I think Gore is going to bust big time this year. This is a guy who had a great season last year but I'm not ready to put him in the top 5 due to one great year. I'm staying away from in every draft I'll be in this year.Not as sold on SF as much as others either I guess. I think the loss of Norv Turner will really set this offense back. Add in the fact that Gore has had some serious injury problems in the past and I'll just stay away.337 carries 1159 yards6 td's3.4 avg38 catches217 yards5.7 avg
Prior to last season, there had been 49 times when a RB had amassed 2000+ yards in a season. How did they do following season? Glad you asked . . .- 15 had another season with 2000+ yards- 20 had a season with at least 1800 yards- 28 had a season with at least 1600 yards- 30 had a season with at least 1500 yards- 35 had a season with at least 1375 yards (the numbers projected here)Of the rest, most of them did well when they played but got hurt. The projection of 1376 does not seem to have Gore missing any time, so essentially Gore's yardage per game would drop from 136.3 ypg to 86 ypg. That's 50 fewer yards per game and I have a hard time coming up with a scenario where that would happen. Gore may not match his totals from last season, but I would not expect him to fall off a cliff production wise.
GREAT POST!!!!

gore is in the same situaiton as tomlinson was at the beginning of his career.Good back, bad team that only has him to focus around. alot of rushes and a lot of recieving yards. gore had only 9tds last year and for a guy as good as him that has to go up. his YPC will go down, but he will still be a great back to have this year. He will be top 6320 rushes,1450 yards, 75 receptions 500 yards, 12 combined tds
Not sure why people see those numbers as so in favor of Gore keeping up what he's doing or improving. So basically, there's about a 1/3rd chance that a back over 2000 yards will go for under 1375 the next year. That is in no means a sure thing. It also shows that a back over 2000 yards is more likely to go for under 1375 the next year than he is to return to 2000.Now granted, a lot of that is due to injury, but this is Frank Gore we're talking about here, a guy who would've been named Fragile Frank in college except that would have implied he was actually healthy enough at some point to be determined as "fragile" rather than just "broken".
I suppose perception comes into play here. If roughly 60% of these guys hit 1500 yards the following year, the question then becomes is that a higher percentage to get that than guys that were under 1500 yards. I'm pretty sure that the guys in the "not 1500 total yards" bucket would have a lower % than 60% for acutally eclipsing 1500 total yards the next season. Here is the rough math . . .From 1960-2005, there were 600 times where a RB had 1000-1499 total yards in a season. And there 254 seasons when a RB had 1500+ total yards in a season. There were also 49 times a guy had 2000+ total yards from scrimmage.So . . .254 - 49 = 205 remaining RB600 - 49 = 551 remaining RB205/551 = 37%By my math, 37% is lower than 61% (which was the % for the 2000 yard guys). I'm sure I may have faulty logic in here somewhere and my math may not be 100%, but that's how I read it.
another great post.

what this guy above is basically saying is that he would rather take a guy that either has never had 2000 yards, as the 3rd or 4th overall, or someone in the downside of their career who is coming off a bad/injury prone year. nice. i wish they were in my leaguesIf you were to take every player out that has ever been hurt, then you would be taking rudy johnson as the 4th overall. that is fine, but there is absolutely 0 upside to what he has done and you might as well trade down
Well, from now I'll just make a blank post and give you edit priviledges on it so you can continue to speak for me.Please, show me where I ever said that you should take player X over Gore? My only point is that people are refuting low-end Gore numbers by saying it's highly unlikely to happen because historically 2000 yard backs have had great success the next year, and then posted numbers that are far from impossible, and actually quite weak in terms of that argument.Anytime someone posts numbers below that 1375 mark everyone jumps down their throat because ONLY 4 out of every 10 guys that go for 2000 drop below that number the next year. Meanwhile, 6 out of 10 go above that number next year (holy cow 6 out of 10 that's basically 100%!!!!

).Meanwhile, people are posting 2k+ from Gore left and right without anyone mentioning the statistics behind that while the numbers posted by a Gore-backer tell us that historically a player is more likely to drop below 1375 than he is to eclipse 2000 again.Now, I'm not saying that any player is more likely to eclipse that number, or that you should treat Gore like he's going to go for 1200 total yards or anything along those lines. All I'm saying is that it's absurd that people can post stats to show how unlikely it is for him to drop below 1375yds while a dozen people quote it with "Great Post!", and at the same time those same people post projections around 2000yds which according to the SAME set of statistics is even LESS likely to happen than the thing they just quoted as a great study while no one calls them out on doing the SAME thing they're chastizing someone else for (whew, quite a run-on there).You can't call someone out for something being improbable because it only happened 16/51 times (especially with the zest that people keep applying to that) while at the same time projecting something that has happened only 15/51 times itself.Either the historical data influences your projections or it doesn't. You can't have it both ways and use it against someone else's projections while ignoring it in your own. What's being done here is analogous to me saying one of the reasons you should draft Reggie Bush over Joseph Addai is because Addai might end up in a RBBC