Player Spotlight: Chris Ivory, RB, New York Jets (1 Viewer)

[FF Ninja]

What I think is being lost here is that a good running game can, in and of itself, keep the other team from pulling away. If you can control the clock, you can still put the brakes on an explosive offense by limiting time of possession.

I get the "control the bleeding" technique, but ultimately if that even works, how long can you do that for before you have to give in and try to score points? Maybe a half? It's not a winning strategy. I hear people talk about keeping the other offense off the field, but if they are scoring when they're on it and you're not, it doesn't matter if you limit them to 20 minutes ToP. A seven minute drive that nets zero points is going to make your defensive stats look better, but you're still going to lose.

 

[FF Ninja]

Can people please remember that Shonn Greene put up back to back 1,000 yard seasons and finished as the 14th best fantasy RB in 2012. The OL is improved with Peterman and Colon at Guard and Austin Howard has another years experience at RT. We have no red zone threat whatsoever so I can see a situation where Ivory gets double digit TD's, but 6-8 is very realistic. Powell and Goodson's presence means he won't get 300 carries but 225+ seems about right. 4.5 ypc would get him 1,000 yards. Solid RB2.

The offensive line is the one aspect that makes me want to take a gamble on Goodson here. But you guys don't just lack a red zone threat, you lack any passing/receiving threat. You don't need to worry about who gets carries in the red zone because you won't be spending much time there. In the last 3 years the Jets are averaging less than 10 rushing TDs as a team, yet people here are projecting 10+ TDs for Ivory. Madness. Add that to the fact that your defense has been getting worse each year, so you'll probably be forced to pass more which means more 3 and outs and more running plays for the other teams. This leads to less offensive plays for the Jets. In 2011, the Jets RBs rushed the ball 397 times and in 2012 they rushed it 427 times. They averaged 3.9 ypc. With the defense getting worse and the passing attack staying the same, I think they're down to 380 RB rushes. How those are split up really depends on how many games Ivory plays. What is the over/under on games played this season? I'm guessing he plays in 10 games.

The new WCO, improved running game and better OL will make this offense better. We had 2.9 Red Zone attempts per game last season which was 20th in the league. Tampa Bay (2.8) and Cleveland (2.4) both had less, but Doug Martin and Trent Richardson both had 11 rushing TD's. 10 TD's is not implausible for Ivory. I also don't think our defense is getting worse. It will be top 10 yet again this year, but that's a different issue.

Where did you find that red zone stat? Tampa had some semblance of a passing threat to help out Martin and I'm sorry, but Ivory <> Richardson. I don't think 10 TD's is impossible for Ivory, just extremely unlikely even if he plays 16 games, which is also extremely unlikely. As for you statement that the Jets defense is not getting worse and finishing top 10 again... I'll just leave this here:Year PPG Rank2012 23.4 20th2011 22.7 20th2010 19.0 6th2009 14.8 1st

I just googled Red Zone attempts and there was that stat. It's an irrelevant stat but I was proving that your point was also. Ivory has had 8 career TD's. They were: 1, 1, 3, 6, 22, 35, 55 and 56 yards. Only 50% of his TD's actually came in a goal line situation. You could also look at Yards per Game where we were 8th, 5th, 3rd and 1st. Still going in the wrong direction but we've got rid of dead weight like Bart Scott and are younger and faster on defense this year. Not to mention two first round picks who, if they live up to their billing, will make a sizeable impact. I firmly believe Rex Ryan is one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL.

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Can people please remember that Shonn Greene put up back to back 1,000 yard seasons and finished as the 14th best fantasy RB in 2012. The OL is improved with Peterman and Colon at Guard and Austin Howard has another years experience at RT. We have no red zone threat whatsoever so I can see a situation where Ivory gets double digit TD's, but 6-8 is very realistic. Powell and Goodson's presence means he won't get 300 carries but 225+ seems about right. 4.5 ypc would get him 1,000 yards. Solid RB2.

The 14th best fantasy RB is not good. 1000 rushing yards for a player that starts all 16 games is not good. Any RB that starts all 16 games is going to accumulate stats. Look at Greene's average points per game. I bet your sweet tuckus that he is far lower than the 14th best fantasy RB using that metric. I like Ivory's game, but he's an unproven commodity on a bad offense. Draft accordingly.

14th best RB would be great value for Ivory at his current ADP (26th after a quick google). Solid RB2, like I said. We're talking about fantasy football. I don't care how my RB scores points, or how well he is performing on the field if he is doing the job in my fantasy team. Ivory is far better than Greene from what we've seen so I was using Greene as a baseline of what a back in this offense can do. I don't think Ivory will get as many carries but that's where his superior talent allows him to produce similar fantasy numbers.

It's not an irrelevant stat and you disproved nothing. Sure, a couple guys who are either better than Ivory and/or in better situations were able to score 10 TDs with a similar number of red zone trips per game. That doesn't mean anything. Ivory is moving to a team that has little to no passing threat near the goal line on the off chance they actually make it there. It is going to be tough sledding for him. And yes racked up a few long TDs while on the Saints, but I suspect he'll find the defensive fronts are going to be a bit different without Drew Brees around. Plus, I think you'd find a lot of players score half their TDs away from the goal line. That doesn't somehow mean that they don't need goal line carries to score double digit TDs.

As for your rebuttal about defensive yards per game, pointless. No one cares how many yards they gave up. If your crappy offense is playing from behind, Ivory probably won't be in the game. I like your optimism, but let's face it, you are relying on rookies for your defense to get better and you just lost the best CB in the game. It had to happen - he was asking too much and coming off of injury - but you still lost him. Bart Scott was not good, either. But that doesn't mean his replacement is going to be better. I won't be shocked if the Jets go 4-12.

And as someone else pointed out, Greene simply compiled stats by playing all 16 games. He finished the year as RB15, but his points per game were not very impressive. Plus, he was not in a timeshare. If Goodson isn't cut for behavior, which I don't think he will be, then he's going to have a much more prominent role than Powell did last year.

 

[Phenix]

What I think is being lost here is that a good running game can, in and of itself, keep the other team from pulling away. If you can control the clock, you can still put the brakes on an explosive offense by limiting time of possession.

I get the "control the bleeding" technique, but ultimately if that even works, how long can you do that for before you have to give in and try to score points? Maybe a half? It's not a winning strategy. I hear people talk about keeping the other offense off the field, but if they are scoring when they're on it and you're not, it doesn't matter if you limit them to 20 minutes ToP. A seven minute drive that nets zero points is going to make your defensive stats look better, but you're still going to lose.

Your hate for him is unreal, while his talent is undeniable.

Anyone who listens to what you have to say on this topic is not gonna get anything from it when they are trying to really learn something about a player. You are unbelievably bias towards a guy who has had a great track record when on the field and has huge upside, and is the unquestioned hoss on his new team.

I really think your hatred toward one player is funny, so bias anyone who is blind can see it. They can read all your hatred here

 

[Dr. Octopus]

It's not an irrelevant stat and you disproved nothing. Sure, a couple guys who are either better than Ivory and/or in better situations were able to score 10 TDs with a similar number of red zone trips per game. That doesn't mean anything. Ivory is moving to a team that has little to no passing threat near the goal line on the off chance they actually make it there. It is going to be tough sledding for him. And yes racked up a few long TDs while on the Saints, but I suspect he'll find the defensive fronts are going to be a bit different without Drew Brees around. Plus, I think you'd find a lot of players score half their TDs away from the goal line. That doesn't somehow mean that they don't need goal line carries to score double digit TDs.

As for your rebuttal about defensive yards per game, pointless. No one cares how many yards they gave up. If your crappy offense is playing from behind, Ivory probably won't be in the game. I like your optimism, but let's face it, you are relying on rookies for your defense to get better and you just lost the best CB in the game. It had to happen - he was asking too much and coming off of injury - but you still lost him. Bart Scott was not good, either. But that doesn't mean his replacement is going to be better. I won't be shocked if the Jets go 4-12.

And as someone else pointed out, Greene simply compiled stats by playing all 16 games. He finished the year as RB15, but his points per game were not very impressive. Plus, he was not in a timeshare. If Goodson isn't cut for behavior, which I don't think he will be, then he's going to have a much more prominent role than Powell did last year.

I certainly wouldn't be shocked to see the Jets go 4-12 either, but not sure that's entirely relevant to this topic. Is you stance that RBs on bad teams perform poorly for fantasy purposes, because I'm sure that can be quickly rebutted?

As far as some of your other statements, a team is in trouble if it it relying on two top 13 pick rookies? Really? I could give you many examples of impact rookie defenders if we need to go there as well - especially at CB and DL.

Once again - the Jets defense isn't terrible. Yes the statistical trends are downward - but some of that is due to 27 turnovers by their QB. That's going to change one way or the other this season. Sanchez will improve in that aspect or Smith will see the field. By no means do I expect the Jets to be an offensive juggernaut, but with just adequate QB play they can be decent. Holmes will be back, Hill should improve in year two and showed flashes of big play ability (albeit with inconsistent hands), and Jeremy Kereley is a good slot WR. Holmes and Kerley have the quickness to thrive in a WCO - once again assuming adequate QB play.

You also claim Greene put up his numbers without being in a timeshare - a quick look at his career will show that just isn't true either. He's always had another RB in the mix, even last season Bilal Powell received 110 carries. and was used as the 3rd down back. Greene did see 276 carries in 2012 so, yes he was the main ball carrier. Ivory may not see those 276 carries but he is a much more explosive back than Greene and I'd expect him to be better than Greene's 3.9 ypc. He has better speed, more power, and more agility than Greene.

The Jets feature a better than average o-line and (on paper) and should be improved there as well. Ivory, Goodson (if he sticks) and Powell all have potential to move the ball behind a decent line - and in a WCO "stacking the box" is a very dangerous proposition as a quick slant or dumpoff can become a big play in a hurry with no safety support.

As far as the ppg v. season long stats argument. I certainly understand the premise, but at RB solid every week production isn't a bad thing from your RB2. Would you rather have a RB2 that averages 12 ppg over 16 weeks or a RB2 that averages 16 ppg over 7 weeks?, bearing in mind of course how difficult it is to find RB production on the waiver wire to replace you injured starter. This discussion is also irrlevant, as well though, since none of us know whether Ivory or any other RB are going to miss games and if so how many - sure we could speculate based on past injuries, but we all know that RBs are healthy, until they're not, or that RBs that were once considered "injury prone" went on to churn out multiple healthy seasons in a row.

You call it "hype" if some one feels differently about a player's chance to succeed than you do. Others may just call it a different opion or a projection. I don't see many people getting carried away here in this thread, unless of course in your mindset predicting 200 carries for a RB is getting "carried away".

 

[Coeur de Lion]

What I think is being lost here is that a good running game can, in and of itself, keep the other team from pulling away. If you can control the clock, you can still put the brakes on an explosive offense by limiting time of possession.

I get the "control the bleeding" technique, but ultimately if that even works, how long can you do that for before you have to give in and try to score points? Maybe a half? It's not a winning strategy. I hear people talk about keeping the other offense off the field, but if they are scoring when they're on it and you're not, it doesn't matter if you limit them to 20 minutes ToP. A seven minute drive that nets zero points is going to make your defensive stats look better, but you're still going to lose.

Your hate for him is unreal, while his talent is undeniable.

Anyone who listens to what you have to say on this topic is not gonna get anything from it when they are trying to really learn something about a player. You are unbelievably bias towards a guy who has had a great track record when on the field and has huge upside, and is the unquestioned hoss on his new team.

I really think your hatred toward one player is funny, so bias anyone who is blind can see it. They can read all your hatred here

The Saints evidently found Ivory's talent pretty deniable -- they gave pretty much every RB on the roster more touches than him then dumped him for a 4th round pick.

NFL GMs as a whole find it deniable -- every team had a chance to sign him to an offer sheet, no one did. Every team had a chance to trade for him, he brought in a mere 4th in a RB-poor draft year. Mediocre players like Shonn Greene and Rashard Mendehall signed significantly more lucrative contracts this offseason.

The Jets find it pretty deniable -- they actually gave more money to the other RB they brought in, Mike Goodson.

Finally, Greene himself evidently isn't sold on his own talent -- he took the Jets' bottom of the barrel $2 million / year offer rather than play out the year on his tender and hit UFA next year.

Hatred? Try being realistic...

 

[FF Ninja]

It's not an irrelevant stat and you disproved nothing. Sure, a couple guys who are either better than Ivory and/or in better situations were able to score 10 TDs with a similar number of red zone trips per game. That doesn't mean anything. Ivory is moving to a team that has little to no passing threat near the goal line on the off chance they actually make it there. It is going to be tough sledding for him. And yes racked up a few long TDs while on the Saints, but I suspect he'll find the defensive fronts are going to be a bit different without Drew Brees around. Plus, I think you'd find a lot of players score half their TDs away from the goal line. That doesn't somehow mean that they don't need goal line carries to score double digit TDs. As for your rebuttal about defensive yards per game, pointless. No one cares how many yards they gave up. If your crappy offense is playing from behind, Ivory probably won't be in the game. I like your optimism, but let's face it, you are relying on rookies for your defense to get better and you just lost the best CB in the game. It had to happen - he was asking too much and coming off of injury - but you still lost him. Bart Scott was not good, either. But that doesn't mean his replacement is going to be better. I won't be shocked if the Jets go 4-12. And as someone else pointed out, Greene simply compiled stats by playing all 16 games. He finished the year as RB15, but his points per game were not very impressive. Plus, he was not in a timeshare. If Goodson isn't cut for behavior, which I don't think he will be, then he's going to have a much more prominent role than Powell did last year.

I certainly wouldn't be shocked to see the Jets go 4-12 either, but not sure that's entirely relevant to this topic. Is you stance that RBs on bad teams perform poorly for fantasy purposes, because I'm sure that can be quickly rebutted? As far as some of your other statements, a team is in trouble if it it relying on two top 13 pick rookies? Really? I could give you many examples of impact rookie defenders if we need to go there as well - especially at CB and DL. Once again - the Jets defense isn't terrible. Yes the statistical trends are downward - but some of that is due to 27 turnovers by their QB. That's going to change one way or the other this season. Sanchez will improve in that aspect or Smith will see the field. By no means do I expect the Jets to be an offensive juggernaut, but with just adequate QB play they can be decent. Holmes will be back, Hill should improve in year two and showed flashes of big play ability (albeit with inconsistent hands), and Jeremy Kereley is a good slot WR. Holmes and Kerley have the quickness to thrive in a WCO - once again assuming adequate QB play. You also claim Greene put up his numbers without being in a timeshare - a quick look at his career will show that just isn't true either. He's always had another RB in the mix, even last season Bilal Powell received 110 carries. and was used as the 3rd down back. Greene did see 276 carries in 2012 so, yes he was the main ball carrier. Ivory may not see those 276 carries but he is a much more explosive back than Greene and I'd expect him to be better than Greene's 3.9 ypc. He has better speed, more power, and more agility than Greene. The Jets feature a better than average o-line and (on paper) and should be improved there as well. Ivory, Goodson (if he sticks) and Powell all have potential to move the ball behind a decent line - and in a WCO "stacking the box" is a very dangerous proposition as a quick slant or dumpoff can become a big play in a hurry with no safety support. As far as the ppg v. season long stats argument. I certainly understand the premise, but at RB solid every week production isn't a bad thing from your RB2. Would you rather have a RB2 that averages 12 ppg over 16 weeks or a RB2 that averages 16 ppg over 7 weeks?, bearing in mind of course how difficult it is to find RB production on the waiver wire to replace you injured starter. This discussion is also irrlevant, as well though, since none of us know whether Ivory or any other RB are going to miss games and if so how many - sure we could speculate based on past injuries, but we all know that RBs are healthy, until they're not, or that RBs that were once considered "injury prone" went on to churn out multiple healthy seasons in a row. You call it "hype" if some one feels differently about a player's chance to succeed than you do. Others may just call it a different opion or a projection. I don't see many people getting carried away here in this thread, unless of course in your mindset predicting 200 carries for a RB is getting "carried away".

I totally agree that it isn't entirely relevant to the topic. If you read it again, the context is pretty clear that it was more of an aside than a main point. The guy seems quite optimistic about the offense and the defense so I was just pointing out that the combination they've currently got is not worth getting excited about. We're looking at a bad team. And yes, I'm sure you can point out a lot of impact rookies and for every one of them I can point out four non-impact early 1st round rookies. As for Greene, you are really splitting hairs here. Again you aren't taking context into account. I acknowledge Powell's presence last year and specifically said that Goodson will likely have a larger role. Every player has some sort of split. Nobody gets 100% of the carries. My point was pretty clearly that the Ivory-Goodson split won't be nearly as lopsided as the Greene-Powell split. And no, a different mindset is certainly not hype, although Phenix seems to think a different mindset represents bias (when will that dunce learn how to conjugate that word?). I just consider projections that defy reason to be hype. In this case, people see two guys get signed to very similar contracts and one guy who can't stay healthy yet they project bellcow numbers for the one guy who can't stay on the field. On top of that, they give him double digit touchdowns despite the fact that the Jets RB corps has averaged under 10 TDs per season for the past 3 seasons. So a realistic view is that there will be a fairly even split, the injured guy will not play 16 games, and no one single player will score 10 TDs. So yes, 200+ carries, 1000+ yards, 10+ TDs = unrealistic. A bunch of people being unrealistic = hype.Edit: removed strange double quote

 

[Dr. Octopus]

On top of that, they give him double digit touchdowns despite the fact that the Jets RB corps has averaged under 10 TDs per season for the past 3 seasons. So a realistic view is that there will be a fairly even split, the injured guy will not play 16 games, and no one single player will score 10 TDs. So yes, 200+ carries, 1000+ yards, 10+ TDs = unrealistic. A bunch of people being unrealistic = hype.Edit: removed strange double quote

Jets had 12 rushing TDs in 2012

Jets had 14 rushing TDs in 2011 - Sanchez scored 6 of them. I know you framed your argument as "RB corps." to make your point seem strong, but almost every one of Sanchize's rushing TDs were designed runs - either a roll out or sneak.

Jets had 14 rushing TDs in 2010 - with 4 of them coming from QBs (5 if you want to call wildcat QB Brad Smith a QB and not a runner).

So once again because you don't see a power back that will be used on the GL that can also break long TD runs scoring 10 TDs next season that's "unrealistic" and hype to project it?

200 carries is unrealistic because you say it is? What if it's 230 (Ivory) 170 (Goodson) and 94 (others) - Jets had 494 carries last season.

1,000 yards on 230 carries is 4.3 ypc - Is that unrealistic and hype?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I personally don't have huge issue with people projecting him for right around 1000 yards rushing as far as an upside projection -- I'm definitely taking the under but that's not a ridiculous number.

The bigger issue is with the receiving totals -- Ivory has 3 career catches and the receiving game is a relative strength for both Goodson and Powell. I don't think it's reasonable to project any significant receiving totals for Ivory at all.

Nor do I think double digit TDs is likely at all. Greene isn't dynamic, but he was / is a solid power RB. They added a more mobile QB in the draft. I also wouldn't project any player outside of the handful of unquestioned 3 down studs to get 70+% of a team's rushing TDs.

The bigger issue I really have is that projecting Ivory to play 16 games with a vastly larger workload than he's seen since HS seems a huge leap of faith -- this is a guy that missed a bunch of time every year in NO despite getting RB4 touches.

Also, upside <> baseline. Could Ivory hit about 1000 / 7 rushing with negligible receiving? Sure, if he's healthy all year and either Goodson or Powell miss a big chunk of time, and / or the Jets really improve. Is it the most likely / median / reasonable baseline? IMO not even close. Far more likely that the Jets implode under a lame duck coach, implementing yet another new offense with a bunch of new young players, and having lost their best player overall and their likely two best offensive players the past few years (Keller / Greene, although Holmes might have an argument here). Ivory and Goodson both miss a decent number of games based on their histories, and when they are healthy, it's a three way split between three average at best RBs in a bottom 5 offense. All three get 500-700 YFS with 3-5 TDs and none have any fantasy value at all.

 

[FF Ninja]

On top of that, they give him double digit touchdowns despite the fact that the Jets RB corps has averaged under 10 TDs per season for the past 3 seasons. So a realistic view is that there will be a fairly even split, the injured guy will not play 16 games, and no one single player will score 10 TDs. So yes, 200+ carries, 1000+ yards, 10+ TDs = unrealistic. A bunch of people being unrealistic = hype.Edit: removed strange double quote

Jets had 12 rushing TDs in 2012

Jets had 14 rushing TDs in 2011 - Sanchez scored 6 of them. I know you framed your argument as "RB corps." to make your point seem strong, but almost every one of Sanchize's rushing TDs were designed runs - either a roll out or sneak.

Jets had 14 rushing TDs in 2010 - with 4 of them coming from QBs (5 if you want to call wildcat QB Brad Smith a QB and not a runner).

So once again because you don't see a power back that will be used on the GL that can also break long TD runs scoring 10 TDs next season that's "unrealistic" and hype to project it?

200 carries is unrealistic because you say it is? What if it's 230 (Ivory) 170 (Goodson) and 94 (others) - Jets had 494 carries last season.

1,000 yards on 230 carries is 4.3 ypc - Is that unrealistic and hype?

I didn't phrase it "to make my point seem strong". I did it because Ivory is not a quarterback. Do you think Sanchez will be utilized differently? Greene may not be impressive in many aspects, but one thing he was good at was short yardage conversion. Ivory is a better open field runner, but I don't think he's any better than Greene at the goal line, so I don't think they're going to eliminate an aspect of their offense just to give Ivory more goal line touches. I stand by my use of rushing touchdowns by running backs when looking at historical stats for projecting a running back.

And I've seen this argument a few times in the SP. You can break down one aspect at a time and say "is this unrealistic, is this unrealistic". No, no single aspect is unrealistic. What is unrealistic is expecting everything to happen at the same time. Is it unrealistic for me to predict I flip heads on one flip? No. It is unrealistic for me to predict six in a row? Yes.

Ivory could play 16 games, he could see 70% of the snaps at RB, he could score 10 TDs, he could catch 20 passes (or could he?). Each aspect is less than a 50% chance, but no, I wouldn't say each aspect is unrealistic. Saying all four of those things will happen is absolutely unrealistic. As for the hype, I'm speaking in general. Have a look at the Ivory thread that started before he was traded. So much hype. People like Phenix talking out their ***, hyping his talent based off half a season in a dynamic offense is what I consider hype. These projections for 16 games, 230 carries, 1000+ yards, 10+ TDs, 20+ receptions... those are just bad projections.

The Jets did not have 494 running back carries last season. They had 427 last year and 397 before that. So yeah, 230 carries for Ivory and 170 carries for Goodson, probably unrealistic.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Ivory could play 16 games, he could see 70% of the snaps at RB, he could score 10 TDs, he could catch 20 passes (or could he?). Each aspect is less than a 50% chance, but no, I wouldn't say each aspect is unrealistic. Saying all four of those things will happen is absolutely unrealistic. As for the hype, I'm speaking in general. Have a look at the Ivory thread that started before he was traded. So much hype. People like Phenix talking out their ***, hyping his talent based off half a season in a dynamic offense is what I consider hype. These projections for 16 games, 230 carries, 1000+ yards, 10+ TDs, 20+ receptions... those are just bad projections.

Not really, because each of them leads into the other. I base all projections on 16 games (but will assess for risk in my rankings, more on that below), because it's silly not to. We're already "guessing" on how a player will perfom but to guess whether he'll get his ankle rolled up on during week 8's game or if he'll get his bell rung in Week 10 is an exercise in futility.

So if I project him to stay healthy and project him to see the most carries on the Jets (based on all I've read and my beliefs as to which back is better), 1,000 yards and 10 TDs is not unrealistic. Shonn Greene scored 8 rushing TDs last season, afterall, so 2 more based on a variety of factors is not unrealistic. And no, I do not expect Mark Snachez to EVER rush for 6 TDs at the GL again - does that not seem flukely to you? So conversly I'd think there would be more opportunites for some of those to go to a RB instead.

Perhaps 20 receptions is the most unrealistic projection - but that is what Shonn Green basically averaged with this team and he was also NEVER utilized as a 3rd down back and he was never known to be a particulary good reciver either. So even if you want to put Goodson or Powell in the 3rd down back role (which would be a good guess I'll admit) - expecting Ivory to catch 1.25 balls per game in a WCO isn't as unrealistic as it may seem at first glance. How many catches do you think go to RBs in a WCO offense with a QB that doesn't like to throw downfield? Ivory catches 22, Goodson 35-40 and Powell with 15-20 if all three backs stick?

So a projection of 1,000+ yards, 10 TDs and 20 receptions is not a bad projection for an initial attempt at ranking Ivory among RBs. Earlier in this thread I did admit that while I don't like the "injury prone" label I would agree that a back like Ivory, Murray, or even Lynch and Peterson that run seeking contact have more opportunity to become injured than a back like Chris Johnson that runs away from contact or a back like Ray Rice that uses his shiftiness and balance to avoid big hits. So my rankings will be first sorted by projections (assuming 16 games by all players) and in cases where the projections are close I'd favor drafting the "safer" player over the "riskier" player.

And one outlier person doesn't = hype, in my opinion. And truth be told there's always going to be some people that are much higher on a player than anyone else. I'm sure that you are guilty of that as well and I'm sure sometimes you even end up being right about it.

 

[NYJ]

I totally agree that it isn't entirely relevant to the topic. If you read it again, the context is pretty clear that it was more of an aside than a main point. The guy seems quite optimistic about the offense and the defense so I was just pointing out that the combination they've currently got is not worth getting excited about. We're looking at a bad team. And yes, I'm sure you can point out a lot of impact rookies and for every one of them I can point out four non-impact early 1st round rookies.

I seem like a massive homer that is hyping Ivory to be the next Barry Sanders, but I'm really not. I think Ivory can be a solid RB2 - just like Shonn Greene was on a worse team. I see no reason to think that that's unrealistic. I'll let Dr. Octopus handle this discussion because it's patently obvious he has a much better grasp of words than me.

I do think the Jets have more talent than we're given credit for, especially on defense. 4 wins is the floor, 8/9 is the ceiling.

 

[FF Ninja]

Ivory could play 16 games, he could see 70% of the snaps at RB, he could score 10 TDs, he could catch 20 passes (or could he?). Each aspect is less than a 50% chance, but no, I wouldn't say each aspect is unrealistic. Saying all four of those things will happen is absolutely unrealistic. As for the hype, I'm speaking in general. Have a look at the Ivory thread that started before he was traded. So much hype. People like Phenix talking out their ***, hyping his talent based off half a season in a dynamic offense is what I consider hype. These projections for 16 games, 230 carries, 1000+ yards, 10+ TDs, 20+ receptions... those are just bad projections.

Not really, because each of them leads into the other. I base all projections on 16 games (but will assess for risk in my rankings, more on that below), because it's silly not to. We're already "guessing" on how a player will perfom but to guess whether he'll get his ankle rolled up on during week 8's game or if he'll get his bell rung in Week 10 is an exercise in futility. So if I project him to stay healthy and project him to see the most carries on the Jets (based on all I've read and my beliefs as to which back is better), 1,000 yards and 10 TDs is not unrealistic. Shonn Greene scored 8 rushing TDs last season, afterall, so 2 more based on a variety of factors is not unrealistic. And no, I do not expect Mark Snachez to EVER rush for 6 TDs at the GL again - does that not seem flukely to you? So conversly I'd think there would be more opportunites for some of those to go to a RB instead. Perhaps 20 receptions is the most unrealistic projection - but that is what Shonn Green basically averaged with this team and he was also NEVER utilized as a 3rd down back and he was never known to be a particulary good reciver either. So even if you want to put Goodson or Powell in the 3rd down back role (which would be a good guess I'll admit) - expecting Ivory to catch 1.25 balls per game in a WCO isn't as unrealistic as it may seem at first glance. How many catches do you think go to RBs in a WCO offense with a QB that doesn't like to throw downfield? Ivory catches 22, Goodson 35-40 and Powell with 15-20 if all three backs stick? So a projection of 1,000+ yards, 10 TDs and 20 receptions is not a bad projection for an initial attempt at ranking Ivory among RBs. Earlier in this thread I did admit that while I don't like the "injury prone" label I would agree that a back like Ivory, Murray, or even Lynch and Peterson that run seeking contact have more opportunity to become injured than a back like Chris Johnson that runs away from contact or a back like Ray Rice that uses his shiftiness and balance to avoid big hits. So my rankings will be first sorted by projections (assuming 16 games by all players) and in cases where the projections are close I'd favor drafting the "safer" player over the "riskier" player. And one outlier person doesn't = hype, in my opinion. And truth be told there's always going to be some people that are much higher on a player than anyone else. I'm sure that you are guilty of that as well and I'm sure sometimes you even end up being right about it.

I do the same thing - projecting for 16 games. But there are cases where I just can't fathom a player actually doing it. Ivory is one of them. He has 91 college rushes and 278 NFL rushes. 3 seasons of each. And he's going from a prolific offense to a situation where he'll see the defense stacked to stop the run. And he was signed to almost the same contract as another guy who has flashed talent. And there's a decent incumbent player still on the roster. There will be maybe 400 carries to divvy up along with a dozen touchdowns and nobody is expecting him to get a Greene/Powell split now that it is going to be Ivory/Goodson/Powell. Again, a lot of the hype I reference actually started in other threads. Probably a lot of guys with him on their dynasty squads. Everyone wants to find the next Michael Turner, but Turner had the trifecta - talent, durability, and situation. Ivory probably has 1 of those. Granted, nobody is expecting top 5 numbers. I just think he's a bad gamble with an RB2 pick. Of course everyone here suggests grabbing him as your RB3 because he's high risk/high reward, but that's about as useful as saying to grab Nicks as your WR3 due to his injury risks. To me Ivory presents a high risk, medium reward. Given his 5th round price tag, you'd hope for more than moderate RB2 production if he defies probability and plays 16 games. I mean, Ryan Mathews is a similar injury risk with more talent and less competition, but Ivory is going ahead of him in CBS and FFcalc mocks right now. I forgot to say, yes, I agree. Sanchez's 6 rushing TDs sounds like a flukey stat. But I don't see a lot of difference between 2013, 2012, or 2011. I think the QB will still sneak for a few and that Goodson will land a few non-goal line TDs. Powell isn't going to score 0 TDs, either.

 

[Tau837]

Ivory could play 16 games, he could see 70% of the snaps at RB, he could score 10 TDs, he could catch 20 passes (or could he?). Each aspect is less than a 50% chance, but no, I wouldn't say each aspect is unrealistic. Saying all four of those things will happen is absolutely unrealistic. As for the hype, I'm speaking in general. Have a look at the Ivory thread that started before he was traded. So much hype. People like Phenix talking out their ***, hyping his talent based off half a season in a dynamic offense is what I consider hype. These projections for 16 games, 230 carries, 1000+ yards, 10+ TDs, 20+ receptions... those are just bad projections.

Not really, because each of them leads into the other. I base all projections on 16 games (but will assess for risk in my rankings, more on that below), because it's silly not to. We're already "guessing" on how a player will perfom but to guess whether he'll get his ankle rolled up on during week 8's game or if he'll get his bell rung in Week 10 is an exercise in futility. So if I project him to stay healthy and project him to see the most carries on the Jets (based on all I've read and my beliefs as to which back is better), 1,000 yards and 10 TDs is not unrealistic. Shonn Greene scored 8 rushing TDs last season, afterall, so 2 more based on a variety of factors is not unrealistic. And no, I do not expect Mark Snachez to EVER rush for 6 TDs at the GL again - does that not seem flukely to you? So conversly I'd think there would be more opportunites for some of those to go to a RB instead. Perhaps 20 receptions is the most unrealistic projection - but that is what Shonn Green basically averaged with this team and he was also NEVER utilized as a 3rd down back and he was never known to be a particulary good reciver either. So even if you want to put Goodson or Powell in the 3rd down back role (which would be a good guess I'll admit) - expecting Ivory to catch 1.25 balls per game in a WCO isn't as unrealistic as it may seem at first glance. How many catches do you think go to RBs in a WCO offense with a QB that doesn't like to throw downfield? Ivory catches 22, Goodson 35-40 and Powell with 15-20 if all three backs stick? So a projection of 1,000+ yards, 10 TDs and 20 receptions is not a bad projection for an initial attempt at ranking Ivory among RBs. Earlier in this thread I did admit that while I don't like the "injury prone" label I would agree that a back like Ivory, Murray, or even Lynch and Peterson that run seeking contact have more opportunity to become injured than a back like Chris Johnson that runs away from contact or a back like Ray Rice that uses his shiftiness and balance to avoid big hits. So my rankings will be first sorted by projections (assuming 16 games by all players) and in cases where the projections are close I'd favor drafting the "safer" player over the "riskier" player. And one outlier person doesn't = hype, in my opinion. And truth be told there's always going to be some people that are much higher on a player than anyone else. I'm sure that you are guilty of that as well and I'm sure sometimes you even end up being right about it.

I do the same thing - projecting for 16 games. But there are cases where I just can't fathom a player actually doing it. Ivory is one of them. He has 91 college rushes and 278 NFL rushes. 3 seasons of each. And he's going from a prolific offense to a situation where he'll see the defense stacked to stop the run. And he was signed to almost the same contract as another guy who has flashed talent. And there's a decent incumbent player still on the roster. There will be maybe 400 carries to divvy up along with a dozen touchdowns and nobody is expecting him to get a Greene/Powell split now that it is going to be Ivory/Goodson/Powell. Again, a lot of the hype I reference actually started in other threads. Probably a lot of guys with him on their dynasty squads. Everyone wants to find the next Michael Turner, but Turner had the trifecta - talent, durability, and situation. Ivory probably has 1 of those. Granted, nobody is expecting top 5 numbers. I just think he's a bad gamble with an RB2 pick. Of course everyone here suggests grabbing him as your RB3 because he's high risk/high reward, but that's about as useful as saying to grab Nicks as your WR3 due to his injury risks. To me Ivory presents a high risk, medium reward. Given his 5th round price tag, you'd hope for more than moderate RB2 production if he defies probability and plays 16 games. I mean, Ryan Mathews is a similar injury risk with more talent and less competition, but Ivory is going ahead of him in CBS and FFcalc mocks right now. I forgot to say, yes, I agree. Sanchez's 6 rushing TDs sounds like a flukey stat. But I don't see a lot of difference between 2013, 2012, or 2011. I think the QB will still sneak for a few and that Goodson will land a few non-goal line TDs. Powell isn't going to score 0 TDs, either.

I agree on medium reward, but why high risk? I don't see what you have to give up for him, whether startup draft picks or other assets in trades, as representing high risk.

 

[FF Ninja]

High injury risk.

I didn't mean cost. Cost is pretty much a known thanks to ADPs. Once you have a player they have certain risks, such as the risk of being replaced by a better player or the risk of injury or the risk of being in the coach's doghouse. You get the idea.

 

[Tau837]

High injury risk. I didn't mean cost. Cost is pretty much a known thanks to ADPs. Once you have a player they have certain risks, such as the risk of being replaced by a better player or the risk of injury or the risk of being in the coach's doghouse. You get the idea.

Okay, understood. I don't characterize him that way. I'd say he is medium risk, medium reward.

 

[az_prof]

Glass half full? Glass half empty? People allege that Ivory is a high injury risk and cite his low usage in NO as evidence. But the Saints have been committed to a three or four back RBBC for a long time. And it is widely believed that they kept Ivory on PUP to open up a roster spot the year they drafted Ingram. The other side of the coin to the injury prone argument based on so few carries? Low mileage? I have also read reports that he can catch fine; but with Pierre Thomas and Sproles it just wasn't his role. People say his big runs and high ypc were a result of NO offense being pass orientated and opening up lanes. But the other side of that coin is that the Jets will run more and have a better run blocking line.

Here is what I see:

1) Great running talent--he has agility and tackle breaking skills and speed. He passes the eye test--which is the most important one for a RB in my book. His high ypc wasn't just a result of wide open lanes, but rather, ability to break tackle and find holes with good burst.

2) He is only 25 and has low mileage. Do I think he will get 300 carries and play all 16 games? No. But injuries are hard to predict and in my research on him I don't see that he has a history of serious, multiple surgeries. He does run in a way that seems to invite injuries, much like Bradshaw, another guy I like.

3) He is the clear starter on his team--a team that does like to run.

I see 1000 yards, 6 TDs, 20 catches, 200 yards as the floor--assuming he gets injured and misses at least four games.

His ceiling: 1350 yards, 10 TDs, 40 catches, 400 yards.

My prediction?

275 carries, 4.5 ypc=1237 yards, 8 TDs, 25 catches, 250 yards.

 

[Warrior]

What I think is being lost here is that a good running game can, in and of itself, keep the other team from pulling away. If you can control the clock, you can still put the brakes on an explosive offense by limiting time of possession.

I get the "control the bleeding" technique, but ultimately if that even works, how long can you do that for before you have to give in and try to score points? Maybe a half? It's not a winning strategy. I hear people talk about keeping the other offense off the field, but if they are scoring when they're on it and you're not, it doesn't matter if you limit them to 20 minutes ToP. A seven minute drive that nets zero points is going to make your defensive stats look better, but you're still going to lose.

Your hate for him is unreal, while his talent is undeniable.

Anyone who listens to what you have to say on this topic is not gonna get anything from it when they are trying to really learn something about a player. You are unbelievably bias towards a guy who has had a great track record when on the field and has huge upside, and is the unquestioned hoss on his new team.

I really think your hatred toward one player is funny, so bias anyone who is blind can see it. They can read all your hatred here

The Saints evidently found Ivory's talent pretty deniable -- they gave pretty much every RB on the roster more touches than him then dumped him for a 4th round pick.

NFL GMs as a whole find it deniable -- every team had a chance to sign him to an offer sheet, no one did. Every team had a chance to trade for him, he brought in a mere 4th in a RB-poor draft year. Mediocre players like Shonn Greene and Rashard Mendehall signed significantly more lucrative contracts this offseason.

The Jets find it pretty deniable -- they actually gave more money to the other RB they brought in, Mike Goodson.

Finally, Greene himself evidently isn't sold on his own talent -- he took the Jets' bottom of the barrel $2 million / year offer rather than play out the year on his tender and hit UFA next year.

Hatred? Try being realistic...

 

[RBM]

210/966/6

15/105/0

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I'm even more prone to saying something stupid in my June posts before I have really done any prep work, but here's my thinking

1. He is clearly better than Shonn Greene imo.

2. I don't know if he's going to stay healthy, but will forego that for now as I project then adjust if I need to.

3. Combination of not doing it and bad Jets means that he won't get the 276 carries Greene got, but he will be more efficient.

So Greene put up 276/1063/8 and 19/151/0 last year. For Ivory I'll go in the neighborhood of

230/1000/6 and I dunno 20/150/1

His current ADP of RB26, 60 overall seems reasonable, but I have to say that there are a ton of WRs I like a lot better than Ivory at that spot.

 

[plastik]

...with little to no pass catching ability...

Why is it that so many people seem to think Ivory can't catch passes? With the Saints he's had the following during the regular season:

In 2012 Ivory had 2 catches on 3 targets, with 0 dropped passes. (also had 2 catches in the preseason)

In 2011 he only had one target, and didn't catch it, but it wasn't recorded as a drop.

In 2010 he had 1 catch on 1 target (1 catch in the preseason too)

It doesn't seem to me like he's had enough opportunity to show weather or not he can catch passes. Not a surprise with so many viable targets in NO and Sproles eating up receptions at RB. If you check out Ivory's highlights on youtube, you can find a few of his receptions and he looks pretty natural to me as he brings the ball in: HERE for example.

While it's difficult to glean too much from Ivory's college stats, he did catch some passes then too. As a sophomore at Washington State he only had 60 carries, but also notched 13 receptions. His last year of college ball, after transferring to Tiffin, he only played four games but caught 7 passes.

Basically, I don't see any grounds for thinking Ivory has 'no pass catching ability', as its really just an unknown at this point, but I do think he's got some potential to surprise in that department.

 

[karmarooster]

Didn't know where else to post this so I came here. There were several other instances of this sort of thing with other players. In a recent article by FBGs for subscribers ($) on Undervalued RBs:

Mark Wimer: Mike Goodson's legal woes have opened the door to free-agent signee Chris Ivory, and all signal indicate that Ivory has walked through that door and staked his claim to be the starting running back for this team. With the passing game in turmoil and the wide receivers banged up, Ivory figures to get a lot of work week in and week out for the Jets. He should vastly out-produce his current ADP of 98th player off the board (37th running back taken).

Of course he's undervalued if you make up ADP data! Current FantasyFootballCalculator has him as 42nd player overall, 25th RB and going around 4.07

FBGs own ADP data has him 60th overall and RB 26.



Also - Sig calls Tavon Austin a steal at his current 9th round ADP. FFC and FBGs both have him in the 6th round.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Looks like they could be using MFL ADP.

If you go RB>PPR>Redraft>Mock Drafts Ivory is the 38th RB right now.

 

[karmarooster]

Even using MFL ADP, if you filter by real and mock drafts since July 1st - Ivory is 68th player overall. That's still ~3 full rounds difference. The whole point of under/over valued players articles relies on at least vaguely accurate ADP data.

"Julio Jones is a steal in the 5th round as the 13th WR off the board!" means absolutely nothing to no one.

 

[cheatsheetwarroom]

I see similarities betwen the hype around Ivory and similar hype about Marian Barber when he entered his first season as the Cowboys' starting running back. I also think the results will be similar. Their running styles just don't jive with a 16-game season. Chris may have some successes early in the season, but in the end you just can't except a full season out of him. If I decided to take that leap of faith, I'd be sure to have Bilal Powell on my bench.

 

[cheatsheetwarroom]

I see similarities betwen the hype around Ivory and similar hype about Marian Barber when he entered his first season as the Cowboys' starting running back. I also think the results will be similar. Their running styles just don't jive with a 16-game season. Chris may have some successes early in the season, but in the end you just can't except a full season out of him. If I decided to take that leap of faith, I'd be sure to have Bilal Powell on my bench.

 

[Phenix]

I see similarities betwen the hype around Ivory and similar hype about Marian Barber when he entered his first season as the Cowboys' starting running back. I also think the results will be similar. Their running styles just don't jive with a 16-game season. Chris may have some successes early in the season, but in the end you just can't except a full season out of him. If I decided to take that leap of faith, I'd be sure to have Bilal Powell on my bench.

But the hype for David Wilson is OK?

 

[JayJay328]

I see similarities betwen the hype around Ivory and similar hype about Marian Barber when he entered his first season as the Cowboys' starting running back. I also think the results will be similar. Their running styles just don't jive with a 16-game season. Chris may have some successes early in the season, but in the end you just can't except a full season out of him. If I decided to take that leap of faith, I'd be sure to have Bilal Powell on my bench.

But the hype for David Wilson is OK?

What about Lamar Miller?

 

[az_prof]

Can people please remember that Shonn Greene put up back to back 1,000 yard seasons and finished as the 14th best fantasy RB in 2012. The OL is improved with Peterman and Colon at Guard and Austin Howard has another years experience at RT. We have no red zone threat whatsoever so I can see a situation where Ivory gets double digit TD's, but 6-8 is very realistic. Powell and Goodson's presence means he won't get 300 carries but 225+ seems about right. 4.5 ypc would get him 1,000 yards. Solid RB2.

The offensive line is the one aspect that makes me want to take a gamble on Goodson here. But you guys don't just lack a red zone threat, you lack any passing/receiving threat. You don't need to worry about who gets carries in the red zone because you won't be spending much time there. In the last 3 years the Jets are averaging less than 10 rushing TDs as a team, yet people here are projecting 10+ TDs for Ivory. Madness. Add that to the fact that your defense has been getting worse each year, so you'll probably be forced to pass more which means more 3 and outs and more running plays for the other teams. This leads to less offensive plays for the Jets. In 2011, the Jets RBs rushed the ball 397 times and in 2012 they rushed it 427 times. They averaged 3.9 ypc. With the defense getting worse and the passing attack staying the same, I think they're down to 380 RB rushes. How those are split up really depends on how many games Ivory plays. What is the over/under on games played this season? I'm guessing he plays in 10 games.

The new WCO, improved running game and better OL will make this offense better. We had 2.9 Red Zone attempts per game last season which was 20th in the league. Tampa Bay (2.8) and Cleveland (2.4) both had less, but Doug Martin and Trent Richardson both had 11 rushing TD's. 10 TD's is not implausible for Ivory. I also don't think our defense is getting worse. It will be top 10 yet again this year, but that's a different issue.

Where did you find that red zone stat? Tampa had some semblance of a passing threat to help out Martin and I'm sorry, but Ivory <> Richardson. I don't think 10 TD's is impossible for Ivory, just extremely unlikely even if he plays 16 games, which is also extremely unlikely. As for you statement that the Jets defense is not getting worse and finishing top 10 again... I'll just leave this here:Year PPG Rank2012 23.4 20th2011 22.7 20th2010 19.0 6th2009 14.8 1st

I just googled Red Zone attempts and there was that stat. It's an irrelevant stat but I was proving that your point was also. Ivory has had 8 career TD's. They were: 1, 1, 3, 6, 22, 35, 55 and 56 yards. Only 50% of his TD's actually came in a goal line situation. You could also look at Yards per Game where we were 8th, 5th, 3rd and 1st. Still going in the wrong direction but we've got rid of dead weight like Bart Scott and are younger and faster on defense this year. Not to mention two first round picks who, if they live up to their billing, will make a sizeable impact. I firmly believe Rex Ryan is one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL.

>

Can people please remember that Shonn Greene put up back to back 1,000 yard seasons and finished as the 14th best fantasy RB in 2012. The OL is improved with Peterman and Colon at Guard and Austin Howard has another years experience at RT. We have no red zone threat whatsoever so I can see a situation where Ivory gets double digit TD's, but 6-8 is very realistic. Powell and Goodson's presence means he won't get 300 carries but 225+ seems about right. 4.5 ypc would get him 1,000 yards. Solid RB2.

The 14th best fantasy RB is not good. 1000 rushing yards for a player that starts all 16 games is not good. Any RB that starts all 16 games is going to accumulate stats. Look at Greene's average points per game. I bet your sweet tuckus that he is far lower than the 14th best fantasy RB using that metric. I like Ivory's game, but he's an unproven commodity on a bad offense. Draft accordingly.

14th best RB would be great value for Ivory at his current ADP (26th after a quick google). Solid RB2, like I said. We're talking about fantasy football. I don't care how my RB scores points, or how well he is performing on the field if he is doing the job in my fantasy team. Ivory is far better than Greene from what we've seen so I was using Greene as a baseline of what a back in this offense can do. I don't think Ivory will get as many carries but that's where his superior talent allows him to produce similar fantasy numbers.

It's not an irrelevant stat and you disproved nothing. Sure, a couple guys who are either better than Ivory and/or in better situations were able to score 10 TDs with a similar number of red zone trips per game. That doesn't mean anything. Ivory is moving to a team that has little to no passing threat near the goal line on the off chance they actually make it there. It is going to be tough sledding for him. And yes racked up a few long TDs while on the Saints, but I suspect he'll find the defensive fronts are going to be a bit different without Drew Brees around. Plus, I think you'd find a lot of players score half their TDs away from the goal line. That doesn't somehow mean that they don't need goal line carries to score double digit TDs.

As for your rebuttal about defensive yards per game, pointless. No one cares how many yards they gave up. If your crappy offense is playing from behind, Ivory probably won't be in the game. I like your optimism, but let's face it, you are relying on rookies for your defense to get better and you just lost the best CB in the game. It had to happen - he was asking too much and coming off of injury - but you still lost him. Bart Scott was not good, either. But that doesn't mean his replacement is going to be better. I won't be shocked if the Jets go 4-12.

And as someone else pointed out, Greene simply compiled stats by playing all 16 games. He finished the year as RB15, but his points per game were not very impressive. Plus, he was not in a timeshare. If Goodson isn't cut for behavior, which I don't think he will be, then he's going to have a much more prominent role than Powell did last year.

But what makes people so sure that Goodson is going to demand that much more play than Powell did last year? First, he has been in the league four years and has demanded a total of 160 carries total--not exactly a guy who has earned a ton of touches in the past. In those four years, he has played all 16 games only once, so like Ivory, he is not known for staying healthy. Maybe he is better than Powell; maybe he isn't. Powell has 123 carries in two seasons. I don't think either of them have played enough for their yard per carry to be statistically meaningful.

My prediction: When Ivory is healthy, he gets the lion's share of carries because he is far more talented than the rest. If he is hurt, it is probably a RBBC mess.

 

[Phenix]

I see similarities betwen the hype around Ivory and similar hype about Marian Barber when he entered his first season as the Cowboys' starting running back. I also think the results will be similar. Their running styles just don't jive with a 16-game season. Chris may have some successes early in the season, but in the end you just can't except a full season out of him. If I decided to take that leap of faith, I'd be sure to have Bilal Powell on my bench.

But the hype for David Wilson is OK?

What about Lamar Miller?

Agreed. No one knows what any will do for sure, all unproven. All we see is upside, and honestly, all have it.

 

[swirvenirvin]

Hurt again

 

[johnnyboy8102]

I can't bring myself to rely on Ivory as more than depth and that is only if he falls in my draft.

 

[Dragon1952]

Can people please remember that Shonn Greene put up back to back 1,000 yard seasons and finished as the 14th best fantasy RB in 2012. The OL is improved with Peterman and Colon at Guard and Austin Howard has another years experience at RT. We have no red zone threat whatsoever so I can see a situation where Ivory gets double digit TD's, but 6-8 is very realistic. Powell and Goodson's presence means he won't get 300 carries but 225+ seems about right. 4.5 ypc would get him 1,000 yards. Solid RB2.

The offensive line is the one aspect that makes me want to take a gamble on Goodson here. But you guys don't just lack a red zone threat, you lack any passing/receiving threat. You don't need to worry about who gets carries in the red zone because you won't be spending much time there. In the last 3 years the Jets are averaging less than 10 rushing TDs as a team, yet people here are projecting 10+ TDs for Ivory. Madness. Add that to the fact that your defense has been getting worse each year, so you'll probably be forced to pass more which means more 3 and outs and more running plays for the other teams. This leads to less offensive plays for the Jets. In 2011, the Jets RBs rushed the ball 397 times and in 2012 they rushed it 427 times. They averaged 3.9 ypc. With the defense getting worse and the passing attack staying the same, I think they're down to 380 RB rushes. How those are split up really depends on how many games Ivory plays. What is the over/under on games played this season? I'm guessing he plays in 10 games.

The new WCO, improved running game and better OL will make this offense better. We had 2.9 Red Zone attempts per game last season which was 20th in the league. Tampa Bay (2.8) and Cleveland (2.4) both had less, but Doug Martin and Trent Richardson both had 11 rushing TD's. 10 TD's is not implausible for Ivory. I also don't think our defense is getting worse. It will be top 10 yet again this year, but that's a different issue.

Where did you find that red zone stat? Tampa had some semblance of a passing threat to help out Martin and I'm sorry, but Ivory <> Richardson. I don't think 10 TD's is impossible for Ivory, just extremely unlikely even if he plays 16 games, which is also extremely unlikely. As for you statement that the Jets defense is not getting worse and finishing top 10 again... I'll just leave this here:Year PPG Rank2012 23.4 20th2011 22.7 20th2010 19.0 6th2009 14.8 1st

I just googled Red Zone attempts and there was that stat. It's an irrelevant stat but I was proving that your point was also. Ivory has had 8 career TD's. They were: 1, 1, 3, 6, 22, 35, 55 and 56 yards. Only 50% of his TD's actually came in a goal line situation. You could also look at Yards per Game where we were 8th, 5th, 3rd and 1st. Still going in the wrong direction but we've got rid of dead weight like Bart Scott and are younger and faster on defense this year. Not to mention two first round picks who, if they live up to their billing, will make a sizeable impact. I firmly believe Rex Ryan is one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL.

>

Can people please remember that Shonn Greene put up back to back 1,000 yard seasons and finished as the 14th best fantasy RB in 2012. The OL is improved with Peterman and Colon at Guard and Austin Howard has another years experience at RT. We have no red zone threat whatsoever so I can see a situation where Ivory gets double digit TD's, but 6-8 is very realistic. Powell and Goodson's presence means he won't get 300 carries but 225+ seems about right. 4.5 ypc would get him 1,000 yards. Solid RB2.

The 14th best fantasy RB is not good. 1000 rushing yards for a player that starts all 16 games is not good. Any RB that starts all 16 games is going to accumulate stats. Look at Greene's average points per game. I bet your sweet tuckus that he is far lower than the 14th best fantasy RB using that metric. I like Ivory's game, but he's an unproven commodity on a bad offense. Draft accordingly.

14th best RB would be great value for Ivory at his current ADP (26th after a quick google). Solid RB2, like I said. We're talking about fantasy football. I don't care how my RB scores points, or how well he is performing on the field if he is doing the job in my fantasy team. Ivory is far better than Greene from what we've seen so I was using Greene as a baseline of what a back in this offense can do. I don't think Ivory will get as many carries but that's where his superior talent allows him to produce similar fantasy numbers.

It's not an irrelevant stat and you disproved nothing. Sure, a couple guys who are either better than Ivory and/or in better situations were able to score 10 TDs with a similar number of red zone trips per game. That doesn't mean anything. Ivory is moving to a team that has little to no passing threat near the goal line on the off chance they actually make it there. It is going to be tough sledding for him. And yes racked up a few long TDs while on the Saints, but I suspect he'll find the defensive fronts are going to be a bit different without Drew Brees around. Plus, I think you'd find a lot of players score half their TDs away from the goal line. That doesn't somehow mean that they don't need goal line carries to score double digit TDs.

As for your rebuttal about defensive yards per game, pointless. No one cares how many yards they gave up. If your crappy offense is playing from behind, Ivory probably won't be in the game. I like your optimism, but let's face it, you are relying on rookies for your defense to get better and you just lost the best CB in the game. It had to happen - he was asking too much and coming off of injury - but you still lost him. Bart Scott was not good, either. But that doesn't mean his replacement is going to be better. I won't be shocked if the Jets go 4-12.

And as someone else pointed out, Greene simply compiled stats by playing all 16 games. He finished the year as RB15, but his points per game were not very impressive. Plus, he was not in a timeshare. If Goodson isn't cut for behavior, which I don't think he will be, then he's going to have a much more prominent role than Powell did last year.

But what makes people so sure that Goodson is going to demand that much more play than Powell did last year? First, he has been in the league four years and has demanded a total of 160 carries total--not exactly a guy who has earned a ton of touches in the past. In those four years, he has played all 16 games only once, so like Ivory, he is not known for staying healthy. Maybe he is better than Powell; maybe he isn't. Powell has 123 carries in two seasons. I don't think either of them have played enough for their yard per carry to be statistically meaningful.

My prediction: When Ivory is healthy, he gets the lion's share of carries because he is far more talented than the rest. If he is hurt, it is probably a RBBC mess.

Really going out on a limb there.

 

[Art Vandalay]

Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez will start for New York when they visit the Detroit Lions on Friday. Running back Chris Ivory is far from a sure thing.

"I probably won't play this Friday, but definitely next week, Monday or Tuesday," Ivory told the New York Daily News. "(By) Tuesday, I'll definitely be full speed."

Said Ivory: "I'll be back soon full-time. I'm almost there."

Ivory has been sidelined during training camp by a nagging hamstring injury, triggering the Jets to list Bilal Powell as the No. 1 tailback on the first unofficial depth chart. Coach Rex Ryan admitted Tuesday he was "kind of frustrated" with Ivory's status. With Mike Goodson unavailable and Joe McKnight missing time with a head injury, offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg also acknowledged the lack of reps are a concern.

We expect Ivory to assume starting duties once he's healthy. He's a bull-rushing back, but he's appeared in just 12 games over the past two seasons. Pesky knee, foot, groin, shoulder, concussion and hamstring issues have stunted Ivory's career. As it stands, his first action for the Jets likely will come on Aug. 17 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

 

[Art Vandalay]

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet 5m

Rex on Chris Ivory: "He looked excellent. That's one every Jets fan has been waiting to see." If healthy, should be a beast. If.