Player Spotlight: Dwayne Bowe (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Dwayne Bowe, WR, Kansas City Chiefs

Player Page Link: Dwayne Bowe Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[jurb26]

Good player, average situation.

75 receptions, 1050 yds, 7 Tds

 

[Harjiran]

Bowe is tough to gauge ... a girfted, physically imposing WR in the mold of a young TO, mired in a weak, conservative, run-first offense, with an extremely suspect QB throwing him the ball. My gut tells me that Bowe takes a moderate step forward in his second year and improves on last year's numbers with 80 rec, 1,050 yds and 8 TDs. But I think that if this guy played for the Pats or Colts, he'd be a perennial pro bowler.

 

[TitusIII]

Assuming LJ is healthy, I don't think Bowe will crack 1000 yards. Due to the questionable QB situation/# of touches LJ will demand, Bowe will not realize his full/immense potential anytime soon.

65 receptions

900 yards

5 TD's

Don't get me wrong, I think Bowe has the ability to be a top-flight NFL WR, and sooner than most think, but not in the current KC system...

 

[Englishteacher]

Assuming LJ is healthy, I don't think Bowe will crack 1000 yards. Due to the questionable QB situation/# of touches LJ will demand, Bowe will not realize his full/immense potential anytime soon.65 receptions900 yards5 TD'sDon't get me wrong, I think Bowe has the ability to be a top-flight NFL WR, and sooner than most think, but not in the current KC system...

He had like 995 yards last year as a rookie... ?

 

[twr]

Assuming LJ is healthy, I don't think Bowe will crack 1000 yards. Due to the questionable QB situation/# of touches LJ will demand, Bowe will not realize his full/immense potential anytime soon.65 receptions900 yards5 TD'sDon't get me wrong, I think Bowe has the ability to be a top-flight NFL WR, and sooner than most think, but not in the current KC system...

He had like 995 yards last year as a rookie... ?

 

[The Man with the Plan]

I'd like him a lot better if Damon Huard was his starting quarterback. So far it looks like it's going to be Brodie Croyle though.

 

[travdogg]

I thin Dwayne Bowe is going to be another Andre Johnson unfortunately Croyle may be even less of a QB than Carr.

75-1100-8 likely finishing in the 12-20 range.

 

[rzrback77]

Too many questions about the KC QB situation for me to be a big fan of Bowe in 08. Last year their OL struggled and Larry Johnson was injured. They has 562 passes and only 357 rushing attempts. I think that they will prefer to run much more in 08 than last year. Additionally, their starting QB is likely to be Brodie Croyle and I just don't think too highly of him. I look for the passing stats to decrease and Bowe's numbers with it.

Bowe was successful in his rookie campaign garnering 995 yards on 70 receptions with 5 TDs and finished as WR 24. However, among FBG staff this year, he is ranked 16th and he will likely be drafted similarly which is too high for me.

Dwayne Bowe 68 catches for 880 yards 12.9 ypc and 4 TDs

 

[loose circuits]

Too many questions about the KC QB situation for me to be a big fan of Bowe in 08. Last year their OL struggled and Larry Johnson was injured. They has 562 passes and only 357 rushing attempts. I think that they will prefer to run much more in 08 than last year. Additionally, their starting QB is likely to be Brodie Croyle and I just don't think too highly of him. I look for the passing stats to decrease and Bowe's numbers with it.Bowe was successful in his rookie campaign garnering 995 yards on 70 receptions with 5 TDs and finished as WR 24. However, among FBG staff this year, he is ranked 16th and he will likely be drafted similarly which is too high for me.Dwayne Bowe 68 catches for 880 yards 12.9 ypc and 4 TDs

I hope you are right because he would be the ideal buy low in a dynastyI think Bowe is the real deal and he will at least repeat his rookie numbers if not better. Croyle should get somewhat better anyways... 80 1075 6

 

[twr]

Too many questions about the KC QB situation for me to be a big fan of Bowe in 08. Last year their OL struggled and Larry Johnson was injured. They has 562 passes and only 357 rushing attempts. I think that they will prefer to run much more in 08 than last year. Additionally, their starting QB is likely to be Brodie Croyle and I just don't think too highly of him. I look for the passing stats to decrease and Bowe's numbers with it.Bowe was successful in his rookie campaign garnering 995 yards on 70 receptions with 5 TDs and finished as WR 24. However, among FBG staff this year, he is ranked 16th and he will likely be drafted similarly which is too high for me.Dwayne Bowe 68 catches for 880 yards 12.9 ypc and 4 TDs

those arnt terrible numbers, as i expect most of the passes to go to tony as long as hes there. but bowe is an elite talent who will become a strong number 1. trade for him now if you can get him at the right value.lj and bowe will help each other.are TO's stats bad due to Mb3 and witten? no, talent helps talent.

 

[Englishteacher]

Too many questions about the KC QB situation for me to be a big fan of Bowe in 08. Last year their OL struggled and Larry Johnson was injured. They has 562 passes and only 357 rushing attempts. I think that they will prefer to run much more in 08 than last year. Additionally, their starting QB is likely to be Brodie Croyle and I just don't think too highly of him. I look for the passing stats to decrease and Bowe's numbers with it.Bowe was successful in his rookie campaign garnering 995 yards on 70 receptions with 5 TDs and finished as WR 24. However, among FBG staff this year, he is ranked 16th and he will likely be drafted similarly which is too high for me.Dwayne Bowe 68 catches for 880 yards 12.9 ypc and 4 TDs

those arnt terrible numbers, as i expect most of the passes to go to tony as long as hes there. but bowe is an elite talent who will become a strong number 1. trade for him now if you can get him at the right value.lj and bowe will help each other.are TO's stats bad due to Mb3 and witten? no, talent helps talent.

The missing part of that equation is a Pro Bowl QB though. And, Dallas' system is way more pass oriented than what Herm Edwards would like to run. However, a bonus for Bowe in this run heavy offense is he is the unquestioned #1 WR (obviously Gonzo is a primary target but he's a TE) and he won't have many catches siphoned off by a strong #2 guy (WR).

 

[DoctorFantasy]

77-1095-7

 

[noneother]

he's a number 3 WR to me

75/900/8

 

[Banger]

For the #'s he'll likely put up he'll go too high for my liking. He's got risk written all over him. He's currently ranked 16th on FBG and I can see a number of guys ranked lower that I like a lot more. 65-850-6.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

The situation is certainly not worse than last year, and he was a rookie. I don't understand all the negativity towards him.

78 1092 6

 

[greenf7cat]

As a Chefs homer, I watched every single game last year, and saw two trends:

1. When Huard was the starting QB, he looked for Tony G. on every play as the #1 option

2. When Croyle was the starting QB, he looked for Bowe on every play as the #1 option

To be honest, the Chefs OL cannot get any worse than it was last year (I certainly hope not anyway)!! Bowe still managed to get 995 yds receiving last year, when they were down every game, had no LJ, and had to pass the ball all the time.. he still came away with those numbers.

80/1100/6 TDs

 

[Banger]

The situation is certainly not worse than last year, and he was a rookie. I don't understand all the negativity towards him.78 1092 6

The problem is if they improve they will throw a lot less. Last year they finished 11th in attempts with 563 and 30th in rushing attempts (383). In '06 the team finished 22nd in passing attempts with 450. Herm would clearly rather run the ball than pass the ball, as would new OC Chan Gailey. If LJ is healthy they will run the ball a lot more than they did last year, so IMO the only way Bowe is a good value is if KC is much worse than last year.

 

[Chase Stuart]

As I posted here, it's extremely rare for the top rookie WR to end up being the top WR in his draft class. In the last 25 years, only Moss has done it, with Boldin and Colston being good bets to match him. Since 1992, the top rookie WR ranked 5th or 6th in his class an incredible nine times. So it seems a bit more likely that Bowe finishes outside the top three than first, when it's all said and done, if history is our guide.

As for Bowe's 2008 fantasy prospects, for fourteen straight years the top rookie fantasy WR decline the next year; however, the past two seasons, the top rookie WR in the preceding year improved that season (Edwards and Colston). Reasonable persons can disagree about this one, but I think I'm going to be a bit hesitant about Bowe's prospects going forward.

Compiling great numbers as a rookie WR is a lot easier than some think. But there are usually 10 or 15 WRs with a chance to have solid years, and one or two of them usually will. But that doesn't make them uber talented or amazing receivers. There's a good bit of luck involved there, I think.

 

[LBH]

85 rec 1100yds 5tds

 

[sholditch]

85 rec 1100yds 5tds 7TDs

fixed

WR2

 

[The Jacket]

71 rec.

1050 yards

5 TD

 

[Ministry of Pain]

This guy has Andre Johnson written all over him. A miami product that went to LSU, Bowe is 6-2 and 220+lbs...he's a big guy that is strong and can catch baals over the middle as well as deep. This big fram of his will serve him well as he matures. I know the KC passing game leaves a lot to be desired but this kid was kicking tail last season with nothing under center...things haven't changed much but I see a decent uptick for this guy.

72 rec 1,100 yds, 8TD

And I think the sky is the limit for Bowe.

 

[travdogg]

This guy has Andre Johnson written all over him. A miami product that went to LSU, Bowe is 6-2 and 220+lbs...he's a big guy that is strong and can catch baals over the middle as well as deep. This big fram of his will serve him well as he matures. I know the KC passing game leaves a lot to be desired but this kid was kicking tail last season with nothing under center...things haven't changed much but I see a decent uptick for this guy.72 rec 1,100 yds, 8TDAnd I think the sky is the limit for Bowe.

I agree with this and will add that Bowe had that great rookie year despite not being signed until 2 weeks before the regular season started.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

I don't think Bowe is going to follow the footsteps of fellow LSU WR Michael Clayton for one reason, confidence. The D Bowe Show believes he's good, very good. A good argument could be made that KC has the toughest FF schedule for WRs with DEN, SD and OAK twice. But Bowe put up great numbers in those games against Pro Bowlers:

31 catches for 506 yards in those 6 games

Not too many rookie WRs would have succeeded in the situation he was put into last year and it's hard to see KC's O being worse than it was in 2007. Assuming LJ is healthy he ought to again command most of the attention. Tony G is due for a drop-off at some point, I'd bet he doesn't average 10 targets per game again this year. With KC expected to be playing from behind frequently I like the D Bowe Show as a good WR2, excellent WR3...just don't ask him to run the fade becuase he doesn't like it.

80 receptions

1100 yards

6 TD

 

[The Jacket]

With KC expected to be playing from behind frequently I like the D Bowe Show as a good WR2, excellent WR3...just don't ask him to run the fade becuase he doesn't like it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdQoD2vkVrI :X

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Big athletic receiver came into camp somewhat late last season will only get better. The problem with Bowe is many people feel the same way. I don't like a race in trying to grab a guy like Bowe who's really not proven but I liked what I saw last season and think he'll improve. After around 15 Wr's are off the board, don't hesitate to pull the trigger on Bowe.

80 receptions for 1050 yards and 7 td's

 

[King of the Jungle]

Bowe's talent is better than his situation, somewhat similar to Andre Johnson's first couple seasons with David Carr. I think year three is when he will make a push into the top 15.

This year: 78-1025-7

 

[Jon_Moore]

As a rookie with a bad quarterback situation, and a bad running game Bowe finished just 5 yards shy of 1,000 yards. With a full season under his belt to get comfortable in the offense and Larry Johnson returning to keep defenses focused on the running game, Bowe is poised for a very strong sophomore season.

77 Receptions

1039 Yards

7 Tds

 

[faux_bear]

any new thoughts on Bowe? for a potentially top 20 WR there's been a surprisingly little amount of discussion about him.

 

[-baller]

As a rookie with a bad quarterback situation, and a bad running game Bowe finished just 5 yards shy of 1,000 yards.

now he's a 2nd year player w/a bad qb and bad running game.

 

[faux_bear]

As a rookie with a bad quarterback situation, and a bad running game Bowe finished just 5 yards shy of 1,000 yards.

now he's a 2nd year player w/a bad qb and bad running game.

forget the fact he's a second year player. talent is talent and he showed he's got the goods last year. granted, the offense stinks right now, but if KC is going to be playing from behind a lot, you would think this would only help him rack up some stats.

 

[-baller]

why do I see all these posts about how the pats and randy moss 'caught the league by surprise' all season last year and now coaches have all this film to study over the offseason to shut them down, but nobody got any film of bowe?

they can't shut down kc's offense?

 

[The Jacket]

why do I see all these posts about how the pats and randy moss 'caught the league by surprise' all season last year and now coaches have all this film to study over the offseason to shut them down, but nobody got any film of bowe?they can't shut down kc's offense?

Do you think it's harder to reduce five TDs over 16 games or 23 TDs over 16 games?

 

[-baller]

do you think it's harder to shut down kc or the pats?

 

[Banger]

do you think it's harder to shut down kc or the pats?

KC's offense was 31st last year scoring 14 pts/game while NE's was 1st @ nearly 37 pts/game (almost 9 pts more than the #2). I realistically can't see the KC offense getting worse. KC's pts/game was in the bottom 5 since 2003 while NE's was the most in history of the game. I'd say NE's due to regress a lot more than KC. That's all fine and good but what's really the point...NE will still be one of the best and KC will still be one of the worst. What is your point in regard to Bowe? what do you see his numbers regressing to?

 

[-baller]

haha...I don't see bowe doing much better than last year because he's in the same crap situation --- 3 or 4 random 100 yd + td games.

I'll admit, since he's on that crap offense he gets targets, and I'm ppr, so if he was sitting there in the 12th, or whatever, I'd pick him up, but he won't be, so I don't have much interest.

when welker got signed by the pats last year there was no buzz about him because he doesn't leap high in the air for one handed circus catches -- he just produces, and a lot of people draft off youtube clips.

all these bowe, jacoby, et al receivers are overvalued.

 

[Banger]

haha...I don't see bowe doing much better than last year because he's in the same crap situation --- 3 or 4 random 100 yd + td games.I'll admit, since he's on that crap offense he gets targets, and I'm ppr, so if he was sitting there in the 12th, or whatever, I'd pick him up, but he won't be, so I don't have much interest.when welker got signed by the pats last year there was no buzz about him because he doesn't leap high in the air for one handed circus catches -- he just produces, and a lot of people draft off youtube clips.all these bowe, jacoby, et al receivers are overvalued.

there's a pretty big difference between Bowe and Jacoby (to me at least). So you don't think Bowe will do much better but he shouldn't do much worse. He was the #24 wr last year and his ADP is #21 wr. Seems about right to me.... Not really seeing the relevance of bringing Moss/Welker in for comparison in your posts. Apples/oranges.

 

[theplayer11]

do you think it's harder to shut down kc or the pats?

KC's offense was 31st last year scoring 14 pts/game while NE's was 1st @ nearly 37 pts/game (almost 9 pts more than the #2). I realistically can't see the KC offense getting worse. KC's pts/game was in the bottom 5 since 2003 while NE's was the most in history of the game. I'd say NE's due to regress a lot more than KC. That's all fine and good but what's really the point...NE will still be one of the best and KC will still be one of the worst. What is your point in regard to Bowe? what do you see his numbers regressing to?

12th? ridiculous

 

[loose circuits]

As a rookie with a bad quarterback situation, and a bad running game Bowe finished just 5 yards shy of 1,000 yards.

now he's a 2nd year player w/a bad qb and bad running game.

forget the fact he's a second year player. talent is talent and he showed he's got the goods last year. granted, the offense stinks right now, but if KC is going to be playing from behind a lot, you would think this would only help him rack up some stats.

exactly why I think Bowe is a great prospect. KC will fall behind early and often and will have to air it out whether Herm likes it or not. Croyle seems to focus on Bowe so he should see plenty of targets. Nothing like winning fantasy games off garbage time production v prevent D's

 

[thatguy]

As I posted here, it's extremely rare for the top rookie WR to end up being the top WR in his draft class. In the last 25 years, only Moss has done it, with Boldin and Colston being good bets to match him. Since 1992, the top rookie WR ranked 5th or 6th in his class an incredible nine times. So it seems a bit more likely that Bowe finishes outside the top three than first, when it's all said and done, if history is our guide.

As for Bowe's 2008 fantasy prospects, for fourteen straight years the top rookie fantasy WR decline the next year; however, the past two seasons, the top rookie WR in the preceding year improved that season (Edwards and Colston). Reasonable persons can disagree about this one, but I think I'm going to be a bit hesitant about Bowe's prospects going forward.

Compiling great numbers as a rookie WR is a lot easier than some think. But there are usually 10 or 15 WRs with a chance to have solid years, and one or two of them usually will. But that doesn't make them uber talented or amazing receivers. There's a good bit of luck involved there, I think.

Statistics and historical trends can certainly be telling and in some cases should be used as a guide, but they can't be looked at in a vacuum. If you allow this particular trend to sway your opinion of Bowe without taking other factors into account (something I assume you've done since you say nothing of Bowe as a player but rather speak of him in terms of rank and how this rank ties into historical data), then you're way off base. With Bowe, all you need do is watch his game film to realize that he's a top notch talent. Personally, I don't think the trend that you're pointing out is particularly predictive or useful on its own, or even generally speaking - it serves merely to tell us what we already know: things in the NFL change quickly. Now, Bowe probably won't end up the best WR from his draft class (see, there's this guy named Calvin), but he has all the physical tools to have a very successful career.

 

[ffguru56]

As a rookie with a bad quarterback situation, and a bad running game Bowe finished just 5 yards shy of 1,000 yards.

now he's a 2nd year player w/a bad qb and bad running game.

forget the fact he's a second year player. talent is talent and he showed he's got the goods last year. granted, the offense stinks right now, but if KC is going to be playing from behind a lot, you would think this would only help him rack up some stats.

exactly why I think Bowe is a great prospect. KC will fall behind early and often and will have to air it out whether Herm likes it or not. Croyle seems to focus on Bowe so he should see plenty of targets. Nothing like winning fantasy games off garbage time production v prevent D's

this is exactly what i want to hear since i traded aaron rodgers for him in my dynasty league (and bumped my mid 2nd round pick to the 2.1)

 

[Otis]

He reminds me very much of Anquan Boldin, and I expect similar success in the NFL.