Player Spotlight: Donald Driver (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Donald Driver, WR, Green Bay Packers

Player Page Link: Donald Driver Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Driver had a bit of an off year last season posting only 2 TD...however Driver is one of those veteran WR that isn't sexy but produces good solid stats for his owners. most seasons you can count on about 80+ catches, 1,100+ yds, and about 6-8 TD. I look for him to bounce back closer to what he averages. Whether it is Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre, Driver is a solid NFL WR and will do well as he is likely leaving GB at the ned of the season when his contract runs out. He will showcase himself so he can sign a nice contract somewhere in the off season.

72/1,000/6 TD

 

[The Man with the Plan]

The qb turmoil in Green Bay has me a little concerned but Driver should still be a good but not great receiver for the Packers and fantasy teams in 2008.

 

[Moe Green]

I think he'll produce better than expected compared to last season's disappointment. He'll be a solid WR3, with potential for WR2 production.

 

[zamboni]

The qb turmoil in Green Bay has me a little concerned but Driver should still be a good but not great receiver for the Packers and fantasy teams in 2008.

I agree.For him to get anywhere near his 80-1100-6 numbers or so would likely entail Rodgers to put up numbers in line with Favre and make Driver his clear go-to guy.I'm not sold on either factor by any stretch, and I think his numbers suffer as a result. Respectable, but not unlike lots of WRs you could get out there.65-900-5

 

[H.K.]

Driver's averages for the past three seasons:

146 targets (according to PFW he is ranked fifth in the NFL among WR's based on 3 year avg.)

87 receptions

1,188 yards receiving

5 TD's

Current ADP: 26th among WR's

Losing Favre will hurt badly (obviously), however, the same coaching staff and offensive scheme focused on getting Driver the ball are still in tact.

With an inexperienced and fragile Rodgers behind center, the Packers will throw to a lot more of the shorter routes run by the Z receiver than Favre did last year. Therefore, it will help Driver get targets more similar to those he saw in 2006 (171), than he did in 2007 (122).

Driver is the unquestioned primary receiver in GB and represents exceptional value in PPR leagues this season.

Targets: 152

Receptions: 84

Yards: 1,102

TD's: 5

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Donald Driver has never been a huge reception guy. He's never been a huge TD guy, never achieving double digit Td's in a single season. However, he's always had great hands and regardless of who's QBing in GB, Driver will still get his. The veteran receiver may have lost a little step and has a little more competition opposite him now, but Driver will still produce numbers that make him a solid selection in this year's draft.

79 receptions for 1000 yards and 6 td's

 

[the spanker]

Driver's averages for the past three seasons:146 targets (according to PFW he is ranked fifth in the NFL among WR's based on 3 year avg.)87 receptions1,188 yards receiving5 TD'sCurrent ADP: 26th among WR'sLosing Favre will hurt badly (obviously), however, the same coaching staff and offensive scheme focused on getting Driver the ball are still in tact.With an inexperienced and fragile Rodgers behind center, the Packers will throw a lot more of the shorter routes run by the Z receiver than Favre did last year. Therefore, it will help Driver get targets similar to those he saw in 2006 (171), than he did in 2007 (122). Driver is the unquestioned primary receiver in GB and represents exceptional value in PPR leagues this season. Targets: 152Receptions: 84Yards: 1,102TD's: 5

In PPR leagues based on your projection, in what round does exceptional value begin?

 

[perry147]

Either with his advancing age or with Greg Jennings really emerging last year Donald Driver is slipping out of the elite of fantasy WR range that he has been over the past several seasons. In seasons past savy fantasy owners drafted Driver in later rounds and still got WR1 production. Last year Driver slipped and although he had decent yardage numbers (1048) and had 82 catches the TD's were reduced down to two. I think Driver can still have a fantasy impact but most likely is better suited as a WR3 with WR2 upside. The Favre retirement fiasco is continueing as of this time and if Favre does return for one last season (and not be a backup) I would bump the numbers up a bit. My predictions are:

875 Yards

4 TDs

65 catches

 

[Tau837]

Driver's averages for the past three seasons:146 targets (according to PFW he is ranked fifth in the NFL among WR's based on 3 year avg.)87 receptions1,188 yards receiving5 TD'sCurrent ADP: 26th among WR'sLosing Favre will hurt badly (obviously), however, the same coaching staff and offensive scheme focused on getting Driver the ball are still in tact.With an inexperienced and fragile Rodgers behind center, the Packers will throw to a lot more of the shorter routes run by the Z receiver than Favre did last year. Therefore, it will help Driver get targets more similar to those he saw in 2006 (171), than he did in 2007 (122). Driver is the unquestioned primary receiver in GB and represents exceptional value in PPR leagues this season. Targets: 152Receptions: 84Yards: 1,102TD's: 5

You posted his three year averages, but didn't say exactly how you used them in determining your projection... given that your projection is nearly an exact match to those averages, I assume they influenced your thinking. The thing is, things have changed a lot in those 3 years, even aside from the possible switch from Favre to Rodgers:1. Driver was 30 in 2005, when that 3 year stretch began. He is obviously now a few years older.2. The WRs other than Driver are better now than they were throughout this stretch.2a. In 2005, the first year of this 3 year stretch, Javon Walker was injured in the first game of the season, meaning Green Bay was undermanned at WR all season (Chatman and Ferguson became the #2 and #3 WRs). Driver was targeted 9.1 times per game, and received 23.3% of the total targets. The next highest player was Chatman with 13.8% of the total targets.2b. In 2006, Jennings was a rookie. He and Ruvell Martin were the only 2 WRs besides Driver to catch as many as 10 passes. Driver was targeted 10.7 times per game, and received 27.2% of the total targets. The next highest player was Jennings with 16.7% of the total targets.2c. In 2007, Driver's targets dropped to 8.1 per game, and he received 21.1% of the targets. Still very good target numbers, but an obvious dropoff from the previous years. This was partly because of the emergence of Jennings and James Jones as quality targets. In 2005, Driver had 145 targets and the next 2 WRs combined for 143. In 2006, Driver had 171 targets and the next 2 WRs combined for 148 targets. Last year, Driver had 122 targets, and the next 2 WRs combined for 164. And now they have Jordy Nelson to add to the mix.3. Green Bay attempted 623 passes in 2005 and 628 in 2006. But they only attempted 578 in 2007. IMO this was largely due to the improved effectiveness of the running game, which was well below average in 2005 and 2006. In the first 8 games of 2007, Green Bay attempted 308 passes, similar to the pace of the previous 2 seasons. But in the last 8 games, as Ryan Grant emerged, that dropped to 270 attempts. It wasn't about the cold - in 2005 and 2006 they attempted 326 and 316 passes, respectively in their last 8 games. This trend - lower attempts than in previous years - should continue, particularly if they do go with Rodgers.IMO all of these things suggest that Driver will continue the downward trend that he began last year. If Favre plays, I can see 76/990/5. If he doesn't, I think Driver will be a bit lower, perhaps 70/875/3.

 

[H.K.]

In PPR leagues based on your projection, in what round does exceptional value begin?

Interesting question, IMHO, exceptional value doesn't begin in any specific round, because value is determined by where/how a player performed worthy of being selected. Also, there are many unknown variables (league size, format, rules, quality of competition, etc.) to answer your question in a vacuum with generic regards to "what round selected does exceptional value begin?". My projection for Driver has him performing between WR15-18 based on the past three years data in the PPR format I used. Players expected to perform at that level usually go three or four rounds sooner than where Driver is currently going. To me, that is exceptional value, to you or others, it may not be.OTOH, some people might argue exceptional value can be found in round one based on how many times an early selection gets hurt or busts...but this type of discussion will get things off track with regards to Driver. Might be a good idea to start a new thread on the topic, though. I know spotlight threads should be focused on the player, so my apologies to the board for the hijack in answering the question.

 

[Buckna]

33 year old WR that just lost his hall of fame QB and has two emerging, young WR's behind him. That same HOF QB is now causing major headaches for the team. Target's, TD's and yards per rec dropped precipitously last year.

70 catches

840 yards

4 TD's

1 last year of fantasy relevance, but likely his name draw will cause him to go too high for my taste.

 

[majarrek]

Where Driver really kills an owner is in leagues which give bonuses for 100+yd games and not receptions. He's been on a downward trend lately. He can still take one 80 yds, as evidenced by his catch and run in the NFC Championship game last year, but those moments are rare. Plus, Greg Jennings is emerging, James Jones is still in the mix, and now they drafted another promissing rookie this year - Jordy Nelson. If you're in a PPR league, he'll provide you with more of a benefit. But as much as I like this guy as a leader, my guess is he's a 6rec/60yd/0.5td a game player this year.

 

[rzrback77]

At first glance, the numbers look really good for Donald Driver. Consider the last four seasons

04- 16 gms 134 targ 84 rec 1208 yds 14.4 ypc 9 TDs WR 10

05- 16 gms 145 targ 86 rec 1221 yds 14.2 ypc 5 TDs WR 13

06- 16 gms 171 targ 92 rec 1295 yds 14.1 ypc 8 TDs WR 5

07- 15 gms 122 targ 82 rec 1048 yds 12.8 ypc 2 TDs WR 30

Add in the fact that his current ADP is WR 26 and 73 overall, that looks like a sizeable value pick. The problems are the plethora of receiving options that the Packers have. Jennings, James Jones, Donald Lee, and rookie Jordy Nelson. Ryan Grant and Brandon Jackson are also capable receivers out of the backfield. And that is not even counting the circus currently going on in Green Bay. If Favre stays in the picture at Green Bay and the strife continues and especially if the younger WRs look good in preseason, Driver could drop considerably from his current relatively high ADP. If you are a believer regardless of the QB and even if the younger guys stand out in preseason, he could bring much better value. I just don't see him getting the opportunities with all the options available.

Donald Driver 100 targets 61 catches 732 yards 12.0 ypc and 3 TDs

 

[BigRed]

Either with his advancing age or with Greg Jennings really emerging last year Donald Driver is slipping out of the elite of fantasy WR range that he has been over the past several seasons. In seasons past savy fantasy owners drafted Driver in later rounds and still got WR1 production. Last year Driver slipped and although he had decent yardage numbers (1048) and had 82 catches the TD's were reduced down to two. I think Driver can still have a fantasy impact but most likely is better suited as a WR3 with WR2 upside. The Favre retirement fiasco is continueing as of this time and if Favre does return for one last season (and not be a backup) I would bump the numbers up a bit. My predictions are:

875 Yards

4 TDs

65 catches

somebody gets it. The "Driver = value" days are gone. Pass

 

[Jon_Moore]

In the last 4 years, he's gotten at least 82 catches, at least 1048 Yards. The three seasons prior to 2007, he got at least 84 catches, 1208 Yards and 5 tds. He's a good receiver to have around, and could finish as a borderline WR1. Rodgers is a downgrade, but with his physical ability, route running and hands, he'll still find a way to get 80 catches for 1,000 Yards.

The passing offense will still be one of the best, and defenses will focus more so on Greg Jennings, and maybe even Ryan Grant

84 Receptions

1126 Yards

6 TDS

 

[DenverBroncos]

Where Driver really kills an owner is in leagues which give bonuses for 100+yd games and not receptions. He's been on a downward trend lately. He can still take one 80 yds, as evidenced by his catch and run in the NFC Championship game last year, but those moments are rare. Plus, Greg Jennings is emerging, James Jones is still in the mix, and now they drafted another promissing rookie this year - Jordy Nelson. If you're in a PPR league, he'll provide you with more of a benefit. But as much as I like this guy as a leader, my guess is he's a 6rec/60yd/0.5td a game player this year.

So you're down on the dude, but he's still going to get 96 receptions, 960 yard and 8 TD's, WOW, sign me up!!!

 

[BigRed]

The passing offense will still be one of the best,

Because.........I like Rogers, but he isn't going to dazzle anyone right out of the gate, so to speak. So a WR2 (yes, he is now WR2, or maybe "1b" at best) on a team with an unproven QB who will almost certainly be a notable step down this year at least and a likely bigger focus on the run game........I say he's lucky to crack 1000 or get 6 TDs and likely won't.

 

[pollardsvision]

i see rodgers' potential impact on driver a little differently than most here.

i certainly don't see driver having anything close to a career year, but i think rodgers' impact hurts jennings more than driver.

it hurts driver, but i assume it's the deep passing game (jennings) that'll take the biggest hit.

the packers will still throw the ball, but i assume it'll be more conservatively, with driver acting as a security blanket for a young QB.

i assume mike mccarthy doesn't play fantasy football, so he still views driver as the primary WR on that team. if that's the case, i assume most of the passing plays called will have driver as the 1st read.

on deep passing plays, however, i doubt rodgers will hesistate to check down to driver on a shorter route. in his situation, i'd think he'd shy away from racking INT's that could come from bombing away.

2 of the things are hardest for a young QB to develop point to bad news for jennings (and not necessarily for driver):

1-the ability to progress through reads

2-consistency with the deep pass

because of this, i don't see driver's reception totals really decreasing and there's some upside with the reception total. obviously, driver's YPC won't be anything special and should continue it's decline.

i've got driver down for 80 catches (with a chance for more), 920 yards, 5 TD's.

based on how i see the situation, i don't see much chance for driver to go below that, so those numbers are more valueable than they look.

jennings, on the other hand, has major bust potential.

 

[BigRed]

Well now I'm wondering: how many of Jenning's TDs were of the long bomb variety (ie not including shorter passes that he got a lot of YAC on)?

 

[pollardsvision]

Well now I'm wondering: how many of Jenning's TDs were of the long bomb variety (ie not including shorter passes that he got a lot of YAC on)?

i don't have that info handy (i'm sure someone else does), but his YPC was 17.4 and he caught a pass of 40+ yards in 7 of the 13 games he played last year. 4 of this TD's came on balls thrown 30+ yards down the field (these plays also accounted for exactly 300 of his yards).

 

[BigRed]

Yeah but if those are mostly shorter/medium passes that Jennings is making a lot of yds on his own with, that's very different. Plus Jenngings is coming into his own while Driver is no spring chicken.

 

[gheemony]

70-1000-6

I don't think the offense suffers much with Rodgers instead of Favre. I think the team passing #s should stay about the same. He's the critical, chain-mover, so his targets should stay the same. Drop the projections a bit because of age. But the key is that 2 TDs last year for the given number of targets and receptions was incredibly unlucky. I think the luck evens out this year and TDs come back.

You can draft him as a WR3, and I think he's a good bet for finishing as WR2, with upside to low end WR1 if Jennings gets hurt, Jones keeps fumbling, etc.

I think he's a really good value this year. You can get him cheap, so if he falls off the cliff, the price is low. But there's a good chance that he's in your starting lineup most weeks if you play in a start 3 WR league.

I suspect that he'll end up on most of my teams this year.

 

[H.K.]

70-1000-6

I don't think the offense suffers much with Rodgers instead of Favre. I think the team passing #s should stay about the same. He's the critical, chain-mover, so his targets should stay the same. Drop the projections a bit because of age. But the key is that 2 TDs last year for the given number of targets and receptions was incredibly unlucky. I think the luck evens out this year and TDs come back.

You can draft him as a WR3, and I think he's a good bet for finishing as WR2, with upside to low end WR1 if Jennings gets hurt, Jones keeps fumbling, etc.

I think he's a really good value this year. You can get him cheap, so if he falls off the cliff, the price is low. But there's a good chance that he's in your starting lineup most weeks if you play in a start 3 WR league.

I suspect that he'll end up on most of my teams this year.

I find this "age" issue pretty interesting.Terrell Owens will be 36 by the end of the season and he is a consensus Top 5 WR, yet Driver is on a steep decline at 33.

As long as we are on the topic, here is how Owens and and Driver's regular season totals compare over the past six years since Driver became a starter in 2002:

OWENS: 470 receptions for 6,900 yards

DRIVER: 466 receptions for 6,457 yards

These numbers are so close because Owens hasn't been able to stay on the field...but people are worried about Driver hitting the wall. Perception is an interesting thing.

 

[BigRed]

Yeah, like perceiving Driver and Owens as equal talents on teams who's offenses are about equal too.

 

[cstu]

70-1000-6

I don't think the offense suffers much with Rodgers instead of Favre. I think the team passing #s should stay about the same. He's the critical, chain-mover, so his targets should stay the same. Drop the projections a bit because of age. But the key is that 2 TDs last year for the given number of targets and receptions was incredibly unlucky. I think the luck evens out this year and TDs come back.

You can draft him as a WR3, and I think he's a good bet for finishing as WR2, with upside to low end WR1 if Jennings gets hurt, Jones keeps fumbling, etc.

I think he's a really good value this year. You can get him cheap, so if he falls off the cliff, the price is low. But there's a good chance that he's in your starting lineup most weeks if you play in a start 3 WR league.

I suspect that he'll end up on most of my teams this year.

Great value IMO. He's certainly not going to win a league on his own but at his ADP you are getting steady production, esp. in PPR, at a cheap price.

 

[perry147]

70-1000-6

I don't think the offense suffers much with Rodgers instead of Favre. I think the team passing #s should stay about the same. He's the critical, chain-mover, so his targets should stay the same. Drop the projections a bit because of age. But the key is that 2 TDs last year for the given number of targets and receptions was incredibly unlucky. I think the luck evens out this year and TDs come back.

You can draft him as a WR3, and I think he's a good bet for finishing as WR2, with upside to low end WR1 if Jennings gets hurt, Jones keeps fumbling, etc.

I think he's a really good value this year. You can get him cheap, so if he falls off the cliff, the price is low. But there's a good chance that he's in your starting lineup most weeks if you play in a start 3 WR league.

I suspect that he'll end up on most of my teams this year.

I find this "age" issue pretty interesting.Terrell Owens will be 36 by the end of the season and he is a consensus Top 5 WR, yet Driver is on a steep decline at 33.

As long as we are on the topic, here is how Owens and and Driver's regular season totals compare over the past six years since Driver became a starter in 2002:

OWENS: 470 receptions for 6,900 yards

DRIVER: 466 receptions for 6,457 yards

These numbers are so close because Owens hasn't been able to stay on the field...but people are worried about Driver hitting the wall. Perception is an interesting thing.

Interesting but TO has never had a 2 TD year EVER.TO also has never had anyone push him out of the #1 spot( not counting JR); Jennings is at this point a better WR.

The trump card is of course Favre.

 

[BigRed]

Great value IMO. He's certainly not going to win a league on his own but at his ADP you are getting steady production, esp. in PPR, at a cheap price.

Yep - and IMO people tend to under-value a "steady" guy in the late round because they're always doing that swing-for-the-fences thing. Sometimes that's good, but sometimes I think there's a lot to be said for more likely but less flashy production. Go ahead and draft the flashy rook WRs or unproven whatevers - I'll lean to the Coles and Driver types most days.

 

[gheemony]

70-1000-6

I don't think the offense suffers much with Rodgers instead of Favre. I think the team passing #s should stay about the same. He's the critical, chain-mover, so his targets should stay the same. Drop the projections a bit because of age. But the key is that 2 TDs last year for the given number of targets and receptions was incredibly unlucky. I think the luck evens out this year and TDs come back.

You can draft him as a WR3, and I think he's a good bet for finishing as WR2, with upside to low end WR1 if Jennings gets hurt, Jones keeps fumbling, etc.

I think he's a really good value this year. You can get him cheap, so if he falls off the cliff, the price is low. But there's a good chance that he's in your starting lineup most weeks if you play in a start 3 WR league.

I suspect that he'll end up on most of my teams this year.

I find this "age" issue pretty interesting.Terrell Owens will be 36 by the end of the season and he is a consensus Top 5 WR, yet Driver is on a steep decline at 33.

As long as we are on the topic, here is how Owens and and Driver's regular season totals compare over the past six years since Driver became a starter in 2002:

OWENS: 470 receptions for 6,900 yards

DRIVER: 466 receptions for 6,457 yards

These numbers are so close because Owens hasn't been able to stay on the field...but people are worried about Driver hitting the wall. Perception is an interesting thing.

I'm not saying that he absolutely, 100% will decline because of age. But it is probable that he will. I base this on statistical studies by Doug Drinen, Football Outsiders, and others. Couch Potato has a nice formula for calculating Quality Years Remaining. It's a guide for when players will decline, but not a certainty. There will always be players like TO that defy the typical outcome. TO as an example doesn't tell me anything about Driver; it does tell me that what TO is doing is phenomenal. But will it last? And I think many project TO to decline from last season due to age; but he's still top 5 because he's SO good. Lastly, keep in mind that Driver did have aches and pains last year, so there is more reason to think he is beginning to feel the affects of age.