Player Spotlight: Clinton Portis (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Clinton Portis, RB, Washington Redskins

Player Page Link: Clinton Portis Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[dgreen]

He's one year older (aren't they all?). His line isn't as good as it was a couple years ago, but it's also a little better than it was last year. There are huge questions at RT and it's certainly possibly one of the mainstays breaks down in 2009. His QB and coach could be playing for their jobs. The passing game hopes to have another WR step up and provide a boost to the offense. The defense has added some talent and could lead to more turnovers and offensive possessions.

As much as things change year to year in DC, Portis remains the same. In many ways, Portis is an easy player to predict. He's extremely consistent and fairly reliable. I see the Redskins progressing some in their passing game and I predict a decline in rushing attempts and an increase in passing attempts. As a team, they need to be more aggressive and score more points to win games.

Rushing: 310-1300-11

Receiving: 32-225-1

I'm not sure why I predict a receiving TD every year even though he hasn't scored that way since 2004.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

When you rush for nearly 1500 yards and people think you had a disappointing season that says a lot about a guys talent. That's Clinton Portis for you. He was hurt towards the later half of the season so he could have easily had like 1600-1700 yards if he stayed healthy. This guy's still great.

 

[dgreen]

When you rush for nearly 1500 yards and people think you had a disappointing season that says a lot about a guys talent. That's Clinton Portis for you. He was hurt towards the later half of the season so he could have easily had like 1600-1700 yards if he stayed healthy. This guy's still great.

I wouldn't say he was hurt, at least not any more than any other feature RB or any more than he usually is towards the end of the season. It was the OL that was hurt and old and out of sync. After about halfway through the season, I'm pretty sure the OL didn't practice as a full unit the rest of the season because guys were dinged up.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Wasn't he a game-time decision for one of those Cowboys games? I remember there being all kinds of speculation of whether he'd play or not.

 

[dgreen]

Wasn't he a game-time decision for one of those Cowboys games? I remember there being all kinds of speculation of whether he'd play or not.

Yeah, I think he suffered some type of injury late in the Pittsburgh game. They then had a bye and I think we was questionable for the Dallas game after the bye. So, I guess he might have missed a game if they didn't have the bye. But, he played against Dallas and the rest of the season, even totaling 76 carries in the final three games. Along with the OL wearing down, he also had some tough matchups down the stretch with the Giants, Ravens, and Eagles. Their first half schedule was cake.

 

[Darker Knight]

325/1450/12 40/320/1

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I'm not a big fan of Portis this year for a couple of reasons:

1) I actually made another post about this, but Portis falls into The Curse of 2000 category...The Curse of 2000.

I think it would be one thing if Portis was known for his diligence with regard to his conditioning. but if memory serves, he doesn't take nutrition all that seriously and gives lip service to keeping himself in the best of shape. Maybe my viewpoint is wrong on this, but this is the stage of ones career where diligence to these preparation methods pays off, and I don't think Portis has adhered much to them.

2) If you are going to point to Clinton Portis as one of the best RB's, you may also want to look at his post Thanksgiving stats the last 2 seasons:

10 Games

210 Carries

673 Rushing Yards

7 TD's

3.2 YPC

...and the season before that? He didn't make it to December. He's simply not the same back late in the season and he's always nicked up. It's one thing to play through those injuries and aches and pains earlier in your career. But Portis is 28 now, and it gets more difficult. With Washington, Portis has not had a season (other than the one he was injured in with fewer 325 carries). His December's have shown his wear and tear and I'm thinking this is the year it catches up to Portis with lower production.

3) There seems to be too much smoke with this contentious Zorn/Portis relationship to be absolutely nothing to it. It may not be Cutler/McDaniels, but there was a rift there last season with public comments made by Portis. Couple that with the fact that a slow Redksin start will have the Cowher/Shanahan/Holmgren/Gruden rumor mill working overtime and I could see this season being a huge distraction with more time dedicated to off-field sagas than on-field play. Since Portis has already voiced his displeasure publicly at least on one occasion, I'm sure it could happen again, and another media shytestorm ensues.

So, I'm down on Portis this year and won't be drafting him.

Prediction: 298 Carries 1094 Rushing Yards 7 TD's; 27 Receptions 176 Receiving Yards, 0 TD's.

 

[switz]

I think it would be one thing if Portis was known for his diligence with regard to his conditioning. but if memory serves, he doesn't take nutrition all that seriously and gives lip service to keeping himself in the best of shape. Maybe my viewpoint is wrong on this, but this is the stage of ones career where diligence to these preparation methods pays off, and I don't think Portis has adhered much to them.

I believe early in his career this was true, but not since his second season with the Redskins.

Analysts aside, Portis' NFL career thus far has been an undeniable success. But unlike most players in the NFL, he can't attribute any of it to time spent in the weight room, claiming he didn't complete a single rep during his two years in Denver. "They pretty much asked me to stay out of the weight room," he says. "You know, I was a beast."

Washington head strength coach John Dunn has finally begun to make some headway with Portis' apparent disdain for weightlifting. During the 2005 off-season, Portis committed wholeheartedly to Dunn, hitting the squat rack and the bench with zeal and packing on more than 20 pounds of muscle--up to 225 pounds from 204 last season. The sudden change in attitude was a matter of Portis listening to his body. "I know I'm getting older," he says. "I'm starting to get pain in places that pain has never been before. And with that, I've been trying to get in the weight room ... and pad up."

BTW, my projection is:348 carries, 1,516 yards, 4.35 YPC, 11 rush TDs, 38 rec, 272 yards, 1 rec TD

 

[Sebowski]

I'm not a big fan of Portis this year for a couple of reasons:

1) I actually made another post about this, but Portis falls into The Curse of 2000 category...The Curse of 2000.

I think it would be one thing if Portis was known for his diligence with regard to his conditioning. but if memory serves, he doesn't take nutrition all that seriously and gives lip service to keeping himself in the best of shape. Maybe my viewpoint is wrong on this, but this is the stage of ones career where diligence to these preparation methods pays off, and I don't think Portis has adhered much to them.

2) If you are going to point to Clinton Portis as one of the best RB's, you may also want to look at his post Thanksgiving stats the last 2 seasons:

10 Games

210 Carries

673 Rushing Yards

7 TD's

3.2 YPC

...and the season before that? He didn't make it to December. He's simply not the same back late in the season and he's always nicked up. It's one thing to play through those injuries and aches and pains earlier in your career. But Portis is 28 now, and it gets more difficult. With Washington, Portis has not had a season (other than the one he was injured in with fewer 325 carries). His December's have shown his wear and tear and I'm thinking this is the year it catches up to Portis with lower production.

3) There seems to be too much smoke with this contentious Zorn/Portis relationship to be absolutely nothing to it. It may not be Cutler/McDaniels, but there was a rift there last season with public comments made by Portis. Couple that with the fact that a slow Redksin start will have the Cowher/Shanahan/Holmgren/Gruden rumor mill working overtime and I could see this season being a huge distraction with more time dedicated to off-field sagas than on-field play. Since Portis has already voiced his displeasure publicly at least on one occasion, I'm sure it could happen again, and another media shytestorm ensues.

So, I'm down on Portis this year and won't be drafting him.

Prediction: 298 Carries 1094 Rushing Yards 7 TD's; 27 Receptions 176 Receiving Yards, 0 TD's.

1. I don't believe in curses.2. You are wrong about Portis in December. Last year was his first December ever not log multiple 100 yard games, and that wasn't his fault. It was the entire offense and the line were a mess at the end of the year. I expect both of those to improve.

3. There is no smoke. There is only a hit-driven site trying to drum up interest and traffic. Quoting a bitter old veteran from 6 months ago is not a story.

I expect Portis' carries to go down and his YPC to go up. I am hoping someone steps up behind him (Betts/Dorsey/Aldridge) and gives him more rest. This would help both of my predictions come true. The line will be better with Dockery back and good competition at RT. Campbell and the passing game will also be better with another year in the system and another year behind the young WRs.

310/1425/14/40/320/2

 

[Biabreakable]

I'm afraid to look and what bad things ppl might be saying in here about Portis causing my head to explode

 

[rzrback77]

Clinton Portis is more durable than most people proclaim. He has missed nine games in his five seasons in Washington and eight of those were in 06. He has played 16 games for the past two seasons. He is involved in all phases of the game for the Redskins offense and is their primary weapon. They have not had as much success with the passing game lately, but I think that Campbell has something to prove and is focused on doing that. I think that their passing game improvement will help open up lanes for Portis and I expect him to have his typical solid year. For the Redskins, he has finished as RB11 (in 15 games), RB6, RB36 (in 8 games), RB4, and RB8. Hia receptions have dipped to only two per game, but he almost always gets twenty carries per game, 12 games in 08 and nine in 07 when he had 47 catches on the year. He averages 23.2 touches per game over the last two seasons.

I think that he is in for another solid season, likely top ten and possibly top five compared to his current ADP is RB14. Nice value.

Clinton Portis 330 carries for 1419 yards 4.3 ypc 38 catches for 240 yards 6.3 ypc and 12 TDs

 

[fatness]

Washington's defense will likely improve this year. They didn't give up a lot of yards last year but got few turnovers and near the end of games couldn't get off the field when it mattered (due to lack of turnovers and too much time on the field cause by offensive line problems). This year should see a few more turnovers with Haynesworth sometimes collapsing the opponents' o-line, leading to some short-field opportunities the Redskins didn't get last year.

They did little to upgrade their passing game so whether they want to or not they'll probably rely on the run a lot. And during games Portis wants the ball. He's their best offensive player and he'll get it a lot again. In the unlikely event their passing game improves (and it was pretty decent the first 6 games of last year before the o-line began disintegrating), Portis should see fewer carries, more open area to run to (something he's never had in Washington), more yardage and more TD's.

So much of this depends on their offensive line, which is old and shallow (like Couch Potato, but I digress...... Hi Bruce!) and improved only by the addition of Dockery and by prayer. If they stay healthy the entire offense goes up a notch; if not it'll just be the Portis show.

I don't do stat predictions but he'll be one of the top 5-7 RB's again this year.

side note: I wish they game fantasy points for blocking by RB's. I find myself watching Portis on plays where he doesn't have the ball, just to watch him lay into people.

 

[Aznflyer14]

you might want to check this link out. I'm not sure when this race was held but probably a year ago or 2. Clearly, it would seems that Clinton Portis' 4.35 remains intact despite the fact that he is now at 225lbs than his rookie season at 205lbs. NFL Experts has mentioned that Portis has evolved from a racehorse into a completed workhorse.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

David Elfin, of The Washington Times, reports Washington Redskins RB Clinton Portis says reports of a rift between him and head coach Jim Zorn are wrong. 'How this story came about, I have no idea,' Portis said. 'There's nothing going on. There's no beef between me and Coach Zorn. We're on good terms at this present moment. There's no problem.'Portis added, 'I don't know why people have that in their mind. Me and Coach (Joe) Gibbs had a great relationship. We talked more than me and Coach Zorn do, but lately me and Coach Zorn have been talking, trying to get on the same page. Things been going good. He understand me and I understand him.'

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I'm not a big fan of Portis this year for a couple of reasons:2) If you are going to point to Clinton Portis as one of the best RB's, you may also want to look at his post Thanksgiving stats the last 2 seasons:10 Games210 Carries673 Rushing Yards7 TD's3.2 YPC...and the season before that? He didn't make it to December. He's simply not the same back late in the season and he's always nicked up. It's one thing to play through those injuries and aches and pains earlier in your career. But Portis is 28 now, and it gets more difficult. With Washington, Portis has not had a season (other than the one he was injured in with fewer 325 carries). His December's have shown his wear and tear and I'm thinking this is the year it catches up to Portis with lower production.

2. You are wrong about Portis in December. Last year was his first December ever not log multiple 100 yard games, and that wasn't his fault. It was the entire offense and the line were a mess at the end of the year. I expect both of those to improve.

Wait, so in 2 of those 10 games, he rushed for over 100 yards? So in the other 80% of those games he was even worse than a 3.2 YPC, but 2.7 YPC? Wow...I'm really going to avoid him now!

 

[Tanner9919]

I think it would be one thing if Portis was known for his diligence with regard to his conditioning. but if memory serves, he doesn't take nutrition all that seriously and gives lip service to keeping himself in the best of shape. Maybe my viewpoint is wrong on this, but this is the stage of ones career where diligence to these preparation methods pays off, and I don't think Portis has adhered much to them.

I believe early in his career this was true, but not since his second season with the Redskins.

Analysts aside, Portis' NFL career thus far has been an undeniable success. But unlike most players in the NFL, he can't attribute any of it to time spent in the weight room, claiming he didn't complete a single rep during his two years in Denver. "They pretty much asked me to stay out of the weight room," he says. "You know, I was a beast."

Washington head strength coach John Dunn has finally begun to make some headway with Portis' apparent disdain for weightlifting. During the 2005 off-season, Portis committed wholeheartedly to Dunn, hitting the squat rack and the bench with zeal and packing on more than 20 pounds of muscle--up to 225 pounds from 204 last season. The sudden change in attitude was a matter of Portis listening to his body. "I know I'm getting older," he says. "I'm starting to get pain in places that pain has never been before. And with that, I've been trying to get in the weight room ... and pad up."

BTW, my projection is:348 carries, 1,516 yards, 4.35 YPC, 11 rush TDs, 38 rec, 272 yards, 1 rec TD

I don't buy that 2000 carry myth the other poster speaks of.

C-Mart won the rushing title at age 31, after rushing 3298 times in his career up to that point..

by the end of the 1995 season, Emmitt Smith had carried the ball 2007 times..he went on to rush

for 6 MORE 1000+ yard seasons after that..and almost ran for 1000 in '02 and '04 ( 975,937)..

Portis is the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL, he gets no respect..the guy consistently puts up top 10 numbers yet is viewed as the one guy who's going to fall apart this or any other season.

with games against the Rams, Lions, Bucs, Panthers, Chiefs, Falcons, Broncos, Saints, Raiders, and 6 games against NFC East foes who Portis continually dominates each and every season, I can't see Portis doing anything less than finishing as a top 5 RB this season, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him lead the NFL in rushing.

350/1575/13

35/287/2

you can pencil him in for at least 120 rush yards against each of the following:

Lions, Saints, Raiders, Rams, Bucs, Chiefs, Falcons...that's 840 yards just from these games..

Also, going with the 'Portis is better before Thanksgiving' idea, the Redskins play the Rams, Lions, Bucs, Panthers, Chiefs - not only in consecutive weeks, but within the first 6 weeks of the season,i.e., the time that Portis apparently does all of his damage, and they also play Denver and Atlanta BEFORE Thanksgiving...

after Thanksgiving,they will play the Raiders and the Saints and those juicy NFC East teams that he gobbles up...

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I think it would be one thing if Portis was known for his diligence with regard to his conditioning. but if memory serves, he doesn't take nutrition all that seriously and gives lip service to keeping himself in the best of shape. Maybe my viewpoint is wrong on this, but this is the stage of ones career where diligence to these preparation methods pays off, and I don't think Portis has adhered much to them.

I believe early in his career this was true, but not since his second season with the Redskins.

Analysts aside, Portis' NFL career thus far has been an undeniable success. But unlike most players in the NFL, he can't attribute any of it to time spent in the weight room, claiming he didn't complete a single rep during his two years in Denver. "They pretty much asked me to stay out of the weight room," he says. "You know, I was a beast."

Washington head strength coach John Dunn has finally begun to make some headway with Portis' apparent disdain for weightlifting. During the 2005 off-season, Portis committed wholeheartedly to Dunn, hitting the squat rack and the bench with zeal and packing on more than 20 pounds of muscle--up to 225 pounds from 204 last season. The sudden change in attitude was a matter of Portis listening to his body. "I know I'm getting older," he says. "I'm starting to get pain in places that pain has never been before. And with that, I've been trying to get in the weight room ... and pad up."

BTW, my projection is:348 carries, 1,516 yards, 4.35 YPC, 11 rush TDs, 38 rec, 272 yards, 1 rec TD

I don't buy that 2000 carry myth the other poster speaks of.

C-Mart won the rushing title at age 31, after rushing 3298 times in his career up to that point..

by the end of the 1995 season, Emmitt Smith had carried the ball 2007 times..he went on to rush

for 6 MORE 1000+ yard seasons after that..and almost ran for 1000 in '02 and '04 ( 975,937)..

Portis is the Rodney Dangerfield of the NFL, he gets no respect..the guy consistently puts up top 10 numbers yet is viewed as the one guy who's going to fall apart this or any other season.

with games against the Rams, Lions, Bucs, Panthers, Chiefs, Falcons, Broncos, Saints, Raiders, and 6 games against NFC East foes who Portis continually dominates each and every season, I can't see Portis doing anything less than finishing as a top 5 RB this season, and it wouldn't surprise me to see him lead the NFL in rushing.

350/1575/13

35/287/2

you can pencil him in for at least 120 rush yards against each of the following:

Lions, Saints, Raiders, Rams, Bucs, Chiefs, Falcons...that's 840 yards just from these games..

Also, going with the 'Portis is better before Thanksgiving' idea, the Redskins play the Rams, Lions, Bucs, Panthers, Chiefs - not only in consecutive weeks, but within the first 6 weeks of the season,i.e., the time that Portis apparently does all of his damage, and they also play Denver and Atlanta BEFORE Thanksgiving...

after Thanksgiving,they will play the Raiders and the Saints and those juicy NFC East teams that he gobbles up...

I risk hi-jacking this thread a bit, but to say Emmitt didn't decline after his 2000th carry is to not evaluate his career as a whole. He was certainly productive after his 2000th carry, but he defintely was not the same back that he had been.In the 5 seasons leading up to his 2000th carry, Emmitt averaged 1948 Yards From Scrimmage, a 4.54 YPC and 18 TD's (rounded) a season.

In the 5 seasons after his 2000th carry, Emmitt averaged 1413 Yards From Scrimmage, a 4.06 YPC and 11 TD's a season.

When comparing just the one season on either side of 2000 for Emmitt, he experienced a:

28% decline in Yards From Scrimmage

40% decline in TD's

22% decline in YPC

...2000 was a definite separating point for Emmitt between being THE elite back in the game versus being among the top RB's in the game. You might say big deal...what's the difference. The parallel I'd draw is LaDainian Tomlinson. Do you know many Tomlinson owners who were happy with what they got out of him in 2008 based on what they paid (a likely #1 overall pick)? I don't...yet he's still considered one of the best RB's in the game and being drafted between a 1.06 & 1.10 range.

 

[MAC_32]

As long as Jason Campbell is under center Portis is a solid RB1 in my book.

However, the presence of Colt Brennan scares the #### out of me.

 

[Bankerguy]

Portis is one of the easier backs to project ....imo.

305/1350/11

35/249/3

 

[switz]

He was certainly productive after his 2000th carry, but he defintely was not the same back that he had been.In the 5 seasons leading up to his 2000th carry, Emmitt averaged 1948 Yards From Scrimmage, a 4.54 YPC and 18 TD's (rounded) a season.In the 5 seasons after his 2000th carry, Emmitt averaged 1413 Yards From Scrimmage, a 4.06 YPC and 11 TD's a season.When comparing just the one season on either side of 2000 for Emmitt, he experienced a:28% decline in Yards From Scrimmage40% decline in TD's22% decline in YPC...2000 was a definite separating point for Emmitt between being THE elite back in the game versus being among the top RB's in the game.

You don't think it had anything to do with his dropoff from 22 att/gm over his first 6 seasons to only 16 att/gm over the next 6 seasons, do you? You also realize Emmitt missed more games during his first six seasons than his next 6, right? Nor could it have anything to do with Jimmy Johnson's moving on, and the talent level of the team declining? The team's performance on the whole fell off in 1996... you're 2000 carry myth is total bunk.Barry Sanders reach 2000 carries during week 14 of his 7th season. He averaged 4.9 YPC and 1453 yards per season through 2000 carries. Sanders played three more seasons after his 2000th carry, in which he averaged 5.2 YPC and 1699 yards per season. In fact, Sanders BEST season 2,053 yards and 11 TDs came AFTER his 200th carry.Oh, and his second best season came in the season he reached 1,500 carries, so that's bunk too.FYI - LTs best season came after 1,500 carries, and during his 2,00 carry season. The game after he reached 2,000 carries he had 123 yards at 5.6 YPC, better than his season average that year. The following season, he averaged 4.7 YPC, better than his career average at that point, and put up 1474 yards rushing, only 55 yards less than his career season average, and had a better season than 3 of his prior 6 seasons./hijack/theory

 

[TheDirtyWord]

He was certainly productive after his 2000th carry, but he defintely was not the same back that he had been.In the 5 seasons leading up to his 2000th carry, Emmitt averaged 1948 Yards From Scrimmage, a 4.54 YPC and 18 TD's (rounded) a season.In the 5 seasons after his 2000th carry, Emmitt averaged 1413 Yards From Scrimmage, a 4.06 YPC and 11 TD's a season.When comparing just the one season on either side of 2000 for Emmitt, he experienced a:28% decline in Yards From Scrimmage40% decline in TD's22% decline in YPC...2000 was a definite separating point for Emmitt between being THE elite back in the game versus being among the top RB's in the game.

You don't think it had anything to do with his dropoff from 22 att/gm over his first 6 seasons to only 16 att/gm over the next 6 seasons, do you? You also realize Emmitt missed more games during his first six seasons than his next 6, right? Nor could it have anything to do with Jimmy Johnson's moving on, and the talent level of the team declining? The team's performance on the whole fell off in 1996... you're 2000 carry myth is total bunk.Barry Sanders reach 2000 carries during week 14 of his 7th season. He averaged 4.9 YPC and 1453 yards per season through 2000 carries. Sanders played three more seasons after his 2000th carry, in which he averaged 5.2 YPC and 1699 yards per season. In fact, Sanders BEST season 2,053 yards and 11 TDs came AFTER his 200th carry.Oh, and his second best season came in the season he reached 1,500 carries, so that's bunk too.FYI - LTs best season came after 1,500 carries, and during his 2,00 carry season. The game after he reached 2,000 carries he had 123 yards at 5.6 YPC, better than his season average that year. The following season, he averaged 4.7 YPC, better than his career average at that point, and put up 1474 yards rushing, only 55 yards less than his career season average, and had a better season than 3 of his prior 6 seasons./hijack/theory

We're comparing difference between missing 3 games during his first 6 seasons versus missing 4 games during his next 6 seasons? I don't know how that's relevant...As far as the talent level on the team, Smith played under Switzer for 2 years prior to attaining his 2000th carry and his best year came under Switzer.As for Martin and Sanders, Sanders wasn't in my original analysis as I only went back 10 years (Sanders retired in 1998). But for every Martin, there is a Jamal Lewis and Edgerrin James. For every Barry Sanders, there is a Marshall Faulk or Corey Dillon.If there is a statistical pattern that offers me a 65-70% chance of success, should it not at least be considered? I think Portis will be a good acid test.

 

[switz]

We're comparing difference between missing 3 games during his first 6 seasons versus missing 4 games during his next 6 seasons? I don't know how that's relevant...As far as the talent level on the team, Smith played under Switzer for 2 years prior to attaining his 2000th carry and his best year came under Switzer.

The first two Switzer seasons, he was coaching (if you want to call it that) Jimmy Johnson's team. After his second season he lost Jay Novacek (great TE, that had more impact on Smith that you'd think), the team started to revolt, and things fell apart.

As for Martin and Sanders, Sanders wasn't in my original analysis as I only went back 10 years (Sanders retired in 1998). But for every Martin, there is a Jamal Lewis and Edgerrin James. For every Barry Sanders, there is a Marshall Faulk or Corey Dillon.

Marshall Faulk fought a degenerative knee condition since his third season.... it's amazing he played as long as he did.

If there is a statistical pattern that offers me a 65-70% chance of success, should it not at least be considered? I think Portis will be a good acid test.

Portis may be a good acid test, but I think there are far more examples of players that didn't fall off at 2,000 carries, than those that did.

 

[-jb-]

However, the presence of Colt Brennan scares the #### out of me.

in what way?

 

[Biabreakable]

He was certainly productive after his 2000th carry, but he defintely was not the same back that he had been.In the 5 seasons leading up to his 2000th carry, Emmitt averaged 1948 Yards From Scrimmage, a 4.54 YPC and 18 TD's (rounded) a season.In the 5 seasons after his 2000th carry, Emmitt averaged 1413 Yards From Scrimmage, a 4.06 YPC and 11 TD's a season.When comparing just the one season on either side of 2000 for Emmitt, he experienced a:28% decline in Yards From Scrimmage40% decline in TD's22% decline in YPC...2000 was a definite separating point for Emmitt between being THE elite back in the game versus being among the top RB's in the game.

You don't think it had anything to do with his dropoff from 22 att/gm over his first 6 seasons to only 16 att/gm over the next 6 seasons, do you? You also realize Emmitt missed more games during his first six seasons than his next 6, right? Nor could it have anything to do with Jimmy Johnson's moving on, and the talent level of the team declining? The team's performance on the whole fell off in 1996... you're 2000 carry myth is total bunk.Barry Sanders reach 2000 carries during week 14 of his 7th season. He averaged 4.9 YPC and 1453 yards per season through 2000 carries. Sanders played three more seasons after his 2000th carry, in which he averaged 5.2 YPC and 1699 yards per season. In fact, Sanders BEST season 2,053 yards and 11 TDs came AFTER his 200th carry.Oh, and his second best season came in the season he reached 1,500 carries, so that's bunk too.FYI - LTs best season came after 1,500 carries, and during his 2,00 carry season. The game after he reached 2,000 carries he had 123 yards at 5.6 YPC, better than his season average that year. The following season, he averaged 4.7 YPC, better than his career average at that point, and put up 1474 yards rushing, only 55 yards less than his career season average, and had a better season than 3 of his prior 6 seasons./hijack/theory

We're comparing difference between missing 3 games during his first 6 seasons versus missing 4 games during his next 6 seasons? I don't know how that's relevant...As far as the talent level on the team, Smith played under Switzer for 2 years prior to attaining his 2000th carry and his best year came under Switzer.As for Martin and Sanders, Sanders wasn't in my original analysis as I only went back 10 years (Sanders retired in 1998). But for every Martin, there is a Jamal Lewis and Edgerrin James. For every Barry Sanders, there is a Marshall Faulk or Corey Dillon.If there is a statistical pattern that offers me a 65-70% chance of success, should it not at least be considered? I think Portis will be a good acid test.

Do you notice the difference in these players careers?Edge and Faulk had serious knee injuries and never really returned to the same level of play again. I think Edge did somewhat his last season in Indy and the Cardinals offense did not compliment him as well as the Colts offense did. Faulk came back from his injury but kept having issues with it that would cause him to miss a couple games and parts of some other games.Injuries happen and they can change a players career at any time. On thier 3rd carry in the league or the 2,600 carry. And I see no evidence to suggest that more carries leads to greater risk of injury. Logic might suggest that a player getting 350 touches a year is more at risk than a guy sitting on the bench but the evidence suggests otherwise. That bench warmer might be a back up simply because they are not tough enough to handle a large work load. Some players are tougher than others and that is a bigger deal than I think most of us realize.Here is the test for 2009 season -Thomas Jones 32 years old. Quality RB low mileage. IF the carries are more significant than age then Thomas Jones should have no problem having a reasonably good season. His sharing with Washington and Greene may cause his opportunity to not be the same. And that rotation may have nothing to do with Jones ability in 2009. They will likely do it to season Greene and get him some experience and Washington been crying for more action too.By either measure the evidence will say Jones saw decline from age 31 to 32 (assuming he does not repeat last year) or for passing X ammount of carries threshold. And in the end perhaps neither of these things have anything to do with it. When you look at each situation there are other reasons why players declined and decline isn't a good measurement anyways if your basing that off of previous career years (as is the case withmany of the RB mentioned).Jamal Lewis is 30 and one other power RB I am forgetting right now.LT and Westbrook.And what does all this have to do with Portis? NOTHINGPortis is 28 years old and been nothing but solid his whole career. Historical studies show that age 28 is the last year of the prime window before a more remarkable decline coming at age 29.Btw Faulks injury contributes to this data along with everyone else. That was the age when he had his injury which he never fully returned from. That is just one example. When you go through case by case there are many other reasons for each players decline. Not thier age. And definitly not some arbitrary touch threshold.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

...

And in the end perhaps neither of these things have anything to do with it. When you look at each situation there are other reasons why players declined and decline isn't a good measurement anyways if your basing that off of previous career years.

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Btw Faulks injury contributes to this data along with everyone else. That was the age when he had his injury which he never fully returned from. That is just one example. When you go through case by case there are many other reasons for each players decline. Not thier age. And definitly not some arbitrary touch threshold.

Exceptional points that too often get glosses over.I think historical statistical trends are fine for context, but only marginally useful when applied to a particular player.

 

[gpthatsme]

Anything changed here after the absolutely terrible showing from the Redskins in their preseason game? Do you guys think Portis's "projections" go up or down after that game? They sucked on offense without him in the game. Does that mean they lean on him even more than ever? If that's the case, do defenses even more so stack the box to stop him and see if Campbell can throw? Do stacked boxes lead to injury? I'm interested in the Shark's thoughts...

 

[Biabreakable]

Portis does not play in the preseason. So what they did against the Ravens means nothing.

Bringing safeties up for run support has no effect on injuries that I think could be measured. It makes running plays more difficult but also can lead to big plays if blocked properly.

Blitzing hurts play action passing. It is QB and (usualy) the centers job to identify the blitz and make adjustments. Usualy with a 3 step drop and throw to the area the blitzer has left open. If the QB cannot do this then the team needs a new QB.

 

[Whiplash Inc.]

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/redskinsi...redskinsinsider

 

[Eradicator]

Portis was my 1st round pick last yr and won't be on my team this yr because-

- He almost literally NEVER broke any long runs. This can't all be his o-lines' fault (the 'he still has his speed' argument reminds me of Edge last yr).

- I couldn't even start him the last quarter of the season. I'm not spending a pick from the first two rounds on a guy I had such little confidence in 8 months ago circumstances be damned.

I admire him and he's a warrior but he won't be on my roster. Maybe having had a guy on your squad last yr distorts your perception for either the better or worse.

 

[Blackjacks]

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/redskinsi...redskinsinsider

Betts is suppose to have a bigger role every year.

Keep the info coming so I can pick up Clinton in the second round and laugh at others while he produces like the top 1O rb he is.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

"Even if it's 15 plays a game, in the fourth quarter, Clinton Portis should be ready to go because he's rested."

- So Betts is going to play on 3rd down, and he might get 15 snaps a game. Got it.

 

[Blackjacks]

Portis was my 1st round pick last yr and won't be on my team this yr because-- He almost literally NEVER broke any long runs. This can't all be his o-lines' fault (the 'he still has his speed' argument reminds me of Edge last yr).- I couldn't even start him the last quarter of the season. I'm not spending a pick from the first two rounds on a guy I had such little confidence in 8 months ago circumstances be damned.I admire him and he's a warrior but he won't be on my roster. Maybe having had a guy on your squad last yr distorts your perception for either the better or worse.

So you picked him top last year.....he finished in the top 1O last year and you want nothing to do with him this year......okay .I guess you'd rather take a flyer on a rb who hasn't been in the top ten in the past and has a huge ceiling and a huge floor instead.Let's face it, CP isn't what he use to be but he's getting the ball all the time and barring an injury he's going to produce at a high level.He might not be the sexy pick but if you can get a reliable guy late in the first round than it is up to you to get those good value picks later on in the draft..Portis is the kind of rock you want to build your team around.

 

[Blackjacks]

http://voices.washingtonpost.com/redskinsi...redskinsinsider

Also 4 of his first 7 games are cupcakesSTL

Detroit

TB

KC

2 divisional games where CP always does pretty good

and 1 tough game at Carolina

The point I'm making is if you don't like him he will excellent trade value up until his bye week at week 8.

I would guess he will have atleast 7OO yards and 6 td's after 7 weeks. That should be good for a top 5 rb at the time.

If you wanted to trade him after that I couldn't argue due to the past showing his second halves not being as impressive as his first plus a harder schedule and especially his playoff schedule being crappy with teh Cowboys and Giants