

Let me be clear; with this study, I'm not comparing those TEs to Gates, I'm testing the hypothesis that first-year QBs throw to their TEs preferentially. I believe the data show that the hypothesis is false; first-year QBs, in general, do not throw to their TEs preferentially, and in fact they seem to throw preferentially to their WR1 (based on further research posted elsewhere). I can see the argument that Gates is a different TE than most of those listed, but I still think that expecting him to put up one of the top 10 TE seasons of all time, with a first-year starter at QB, is unwarranted and risky.

I take your point and I like the study, but I would like to add this:Gates had 140 targets last year and only ten WRs exceeded that. It was 32 more than the leading receiver on his team. He is also used like a conventional receiver on some plays. With that taken into account, do you think that what applies to most TEs will apply to Gates? I would simply say that he is the leading receiver on the team. Some will be short, safe passes, and others will be thrown further downfield. But I believe that any QB, whatever their experience, would look for him more often than the other targets.

 

[Tau837]

Let me be clear; with this study, I'm not comparing those TEs to Gates, I'm testing the hypothesis that first-year QBs throw to their TEs preferentially. I believe the data show that the hypothesis is false; first-year QBs, in general, do not throw to their TEs preferentially, and in fact they seem to throw preferentially to their WR1 (based on further research posted elsewhere). I can see the argument that Gates is a different TE than most of those listed, but I still think that expecting him to put up one of the top 10 TE seasons of all time, with a first-year starter at QB, is unwarranted and risky.

This has probably been said, but a major distinction here is that Gates is often the first read in the Chargers passing game. That alone eliminates the relevance of the bolded statement above IMO.

 

[CalBear]

Gates had 140 targets last year and only ten WRs exceeded that. It was 32 more than the leading receiver on his team. He is also used like a conventional receiver on some plays. With that taken into account, do you think that what applies to most TEs will apply to Gates? I would simply say that he is the leading receiver on the team. Some will be short, safe passes, and others will be thrown further downfield. But I believe that any QB, whatever their experience, would look for him more often than the other targets.

It's very possible for Gates to be the #1 receiver on San Diego and still not score as many fantasy points as Gonzo and Shockey. A lot depends on how highly you rate the San Diego passing game, which has been in the top 5 in passing TDs for the past two years (29 and 27 TDs in 2004 and 2005, respectively). How many TDs do you project Rivers to throw? I haven't done my Rivers projections, but I know it will be significantly lower than 27 TDs.

 

[H.K.]

Gates had 140 targets last year and only ten WRs exceeded that. It was 32 more than the leading receiver on his team. He is also used like a conventional receiver on some plays.

All of these statements are past tense and should be followed by "when Brees was QB".Rivers will destroy Gates this season. It's undeniable.

 

[Musesboy]

It's very possible for Gates to be the #1 receiver on San Diego and still not score as many fantasy points as Gonzo and Shockey. A lot depends on how highly you rate the San Diego passing game, which has been in the top 5 in passing TDs for the past two years (29 and 27 TDs in 2004 and 2005, respectively). How many TDs do you project Rivers to throw? I haven't done my Rivers projections, but I know it will be significantly lower than 27 TDs.

Agreed. There is no guarantee that Gates will be number one in the league, even assuming he's the top receiver on his own team. But I am one that is high on Rivers. He's not a rookie and has had two years on the bench. He won't be as raw as most, and many first year starters have done well if they were allowed a year or two on the bench. Brees was an efficient starter for the Chargers but I wouldn't place him among the elite QBs. Brees had 24 TDs last year and LT threw the other three. Brees threw for 3284/17 in his first season as starter and that was without a weapon like Gates. I wouldn't be surprised to see Rivers approach the production that Brees had last year but I would peg him at about 3200 yards and 20-22 TDs.

 

[David Yudkin]

Gates had 140 targets last year and only ten WRs exceeded that. It was 32 more than the leading receiver on his team. He is also used like a conventional receiver on some plays.

All of these statements are past tense and should be followed by "when Brees was QB".Rivers will destroy Gates this season. It's undeniable.

We need an :exaggerationintendedforshockeffect: smilie. That or a "theskyisfalling" emoticon.

 

[H.K.]

We need an :exaggerationintendedforshockeffect: smilie. That or a "theskyisfalling" emoticon.

Again, past tense is needed: "theskyhasalreadyfallen" emoticon would be more appropriate.

 

[BigRed]

We need an :exaggerationintendedforshockeffect: smilie. That or a "theskyisfalling" emoticon.

How about an :attentionwhore: one, or would that be too un-PC

 

[secretid]

It seems like people on this thread are establishing their projections then finding facts to support them instead of the other way around.

It's leading to a lot of "half" information that is doing as much harm as it is good.

Just curious, who are you referring to? The side that believes that there won't be a drop off in Gates numbers with Rivers at QB, or the side that believe that there will be a dropoff in Gates numbers with Rivers at QB?

Both. But I've never been here for pre-season before, maybe I just don't have a feel for it yet.