Player Spotlight: Donald Driver (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Donald Driver, WR, Green Bay Packers

Player Page Link: Donald Driver Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[rzrback77]

Donald Driver is a tough projection in 09. He has taken great care of his body and always gives his all, but he enters the season at age 34 and with a couple of good young WRs on his heels. On the other hand, he has five straight seasons over of 1,000 yards with 29 TDs over that stretch. He has an ADP of WR36 and 94 overall though and he has finished as the WR30 and WR23 in the last two seasons. He also has an outstanding QB.

I think it comes down to how well you consider the capabilities of Jordy Nelson and James Jones. If both of them are worked into the line-up and the Packers use a rotation system, then Driver's productivity will significantly decrease. If he remains the obvious #2 WR, then I think he provides nice value where you get him. Kind of risky though, especially if you value one or the other of Nelson and Jones. I think this is the year that the youth get worked in and Driver's targets drop. I also think that it will be his last year in Green Bay and maybe the NFL.

Donald Driver 75 targets 52 catches 68% 624 yards 12.0 ypc 3 TDs

 

[Jason Wood]

There are always three or four veteran receivers that, no matter how consistent, are ALWAYS discounted. They usually make great picks in redraft leagues as a result. Driver had a string of 1100-1200 yard, 75+ catch seasons and yet seemingly every year his consensus ADP would end up out of the Top 25.

Driver has had five consecutive 1,000 yard seasons, yet has an ADP of 36. Does not compute. This for a team with a 4,000-yard passer and an established offensive system that isn't going to stop throwing the ball. Has Driver been superseded by Greg Jennings? Of course, but that doesn't mean Driver is getting his just desserts. Last year he finished WR23 and importantly averaged 13.7 yards per catch, in line with his career average. This isn't a case of an aging veteran hanging on with guile, he's still making plays all over the field.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

article on Green Bay WRs

Jordy Nelson wasn’t a star of the Green Bay Packers’ offseason as far as making the attention-grabbing play.

But in his own way, the second-year receiver still took as big a step from last year as almost anyone on the roster. Running pass routes, he looked far more sure of himself and his footwork. He caught the ball well, and most notably, he got open enough that quarterback Aaron Rodgers seemed to start looking for him.

“(Nelson) does some things that seem very natural,” receivers coach Jimmy Robinson said. “They don’t make you think, ‘Boy, this guy is really something,’ but he’s just there every single day, he’s just consistent. The biggest thing with Jordy is he catches the ball when you throw it to him, he doesn’t make mistakes, he doesn’t run the wrong route, he knows what he’s doing and if he does make a mistake, he doesn’t ever repeat the mistake.”

Nelson’s emerging skill as a possession receiver is one of the reasons the Packers could have one of the deeper receiving corps in the NFL this season. Not only do they field a strong starting duo in rising star Greg Jennings and ageless Donald Driver, but they have two possible No. 3-caliber receivers with Nelson and third-year pro James Jones, who could end up sharing that role with playing time based in part on opponent and individual matchups.

General Manager Ted Thompson hasn’t skimped when it came to building this group – he used three high draft picks in five years to augment Driver: a second-rounder on Jennings in 2006, a third-rounder on Jones in ’07 and an early second-rounder on Nelson last year.

Jennings quickly blossomed into the best of the group, and has become one of the NFL’s top receivers and the Packers’ most dynamic player on offense. In the last two seasons combined he’s caught 21 touchdown passes, which ranks fourth in the NFL over that time, and averaged 16.6 yards per catch, which is most in the league among players with at least 100 receptions in those two years.

That earned him a contract extension this offseason that includes about $16 million guaranteed and averages anywhere from $6.9 million to $7.6 million over the next four years, depending on incentives he reaches. And at age 26 Jennings should be hitting his prime at a position that often takes players a few years to master.

“There’s no reason why Greg in the next three or four years shouldn’t be every bit as good or better than he’s been the first three years,” Robinson said.

Jones, in the meantime, showed promise as a surprise third-round pick in ’07, though last year he failed to build on that, blunted by the physical and mental hurdles of a sprained knee in training camp that led to a diminished role (20 receptions, 13.7-yard average).

At 6-1, Jones appealed to the Packers because his large frame provided a big, strong target over the middle, and last year he added to that by bulking up to 220 pounds from his rookie playing weight of 207 pounds. In part because of the posterior-cruciate ligament injury in his right knee last training camp, though, he and the coaching staff decided he was better off at the lighter weight, so this offseason he went back down to 208 pounds.

“The main thing is he’s over the injury and looks like he’s back to himself,” Robinson said. “He’s a little lighter and seems to be moving a little faster, quicker, more explosively. He’s had a solid spring. Glad to see him back to the way we remember him.”

Jones’ injury last season opened the door for Nelson to share time as the No. 3 receiver, and Nelson’s strong offseason suggests he’ll build on his relatively modest numbers (33 receptions, 11.1-yard average) as a possession-type receiver. Rodgers seemed to look to him more often as the offseason practices went on, especially when plays broke down and Rodgers broke the pocket.

“You love guys you can count on,” Robinson said. “You can put (Nelson) in anywhere and he knows what to do. If I was to look at the guy with maybe the least mistakes (this offseason), the fewest drops, it might be him.”

Eventually Jones or Nelson will replace Driver in the starting lineup, but for now the 34-year-old is looking like a physical wonder. He has caught at least 80 passes each of the last five seasons, and though he doesn’t figure to be much of a deep threat at this stage in his career, this offseason Driver still showed the springy legs of a younger player.

“He’s genetically gifted is maybe a way of putting it,” Robinson said. “Maybe it’s his body structure, bone structure, all those things, combined with a tremendous work ethic. He doesn’t relax, he trains, works his butt off. He works out twice a day once he gets back into training, which is early in the offseason. He has a tremendous work ethic combined with a young body.”

Another pass catcher the Packers will keep a close eye on in camp is second-year tight end Jermichael Finley, who if he matures quickly could bring a new dimension to the offense as a big receiving threat down the middle seam.

The fourth-round pick from last year is a naturally fluid runner and receiver for a big man (6-5, 247), and his play in unpadded practices this offseason suggested he might push Donald Lee for the starting job. But at only age 22, Finley will need a sustained training camp to win the coaching staff’s trust after his slow-growth rookie season (six catches, 9.3-yard average).

q

 

[bcr8f]

Last year I remember 2 plays(there may be more) where Driver was wide open and Rodgers missed him deep. He can still go deep on occasion and keeps himself in great shape. Nelson will probably be the possession receiver more than Driver. I see about 1200 yards and 6 TD's this season.

 

[sholditch]

I'd say 1050 and 5

 

[brutha]

Driver is kind of a sneaky late play IMO. I would not be at all surprised if he faded into that 50/700 range but he still has a real chance for at least close to last year's numbers.