Player Spotlight: Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers

Player Page Link: Colin Kaepernick Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections
  

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
  

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Eminence]

Losing Michael Crabtree doesn't do San Francisco any favors but Kaepernick is still a legitimate threat to run the ball and if the 49ers can field a respectable Running Back the passing game should be fine.

Teams will have to sell out to stop the 49ers Running Game and when that happens, that frees things up immensely for the other receivers. Kaepernick has been working out with AJ Jenkins this off-season, so that's a decent option to replace say 60% of Crabtree's production last year (shooting low).

Let's dish out 20% more to Vernon Davis and 20% more to all other receivers, this might make Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis decent fantasy options. Crafty veterans that if on the field will make plays for Kaepernick.

 

[pghrob]

Bump

 

[dgreen]

Last year's 10 starts (including playoffs) project to 270-435-3850-22-8 passing and 107-803-8 rushing over 16 games. How does everyone see that changing in 2013?

I don't think it's a big stretch to say he won't hit 8.8 YPA and 7.5 YPR this year. Those types of numbers are just too ridiculous to predict, IMO. Knocking those down to 7.7 YPA and 6.0 YPR seem more reasonable, while still allowing for his awesomeness. But, how many passing and rushing attempts? I could see a slight bump in passing, but I'm not sure I'd go higher than 475 attempts and probably a decrease in rushing attempts to around 90.

Based on this 5-minute analysis, I'd start projections somewhere around:

279-465-3580-23-10

90-550-6

Last year, that would have put him around QB7 with Matt Ryan. Seems a few spots too high to me, but maybe it's about right? I'm trying not to be overly optimistic about this guy, but it's hard not to. Rushing TDs could launch him to top 5 or they could drop him out of the top 10.

 

[Sabertooth]

I like him but I think defenses figure him out a bit this year and we see a regression from the tear he went on last season. I think Atlanta and Baltimore sure as heck handled him a lot better than Green Bay did. We'll see a mix as defenses get more tape with some up and down games. Right now his receiving corps is not great. Vernon Davis, an aging Anquan Boldin and not much else.

The rushing stats will buoy his fantasy production. I am thinking Cam Newton lite here as I don't think he's as good as Cam. I think Dgreen's projections are pretty solid, I'll tweak those a bit to reflect a few more picks and rushes.

3700/24/13

80/560/5

 

[FF Ninja]

Not going to go into a lot of detail on this one, but he's likely to finish the season in the bottom 3 in pass attempts per game, but he's being drafted as QB7. That is insane to me. I get that he runs quite a bit, but that opens him up for injury. It's nice to have a QB that can run, but that doesn't rely on running for FF points. Given the lack of passing attempts, reliance on the run, loss of his #1 weapon, and ridiculous ADP, he is invisible to me on the draft board. I'm not intentionally not drafting him, but I know there is a 0% chance he falls to the point where I think he'd be a good draft choice.

 

[meyerj31]

Not going to go into a lot of detail on this one, but he's likely to finish the season in the bottom 3 in pass attempts per game, but he's being drafted as QB7. That is insane to me. I get that he runs quite a bit, but that opens him up for injury. It's nice to have a QB that can run, but that doesn't rely on running for FF points. Given the lack of passing attempts, reliance on the run, loss of his #1 weapon, and ridiculous ADP, he is invisible to me on the draft board. I'm not intentionally not drafting him, but I know there is a 0% chance he falls to the point where I think he'd be a good draft choice.

This x2. Nicely worded.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I like him but I think defenses figure him out a bit this year and we see a regression from the tear he went on last season. I think Atlanta and Baltimore sure as heck handled him a lot better than Green Bay did. We'll see a mix as defenses get more tape with some up and down games. Right now his receiving corps is not great. Vernon Davis, an aging Anquan Boldin and not much else.

The rushing stats will buoy his fantasy production. I am thinking Cam Newton lite here as I don't think he's as good as Cam. I think Dgreen's projections are pretty solid, I'll tweak those a bit to reflect a few more picks and rushes.

3700/24/13

80/560/5

Makes sense for the most part.

Regarding your Cam comment.....can you clarify? While I might say that Cam is more athletic and a bigger threat to run, I personally think Kaepernick is a far superior throwing QB. Cam can't read defenses for ####, he doesn't go through his progressions well, he frankly doesn't inspire confidence via his ability to operate a pro offense. Kaepernick does. Just my two cents.

 

[zamboni]

Not going to go into a lot of detail on this one, but he's likely to finish the season in the bottom 3 in pass attempts per game, but he's being drafted as QB7. That is insane to me. I get that he runs quite a bit, but that opens him up for injury. It's nice to have a QB that can run, but that doesn't rely on running for FF points. Given the lack of passing attempts, reliance on the run, loss of his #1 weapon, and ridiculous ADP, he is invisible to me on the draft board. I'm not intentionally not drafting him, but I know there is a 0% chance he falls to the point where I think he'd be a good draft choice.

This x2. Nicely worded.

Thirded. Love what Kaep brings to the table as a dual threat, but for fantasy purposes, I am hesitant on QBs that don't throw the ball a ton. That is where the points consistently come from, and the rushing numbers could be much more variable. Even Cam didn't run the ball as much last year in many games, and obviously the TDs were way down from his unprecedented rookie year.

 

[fightingillini]

I for the most part agree with the field here.

Losing Crabtree takes a big hit to the SF offense. I expect SF to run the ball a lot more, so Kaepernick will likely have less passing yards, but he could have a chance at 800+ rushing yards. So he's still a viable option, but his upside may not be as high as before. His ADP of QB7 is probably a little high for my taste. Running QBs with low passing numbers sometimes tend to be very inconsistent. I can't have my QB with a 150 yd - 0TD - 2 Int - 40 rushing yd game too often.

3300 passing yds, 20 TD, 13 Int

625 rushing yds, 6 TD

 

[DeaLerZ]

disagree with most of what has been said about Kaepernick... too much pessimism... to win in fantasy football you have to be able to see talent, and take advantage of it before anyone else does... that is how you build championship rosters

I realize this guy's stock was hurt a little bit by Crabtree's injury... but to say that Crabtree was considered a great WR until Kaepernick started playing last year is sheer nonsense.. Kaepernick made Crabtree a better player... in my mind Boldin/Davis will get rewarded for Crabtree's injury.. and I believe Jenkins will step up to the plate as a strong #3 option

Quote

Last year's 10 starts (including playoffs) project to 270-435-3850-22-8 passing and 107-803-8 rushing over 16 games. How does everyone see that changing in 2013?



I don't think it's a big stretch to say he won't hit 8.8 YPA and 7.5 YPR this year. Those types of numbers are just too ridiculous to predict, IMO. Knocking those down to 7.7 YPA and 6.0 YPR seem more reasonable, while still allowing for his awesomeness. But, how many passing and rushing attempts? I could see a slight bump in passing, but I'm not sure I'd go higher than 475 attempts and probably a decrease in rushing attempts to around 90.



Based on this 5-minute analysis, I'd start projections somewhere around:



279-465-3580-23-10



90-550-6



Last year, that would have put him around QB7 with Matt Ryan. Seems a few spots too high to me, but maybe it's about right? I'm trying not to be overly optimistic about this guy, but it's hard not to. Rushing TDs could launch him to top 5 or they could drop him out of the top 10.

this is about the best estimate of Kaepernick this year as a first full year of starting.. the thing you have to remember is that Jim Harbaugh is an absolute genious at bringing the best out of his QB's, he has proven that with lame-o Alex Smith, and now a potential star talent in Kaepernick.... his game is very similar to Cam Newton's... and Cam Newton has been a top 5 QB in fantasy two years in a row... why on earth couldn't Kaepernick do so as well???

People need to stop underestimating how much a Running QB's value increases just from rushing yards alone... not to mention the consistency you get out of a QB like that... during the games where passing isn't working they use their feet more, its not rocket science... sure Cam Newton had his fair share of duds last year in the beginning of the year, and we can expect some of those types of games from Kaepernick, but this guy also has the potential to win a week for you by himself...that is why you draft him...

My predictions:

3,850 Pass Yds

22 Pass TD's

10 Int's

750 Rush Yds

9 Rush TD's

In my league last year... that was 5th best QB... and I don't think I am exaggerating those numbers.. the 49ers have a great defense, a great run game, with a brilliant minded coach which will lead to plenty of scoring opportunities...Kaepernick is a dynamic athlete and with Harbaugh by his side I think he will be a top 10 QB without a doubt

 

[dgreen]

DeaLrZ, your prediction basically boils down to Kaepernick duplicating his per game averages from last year. It's a function of number of plays and effectiveness of each play. In order for Kaepernick to duplicate his stats from last year, you have to either predict he will sustain the same per play averages with a similar number of plays per game or predict one of them will go up and one will go down.

RG3 led the league last year in both YPA (8.1) and YPR (6.8). (Kaepernick didn't have enough attempts to qualify.) I believe that was the first time a player led the league in both categories. If you predict Kaepernick maintaining a similar YPA (8.8) and YPR (7.5) from last year, he will totally blow that accomplishment out of the water. While it's possible, I find it hard to predict such an accomplishment. So, if we can agree that his yards per play will decrease (and maybe you don't agree, or maybe you think they won't decrease very much), then we are left with having to predict a large increase in number of pass attempts or rushes per game in order to reach your projections. I think that's more likely than him repeating his per play averages, but I just don't think SF is going to open things up enough - or move to a more fast-paced offense, leading to more plays overall - to justify a large increase in passing and rushing attempts.

 

[Concept Coop]

DeaLrZ, your prediction basically boils down to Kaepernick duplicating his per game averages from last year. It's a function of number of plays and effectiveness of each play. In order for Kaepernick to duplicate his stats from last year, you have to either predict he will sustain the same per play averages with a similar number of plays per game or predict one of them will go up and one will go down.

RG3 led the league last year in both YPA (8.1) and YPR (6.8). (Kaepernick didn't have enough attempts to qualify.) I believe that was the first time a player led the league in both categories. If you predict Kaepernick maintaining a similar YPA (8.8) and YPR (7.5) from last year, he will totally blow that accomplishment out of the water. While it's possible, I find it hard to predict such an accomplishment. So, if we can agree that his yards per play will decrease (and maybe you don't agree, or maybe you think they won't decrease very much), then we are left with having to predict a large increase in number of pass attempts or rushes per game in order to reach your projections. I think that's more likely than him repeating his per play averages, but I just don't think SF is going to open things up enough - or move to a more fast-paced offense, leading to more plays overall - to justify a large increase in passing and rushing attempts.

I don't think "it's too good to be true" is a valid reason to adjust our projections. The offense SF ran while Kaepernick was under center was unique, and was directly tied to his YPA. It's not a coincidence that Newton, RG3, and Kaepernick put up high YPA and YPC numbers over the last 2 years – Newton repeated, too. If thier usage and skillsets are new, we should expect the results to be new, too.

 

[dgreen]

DeaLrZ, your prediction basically boils down to Kaepernick duplicating his per game averages from last year. It's a function of number of plays and effectiveness of each play. In order for Kaepernick to duplicate his stats from last year, you have to either predict he will sustain the same per play averages with a similar number of plays per game or predict one of them will go up and one will go down.

RG3 led the league last year in both YPA (8.1) and YPR (6.8). (Kaepernick didn't have enough attempts to qualify.) I believe that was the first time a player led the league in both categories. If you predict Kaepernick maintaining a similar YPA (8.8) and YPR (7.5) from last year, he will totally blow that accomplishment out of the water. While it's possible, I find it hard to predict such an accomplishment. So, if we can agree that his yards per play will decrease (and maybe you don't agree, or maybe you think they won't decrease very much), then we are left with having to predict a large increase in number of pass attempts or rushes per game in order to reach your projections. I think that's more likely than him repeating his per play averages, but I just don't think SF is going to open things up enough - or move to a more fast-paced offense, leading to more plays overall - to justify a large increase in passing and rushing attempts.

I don't think "it's too good to be true" is a valid reason to adjust our projections. The offense SF ran while Kaepernick was under center was unique, and was directly tied to his YPA. It's not a coincidence that Newton, RG3, and Kaepernick put up high YPA and YPC numbers over the last 2 years – Newton repeated, too. If thier usage and skillsets are new, we should expect the results to be new, too.

I'm all for "new". I just question predicting a whole new level of new.

Obviously it seems reasonable to say "I think Kaepernick 2013 will be similar to Kaepernick 2012". That's usually a decent prediction for most players. But, when a certain stat for a player is so out of the ordinary in year n, I think it's more reasonable to predict it will decline in year n+1.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm all for "new". I just question predicting a whole new level of new.

Obviously it seems reasonable to say "I think Kaepernick 2013 will be similar to Kaepernick 2012". That's usually a decent prediction for most players. But, when a certain stat for a player is so out of the ordinary in year n, I think it's more reasonable to predict it will decline in year n+1.

I think if we can find a valid reason to lower his projections - we should. I won't be using past QB production models to do so, however.

Any reasonable projection, using past QB production, is going to be "out of the ordinary" for these rushing QBs. Newton broke the rushing TD record, Kaepernick broke the record for yards in a game, and RG3 broke the record for yards in a season (rookie) - all within 2 seasons. It is pointless to point to past QB production when projecting their rushing totals - I think we can agree, right? Now, look at the YPA, YPC numbers of these 3 guys and I think we can find a pattern there, too. Maybe Kaepernick won't lead the league in YPA, again. But I think he's the best bet to do so.

 

[DeaLerZ]

the point of what I was trying to say is that a guy with his talent is very rare, and we have seen what Harbaugh was able to do with him in only 10 games. We saw how well he performed in the playoffs after 7 games under his belt. In my opinion the sky is the limit with this guy, and he has the potential to be a stud QB for a long time.

Projections are subjective anyways, what one guy thinks is outrageous, another guy thinks is too low. I personally believe the projections I gave Kaepernick... yes based on last years stats to some degree are a good average to guess how his production over a full season will pan out. I honestly think he will do better than that personally. However, in terms of fantasy those are the numbers I will personally use when assessing his draft value for myself.

He passes the eye test for me and I am never doubting myself in that regard again, (after dropping Alford Morris before week 1 last year after he clearly passed the eye test for me), and with Harbaugh by his side I think they will do great things together.

 

[drummer]

I wouldn't be surprised of Kaep passed over 4000 yards this season, especially if Gore breaks down. Harbaugh trusted Kaep more in running the passing offense than Alex Smith because of his arm and overall read and recognition. The playbook opened up with Kaep more, really, in the passing offense than they using his legs in the run game. I like DeaLerZ assessment here, yet I think he goes 27 TDs to 13 INTs for over 4000 yards in passing, 300 yards with 5 TDs in rushing. I maybe weighing a little heavy here, but despite the general thought of he being just another running QB, I look at he being a Steve Young in 1992/93 this next season.

I don't play FF, but that's what I expect for Kaep.

 

[FF Ninja]

Drummer, how many attempts per game are you expecting? Last year, they averaged 27.3. A 10% bump would be 30 attempts per game. At that rate he would have to have a YPA above 8.3. Aaron Rodgers has eclipsed 8.3 ypa one time in his career. I think it is time for the Kaepernick fans to put down the kool aid.

 

[Shutout]

I'm with the group that says I probably won't have him, for all the reasons initially outlined by Ninja. I see it the same way.

I owned him in one dynasty and sold him becuase the offering price was so high. It would not surprise me if he tears it up but I just don't expect it given the team makeup.

Sometimes when the new shiny comes along and the hype machine starts spewing steam, I try to put things into perspective in ways that half correlate completely and half do not at all. Then I find the middle to try to reel me back into reality. For Kaepernick, I started thinking about Daunte Culpepper. For those playing back when, there were similarities and stark differences. Culpepper sat for a year and then took the league by storm. His legs were the fantasy difference-maker and so you can see the similarities. The differences are he was throwing to Randy Moss in his prime, Cris Carter, a HOF'er, and they threw A LOT.

Anyway, as you may know, a devestating knee injury and some shifts in the organization later, and it all unraveled rather quickly. I use that as my basis here to remind me that the expectations should likely be tempered. Had Culpepper maintained that start he had, he would have been probably the most dominant FF player of the era, right along with Manning and Vick (had he maintained his flashes he showed). But it only takes losing that one component to bring it to a halt when you are a QB that is not a pure, classical pocket passer and that is qhat Kaepernick is. The guys like Manning and Rodgers and Brees and Brady are the iconic elite for so long because they are true students of the passing game, first and foremost. Kaepernick is not. He's much more in the "superbly gifted athlete, first and foremost" category and those guys; the Vicks, Culpeppers, Vince Youngs, etc, tend to be a little bit more at risk to fall from the top.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I'm with the group that says I probably won't have him, for all the reasons initially outlined by Ninja. I see it the same way.

I owned him in one dynasty and sold him becuase the offering price was so high. It would not surprise me if he tears it up but I just don't expect it given the team makeup.

Sometimes when the new shiny comes along and the hype machine starts spewing steam, I try to put things into perspective in ways that half correlate completely and half do not at all. Then I find the middle to try to reel me back into reality. For Kaepernick, I started thinking about Daunte Culpepper. For those playing back when, there were similarities and stark differences. Culpepper sat for a year and then took the league by storm. His legs were the fantasy difference-maker and so you can see the similarities. The differences are he was throwing to Randy Moss in his prime, Cris Carter, a HOF'er, and they threw A LOT.

Anyway, as you may know, a devestating knee injury and some shifts in the organization later, and it all unraveled rather quickly. I use that as my basis here to remind me that the expectations should likely be tempered. Had Culpepper maintained that start he had, he would have been probably the most dominant FF player of the era, right along with Manning and Vick (had he maintained his flashes he showed). But it only takes losing that one component to bring it to a halt when you are a QB that is not a pure, classical pocket passer and that is qhat Kaepernick is. The guys like Manning and Rodgers and Brees and Brady are the iconic elite for so long because they are true students of the passing game, first and foremost. Kaepernick is not. He's much more in the "superbly gifted athlete, first and foremost" category and those guys; the Vicks, Culpeppers, Vince Youngs, etc, tend to be a little bit more at risk to fall from the top.

Are you similarly worried about RGIII and Cam? (note: I don't include Russell Wilson in this category, because I think he's a better pure passing QB than the others)

 

[Concept Coop]

Drummer, how many attempts per game are you expecting? Last year, they averaged 27.3. A 10% bump would be 30 attempts per game. At that rate he would have to have a YPA above 8.3. Aaron Rodgers has eclipsed 8.3 ypa one time in his career. I think it is time for the Kaepernick fans to put down the kool aid.

They play in a completely different offense. Apples to oranges. YPA is not a clear indicator of production when the roles are not the same. Rodgers is asked to do a lot more, a lot more often.

 

[Keith Lewis]

Pretty clear to me that people didn't actually watch Kaep, odd since a third of his games were prime time/post season.

It is also clear to me that Cecil Lamney is clueless again and Matt Waldman was smoking something during last weeks audible.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Pretty clear to me that people didn't actually watch Kaep, odd since a third of his games were prime time/post season.It is also clear to me that Cecil Lamney is clueless again and Matt Waldman was smoking something during last weeks audible.

Can you summarize their comments?

 

[Keith Lewis]

Pretty clear to me that people didn't actually watch Kaep, odd since a third of his games were prime time/post season.It is also clear to me that Cecil Lamney is clueless again and Matt Waldman was smoking something during last weeks audible.

Can you summarize their comments?

To summarize, Cecil was stuck on two passes Kaep threw last year and labeled Kaep "robotic" and not going to ever be that good, based on two passes. Waldman said Kaeps ceiling is the "bad" Mike Vick and also stated that Russel Wilson is a virtual lock to be Brees in his prime. That's what I heard, I'm sure they will backpedal.

 

[Shutout]

I'm with the group that says I probably won't have him, for all the reasons initially outlined by Ninja. I see it the same way.

I owned him in one dynasty and sold him becuase the offering price was so high. It would not surprise me if he tears it up but I just don't expect it given the team makeup.

Sometimes when the new shiny comes along and the hype machine starts spewing steam, I try to put things into perspective in ways that half correlate completely and half do not at all. Then I find the middle to try to reel me back into reality. For Kaepernick, I started thinking about Daunte Culpepper. For those playing back when, there were similarities and stark differences. Culpepper sat for a year and then took the league by storm. His legs were the fantasy difference-maker and so you can see the similarities. The differences are he was throwing to Randy Moss in his prime, Cris Carter, a HOF'er, and they threw A LOT.

Anyway, as you may know, a devestating knee injury and some shifts in the organization later, and it all unraveled rather quickly. I use that as my basis here to remind me that the expectations should likely be tempered. Had Culpepper maintained that start he had, he would have been probably the most dominant FF player of the era, right along with Manning and Vick (had he maintained his flashes he showed). But it only takes losing that one component to bring it to a halt when you are a QB that is not a pure, classical pocket passer and that is qhat Kaepernick is. The guys like Manning and Rodgers and Brees and Brady are the iconic elite for so long because they are true students of the passing game, first and foremost. Kaepernick is not. He's much more in the "superbly gifted athlete, first and foremost" category and those guys; the Vicks, Culpeppers, Vince Youngs, etc, tend to be a little bit more at risk to fall from the top.

Are you similarly worried about RGIII and Cam? (note: I don't include Russell Wilson in this category, because I think he's a better pure passing QB than the others)

no.

 

[dgreen]

Pretty clear to me that people didn't actually watch Kaep, odd since a third of his games were prime time/post season.It is also clear to me that Cecil Lamney is clueless again and Matt Waldman was smoking something during last weeks audible.

Can you summarize their comments?

To summarize, Cecil was stuck on two passes Kaep threw last year and labeled Kaep "robotic" and not going to ever be that good, based on two passes. Waldman said Kaeps ceiling is the "bad" Mike Vick and also stated that Russel Wilson is a virtual lock to be Brees in his prime.That's what I heard, I'm sure they will backpedal.

They also discussed his tendency to throw to his first read. Also, on the rare occasion when he did target his second read, it was a simple high-low situation on the same side of the field. He almost never ended up throwing to the other side of the field after moving off of his first read.

 

[jurb26]

Pretty clear to me that people didn't actually watch Kaep, odd since a third of his games were prime time/post season.It is also clear to me that Cecil Lamney is clueless again and Matt Waldman was smoking something during last weeks audible.

Can you summarize their comments?

To summarize, Cecil was stuck on two passes Kaep threw last year and labeled Kaep "robotic" and not going to ever be that good, based on two passes. Waldman said Kaeps ceiling is the "bad" Mike Vick and also stated that Russel Wilson is a virtual lock to be Brees in his prime.That's what I heard, I'm sure they will backpedal.

They also discussed his tendency to throw to his first read. Also, on the rare occasion when he did target his second read, it was a simple high-low situation on the same side of the field. He almost never ended up throwing to the other side of the field after moving off of his first read.

Funny, I said that plenty of times last year. Glad to see I'm not the only one who noticed it.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Pretty clear to me that people didn't actually watch Kaep, odd since a third of his games were prime time/post season.It is also clear to me that Cecil Lamney is clueless again and Matt Waldman was smoking something during last weeks audible.

Can you summarize their comments?

To summarize, Cecil was stuck on two passes Kaep threw last year and labeled Kaep "robotic" and not going to ever be that good, based on two passes. Waldman said Kaeps ceiling is the "bad" Mike Vick and also stated that Russel Wilson is a virtual lock to be Brees in his prime.That's what I heard, I'm sure they will backpedal.

They also discussed his tendency to throw to his first read. Also, on the rare occasion when he did target his second read, it was a simple high-low situation on the same side of the field. He almost never ended up throwing to the other side of the field after moving off of his first read.

we are talking about a guy who has only played what 10 nfl games? and he dominated.

Sky is the limit from a FFL perspective, and he made Crabtree, not the other way around.

I expect Boldin to be the guy, and maybe Harbaugh finally unleashes Vern.

Give him full time starters reps all camp and season long and lets see how he does.

 

[drummer]

Drummer, how many attempts per game are you expecting? Last year, they averaged 27.3. A 10% bump would be 30 attempts per game. At that rate he would have to have a YPA above 8.3. Aaron Rodgers has eclipsed 8.3 ypa one time in his career. I think it is time for the Kaepernick fans to put down the kool aid.

They play in a completely different offense. Apples to oranges. YPA is not a clear indicator of production when the roles are not the same. Rodgers is asked to do a lot more, a lot more often.

I dunno if FF Ninja was using the whole season with Alex Smith starting the first half of it for YPA, yet at the same time the 49ers also switched the offense from Smith to Kaep due to Kaep's abilities. I'm just speculating on what OC Greg Roman and Harbaugh will do with the off season with Kaep as full time starter. It was pretty clear that they trusted him with the passing offense to open it up more than they did with Smith. I'm not putting Kaep in the Elite category in the least (where Rodgers is) but I think Harbaugh wants more octane in the passing department, and will try to exploit it more this coming season.

Again I am not speaking in FF terms here, just as a fan of the team.

 

[Wise Old Owl]

I like him but I think defenses figure him out a bit this year and we see a regression from the tear he went on last season. I think Atlanta and Baltimore sure as heck handled him a lot better than Green Bay did. We'll see a mix as defenses get more tape with some up and down games. Right now his receiving corps is not great. Vernon Davis, an aging Anquan Boldin and not much else.

The rushing stats will buoy his fantasy production. I am thinking Cam Newton lite here as I don't think he's as good as Cam. I think Dgreen's projections are pretty solid, I'll tweak those a bit to reflect a few more picks and rushes.

3700/24/13

80/560/5

Makes sense for the most part.

Regarding your Cam comment.....can you clarify? While I might say that Cam is more athletic and a bigger threat to run, I personally think Kaepernick is a far superior throwing QB. Cam can't read defenses for ####, he doesn't go through his progressions well, he frankly doesn't inspire confidence via his ability to operate a pro offense. Kaepernick does. Just my two cents.

Even if you believe the bolded above, which I don't, Cam has the huge advantage of playing on a team that will be forced to pass because of their division and their defense. I think Kaep is going to disappoint people who reach on his upside while I think Cam at QB5-6 makes perfect sense to me. Teams look back at the Baltimore and Seattle and more importantly Green Bay games and I expect some regression

Assuming 16 games:

3350 passing yds, 18 TD, 15 Int

575 rushing yds, 7 TD

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I like him but I think defenses figure him out a bit this year and we see a regression from the tear he went on last season. I think Atlanta and Baltimore sure as heck handled him a lot better than Green Bay did. We'll see a mix as defenses get more tape with some up and down games. Right now his receiving corps is not great. Vernon Davis, an aging Anquan Boldin and not much else.

The rushing stats will buoy his fantasy production. I am thinking Cam Newton lite here as I don't think he's as good as Cam. I think Dgreen's projections are pretty solid, I'll tweak those a bit to reflect a few more picks and rushes.

3700/24/13

80/560/5

Makes sense for the most part.

Regarding your Cam comment.....can you clarify? While I might say that Cam is more athletic and a bigger threat to run, I personally think Kaepernick is a far superior throwing QB. Cam can't read defenses for ####, he doesn't go through his progressions well, he frankly doesn't inspire confidence via his ability to operate a pro offense. Kaepernick does. Just my two cents.

Even if you believe the bolded above, which I don't, Cam has the huge advantage of playing on a team that will be forced to pass because of their division and their defense. I think Kaep is going to disappoint people who reach on his upside while I think Cam at QB5-6 makes perfect sense to me. Teams look back at the Baltimore and Seattle and more importantly Green Bay games and I expect some regression

Assuming 16 games:

3350 passing yds, 18 TD, 15 Int

575 rushing yds, 7 TD

I'm fine with assuming that his performance drops a bit (per play) vs last year. That seems reasonable.

The piece I truly don't understand is the suggestion that Cam is a superior QB. He's a better running QB, but he has literally shown nothing in 2 seasons to demonstrate superior passing ability. What specifically do you see in Cam as a passer?

 

[Concept Coop]

I like him but I think defenses figure him out a bit this year and we see a regression from the tear he went on last season. I think Atlanta and Baltimore sure as heck handled him a lot better than Green Bay did. We'll see a mix as defenses get more tape with some up and down games. Right now his receiving corps is not great. Vernon Davis, an aging Anquan Boldin and not much else.

The rushing stats will buoy his fantasy production. I am thinking Cam Newton lite here as I don't think he's as good as Cam. I think Dgreen's projections are pretty solid, I'll tweak those a bit to reflect a few more picks and rushes.

3700/24/13

80/560/5

Makes sense for the most part.

Regarding your Cam comment.....can you clarify? While I might say that Cam is more athletic and a bigger threat to run, I personally think Kaepernick is a far superior throwing QB. Cam can't read defenses for ####, he doesn't go through his progressions well, he frankly doesn't inspire confidence via his ability to operate a pro offense. Kaepernick does. Just my two cents.

Even if you believe the bolded above, which I don't, Cam has the huge advantage of playing on a team that will be forced to pass because of their division and their defense. I think Kaep is going to disappoint people who reach on his upside while I think Cam at QB5-6 makes perfect sense to me. Teams look back at the Baltimore and Seattle and more importantly Green Bay games and I expect some regression

Assuming 16 games:

3350 passing yds, 18 TD, 15 Int

575 rushing yds, 7 TD

I'm fine with assuming that his performance drops a bit (per play) vs last year. That seems reasonable.

The piece I truly don't understand is the suggestion that Cam is a superior QB. He's a better running QB, but he has literally shown nothing in 2 seasons to demonstrate superior passing ability. What specifically do you see in Cam as a passer?

Cam set all kinds of rookie passing records. I wouldn't call that nothing.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I like him but I think defenses figure him out a bit this year and we see a regression from the tear he went on last season. I think Atlanta and Baltimore sure as heck handled him a lot better than Green Bay did. We'll see a mix as defenses get more tape with some up and down games. Right now his receiving corps is not great. Vernon Davis, an aging Anquan Boldin and not much else.

The rushing stats will buoy his fantasy production. I am thinking Cam Newton lite here as I don't think he's as good as Cam. I think Dgreen's projections are pretty solid, I'll tweak those a bit to reflect a few more picks and rushes.

3700/24/13

80/560/5

Makes sense for the most part.

Regarding your Cam comment.....can you clarify? While I might say that Cam is more athletic and a bigger threat to run, I personally think Kaepernick is a far superior throwing QB. Cam can't read defenses for ####, he doesn't go through his progressions well, he frankly doesn't inspire confidence via his ability to operate a pro offense. Kaepernick does. Just my two cents.

Even if you believe the bolded above, which I don't, Cam has the huge advantage of playing on a team that will be forced to pass because of their division and their defense. I think Kaep is going to disappoint people who reach on his upside while I think Cam at QB5-6 makes perfect sense to me. Teams look back at the Baltimore and Seattle and more importantly Green Bay games and I expect some regression

Assuming 16 games:

3350 passing yds, 18 TD, 15 Int

575 rushing yds, 7 TD

I'm fine with assuming that his performance drops a bit (per play) vs last year. That seems reasonable.

The piece I truly don't understand is the suggestion that Cam is a superior QB. He's a better running QB, but he has literally shown nothing in 2 seasons to demonstrate superior passing ability. What specifically do you see in Cam as a passer?

Cam set all kinds of rookie passing records. I wouldn't call that nothing.

Which specific rookie passing record did you find impressive?

 

[TheDirtyWord]

The trend with QB’s in 2013 so far has been to let them drop. With a solid 13-14 who owners feel have the pedigree to put up QB1 numbers, this translates to most taking a safe approach to the position. In terms of draft priority, owners are targeting other positions.. In fairness, the 2nd tier of QB’s after the Ryan/Cam cliff are all bunched up within Rounds 6-7. There are 6 QB’s that seem to be in this group.

1. Kaepernick
2. Luck
3. RGIII
4. Romo
5. Stafford
6. Wilson

At the moment, Kaepernick is going 1st of these 6, but the margins are razor thin. But let’s explore this group because drafting is about balancing safety with upside.

Luck - #1 overall pick in 2012. Offense runs through him. Has ability to gain points with his legs. Upside is limitless…has the body and smarts to last.
RGIII - #2 overall pick in 2012. Offense runs through him. Would be drafted higher if not for questions about ACL recovery. Incredibly efficient and explosive prior to injury; averaged 35.6 pass & run attempts/game. Read option offense.
Stafford – Huge passing yardage numbers last two years. Attempts off the charts. 2011 was a great TD year. 2012 was a bad TD year. #1 overall pick in 2009. Has best WR in the game at his disposal.
Romo – Career 7.94 YPA and 64%+ completion rate. Yardage totals usually settle in the mid 4000’s in seasons where he plays 16. INT rate high in 2012 but that was an aberration. Can be streaky.
Wilson – came on huge during the latter stages of rookie year. Percy Harvin has been added to the equation. Lowest workload by significant margin in 2012 with only 30.5 pass & run attempts/game.

With perhaps the exception of Wilson and I’ m not so sure he should be excluded, I feel as if all of the QB’s listed above have similar upsides to Kaepernick If that’s the case then this becomes a value conversation, not an upside one and with Romo logging in as the option with the lowest ADP, all comparisons with regard to upside/downside/value need to start with him. In addition, Eli Manning comes in a round and a half lower than Romo and he’s just a season removed from almost throwing for 5000 yards. If you really want to get greedy at the QB position, you can throw him into the mix as well. But at the end of the day, I could not say with any conviction that Kaepernick should finish above any of the QB's in this tier. And with the 49ers as committed to the run as they are, I think despite the excitement around Kaepernick, he's not going to come close to 500 passing attempts. That's critical.

Let’s not forget, Kaepernick is going to be without Michael Crabtree. Too get a sense for how important Crabtree was to Kaepernick last year, realize that Crabtree accounted for 34% of all of Kaepernicks’ targets once he became the starter. That number is higher than any other WR’s target percentage for at least the last 5 years other than Brandon Marshall last season. 8 of Kaepernick’s 14 passing TD’s went to Crabtree. Granted, Anquan Boldin was brought in and Vernon Davis should no longer be criminally underused. But for a young QB to rely on a player this much and to then have that player removed from the equation so early in his career…that speaks to the risk factor involved with Kaepernick in 2013. Truth be told, if you ask me, none of the other QB’s listed above (a-f) have the same risk factor as does Kaepernick and from an upside perspective, I don’t see it compared to those 6 other QB’s to balance out why I would draft him over them. I’ll let someone else fall in love with him.

Prediction: 276 Completions, 451 Attempts, 3312 Passing Yards 17 TD’s 14 INT’s; 109 Rushing Attempts, 610 Rushing Yards, 7 TD’s.

 

[Grahamburn]

Anybody else click on a topic immediately after seeing DirtyWord has responded? Great work in these threads! Bravo.

 

[drummer]

Anybody else click on a topic immediately after seeing DirtyWord has responded? Great work in these threads! Bravo.

Yeah, I don't play FF, but his posts are very well put together for someone like myself to enjoy.

 

[FF Ninja]

Drummer, how many attempts per game are you expecting? Last year, they averaged 27.3. A 10% bump would be 30 attempts per game. At that rate he would have to have a YPA above 8.3. Aaron Rodgers has eclipsed 8.3 ypa one time in his career. I think it is time for the Kaepernick fans to put down the kool aid.

They play in a completely different offense. Apples to oranges. YPA is not a clear indicator of production when the roles are not the same. Rodgers is asked to do a lot more, a lot more often.

I agree but that doesn't mean 8.3 YPA is easy to achieve even when the defense is primarily focusing on the run. I give it a 2% chance of occurring.

 

[timschochet]

Thoughts after this game?

 

[Dark Matter]

The trend with QBs in 2013 so far has been to let them drop. With a solid 13-14 who owners feel have the pedigree to put up QB1 numbers, this translates to most taking a safe approach to the position. In terms of draft priority, owners are targeting other positions.. In fairness, the 2nd tier of QBs after the Ryan/Cam cliff are all bunched up within Rounds 6-7. There are 6 QBs that seem to be in this group.

• Kaepernick
• Luck
• RGIII
• Romo
• Stafford
• Wilson

At the moment, Kaepernick is going 1st of these 6, but the margins are razor thin. But lets explore this group because drafting is about balancing safety with upside.Luck - #1 overall pick in 2012. Offense runs through him. Has ability to gain points with his legs. Upside is limitlesshas the body and smarts to last.RGIII - #2 overall pick in 2012. Offense runs through him. Would be drafted higher if not for questions about ACL recovery. Incredibly efficient and explosive prior to injury; averaged 35.6 pass & run attempts/game. Read option offense.Stafford Huge passing yardage numbers last two years. Attempts off the charts. 2011 was a great TD year. 2012 was a bad TD year. #1 overall pick in 2009. Has best WR in the game at his disposal.Romo Career 7.94 YPA and 64%+ completion rate. Yardage totals usually settle in the mid 4000s in seasons where he plays 16. INT rate high in 2012 but that was an aberration. Can be streaky.Wilson came on huge during the latter stages of rookie year. Percy Harvin has been added to the equation. Lowest workload by significant margin in 2012 with only 30.5 pass & run attempts/game.

With perhaps the exception of Wilson and I m not so sure he should be excluded, I feel as if all of the QBs listed above have similar upsides to Kaepernick If thats the case then this becomes a value conversation, not an upside one and with Romo logging in as the option with the lowest ADP, all comparisons with regard to upside/downside/value need to start with him. In addition, Eli Manning comes in a round and a half lower than Romo and hes just a season removed from almost throwing for 5000 yards. If you really want to get greedy at the QB position, you can throw him into the mix as well. But at the end of the day, I could not say with any conviction that Kaepernick should finish above any of the QB's in this tier. And with the 49ers as committed to the run as they are, I think despite the excitement around Kaepernick, he's not going to come close to 500 passing attempts. That's critical.

Lets not forget, Kaepernick is going to be without Michael Crabtree. Too get a sense for how important Crabtree was to Kaepernick last year, realize that Crabtree accounted for 34% of all of Kaepernicks targets once he became the starter. That number is higher than any other WRs target percentage for at least the last 5 years other than Brandon Marshall last season. 8 of Kaepernicks 14 passing TDs went to Crabtree. Granted, Anquan Boldin was brought in and Vernon Davis should no longer be criminally underused. But for a young QB to rely on a player this much and to then have that player removed from the equation so early in his careerthat speaks to the risk factor involved with Kaepernick in 2013. Truth be told, if you ask me, none of the other QBs listed above (a-f) have the same risk factor as does Kaepernick and from an upside perspective, I dont see it compared to those 6 other QBs to balance out why I would draft him over them. Ill let someone else fall in love with him.

Prediction: 276 Completions, 451 Attempts, 3312 Passing Yards 17 TDs 14 INTs; 109 Rushing Attempts, 610 Rushing Yards, 7 TDs.

Note to self: read more Dirty Word

 

[FatmanLittleboy]

I'm buying into Kap in my start two QB league. If anything I think the rushing QB's can be fantasy gold as RG3 was a stud in 6 points for TD leagues. Colin seems more talented than Wilson to me physically and he has better weapons. Boldin, Vernon, Patton, Gore vs. really who for Wilson?

So put me down in the "he has top 5 potential every week camp" along with guys like Cam and RG3. My weekly salary cap strategy is to buy Kap and Vick at QB. The value is there in Re-draft as well.

I project around 4,000 yards passing and 650 rushing yards. Scores 30- TD's total with 14 INTS. Should finish top 5 this year so if he's slipping in your draft due to Crabtree's injury don't be shy. Take a shot to win!

 

[Kai's Hero]

Comparing Kap to Russell? More talented physically? Nobody escapes pressure better than Russell Wilson. Kap better than Russell? You're out of your mind! Once Carroll took the reigns off, Wilson was the best rookie QB in the league, including RG3. The numbers don't lie. This kid is special. He proved it last year and he's going to be even better this year.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Comparing Kap to Russell? More talented physically? Nobody escapes pressure better than Russell Wilson. Kap better than Russell? You're out of your mind! Once Carroll took the reigns off, Wilson was the best rookie QB in the league, including RG3. The numbers don't lie. This kid is special. He proved it last year and he's going to be even better this year.

Which numbers are you referring to specifically?

 

[drummer]

Comparing Kap to Russell? More talented physically? Nobody escapes pressure better than Russell Wilson. Kap better than Russell? You're out of your mind! Once Carroll took the reigns off, Wilson was the best rookie QB in the league, including RG3. The numbers don't lie. This kid is special. He proved it last year and he's going to be even better this year.

ItS has a new alias?

 

[FatmanLittleboy]

Comparing Kap to Russell? More talented physically? Nobody escapes pressure better than Russell Wilson. Kap better than Russell? You're out of your mind! Once Carroll took the reigns off, Wilson was the best rookie QB in the league, including RG3. The numbers don't lie. This kid is special. He proved it last year and he's going to be even better this year.

Whoah hey I just got back from Seattle. I didn't say you guys were doomed. But who's he tossing the rock to this year Tate and ?

 

[zamboni]

I project around 4,000 yards passing and 650 rushing yards. Scores 30- TD's total with 14 INTS.

I don't think he's going to throw enough to get to 4K yards, although 30TDs seems in reach when you combine rushing and passing.

 

[FatmanLittleboy]

I project around 4,000 yards passing and 650 rushing yards. Scores 30- TD's total with 14 INTS.

I don't think he's going to throw enough to get to 4K yards, although 30TDs seems in reach when you combine rushing and passing.

If he doesnt get 4k passing I could see the rushing numbers being higher too.