Player Spotlight: Antonio Gates (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Antonio Gates, TE, San Diego Chargers

Player Page Link: Antonio Gates Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Phlash]

Antonio Gates was slowed down last season with nagging injuries through the year, which became worse in the playoffs nearly killing his production outright. When healthy, he is an absolute stud, and should be considered the #1 receiver on his team going into next year - forget Chris Chamber and Vincent Jackson. He averages 900+ yards each season and on a good year will give you 10+ TDs. In reality, having him, Witten, or Gonzalez should be your goal if you want to lock up a top tier tight end.

Antonio Gates 2008-2009:

90/1100/11

 

[rzrback77]

Antonio Gates is a tough pre-season call as he recovers from off-season toe surgery. He has been an elite performer from the beginning of his second season. He missed one game per year in his first three seasons, but has not missed a game in the past two. He has finished as TE 1 three years and TE 2 in the other.

If he sits out all of pre-season as expected, he will probably be drafted as the third or even fourth TE and could be a huge bargain for those willing to take the risk. He has averaged 85 receptions per year and right at 1,000 yards and 10 TDs over those four years. His current ADP is TE 1 and 44 overall, but he will likely drop lower if he misses all of pre-season. He will slip because if you take a TE that quickly, you can't afford to miss. You are sacrificing value at RB and WR, so you must make it up at TE. Many will be swayed to take others later. I think that he will be ready for the season opener, but it definitely is a situation to monitor closely up to your drafts.

Antonio Gates 110 targets 75 receptions 68% 975 yards 13.0 ypr 10 TDs

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Antonio Gates should be your NO. 1 TE in your draft. The guy played when he was in terrible pain versus Indy, he'll be playing come week 1 this upcoming season. It may be a little more nervous to draft him a little farther out in drafts, but those are the drafts where he'll offer the best value. He'll end up with another great season.

87 receptions for 890 yards and 9 td's

 

[SSOG]

Antonio Gates is always a pricey commodity in fantasy football, costing a 3rd round pick, usually well before any of his TE brethren. And he's totally worth it. Why? Two big reasons.

Reason #1- Reliability. He plays with a QB that his team has given up on in 2004, and puts up a stud season. He plays with a QB widely regarded as a major stud in 2005, and he puts up a stud season. He plays with a new unproven QB with no track record in 2006, and he puts up a stud season. He plays with a QB generally regarded as good but not great in 2007, and he puts up a stud season. He's untested in 2004, suspended in 2005, injured in 2007, and he's a stud. Since breaking out, he's NEVER had fewer than 900 yards, he's NEVER had fewer than 9 TDs, He's NEVER had fewer than 70 grabs. Basically, there are two certainties in fantasy football- Antonio Gates and Peyton Manning. Their bust risk is just so dramatically lower than everyone else's (and remember, 50% of fantasy picks wind up busting in some way shape or form) that they command a premium, and deservedly so.

Reason #2- Production. If you believe in VBD, it's interesting to note that Gates has never finished with a VBD lower than 18th overall, meaning from a strict VBD standpoint, Gates would have justified pick #2.06 or higher EVERY SINGLE SEASON (some seasons he'd justify even more, and you could argue that getting 2.06 production out of pick 2.02 would still be justifying the pick). From a strict VBD standpoint, Gates should be a SECOND rounder, not a third. From a dynamic VBD standpoint, some might argue that you can get great VBD from later TEs, too... but that gets back to point #1- those later TEs are going later because they don't have Gates' reliability.

This season, because of the perceived rise of Gates' peers, he's slipped and is currently costing a 4th rounder, making him an even bigger steal. I mean, an ABSURD steal. Consider this- if Gates were a WR, then based off of current ADP, he would be the 16th WR off the board. Last season, in what as a DOWN YEAR for Gates, an injury-riddled campaign, he outscored the WR16 STRAIGHT UP. And you can start him at the TE position (ask Marques Colston owners in Yahoo leagues his rookie year what kind of advantage that is). If Antonio Gates were a WR, he'd still be worth more than what he's currently going for, but the fact that he's a TE just makes this silly.

Gates is a stud nonpareil. His current cost would be cheap even if we started nothing but flexes and didn't take into account the scarcity of quality players at his position. Taking into account the position he plays, the stats he puts up would justify a draft pick two full rounds earlier than he's currently going. I'll buy that all day long. His injury might scare some people off, but I'm willing to gamble that he'll be ready to go by the opener... and even if he's not, it wouldn't be the first opener he's missed.

80/1050/10 if he makes it back 100% from the injury by the start of the season, 70/910/8 if not.

 

[The Jacket]

70-875-8

Certainly not worth the high pick. Wait around for Witten, Gonzo or someone else.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

70-875-8Certainly not worth the high pick. Wait around for Witten, Gonzo or someone else.

Basically. Unless he falls you're better off with one of the other 3 tight ends in Witten, Gonzalez, and Winslow.

 

[Jon_Moore]

He's the best tight end in the league, bar none.

In the first half of the season, he was on pace for 94 Receptions, 1300 Yards and 10 TDs.

Then in the 2nd half, through nagging injuries and such, he slowed down dramatically, only getting 42 Yards a game on 28 receptiions to go with 4 TDs.

Reportedly he's not 100% yet, but I suspect he will be. Once he is, he'll be unstoppable again.

Don't forget, defenses are way more concerned about that Tomlinson guy he plays with.

84 Receptions

1100 Yards

11 TDs

 

[FreeBaGeL]

All 4 years as a starter he's had 900+ yards and 9+ TDs, yet somehow his value seems down a bit this year.

Yeah yeah, there's Chris Chambers in town now, but we've heard that before with Vincent Jackson.

Yeah yeah, Witten and Winslow were nearly as good last year from a cheaper draft spot, but we've heard that exact thing before too (Heap, Crumpler, Shockey, etc).

Who's to say that three years from now we're not looking at three more 900+/9+ seasons out of Gates while Witten and Winslow have fallen off to the likes of Heap, Crumpler, Shockey, etc?

78 Receptions

1000 Yards

10 TDs

 

[David Yudkin]

Last I heard, Gates has been slow to recover from surgery and could miss some or all of training camp. There's been some talk as to whether he would be good to go by Opening Day, and I've heard that even if he suits up Week 1 he will be hampered in the beginning of the season.

Not sure what that means to his numbers, but that's what I've heard . . .

 

[joffer]

toe injury scares me a little

74/880/7