Player Spotlight: DeAngelo Williams (1 Viewer)

[Loan Sharks]

This is interesting. I looked at it as well, and I noticed that 10 of those 13 came in 1998 - 2002...only one in 2007, none in 2006, one each in 2005 and 2004 and none in 2003 - making it only 3 in the past 5 years.Given recent trends, it might even be more unlikely that Stewart will approach 300 carries then I thought...if the average for the past 5 years is less then well less than one player per season getting even 250 carries, it seems like the odds are against Stewart approaching 300.Interesting stuff, for sure.

Yeah, that is a lot of carries for sure. I have Williams at 230, Stewart at 130 and misc contributors at around 50 carries. That's about 410 carries which I think is a decent amount of rushing attempts for a team that does have some decent recievers.

 

[David Yudkin]

This is interesting. I looked at it as well, and I noticed that 10 of those 13 came in 1998 - 2002...only one in 2007, none in 2006, one each in 2005 and 2004 and none in 2003 - making it only 3 in the past 5 years.Given recent trends, it might even be more unlikely that Stewart will approach 300 carries then I thought...if the average for the past 5 years is less then well less than one player per season getting even 250 carries, it seems like the odds are against Stewart approaching 300.Interesting stuff, for sure.

The # of 300 carry backs dropped off last year. In 2007, there were only 6. That's less than half of the 13 in 2003. There usually or 9 or 10 backs that hit 300 carries each year.I will say this though about last year. Several guys got banged up, and they were likely candidates to hit the 300 plateau (Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Steven Jackson, Rudi Johnson off the top of my head).I still think teams wouldn't mind if they had a guy that could stay healthy and productive for that many carries. I doubt the Panthers are ones that will have a 300 carry back however.

 

[Jedimaster21]

1. Signs point to establishing a running game, true. But the difference between Stewart and Foster is night and day (and I like Foster) and part of the reason they ran so much is their QB situation was a MESS. They will run about the same if I had to guess.

2. Stewart probably will see 300 carries. As you said in point 1, they are trying to establish a running game.

3. Williams will be the primary back up and 3rd down back at times. I just see him having a slightly smaller role than last season.

Since the NFL-AFL merger, only 14 RB have carried the ball 300+ times in their rookie season. Only 2 of those seasons have come since 2000 - LaDainian Tomlinson and Jamal Lewis. One season was played by the best RB of his generation (and I don't think we are going to compare Stewart to Tomlinson just yet) and in the other season, the Ravens rushed the ball over 500 times (which I don't think we will see from the Panthers this year).I'm not saying it can't happen, I'm just saying that history shows that rookie RBs don't get that many carries. That said, John Fox certainly has gone against what many people think he should have done when it comes to his RBs, so who knows.

I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with you, but if you drop the number of carries down to 250, then the data set goes up to 36 times since 1970 with 13 of them in the past 10 seasons. So basically 1.3 times per year on average over the past 10 years.

So if you set Stewart's carries to 250, then that means about 40 more carries for DeAngelo when considering the 90 carry prediction by Switz. That puts him at a much more reasonable number of carries, yards, and fantasy points. I must admit, I really thought that Carolina would feature Williams, and was extremely surprised by their choice of RB in the first round. I do think Stewart is an excellent back, but if you aren't going to give DeAngelo a chance, why draft him in the first round two years ago? It just shows how disorganized the Carolina plan/front office has been.Due to the talent of Stewart, I don't see a huge year for DeAngelo. However, he should begin the year as the starter and continue to get COP carries and a lot of third down duty if Stewart manages to steal the job. That will result in a decent year for him. There is more upside than that if Stewart is slow recovering from his foot or DeAngelo plays very well (which is also possible). At this point, it is really hard to make a strong prediction, but I think DeAngelo's floor and ceiling are a lot higher than some are stating in this thread.

 

[H.K.]

So is it possible that the reason DWill didn't beat out Foster last year was due to Fox not trusting him to protect the QB? Everyone is focusing on DWill's production but maybe he has just sucked at pass protection the last few years and the coaches didn't trust him to protect the QB in obvious passing downs.

Ding Ding Ding!!!! We have a winner!!!!

Apr. 27, 2008 - 10:01 a.m. ET

The Rock Hill Herald believes that following the Panthers' selection of Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams could see even fewer carries than he did last year.

There's no debating that Stewart is more talented than DeShaun Foster, who Williams couldn't pass on the depth chart for two years. Stewart will be the heavy favorite for goal-line carries. Third-down work will be up for grabs, but Williams' inability to pass block adequately hurts him in that competition.

Source: Rock Hill Herald

Feb. 23, 2008 - 6:05 p.m. ET

Coach John Fox confirmed at the NFL Combine that the Panthers will pursue another back to complement DeAngelo Williams.

"We feel like we've got a good, viable guy in DeAngelo and we're going to have to find someone else," Fox said. "Obviously, we're going to have a need there." Fox indicated the team won't necessarily pursue a big short-yardage type back. They will likely need someone capable of picking up blitzes.

Source: Charlotte Observer

Williams has been very poor in pass protection, which hurt the entire offense in terms of limiting play selection and the QB's ability to check off.

 

[switz]

So even though you see the offense being recommited to the running game you see the total number of rushing attempts being the same as last year. When the offense had no QB and injuries to its offensive line causing the offense to be so inept that it really struggled to get 1st downs. Something is not adding up right. Will add total offensive plays, 1st downs and TOP later when I have time but I see all 3 of these important factors improving from 2007 to 2008. Why do you think the rushing attempts will be the same when you also seem to think that the QB situation and RB situations are improved?

2007 - 505 pass att, 451 rush att2006 - 539 pass att, 423 rush att

2005 - 449 pass att, 487 rush att

2004 - 533 pass att, 422 rush att

2003 - 460 pass att, 522 rush att

Average carries over the last 5 years? 461 - and that's including the 522 carry season, where Davis had 318, and Foster had 113. In '04 both Davis and Foster were injured. In '06 Foster took over as the starter, Williams had 121 carries as Foster wasn't that great. In '06 both Foster and Williams had career highs in # of carries.

The team went out and drafted an RB they feel is like Stephen Davis. They are going to run him a ton. But even when Davis exceeded 300 carries, Foster (the then #2 guy) barely broke 100.

If the team is heading back in that direction, then Stewart will see around 300, Williams around 100-110. I earlier said 90, that's about 1 carry per game low, not a huge difference.

Like I said, I expect the total carries to be about the same as last year, even though the team is leaning toward establishing a running game. Interestingly, over the past 5 years, the high carry years were both lower than last year's passing #s, and I don't see any reason to believe the passing will be less this season now that Delhomme is back. The runnign game will be improved, but it likely won't be evident in number of rush attempts.

 

[msommer]

So is it possible that the reason DWill didn't beat out Foster last year was due to Fox not trusting him to protect the QB? Everyone is focusing on DWill's production but maybe he has just sucked at pass protection the last few years and the coaches didn't trust him to protect the QB in obvious passing downs.

Ding Ding Ding!!!! We have a winner!!!!

Apr. 27, 2008 - 10:01 a.m. ET

The Rock Hill Herald believes that following the Panthers' selection of Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams could see even fewer carries than he did last year.

There's no debating that Stewart is more talented than DeShaun Foster, who Williams couldn't pass on the depth chart for two years. Stewart will be the heavy favorite for goal-line carries. Third-down work will be up for grabs, but Williams' inability to pass block adequately hurts him in that competition.

Source: Rock Hill Herald

Feb. 23, 2008 - 6:05 p.m. ET

Coach John Fox confirmed at the NFL Combine that the Panthers will pursue another back to complement DeAngelo Williams.

"We feel like we've got a good, viable guy in DeAngelo and we're going to have to find someone else," Fox said. "Obviously, we're going to have a need there." Fox indicated the team won't necessarily pursue a big short-yardage type back. They will likely need someone capable of picking up blitzes.

Source: Charlotte Observer

Williams has been very poor in pass protection, which hurt the entire offense in terms of limiting play selection and the QB's ability to check off.

More on thisLink

YOUTH MOVEMENT: The Panthers are expecting more out of RB DeAngelo Williams this year. He has shown flashes in limited roles (5.0 yards per carry last year), but they're going to go to him more often this year. He could be impactful in the screen game, which they hinted at last year before the quarterback position exploded and the offensive plan was thrown to the wind. He's improved the most at pass protection. It was once a liability but he can now be trusted back there.

Good timing to improve...

 

[H.K.]

More on this

Link

YOUTH MOVEMENT: The Panthers are expecting more out of RB DeAngelo Williams this year. He has shown flashes in limited roles (5.0 yards per carry last year), but they're going to go to him more often this year. He could be impactful in the screen game, which they hinted at last year before the quarterback position exploded and the offensive plan was thrown to the wind. He's improved the most at pass protection. It was once a liability but he can now be trusted back there.

Good timing to improve...

After two seasons he was a liability, and partly because of that they draft an RB in the first round. However, somewhere between late April and early July, Williams became much improved in pass protection?

Before anyone cites OTA's as an indicator, I'll just quote Mickey Spagnola:

"These "organized team activity" workouts, better known as OTA's are conducted in jerseys, shorts and helmets. No pads. That means no contact. So don't even bother to ask how this guy is doing or how that guy is doing. This is real man's football they play, not flag football, in which, by the way, there probably ends up being more contact than there is in these practice sessions."

Nothing that has happened since last year will tell anyone if Williams has improved until they put on the pads and live action starts. It is possible he may know his assignments better, but he missed plenty of blocks last year despite being in the right place, too.

Of course, many homers say that Fox has been traditionally loyal to his vets, which is another new role for Williams, too.

Here is what John Fox said in May:

Question:What were the team's needs prior to the draft and to what extent have you addressed them?

Answer: At the completion of the season, I think our number one need was quarterback. We felt good about Jake (Delhomme) the whole time. I can tell everyone here that Jake looks outstanding. He's bigger, stronger. He's worked out very, very strong. His arm is looking fantastic, maybe stronger than ever. So that was number one. Then we felt really good about Matt Moore. We held off on playing him on purpose. He came in and won two out of his last three games as a starter. We feel good about where he's at in his development at this stage.

We needed to get revitalized at the running back position. We decided very early on we wanted to go high in the draft to meet that need. I think we've done that with Jonathan Stewart.

We wanted to get more physical on the offensive line. I was tired of going for it on third-and-one and it being fourth-and-two. People have been critical of me for some time now for not going for it on fourth-and-one, and I think, "Why on earth would I ever do that? I can't get it on third-and-one." We wanted to get more physical up front, and I think we've accomplished that.

Defensively, we've made some changes to our defensive line. We wanted to get more youthful there and increase our ability to rush the passer. That was an area where we dropped off a year ago. We've been trying to address the safety need for some time, and I think we've found somebody there in (third-round draft choice) Charles Godfrey.

Question:What was it about running back Jonathan Stewart that caused him to move ahead of some of the other players that the team was considering?

Answer: Truth be known, if Jonathan hadn't had the toe situation, he probably never would've gotten to us. We were fortunate that we were familiar with it. One of our team doctors did the actual surgery, so we had a pretty good feel of timing (of his return). At one point, he was not going to have the surgery, which would have affected maybe what we did, too. The fact that he got the surgery done and we knew about what his comeback time would be made us feel much more comfortable. He's a powerful guy with a thick lower body, excellent balance, great feet, so he breaks a lot of tackles and gets yards after the first contact, which is something we look for.

Question:Who will return kickoffs for the Panthers this season?

Answer: Jonathan Stewart was one of the leaders in the country as well as in the Pac-10. He's a guy that will start off with those duties when we go to camp. Not only is he an outstanding running back, but that was one of the key factors as well.

Question:Are you nervous about your potential feature running back returning kickoffs?

Answer: It's no different than when Steve Smith was as our punt returner. We'll just evaluate that as we go.

As far as the topic goes for projecting Williams this season, I think its going to be very hard to do before camp opens. Look at all the variables surrounding this situation:1) Health of Delhomme - could get ugly if he can't spread the defense

2) Reshuffled OL with new personnel - many, many changes

3) Additional WR weapons - Moose returns as a very good run-blocker, but he and Hackett will impact how the offense is designed, too

4) Impact of rookie Stewart - the next S. Davis or next E.Shelton?

5) Still some good FA RB's on market - Don't rule out Carolina as a player if they don't like what they see when camp opens

For now, I'm not sure how anyone can do projections for the Carolina backfield with very much confidence.

 

[Tau837]

Here is what John Fox said in May:

Question:Who will return kickoffs for the Panthers this season?

Answer: Jonathan Stewart was one of the leaders in the country as well as in the Pac-10. He's a guy that will start off with those duties when we go to camp. Not only is he an outstanding running back, but that was one of the key factors as well.

Question:Are you nervous about your potential feature running back returning kickoffs?

Answer: It's no different than when Steve Smith was as our punt returner. We'll just evaluate that as we go.

IMO if Stewart is the primary kickoff returner, it will mean fewer touches on offense for him, and thus will be good for Williams.

 

[joffer]

195/840/4 rushing

32/253/1 receiving

a decent value right now if you can get him in the 7th or later

 

[Jon_Moore]

I love how people are ready to just throw the rookie on the field even if there's a talented back on the team. Do we even know if Stewart can pass protect yet? People are saying Williams isn't starting material, but he's averaged 4.6 yards per carry. Limited sample size, but consider:

The 3 times he's been given 20 carries, he's gotten 114 Yards, 82 Yards, 121 Yards. That's over 105 Yards per game when given 20 carries. Again, limited sample size, so I can't correctly conclude he IS starting material, but there's really NOTHING suggesting he is not.

Stewart is very talented, and is going to make an impact right away, but he's not going to make Williams a backup, and I doubt he's the lead guy this year.

If Delhomme is actually back, the passing game is lethal, and defenses have to watch Steve Smith, and I imagine that will be the defenses main focus, so whoever the back is should find plenty of room to run underneath. Their defense will keep them in games, so they'll be able to run instead of chuck pretty much all game long.

217 Rushes

1019 Yards

5 TDs

28 Receptions

210 Receiving Yards

2 TDs

 

[David Yudkin]

If Delhomme is actually back, the passing game is lethal, and defenses have to watch Steve Smith, and I imagine that will be the defenses main focus, so whoever the back is should find plenty of room to run underneath. Their defense will keep them in games, so they'll be able to run instead of chuck pretty much all game long.

I'm still perplexed by people thinking that the Panthers offense is something special . . . running,passing, or scoring.Over the past three seasons, Carolina has ranked:200726th in points scored29th in passing yards14th in rushing yards200627th in points scored15th in passing yards24th in rushing yards20058th in points scored17th in passing yards19th in rushing yardsOther than Smith, I don't see a lot of stud fantasy players coming from Carolina.

 

[Jon_Moore]

If Delhomme is actually back, the passing game is lethal, and defenses have to watch Steve Smith, and I imagine that will be the defenses main focus, so whoever the back is should find plenty of room to run underneath. Their defense will keep them in games, so they'll be able to run instead of chuck pretty much all game long.

I'm still perplexed by people thinking that the Panthers offense is something special . . . running,passing, or scoring.Over the past three seasons, Carolina has ranked:200726th in points scored29th in passing yards14th in rushing yards200627th in points scored15th in passing yards24th in rushing yards20058th in points scored17th in passing yards19th in rushing yardsOther than Smith, I don't see a lot of stud fantasy players coming from Carolina.

I just wonder where they finish last year if Delhomme is healthy the whole year. David Carr can do bad things to your rankings in the passing columns. I don't think anyone other than Smith comes out as a stud either, but the passing game is going to throw a lot of long TDs if everyone's healthy this year, IMO. Bringing in Hackett is huge, and I'm sure everyone remembers Muhammad in CAR.

 

[TLEF316]

I love how people are ready to just throw the rookie on the field even if there's a talented back on the team. Do we even know if Stewart can pass protect yet? People are saying Williams isn't starting material, but he's averaged 4.6 yards per carry. Limited sample size, but consider:The 3 times he's been given 20 carries, he's gotten 114 Yards, 82 Yards, 121 Yards. That's over 105 Yards per game when given 20 carries. Again, limited sample size, so I can't correctly conclude he IS starting material, but there's really NOTHING suggesting he is not. Stewart is very talented, and is going to make an impact right away, but he's not going to make Williams a backup, and I doubt he's the lead guy this year.If Delhomme is actually back, the passing game is lethal, and defenses have to watch Steve Smith, and I imagine that will be the defenses main focus, so whoever the back is should find plenty of room to run underneath. Their defense will keep them in games, so they'll be able to run instead of chuck pretty much all game long.217 Rushes1019 Yards5 TDs28 Receptions210 Receiving Yards2 TDs

For me, my lack of optimism for DW has nothing to do with Stewart. It's got everything to do with how the staff feels about Williams. For 3 years, Williams has outperformed foster when it comes to moving the football. He's been faster, quicker, healthier and more sure handed. However, he still hasn't been able to seize the job despite Foster being one of the worst 3-4 starting RB's in the league. It's become painfully obvious that the staff just doesn't like him. I just can't see any explanation other than that they have no faith in him as a pass blocker. Short of Fox being totally insane, there is no other reason why Williams shouldn't have buried foster on the bench back in 2006. Now they've drafted Stewart, who fits right into that Steven Davis mold that Carolina was so successful in. If he shows he can protect the passer, he's going to play over Williams.

 

[gianmarco]

I love how people are ready to just throw the rookie on the field even if there's a talented back on the team. Do we even know if Stewart can pass protect yet? People are saying Williams isn't starting material, but he's averaged 4.6 yards per carry. Limited sample size, but consider:

The 3 times he's been given 20 carries, he's gotten 114 Yards, 82 Yards, 121 Yards. That's over 105 Yards per game when given 20 carries. Again, limited sample size, so I can't correctly conclude he IS starting material, but there's really NOTHING suggesting he is not.

Stewart is very talented, and is going to make an impact right away, but he's not going to make Williams a backup, and I doubt he's the lead guy this year.

If Delhomme is actually back, the passing game is lethal, and defenses have to watch Steve Smith, and I imagine that will be the defenses main focus, so whoever the back is should find plenty of room to run underneath. Their defense will keep them in games, so they'll be able to run instead of chuck pretty much all game long.

217 Rushes

1019 Yards

5 TDs

28 Receptions

210 Receiving Yards

2 TDs

For me, my lack of optimism for DW has nothing to do with Stewart. It's got everything to do with how the staff feels about Williams. For 3 years, Williams has outperformed foster when it comes to moving the football. He's been faster, quicker, healthier and more sure handed. However, he still hasn't been able to seize the job despite Foster being one of the worst 3-4 starting RB's in the league. It's become painfully obvious that the staff just doesn't like him. I just can't see any explanation other than that they have no faith in him as a pass blocker. Short of Fox being totally insane, there is no other reason why Williams shouldn't have buried foster on the bench back in 2006.

Now they've drafted Stewart, who fits right into that Steven Davis mold that Carolina was so successful in. If he shows he can protect the passer, he's going to play over Williams.

It's only been 2 years. And I would argue that he did win the job when his workload increased during the last 4-5 games of the year and Foster got shipped out of town. Of course, they went and drafted Stewart soon after so who knows what they are thinking.

 

[TLEF316]

yeah, i meant 2 years. typo.

 

[CASS101]

The answer here is the dirty word. The phrase we all hate to hear....RBBC. Take a look at the last 3 Super Bowl winners and tell me if you notice a pattern with their running games. The NFL is a copy-cat league and you can see RBBC being implemented more and more throughout the league.

The fact that Fox stands by his veterans is an important key here as well. I think that Williams will get the majority of carries this year simply because of this fact. Williams productively takes over for Foster and Stewart takes Williams old roll. Whether that turns into a 50/50 split throughout the season depends on how the rookie Stewart adjusts to the league. If Stewart is the real deal and the O-line holds up, the rushing attempts could climb and both of these guys could be value picks. Hopefully pre-season will shed more light on the situation.

 

[shader]

I predict 1400 yards rushing and 8 td's for Deangelo.

I started looking at his numbers today and realized how much of a stud he might become. Last year he had 3 games in which he had 20+ carries. In two of the games he had over 100 yards and in the other had over 80.

I think Fox will give the starting job to Williams to start the season and Williams won't look back. Fox won't bench Deangelo if he's rolling off bigtime yards and I think that is exactly what will happen.

Picking Stewart was still a very smart move though. Why? Because the Panthers want to run the ball successfully. They can't take the chance of losing Williams to an injury and then having no one.

Stewart might be a stud in time. But Williams already has proven that he can rush for alot of yards and when given the job full-time, he's going to explode, imo.

He's the one guy that's being drafted late that has first round potential.