Player Spotlight: Braylon Edwards (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Braylon Edwards, WR, Cleveland Browns

Player Page Link: Braylon Edwards Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[jurb26]

I feel rather fortunate that I get to see Edwards play a lot because of him being in the Steelers division. This is a great WR who really matured last year. He is in a great situation in Clev as they have a bunch of weapons that can draw coverage away from him at times. Still, regression has to be expected after a year like he had last year.

82 receptions, 1250 yds, 11 Tds

 

[BBRULE]

I feel rather fortunate that I get to see Edwards play a lot because of him being in the Steelers division. This is a great WR who really matured last year. He is in a great situation in Clev as they have a bunch of weapons that can draw coverage away from him at times. Still, regression has to be expected after a year like he had last year.82 receptions, 1250 yds, 11 Tds

I think a few more catces can be expected with similar yardage but the TDs will surely drop after a year like last.86Rec 1320Yrd 10TDs

 

[The Man with the Plan]

How many wide receivers have scored 16 or more touchdowns in a season? That has to be an incredibly rare accomplishment.

 

[jurb26]

How many wide receivers have scored 16 or more touchdowns in a season? That has to be an incredibly rare accomplishment.

Oddly enough the feet has been reached, 16 times.Moss has done it 3 himself and Rice 2 times, so in reality only 13 WRs have done it.

 

[David Yudkin]

We have been debating the impact Stallworth will have in some of the other projections threads. A popular opinion was that the Browns passing stats would dip slightly but Edwards and Winslow would still "get theirs." When crunching the numbers, the other staffers felt that there was not enough offense to go around for Stallworth . . . does his signing have little to no impact on Edwards?

 

[-OZ-]

Only possible downfall would be if Anderson struggles and Quinn comes in. I happen to like Quinn, but as a general rule, I don't like WRs with 1st year starters.

5.5 / 82 / .8 per game

88 / 1312 / 13

 

[The Man with the Plan]

We have been debating the impact Stallworth will have in some of the other projections threads. A popular opinion was that the Browns passing stats would dip slightly but Edwards and Winslow would still "get theirs." When crunching the numbers, the other staffers felt that there was not enough offense to go around for Stallworth . . . does his signing have little to no impact on Edwards?

Donte Stallworth is most likely going to start over Joe Jurevicius so it's his numbers (50-614-3) that will be affected since he'll be on the bench. With that being said Edwards and Winslow won't be the only deep threats for the team anymore so that could take away opportunities from them.

 

[chris1969]

We have been debating the impact Stallworth will have in some of the other projections threads. A popular opinion was that the Browns passing stats would dip slightly but Edwards and Winslow would still "get theirs." When crunching the numbers, the other staffers felt that there was not enough offense to go around for Stallworth . . . does his signing have little to no impact on Edwards?

Donte Stallworth is most likely going to start over Joe Jurevicius so it's his numbers (50-614-3) that will be affected since he'll be on the bench. With that being said Edwards and Winslow won't be the only deep threats for the team anymore so that could take away opportunities from them.

I think Stallworth was brought in to in to catch enough home run passes to keep defenders honest. JJ actually asked the Browns to bring in another #2 WR because of his knee issues. He was having trouble running the deep routes and staying on the field for the number of minutes that the team needed. Playing in the number 3 spot lets him go back to catching the over the middle stuff and extends his career another year or 2. Winslow had to catch more of the over the middle stuff last year since the Browns lacked a #3 WR. I think Braylon's stats wont change much, other than TD's and Winslow's actually get a little better. IF Mike Rucker gets more PT on the same field as Winslow, Stallworth and Edwards though, I think that digs into Edwards stats.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

79 - 1248 - 13

 

[Banger]

Unstoppable red zone monster. Why change what worked so well? Anderson chuck the ball up and let Edwards go up and get it. 85-1350-15.

 

[fightingillini]

Edwards has proven that he is one of the league's top WRs. Has good speed, runs good routes and is a great in the redzone. If Anderson was a more accurate passer, then Edwards could compete with Moss and Owens and Wayne for the #1 FF WR. Edwards only caught 52% of his targets, and Anderson only completed 56.5% of his passes. With Edwards a deep threat, one can clearly expect his catch ratio to be less than Anderson's completion ratio. Last year, Edwards was targeted on about 28% of CLE passes. With Stallworth coming on board, I expect Anderson to spread it around a little more, with Edwards dropping to about 135 targets. I don't expect Anderson to improve on his completion percentage.

71 rec, 1100 yds, 12 TD

 

[Coeur de Lion]

One of the best WRs in the NFL, playing in what emerged as a very potent passing attack last year. I see a slight uptick in receptions/yards and a slight regression to the mean TD-wise. I see a very strong case for him as early as WR2.

90 catches for 1395 yards and 11 TDs, minimal rushing

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Edwards has to come off his numbers at least a little from a year ago. The schedule is much tougher and defenses are going to be gunning for him...doesn't mean they will stop him but they might slow him down a touch.

80 catches, 1200 yds...all that is fine for him to replicate but I see him dropping from 16 TD to about 10 TD.

80/1200/10

 

[eric rymer]

I am hoping for another year like last, but repeating the 16 scores again will be tough. I'd say about 85 - 1350 - 12

 

[David Yudkin]

Edwards scored 225 fantasy points last year. Prior to last year, the average drop off for the 27 other WRs (since 1970) that had scored that many points in a season was 22%.

So if Edwards was exactly "average", then he'd drop from 225 ponts to 175 points. Last year, that would have ranked 10th.

Just food for thought . . .

 

[Fallerjw]

Great receiver on a very good offense. I think the team will try to run the ball a bit more this year.

78 catches

1250 yards

10 TDs

 

[Interseptopus]

Edwards scored 225 fantasy points last year. Prior to last year, the average drop off for the 27 other WRs (since 1970) that had scored that many points in a season was 22%.So if Edwards was exactly "average", then he'd drop from 225 ponts to 175 points. Last year, that would have ranked 10th.Just food for thought . . .

That's real deep.I think Edwards is still a good deep threat for next season. Stallworth didn't keep Moss from tearing it up. One thing that I like about Edwards is that he was a redzone target; he wasn't a one-trick poney, they looked for him inside the 20. I think this bodes well for his production for this season. Even if his deep threat is minimized by Stallworth, he's still a quality redzone target. As mentioned previously, his only downfall is the uncertainty at QB. Anderson put up some good numbers as a whole, but looking at how he varied week to week brings uncertainty. Not to mention a lot of the times Anderson would just throw the ball up for grabs (he's not the most accurate QB in the league), and it's kind of hard to miss WRs 6'5, 6'3 and a TE 6'4. I personally think Anderson is the most overrated QB in the league right now, and wouldn't be surprised to see Quinn come in week 6-8 if Anderson starts to struggle. I don't like the learning curve between Edwards and Quinn, so I think if that happens his production suffers. I still think he cracks the top 10 though, he has so much talent it'd be hard not to80/1100/9

 

[FUBAR]

Edwards scored 225 fantasy points last year. Prior to last year, the average drop off for the 27 other WRs (since 1970) that had scored that many points in a season was 22%.So if Edwards was exactly "average", then he'd drop from 225 ponts to 175 points. Last year, that would have ranked 10th.Just food for thought . . .

Fascinating, how much of that is due to injury?

 

[David Yudkin]

Edwards scored 225 fantasy points last year. Prior to last year, the average drop off for the 27 other WRs (since 1970) that had scored that many points in a season was 22%.So if Edwards was exactly "average", then he'd drop from 225 ponts to 175 points. Last year, that would have ranked 10th.Just food for thought . . .

Fascinating, how much of that is due to injury?

In the first year, 426 total games played. In the following year, 410 total games played (96.2%). Injuries TO THE RECEIVER did not have a big part in the dropoff. I can't tell if injuries to other offensive players contributed or not, but for the huge majority of players they were still healthy and playing.

 

[wadegarrett]

85 1275 11

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I think he's a little overrated this season. Braylon Edwards is getting drafted in the same area as guys like TO/Wayne/Fitz. As talented as he is he's still the 4th best player among those receivers. For him to be worth the price paid in the draft he has to put up the same numbers as last season or at least close to it. I think that might be too much to ask especially when it comes to the touchdowns.

Receiving touchdowns can be very volatile from season to season. One year a guy can have double-digit touchdowns and just as easily have single-digit the next season. There are some guys that are just adept at scoring TD's (TO, Moss, Rice) but they're few and far between. Even Jerry Rice was prone to having fluctuating TD numbers. In 1987 he had 22 touchdowns in 13 games. The next season in 16 games he only had 9 touchdowns. In 1995 he had 15 touchdowns in one of the greatest fantasy seasons for a WR. The next season? 8 touchdowns. If it can happen to Rice it can happen to well just about anybody.

There's a possibility that Braylon Edwards could just be that good and put up another monster season with 1300 yards and 15 touchdowns. However with the lack of track record and shaky QB situation I'm not willing to risk a 2nd round pick or $35+ in auction money to find out.

 

[rzrback77]

Braylon Edwards has improved in every season with the Browns. I think that the Browns geared up in the off-season to make the playoffs this year. I do think that their WR stable is deeper with the addition of Stallworth and offenses are usually tougher to defend if they use all their weapons. Edwards, Winslow, Stallworth, and JJ, not to metntion the electric Josh Cribbs sounds tough. They should be able to spread the defense considerably with all those deep threats.

I also think that the Browns defense will be improved and the likelihood of abundant shoot-out games like in 07 will be reduced. I think that they may even be ahead more often and attempt to run the clock on some opponents. Additionally, I did not realize that Edwards had 16 TDs a year ago. Wow, regardless of how talented Edwards is, I see a slight decrease for 08 and especially TDs.

Braylon Edwards 135 targets 75 catches 1080 14.4 ypc and 11 TDs

 

[chook]

Other than an unforseen injury, there is no reason at all that Braylon will not finish as a top five receiver again in 2008, no matter who is the Cleveland QB. This kid is the real deal, and with his fitness and attitude now at the same level as his potential, he will remain one of the hardest matchups for opposition DB's for some time.

That being said, Cleveland do finish the season with a handful of games that are higly likely to be played in poor weather conditions similar to those games where Braylon put up his worst numbers in 2007.

He'll put up 83 receptions, 1179 yards, 13 TD's, in a slight regression from last year.

 

[chris1969]

Braylon Edwards has improved in every season with the Browns. I think that the Browns geared up in the off-season to make the playoffs this year. I do think that their WR stable is deeper with the addition of Stallworth and offenses are usually tougher to defend if they use all their weapons. Edwards, Winslow, Stallworth, and JJ, not to metntion the electric Josh Cribbs sounds tough. They should be able to spread the defense considerably with all those deep threats.I also think that the Browns defense will be improved and the likelihood of abundant shoot-out games like in 07 will be reduced. I think that they may even be ahead more often and attempt to run the clock on some opponents. Additionally, I did not realize that Edwards had 16 TDs a year ago. Wow, regardless of how talented Edwards is, I see a slight decrease for 08 and especially TDs.Braylon Edwards 135 targets 75 catches 1080 14.4 ypc and 11 TDs

I agree a lot that they will be a better team and that should reduce the shoot-outs, but they also have the 2nd hardest schedule, so the shoot-outs should continue another year.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

We have been debating the impact Stallworth will have in some of the other projections threads. A popular opinion was that the Browns passing stats would dip slightly but Edwards and Winslow would still "get theirs." When crunching the numbers, the other staffers felt that there was not enough offense to go around for Stallworth . . . does his signing have little to no impact on Edwards?

Stallworth won't cut deeply into the pie. Just look at how much he stole from the other offensive skill positions last year with the Patriots.

http://www.theclevelandfan.com/article_det...268&ref=STO

... The enigmatic Donte' Stallworth is a tough WR to figure out. What can Browns fans expect from their new free agent WR this year? Will we see the WR from last year who played like a house afire during a three game stretch where he hauled in 14 receptions for 251 yards and three TDs or will we see the player who began the year with 4 catches in the first three games totaling less than 30 yards without scoring or the WR from the last three games who only tallied 6 receptions for 66 yards without scoring?

Last year the New England Patriots offense had an unprecedented 50 passing TDs but Donte Stallworth only managed three of those fifty scores. By comparison WR Randy Moss, who tied Stallworth's team best 15.2 yard-per-catch average, hauled in an astounding twenty more TD passes than Stallworth...

... In 2007 Donte' signed with New England where he saw action in all 16 games but only managed 46 receptions along with 3 TDs. His average receptions per game fell under 3 to 2.9. Stallworth began the year by coming off the PUP list due to ongoing hamstring issues. Of the 16 games that he played in last year he only started nine, the early slow start may have been related to hamstring issues or that free agents tend to need time to acclimate to new teams however that was not the case with WRs Randy Moss or Wes Welker. The late season fade could be attributed to resting up for the post season but again, that did not apply to Moss or Welker. Considering the historic offensive numbers amassed by the rest of the Patriot passing attack the question persists, why did the Patriot passing production elude Donte' Stallworth?

Randy Moss draws coverage to his side of the field opening up things up for the position opposite of him. In 2005 when Randy Moss was in Oakland his #2 WR Jerry Porter hauled in 76 receptions for 942 yards to go with 8 scores. Last year Moss opened things up for Wes Welker who had 1,175 yards and 8 TDs on 112 catches over 16 games which breaks out to a neat seven receptions per game. Whereas Welker only had three games with a season low three receptions last year, Stallworth had ten games with three or less catches. One thing that should be pointed out is that QB Tom Brady had great protection and was afforded time to allow his first option to get open. He was not forced to check down to his second or third options and it appears that Stallworth was the third option in the Patriot pass catching pecking order. In the post season Stallworth failed to collect more than three catches or score in any single game...

... What do the Browns expect from the 27 year old, 6‘ foot tall, 196 lbs speedster?

Donte' comes in with his role clearly defined, ...

Go to the rest for a pretty encompassing deep look into what the Browns can expect from Donte' Stallworth this season but he doesn't appear to be a threat to the rest of the Browns recieving corps in terms of stealing numbers, esp TD numbers from them.

 

[massraider]

More catches, more yards, slightly less TDs.

He's a stud dripping with studlyness.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Braylon emerged as one of the top wide receivers in the game last season and heading into this season, it should be more of the same for Edwards. The improved offensive line is opening holes for Jamal Lewis and providing time for Anderson to look down field. Kellen Winslow provides another passing thread that defenses must concern themselves with so Edwards will be in for another quality fantasy season.

85 receptions 1180 yards and 11 td's

 

[Jon_Moore]

Edwards's situation just keeps getting better.

Last year they bring in Joe Thomas, the offensive line shows great improvement, Derek Anderson emerges as a very good quarterback, and Kellen Winslow really shows he's an elite talent that can keep defenses off of Edwards. This year, they go get Donte Stallworth, which will keep defenses even more honest. No, Stallworth will never be that stud he was supposed to be, but he can stretch the field and keep the double and triple teams off Edwards.

I do believe in regression towards the mean, so the Tds almost have to come down, but the rest could go up...

90 Receptions

1440 Yards

13 Tds

 

[Routilla]

Any updates on BE's availability for week 1 against Dallas? TIA.

 

[thehornet]

I'll apologize in advance, but Braylon is going to massively dissapoint the shark pool this year. He is a stud, no doubt about it, but he will never again score 16 TD's in a season. sorry.

82-1250-9

 

[bjabrad]

To recap:

Edwards has improved each season and really broke out last year. A major plus is his ability to haul down the red zone TD's.

His QB Derek Anderson broke out last year despite a lack of accuracy and a completion percentage of only about 55% and is considered over rated by some.

Kellen Winslow III is a great pass catching TE that either takes away from Edward's targets or keeps the defenses honest by serving as the default WR3 to keep double teams off of Edwards.

Donte Stallworth is the new WR that CLE brought over from New England who may help stretch the field deep and will probably take more Joe Jurevich's targets or possibly KWIII than Edwards since his impact in New England was minimal to the value of Randy Moss last year.

Most observers are fearful of a QB change to Brady Quinn that could lead to a disruption in the Anderson to Edwards tandem.

My thoughts are that since Braylon Edwards has improved every season and he is catching passes from a 55% accuracy QB that he is succeeding despite the limitations of his QB. If Brady Quinn could be at least as accurate as Anderson then it's not unreasonable to believe that Edward's receptions and yards could increase with a QB change but the extraordinarily high number of TD's will probably fall back to lower numbers than 2007. I see no reason to believe that Braylon Edwards will fall below WR #5 with either Anderson or Quinn.

 

[Art Vandalay]

Any updates on BE's availability for week 1 against Dallas? TIA.

Braylon Edwards-WR- Browns Aug. 27 - 10:15 am et Browns coach Romeo Crennel says he's been told Braylon Edwards (foot) "will be there and practicing" for the season opener next week.Crennel added that he'll feel better about the situation once he sees Edwards on the field. The Browns are being cautious with him, but there's no reason to believe he won't be ready for Week 1.