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Player Spotlight: Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Doug Martin, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player Page Link: Doug Martin Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
  • FBG Projections
  • Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
Doug Martin, like Richardson, is a pretty safe 1st round pick for the same reasons as Richardson.......Martin is going to carry the ball a lot, catch a lot of passes, and TB offense should provide plenty of chances for Martin to eclipse 10 TDs.

My concern is that last year, Martin generated 26% of his yards and 50% of his TDs in 2 games, which includes his historic performance against the Raiders. Which means that the other 14 games he had 265 car for 1068 yds, had 42 rec for 372 yds and scored 6 TDs. These aren't bad numbers, but would be very disappointing for a RB that's going 3rd overall. He had 9 games where he didn't score a TD. A positive is that Martin consistently gets 2-4 catches a game, which helps him go over 10 points almost every week. But given his draft position of RB3, I want a guy that can consistently produce big numbers, and Martin last year seemed to be shut down by good defenses.

But that said, just the sheer volume alone makes Martin a safe 1st round pick. He likely will finish in the top 10 RBs, but IMO he's not worth the 3rd overall pick. I would rather take Calvin Johnson, Marshawn Lynch, Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, or Trent Richardson over Martin, once Peterson and Foster are off the board. So Martin is currently ranked RB7 on my board.

310 car, 1250 yds rushing, 9 TD

45 rec, 350 rec yards, 1 TD

 

Lott's Fingertip

Footballguy
Martin had 1926 yards and 12 TDs last year... and I think his situation improves this year with the injured linemen returning.

Throw out his insane high game, then throw out his low game... prorate the remaining 14 games to 16 games...

1850 total yards, I'll stick with the 12 TDs.

 

KrazyKyle

Footballguy
I couldn't agree with fightingillini more. Food for thought, Bucs plays 49ers and Rams in weeks 15/16 respectively. I think I'll be looking to a number of different players in the first round. Top 10 running back? More than likely. Top 3-5? I cannot see it happening, unless they play Oakland every year!

 

Lott's Fingertip

Footballguy
I couldn't agree with fightingillini more. Food for thought, Bucs plays 49ers and Rams in weeks 15/16 respectively. I think I'll be looking to a number of different players in the first round. Top 10 running back? More than likely. Top 3-5? I cannot see it happening, unless they play Oakland every year!
Well, throw out the Minnesota game entirely, give Martin a zero.

He would still have finished #4 in PPR and #5 in non-PPR. Can't see it happening?

 

cstu

Footballguy
I couldn't agree with fightingillini more. Food for thought, Bucs plays 49ers and Rams in weeks 15/16 respectively. I think I'll be looking to a number of different players in the first round. Top 10 running back? More than likely. Top 3-5? I cannot see it happening, unless they play Oakland every year!
Those are lousy matchups but he did score 19 against the Rams week 16 last year.

Also, even if you ignore his big blowup games weeks 8 and 9 he still finished #6 from week 10 on.

 

cstu

Footballguy
Martin had 1926 yards and 12 TDs last year... and I think his situation improves this year with the injured linemen returning.

Throw out his insane high game, then throw out his low game... prorate the remaining 14 games to 16 games...

1850 total yards, I'll stick with the 12 TDs.
Personally I think he regresses a bit more - 1600 total yards and 10 TD's. Still puts him close to top 5.

 

Beerguzzler

Footballguy
Did people not watch him play? I don't get some of the negativity towards him. He was simply awesome last season. He's a legit 3 down back. He plays for a coach that loves to pound the rock as well. Getting 2 probowl guards back to block for him is the cherry. One of the safest picks in the draft this year. If drops out of the top 5, it's insane.

 

msommer

Footballguy
Martin had 1926 yards and 12 TDs last year... and I think his situation improves this year with the injured linemen returning.

Throw out his insane high game, then throw out his low game... prorate the remaining 14 games to 16 games...

1850 total yards, I'll stick with the 12 TDs.
Personally I think he regresses a bit more - 1600 total yards and 10 TD's. Still puts him close to top 5.
I don't disagree with either of these two suggstions - but want to highlight that the possibility exists that more insane games are on the horizon.

So we have a guy who's floor is RB6/7 - but could go all the way up to the top.

What's not to like?

 

Jedimaster21

Footballguy
There are a few other points to remember:

1. He was a rookie. The game will continue to slow down and there is usually a JUMP in effectiveness going into year 2.

2. His offensive line is solid and will be better than last year.

3. He is the unquestioned best player on the team in any running situation; passing downs, red zone, you name it...NO competition for carries.

4. He is extremely durable.

I don't see any way that he drops off this year. As good as his rookie year was, there is upside here.

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
I couldn't agree with fightingillini more. Food for thought, Bucs plays 49ers and Rams in weeks 15/16 respectively. I think I'll be looking to a number of different players in the first round. Top 10 running back? More than likely. Top 3-5? I cannot see it happening, unless they play Oakland every year!
Well, throw out the Minnesota game entirely, give Martin a zero.

He would still have finished #4 in PPR and #5 in non-PPR. Can't see it happening?
Sure I can. My post never says that Martin can't be a top 5 back. My concern is people assuming 1900 total yards and 12 scores since he did it last year. Just mentioning 26% of the yards and 50% of the scores coming in 2 games. Again, in those other 14 games, Martin only averaged about 4 yards a carry. I have him for slightly higher than that.

I personally like some other backs better than Martin. But that doesn't indicate Martin isn't a safe 1st round pick....IMO, I wouldn't take him at 3 overall if ADP and Foster are off the board. I would take him at pick 7 or 8.....but he'll be gone in all leagues by then, so I probably won't own him in any league.

 

cstu

Footballguy
Martin had 1926 yards and 12 TDs last year... and I think his situation improves this year with the injured linemen returning.

Throw out his insane high game, then throw out his low game... prorate the remaining 14 games to 16 games...

1850 total yards, I'll stick with the 12 TDs.
Personally I think he regresses a bit more - 1600 total yards and 10 TD's. Still puts him close to top 5.
I don't disagree with either of these two suggstions - but want to highlight that the possibility exists that more insane games are on the horizon.

So we have a guy who's floor is RB6/7 - but could go all the way up to the top.

What's not to like?
Not a bad floor to have, is it?

 

Wise Old Owl

Footballguy
I couldn't agree with fightingillini more. Food for thought, Bucs plays 49ers and Rams in weeks 15/16 respectively. I think I'll be looking to a number of different players in the first round. Top 10 running back? More than likely. Top 3-5? I cannot see it happening, unless they play Oakland every year!
Well, throw out the Minnesota game entirely, give Martin a zero.

He would still have finished #4 in PPR and #5 in non-PPR. Can't see it happening?
Sure I can. My post never says that Martin can't be a top 5 back. My concern is people assuming 1900 total yards and 12 scores since he did it last year. Just mentioning 26% of the yards and 50% of the scores coming in 2 games. Again, in those other 14 games, Martin only averaged about 4 yards a carry. I have him for slightly higher than that.

I personally like some other backs better than Martin. But that doesn't indicate Martin isn't a safe 1st round pick....IMO, I wouldn't take him at 3 overall if ADP and Foster are off the board. I would take him at pick 7 or 8.....but he'll be gone in all leagues by then, so I probably won't own him in any league.
This is essentially how I feel about it, I'm seeing him going as high as first overall, which while isn't completely insane, is simply a decision I wouldn't make. I would feel great taking him at 5 or 6 though.

 

Lott's Fingertip

Footballguy
I couldn't agree with fightingillini more. Food for thought, Bucs plays 49ers and Rams in weeks 15/16 respectively. I think I'll be looking to a number of different players in the first round. Top 10 running back? More than likely. Top 3-5? I cannot see it happening, unless they play Oakland every year!
Well, throw out the Minnesota game entirely, give Martin a zero.

He would still have finished #4 in PPR and #5 in non-PPR. Can't see it happening?
Sure I can. My post never says that Martin can't be a top 5 back. My concern is people assuming 1900 total yards and 12 scores since he did it last year. Just mentioning 26% of the yards and 50% of the scores coming in 2 games. Again, in those other 14 games, Martin only averaged about 4 yards a carry. I have him for slightly higher than that.

I personally like some other backs better than Martin. But that doesn't indicate Martin isn't a safe 1st round pick....IMO, I wouldn't take him at 3 overall if ADP and Foster are off the board. I would take him at pick 7 or 8.....but he'll be gone in all leagues by then, so I probably won't own him in any league.
Did you mean to respond to my post?

I was directing my "Can't see it happening?" to Kyle, since he indicated that top 3-5 is only reasonable if Martin plays Oakland every week.

 

Hairy Snowman

Footballguy
NOTE: In addition to the improved/healthy offensive line and familiarity of the offense with the playbook, the defense is significantly improved from last year. Revis Island's shores are in Tampa Bay now with a team that will likely score some points. The whole situation looks better for Tampa right now. But it is still a long summer.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
The Bucs offense looks pretty stable carrying over what they established last season with pro bowl guards Nicks and Joseph returning which should be a very good thing. Nicks looked dominant at times before he was injured and seemed to help LT Penn play at a higher level than I have noticed before also. I thought he had a great year. They create a nasty left side and with Joseph being a very good pulling guard I can see more good things ahead running to this side.

Martin had a great rookie season and no real changes I noticed through the draft other than Mike Glennon being taken in the 3rd round to push Freeman. Blount is gone, traded for 5'7" RB Demps, the Bucs drafted RB Mike James 6th round to back him up. Michael Smith a rookie from last season and they added Brian Leonard in FA. Leonard is the most experienced and can play some FB/HB so they might use him a bit. Not sure who is the backup at this point. Anyhow no real threat to Martin but I will likely read up some more on James for waiver watch.

The draft mainly was about getting Revis, then another good corner Johnathan Banks with the 2nd and Akeem Spence DT in the 4th. Better defense could lead to more running plays.

I am pretty much seeing Martin repeat what he did last season. I regressed his ypc both running and receiving a bit but not much from last season. As I expect some game planning will help teams defend against Martin better. The return of Joseph may have this actually improving however so when I give these another pass I will likely tweak these numbers for upside/downside as well on the next go. But for now-

290-330ra 4.4ypc 1276-1452yds 9-13TD 40-60rec 8.2ypc 328-492yds 0-3TD or 1604-1944yds 9-16TD

 
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KrazyKyle

Footballguy
I couldn't agree with fightingillini more. Food for thought, Bucs plays 49ers and Rams in weeks 15/16 respectively. I think I'll be looking to a number of different players in the first round. Top 10 running back? More than likely. Top 3-5? I cannot see it happening, unless they play Oakland every year!
Well, throw out the Minnesota game entirely, give Martin a zero. He would still have finished #4 in PPR and #5 in non-PPR. Can't see it happening?
Sure I can. My post never says that Martin can't be a top 5 back. My concern is people assuming 1900 total yards and 12 scores since he did it last year. Just mentioning 26% of the yards and 50% of the scores coming in 2 games. Again, in those other 14 games, Martin only averaged about 4 yards a carry. I have him for slightly higher than that. I personally like some other backs better than Martin. But that doesn't indicate Martin isn't a safe 1st round pick....IMO, I wouldn't take him at 3 overall if ADP and Foster are off the board. I would take him at pick 7 or 8.....but he'll be gone in all leagues by then, so I probably won't own him in any league.
Did you mean to respond to my post? I was directing my "Can't see it happening?" to Kyle, since he indicated that top 3-5 is only reasonable if Martin plays Oakland every week.
I take it back, I could see him top 3, but I could also see a dozen other RBs do the same. It is only my personal opinion that he will be overdrafted. Everyone has solid points as to why he will perform as great, if not better than last year. I don't have any stats or facts to back my opinion up at this moment, I am going to look into it more to see if I can find some. Sometimes people go on gut feeling, wrong or right, I see Doug Martin as the 7th to 8th RB off my board.
 

fightingillini

Footballguy
Lott said:
fightingillini said:
Lott said:
KrazyKyle said:
I couldn't agree with fightingillini more. Food for thought, Bucs plays 49ers and Rams in weeks 15/16 respectively. I think I'll be looking to a number of different players in the first round. Top 10 running back? More than likely. Top 3-5? I cannot see it happening, unless they play Oakland every year!
Well, throw out the Minnesota game entirely, give Martin a zero.

He would still have finished #4 in PPR and #5 in non-PPR. Can't see it happening?
Sure I can. My post never says that Martin can't be a top 5 back. My concern is people assuming 1900 total yards and 12 scores since he did it last year. Just mentioning 26% of the yards and 50% of the scores coming in 2 games. Again, in those other 14 games, Martin only averaged about 4 yards a carry. I have him for slightly higher than that.

I personally like some other backs better than Martin. But that doesn't indicate Martin isn't a safe 1st round pick....IMO, I wouldn't take him at 3 overall if ADP and Foster are off the board. I would take him at pick 7 or 8.....but he'll be gone in all leagues by then, so I probably won't own him in any league.
Did you mean to respond to my post?

I was directing my "Can't see it happening?" to Kyle, since he indicated that top 3-5 is only reasonable if Martin plays Oakland every week.
I know you were, I was giving my input that Martin can easily have a top 5 season. But so can Peterson, Foster, Charles, Lynch, Rice, Richardson, McCoy and Spiller. Peterson and Foster are the best bets, but IMO after those two, the next 5-6 RBs are pretty close.

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
KrazyKyle said:
Lott said:
fightingillini said:
Lott said:
KrazyKyle said:
I couldn't agree with fightingillini more. Food for thought, Bucs plays 49ers and Rams in weeks 15/16 respectively. I think I'll be looking to a number of different players in the first round. Top 10 running back? More than likely. Top 3-5? I cannot see it happening, unless they play Oakland every year!
Well, throw out the Minnesota game entirely, give Martin a zero. He would still have finished #4 in PPR and #5 in non-PPR. Can't see it happening?
Sure I can. My post never says that Martin can't be a top 5 back. My concern is people assuming 1900 total yards and 12 scores since he did it last year. Just mentioning 26% of the yards and 50% of the scores coming in 2 games. Again, in those other 14 games, Martin only averaged about 4 yards a carry. I have him for slightly higher than that. I personally like some other backs better than Martin. But that doesn't indicate Martin isn't a safe 1st round pick....IMO, I wouldn't take him at 3 overall if ADP and Foster are off the board. I would take him at pick 7 or 8.....but he'll be gone in all leagues by then, so I probably won't own him in any league.
Did you mean to respond to my post? I was directing my "Can't see it happening?" to Kyle, since he indicated that top 3-5 is only reasonable if Martin plays Oakland every week.
I take it back, I could see him top 3, but I could also see a dozen other RBs do the same. It is only my personal opinion that he will be overdrafted. Everyone has solid points as to why he will perform as great, if not better than last year. I don't have any stats or facts to back my opinion up at this moment, I am going to look into it more to see if I can find some. Sometimes people go on gut feeling, wrong or right, I see Doug Martin as the 7th to 8th RB off my board.
I agree he's RB7 on my list (RB6 in standard leagues), but I think RBs 3-8 are a pretty close tier.

 

msudaisy26

Footballguy
I think Martin could finish any where from rb1 to rb8 as well, but I think he has the least amount of question marks around him compared to all those other backs and is probably in the best possible situation of all these backs and that is why he is being taken so high.

Peterson - He has an injury history, even though he recovers quick, in terms of running backs he is getting up there in age, but he has no one to compete again, shown he can beat loaded boxes last year, but can he do it forever if Ponder still sucks?

Lynch - No one to really compete against, but the offense might open up. Could have some legal issues. Could the Seahawks save him some for the post season?

Charles - No one to compete against and what should be an improved offense, doesn't really have an injury history except for the ACL.

Spiller - Can he carry a full workload? How much will an aging Fred Jackson get? Will having a rookie quarterback hurt him? Did show he can be a top 10 guy in an RBBC for most of last year though.

Mccoy - Showed he can be a top back in the league 2 years ago. He is a smaller back and missed a game 2 years ago and several games last year, is he too small to be a work horse? I am not sure, plus Bryce Brown is also too talented not to get some carries.

Foster - Run first offense and he is the lead back, catches a ton of balls too. His YPC has went down every year and the Texans are going to want him fresh for the playoffs so maybe they lean on Tate a little more this year.

Rice - He is still young but has a lot of carries under his belt because of all the playoff games he has been in since he has been in the league, Pierce has also shown some ability so he may also steal some carries.

Richardson - He has a ton of talent but was banged up a lot his first year, he still is going to see a lot of loaded up boxes because teams will make whoever the quarterback is beat them. He doesn't really have anyone to compete against either.

Martin - He has no one to compete against, teams can't stack the box because of the deep threat of V. Jackson and linebackers can't key on him for dump offs because Freeman can take off and run, he has only been in the NFL 1 year but he was very healthy so hard to say their is an injury concern either way.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Martin's situation definitely looks ideal. No notable competition, improved o-line, and improved defense. However, aside from the Oakland game, his season was very Knowshon Moreno-esque. I say this because when looking at the last 5 games of the year for Knowshon, I couldn't help but notice that his numbers were actually just a hair better than Doug Martin's. If you temporarily ignore that Oakland game, Martin appears to just be a stat compiler 294 carries for 1203 yards. People will always see what they want to see, and Martin won a lot of people a lot of games, so I'm sure everyone sees some great skill in those 15 games at 4.1 ypc, but I'm not too excited about him. It is hard to imagine he doesn't get ~300 carries again, so he should be fine, but it shouldn't shock anyone if he ends the year with less flashy totals. I could see him on a similar career trajectory of another late first round pick - Mendenhall. After missing his first season with an injury, Mendenhall tore it up his second year but hasn't broken 4.1 ypc since then. We all expected the game to slow down for Mendenhall and for him to get better after his breakout year, but that isn't always the way it works.

Personally, I'd rather have Lynch than Martin. And by a wide margin. Given that Lynch is going several spots later, I can't imagine Martin on any of my teams this year. Barring injury, he should finish top 10 on workload alone, so he's a very safe pick. He seems more durable than the more talented Richardson and his situation is probably a little bit better (Freeman/Jackon > Weeden/Gordon). So I can't knock taking such a safe bet with an early pick, but I do think caution is advisable when considering his upside. Speaking of which, touchdowns are wildly unpredictable and Tampa is not a juggernaut offense, so it is a bit foolish to consider 12 TDs to be his floor. I think his likely range is 7-15.

300 carries x 4.2 ypc = 1260 yds 8 TDs, 50 rec x 8 ypr = 400 yds 1 TD

 

Leonidas

Footballguy
Peterson - He has an injury history, even though he recovers quick, in terms of running backs he is getting up there in age, but he has no one to compete again, shown he can beat loaded boxes last year, but can he do it forever if Ponder still sucks?
He has missed 7 games in 6 seasons. For a starting NFL RB, I do not understand how this can be considered a notable injury risk.

 

Mr. Irrelevant

IBL Representative
I think Martin could finish any where from rb1 to rb8 as well, but I think he has the least amount of question marks around him compared to all those other backs and is probably in the best possible situation of all these backs and that is why he is being taken so high.
I feel obligated to weigh in here, if only because I took the Muscle Hamster at 1.02 in SSL - higher than most - and would probably have taken him at 1.01 if I'd drawn the 1-slot.

The quote above basically sums up my reasoning. I think there are 8 backs that could conceivably finish the season as RB1, but of the 8 I think Martin has the best chance of doing so. By no means is it certain, or even probable, but in a pool of 8, a 20% chance is still pretty good. He finished RB2/RB3 last season, and nearly every difference between this year and last will be in his favor:

  • He's getting the best two-fifths of his OL (and it's not even close) back in action
  • He'll have less competition for GL touches this year than last, and than any other top-tier back
  • With 12 TD's last season, his point totals were actually less TD-dependent than any other top-5 RB - if he gets the 350+ touches I expect, TD's should go up
  • Josh Freeman will have another year under his belt, and should prove a respectable two-way option that will force defenses off the line
  • The Bucs' defense will be significantly improved via both Revis and the draft, and should allow the offense to play with the lead more often
  • TE was an obvious offensive hole last season but it's been left unfilled, meaning Martin should still be the #1 option on short-yardage pass plays
In a division with the Saints, Panthers, and Falcons - not exactly an NFC West-class trio - people are sleeping on the breakout potential of the Bucs' offense this year. I like Freeman, Martin, and V-Jax to all outperform their current ADP's, but it's Martin who should, and I feel will, be the star of this show.

Projection: 328 rushes, 1540 yds (4.7 avg), 13 TD; 48 rec, 400 yds (8.3 avg), 2 TD - which equates to, well, about a 20% chance of finishing RB1.

 

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