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Player Spotlight: Daunte Culpepper (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2005 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Ultimately, each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Daunte Culpepper, QB, Minnesota Vikings

Player Page Link: Daunte Culpepper Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoints from two Footballguys Staff Members

Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
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mcjc4

Footballguy
I think we will see a slip in Daunte's numbers this year, but not for the obivious reason of the loss of Moss. I believe with the addition of Smoot, Sharper,Williams and Cowart this defense will allow the Vikings the opportunity to grind out games on the ground in the 4th quarter. On paper, this is the best defense daunte has every had working with him since he has been there. He may run more in the red zone, but 225-250 yards in the 2nd half may not be needed.

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
Culpepper is a fantasy monster, since he can do it with his arm and with his legs. He has also developed into a good NFL QB....he significantly reduced his INTs and turnovers from previous seasons. Not having Randy Moss will bring Culpepper's numbers down from last year. Not sure if Burleson can step up to the #1 WR role. And Culpepper is somewhat of an injury risk. Still should have a very good year, but don't expect last year's stats.3900 yds Passing, 27 TDs, 14 Ints550 yds rushing, 6 TDsRank - QB3

 
I don't think Daunte Caulpepper hits 4,000 yards passing for the rest of his career as losing Moss has to mean something. He'll run more, throw more interceptions and unfotunately this could lead to injuries if he gets reckless. He's still a talented QB who has some decent options to throw too but not having Moss in my mind will effect the passing game this year.3650 yards and 25 td's and 19 int's340 rushing and 5 td's rushing

 

radballs.

Footballguy
I don't think Daunte Caulpepper hits 4,000 yards passing for the rest of his career as losing Moss has to mean something. He'll run more, throw more interceptions and unfotunately this could lead to injuries if he gets reckless. He's still a talented QB who has some decent options to throw too but not having Moss in my mind will effect the passing game this year.

3650 yards and 25 td's and 19 int's

340 rushing and 5 td's rushing
Wow cowboy, you really do attribute most of his success to Moss. I understand how the passing yardage could be down, but you stated that his rushing yardage will be up but your projection is for his lowest rushing total ever. Also, even if his numbers take a dip, I think it's a little drastic to see Culpepper's TD/INT ratio to drop from 3.55 last year to 1.32 given your projections.
 

jcjets

Footballguy
Culpepper will be a top 5 QB because of his rushing stats. Yes Moss is now a Radier, but lets not overlook a new Coordinator taking over the Viking offense as well. When Moss was hurt last year the game plan did not change and Burleson stepped in for Moss at that position. The new playbook wont have as many 'Moss' plays for the offense to run. The offense will be toned down and therefore Culpeppers numbers wont be as big.Passing:3665yards with 24 TDsRushing:85-463-5

 
I don't think Daunte Caulpepper hits 4,000 yards passing for the rest of his career as losing Moss has to mean something.  He'll run more, throw more interceptions and unfotunately this could lead to injuries if he gets reckless.  He's still a talented QB who has some decent options to throw too but not having Moss in my mind will effect the passing game this year.

3650 yards and 25 td's and 19 int's

340 rushing and 5 td's rushing
Wow cowboy, you really do attribute most of his success to Moss. I understand how the passing yardage could be down, but you stated that his rushing yardage will be up but your projection is for his lowest rushing total ever. Also, even if his numbers take a dip, I think it's a little drastic to see Culpepper's TD/INT ratio to drop from 3.55 last year to 1.32 given your projections.
Good points and I thought someone might bring it up since I didn't mention it but my feeling is that he's going to be frustrated at times this season. This will lead to him scrambling more out of the pocket or waiting too long to throw. This leads to more hits and injury. I know it's hard to predict injury and project that into your overall data......but I think per game this season Culpepper will run well but will not be playing 16 games. If he does play, you're entirely correct and his numbers in both passing and rushing will be higher than my projections.You're right though Rad, I think losing Moss will effect the entire offense. I mean, how can you lose one of the greatest receivers ever and expect to not miss a beat. I think that's pretty unrealistic and am figuring that into my projections.

Basically, I'm staying away from Caulpepper. It will baffle my mind if he has a career year with the greatest receiver in the game leaving their offense.

 

Chase Stuart

Footballguy
Quarter by quarter production for Culpepper in 2004:1st quarter - 68.5 FPs (16%)2nd quarter - 153.3 FPs (35%)3rd quarter - 85.35 FPs (20%)4th quarter - 118.5 FPs (27%)OT - 8.35 FPs (2%)Total - 434 FPs (100%)

 
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Chase Stuart

Footballguy
I mean, how can you lose one of the greatest receivers ever and expect to not miss a beat. I think that's pretty unrealistic and am figuring that into my projections.
Brett Favre and Steve Young did it.
 

kylechoffman

Footballguy
I don't think Daunte Caulpepper hits 4,000 yards passing for the rest of his career as losing Moss has to mean something. He'll run more, throw more interceptions and unfotunately this could lead to injuries if he gets reckless. He's still a talented QB who has some decent options to throw too but not having Moss in my mind will effect the passing game this year.

3650 yards and 25 td's and 19 int's

340 rushing and 5 td's rushing
Wow cowboy, you really do attribute most of his success to Moss. I understand how the passing yardage could be down, but you stated that his rushing yardage will be up but your projection is for his lowest rushing total ever. Also, even if his numbers take a dip, I think it's a little drastic to see Culpepper's TD/INT ratio to drop from 3.55 last year to 1.32 given your projections.
Good points and I thought someone might bring it up since I didn't mention it but my feeling is that he's going to be frustrated at times this season. This will lead to him scrambling more out of the pocket or waiting too long to throw. This leads to more hits and injury. I know it's hard to predict injury and project that into your overall data......but I think per game this season Culpepper will run well but will not be playing 16 games. If he does play, you're entirely correct and his numbers in both passing and rushing will be higher than my projections.You're right though Rad, I think losing Moss will effect the entire offense. I mean, how can you lose one of the greatest receivers ever and expect to not miss a beat. I think that's pretty unrealistic and am figuring that into my projections.

Basically, I'm staying away from Caulpepper. It will baffle my mind if he has a career year with the greatest receiver in the game leaving their offense.
He has been frustrated during any game they are losing, especially with Moss acting the way he did.
 
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radballs.

Footballguy
I mean, how can you lose one of the greatest receivers ever and expect to not miss a beat.  I think that's pretty unrealistic and am figuring that into my projections.
Brett Favre and Steve Young did it.
Was Sharpe one of the greatest receivers ever?
 

MarshallRob

Footballguy
I mean, how can you lose one of the greatest receivers ever and expect to not miss a beat.  I think that's pretty unrealistic and am figuring that into my projections.
Brett Favre and Steve Young did it.
Was Sharpe one of the greatest receivers ever?
If you measure greatness by VBD and only look at receivers after 1970, then he was.
 

jwvdcw

Footballguy
He will struggle mightily. I'd definitely take him in teh 8th round though, as he represents good value there.

 

David Yudkin

Footballguy
Since I have no life, I looked up how all QBs with 35+ TD passes have done in Year X+1 . . .Peyton Manning, 2004, 49/???Dan Marino, 1984, 48/30Dan Marino, 1986, 44/35* (adjusted for strike)Kurt Warner, 1999, 41/21 (missed 5 games)Daunte Culpepper, 2004, 39/???Brett Favre, 1996, 39/35Kurt Warner, 2001, 36/3 (missed 9+ games)Brett Favre, 1995, 38/39Brett Fave, 1997, 35/31Steve Beuerlein, 1999, 36/19George Blanda, 1961, 36/27 (had 42 interceptions in 1962)YA Tittle, 1963, 36/10Steve Young, 1998, 36/3 (missed 13 games)Steve Young, 1994, 35/20 (missed 5 games)That's it . . . 14 QBs. It's a pretty safe bet to say CPep will do worse than last year.

 

Family Matters

Footballguy
Since I have no life, I looked up how all QBs with 35+ TD passes have done in Year X+1 . . .

Peyton Manning, 2004, 49/???

Dan Marino, 1984, 48/30

Dan Marino, 1986, 44/35* (adjusted for strike)

Kurt Warner, 1999, 41/21 (missed 5 games)

Daunte Culpepper, 2004, 39/???

Brett Favre, 1996, 39/35

Kurt Warner, 2001, 36/3 (missed 9+ games)

Brett Favre, 1995, 38/39

Brett Fave, 1997, 35/31

Steve Beuerlein, 1999, 36/19

George Blanda, 1961, 36/27 (had 42 interceptions in 1962)

YA Tittle, 1963, 36/10

Steve Young, 1998, 36/3 (missed 13 games)

Steve Young, 1994, 35/20 (missed 5 games)

That's it . . . 14 QBs. It's a pretty safe bet to say CPep will do worse than last year.
While the data isn't a lot to go on I think your statement is accurate. I would bet he will drop before I'd bet he'll do as well. But then again, as you pointed out in another thread, he could drop substansially and still be the #1 or 2 QB. And in fact probably will.My projection:

336-525=4200 33 14 and 70-402-3.

Basically I have him and Manning neck and neck on FPTS.

 

joffer

Footballguy
Moss or no Moss, Culpepper will throw it often. TDs may go down and his efficiency and YPA will drop, but he's still easily the #2 fantasy QB. 340/530/4240/28/15 passing82/400/4 rushing

 

-OZ-

Footballguy
The only question IMO is whether he should be the #2 or #3 QB taken this year. It used to be a question of whether he was #1 or #2.

 
M

MelvinTScupper

Guest
The only question IMO is whether he should be the #2 or #3 QB taken this year.

It used to be a question of whether he was #1 or #2.
:goodposting: He certainly didn't struggle when Moss was out.

 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
I mean, how can you lose one of the greatest receivers ever and expect to not miss a beat.  I think that's pretty unrealistic and am figuring that into my projections.
Brett Favre and Steve Young did it.
Brief hijack... Steve Young never did it.Jerry Rice was his leading receiver in every one of his seasons as the SF starter except 1997, when Rice got hurt in the first game. If that is the parallel you are drawing, Young finished with 3029 passing yards and 19 TDs (fantasy QB9), plus he had Owens who finished as WR20.

The following season, with Rice back, Young jumped to 4170 passing yards and 36 TDs (fantasy QB1).

That example is a very poor one for anyone suggesting Culpepper will not miss Moss.

 

bostonfred

Footballguy
The only question IMO is whether he should be the #2 or #3 QB taken this year.

It used to be a question of whether he was #1 or #2.
:goodposting: He certainly didn't struggle when Moss was out.
Certainly? He was the #9 QB while Moss was out, despite playing the easiest schedule in the NFL over that period.
 

bostonfred

Footballguy
The only question IMO is whether he should be the #2 or #3 QB taken this year.

It used to be a question of whether he was #1 or #2.
Actually there's another, more important question - should he be drafted in the first two rounds. Because even if you believe he's the #2 or #3 QB, that's traditionally not been worth such an early pick.
 

David Yudkin

Footballguy
I mean, how can you lose one of the greatest receivers ever and expect to not miss a beat.  I think that's pretty unrealistic and am figuring that into my projections.
Brett Favre and Steve Young did it.
Brief hijack... Steve Young never did it.Jerry Rice was his leading receiver in every one of his seasons as the SF starter except 1997, when Rice got hurt in the first game. If that is the parallel you are drawing, Young finished with 3029 passing yards and 19 TDs (fantasy QB9), plus he had Owens who finished as WR20.

The following season, with Rice back, Young jumped to 4170 passing yards and 36 TDs (fantasy QB1).

That example is a very poor one for anyone suggesting Culpepper will not miss Moss.
In 1996, Young averaged 200.8 yards passing and 1.17 TD per game. In 1997 without Rice, Young averaged 201.9 yards passing and 1.27 TD per game. The 1995-1997 years were not great for Young, as he ranked as fantasy's 9th, 10th, and 9th best QB. As you mentioned, Young returned to have one more monster season in 1998, but statistically he did marginally BETTER without Rice the year Rice was hurt than the previous year.
 

jwvdcw

Footballguy
Moss or no Moss, Culpepper will throw it often. TDs may go down and his efficiency and YPA will drop, but he's still easily the #2 fantasy QB.

340/530/4240/28/15 passing

82/400/4 rushing
Why do you think that? They drafted another RB, got very young at WR, lost their best WR, and got much much better on defense. Personally, I think their organization is tired of the air it out attack and I see them trying to pull a complete 180 and changing philosophies.
 

Dancing Bear

Footballguy
I guess that I am really surprised by some of the negative perceptions ...Daunte Culpepper has OUTPERFORMED every QB in the NFL the last 5 years from a fantasy perspective; this includes Peyton Manning every year including last year! How can you speculate that Culpepper will suck without Moss? Would you say the same thing about Manning losing Harrison?Culpepper could easily loose 30% of his total from 2004 [5 pts per game] and still outperform everyone!The whole Minnesota offense struggled with the first few games after loosing Moss, but they did overcome that and had stability and moved the ball consistently.This required Daunte to review the field and to throw to guys like Wiggins, Burleson, Robinson and Campbell. Can I remind folks that he accounted for over 5,100 yards and Moss only had 800! That's 4,300 total yards outside of Moss.He also is tough and plays through pain [a broken back for instance]. There is no way he falls outside of the Top 5 QB's. IMHO, the only way he drops out of the Top 2 is if a guy like Hasselbeck pushes him down by having a once-in-a-lifetime Manning-like year.I believe that he will finish somewhere around 386 fantasy points for the season.4000 passing yards30 passing TD's12 ints480 rushing yards5 rushing TD's

 

jwvdcw

Footballguy
The only question IMO is whether he should be the #2 or #3 QB taken this year.

It used to be a question of whether he was #1 or #2.
:goodposting: He certainly didn't struggle when Moss was out.
:confused: First 5 weeks: Moss healthy

1. 242-5

2. 343-1

3. 360-2

4. 396-5

5. 425-5

average: 353.2 yards and 3.6 TDs

Next 5 weeks: Moss injured

6. 183-1

7. 231-2

8. 169-1

9. 363-4

10. 233-2

average: 235.8 yards and 2 TDs

Edited to add: Those 5 weeks with Moss out were also Culpepper's easiest FF stretch of the season when you look at those team's defensive passing stats.

 
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jwvdcw

Footballguy
I guess that I am really surprised by some of the negative perceptions ...

Daunte Culpepper has OUTPERFORMED every QB in the NFL the last 5 years from a fantasy perspective; this includes Peyton Manning every year including last year!

How can you speculate that Culpepper will suck without Moss? Would you say the same thing about Manning losing Harrison?

Culpepper could easily loose 30% of his total from 2004 [5 pts per game] and still outperform everyone!

The whole Minnesota offense struggled with the first few games after loosing Moss, but they did overcome that and had stability and moved the ball consistently.

This required Daunte to review the field and to throw to guys like Wiggins, Burleson, Robinson and Campbell. Can I remind folks that he accounted for over 5,100 yards and Moss only had 800! That's 4,300 total yards outside of Moss.

He also is tough and plays through pain [a broken back for instance]. There is no way he falls outside of the Top 5 QB's. IMHO, the only way he drops out of the Top 2 is if a guy like Hasselbeck pushes him down by having a once-in-a-lifetime Manning-like year.

I believe that he will finish somewhere around 386 fantasy points for the season.

4000 passing yards

30 passing TD's

12 ints

480 rushing yards

5 rushing TD's
Jeff George and Randall Cunningham also outperformed every QB in the NFL when they had Randy Moss. Also, Gus Frerotte(while it was a small sample size) was the #1 ranked FF QB over the course of the 3 weeks that he played with Moss when Culepper was hurt....does that meant hat you think Frerotte will be top 3 this year in Miami. Moss is so damn good that he makes any QB top 3 automatically. Take him away and these QBs are average.
 

David Yudkin

Footballguy
Moss or no Moss, Culpepper will throw it often.  TDs may go down and his efficiency and YPA will drop, but he's still easily the #2 fantasy QB. 

340/530/4240/28/15 passing

82/400/4 rushing
Why do you think that? They drafted another RB, got very young at WR, lost their best WR, and got much much better on defense. Personally, I think their organization is tired of the air it out attack and I see them trying to pull a complete 180 and changing philosophies.
Since Culpepper took over, the Vikings have ranked 23rd, 10th, 13th, 16th, and 8th in passing attempts (an average of 14th)--hardly a non-stop air assault. They've ranked 17th, 28th, 8th, 7th, and 28th (an average of 17th) in rushing attempts.UP UNTIL NOW, Culpepper has been a top fantasy producer no matter what combination or game plan the team has concocted.

 

bostonfred

Footballguy
How can you speculate that Culpepper will suck without Moss? Would you say the same thing about Manning losing Harrison?
Yes, I would expect a big dropoff in Manning's stats if Harrison were traded and they drafted a rookie WR - say, Reggie Wayne - in his place.
 

bostonfred

Footballguy
Moss or no Moss, Culpepper will throw it often.  TDs may go down and his efficiency and YPA will drop, but he's still easily the #2 fantasy QB. 

340/530/4240/28/15 passing

82/400/4 rushing
Why do you think that? They drafted another RB, got very young at WR, lost their best WR, and got much much better on defense. Personally, I think their organization is tired of the air it out attack and I see them trying to pull a complete 180 and changing philosophies.
Since Culpepper took over, the Vikings have ranked 23rd, 10th, 13th, 16th, and 8th in passing attempts (an average of 14th)--hardly a non-stop air assault. They've ranked 17th, 28th, 8th, 7th, and 28th (an average of 17th) in rushing attempts.UP UNTIL NOW, Culpepper has been a top fantasy producer no matter what combination or game plan the team has concocted.
During that stretch, THEY'VE HAD RANDY MOSS. Also during that stretch, they were the #28, #24, #26, #28 and #29 defense in the NFL, respectively. If they've improved their defense, that's two HUGE things that have changed.

 

jwvdcw

Footballguy
Moss or no Moss, Culpepper will throw it often.  TDs may go down and his efficiency and YPA will drop, but he's still easily the #2 fantasy QB. 

340/530/4240/28/15 passing

82/400/4 rushing
Why do you think that? They drafted another RB, got very young at WR, lost their best WR, and got much much better on defense. Personally, I think their organization is tired of the air it out attack and I see them trying to pull a complete 180 and changing philosophies.
Since Culpepper took over, the Vikings have ranked 23rd, 10th, 13th, 16th, and 8th in passing attempts (an average of 14th)--hardly a non-stop air assault. They've ranked 17th, 28th, 8th, 7th, and 28th (an average of 17th) in rushing attempts.UP UNTIL NOW, Culpepper has been a top fantasy producer no matter what combination or game plan the team has concocted.
That is attempts though. Many of those attempts have gone way downfield. I don't think they'll do that nearly as much this year.
 

David Yudkin

Footballguy
I guess that I am really surprised by some of the negative perceptions ...

Daunte Culpepper has OUTPERFORMED every QB in the NFL the last 5 years from a fantasy perspective; this includes Peyton Manning every year including last year! 

How can you speculate that Culpepper will suck without Moss?  Would you say the same thing about Manning losing Harrison?

Culpepper could easily loose 30% of his total from 2004 [5 pts per game] and still outperform everyone!

The whole Minnesota offense struggled with the first few games after loosing Moss, but they did overcome that and had stability and moved the ball consistently.

This required Daunte to review the field and to throw to guys like Wiggins, Burleson, Robinson and Campbell.  Can I remind folks that he accounted for over 5,100 yards and Moss only had 800!  That's 4,300 total yards outside of Moss.

He also is tough and plays through pain [a broken back for instance].  There is no way he falls outside of the Top 5 QB's.  IMHO, the only way he drops out of the Top 2 is if a guy like Hasselbeck pushes him down by having a once-in-a-lifetime Manning-like year.

I believe that he will finish somewhere around 386 fantasy points for the season.

4000 passing yards

30 passing TD's

12 ints

480 rushing yards

5 rushing TD's
Jeff George and Randall Cunningham also outperformed every QB in the NFL when they had Randy Moss. Also, Gus Frerotte(while it was a small sample size) was the #1 ranked FF QB over the course of the 3 weeks that he played with Moss when Culepper was hurt....does that meant hat you think Frerotte will be top 3 this year in Miami. Moss is so damn good that he makes any QB top 3 automatically. Take him away and these QBs are average.
I'm sure that this thread is in danger of rehashing many other threads, but both George and Cunningham had been Top 5 QB before they came to Minnesota. And the Minnesota offense had been a top tier offense for 10 years before Moss got there. I still question those that think that Moss "made" the Vikings QBs and Minnesota the offense that has been rolling for 15+ years at this point.
 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
Here is a good thread that hashed out the possible Pros and Cons of Culpepper this season in great detail...

If Culpepper's passing stats drop 35% without Moss, will he still be a top 5 QB?
Some of my posts from that thread and Player Spotlight: Nate Burleson:
First off, I agree with Diesel that looking at last year's numbers with & without Moss are misleading. His loss required an in season adjustment, with no opportunity to obtain a quality replacement. The general assumption right now seems to be they will attempt to replace him with a quality player, plus they will have plenty of time to adjust the offense to his loss.

For similar reasons, David's examples about lost players are also not terribly useful IMO.

That said, I do think Culpepper will drop off. Check the past 3 years for the Vikes:

Passing:

2002: 3951 yards, 19 TDs

2003: 4169 yards, 32 TDs

2004: 4754 yards, 39 TDs

Rushing:

2002: 473/2507/26

2003: 493/2343/15

2004: 387/1823/8

We all know the Vikings had a revolving door at RB last season and had to deal with Smith's suspension and Bennett's injury problems. Even with Moss, I suspect they would run the ball more next year... I'd look for them to have 100 more rushing attempts next year, which would be more in line with 2002 & 2003.

In conjunction, I'd expect the Vikes' passing game to look more like it did when Moss was out last season, meaning more passes to backs and tight ends and fewer downfield passes. There is nothing wrong with that... Culpepper's numbers without Moss still put him on pace for 3772 passing yards and 29 passing TDs. But that is a far cry from the 5146/44 pace he put up with Moss last year.

I'd predict 515 attempts for 3700 yards, 25 passing TDs, and 16 interceptions. That's 268 fantasy points from passing (FBG scoring). I'd look for 450/4 rushing, another 69 fantasy points, for a total of 337.

That is still top 5, probably top 3. But an important point here is that he will be much closer to the pack. IMO this removes the value that would have to be present to justify his likely draft position. I'd rather take Trent Green 2-3 rounds later.
Culpepper with healthy Moss last season:

+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| WK OPP | CMP ATT PYD TD INT | RSH YD TD |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| 1 dal | 17 23 242 5 0 | 6 25 0 || 2 phi | 37 47 343 1 1 | 8 41 0 || 3 chi | 19 30 360 2 0 | 6 13 1 || 5 hou | 36 50 396 5 0 | 6 30 0 || 6 nor | 26 37 425 5 2 | 7 13 0 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| TOTAL | 135 187 1766 18 3 | 33 122 1 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+72.2% completion percentage and 9.4 ypa. Scales to 16 game totals of 5651 passing yards, 58 passing TDs, and 10 interceptions. :shock: Culpepper with unhealthy but playing Moss last season:

+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| WK OPP | CMP ATT PYD TD INT | RSH YD TD |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| 12 jax | 19 27 235 1 1 | 8 18 1 || 13 chi | 23 33 279 2 3 | 6 50 0 || 14 sea | 21 33 270 1 0 | 6 32 0 || 15 det | 25 35 404 3 1 | 4 22 0 || 16 gnb | 16 23 285 3 0 | 3 21 0 || 17 was | 27 44 299 2 0 | 2 24 0 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| TOTAL | 131 195 1772 12 5 | 29 167 1 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+67.2% completion percentage and 9.1 ypa. Scales to 16 game totals of 4725 passing yards, 32 passing TDs, and 13 interceptions.Culpepper without Moss last season:

+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| WK OPP | CMP ATT PYD TD INT | RSH YD TD |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| 7 ten | 24 30 183 1 0 | 3 4 0 || 8 nyg | 24 42 231 1 2 | 5 32 0 || 9 ind | 16 19 169 1 0 | 5 27 0 || 10 gnb | 27 44 363 4 0 | 3 19 0 || 11 det | 22 32 233 2 1 | 11 35 0 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| TOTAL | 113 167 1179 9 3 | 27 117 0 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+67.7% completion percentage and 7.1 ypa. Scales to 16 game totals of 3772 passing yards, 29 passing TDs, and 10 interceptions.The numbers Culpepper posted in games missed by Moss are solid, but they are a far cry from the numbers with Moss. Without Moss, yards per attempt dropped substantially, as Culpepper presumably threw more to the backs and tight ends. Passing attempts also dropped, as the Vikes presumably focused more on the running game.
There are many references to how Culpepper and Burleson played without Moss last year, but no numbers so far.

...

Now, what has changed since that stretch of 5 games?

1. The Minnesota RBs have gotten healthy and off suspension. This, combined with a stated intent to focus more on the running game this year by Tice, could result in:

a. More rushing attempts and less passing attempts.

b. More red zone rushing and less red zone passing, leading to more rushing TDs and fewer passing TDs.

c. More involvement in the passing game by the RBs. This is probably a stretch, since the Vikings RBs combined for 106/1081/4 last year... but they did average 10.2 ypc... could be easier and less risky to move the chains with those passes than short passes to the WRs.

...

3. The defense appears to be significantly improved. This could lead to a more conservative offense, whether it is in terms of less passing attempts or just more conservative passing attempts. This is a repeat of 1a above, but for a different reason. Last year the Vikes' defense gave up 21 or more points 12 times, so the offense had to score in the mid 20s to have a chance to win. This year that likely won't be the case.
consider that Tice has been HC for three seasons. In the first two, the offense had 473 and 493 rushing attempts, 8th and 7th in the league, respectively. Last season, they dropped to 387, 28th in the league. It just so happens that their top 3 backs missed 16 games between them and they were forced into a rotating committee. This year, those problems are not likely to reoccur. Hence, it is reasonable to assume they will have significantly more rushing attempts this year. Does this in and of itself mean less passing attempts? No, but it can't be taken as a positive for the passing game.
I would be surprised to see Duante Culpepper throw for less than 4000 yards.
This is where I think people go wrong with their Vikings passing game predictions. Culpepper has played 5 seasons as a starter and reached 4000 yards once--last year. Granted he was close two other times, but all three of those instances were with Moss, and in one case with Carter as well. I would expect around 3800-3900 yards, assuming he plays 16 games. It wouldn't surprise me if he had 4200 yards, but it also wouldn't surprise me if he had 3600.
Moss accounted for less than 30% of the gross passing yardage total
This may be true, but there is no doubt that Moss drew the focus of the defense and sometimes as many as three defenders. That obviously helped to open up the rest of the offense and no doubt made Culpepper's job a lot easier. This year they won't have that type of threat... everyone will have to earn their way open.
Most relevant for this thread:
I'd predict 515 attempts for 3700 yards, 25 passing TDs, and 16 interceptions. That's 268 fantasy points from passing (FBG scoring). I'd look for 450/4 rushing, another 69 fantasy points, for a total of 337.

That is still top 5, probably top 3. But an important point here is that he will be much closer to the pack. IMO this removes the value that would have to be present to justify his likely draft position. I'd rather take Trent Green 2-3 rounds later.
 

bostonfred

Footballguy
I guess that I am really surprised by some of the negative perceptions ...

Daunte Culpepper has OUTPERFORMED every QB in the NFL the last 5 years from a fantasy perspective; this includes Peyton Manning every year including last year! 

How can you speculate that Culpepper will suck without Moss?  Would you say the same thing about Manning losing Harrison?

Culpepper could easily loose 30% of his total from 2004 [5 pts per game] and still outperform everyone!

The whole Minnesota offense struggled with the first few games after loosing Moss, but they did overcome that and had stability and moved the ball consistently.

This required Daunte to review the field and to throw to guys like Wiggins, Burleson, Robinson and Campbell.  Can I remind folks that he accounted for over 5,100 yards and Moss only had 800!  That's 4,300 total yards outside of Moss.

He also is tough and plays through pain [a broken back for instance].  There is no way he falls outside of the Top 5 QB's.  IMHO, the only way he drops out of the Top 2 is if a guy like Hasselbeck pushes him down by having a once-in-a-lifetime Manning-like year.

I believe that he will finish somewhere around 386 fantasy points for the season.

4000 passing yards

30 passing TD's

12 ints

480 rushing yards

5 rushing TD's
Jeff George and Randall Cunningham also outperformed every QB in the NFL when they had Randy Moss. Also, Gus Frerotte(while it was a small sample size) was the #1 ranked FF QB over the course of the 3 weeks that he played with Moss when Culepper was hurt....does that meant hat you think Frerotte will be top 3 this year in Miami. Moss is so damn good that he makes any QB top 3 automatically. Take him away and these QBs are average.
I'm sure that this thread is in danger of rehashing many other threads, but both George and Cunningham had been Top 5 QB before they came to Minnesota. And the Minnesota offense had been a top tier offense for 10 years before Moss got there. I still question those that think that Moss "made" the Vikings QBs and Minnesota the offense that has been rolling for 15+ years at this point.
That's right, the Vikings offense that has had no fewer than one Hall of Fame wide receiver at any given time for each of the last 15+ years did very well passing the ball. And they weren't as good before they got a Hall of Fame wide receiver. That's exactly the point.
 

jwvdcw

Footballguy
I guess that I am really surprised by some of the negative perceptions ...

Daunte Culpepper has OUTPERFORMED every QB in the NFL the last 5 years from a fantasy perspective; this includes Peyton Manning every year including last year! 

How can you speculate that Culpepper will suck without Moss?  Would you say the same thing about Manning losing Harrison?

Culpepper could easily loose 30% of his total from 2004 [5 pts per game] and still outperform everyone!

The whole Minnesota offense struggled with the first few games after loosing Moss, but they did overcome that and had stability and moved the ball consistently.

This required Daunte to review the field and to throw to guys like Wiggins, Burleson, Robinson and Campbell.  Can I remind folks that he accounted for over 5,100 yards and Moss only had 800!  That's 4,300 total yards outside of Moss.

He also is tough and plays through pain [a broken back for instance].  There is no way he falls outside of the Top 5 QB's.  IMHO, the only way he drops out of the Top 2 is if a guy like Hasselbeck pushes him down by having a once-in-a-lifetime Manning-like year.

I believe that he will finish somewhere around 386 fantasy points for the season.

4000 passing yards

30 passing TD's

12 ints

480 rushing yards

5 rushing TD's
Jeff George and Randall Cunningham also outperformed every QB in the NFL when they had Randy Moss. Also, Gus Frerotte(while it was a small sample size) was the #1 ranked FF QB over the course of the 3 weeks that he played with Moss when Culepper was hurt....does that meant hat you think Frerotte will be top 3 this year in Miami. Moss is so damn good that he makes any QB top 3 automatically. Take him away and these QBs are average.
I'm sure that this thread is in danger of rehashing many other threads, but both George and Cunningham had been Top 5 QB before they came to Minnesota. And the Minnesota offense had been a top tier offense for 10 years before Moss got there. I still question those that think that Moss "made" the Vikings QBs and Minnesota the offense that has been rolling for 15+ years at this point.
Cunningham was only a FF asset due to his rushing, whcih he had lost by that time. From another thread...Ok, so using your own stats that you just gave(I'm too lazy to double check them):

Without Randy Moss:

-Brad Johnson had one top 5 season in 11 pro years(7 years in which he was the starting QB for his team)

-Cunningham had four top 5 seasons in 14 years(9 years in which he was a starter)

- Jeff George had 0 top 5 seasons in 11 years(8 years in which he was a starter)

-Todd Bouman had 0 top 5 season in 3 season(0 years as starter)

-Spurgeon Wynn had 0 top 5 seasons in 4 years(0 as a starter)

-Gus Frerotte had 0 top 5 seasons in 9 years(5 as a starter)

Notes about my stats: The years played and years as a starter are only those in which they did not play with Moss. For me to count the year as a starter, they had to start more the majority of their team's games.

I have already shown imo that these QBs have put up just as good of numbers as Culpepper has with Randy Moss. However without Randy Moss, these QBs have put up a total of five top 5 seasons in 52 years(9.6%), 29 of which they were starting QBs(17%). So clearly you would not be willing to bet straight up that one of these QBs could put up a top 5 season without Moss. Yet many are willing to bet that with Culpepper(by drafting him anywhere in the top 3 rounds, you basically are saying that you think he'll be at least top 5). Why?

Edited to add: And really the only reason that there are so many top 5 years among these QBs is due to Cunningham. But heres the thing: Cunningham was clearly not the FANTASY QB in his older age that he was in his younger age(his running was primarily what made hiim a great FF QB when he was young), so that even skews the data more in my favor when you consider that. If we were to eliminate the years the Cunningham was top 5 due to his rushing(which it is obvious to everyone that he did not still have when he played with Moss), then there would only be 1 or 2 top 5 seasons out of all of those years.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"And the Minnesota offense had been a top tier offense for 10 years before Moss got there. "

The year before Moss got there they were 16th in passing. In his first year, they were 2nd. Same QB both years and Cris Carter was there both years as well....Moss was the only difference. I expect a similar fall this year with them losing Moss.

 
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Just Win Baby

Footballguy
Since Culpepper took over, the Vikings have ranked 23rd, 10th, 13th, 16th, and 8th in passing attempts (an average of 14th)--hardly a non-stop air assault. They've ranked 17th, 28th, 8th, 7th, and 28th (an average of 17th) in rushing attempts.

UP UNTIL NOW, Culpepper has been a top fantasy producer no matter what combination or game plan the team has concocted.
During that stretch, THEY'VE HAD RANDY MOSS. Also during that stretch, they were the #28, #24, #26, #28 and #29 defense in the NFL, respectively. If they've improved their defense, that's two HUGE things that have changed.
:goodposting: LOL at the first comment. It is so obvious, yet so overlooked.

 

David Yudkin

Footballguy
That's right, the Vikings offense that has had no fewer than one Hall of Fame wide receiver at any given time for each of the last 15+ years did very well passing the ball. And they weren't as good before they got a Hall of Fame wide receiver. That's exactly the point.
And the offense chugged on the entire time. Daunte Culpepper, Jeff George, Brad Johnson, Warren Moon, Tommy Kramer, Rich Gannon, and Wade Wilson all lead the offense to Top 10 rankings in most offensive passing categories-- and even Jim McMahon and Sean Salisbury almost did it as well. And they did not have a HOF WR every year.The mystery here is not whether Culpepper's stats will suffer--as I have yet to see anyone project him to do better than last year. The question is how much worse will he do this year.
 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
the Minnesota offense had been a top tier offense for 10 years before Moss got there. I still question those that think that Moss "made" the Vikings QBs and Minnesota the offense that has been rolling for 15+ years at this point.
It puzzles me why people think looking at a trend that goes back 15 years is useful when there has not been a consistent coaching staff or any consistent set of players in place over that span.There is no reason to look back further than Culpepper's starting career in Minnesota, and one could argue that it makes better sense to look back only three years--Tice's tenure. And all of that fails to recognize that we really are still comparing apples and oranges due to the loss of Moss, whose impact on the offense went well beyond his own statistics.

 

bostonfred

Footballguy
the Minnesota offense had been a top tier offense for 10 years before Moss got there.  I still question those that think that Moss "made" the Vikings QBs and Minnesota the offense that has been rolling for 15+ years at this point.
It puzzles me why people think looking at a trend that goes back 15 years is useful when there has not been a consistent coaching staff or any consistent set of players in place over that span.
Actually, that's not true. Minnesota had at least one Hall of Fame receiver (either Cris Carter, Randy Moss, or both) for every one of the last fifteen years. And they've been a good to great passing offense the entire time. That just goes to show the impact that a Hall of Fame receiver has on their passing game.
 

Chase Stuart

Footballguy
I'd be curious as to what the "Moss made Culpepper" theorists think a great QB would do with Moss on his team. How many yards would Tom Brady throw for if he had Randy Moss? How about Peyton Manning? Or Brett Favre?Maybe they would set the record for most total yards by a quarterback in a season? Currently held by Daunte Culpepper of course.

 

bostonfred

Footballguy
That's right, the Vikings offense that has had no fewer than one Hall of Fame wide receiver at any given time for each of the last 15+ years did very well passing the ball. And they weren't as good before they got a Hall of Fame wide receiver. That's exactly the point.
And the offense chugged on the entire time. Daunte Culpepper, Jeff George, Brad Johnson, Warren Moon, Tommy Kramer, Rich Gannon, and Wade Wilson all lead the offense to Top 10 rankings in most offensive passing categories-- and even Jim McMahon and Sean Salisbury almost did it as well.
EXACTLY. ALL OF THOSE PLAYERS THREW TO AT LEAST ONE HALL OF FAME WIDE RECEIVER.
And they did not have a HOF WR every year.
Yes they did. Cris Carter arrived in Minnesota 15 seasons ago. He was actually a little slow out of the gate, but so was the Minnesota passing game. The Vikings were not a top ten passing offense until Cris Carter had his 122 catch 1994 and 1995 seasons. In 96, when Carter caught 96 more balls, they were again top ten. In 97, they cooled off, dropping to the #16 pass offense as Carter caught fewer than 90 balls for the first time in four years. Then in 1997, they jumped back up to #2 in the league as Randy Moss arrived. Regardless of the quarterback, they were still a top ten passing offense every year since then. That's pretty compelling evidence of the value of a top WR.
The mystery here is not whether Culpepper's stats will suffer--as I have yet to see anyone project him to do better than last year. The question is how much worse will he do this year.
The question is whether you want your first or second round pick to be a guy where you say "How much worse could he really do".
 

David Yudkin

Footballguy
the Minnesota offense had been a top tier offense for 10 years before Moss got there.  I still question those that think that Moss "made" the Vikings QBs and Minnesota the offense that has been rolling for 15+ years at this point.
It puzzles me why people think looking at a trend that goes back 15 years is useful when there has not been a consistent coaching staff or any consistent set of players in place over that span.
Actually, that's not true. Minnesota had at least one Hall of Fame receiver (either Cris Carter, Randy Moss, or both) for every one of the last fifteen years. And they've been a good to great passing offense the entire time. That just goes to show the impact that a Hall of Fame receiver has on their passing game.
Of the QBs I listed, I went back 20 years--and the Vikes still had years in the Top 10 in passing/points scored.While others are pointing to only using more recent history to support their cases, excluding anything earlier negates ALL counterpoints. Therefore, you guys are not debating against anyone else, as you have left no other viewpoints AT ALL.

My question (considering the 20 year track record) would be to explore the other external factors that also could have contributed to the team's offensive success. These could include consistently having an easy schedule, playing in a division/conference that can't stop the pass very well, playing indoors, good scouting, hiring coaching staffs that focused on the passing game, good drafting of offensive talent, etc.

Again, I think that heaping all the success of Minnesota's offense for YEARS on the shoulders of Randy Moss is grossly exaggerating his skills and abilities and ignoring a lot of other factors that have also played roles into the equation.

 

radballs.

Footballguy
I'd be curious as to what the "Moss made Culpepper" theorists think a great QB would do with Moss on his team. How many yards would Tom Brady throw for if he had Randy Moss? How about Peyton Manning? Or Brett Favre?

Maybe they would set the record for most total yards by a quarterback in a season?

Currently held by Daunte Culpepper of course.
:goodposting: No, great posting.
 

radballs.

Footballguy
BF, Please don't keep lumping Carter with Moss by saying that they're both be HOFers. Apples and oranges. I'll explain with stats to back it up later. TIACulpepper deserves a little more respect than you're giving him.

 

bostonfred

Footballguy
I'd be curious as to what the "Moss made Culpepper" theorists think a great QB would do with Moss on his team. How many yards would Tom Brady throw for if he had Randy Moss? How about Peyton Manning? Or Brett Favre?

Maybe they would set the record for most total yards by a quarterback in a season?

Currently held by Daunte Culpepper of course.
If Favre had had Randy Moss, there is no question in my mind he would have broken Marino's record. He threw for 39 TDs with Don Beebe, an injured Robert Brooks, a second year nobody in Antonio Freeman, and a career kick returner in Desmond Howard. In my opinion, Favre has made just about every receiver he's ever had. He's that good. We'll probably have another one of these debates when Favre retires and people are still drafting Javon Walker in the third round. :D

 

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