Player Spotlight: Chad Johnson (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Chad Johnson, WR, Cincinnati Bengals

Player Page Link: Ocho Cinco Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

Chad has always been a distraction off the field. This season he has taken it to new heights. However, I still believe he'll be his usual self on the field. Housh seems to be Carson's preference in the red zone, and I don't see that changing. I do think the Bengals will be slightly better this year (not a bold prediction considering last year's debacle), especially with a healthy committee of RBs. He's played in all 16 games over the past 5 seasons, adn while some may shy away because of his off the field noise, I won't, as Chad is not stupid enough (nor are the Bengals a tough enough organization) do keep Chad off the field in 2008. Overall, I'll say Chad puts up similar #s to his career averages:

90 catches 1400 yards 8 TDs

 

[Blackjacks]

All of this off season stuff will be under the bridge come the regular season. Say what you want about Chad but he loves football and I see no reason to put him outside of the top 5 this year. He has a great qb, he has a bad running game and his defense will leave the Bengals needing to catch up. I see no reason not to see Ocho Cinco shutting up this year, playing as hard as he can and having 92 catches for 1500 yards and 9 td's, one of his better seasons to date. Then next year he can start this whole process up again and his complaint will then be that he shut up, played his best and the Bengals still sucked. He will be able to get some of the blame off of him in his mind.

Good season to pick Chad though, I think he represents good value due to people thinking some of the bad words said this off season will cross over onto the field.

 

[unckeyherb]

90-1400-9....

....with 35%-40% coming over two games. Not worth it in H2H leagues, IMHO.

 

[JPeso]

90-1400-9........with 35%-40% coming over two games. Not worth it in H2H leagues, IMHO.

Too much is made of Chad's "inconsistency." Would you rather he only score 10 in those games he put up 40?In PPR, Chad had 3 single-digit gamesTop 20 Scorers in PPR, Single-Digit games0 - Wayne, Marshall1 - Fitz, Housh2 - Moss, Edwards, Holt, Jennings3 - Chad, Engram, Mason, Boldin4 - Owens, Cotchery5 - Colston, Welker, White6 - Burress, S. Smith, Curtis95, 1500, 9

 

[unckeyherb]

90-1400-9........with 35%-40% coming over two games. Not worth it in H2H leagues, IMHO.

Too much is made of Chad's "inconsistency." Would you rather he only score 10 in those games he put up 40?In PPR, Chad had 3 single-digit gamesTop 20 Scorers in PPR, Single-Digit games0 - Wayne, Marshall1 - Fitz, Housh2 - Moss, Edwards, Holt, Jennings3 - Chad, Engram, Mason, Boldin4 - Owens, Cotchery5 - Colston, Welker, White6 - Burress, S. Smith, Curtis95, 1500, 9

And in my NON-PPR league he had 10 single digit games last year and 10 single digit games the year before. And to answer your question about the 40 point games, of course I'd want him to put up 40. If he didn't he'd be WR34ish. However if you told me I could have Either:A. a guy that will give me 102 points over five random weeks but only 72 over the other 10 games equalling 174 points (caveat: you don't know the weeks he'll blow up) OR B. a guy that will put up a known 10 points a game no matter what, never more, never less over 15 games equalling 150 points. Its no question. In overall points you have me beat, but I play in a H2H league with no PPR. In that situation, my 10 point/game guy beats Chad 10-5. Not saying Chad doesn't end up with good points. He does, which is why he is worth even less, IMO. He has too much hype surrounding him for his end of year point totals, which in turn inflates his value. In FF I value known quantities. Especially at the lofty pick I will have to spend to get a guy like Ochne man's opinion.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

It seems like it would be easy to be down on Chad Johnson this season due to him wanting to be traded and some of the negativity associated with how he handles himself. Don't think too much about that, the guy if anything cares about how he performs on the field and won't let anything get in the way of him putting up quality individual numbers. I look for Chad Johnson to be decent value in fantasy drafts this upcoming season.

92 receptions for 1390 yards and 8 td's with 5 rushes for 40 yards

 

[bshipper]

I actually think that Chad's numbers we decrease (as will TJ's), and here is why. Last year those 2 had 205 of Carson's 373 completions. I think it is fair to say that the total number of completions will not increase, since the running game was so poor last year and is expected to carry more of the load this year. Of the remaining 168 completions, only 68 of them went to WR/TE. With the signing of Utecht and the added depth at WR with rookies and FA (Caldwell, Simpson, Chatman, Holt, Maxwell, Kelly, Coats), those 273 completions for WR/TE are going to be more spread out, especially if Chris Perry can stay on the field.

I am going to go low on Chad's projections, just to protect myself from the potential blow up.

77/1100/7

 

[The Man with the Plan]

If only fantasy football was played roto style then he'd be an absolute beast. I'll still draft him as a #1 fantasy wr because he's too good. Hopefully he doesn't get Keyshawned or TO'ed but that's the risk you have to take when drafting him.

 

[sholditch]

I think he breaks 1600 this year

105 for 1615 and 10 = for Chad in 09

 

[EBF]

Meet the new Chad. Same as the old Chad:

90 receptions, 1400 yards, 8 scores

This guy is in the bank. All the talk about inconsistency is overblown. I owned him in a PPR league from 2003-2007 and I remember him being VERY consistent those first few years. In the end, he always gets his numbers. He's one of the few receivers in the league who can be counted on to get you 85 catches and 1300+ yards every season. So while other players are flashier picks right now, #85 remains a solid WR1 in standard leagues.

 

[JPeso]

90-1400-9........with 35%-40% coming over two games. Not worth it in H2H leagues, IMHO.

Too much is made of Chad's "inconsistency." Would you rather he only score 10 in those games he put up 40?In PPR, Chad had 3 single-digit gamesTop 20 Scorers in PPR, Single-Digit games0 - Wayne, Marshall1 - Fitz, Housh2 - Moss, Edwards, Holt, Jennings3 - Chad, Engram, Mason, Boldin4 - Owens, Cotchery5 - Colston, Welker, White6 - Burress, S. Smith, Curtis95, 1500, 9

And in my NON-PPR league he had 10 single digit games last year and 10 single digit games the year before. And to answer your question about the 40 point games, of course I'd want him to put up 40. If he didn't he'd be WR34ish. However if you told me I could have Either:A. a guy that will give me 102 points over five random weeks but only 72 over the other 10 games equalling 174 points (caveat: you don't know the weeks he'll blow up) OR B. a guy that will put up a known 10 points a game no matter what, never more, never less over 15 games equalling 150 points. Its no question. In overall points you have me beat, but I play in a H2H league with no PPR. In that situation, my 10 point/game guy beats Chad 10-5. Not saying Chad doesn't end up with good points. He does, which is why he is worth even less, IMO. He has too much hype surrounding him for his end of year point totals, which in turn inflates his value. In FF I value known quantities. Especially at the lofty pick I will have to spend to get a guy like Ochne man's opinion.

If you got burned by him, I understand, but even in non-PPR scoring, Chad finished 6th, and of course, all WRs have many more single-point games.Top 20 Scorers in no PPR, Single-Digit games3 - Jennings4 - Owens5 - Edwards6 - Randy, Holmes7 - Wayne, Housh, Colston, Boldin9 - Marshall, Burress, Welker, Holt, Engram, White10 - Chad, S. Smith11 - Mason12 - Curtis

 

[David Yudkin]

90-1400-9........with 35%-40% coming over two games. Not worth it in H2H leagues, IMHO.

Over his career, Johnson's 7 highest scoring weeks = 281 points scored = 31.1 ppg. In his 101 other games he's averaged 9.2 ppg.9.2 ppg = 147 fantasy points over 16 games = WR 15-20 production.So CJ is basically a Top 15-20 WR 14 weeks out of the season but a god for one or two weeks. If he has one mega game he will end up Top 10. If he has two monster games he will push the Top 5. That pretty much holds true for his career so far.

 

[EBF]

90-1400-9........with 35%-40% coming over two games. Not worth it in H2H leagues, IMHO.

Over his career, Johnson's 7 highest scoring weeks = 281 points scored = 31.1 ppg. In his 101 other games he's averaged 9.2 ppg.9.2 ppg = 147 fantasy points over 16 games = WR 15-20 production.So CJ is basically a Top 15-20 WR 14 weeks out of the season but a god for one or two weeks. If he has one mega game he will end up Top 10. If he has two monster games he will push the Top 5. That pretty much holds true for his career so far.

In 2005 he had at least 50 receiving yards in 15/16 games.In 2004 he had at least 50 receiving yards in 12/16 games. He has gotten a bum rap for inconsistency because his production has been a bit sporadic each of the past two years, but he's capable of being extremely consistent. People are reading way too much into the feast-or-famine thing IMO.

 

[David Yudkin]

90-1400-9........with 35%-40% coming over two games. Not worth it in H2H leagues, IMHO.

Over his career, Johnson's 7 highest scoring weeks = 281 points scored = 31.1 ppg. In his 101 other games he's averaged 9.2 ppg.9.2 ppg = 147 fantasy points over 16 games = WR 15-20 production.So CJ is basically a Top 15-20 WR 14 weeks out of the season but a god for one or two weeks. If he has one mega game he will end up Top 10. If he has two monster games he will push the Top 5. That pretty much holds true for his career so far.

In 2005 he had at least 50 receiving yards in 15/16 games.In 2004 he had at least 50 receiving yards in 12/16 games. He has gotten a bum rap for inconsistency because his production has been a bit sporadic each of the past two years, but he's capable of being extremely consistent. People are reading way too much into the feast-or-famine thing IMO.

I'm not arguing either side of this, as you have to take what you get when you get it.ut as you indicated, he had decent YARDAGE weeks, but having a stretch of 50 yard weeks and no TDs really isn't helping your team much.In 2007, he scored 10 or more fantasy points 6 times (and only 3 of his last 13 weeks). Ditto the 6 weeks of 10+ points in 2006.Here were the # of times each of the other Top WR scored 10+ points in 0 PPR leagues . . .Moss 12Owens 11Edwards 11Colston 9Wayne 9Housh 9Fitzgerald 7Marshall 7Burress 7Welker 7As I said, I think the consistency issue is a bid melodramatic, but there are those that rather get a steady Eddy than a home run or strikout type. IMO, CJ is a better Survivor league/best ball league option as someone can pick up the slack when he puts up pedestrian numbers.

 

[unckeyherb]

If you got burned by him, I understand, but even in non-PPR scoring, Chad finished 6th, and of course, all WRs have many more single-point games.Top 20 Scorers in no PPR, Single-Digit games3 - Jennings4 - Owens5 - Edwards6 - Randy, Holmes7 - Wayne, Housh, Colston, Boldin9 - Marshall, Burress, Welker, Holt, Engram, White10 - Chad, S. Smith11 - Mason12 - Curtis

yeah I did get burned by him. Two years in a row. And don't get me wrong, I'm not saying I think he's crap, frankly, I can't say that I won't draft him again this year. His upside is hard to ignore, no question. I just feel that in my specific league, (which is H2H) I'd rather skip him and go for a guy like Housh a round later, fully knowing that TJ's end of year totals won't be as high as CJ's. But also knowing what to expect from Housh week to week. Thats all.

 

[EBF]

90-1400-9........with 35%-40% coming over two games. Not worth it in H2H leagues, IMHO.

Over his career, Johnson's 7 highest scoring weeks = 281 points scored = 31.1 ppg. In his 101 other games he's averaged 9.2 ppg.9.2 ppg = 147 fantasy points over 16 games = WR 15-20 production.So CJ is basically a Top 15-20 WR 14 weeks out of the season but a god for one or two weeks. If he has one mega game he will end up Top 10. If he has two monster games he will push the Top 5. That pretty much holds true for his career so far.

In 2005 he had at least 50 receiving yards in 15/16 games.In 2004 he had at least 50 receiving yards in 12/16 games. He has gotten a bum rap for inconsistency because his production has been a bit sporadic each of the past two years, but he's capable of being extremely consistent. People are reading way too much into the feast-or-famine thing IMO.

I'm not arguing either side of this, as you have to take what you get when you get it.ut as you indicated, he had decent YARDAGE weeks, but having a stretch of 50 yard weeks and no TDs really isn't helping your team much.In 2007, he scored 10 or more fantasy points 6 times (and only 3 of his last 13 weeks). Ditto the 6 weeks of 10+ points in 2006.Here were the # of times each of the other Top WR scored 10+ points in 0 PPR leagues . . .Moss 12Owens 11Edwards 11Colston 9Wayne 9Housh 9Fitzgerald 7Marshall 7Burress 7Welker 7As I said, I think the consistency issue is a bid melodramatic, but there are those that rather get a steady Eddy than a home run or strikout type. IMO, CJ is a better Survivor league/best ball league option as someone can pick up the slack when he puts up pedestrian numbers.

There's no doubt that his inconsistency was disappointing last year, but it's only one season. 16 games is not very many. One or two fluke passes can skew things in either direction. The bottom line for me is that over the past 5-6 years he's been one of the top 3-4 receivers in the NFL. There may be other guys who have more upside, but CJ is a bankable star in the prime of his career. You pretty much KNOW he's good for 1200-1400 yards. That has a lot of value.

 

[Jeff Tefertiller]

The question I have is why are people avoiding Chad Johnson because of inconsistency but are sold on Kevin Curtis? I realize we are talking different tiers but it baffles me. Johnson's average week (non huge weeks) is at a good level. Curtis' is very low.

Chad Johnson is a steal in fantasy drafts. In the mock for the FBG mag, I was able to get CJ in the late 4th round. This is not uncommon.

85 catches

1250 yards

8 TDs

Once again a top 10 WR.

 

[Jon_Moore]

The question I have is why are people avoiding Chad Johnson because of inconsistency but are sold on Kevin Curtis? I realize we are talking different tiers but it baffles me. Johnson's average week (non huge weeks) is at a good level. Curtis' is very low. Chad Johnson is a steal in fantasy drafts. In the mock for the FBG mag, I was able to get CJ in the late 4th round. This is not uncommon. 85 catches1250 yards8 TDsOnce again a top 10 WR.

I would avoid him in Round 2, and most of 3. If he's there in the 4th though, I'd love to pick him up.

 

[geoff8695]

90-1400-9........with 35%-40% coming over two games. Not worth it in H2H leagues, IMHO.

Over his career, Johnson's 7 highest scoring weeks = 281 points scored = 31.1 ppg. In his 101 other games he's averaged 9.2 ppg.9.2 ppg = 147 fantasy points over 16 games = WR 15-20 production.So CJ is basically a Top 15-20 WR 14 weeks out of the season but a god for one or two weeks. If he has one mega game he will end up Top 10. If he has two monster games he will push the Top 5. That pretty much holds true for his career so far.

In 2005 he had at least 50 receiving yards in 15/16 games.In 2004 he had at least 50 receiving yards in 12/16 games. He has gotten a bum rap for inconsistency because his production has been a bit sporadic each of the past two years, but he's capable of being extremely consistent. People are reading way too much into the feast-or-famine thing IMO.

I used to pay a lot more attention to 'consistency' of fantasy scoring on a weekly basis and it actually led me to seek out CJ based on his 2003, 2004, & 2005 performances. Wish I could explain his 'inconsistency' over the last couple of seasons. It's not like his role in the offense or # of targets has changed significantly.

 

[radballs]

First of all, haven't we concluded here that players are not necessarily "inconsistent" from week to week or year to year? In other words, there's no predictive value to a player's assumed consistency week to week. So, let's throw that out.

Second of all, when you're drafting a "Team" it's not about one player, it's about compiling and managing a portfolio that balances the risks associated with acquiring players who seem "safe" and some who might be "risky with lots of upside".

For the people talking about Chad's consistency and/or that he's better in total points leagues, I just don't get it. The rest of your team is going to be inconsistent as well. So is your opponent's team. Isn't Chad's 40 points just as likely to win you a game when your other players stink as vice versa? Or, isn't it just as likely that you need all those points to defeat your opponent? I guess some people here not only want, but think you can draft a team that always scores within 20% of its high and low weeks. Doesn't work that way people as far as I can tell.

 

[radballs]

I would avoid him in Round 2, and most of 3. If he's there in the 4th though, I'd love to pick him up.

Are you referring to an eight team league? He's going in the early to mid 3rd now and his stock is only going to rise as people realize his off season noise was nonsense that won't affect his game this year. In ppr leagues, he'll be going in the mid second by September.

 

[teamroc]

There's no doubt that his inconsistency was disappointing last year, but it's only one season. 16 games is not very many. One or two fluke passes can skew things in either direction. The bottom line for me is that over the past 5-6 years he's been one of the top 3-4 receivers in the NFL. There may be other guys who have more upside, but CJ is a bankable star in the prime of his career. You pretty much KNOW he's good for 1200-1400 yards. That has a lot of value.

It's not "a lot of value" if he's being taken in the 2nd round. Moss was a bankable star in his prime in Oakland. That didn't turn out so well. CJ is very quickly heading down a Moss path, and Cinci is closer to the Raiders then the Pats. CJs offseason is a warning sign. Whether he gets suspended, pouts, pulls a "hammy" we'll see.I've had CJ the last two years also, and he disappears. Last year was brutal. 12 games, 0 tds, once had 100 yards. He was basically a black, dancing Kevin Curtis last year. Sure loved those 3 weeks of 30+ pts, but the rest of the season he was a dog. I've never seen a top 10 WR that was as boom or bust as CJ the last 2 years. In non-ppr he's a trainwreck. If you take him anywhere near his ADP in non-ppr you got ripped off.

 

[Jon_Moore]

Everyone knows the story by now. Over the last 2 years, he disappears on you more often than he shows up, but then he shows up to the tune of 15 catches, 200 yards, and 3 tds. Still, over the last 5 years, he's only had one season in which he didn't catch 90 balls--that was 87. In those same 5 seasons, he only missed 1300 once--1274. He's a mortal lock for the top 10, but week to week he's far from reliable.

He's as talented as they come. Great hands, ridiculously fast, knows how to read defenses. Has a pro-bowler across from him to keep the defense from putting the entire secondary on him. He's got one of the best quarterbacks in the league to get him the ball anywhere on the field. He's got a defense that can't stop anyone, so the Bengals will throw 500+ times once again.

The running game has to be much improved, with a rested Rudi, a healthy Perry and Watson/Dorsey. This should make the defenses key less on the pass, and the passing game much more efficient.

94 Receptions

1428 Yards

9 TDs

Very little difference in last season

 

[Jon_Moore]

I would avoid him in Round 2, and most of 3. If he's there in the 4th though, I'd love to pick him up.

Are you referring to an eight team league? He's going in the early to mid 3rd now and his stock is only going to rise as people realize his off season noise was nonsense that won't affect his game this year. In ppr leagues, he'll be going in the mid second by September.

I'm too l azy to double quote it, but someone else said he was going in the 4th, I simply responded to it.

 

[BigRed]

He was basically a black, dancing Kevin Curtis last year.

lmaoWith a gay nickname to boot. Yep too much disappearing for me to be willing to pay his cost. Those few monster games way inflate his stats.