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Sorry, didn\'t mean you were offensive. I meant the post we were discussing and which I commented on. I was merely explaining motives for my little side comment which I added into my post.Once you read this please have a mod delete our little discussionn as it clutters the spotlight xD
only way Deangelo gets 285 carries is if Stewart gets hurt. I dont see 5.1 ypc at all. MJD's rookie year, he was at 5.7 ypc on 166 carries. 2nd year, it dropped all the way down to 4.6 with the same number of carries. 4.5-4.8 is where I expect Deangelo to be at.
Did Williams lose the starting job somehow and I missed it?Stewart is hurt right now. Did you miss that?
It actually looks like we may have awoken the thread with new viewpoints. So no harm done.As for DeAngelo, The starting five of the offensive line returns and there was about 15 starts lost by those starting five last year and no player played all 16 games so they didn't experience some abnormally healthy year. In the first half of the year last year, Stewart garnered 44% of the duos carries. In the second half of the year, Stewart garnered 37% of the duos carries. My feeling is that at most Stewart will stay around the 40% range and Williams will take about 60% of the carries.Last year the Panthers have 504 rushes and 434 pass plays. Since 24 of those rushes were Delhomme or McCown, that means the real ratio was 480 to 458 in playcalling. About 940 plays is actually about 60 or so short of the normal number of offensive plays in a typical season for an average offensive team. Heavy run teams like the Giants and Falcons both ran about 1020 offensive plays.The Panthers should inch towards 1000 offensive plays and their ratio of run to pass will probably still be in favor of the run but let's call it 50/50. So, the number of non-QB run plays should approach 500. Take out about 25 carries for end arounds, fullback dives, and end of game rushes and that leaves about 475 for Williams and Stewart. A 60/40 split would give Williams about 285 carries and the assumption is that his 22 catches won't budge much in this offense. At last year's rates per touch, 285 rushes would result in 1,581 yards added to about 125 passing yards, so 1,706 total.However, that should be considered his non-Stewart injury ceiling. Most backs that visit the 5.0+ ypc land do not stay long. So let's take a 4.8 ypc and that results in 1,368 yards.So, I say his healthy floor is 1,400 total yards. His RBBC ceiling is about 1,700 yards. But keep in mind his ceiling in the event of Stewart missing major time is over 2,000 yards.As for touchdowns, the Panthers had a 30 to 15 ratio in run to pass touchdowns. I would expect that to normalize closer to 50/50 this year. The two backs should see in the neigborhood of 20 touchdowns this year and let's say Williams sees about half of that since he proved Stewart doesn't have to be the goalline back.After all that, I still leave you with three healthy projections.Healthy floor - 1,400 total yards (1,300 run 100 receive) 10 touchdowns - 200 fantasy points (50% chance)RBBC ceiling - 1,700 total yards (1,580 run 120 receive) 12 touchdowns - 242 fantasy points (25% chance)Stewart injury ceiling - 2,000 total yards (1,800 run 200 receive) 18 touchdowns - 308 fantasy points (10% chance)That leaves a 15% chance I have no idea what I am talking about.
You dont have to get 285 carries or more if you're the starting RB on a team, especially if the other guy is just as talented as you are. DeAngelo got 270 last year, with JStew 180, and that was with a banged up Stewart. If Stew is healthy all year, and now in his 2nd year, I dont expect the same rush distribution. Thats why IMO 285 is projecting an injury to Stewart.Stewart is hurt now, that's correct, but it was also mentioned that he expects to be 100% by training camp.
What did DW show you last year that would bring you to think that Fox wont want to ride him just like he did last year when JS has already been injured twice in less than two seasons?
If you think that he rode him last year and got 270 carries, what is it you think will change this year?
I dont think much will change. I dont think Fox likes to change that much and from what I saw last year their running game was about as good as it gets. I am guessing Fox may go with the old stand by, if it ain't broken...
As I noted above, the Panthers did run a low number of offensive plays relative to the rest of the league. If they progress to the "normal" number of offensive plays, Williams and Stewart could both gain carries.
I agree with this. And thought you layed out the situation very succinctly.
You really see him having more carries and receptions than ever in his career? Do you realize that the season he even had 33 was when David Carr and Matt Moore were QBing, not Delhomme? You also see him maintaining his career YPC which was hoisted last year by ridiculous YPCs of 6.1 vs KC, 7.4 vs OAK, 8.6 vs DET, 9.8 vs a demolished TB, 7.3 vs DEN, and 7.1 vs NO, when 4 of those teams aren't even on his schedule this season?I just don't see much logic in the projections in this thread, with people expecting DA to put up even better stats. Guys, last year was a career year for him, there's no reason to expect him to do better. If he had taken the job in his second season, and put up a minimum of 1,168 yards, then exploded last season, I would agree that this season he might improve again, but it aint happening.
Historically this is a bad idea. Unless the strong second half is predicated on much greater opportunity, the likelihood is that the second half is the aberration, instead of the first half. We've seen this before with guys like Ryan Grant, and Kevan Barlow.Very few running backs who explode for the second half of a season maintain their production the following year.
I think you've got a few good points, but the logic you use here doesn't mean much. Here's why:Oakland allowed 4.7 YPC to it's opposing rushers. DW had 7.4.Detroit allowed 5.1 YPC to it's opposing rushers. DW had 8.6.Tampa allowed 4.3 YPC to it's opposing rushers. DW had 9.8.New Orleans allowed 4.2 YPC to it's opposing rushers. DW had 7.1.So, one could conclude from looking at the numbers that DW is far better than the other RBs that went against those teams. To further the point, the average YPC allowed by those teams would decrease if you removed DW's rushes from the average.Just a different way of looking at the same data.
Except you are looking at stats from a wide angle lens, instead of in context. You're also ignoring that DA will not play most DET and OAK again this season. Also, his high YPC was a product of a couple long runs, which while still did happen, cannot reasonably be predicted to happen again.
I was CLEARLY talking about rushing numbers... do you see ANY allusion to receptions in that at all? No.
Receiving is barely part of DA's game at all... it's not even worth projecting, because there's not real way to project his receptions, or receiving TDs.
To prove what point? That his second half against some weak defense was better than his first, and not a good indicator of future succes? Yeah, I really needed to twist stats to prove that... you got me buddy
I have played in PPR leagues, though I don't prefer them, and I don't project for them typicallyProjecting receiving TDs for a RB that sees less than 2 passes per game, is risky, to say the least. Last season DA doubled his career total receiving TDs... that tells you how unrealistic it is to expect a certain number from him, or to count on them in your projections. It is just as likely that he gets 0 as it is for him to get 2. He's not involved much in the passing game, so while you do get points for them, counting on them in your projections is merely a way to try to make him look more valuable than he likely will be.
Yes, because I actually read... and the very first post says that the FBGs request you project receptions for RBs
The point he scored 3 TD in the 1st half prorated to 6 over a season, cause you know damn well 6 sounds ALOT worse than 10.To prove what point? That his second half against some weak defense was better than his first, and not a good indicator of future succes? Yeah, I really needed to twist stats to prove that... you got me buddy
You crack me up. So dramatic. Like he had 6 career TD receptions over a 5 year career and then BAM he goes for 12 in a season. Oh and BTW you are wrong. He had 2 career receiving TD going into 08. So he matched his career total of a whopping two, not doubled it.
That's not very excellent.
I disagree. The context is how DeAngelo Williams did compared to his contemporaries versus these defenses. Out of context would be to compare how he did against these defenses versus Turner against the Vikings. That's out of context. This is quite in context.
I said you had a few good points. One of them was that he has a tougher schedule this year. That's why I isolated my post to be specifically about how he did against poor run defenses, and why it was a poor barometer of his performance/ability.
This is really not even worth responding to, because I know you know how flawed an argument it is. C'mon, switz. You know better.
So here's the question... did Williams score 2 more receiving TDs in the second half of the season? Did he score ANY receiving TDs in the second half of last season?The point he scored 3 TD in the 1st half prorated to 6 over a season, cause you know damn well 6 sounds ALOT worse than 10.To prove what point? That his second half against some weak defense was better than his first, and not a good indicator of future succes? Yeah, I really needed to twist stats to prove that... you got me buddy
Nice try... after the season he had 4 receiving TDs... twice his career total prior to the season.
Does it matter? I wouldn't dare project that seeing how risky and unrealistic they are.
If you are going to take an 8 game stretch and prorate it over a 16 game season (as questionable a logic as that may be) you need to take all statistics that score you points into account.
Your wording is suspect. All he did was score 2 recTD's. Is it significant if a RB has 1 recTD and then has 4 the following year. Do we really need to say he QUADRUPLED his career total?..Only if you are trying to make it sound like a fluke, and i'm having a hard time believe 2 redTd's are a fluke.
So you are arguing that his scoring 2 TDs in the first half of the season, was a good indicator that he'd score more the rest of the season. But he didn't score more... exactly.Brian Westbrook, Steven Jackson, LT, Reggie Bush, Matt Forte, Marion Barber scoring receiving TDs is not a fluke.Michael Turner, DeAngelo Williams, Jamal Lewis, Deuce McAllister and other RBs rarely used in the passing game scoring TDs is a fluke.
I'm not sure how to make this ANY clearer... I was talking about rushing numbers... his receiving numbers have NOTHING TO DO with his rushing numbers. His receiving numbers had VERY LITTLE IMPACT on his overall numbers... There's nothing disingenuous about it at all... if he had 1 pass attempt for a TD, should I have included that in prorating? No, because it's COMPLETELY and TOTALLY UNRELATED to his rushing numbers.
