Player Spotlight: Donovan McNabb (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia Eagles

Player Page Link: Donovan McNabb Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[shadyridr]

McNabb was an absolute stud last year. He has been a stud almost every year. But as has been the norm, he seems to suffer from a season ending surgery every year. Do I think McNabb can put up stud numbers again this year? Of course I do. Would I draft him early? Of course not. There is no reason to. There are about 7-8 QBs that can put up better or at maybe slightly worse numbers than McNabb but without the injury risk. I also think Reid learned that he should run the ball more with their success late last year so I dont quite expect the passing attempts McNabb has put up in the past. Finally, I expect him to barely run this year due to his knee injuries. Remember ACL injuries are serious. Culpepper was horrendous coming back last year and Palmer even had a shaky 1st half of the season. I have McNabb ranked as QB#10 and that seems about right. But if you draft you MUST draft a good backup.

For my projections Im assuming 16 games:

3800 yds, 26 tds, 12 ints, 0 rush yds, 1 td

 

[TheLastDispatch]

If you're assuming 16 games shady I think your TD projection is low.

4000/30/14

180/2

 

[LHUCKS]

:valuecity:

will post projections later this week

 

[az_prof]

4224/30TD/11INT/120 yards rushing/1TD

I get this by calculating his average yards per game and then correcting for 16 games. The TDs and INTs I figured by looking at last three years and correcting for games played over 16 games. I figured less for running as I expect he will be more cautious.

Basically, if he stays healthy, based upon last three years of production this seems very likely. Offensively, I like the addition of Curtis as a weapon and Brown should be improved with another year of experience.

 

[shadyridr]

If you're assuming 16 games shady I think your TD projection is low.4000/30/14180/2

I have Brown at 8, Curtis at 5, Westbook at 4, Smith at 4, figure random receivers catch aboout 5 = 26. Ill bump up to 26. Basically I think Philly will be a bit more conservative this year.

 

[The Kansas Comet]

Att: 525 Completions: 304 Yds: 4095 TD's: 28 Int: 15 Rush Yds: 160 TD's: 2

I think the receiving corps will be better this season with the addition of Curtis more than offsetting the loss of Stallworth (and his hammy) along with another year of experience in the system for Brown and Baskett. His strength of schedule is very nice, with a good first 5 match ups (giving him sell high potential if his injury history makes one nervous, as it should) and nice playoff schedule as well. I do think Philly will try to run more this year, so I feel I've been relatively conservative with McNabb's numbers for a 16 game season.

I had him last season and while the bitterness of his injury still lingers, I am sure I'll be drawn to him once again (though I won't trade my best backup QB this year) as I can't ignore his productivity when healthy. Hopefully the rest of my league is scared off by his injury history and lets him slide farther than his current ADP.

 

[rzrback77]

Donovan McNabb is this year's poster child for boom or bust. In my opinion there are three guys with opportunity to be QB #1, P Manning, Palmer, and McNabb. However, McNabb is coming off knee surgery to repair a torn ACL. He was injured November 19th and had the surgery November 28th. Having the surgery then gives McNabb nine months until the 07 season begins. He practiced some in June and reportedly looked good, however there is a significant difference between looking good in limited action and playing in the NFL.

He will slip some in drafts as some will question his ability to return to form in his return less than a year after the surgery. It is definitely a situation to monitor closely when pre-season practice begins in a few weeks. McNabb will probably be drafted earlier than my risk tolerance will aloow, but he could offer significant value since if he plays, he could contend for top QB honors and will likely be drafted in the QB 6 to QB 10 range.

It should be pointed out that he has played in only 19 games over the past two seasons and only once since 2001 has he played all 16 games.

Donovan McNabb 260 completions in 480 attempts (60.9%) for 3360 yards 22 TDs and 8 ints 20 rushes for 66 yards and 1 TD

 

[SSOG]

There are about 7-8 QBs that can put up better or at maybe slightly worse numbers than McNabb but without the injury risk.

There may be 7-8 QBs who can put up comparable numbers to McNabb if he misses time with injury, but there's only one QB who can put up numbers comparable to McNabb + whatever backup QB you start in the games he misses, and that QB's name begins with a "P" and ends with an "eyton Manning".In 2006, the 24th best QB in terms of points per game was Rex Grossman with 14.49. If you assume that you started a Rex Grossman type (which, technically speaking, should be the worst QB in the "backup QB tier") in the games that McNabb missed, you would have gotten 325 fantasy points from your QB position. Repeat the process with 2005 and starting McNabb + Worst Backup would net you 294 fantasy points. Peyton Manning, during those two seasons, scored 362 and 294 points. This means that even if you have the worst backup QB in the league, McNabb will still net you production comparable to Peyton Manning at a fraction of the cost.Using even this basic courtesy (McNabb + Worst Backup), his scores for every season since his rookie year are: 325, 294, 365, 267, 345, 310, and 338. That's over 300 points in 5 out of 7 seasons (and in one of those seasons, QB scoring as a whole was down across the league and his score still would have ranked him 3rd). If you have a better backup than "Worst Backup", the scores just get even higher. This is extremely consistent, extremely studly production no matter HOW you slice it.This isn't to say that McNabb isn't without concerns. For one, this is the first time there are questions about his health entering the season. For another, it's hard to count on him being around in the playoffs. With that said, there probably isn't another QB in all of fantasy football more likely to get you into the playoffs in the first place than Donovan McNabb.

 

[dgreen]

0 rush yds, 1 td

Interesting.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

There are about 7-8 QBs that can put up better or at maybe slightly worse numbers than McNabb but without the injury risk.

There may be 7-8 QBs who can put up comparable numbers to McNabb if he misses time with injury, but there's only one QB who can put up numbers comparable to McNabb + whatever backup QB you start in the games he misses, and that QB's name begins with a "P" and ends with an "eyton Manning".In 2006, the 24th best QB in terms of points per game was Rex Grossman with 14.49. If you assume that you started a Rex Grossman type (which, technically speaking, should be the worst QB in the "backup QB tier") in the games that McNabb missed, you would have gotten 325 fantasy points from your QB position. Repeat the process with 2005 and starting McNabb + Worst Backup would net you 294 fantasy points. Peyton Manning, during those two seasons, scored 362 and 294 points. This means that even if you have the worst backup QB in the league, McNabb will still net you production comparable to Peyton Manning at a fraction of the cost.Using even this basic courtesy (McNabb + Worst Backup), his scores for every season since his rookie year are: 325, 294, 365, 267, 345, 310, and 338. That's over 300 points in 5 out of 7 seasons (and in one of those seasons, QB scoring as a whole was down across the league and his score still would have ranked him 3rd). If you have a better backup than "Worst Backup", the scores just get even higher. This is extremely consistent, extremely studly production no matter HOW you slice it.

That's all well and good, but that's looking at year end numbers. I only care so much about year end numbers. The fact is that playing X backup in place of McNabb if/when he goes down might net you a hefty year end sum, but its top heavy. In the back half of the season, in those playoff games where you need points from your QB, your at a disadvantage.

 

[Phlash]

0 rush yds, 1 td

Interesting.

5 yard rushing TD, 5 yard sack.0 yards, 1 TD. Its possible.

 

[buckyben]

I see McNabb having a very good year and putting up 4200 yds, 32 TDs 15 INT and very low rushing stats.

-He will be motivated by the drafting of Kolb and the disappointing end to last year.

-He will enter the season with some injury concerns, but he will have had more than 2 months extra healing time from a slightly less serious injury than Carson Palmer had. He should be fine.

-This is the perfect group of WRs for him. Brown should have his best year and Curtis will fit the system well.

-He has a pretty decent schedule and has had passing success throughout his career against the other NFC East teams.

Personally, I love having McNabb on my team because he is very consistent. Unlike some of the other mid level QBs, there isn't a chance that his RB will have a big 3 TD rushing game. So McNabb is almost a sure thing to at least get a TD and 200 yds every game, making him a very safe start. In addition, with the way Philly loves to pass in the red zone, he has the potential to put up 3 or 4 TDs and carry your team some weeks.

Add in the fact that you can back him up in the 9th or 10th with some really nice options and you can have a great QB situation just by using 4th/10th.

 

[SSOG]

There are about 7-8 QBs that can put up better or at maybe slightly worse numbers than McNabb but without the injury risk.

There may be 7-8 QBs who can put up comparable numbers to McNabb if he misses time with injury, but there's only one QB who can put up numbers comparable to McNabb + whatever backup QB you start in the games he misses, and that QB's name begins with a "P" and ends with an "eyton Manning".In 2006, the 24th best QB in terms of points per game was Rex Grossman with 14.49. If you assume that you started a Rex Grossman type (which, technically speaking, should be the worst QB in the "backup QB tier") in the games that McNabb missed, you would have gotten 325 fantasy points from your QB position. Repeat the process with 2005 and starting McNabb + Worst Backup would net you 294 fantasy points. Peyton Manning, during those two seasons, scored 362 and 294 points. This means that even if you have the worst backup QB in the league, McNabb will still net you production comparable to Peyton Manning at a fraction of the cost.Using even this basic courtesy (McNabb + Worst Backup), his scores for every season since his rookie year are: 325, 294, 365, 267, 345, 310, and 338. That's over 300 points in 5 out of 7 seasons (and in one of those seasons, QB scoring as a whole was down across the league and his score still would have ranked him 3rd). If you have a better backup than "Worst Backup", the scores just get even higher. This is extremely consistent, extremely studly production no matter HOW you slice it.

That's all well and good, but that's looking at year end numbers. I only care so much about year end numbers. The fact is that playing X backup in place of McNabb if/when he goes down might net you a hefty year end sum, but its top heavy. In the back half of the season, in those playoff games where you need points from your QB, your at a disadvantage.

McNabb might not help you much in the playoffs, but no QB in the league will do more to ensure that you make the playoffs in the first place. Really, it doesn't matter how much your QB scores in week 16 if you're sitting at home.

 

[David Yudkin]

0 rush yds, 1 td

Interesting.

5 yard rushing TD, 5 yard sack.0 yards, 1 TD. Its possible.

Except sacks don't count as rushing attempts and QBs don't lose rushing yards when sacked.

 

[SSOG]

0 rush yds, 1 td

Interesting.

5 yard rushing TD, 5 yard sack.0 yards, 1 TD. Its possible.

Except sacks don't count as rushing attempts and QBs don't lose rushing yards when sacked.

They do lose rushing yards if they pull down the ball to run and then get tackled behind the line of scrimmage, though. They also lose yards if they run out of bounds behind the LoS.It's definitely possible. For instance, in 1983, Dan Fouts finished with 12 rushes for -5 yards and 1 TD. In 1987, he finished with 12 rushes for 0 yards and 2 scores. Dan Marino finished with negative rushing yardage and at least 1 rushing TD five times in his career (including one season with -7 yards and 2 TDs). Not only is it possible, but it's been done many times before.

 

[shadyridr]

0 rush yds, 1 td

Interesting.

QB kneeldowns down?Anyway, its just a projection buddy. Im basically saying I dont expect McNabb to run much this season. Whether he runs for 50 yards or 20 yards or 0 yards it doesnt matter to me.

 

[dgreen]

For some reason, everyone thinks I found that interesting because of its possibility. I'm well aware that it's possible. I just find it interesting that a player who has averaged 26 rush yds per game over his career is now being predicted to have pretty much nothing for a full season. I realize he had the injury last year and that could change everything. I just find it interesting.

 

[shadyridr]

For some reason, everyone thinks I found that interesting because of its possibility. I'm well aware that it's possible. I just find it interesting that a player who has averaged 26 rush yds per game over his career is now being predicted to have pretty much nothing for a full season. I realize he had the injury last year and that could change everything. I just find it interesting.

Ummm thats basically what Im saying

 

[D_House]

There are about 7-8 QBs that can put up better or at maybe slightly worse numbers than McNabb but without the injury risk.

There may be 7-8 QBs who can put up comparable numbers to McNabb if he misses time with injury, but there's only one QB who can put up numbers comparable to McNabb + whatever backup QB you start in the games he misses, and that QB's name begins with a "P" and ends with an "eyton Manning".In 2006, the 24th best QB in terms of points per game was Rex Grossman with 14.49. If you assume that you started a Rex Grossman type (which, technically speaking, should be the worst QB in the "backup QB tier") in the games that McNabb missed, you would have gotten 325 fantasy points from your QB position. Repeat the process with 2005 and starting McNabb + Worst Backup would net you 294 fantasy points. Peyton Manning, during those two seasons, scored 362 and 294 points. This means that even if you have the worst backup QB in the league, McNabb will still net you production comparable to Peyton Manning at a fraction of the cost.Using even this basic courtesy (McNabb + Worst Backup), his scores for every season since his rookie year are: 325, 294, 365, 267, 345, 310, and 338. That's over 300 points in 5 out of 7 seasons (and in one of those seasons, QB scoring as a whole was down across the league and his score still would have ranked him 3rd). If you have a better backup than "Worst Backup", the scores just get even higher. This is extremely consistent, extremely studly production no matter HOW you slice it.This isn't to say that McNabb isn't without concerns. For one, this is the first time there are questions about his health entering the season. For another, it's hard to count on him being around in the playoffs. With that said, there probably isn't another QB in all of fantasy football more likely to get you into the playoffs in the first place than Donovan McNabb.

This is what I was thinking, but without the statistics to back it up. Nice post.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

He's the big question at QB, the ultimate boom/bust. I gambled with the big boom/bust guy last year (Culpepper) and got scorched-esp since I backed him with Ben much of the time. Pairing those two was stupidity on my part.

I'm very intrigued by McNabb this year. He's seemingly going to be what, 80-90%? on Opening Day. He was a force of nature last year before getting hurt, carrying fantasy teams. I really liked the post that even 10-12 g of dominant McNabb play plus normal backup numbers would put you ahead of almost any other QB.

I'll pencil him in for 4000/33 TDs with minimal rushing contribution. Scale that back to a conservatively realistic 12g and you have 3000y/ 24 TDs or so.

I've been very successful avoiding the injury guys over the last 5 years (Culpepper aside). There's something to be said about letting the other guys assume the risk.

 

[bolldpt]

Being only about 9 mo out of surgery, His production will suffer alot and i agree with some of the other posters in that i think they will run more and pass less. I just dont like anyfootball player the next year after an ACL surgery. He might be an excellent back up or fair QBBC member.

I have him at 3600 24 12 and no sizeable rushing yds and no rushing td.

 

[konastitch]

I'm sayin' he plays all 16 games. His numbers will look something like: 3800 pass yards, 27 TDs, 11 INTs, 225 rush yards, 3 TDs.

Solid contributor based on his ADP. I'd gladly take him in RD 5. Might even consider taking Kolb in the last round as well as insurance. Philly is a good place for a fantasy QB (look what Garcia did when given the chance relative to what he did for Cleveland and Detroit).

 

[BLOX]

McNabb is the best QB value right now IMO.

You can wait until all the other "stud" QBs are gone and then know it's time to grab him. Kind of an ideal situation for guaging value imo.

I'm grabbing him in every draft I can, then using a very late round pick on Feely as he will be able to run the offense very effectively if McNabb were to go down. However, I expect McNabb to stay healthy this season. Don't know why, just a gut feeling.

 

[piston pete griffin]

Being only about 9 mo out of surgery, His production will suffer alot and i agree with some of the other posters in that i think they will run more and pass less. I just dont like anyfootball player the next year after an ACL surgery. He might be an excellent back up or fair QBBC member. I have him at 3600 24 12 and no sizeable rushing yds and no rushing td.

Didn't Duce McAllister and Carson Palmer all suffer torn ACL's and come back strong the next year? This type of injury (assuming there was no other ligament damage) is no longer the death sentence it was 5 or 6 years ago.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Being only about 9 mo out of surgery, His production will suffer alot and i agree with some of the other posters in that i think they will run more and pass less. I just dont like anyfootball player the next year after an ACL surgery. He might be an excellent back up or fair QBBC member. I have him at 3600 24 12 and no sizeable rushing yds and no rushing td.

Donovan McNabb had knee surgery in late November.Carson Palmer had knee surgery in late January.Carson Palmer's numbers last year: 324 520 62.3 4035 7.8 28 13 | 26 37 0McNabb has two extra months of rehab on Palmer. Don't see why the knee injury will limit McNabbs numbers. Some will argue that he will run less, but in his last 3 years his rushing attempts were only 2.7, 2.8 and 3.2 per game. So it's not like he was taking off and running a ton anyway.