Player Spotlight: Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans

Player Page Link: Arian Foster Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
• FBG Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

 

[Shutout]

Barring injury, another top 3 finish. A lot of people will try to manufacture (make up) a lot of info to help justify why he will not do it again this year (and subsequently fail to apply those same reasonings to other players) but the only facts that are relevant are just that; the only facts that are available, because the rest of it is predictions of injury and speculation. And those are that he's been a stud for three straight years, is young, and is CLEARLY the straw that stirs the drink on that offense.

Foster is likes great non-big football school in the BCS. Since they weren't lauded to start with, they start unbanked. Then they arrive on the scene and everybody calls it a fluke. Then they say show me again, then they say yeah but, show me again. Then after they showed you everything and did it all, they say "we'll now they are used up". Yeah, after 3-4 years, the class that did so well graduate (ages out). Eventually those people will be right without ever acknowledging what just happened in front of their eyes. But Foster isn't a senior yet and will prove, yet again, that he belongs at the top.

 

[fightingillini]

Foster has logged a lot of carries in the past 3 years, but there is no reason why he won't have another big year. HOU loves to run the football, Foster is a lock for 45+ receptions, and 11+ TDs. Don't ever worry about Ben Tate. There is enough of a pie in HOU for Foster to get 20-23 touches a game and Tate to get a decent share for himself. You would like to get Tate as insurance, but I suspect Tate will be too expensive.

Foster is currently my RB2 behind Peterson, but the difference between Foster, Charles, Lynch and Martin is fairly small.

300 car, 1320 rush yds, 12 TD

52 rec, 380 rec yds, 2 TD

 

[(HULK)]

I was looking at the rushing strength of schedule article and noticed that Foster's schedule should be much easier this year than last.

 

[silentcoach]

Foster 1200 yds 45 rec 250 yds and 9 tds

Gets a lot of passing targets and is a lock for tds. pretty safe pick but there are some red flags. He is still explosive enough for "fantasy purposes."

My only worry would be if foster loses his passing targets bc his yards per rush stat has been declining since 2010. And his 5.4yard per reception seems like a huge outlier but were used in the projections as a base. If he loses the passing targets he pretty much becomes F.Gore.

 

[amicsta]

Foster's massive workload (1243 touches over the last 3 years including playoffs) is definitely a concern for me from an injury perspective. We already saw him get dinged up in OTA's. I also feel like the Texans will look to give Tate more touches this year in an effort to elongate Foster's career. They really missed having Tate last year i thought. Given the talent pool at the very top of the draft, Foster probably won't end up on any of my teams this season. To the point made my previous posters, Foster will still be a top fantasy player when healthy. I generally don't include injury concern into my projections, just the final ranking, so this is what I came up with for Foster over 16:

270 carries/4.2 YPC/1134 rush yards/14 TDs

52 receptions/9.2 YPR/478 receiving yards/2 TDs

 

[johnadams]

My only worry would be if foster loses his passing targets bc his yards per rush stat has been declining since 2010. And his 5.4yard per reception seems like a huge outlier but were used in the projections as a base. If he loses the passing targets he pretty much becomes F.Gore.

Taking away their rookie years, Gore averages about four carries per game less than Foster, or 64 in a 16 game schedule. Plus, Gore has only gotten 10 or more TDs rushing in one season vs. three (in all three seasons as a starter) for Foster. Not comparable.

270 carries/4.2 YPC/1134 rush yards/14 TDs

Without injury, it's hard to see him falling short of 300+ carries. From 2010 through 2012, he has averaged 21.2 carries a game. That would give him 339 carries in a 16 game season. I don't see anything in HOU that makes me think he's going to get used less. He's still young enough to handle the workload.

330 carries, 1485 yds, 14 TDs.

I stuggle a bit more with the passing game, which was solid before last year. 45 catches, 320 yds, 2 TDs.

Overall, stud and rightly considered a top 3 pick.

 

[mcd]

I was looking at the rushing strength of schedule article and noticed that Foster's schedule should be much easier this year than last.

I'll let someone else draft him & deal with the murder row defenses in week 3-6 (Baltimore, Seattle, San Fran & St. Louis). The time to grab him in a trade is after week 7 when he's going into his bye.

 

[silentcoach]

I was looking at the rushing strength of schedule article and noticed that Foster's schedule should be much easier this year than last.

I'll let someone else draft him & deal with the murder row defenses in week 3-6 (Baltimore, Seattle, San Fran & St. Louis). The time to grab him in a trade is after week 7 when he's going into his bye.

Defense yards per game then yards per carry

sea 10,23 = 16.5

blt 20, 8 = 14

sf 4,3 = 3.5

stl 15, 19 = 17

Foster total yards against the tough run defenses last year

denver (2, 3) = 108 yds and 1 td

blt (since you mentioned them) = 103 yds and 2 tds

ne (9, 6) = 2 games avg 119 yds 1.5 tds

chi (8,14) = 117 yds and 1 td

cin (12, 13) = 174 yds and 1 td

min (11,7) = 27 yards and 0 td.

Besides the minny game he did very well.

Besides SF, the other defenses you mentioned were about avg or worse against the run.

 

[mcd]

I was looking at the rushing strength of schedule article and noticed that Foster's schedule should be much easier this year than last.

I'll let someone else draft him & deal with the murder row defenses in week 3-6 (Baltimore, Seattle, San Fran & St. Louis). The time to grab him in a trade is after week 7 when he's going into his bye.

Defense yards per game then yards per carry

sea 10,23 = 16.5

blt 20, 8 = 14

sf 4,3 = 3.5

stl 15, 19 = 17

Foster total yards against the tough run defenses last year

denver (2, 3) = 108 yds and 1 td

blt (since you mentoned them) = 103 yds and 2 tds

ne (9, 6) = 2 games avg 119 yds 1.5 tds

chi (8,14) = 117 yds and 1 td

cin (12, 13) = 174 yds and 1 td

min (11,7) = 27 yards and 0 td.

Besides the minny game he did very well.

Besides SF, the other defenses you mentioned were about avg or worse against the run.

Yeah, I wouldn't argue last years numbers. This year I think Baltimore & St. Louis will be improved. I also think those are 4 of the more physical defenses in the league. Foster is going to get worn down over that 4 week period & I wouldn't be surprised to see Tate spelling him even more during that run just to save some wear and tear on Foster. If an owner sees Tate's carries rise & Foster slump slightly it will create a discounted market. I wouldn't use a top 5 pick on Foster going into the season but would certainly buy at a discount after he's done with his tough stretch.

 

[silentcoach]

I was looking at the rushing strength of schedule article and noticed that Foster's schedule should be much easier this year than last.

I'll let someone else draft him & deal with the murder row defenses in week 3-6 (Baltimore, Seattle, San Fran & St. Louis). The time to grab him in a trade is after week 7 when he's going into his bye.

Defense yards per game then yards per carry

sea 10,23 = 16.5

blt 20, 8 = 14

sf 4,3 = 3.5

stl 15, 19 = 17

Foster total yards against the tough run defenses last year

denver (2, 3) = 108 yds and 1 td

blt (since you mentoned them) = 103 yds and 2 tds

ne (9, 6) = 2 games avg 119 yds 1.5 tds

chi (8,14) = 117 yds and 1 td

cin (12, 13) = 174 yds and 1 td

min (11,7) = 27 yards and 0 td.

Besides the minny game he did very well.

Besides SF, the other defenses you mentioned were about avg or worse against the run.

Yeah, I wouldn't argue last years numbers. This year I think Baltimore & St. Louis will be improved. I also think those are 4 of the more physical defenses in the league. Foster is going to get worn down over that 4 week period & I wouldn't be surprised to see Tate spelling him even more during that run just to save some wear and tear on Foster. If an owner sees Tate's carries rise & Foster slump slightly it will create a discounted market. I wouldn't use a top 5 pick on Foster going into the season but would certainly buy at a discount after he's done with his tough stretch.

The defenses I named ranked 2.5, 14, 7.5, 11, 12.5 and 9 against the run.

Foster averaged 110 total yds, and 1.1 tds against those defenses.

I'd lean towards Foster being okay--in the sense that strength of schedule will not be the reason he suffers. He may suffer bc his skill is declining? (a whole other issue i pointed in the first post since there are some red flags).

Your arguement that Tate may get more carries may very well come true and I have no way to rebut that except for pointing to the his production versus the tougher defenses; or else we're just guessing and going with our guts, which is fine. Sometimes (often) the gut is right.

 

[Warrior]

My only worry would be if foster loses his passing targets bc his yards per rush stat has been declining since 2010. And his 5.4yard per reception seems like a huge outlier but were used in the projections as a base. If he loses the passing targets he pretty much becomes F.Gore.

Taking away their rookie years, Gore averages about four carries per game less than Foster, or 64 in a 16 game schedule. Plus, Gore has only gotten 10 or more TDs rushing in one season vs. three (in all three seasons as a starter) for Foster. Not comparable.

transparent cherry-picking...you're better than that, aren't you?

Gore has 1 season of 13 TDs, 2 seasons of 9 and another season of 8.

Obviously, Foster is a TD machine, much moreso than Gore, so you don't need to use the "only one season of 10 or more TDs" stat to mislead people.

 

[silentcoach]

My only worry would be if foster loses his passing targets bc his yards per rush stat has been declining since 2010. And his 5.4yard per reception seems like a huge outlier but were used in the projections as a base. If he loses the passing targets he pretty much becomes F.Gore.

Taking away their rookie years, Gore averages about four carries per game less than Foster, or 64 in a 16 game schedule. Plus, Gore has only gotten 10 or more TDs rushing in one season vs. three (in all three seasons as a starter) for Foster. Not comparable.

I am merely suggesting that without the receptions, Foster is much less valuable and resembles Gore. I am not saying there are comparable otherwise.

Rushing stats the last 2 years

F.Gore 1211.5 yds (4.5/carry) and 8tds (3.01 adp)

Foster 1317.5 (4.2/carry) and 12.5 tds (1.02 adp)

I doubt that 100 more yards and 4.5 tds is the difference from 1.02 adp to 3.01 adp.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

Thoughts on Tate being in a contract year? Last year he was hurt for a good amount of time. I think he should vulture at least 5 carries a game more this year if healthy. I expect 30 carries out of the offense in wins, 15 in losses.

My prediction on Foster

280 carries for 1224 yards, 12 TDs,
54 rec 245 yards, 2 TDs

 

[JustinHawkins]

In my PPR dynasty I can't get a single offer for him. It's amazing how little love he gets when you look at his production week after week!

 

[OnTheReg]

I wonder if his draft status will fall after the latest news that his back pain has spread to his legs. Are you downgrading him in your league?

 

[Arnold. S]

I'm trading Arian Foster wherever I can, and there's no way I draft him. To me, he has huge negatives:

1) Nothing but bad news thus far in the offseason

2) His vegan diet since last year has me worried about his ability to recover and get the proper nutrients for basic health, not to mention athletic performance

3) His focus on the film/entertainment industry

 

[RushHour]

Too many red flags. In a year with so many good RB1s with upside, I see no reason to draft this guy in the first 8-10 picks.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

In my PPR dynasty I can't get a single offer for him. It's amazing how little love he gets when you look at his production week after week!

Elite price tag

Turning 27 years old

Unexpectedly lingering injuries

Declining per touch numbers

 

[Rodeojones]

I just took him in a 12 team ppr redraft at 1.11. I just couldn't pass up the value. :fingerscrossed:

 

[Hagger]

I own him in my dynasty league and am offering him in trades all over. No one is biting. I feel like he's too valuable to just cut, but at the same time I don't really want him on my roster. His situation is very hard to predict.

 

[Banger]

I own him in my dynasty league and am offering him in trades all over. No one is biting. I feel like he's too valuable to just cut, but at the same time I don't really want him on my roster. His situation is very hard to predict.

You definitely even can't think about cutting him. That's crazy talk.

 

[Hagger]

I own him in my dynasty league and am offering him in trades all over. No one is biting. I feel like he's too valuable to just cut, but at the same time I don't really want him on my roster. His situation is very hard to predict.

You definitely even can't think about cutting him. That's crazy talk.

I'm sure you're right. But in this league we have salaries that increase over the years, forcing people to make cuts eventually, and I have a fair amount of salary tied up in Foster.

 

[ghostguy123]

I own him in my dynasty league and am offering him in trades all over. No one is biting. I feel like he's too valuable to just cut, but at the same time I don't really want him on my roster. His situation is very hard to predict.

You definitely even can't think about cutting him. That's crazy talk.

I'm sure you're right. But in this league we have salaries that increase over the years, forcing people to make cuts eventually, and I have a fair amount of salary tied up in Foster.

Unless he is 50% of your salary, you dont cut him

 

[Hagger]

I own him in my dynasty league and am offering him in trades all over. No one is biting. I feel like he's too valuable to just cut, but at the same time I don't really want him on my roster. His situation is very hard to predict.

You definitely even can't think about cutting him. That's crazy talk.

I'm sure you're right. But in this league we have salaries that increase over the years, forcing people to make cuts eventually, and I have a fair amount of salary tied up in Foster.

Unless he is 50% of your salary, you dont cut him

He's not 50%. I plan on keeping him unless news comes out that he's missing season. I worry about the toll he's been taking over the last few years. I think a lot of people are still burnt from Shaun Alexander all of those years ago. It feels similar.

 

[We Tigers]

I own him in my dynasty league and am offering him in trades all over. No one is biting. I feel like he's too valuable to just cut, but at the same time I don't really want him on my roster. His situation is very hard to predict.

You definitely even can't think about cutting him. That's crazy talk.

I'm sure you're right. But in this league we have salaries that increase over the years, forcing people to make cuts eventually, and I have a fair amount of salary tied up in Foster.

Unless he is 50% of your salary, you dont cut him

He's not 50%. I plan on keeping him unless news comes out that he's missing season. I worry about the toll he's been taking over the last few years. I think a lot of people are still burnt from Shaun Alexander all of those years ago. It feels similar.

Shaun Alexander falling off has everyone a bit paranoid to a fault when it comes to any player who's had a few seasons in the league. Alexander had 5 monster years before he bottomed out.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Dynasty guys are selling one year too late if they're selling now. I know his ultimate fantasy numbers were pretty good last year, but anytime I saw him he looked very pedestrian. His numbers seemed more like a product of the system than anything he did.

Unless you can't afford him, I think you're stuck with him. Ride him until he's toast unless he has a hot streak and you can actually get some decent value.

 

[glock]

If, for argument's sake Foster were unable to return this year- where does Tate fall in among the RB's?

 

[ldizzle]

If, for argument's sake Foster were unable to return this year- where does Tate fall in among the RB's?

for me, i would put him right there with mccoy/richardson/rice. Definitely top 10 rb.

 

[Khy]

If, for argument's sake Foster were unable to return this year- where does Tate fall in among the RB's?

for me, i would put him right there with mccoy/richardson/rice. Definitely top 10 rb.

I don't want to say 'definitely' Top 10 as Tate has also had his own injury problems. But Tate is clearly a must draft a round or more earlier than his current ADP if you're drafting in the next few days. Sure, there's still a 50/50 shot that Foster is fine and he's available for Week 1 and nothing goes wrong with his health. But none of this news has been good so far... you have to acknowledge the other 50% of that equation that Foster may have some serious type of injury. If he's out for 2-4 or however many weeks, Tate has proven in the past that he's a Top 10 RB during those weeks.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

Question: In dynasty leagues, who do you handcuff to Foster's handcuff? Karim? Wood?

 

[Arnold. S]

Be on the lookout for who gets carries after Tate this 3rd game of the preseason. That's the Alfred Morris of this year.

 

[Khy]

Be on the lookout for who gets carries after Tate this 3rd game of the preseason. That's the Alfred Morris of this year.

Could you elaborate a little bit here? Alfred Morris was the no-name rookie who had two guys in front of him who could never stay healthy and showed limited explosiveness in the Shanahan blocking schemes. How is that similar to the Texans this season? Or are you assuming that Foster doesn't play all season and neither does Tate? Clearly if Foster is out for any length of time it's Tate's job by 20 miles.

 

[We Tigers]

But if you don't handcuff your handcuffs, and maybe their handcuffs, you're exposing yourself to too much risk. You know the old saying: you can't win your draft in the 1st, 6th, and 13th rounds combined, but you sure can lose it.

 

[Shutout]

Question: In dynasty leagues, who do you handcuff to Foster's handcuff? Karim? Wood?

Dennis Johnson. Wood has really taken advantage of the situation in the pre-season games and has caught some attention but most of the people covering the Texans have been consistent in saying the same thing: That Johnson does all the things better than the other guys, sans Foster and Tate.

Tate is nowhere close to being as dynamic as Foster, but he is their best 2nd option still. But Johnson is the watered-down version of Foster among the players that are left.

Honestly, if it came to be that Foster would miss a lot of time, I think they would check to see if McGahee is healthy. That is probably the best available fit to them (if Willis is healthy).

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

But if you don't handcuff your handcuffs, and maybe their handcuffs, you're exposing yourself to too much risk. You know the old saying: you can't win your draft in the 1st, 6th, and 13th rounds combined, but you sure can lose it.

I think in dynasty, when rosters are expanded in the preseason, it could pay off until the situation clears...