Player Spotlight: Curtis Martin (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Curtis Martin, RB, New York Jets

Player Page Link: Curtis Martin Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Jason Wood]

Wow...Curtis Martin is on the wrong side of 30 and was hurt last year, but he is one season removed from leading the league in rushing. There's no indication that he won't be given every chance to be the Jets feature back in 2006, yet he warrants no discussion?

Not a single FBG staffer currently ranks Curtis as a top 20 fantasy back...with the highest ranking (my own) at 25th, while Bob Henry and Jeff Pasquino have him ranked 40th.

How do you see Martin's season progressing?

To put some perspective on what the low end rankings imply...

2005 RB40 = Antowain Smith
2004 RB40 = William Green
2003 RB40 = Amos Zereoue
2002 RB40 = James Mungro
2001 RB40 = Tony RichardsonThe average output for RB40 over the last five years =

124.8 rushes
440.8 yards
3.53 yards per rush
4.4 rushing TDs
21.8 receptions
157.2 yards receiving
0 receiving TDs
86.4 fantasy points (FBG scoring)Honestly, people don't think there's value in Curtis Martin if that's what people are expecting of him? I can't see how he doesn't summarily smash through those expectations.

 

[Rovers]

I think Martin's anticipated value takes a big hit due to the lowly expectations on the Jets in 2006. I still was surprised to see him ranked so low, however.

We know little Schottenheimer will install the SD offensive scheme. That tells me run first, short passing game offense. Martin's best years were behind a Jets line that was more athletic than powerful, and featured a lot of draws, misdirection and outside runs.... and the "new" Jets O line is similar. Athletic fast linemen who can pull, get outside and block in space.

In addition, the one year experiment with O line zone blocking is history. That should help Martin, but only if they run outside a whole bunch more than SD does.

This new CS also does not have the loyalty factor that Hermie the Wermie had for Curtis. Taking any Jet, even Martin at this point is nothing more than a crapshoot. Not until the third preseason game will anyone have any idea of what and how much RBBC there will be. Both Blaylock and rookie Washington seem to be fast 3rd down RB's, Houston is about Martin's speed, can't change direction as well, but does have more inside the tackles power. Then, there is the wildcard.... Dontrelle Moore, he of three 1000+ yards rushing in college.

So many questions, so few answers at this point.... and this is how I would explain the reluctance to rank Martin any higher right now. That could change significantly down the road.

My best guess, and it's very iffy, is :

210 carries

820 yards

5 TD's

25 Rec's

175 yards

1 TD

 

[Chadstroma]

Great points by Jason. I see this year being similiar to E. Smith's last year in Arizona. I took him in every single draft I had both re-draft, keeper, and dynasty (which was the first draft for the dynasty that year) where you can not expect huge numbers but come draft day people will scoff and laugh as you pick him in the mid rounds however you will get the value out of him. I think that value lies in 25-35th RB taken. Easily for good spot duty.

Using the average of the 5 years of the RB40 as an over/under:

124.8 rushes- over.... more like 200

440.8 yards- over..... more like 800

3.53 yards per rush- over.... more like 4 ypc

4.4 rushing TDs- over.... more like 6 TD

21.8 receptions- over.... more like 30

157.2 yards receiving- over.... more like 250

0 receiving TDs- push? guessing no catching TD's

 

[CalBear]

Frankly, I don't think the history looks good for Martin. I looked for starting running backs 30+ years old who had a season with 3.0-3.5 yards per carry since 1980. Of that set, only Jerome Bettis 2003, John Riggins 1982, Ottis Anderson 1989, and Lamar Smith 2001 went on to have another season in their careers which bettered the RB40 average posted above. All of those backs were much more sled-dog oriented than Martin. There isn't, therefore, a lot of evidence that an aging, shifty back who relies on his moves can come back from a really bad season like the one Martin just had.

If anyone can do it, Martin can; his work ethic is legendary and he can play through pain. But I'm afraid his day has passed.

I'm reluctant to post projections, just because my negativity on Martin is mostly due to injury risk, combined with team suckiness. If he plays 16 games, he'll certainly do better than RB40, but I don't have confidence that he will.

But since them's the rulez...

275 carries, 3.5 ypc, 962 yards, 6 TDs. 40 receptions, 5.5 ypr, 220 yards, 1 TD. Good for approximately RB#20.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Frankly, I don't think the history looks good for Martin. I looked for starting running backs 30+ years old who had a season with 3.0-3.5 yards per carry since 1980. Of that set, only Jerome Bettis 2003, John Riggins 1982, Ottis Anderson 1989, and Lamar Smith 2001 went on to have another season in their careers which bettered the RB40 average posted above. All of those backs were much more sled-dog oriented than Martin. There isn't, therefore, a lot of evidence that an aging, shifty back who relies on his moves can come back from a really bad season like the one Martin just had.

If anyone can do it, Martin can; his work ethic is legendary and he can play through pain. But I'm afraid his day has passed.

I'm reluctant to post projections, just because my negativity on Martin is mostly due to injury risk, combined with team suckiness. If he plays 16 games, he'll certainly do better than RB40, but I don't have confidence that he will.

But since them's the rulez...

275 carries, 3.5 ypc, 962 yards, 6 TDs. 40 receptions, 5.5 ypr, 220 yards, 1 TD. Good for approximately RB#20.

Since 1980, there are only seven RB seasons of 200 carries for 3.0-3.5 YPC by a 30+ year old RB.Eddie George in 2003

Ottis Anderson is 1989 and 1991

Lamar Smith in 2001 and 2002

Jerome Bettis in 2003

Curtis Martin in 2005

Of those six seasons (excluding Curtis Martin), you've only got Eddie George left. George's running style was more like the guy's you wanted to eliminate (Smith, Bettis, Anderson) than Martin as well.

Either way, I'm not sure where you were going. On one hand, it looks like the few guys that meet the criteria have followed that season up with a top 40 fantasy year. On the other, you want to discount all the guys (for valid reasons) which leaves no comps left. If that's the case, I don't see what weight the conclusion that no RB has ever done what Martin is about to do holds. It's like saying no RB like Martin has ever not led the NFL in rushing TDs the next year.

 

[CalBear]

Frankly, I don't think the history looks good for Martin. I looked for starting running backs 30+ years old who had a season with 3.0-3.5 yards per carry since 1980. Of that set, only Jerome Bettis 2003, John Riggins 1982, Ottis Anderson 1989, and Lamar Smith 2001 went on to have another season in their careers which bettered the RB40 average posted above. All of those backs were much more sled-dog oriented than Martin. There isn't, therefore, a lot of evidence that an aging, shifty back who relies on his moves can come back from a really bad season like the one Martin just had.

If anyone can do it, Martin can; his work ethic is legendary and he can play through pain. But I'm afraid his day has passed.

I'm reluctant to post projections, just because my negativity on Martin is mostly due to injury risk, combined with team suckiness. If he plays 16 games, he'll certainly do better than RB40, but I don't have confidence that he will.

But since them's the rulez...

275 carries, 3.5 ypc, 962 yards, 6 TDs. 40 receptions, 5.5 ypr, 220 yards, 1 TD. Good for approximately RB#20.

Since 1980, there are only seven RB seasons of 200 carries for 3.0-3.5 YPC by a 30+ year old RB.Eddie George in 2003

Ottis Anderson is 1989 and 1991

Lamar Smith in 2001 and 2002

Jerome Bettis in 2003

Curtis Martin in 2005

Of those six seasons (excluding Curtis Martin), you've only got Eddie George left. George's running style was more like the guy's you wanted to eliminate (Smith, Bettis, Anderson) than Martin as well.

Either way, I'm not sure where you were going. On one hand, it looks like the few guys that meet the criteria have followed that season up with a top 40 fantasy year. On the other, you want to discount all the guys (for valid reasons) which leaves no comps left. If that's the case, I don't see what weight the conclusion that no RB has ever done what Martin is about to do holds. It's like saying no RB like Martin has ever not led the NFL in rushing TDs the next year.

I admit the data are flimsy. My gut feeling is that a sled dog back is more likely to survive with production into his mid-30s than a shifty back, and that once a shifty back falls off (as Martin did in 2005) he's not likely to recover. But the situation is rare enough that any conclusions drawn are weak. I think Martin is likely to be available for very cheap in drafts and auctions, and is probably worth targeting where you can get him. But I would be surprised if he came up with another 1000-yard season, or 4.0 ypc.

 

[tri-man 47]

I had looked it up for another discussion and saw that CMart has had 4,000 touches! (and 3.3 ypc, I believe)

120 carries for 3.3 yards = 400 yards

Maybe 3 or 4 TDs

Nothing to see here, please move along.

 

[Team Legacy]

Let's see - At RB28 last year, Curtis is now being drafted at RB33. He only played 12 games last year and over half of the games were playing catch up due to a terrible QB position.

Let's take a closer look...

11 games with Brooks Bollinger

6 games with Vinny

3 games with Chad

1 half with Jay Fiedler

a couple throws by Kliff Kingsbury

How scared do you think the opposing defenses were ? Was this Curtis getting old or was it something more???

Week 1 - Down 17-0 at halftime, they abandoned the run.

Curtis had 59 yards at halftime.

Week 2 - Curtis had 61 yards at halftime and beat a tough Dolphins run D.

Week 3 - Curtis runs for 41 yards on 11 carries in the first half. The Jags D clamps down on Pennington (spaghetti arm starts to show) and Curtis gets 1 3rd quarter carry.

Week 4 - Bollinger against Baltimore. You think Ray Lewis was scared? Uh no.. They stack the box and stuff the run. Curtis actually runs for 24 yards in the first quarter and gets 1 carry in the second.

Week 5 - Vinny and the Jets beat Tampa.. These guys aren't half bad right? 2 carries in the first quarter for Curtis?? Vinny tryin to do too much. Curtis rushes for 2 TDs in the victory.

Week 6 - Vinny gets dominated by the bills, but look at Curtis. 18 for 148 and 1 TD. WOW!

Week 7 - Anybody remember this MOnday night affair against Mike Vick? Vinny and Bollinger were an embarassment against the Falcons, but I do remember at least 3-4 bad calls that were big plays that didn't go the Jets way. A little "pampering" of the NFLs most exciting athlete. 14 for 28 and a TD along with 3 recepts for 26 yards = 14.4 fantasy points.

Week 9 - 47 yards and a TD in the first half against the Bolts. Tomlinsons 3 TDs in the first half completely control the game, he adds a 4th in the 3rd, and the Jets abandon the run once again. 72 and a TD for Curtis.

Week 10 - Bollinger and his 4 picks against the PANTHERS. This one is a laugher 30-3. What did Curtis do? With only 1 4th quarter carry, he manages 81 total yards.

Week 11 - The Broncos - The season is officially over for the JETS. 27-0. 3 QBs for the Jets, Vinny, Brooks and Kingsbury see action. Curtis gets only 4 carries.

Week 12 - Curtis sees action against the saints and makes the most of it. Curtis has 96 yards by the end of the 3rd but Bollinger botches it again.

Week 13 - In the last game of the season for Curtis, he ends up with 9.5 fantasy points on 15 carries against a surging Patriots team. Bollinger is 15 for 37.

What can Curtis do with a QB that the defenses actually respect? Will Chad Pennington's arm be back to full strength? Will the addition of the 2 Offensive Lineman in the draft help Curtis?

I say yes to all! As a Jets homer, I obviously am biased, but look at the facts. There's nothing wrong with Curtis, don't be deceived, the problem lies with the QB. If that can be somewhat resolved, he could be big-time value at RB33.

 

[sheerterror]

Let's see - At RB28 last year, Curtis is now being drafted at RB25. He only played 12 games last year and over half of the games were playing catch up due to a terrible QB position.

Let's take a closer look...

11 games with Brooks Bollinger

6 games with Vinny

3 games with Chad

1 half with Jay Fiedler

a couple throws by Kliff Kingsbury

How scared do you think the opposing defenses were ? Was this Curtis getting old or was it something more???

Week 1 - Down 17-0 at halftime, they abandoned the run.

Curtis had 59 yards at halftime.

Week 2 - Curtis had 61 yards at halftime and beat a tough Dolphins run D.

Week 3 - Curtis runs for 41 yards on 11 carries in the first half. The Jags D clamps down on Pennington (spaghetti arm starts to show) and Curtis gets 1 3rd quarter carry.

Week 4 - Bollinger against Baltimore. You think Ray Lewis was scared? Uh no.. They stack the box and stuff the run. Curtis actually runs for 24 yards in the first quarter and gets 1 carry in the second.

Week 5 - Vinny and the Jets beat Tampa.. These guys aren't half bad right? 2 carries in the first quarter for Curtis?? Vinny tryin to do too much. Curtis rushes for 2 TDs in the victory.

Week 6 - Vinny gets dominated by the bills, but look at Curtis. 18 for 148 and 1 TD. WOW!

Week 7 - Anybody remember this MOnday night affair against Mike Vick? Vinny and Bollinger were an embarassment against the Falcons, but I do remember at least 3-4 bad calls that were big plays that didn't go the Jets way. A little "pampering" of the NFLs most exciting athlete. 14 for 28 and a TD along with 3 recepts for 26 yards = 14.4 fantasy points.

Week 9 - 47 yards and a TD in the first half against the Bolts. Tomlinsons 3 TDs in the first half completely control the game, he adds a 4th in the 3rd, and the Jets abandon the run once again. 72 and a TD for Curtis.

Week 10 - Bollinger and his 4 picks against the PANTHERS. This one is a laugher 30-3. What did Curtis do? With only 1 4th quarter carry, he manages 81 total yards.

Week 11 - The Broncos - The season is officially over for the JETS. 27-0. 3 QBs for the Jets, Vinny, Brooks and Kingsbury see action. Curtis gets only 4 carries.

Week 12 - Curtis sees action against the saints and makes the most of it. Curtis has 96 yards by the end of the 3rd but Bollinger botches it again.

Week 13 - In the last game of the season for Curtis, he ends up with 9.5 fantasy points on 15 carries against a surging Patriots team. Bollinger is 15 for 37.

What can Curtis do with a QB that the defenses actually respect? Will Chad Pennington's arm be back to full strength? Will the addition of the 2 Offensive Lineman in the draft help Curtis?

I say yes to all! As a Jets homer, I obviously am biased, but look at the facts. There's nothing wrong with Curtis, don't be deceived, the problem lies with the QB. If that can be somewhat resolved, he could be big-time value at RB25.

I'm not saying this guy is going to be top 10, but to have him ranked in the RB40 range like some people seem to think he will land in is, IMO, ignorant. Despite running on a bum knee and the having an abysmal QB situation for much/all of 05, Martin's numbers still prorate to close to 1000 yards in a full season. This guy is the epitome of durability and his 04 stats debunked the 'over 30 and it's all downhill' label. So what changed so much from '04 and '05? Well, a number of things that were already mentioned by Team Legacy; but little of that had to do directly with Martin's simply being a year older. I'm very curious to see what he can do in what should be a somewhat improved offense - but aside from an RBBC (which is certainly possibly as anything can happen) I see Martin easily outperforming many of these projections and I feel that he poses tremendous value in later rounds of redrafts.

 

[Tau837]

Let's see - At RB28 last year, Curtis is now being drafted at RB25. He only played 12 games last year and over half of the games were playing catch up due to a terrible QB position.

Let's take a closer look...

11 games with Brooks Bollinger

6 games with Vinny

3 games with Chad

1 half with Jay Fiedler

a couple throws by Kliff Kingsbury

How scared do you think the opposing defenses were ? Was this Curtis getting old or was it something more???

Week 1 - Down 17-0 at halftime, they abandoned the run.

Curtis had 59 yards at halftime.

Week 2 - Curtis had 61 yards at halftime and beat a tough Dolphins run D.

Week 3 - Curtis runs for 41 yards on 11 carries in the first half. The Jags D clamps down on Pennington (spaghetti arm starts to show) and Curtis gets 1 3rd quarter carry.

Week 4 - Bollinger against Baltimore. You think Ray Lewis was scared? Uh no.. They stack the box and stuff the run. Curtis actually runs for 24 yards in the first quarter and gets 1 carry in the second.

Week 5 - Vinny and the Jets beat Tampa.. These guys aren't half bad right? 2 carries in the first quarter for Curtis?? Vinny tryin to do too much. Curtis rushes for 2 TDs in the victory.

Week 6 - Vinny gets dominated by the bills, but look at Curtis. 18 for 148 and 1 TD. WOW!

Week 7 - Anybody remember this MOnday night affair against Mike Vick? Vinny and Bollinger were an embarassment against the Falcons, but I do remember at least 3-4 bad calls that were big plays that didn't go the Jets way. A little "pampering" of the NFLs most exciting athlete. 14 for 28 and a TD along with 3 recepts for 26 yards = 14.4 fantasy points.

Week 9 - 47 yards and a TD in the first half against the Bolts. Tomlinsons 3 TDs in the first half completely control the game, he adds a 4th in the 3rd, and the Jets abandon the run once again. 72 and a TD for Curtis.

Week 10 - Bollinger and his 4 picks against the PANTHERS. This one is a laugher 30-3. What did Curtis do? With only 1 4th quarter carry, he manages 81 total yards.

Week 11 - The Broncos - The season is officially over for the JETS. 27-0. 3 QBs for the Jets, Vinny, Brooks and Kingsbury see action. Curtis gets only 4 carries.

Week 12 - Curtis sees action against the saints and makes the most of it. Curtis has 96 yards by the end of the 3rd but Bollinger botches it again.

Week 13 - In the last game of the season for Curtis, he ends up with 9.5 fantasy points on 15 carries against a surging Patriots team. Bollinger is 15 for 37.

What can Curtis do with a QB that the defenses actually respect? Will Chad Pennington's arm be back to full strength? Will the addition of the 2 Offensive Lineman in the draft help Curtis?

I say yes to all! As a Jets homer, I obviously am biased, but look at the facts. There's nothing wrong with Curtis, don't be deceived, the problem lies with the QB. If that can be somewhat resolved, he could be big-time value at RB25.

Nice post. I agree. I am one who tends to discount the all RBs that fit a certain criteria have historically done this... kind of argument and look at individual cases. Martin is not similar to the few others who were discussed earlier in this thread, so there is no valid precedent... and even if one argues that there were a few comparables, the sample size is too small to draw conclusions.For example, entering the 2004 season, Martin was 31 and was coming off a year in which he was RB18. If we ran the data to look at all 31+ year old RBs who were coming off a year not in the top 15 RBs, what would it have predicted for Martin in 2004? Not a NFL rushing title, fantasy RB4 kind of season, I'm sure.

Does that mean he'll do it again? No, of course not. But I think it does mean that you have to judge Martin on his merits and the merits of his situation, not on a small sample of distantly comparable historical data.

 

[Tau837]

Frankly, I don't think the history looks good for Martin. I looked for starting running backs 30+ years old who had a season with 3.0-3.5 yards per carry since 1980. Of that set, only Jerome Bettis 2003, John Riggins 1982, Ottis Anderson 1989, and Lamar Smith 2001 went on to have another season in their careers which bettered the RB40 average posted above. All of those backs were much more sled-dog oriented than Martin. There isn't, therefore, a lot of evidence that an aging, shifty back who relies on his moves can come back from a really bad season like the one Martin just had.

If anyone can do it, Martin can; his work ethic is legendary and he can play through pain. But I'm afraid his day has passed.

I'm reluctant to post projections, just because my negativity on Martin is mostly due to injury risk, combined with team suckiness. If he plays 16 games, he'll certainly do better than RB40, but I don't have confidence that he will.

But since them's the rulez...

275 carries, 3.5 ypc, 962 yards, 6 TDs. 40 receptions, 5.5 ypr, 220 yards, 1 TD. Good for approximately RB#20.

Interesting data. But none of those backs are as good as Martin. (Bettis is close.) So I don't think these are valid to use to predict Martin's performance.My predictions:

275/1125/7 rushing, 35/190/0 receiving, 173.5 fantasy points (good for RB13 last season)

Outstanding value.

 

[10993]

Not a Starter.

 

[Payne]

I'll gladly take him as a #3 RB. He could put up #2 RB numbers easily.

 

[Reaper]

Let's see - At RB28 last year, Curtis is now being drafted at RB25. He only played 12 games last year and over half of the games were playing catch up due to a terrible QB position.

Let's take a closer look...

11 games with Brooks Bollinger

6 games with Vinny

3 games with Chad

1 half with Jay Fiedler

a couple throws by Kliff Kingsbury

How scared do you think the opposing defenses were ? Was this Curtis getting old or was it something more???

Week 1 - Down 17-0 at halftime, they abandoned the run.

Curtis had 59 yards at halftime.

Week 2 - Curtis had 61 yards at halftime and beat a tough Dolphins run D.

Week 3 - Curtis runs for 41 yards on 11 carries in the first half. The Jags D clamps down on Pennington (spaghetti arm starts to show) and Curtis gets 1 3rd quarter carry.

Week 4 - Bollinger against Baltimore. You think Ray Lewis was scared? Uh no.. They stack the box and stuff the run. Curtis actually runs for 24 yards in the first quarter and gets 1 carry in the second.

Week 5 - Vinny and the Jets beat Tampa.. These guys aren't half bad right? 2 carries in the first quarter for Curtis?? Vinny tryin to do too much. Curtis rushes for 2 TDs in the victory.

Week 6 - Vinny gets dominated by the bills, but look at Curtis. 18 for 148 and 1 TD. WOW!

Week 7 - Anybody remember this MOnday night affair against Mike Vick? Vinny and Bollinger were an embarassment against the Falcons, but I do remember at least 3-4 bad calls that were big plays that didn't go the Jets way. A little "pampering" of the NFLs most exciting athlete. 14 for 28 and a TD along with 3 recepts for 26 yards = 14.4 fantasy points.

Week 9 - 47 yards and a TD in the first half against the Bolts. Tomlinsons 3 TDs in the first half completely control the game, he adds a 4th in the 3rd, and the Jets abandon the run once again. 72 and a TD for Curtis.

Week 10 - Bollinger and his 4 picks against the PANTHERS. This one is a laugher 30-3. What did Curtis do? With only 1 4th quarter carry, he manages 81 total yards.

Week 11 - The Broncos - The season is officially over for the JETS. 27-0. 3 QBs for the Jets, Vinny, Brooks and Kingsbury see action. Curtis gets only 4 carries.

Week 12 - Curtis sees action against the saints and makes the most of it. Curtis has 96 yards by the end of the 3rd but Bollinger botches it again.

Week 13 - In the last game of the season for Curtis, he ends up with 9.5 fantasy points on 15 carries against a surging Patriots team. Bollinger is 15 for 37.

What can Curtis do with a QB that the defenses actually respect? Will Chad Pennington's arm be back to full strength? Will the addition of the 2 Offensive Lineman in the draft help Curtis?

I say yes to all! As a Jets homer, I obviously am biased, but look at the facts. There's nothing wrong with Curtis, don't be deceived, the problem lies with the QB. If that can be somewhat resolved, he could be big-time value at RB25.

And I was Completely on board for a while. But, little by little I hear more about his injury... At 1st I thought it was nothing and the guy was busy in his regular offseason program that rivals anyone in the NFL and I expected Martin to be back 100% and ready to go..... We need to know how he's progressing with this thing cuz if you tell me Martin is doing his training and is ready for the season, I'll tell you there's a TON of upside value in the guy - You tell me a 30+ RB has been rehabbing a major knee injury and didn't get to do the offseason program that gives him an advantage each year, and I don't know what to say till we hear more.

Watching Jets Nation, they mentioned Martin rehabbing from "MAJOR" knee surgery.... I don't think there's a lot of details out on exactly what he's going through.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think the big question is who would be running the ball for the Jets if NOT Martin. Houston? Blaylock? Washington? I have yet to see anything that the Jets are grooming someone else to take over for Cu-Mart, so it looks like another year of Martin.

While I don't see Martin as the RB40, I also don't see him as the RB20 either. In theory, the OL should be better at some point with two first round picks added. For now it looks like Mangold will be OL depth and not start.

I still think the offense will struggle no matter who the QB is and there may not be a lot of goal line opportunities. The Emmitt Smith in Arizona analogy may not be far off.

History is not really on Martin's side, as only 11 RB age 33 or older have scored 150 fantasy points in a season.

Similarly, only 2 other RB have had 4,000 touches. Walter Payton put up 750 total yards and 5 TD the only year after he crossed 4K touches. Emmitt lasted a bit longer, with seasons of 1064 combined/5, 363 combined/2, and 1042 combined/9 in his 3 seasons after eclipsing 4K touches.

Martin will probably be a fantasy team's RB3, which is probably where he should be. I don't see him putting up huge numbers anymore but he may have a few solid weeks.

260-960-6 rushing

30-170-0 receiving

149 fantasy points

Somewhere in the RB25 range

Given that Martin's current ADP is RB32, he should be a decent value but may not be a major difference maker for fantasy teams unless waiting on Martin translates into much better scoring at other positions.

 

[Reaper]

For now it looks like Mangold will be OL depth and not start.

Was this stated somewhere?I'd bet heavily against this.... I say Mangold starts from day 1. If not at Center then at Guard.

 

[David Yudkin]

For now it looks like Mangold will be OL depth and not start. 

Was this stated somewhere?I'd bet heavily against this.... I say Mangold starts from day 1. If not at Center then at Guard.

That was based on my brief look at a couple of depth charts that have him as the #2 and not starting. We are several months away from opening day, and certainly that is not etched in stone.

 

[Workhorse]

While I don't see Martin as the RB40, I also don't see him as the RB20 either. In theory, the OL should be better at some point with two first round picks added. For now it looks like Mangold will be OL depth and not start.

The O-line, to me, is the biggest question. How many teams have had such a drastic offensive line rebuild (adding rookies and losing a Pro Bowl guy like Mawae), and been successful running the ball in the first year?I just have a feeling it's going to take a while for that unit to gel. I'd stay away from the Jets running game if possible.

 

[sheerterror]

While I don't see Martin as the RB40, I also don't see him as the RB20 either. In theory, the OL should be better at some point with two first round picks added. For now it looks like Mangold will be OL depth and not start.

The O-line, to me, is the biggest question. How many teams have had such a drastic offensive line rebuild (adding rookies and losing a Pro Bowl guy like Mawae), and been successful running the ball in the first year?I just have a feeling it's going to take a while for that unit to gel. I'd stay away from the Jets running game if possible.

I think I speak for all Jets fans here when I say this: It can't be any worse than last season.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Re: The Offensive Line

2004: LT: Jason Fabini LG: Pete Kendall C: Kevin Mawae RG: Brandon Moore RT: Kareem McKenzie TE: Anthony Becht2005: LT: Adrian Jones LG: Jon. Goodwin C: Pete Kendall RG: Brandon Moore RT: Scott Gragg TE: Doug JolleyThe Jets offensive line turned over significantly from 2004 to 2005, with only Brandon Moore staying at the same position. Anthony Becht was another huge loss to the offensive line: he couldn't catch a cold, but he's an excellent run blocker. Martin was excellent in 2004, although the offensive line was one of the top 3 in the league and made him look better than he was. In 2005 Martin looked terrible, although the offensive line was abysmal and made him look much worse than he was.

 

[Chase Stuart]

More on Martin...

Martin rushed for 962 less yards in 2005 than 2004, while playing in only four less games. I looked at all RBs that didn't miss more than six more games the following year (so if a RB played 14 games the first year and 8 the next, he's in the study). I also only looked at RBs who were 27 or older the first year.

Charles White (1,051) leads the list with the biggest decrease in yards, followed by Martin. (If you remove the age requirements, Jamal Lewis (1,060) and Marcus Allen (1,000) also topped Martin's dropoff).

A few RBs have rebounded that third year to produce big numbers.

Corey Dillon at age 28 rushed for 1311, then 541, then 1635 at age 30.

Emmitt Smith at age 33 rushed for 975, then 256, then 937 at age 35.

Christian Okoye at age 28 rushed for 1480, then 805, then 1031 at age 30.

Stephen Davis at age 27 rushed for 1432, then 820, then 1444 at age 29.

Eddie George at age 27 rushed for 1509, then 939, then 1165 at age 29.

Duce Staley at age 27 rushed for 1029, then 463, then 830 at age 29.

James Stewart at age 29 rushed for 1184, then 685, then 1021 at age 31.

Chris Warren at age 27 rushed for 1346, then 855, then 847 at age 29.

Curtis Martin at age 28 rushed for 1513, then 1094, then 1308 at age 30.

Jerome Bettis at age 29 rushed for 1072, then 666, then 811 at age 31.

Franco Harris at age 29 rushed for 1186, then 789, then 987 at age 31.

Martin probably fits best with Emmitt Smith on that list, as he was the only one on that list older than Martin will be this year (he also had an equally enormous workload). History seems against Martin from having a big year, but it wouldn't be shocking if he came up with another 1,000 yard season. It's hard to find many comparisons for Martin, and lots of unique factors play a key role for each runner.

From a subjective perspective, I watched Martin every game last year. He was clearly bothered by injury for most of the season, but he looked as good as ever in that Bills game. One of the biggest problem for aging stars is consistency -- a guy can have a big game, but he can't keep doing it on a weekly basis. The biggest problem for Martin was that there were no running lanes for him use his superior vision and agility. He's going to be very dependent on his offensive line and staying healthy, which puts him in a rather large group of RBs for 2006.

 

[Rovers]

Re: The Offensive Line

2004: LT: Jason Fabini  LG: Pete Kendall  C: Kevin Mawae  RG: Brandon Moore  RT: Kareem McKenzie  TE: Anthony Becht2005: LT: Adrian Jones  LG: Jon. Goodwin  C: Pete Kendall RG: Brandon Moore  RT: Scott Gragg      TE: Doug JolleyThe Jets offensive line turned over significantly from 2004 to 2005, with only Brandon Moore staying at the same position. Anthony Becht was another huge loss to the offensive line: he couldn't catch a cold, but he's an excellent run blocker. Martin was excellent in 2004, although the offensive line was one of the top 3 in the league and made him look better than he was. In 2005 Martin looked terrible, although the offensive line was abysmal and made him look much worse than he was.

Not only did that O line make Martin look worse, so did the play calling. Bollinger was getting sacked on THREE STEP DROPS! That poor kid gets WAY too much blame for last year's debacle, which should all be on Herm Edwards. Because the Jets had no depth whatsoever on the O line, when Mawae got hurt, the whole line got shuffled. Kendall moved from LG to C.... and was abysmally lost there. He had to make the blocking assignments play call, but didn't even know who HE was supposed to block! Kendall was the reason Bollinger was getting hit immediately. Every Jets fan knew that Fabini could not pass block anymore, but Edwards went into the season with Fabini starting at LT. Finally, Fabini was demoted to RT, and Jones went to LT. Gragg filled in at LG.

It was a mess, and it lays at Edwards' feet. The man completely ignored the O line, and he gets off scott free.... pitiful.

Just to bury Edwards some more, despite his bogus claims that HE would NEVER jepordize a player by making him (or allowing him) to play injured.... he did just that with Martin last year. He eventually admitted he never should have kept sending Martin out there.... the knee injury was NOT a minor one. Edwards flatly stated he should have put Martin on the bench for at least two weeks.... which is probably an understaement. Lets not forget Edwards sent Pennington BACK INTO the game he tore his shoulder up in last year. Put him BACK IN!

Mangini's comments on Martin this spring were not encouraging. He talked about how he is rehabbing, and they would keep an eye on it.... very vague, and no sort of positive spin at all. Coach speak? I don't know, but I did not like what I heard.

The O line will be much better than it was last year, particularly in pass protection. In addition, last year the Jets installed zone blocking, a scheme that the O line never did get any good at executing.

Having said that, Martin is VERY under rated as a blocking RB, very good at picking up the blitz, and can chip a player just enough to slow him down to buy time to get into his outlet pattern. This will help him keep his playing time up, if his knee is healthy.

Considering his injury, and how bad that O line was Martin's 2005 season was another near miracle, like 2004 was. I think it is a mistake to factor his age into where he should be ranked. Compared to other factors, it's not a significant concern to me.

Factors that favor Martin are a return to man blocking on the O line, a much improved O line, better stability at the QB position, improved play calling, a switch to the SD offensive scheme, faster more athletic linemen that can pull and get outside, where Martin is most effective and I have to think he'll get some bench time and be fresher for the 4th quarter. While the Jets will take some time to turn things around, I doubt they will suffer the number of blowouts they endured last year. That may result in fewer running plays in the 1st half, but will be more than offset by a significant increase in running plays in the second half. Martin remains the best pass blocking RB on the roster.

Negative factors for Martin are a crowded backfield with plenty of youth vying for playing time in Blaylock, Washington, Houston and possibly Moore. With 2, possibly three new starters on the O line including one or two rookies, the O line may take some time to gel. I ordinarily would count a new CS, OC and scheme as a negative, but getting rid of Edwards MORE than offsets any negative that brings. How bad was that knee injury, and how might it affect his speed and cutting ability? Lastly...... Martin's age.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Re: The Offensive Line

2004: LT: Jason Fabini LG: Pete Kendall C: Kevin Mawae RG: Brandon Moore RT: Kareem McKenzie TE: Anthony Becht2005: LT: Adrian Jones LG: Jon. Goodwin C: Pete Kendall RG: Brandon Moore RT: Scott Gragg TE: Doug JolleyThe Jets offensive line turned over significantly from 2004 to 2005, with only Brandon Moore staying at the same position. Anthony Becht was another huge loss to the offensive line: he couldn't catch a cold, but he's an excellent run blocker. Martin was excellent in 2004, although the offensive line was one of the top 3 in the league and made him look better than he was. In 2005 Martin looked terrible, although the offensive line was abysmal and made him look much worse than he was.

Not only did that O line make Martin look worse, so did the play calling. Bollinger was getting sacked on THREE STEP DROPS! That poor kid gets WAY too much blame for last year's debacle, which should all be on Herm Edwards. Because the Jets had no depth whatsoever on the O line, when Mawae got hurt, the whole line got shuffled. Kendall moved from LG to C.... and was abysmally lost there. He had to make the blocking assignments play call, but didn't even know who HE was supposed to block! Kendall was the reason Bollinger was getting hit immediately. Every Jets fan knew that Fabini could not pass block anymore, but Edwards went into the season with Fabini starting at LT. Finally, Fabini was demoted to RT, and Jones went to LT. Gragg filled in at LG.

It was a mess, and it lays at Edwards' feet. The man completely ignored the O line, and he gets off scott free.... pitiful.

Just to bury Edwards some more, despite his bogus claims that HE would NEVER jepordize a player by making him (or allowing him) to play injured.... he did just that with Martin last year. He eventually admitted he never should have kept sending Martin out there.... the knee injury was NOT a minor one. Edwards flatly stated he should have put Martin on the bench for at least two weeks.... which is probably an understaement. Lets not forget Edwards sent Pennington BACK INTO the game he tore his shoulder up in last year. Put him BACK IN!

Mangini's comments on Martin this spring were not encouraging. He talked about how he is rehabbing, and they would keep an eye on it.... very vague, and no sort of positive spin at all. Coach speak? I don't know, but I did not like what I heard.

The O line will be much better than it was last year, particularly in pass protection. In addition, last year the Jets installed zone blocking, a scheme that the O line never did get any good at executing.

Having said that, Martin is VERY under rated as a blocking RB, very good at picking up the blitz, and can chip a player just enough to slow him down to buy time to get into his outlet pattern. This will help him keep his playing time up, if his knee is healthy.

Considering his injury, and how bad that O line was Martin's 2005 season was another near miracle, like 2004 was. I think it is a mistake to factor his age into where he should be ranked. Compared to other factors, it's not a significant concern to me.

Factors that favor Martin are a return to man blocking on the O line, a much improved O line, better stability at the QB position, improved play calling, a switch to the SD offensive scheme, faster more athletic linemen that can pull and get outside, where Martin is most effective and I have to think he'll get some bench time and be fresher for the 4th quarter. While the Jets will take some time to turn things around, I doubt they will suffer the number of blowouts they endured last year. That may result in fewer running plays in the 1st half, but will be more than offset by a significant increase in running plays in the second half. Martin remains the best pass blocking RB on the roster.

Negative factors for Martin are a crowded backfield with plenty of youth vying for playing time in Blaylock, Washington, Houston and possibly Moore. With 2, possibly three new starters on the O line including one or two rookies, the O line may take some time to gel. I ordinarily would count a new CS, OC and scheme as a negative, but getting rid of Edwards MORE than offsets any negative that brings. How bad was that knee injury, and how might it affect his speed and cutting ability? Lastly...... Martin's age.

The Jets also ranked 2nd to last in plays run last year (the 49ers were a distant last). The number of plays a team runs is generally around 1,000, and there's little correlation between plays run and team success. It makes sense to project most teams at around 1000 plays, meaning you'll want to give the Jets another 100 or so plays, and Martin another 30 carries.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I think Martin = value this year.

Look at it this way, folks, the guy is a workhorse, always has been. if he's 100% for week 1 and stays healthy throughout the season, he's going to get 280-320 carries, minimum. If you're predicting injury for him, so be it, but if you're projecting him for 16 games, even at, say, a 3.5 ypc, I still get him to 1,000 yards. The Jets offense almost HAS to be better than last year, and Martin is a good TD scoring back traditionally.

294 carries 1,107 yards 8 TD

Good for somewhere around RB19-26. Either a weak RB2 or good RB3.

 

[Jason Wood]

Great stuff guys

This thread was off the front page with nary a comment and now has turned into something substantive to you all!

 

[The Ref]

This is why I come here. I would never imagine thinking of Martin as someone to target this year, but after reading this I can see him as a RB#3 with value.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

This is why I come here. I would never imagine thinking of Martin as someone to target this year, but after reading this I can see him as a RB#3 with value.

His ADP is the middle of round 6 right now. He could represent great value at that spot if he plays all the preseason games and the injury looks like it's completely behind him, especially if he doesn't get a lot of carries and light it up in those games and stays under the radar.

 

[bostonfred]

Not to break up the lovefest here, but I really don't like the idea of targetting an older running back who is not only coming off a knee injury, but playing for a new coach who comes from a system where they let the best player play. While Edwards was loyal to his players, gave the majority of carries to Martin when he played, and had an interest in keeping Martin's 1000 yard game streak alive last year, Mangini has no reason to be loyal to Martin, comes from a system with a lot of offensive and defensive substitutions, and the streak is over.

I'm not comfortable with the rest of the offense, either. Granted, last year's offense was terrible, so it's hard for them to get worse. But Pennington's return is far from a certainty, and Ramsey has done little to show he's a top quarterback if Pennington goes down. Plus, he's also an injury risk. And while they drafted two good offensive linemen, they'll be starting a rookie left tackle, they lost one of the best centers in the league, they still don't have a quality blocking fullback or tight end, and they'll be playing for a young, rookie, defensive minded head coach.

I'm not tremendously high on Houston (or Blaylock, or Washington...). I don't know how good he really is. But the fact that there are backs there who could step in, and that there is an open competition for the starting position, scares me.

To me, the real value of Martin is this:

- There's a chance that he won't be healthy, after rehabbing from a knee surgery.

- There's a good chance that he won't start.

- Even if Martin starts, there's a good chance he will share a lot of carries

- Even if he starts and gets a significant number of carries, there's a good chance he won't do well with them

- Even if he does well with them, there's a good chance he'll break down late in the season

- Even if you get his handcuff, you won't know for sure which one to get and we don't know how good he is

Put that together and there's a reason Martin is being drafted late. I think the better value play in NY is to take Houston late and hope you hit the lottery - even if he doesn't start the season, he's got some value as a backup RB, and may get a good number of carries. He's also got good trade value to the Martin owner in the event that Martin starts out the season strong - even though I personally wouldn't want to use two or more roster spots on the Jets running game, they probably will.

 

[Team Legacy]

Not to break up the lovefest here, but I really don't like the idea of targetting an older running back who is not only coming off a knee injury, but playing for a new coach who comes from a system where they let the best player play.  While Edwards was loyal to his players, gave the majority of carries to Martin when he played, and had an interest in keeping Martin's 1000 yard game streak alive last year, Mangini has no reason to be loyal to Martin, comes from a system with a lot of offensive and defensive substitutions, and the streak is over. 

I'm not comfortable with the rest of the offense, either.  Granted, last year's offense was terrible, so it's hard for them to get worse.  But Pennington's return is far from a certainty, and Ramsey has done little to show he's a top quarterback if Pennington goes down.  Plus, he's also an injury risk.  And while they drafted two good offensive linemen, they'll be starting a rookie left tackle, they lost one of the best centers in the league, they still don't have a quality blocking fullback or tight end, and they'll be playing for a young, rookie, defensive minded head coach.

I'm not tremendously high on Houston (or Blaylock, or Washington...).  I don't know how good he really is.  But the fact that there are backs there who could step in, and that there is an open competition for the starting position, scares me. 

To me, the real value of Martin is this:

- There's a chance that he won't be healthy, after rehabbing from a knee surgery. 

- There's a good chance that he won't start. 

- Even if Martin starts, there's a good chance he will share a lot of carries

- Even if he starts and gets a significant number of carries, there's a good chance he won't do well with them

- Even if he does well with them, there's a good chance he'll break down late in the season

- Even if you get his handcuff, you won't know for sure which one to get and we don't know how good he is

Put that together and there's a reason Martin is being drafted late.  I think the better value play in NY is to take Houston late and hope you hit the lottery - even if he doesn't start the season, he's got some value as a backup RB, and may get a good number of carries.  He's also got good trade value to the Martin owner in the event that Martin starts out the season strong - even though I personally wouldn't want to use two or more roster spots on the Jets running game, they probably will.

Who says there's a good chance that he won't start? I haven't heard that one. I fully expect him to start, no ifs ands or buts. Only a completely DIFFERENT injury would keep him from starting, which is possible considering his age, but not by any means a "good chance". My second argument would be that they didn't spend the high pick to replace him as many thought they would. That to me, is a vote of confidence in Martin's ability.

From the link below:

Martin was the only Jet to attend the news conference at which Eric Mangini was introduced as coach last month.

"I have always had the highest regard for him both as an individual and as one of the fiercest and most determined athletes in the game," said Mangini, adding he considered him an important team leader.

Reported Earlier

From the link below:

Eric Mangini released a vague statement, saying he was pleased with the turnout and the energy level and noting that "our entire team participated." That included running back Curtis Martin, 33, who underwent knee surgery last December. Martin is expected to be ready for training camp in late July.

Ready for camp in July

 

[David Yudkin]

Not to break up the lovefest here, but I really don't like the idea of targetting an older running back who is not only coming off a knee injury, but playing for a new coach who comes from a system where they let the best player play. While Edwards was loyal to his players, gave the majority of carries to Martin when he played, and had an interest in keeping Martin's 1000 yard game streak alive last year, Mangini has no reason to be loyal to Martin, comes from a system with a lot of offensive and defensive substitutions, and the streak is over.

I'm not comfortable with the rest of the offense, either. Granted, last year's offense was terrible, so it's hard for them to get worse. But Pennington's return is far from a certainty, and Ramsey has done little to show he's a top quarterback if Pennington goes down. Plus, he's also an injury risk. And while they drafted two good offensive linemen, they'll be starting a rookie left tackle, they lost one of the best centers in the league, they still don't have a quality blocking fullback or tight end, and they'll be playing for a young, rookie, defensive minded head coach.

I'm not tremendously high on Houston (or Blaylock, or Washington...). I don't know how good he really is. But the fact that there are backs there who could step in, and that there is an open competition for the starting position, scares me.

To me, the real value of Martin is this:

- There's a chance that he won't be healthy, after rehabbing from a knee surgery.

- There's a good chance that he won't start.

- Even if Martin starts, there's a good chance he will share a lot of carries

- Even if he starts and gets a significant number of carries, there's a good chance he won't do well with them

- Even if he does well with them, there's a good chance he'll break down late in the season

- Even if you get his handcuff, you won't know for sure which one to get and we don't know how good he is

Put that together and there's a reason Martin is being drafted late. I think the better value play in NY is to take Houston late and hope you hit the lottery - even if he doesn't start the season, he's got some value as a backup RB, and may get a good number of carries. He's also got good trade value to the Martin owner in the event that Martin starts out the season strong - even though I personally wouldn't want to use two or more roster spots on the Jets running game, they probably will.

Obviously nothing is etched in stone, but I have not seen anything to suggest that Martin will not be the starter. According to the Blogger, Martin is expected to be ready in July. The only talk about Martin this off-season was a mention of him perhaps taking a reduced role, but that was entirely speculative by the writer and had nothing official from the team.As for who the #2 guy is, that also seems to be in question, as some think it will be Houston, others Blaylock, and a couple of people think Washington has a shot. The best option is probably to stay away from anyone lining up in the Jets's backfield, as it's too clouded and probably not going to be all that productive anyway. If you can get Houston or Blaylock very late and have the roster space, either one might pay dividends for a nominal investment.

 

[bostonfred]

My second argument would be that they didn't spend the high pick to replace him as many thought they would. That to me, is a vote of confidence in Martin's ability.

From the link below:

Martin was the only Jet to attend the news conference at which Eric Mangini was introduced as coach last month.

"I have always had the highest regard for him both as an individual and as one of the fiercest and most determined athletes in the game," said Mangini, adding he considered him an important team leader.

Reported Earlier

1) He said that while announcing that he'd restructured Martin's contract. 2) Belichick considered Troy Brown an important team leader, and still sings his praises.

From the link below:

Eric Mangini released a vague statement, saying he was pleased with the turnout and the energy level and noting that "our entire team participated." That included running back Curtis Martin, 33, who underwent knee surgery last December. Martin is expected to be ready for training camp in late July.

Ready for camp in July

There's a huge difference between being ready to attend training camp in late July, and Martin's normal preparation. While Martin participated in spring ball, there's no reason to think that means he was running at full speed or cutting. He's coming off his second knee surgery in two years, and it's more extensive than the last one.

 

[bostonfred]

Obviously nothing is etched in stone, but I have not seen anything to suggest that Martin will not be the starter. According to the Blogger, Martin is expected to be ready in July. The only talk about Martin this off-season was a mention of him perhaps taking a reduced role, but that was entirely speculative by the writer and had nothing official from the team.

That's true. I swear I read that Mangini was opening it up, but I can't find anything to support it. The only link I found on the blogger was this: Rich Cimini NY Daily News - it's believed the Jets would like to have him back in a reduced role. Mea Culpa. Unfortunately, as we're already seeing, Mangini comes from the Belichick camp of not telling anyone who's starting where and who's healthy. That's another knock against Martin if you have to submit lineups each week.

As for who the #2 guy is, that also seems to be in question, as some think it will be Houston, others Blaylock, and a couple of people think Washington has a shot. The best option is probably to stay away from anyone lining up in the Jets's backfield, as it's too clouded and probably not going to be all that productive anyway. If you can get Houston or Blaylock very late and have the roster space, either one might pay dividends for a nominal investment.

I agree. I think Houston is the most likely to take that role, since he's not coming off injury, and he's currently listed as #2 at Ourlads. But you're right that it's not certain. So while I would be willing to take a flier on him, I would not be comfortable taking Martin and Houston and feeling like I had the NYJ RB locked up.

 

[Tau837]

To me, the real value of Martin is this: - There's a chance that he won't be healthy, after rehabbing from a knee surgery.

True, though all indications to date are positive, as he expected to be ready for training camp.

- There's a good chance that he won't start.

This appears to be nothing but speculation on your part. If not, let's see a link. Otherwise, I'll disregard this item.

- Even if Martin starts, there's a good chance he will share a lot of carries

Agreed.

- Even if he starts and gets a significant number of carries, there's a good chance he won't do well with them

I suppose this depends upon one's definition of doing well. Are we talking about ypc here, scoring TDs? Regardless, I think saying there is a "good chance" of this is probably overstating it.

- Even if he does well with them, there's a good chance he'll break down late in the season

"Good chance" is definitely overstating this. He has been as durable as they come throughout his career until last season. Unless you are expecting last season's injury to linger, what is the basis for projecting another injury?

- Even if you get his handcuff, you won't know for sure which one to get and we don't know how good he is

I don't think anyone is planning on taking him as a RB1 or RB2. Do you make a habit of handcuffing your RB3? I'd consider taking Martin as my RB3 and whatever other RB4 that presented value within my draft. Maybe if I had Martin it would make me more inclined to take a later flier on Houston (or another back if another one emerges as the backup in preseason).

 

[bostonfred]

To me, the real value of Martin is this:

- There's a chance that he won't be healthy, after rehabbing from a knee surgery.

True, though all indications to date are positive, as he expected to be ready for training camp.

He's a 33 year old running back coming off his second knee injury in two years, and likely unable to do his regular offseason conditioning. Being ready for training camp is one thing; being in shape to play is another.

- Even if he starts and gets a significant number of carries, there's a good chance he won't do well with them

I suppose this depends upon one's definition of doing well. Are we talking about ypc here, scoring TDs? Regardless, I think saying there is a "good chance" of this is probably overstating it.

His receptions have declined for six straight years, his YPC was 3.3, the offense around him has all the problems I described above, and even with his 14 TD season two years ago, he still averages 7 TDs a year over the last four years. Even if Martin plays at the peak of his 33 year old ability, he's still got a lot of hurdles to overcome to give you any kind of production.

- Even if he does well with them, there's a good chance he'll break down late in the season

"Good chance" is definitely overstating this. He has been as durable as they come throughout his career until last season. Unless you are expecting last season's injury to linger, what is the basis for projecting another injury?

He's a 33 year old running back who had his second knee surgery in two years, and his third leg injury in three years. His second knee injury was worse than the first and will keep him out until late July. While Herman Edwards gave him plenty of carries even while he fought through knee and ankle injuries, his new coach may not, which is important, because while he's played 16 games in two of the last three seasons, he has not had an injury free season since he turned 30.

- Even if you get his handcuff, you won't know for sure which one to get and we don't know how good he is

I don't think anyone is planning on taking him as a RB1 or RB2. Do you make a habit of handcuffing your RB3? I'd consider taking Martin as my RB3 and whatever other RB4 that presented value within my draft. Maybe if I had Martin it would make me more inclined to take a later flier on Houston (or another back if another one emerges as the backup in preseason).

Actually, yes, I usually like my RB3 to be a team RB, where I can take both guys of a RBBC, or something similar. Not always, but it certainly increases the value of each to me. I'm not a huge fan of taking Martin as my RB3. Between his age, injury, competition, lack of a clear cut backup, new coach, quarterback issues, and the youth on the Jets offensive line, I think he's going to be hard pressed to ever succeed again. It's too bad - I've been a big Martin fan since his days in New England - but I think it's over.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

You make some really good points, BF. My take is based solely on the fact that I am not at all impressed with what is behind him, and I fully belive that Mangini, given his familiarity with Martin, will give him every chance to succeed before reducing his role. If he doesn't get it done on the field, then all bets are off, but if Martin is 100% by the start of the season (or close to it, and I believe his work ethic is such that he will be) that he'll be their most effective back come week 1.

I'm not advocating drafting him in the first 4-5 rounds, but where his ADP currently stands, I think the reward is higher than the risk.

 

[bostonfred]

You make some really good points, BF. My take is based solely on the fact that I am not at all impressed with what is behind him, and I fully belive that Mangini, given his familiarity with Martin, will give him every chance to succeed before reducing his role. If he doesn't get it done on the field, then all bets are off, but if Martin is 100% by the start of the season (or close to it, and I believe his work ethic is such that he will be) that he'll be their most effective back come week 1.

100% of what? 100% healthy, or in 100% of the shape he normally gets himself into? Normally Martin comes into training camp in great shape after working hard all offseason. This year, he'll come into training camp just as he's able to run again. That's a huge difference. Add that to the fact that he's 33, and has had leg injuries three straight years, and it begs the question, will his shape contribute to an injury proneness that didn't show itself when he was under 30? I'm not saying it's impossible for him to put up RB3 numbers. In fact, he could still put up starter quality numbers. I'm just saying that the deck is stacked pretty hard against him.

 

[cscmtp]

I took him in the 10th round of a new dynasty league. VALUE.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

You make some really good points, BF.  My take is based solely on the fact that I am not at all impressed with what is behind him, and I fully belive that Mangini, given his familiarity with Martin, will give him every chance to succeed before reducing his role.  If he doesn't get it done on the field, then all bets are off, but if Martin is 100% by the start of the season (or close to it, and I believe his work ethic is such that he will be) that he'll be their most effective back come week 1.

100% of what? 100% healthy, or in 100% of the shape he normally gets himself into? Normally Martin comes into training camp in great shape after working hard all offseason. This year, he'll come into training camp just as he's able to run again. That's a huge difference. Add that to the fact that he's 33, and has had leg injuries three straight years, and it begs the question, will his shape contribute to an injury proneness that didn't show itself when he was under 30? I'm not saying it's impossible for him to put up RB3 numbers. In fact, he could still put up starter quality numbers. I'm just saying that the deck is stacked pretty hard against him.

100% healthy. If he's already running drills, I am confident he'll be in game shape by the start of the season, if not soon after. Your caveats are well-taken, though - he's just one of those guys that's always been so reliable, I am prone to take a shot on him in round 6-7. If anyone can pull it together and have a bounceback year at this age, he's the guy.

 

[Rovers]

You make some really good points, BF.  My take is based solely on the fact that I am not at all impressed with what is behind him, and I fully belive that Mangini, given his familiarity with Martin, will give him every chance to succeed before reducing his role.  If he doesn't get it done on the field, then all bets are off, but if Martin is 100% by the start of the season (or close to it, and I believe his work ethic is such that he will be) that he'll be their most effective back come week 1.

100% of what? 100% healthy, or in 100% of the shape he normally gets himself into? Normally Martin comes into training camp in great shape after working hard all offseason. This year, he'll come into training camp just as he's able to run again. That's a huge difference. Add that to the fact that he's 33, and has had leg injuries three straight years, and it begs the question, will his shape contribute to an injury proneness that didn't show itself when he was under 30? I'm not saying it's impossible for him to put up RB3 numbers. In fact, he could still put up starter quality numbers. I'm just saying that the deck is stacked pretty hard against him.

All RB's get dinged up every year, but I definitely would not say Martin has had leg injuries for three years in a row at all. In 2002 he played through a high ankle sprain, and his numbers reflected that. In 2003 and 2004 he remained as healthy as any feature RB in the NFL does. His production also reflected that as well. Last year, yes, he was definitely injured and should have been held out of at least several games, which he wasn't.... not until he could barely walk at the end of the season did Edwards put him on the bench. To say :Add that to the fact that he's 33, and has had leg injuries three straight years, and it begs the question, will his shape contribute to an injury proneness that didn't show itself when he was under 30?

... is not a fair, or even accurate assessment. Martin is NOT an injury prone RB historically.... in fact, he's near "iron man" in that regard.

I do agree that there could be some concren that he has not been able to follow his rather amazing off season fitness regimen, and how that might affect his durability this year, but to use the words injury prone and Martin in the same sentence.... well, that's just flat out without basis in hard fact.

 

[BigRed]

GB picking him up cheap in my auction league as a RB3. I hope.

 

[bostonfred]

You make some really good points, BF.  My take is based solely on the fact that I am not at all impressed with what is behind him, and I fully belive that Mangini, given his familiarity with Martin, will give him every chance to succeed before reducing his role.  If he doesn't get it done on the field, then all bets are off, but if Martin is 100% by the start of the season (or close to it, and I believe his work ethic is such that he will be) that he'll be their most effective back come week 1.

100% of what? 100% healthy, or in 100% of the shape he normally gets himself into? Normally Martin comes into training camp in great shape after working hard all offseason. This year, he'll come into training camp just as he's able to run again. That's a huge difference. Add that to the fact that he's 33, and has had leg injuries three straight years, and it begs the question, will his shape contribute to an injury proneness that didn't show itself when he was under 30? I'm not saying it's impossible for him to put up RB3 numbers. In fact, he could still put up starter quality numbers. I'm just saying that the deck is stacked pretty hard against him.

All RB's get dinged up every year, but I definitely would not say Martin has had leg injuries for three years in a row at all. In 2002 he played through a high ankle sprain, and his numbers reflected that. In 2003 and 2004 he remained as healthy as any feature RB in the NFL does. His production also reflected that as well. Last year, yes, he was definitely injured and should have been held out of at least several games, which he wasn't.... not until he could barely walk at the end of the season did Edwards put him on the bench. To say :Add that to the fact that he's 33, and has had leg injuries three straight years, and it begs the question, will his shape contribute to an injury proneness that didn't show itself when he was under 30?

... is not a fair, or even accurate assessment. Martin is NOT an injury prone RB historically.... in fact, he's near "iron man" in that regard.

I do agree that there could be some concren that he has not been able to follow his rather amazing off season fitness regimen, and how that might affect his durability this year, but to use the words injury prone and Martin in the same sentence.... well, that's just flat out without basis in hard fact.

I disagree. Martin's injuries have been hidden by the fact that he had a coach that would keep playing him when he was hurt. But he played badly on that high ankle sprain, then came back the next year, had a great season in 2004 until his knee injury, and then had surgery. In 2005, coming back from knee surgery and on a poor offense, he put up the worst numbers of his career. Then he had a worse injury, looks to be on a bad offense again, and is even older. I know he has a long trend of staying healthy, but there's a lot more trends working against him.

 

[56]

A couple of things to keep in mind regarding Martin:

His surgery was to remove bone chips and some cartilage damage that caused him discomfort. He had no structual or ligament damage, and that is significant with respect to his rehab this offseason. As a matter of fact, Martin was quoted in January as saying that he would have his "best offseason yet". The comments were made after his surgery.

The injury took place week 2, not in December. Martin was able to play through the injury, but was essentialy shut down by the Jets after he reached the 14,000 yard rushing milestone. He played in 1 game after that, a game in which the Jets O line looked inept. At that point there was no reason for Martin to keep playing. He likely wanted to so he could get 1000 yards for the season, but given the disaster the Jets had become, there was little chance of that happeneing.

 

[FootballFreakX]

This is why I love fantasy football. The low expectations make it easier for me to steal him in the 5th or even 6th round. Not a top 20 RB? Let's revist this in January when I have C-Mart and my RB2 and I'm winning your league.

1250 rushing yards 8 TDs, 350 receiving yards 2 TDs

 

[Rovers]

You make some really good points, BF.  My take is based solely on the fact that I am not at all impressed with what is behind him, and I fully belive that Mangini, given his familiarity with Martin, will give him every chance to succeed before reducing his role.  If he doesn't get it done on the field, then all bets are off, but if Martin is 100% by the start of the season (or close to it, and I believe his work ethic is such that he will be) that he'll be their most effective back come week 1.

100% of what? 100% healthy, or in 100% of the shape he normally gets himself into? Normally Martin comes into training camp in great shape after working hard all offseason. This year, he'll come into training camp just as he's able to run again. That's a huge difference. Add that to the fact that he's 33, and has had leg injuries three straight years, and it begs the question, will his shape contribute to an injury proneness that didn't show itself when he was under 30? I'm not saying it's impossible for him to put up RB3 numbers. In fact, he could still put up starter quality numbers. I'm just saying that the deck is stacked pretty hard against him.

All RB's get dinged up every year, but I definitely would not say Martin has had leg injuries for three years in a row at all. In 2002 he played through a high ankle sprain, and his numbers reflected that. In 2003 and 2004 he remained as healthy as any feature RB in the NFL does. His production also reflected that as well. Last year, yes, he was definitely injured and should have been held out of at least several games, which he wasn't.... not until he could barely walk at the end of the season did Edwards put him on the bench. To say :Add that to the fact that he's 33, and has had leg injuries three straight years, and it begs the question, will his shape contribute to an injury proneness that didn't show itself when he was under 30?

... is not a fair, or even accurate assessment. Martin is NOT an injury prone RB historically.... in fact, he's near "iron man" in that regard.

I do agree that there could be some concren that he has not been able to follow his rather amazing off season fitness regimen, and how that might affect his durability this year, but to use the words injury prone and Martin in the same sentence.... well, that's just flat out without basis in hard fact.

I disagree. Martin's injuries have been hidden by the fact that he had a coach that would keep playing him when he was hurt. But he played badly on that high ankle sprain, then came back the next year, had a great season in 2004 until his knee injury, and then had surgery. In 2005, coming back from knee surgery and on a poor offense, he put up the worst numbers of his career. Then he had a worse injury, looks to be on a bad offense again, and is even older. I know he has a long trend of staying healthy, but there's a lot more trends working against him.

OK... your memory is a bit off.... the high ankle sprain was in 2002. He appeared on the injury list five times that year, four times due to the ankle sprain. That was only the second time in his career he didn't rush over 300 times. In 2003, he never appeared on the injury report, and aside from the normal wear and tear an NFL RB endures, he was healthy. In 2004, his knee began to get cranky, (and that was well into the season-11/24/2004) and appeared on the injury report once that year. His knee was stable, but he had some loose cartilage that was scpoed at the end of the season. He had 323 and 371 carries in 2003 and 2004 respectively. The Jets struggled to score in 2003, and Martin's numbers reflected that, especially in TD production, but Martin was healthy.

So, Martin has been free of major injuries for 2 of the last 3 years, and prior to the ankle sprain in 2002, you have to go back to 1998 to find a game he missed.

So, what you are saying is that Martin is always hurt but plays anyway? ALL NFL RB's are hurt... all the time. They take a beating week in and week out. Martin has been extraordinarilly durable, and has had very few serious injuries throughout his career. To call him injury prone is ridiculous. Period.

 

[wannabee]

You make some really good points, BF.  My take is based solely on the fact that I am not at all impressed with what is behind him, and I fully belive that Mangini, given his familiarity with Martin, will give him every chance to succeed before reducing his role.  If he doesn't get it done on the field, then all bets are off, but if Martin is 100% by the start of the season (or close to it, and I believe his work ethic is such that he will be) that he'll be their most effective back come week 1.

100% of what? 100% healthy, or in 100% of the shape he normally gets himself into? Normally Martin comes into training camp in great shape after working hard all offseason. This year, he'll come into training camp just as he's able to run again. That's a huge difference. Add that to the fact that he's 33, and has had leg injuries three straight years, and it begs the question, will his shape contribute to an injury proneness that didn't show itself when he was under 30? I'm not saying it's impossible for him to put up RB3 numbers. In fact, he could still put up starter quality numbers. I'm just saying that the deck is stacked pretty hard against him.

All RB's get dinged up every year, but I definitely would not say Martin has had leg injuries for three years in a row at all. In 2002 he played through a high ankle sprain, and his numbers reflected that. In 2003 and 2004 he remained as healthy as any feature RB in the NFL does. His production also reflected that as well. Last year, yes, he was definitely injured and should have been held out of at least several games, which he wasn't.... not until he could barely walk at the end of the season did Edwards put him on the bench. To say :Add that to the fact that he's 33, and has had leg injuries three straight years, and it begs the question, will his shape contribute to an injury proneness that didn't show itself when he was under 30?

... is not a fair, or even accurate assessment. Martin is NOT an injury prone RB historically.... in fact, he's near "iron man" in that regard.

I do agree that there could be some concren that he has not been able to follow his rather amazing off season fitness regimen, and how that might affect his durability this year, but to use the words injury prone and Martin in the same sentence.... well, that's just flat out without basis in hard fact.

I disagree. Martin's injuries have been hidden by the fact that he had a coach that would keep playing him when he was hurt. But he played badly on that high ankle sprain, then came back the next year, had a great season in 2004 until his knee injury, and then had surgery. In 2005, coming back from knee surgery and on a poor offense, he put up the worst numbers of his career. Then he had a worse injury, looks to be on a bad offense again, and is even older. I know he has a long trend of staying healthy, but there's a lot more trends working against him.

OK... your memory is a bit off.... the high ankle sprain was in 2002. He appeared on the injury list five times that year, four times due to the ankle sprain. That was only the second time in his career he didn't rush over 300 times. In 2003, he never appeared on the injury report, and aside from the normal wear and tear an NFL RB endures, he was healthy. In 2004, his knee began to get cranky, (and that was well into the season-11/24/2004) and appeared on the injury report once that year. His knee was stable, but he had some loose cartilage that was scpoed at the end of the season. He had 323 and 371 carries in 2003 and 2004 respectively. The Jets struggled to score in 2003, and Martin's numbers reflected that, especially in TD production, but Martin was healthy.

So, Martin has been free of major injuries for 2 of the last 3 years, and prior to the ankle sprain in 2002, you have to go back to 1998 to find a game he missed.

So, what you are saying is that Martin is always hurt but plays anyway? ALL NFL RB's are hurt... all the time. They take a beating week in and week out. Martin has been extraordinarilly durable, and has had very few serious injuries throughout his career. To call him injury prone is ridiculous. Period.

http://insidethestats.com/index.php?option...etail=1&id=1778

 

[Rovers]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/football/...4/injuries.html

 

[Bri]

I think they want Martin to be the mentor to another back and it's "open competition" for those guys. IF they stink, Martin's the fallback plan.

RIP Curtis' career

 

[Rovers]

I think they want Martin to be the mentor to another back and it's "open competition" for those guys. IF they stink, Martin's the fallback plan.

RIP Curtis' career

I would disagree.... I think Martin will get the bulk of the work, but they will use the other RB's to see what they have in them. I think the outcome of that will be that the Jets draft an RB in the first round in 2007, unless one of the other RB's surprise. Martin may go to that "coach's role" in 2007, but not this year, unless his health and age betray him. I also look for the Jets to go after a WR early in next year's draft. This new regime is on a three year plan, rare in today's NFL. This year, they fixed the cap, got the O line built for the future, drafted a potential future QB and will look to see where they need the most help after 2006. My guess is that means an RB, a WR and a NT next year through some combination of FA and the draft.

 

[Bri]

I think they want Martin to be the mentor to another back and it's "open competition" for those guys. IF they stink, Martin's the fallback plan.

RIP Curtis' career

I would disagree.... I think Martin will get the bulk of the work, but they will use the other RB's to see what they have in them. I think the outcome of that will be that the Jets draft an RB in the first round in 2007, unless one of the other RB's surprise. Martin may go to that "coach's role" in 2007, but not this year, unless his health and age betray him. I also look for the Jets to go after a WR early in next year's draft. This new regime is on a three year plan, rare in today's NFL. This year, they fixed the cap, got the O line built for the future, drafted a potential future QB and will look to see where they need the most help after 2006. My guess is that means an RB, a WR and a NT next year through some combination of FA and the draft.

for the sake of debate-why did they sign Blaylock then?