Player Spotlight: G. Bernard & B. Green-Ellis, RBs, Cincinnati Ben (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Giovani Bernard & BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RBs, Cincinnati Bengals

Player Page Link: Giovani Bernard Player Page
Player Page Link: BenJarvus Green-Ellis Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
• FBG Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

 

[Beerguzzler]

Is it wrong that I'm hoping for a BJGE injury in the preseason? They need to just make a clean break and let the rook take over.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

The Bengals finished on a 7-1 run last year. With the exception of the final game where a lot of starters were rested the Bengals averaged:

29.85 Carries/Game
133 Rushing Yards/Game
12.2 Points Against/Game
45/55 Run Pass Ratio

BJGE was a stud during this time as well putting together the best stretch of his career with 136 carries for 607 yards and 3 TD’s. Yet it seemed like an organizational priority to get someone who would gradually push BJGE to the side. I’m interpreting it a bit differently. I think the Bengals want to be a team that bludgeons other teams into submission in an NFL that is increasingly taking to the air. To do that, they’re going to want to run the ball 500 times if possible, especially with an O-Line that gave up the 7th most sacks in 2012 and are better maulers than pass protectors. I think if there is any team serving as a model for the Bengals, it’s the 2008 Tennessee Titans who went 13-3 (started 10-0) with Kerry Collins at QB. That team averaged:

31.75 Carries/Game
137.43 Rushing Yards/Game
14.75 Points Against/Game

To do that, they needed another RB who could provide more than just the proverbial 8-10 touches/game ask. In comes Giovani Bernard. Now I don’t want to equate Andy Dalton to Kerry Collins. Dalton clearly has a higher ceiling and also one of the games most potent weapons in AJ Green. But it did feel as if despite what appeared to be decent sized steps forward for Dalton in Year 2, that Lewis and Gruden were frustrated to an extent with his progress and consistency. Whether it was fair or unfair, and you could make good arguments on both sides, Bernard’s drafting along with Tyler Eifert’s show that the Bengals want their offense to become more diverse even if it becomes a more run based attack.

I’m bullish on CIN in 2013. 12-4 bullish. If they check off about 1025 plays from scrimmage, with the acquisition of Bernard, I think the Bengals are even better equipped to move closer to a 50/50 run pass split. It won’t be that, but say 47.5/52.5 – that provides the Bengals 487 rushes which would be 57 more than 2012. If we assume that the Bengals will look to reduce BJGE’s workload by 50-55 carries and provide Bernard the work Cedric Peerman & Bernard Scott got (44 rushes), there could be as many as 155-160 rushes for Bernard, which ignores any passing game contribution he could make. CIN is going to be a very intriguing team to watch in 2013. The AFC North has never looked so vulnerable in terms of the Bengals perhaps becoming a division powerhouse.

Prediction:

BJGE: 221 Rushes, 898 Rushing Yards, 9 TD’s; 9 Receptions 42 Yards, 0 TD’s
Bernard: 157 Rushes 755 Rushing Yards, 2 TD’s; 29 Receptions 243 Receiving Yards 2 TD’s.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

The Bengals finished on a 7-1 run last year. With the exception of the final game where a lot of starters were rested the Bengals averaged:

29.85 Carries/Game

133 Rushing Yards/Game

12.2 Points Against/Game

45/55 Run Pass Ratio

BJGE was a stud during this time as well putting together the best stretch of his career with 136 carries for 607 yards and 3 TD’s. Yet it seemed like an organizational priority to get someone who would gradually push BJGE to the side. I’m interpreting it a bit differently. I think the Bengals want to be a team that bludgeons other teams into submission in an NFL that is increasingly taking to the air. To do that, they’re going to want to run the ball 500 times if possible, especially with an O-Line that gave up the 7th most sacks in 2012 and are better maulers than pass protectors. I think if there is any team serving as a model for the Bengals, it’s the 2008 Tennessee Titans who went 13-3 (started 10-0) with Kerry Collins at QB. That team averaged:

31.75 Carries/Game

137.43 Rushing Yards/Game

14.75 Points Against/Game

To do that, they needed another RB who could provide more than just the proverbial 8-10 touches/game ask. In comes Giovani Bernard. Now I don’t want to equate Andy Dalton to Kerry Collins. Dalton clearly has a higher ceiling and also one of the games most potent weapons in AJ Green. But it did feel as if despite what appeared to be decent sized steps forward for Dalton in Year 2, that Lewis and Gruden were frustrated to an extent with his progress and consistency. Whether it was fair or unfair, and you could make good arguments on both sides, Bernard’s drafting along with Tyler Eifert’s show that the Bengals want their offense to become more diverse even if it becomes a more run based attack.

I’m bullish on CIN in 2013. 12-4 bullish. If they check off about 1025 plays from scrimmage, with the acquisition of Bernard, I think the Bengals are even better equipped to move closer to a 50/50 run pass split. It won’t be that, but say 47.5/52.5 – that provides the Bengals 487 rushes which would be 57 more than 2012. If we assume that the Bengals will look to reduce BJGE’s workload by 50-55 carries and provide Bernard the work Cedric Peerman & Bernard Scott got (44 rushes), there could be as many as 155-160 rushes for Bernard, which ignores any passing game contribution he could make. CIN is going to be a very intriguing team to watch in 2013. The AFC North has never looked so vulnerable in terms of the Bengals perhaps becoming a division powerhouse.

Prediction:

BJGE: 221 Rushes, 898 Rushing Yards, 9 TD’s; 9 Receptions 42 Yards, 0 TD’s

Bernard: 157 Rushes 755 Rushing Yards, 2 TD’s; 29 Receptions 243 Receiving Yards 2 TD’s.

Needs a weekly on the site, can't be any more blunt about it. His writing is leaps and bounds over everyone else here. I would love to hear what Dirty Bird would say in a weekly round table, wouldn't you?

That said I don't always agree with him. I would hope Bernard will get more than 29 receptions but rookies don't typically post huge numbers so maybe Bernard in year 2 will be leaps and bounds better than bernard in 2013. 1,000 total yards and 4 Tds is pretty much a zero most weeks for starting RBs, maybe a few average games mixed in. I see Bernard actually doing a lot between the 20s and I think the yards in total will be something like 60%+ for Bernard and I would probably split this more like 1,200 total yds and 6 TDs for Bernard with about 600-700 yards left over for BJGE and I would agree that he will see a lot of goal line work so perhaps 9-10 TDs is well within reach.

Bernard 190-900-4Td, 36-300-2Td

BJGE 230-850-10Td and not much else, any passes to BJGE are a complete waste with the weapons they have at WR/TE/HB.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Here's my take (non-projection).

I think BJGE was born to be a serviceable NFL backup. I think talent will win out in Cincy which will result in an eventual Lion's share of carries for the rookie. This seems to differ from the general perception on this front.

BJGE stepped up admirably in NE, but let's face it, the deck was stacked in his favor, especially that first year. In Cincinnati, he has done exactly what you might have expected. Nothing special, nothing exciting, below average for a starter.

Everybody wants to talk about BJGE keeping most of the early down work. Why? He was easily one of the worst early down rushers in the league last year. Among guys with 50+ 1st down rushes, he ranked 39th in YPC. The guys worse were Ballard (just replaced), Jennings (let go by the Jags), and Wells (currently unemployed). The two guys ABOVE him were Alex Green (team replaced him with 17 backs in the draft) and Michael Turner (also unemployed).

If Bernard can prove he can avoid turnovers and pass-protect, he will play. There is just no reason outside of those to trot BJGE out there to get his 3 yards on every 1st and 2nd down. I'm not saying he'll take every carry. I'm just saying I don't see him being a "complement" to BJGE. I see it more the other way around.

 

[T with T]

Is it wrong that I'm hoping for a BJGE injury in the preseason? They need to just make a clean break and let the rook take over.

agreed 100 percent.. It might take that for the bengals to let him start which is ######ed

 

[Phenix]

Is it wrong that I'm hoping for a BJGE injury in the preseason? They need to just make a clean break and let the rook take over.

agreed 100 percent.. It might take that for the bengals to let him start which is ######ed

Wishing and hoping for injury is bad karma, you reap what you sow my friend.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

There is just no reason outside of those to trot BJGE out there to get his 3 yards on every 1st and 2nd down.

The Bengals, and Marvin Lewis, have been content with that going all the way back to Rudi Johnson. They seem to value a back that can consitently answer the bell, run into the line and get positive yardage and wear down the defense while they take their occasional deep shots downfield. That's been their offensive m.o. for years and with their defense better than ever, I don't see it changing. I think Gio carves out the third down role this season before possibly taking over next season.

BJGE 950 yds rushing, 8 TDs; 14 rec - 135 yds rec

Gio Bernard 615 yds rushing 3 TDs; 42 rec - 325 yds rec, 2 TDs

Both backs inconsistent RB3s/bye week fillers

 

[Lord Fantasy]

In mocks I've seen these backs go in the same round and even right next to each other.

It's as if there's a battle between the Shiny-New-Toy Rookie camp and the Not-So-Fast Veteran camp.

Without more ADP seperation I don't see how you find the value here. The Law Firm doesn't have much upside. And even if Bernard is amazing the Bengals are going to use the other guy to pound the rock.

As Dr. Ocotopus suggested this may end up with decent year-end stats for both backs, but week-to-week inconsistency.

 

[zamboni]

Without more ADP seperation I don't see how you find the value here.

I agree. I think the value comes in dynasty/keeper leagues with Bernard, although it's hardly a secret that the rook will likely be the guy in 2014 and beyond.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Whatever the totals end up being, I think the PPG will flip about halfway through the season.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

There is just no reason outside of those to trot BJGE out there to get his 3 yards on every 1st and 2nd down.

The Bengals, and Marvin Lewis, have been content with that going all the way back to Rudi Johnson. They seem to value a back that can consitently answer the bell, run into the line and get positive yardage and wear down the defense while they take their occasional deep shots downfield. That's been their offensive m.o. for years and with their defense better than ever, I don't see it changing. I think Gio carves out the third down role this season before possibly taking over next season.

BJGE 950 yds rushing, 8 TDs; 14 rec - 135 yds rec

Gio Bernard 615 yds rushing 3 TDs; 42 rec - 325 yds rec, 2 TDs

Both backs inconsistent RB3s/bye week fillers

And Marvin Lewis has never won a playoff game since he's been with the team. Maybe they want to try something new, like not put themselves in a giant hole on most 2nd downs?

It's true Cinci likes to grind it out. But I don't anything says they HAVE to grind it out with a guy who isn't getting it done. Cincinnati had their choice of every grind it out back in the class this year and passed up on all of them in favor of Bernard. So either they DO want to try to get some yards in the running game for a change, or they just love BJGE and just wanted to get him some change of pace help. I think the former is more likely at this point. You can make a case for the latter, and many have, but I'm not buying it.

Marvin's been there a long time, and hasn't been horrible. But I think everybody knows it won't last forever without a playoff W or two VERY soon.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Bengals OC Jay Gruden hinted the carry split between BenJarvus Green-Ellis and rookie Giovani Bernard could end up being 50-50.
As the veteran incumbent and more traditional runner, Green-Ellis is a near lock to open as the Week 1 starter. But speedy Bernard gives the Bengals' run game juice and big-play ability it hasn't had since the days of Ickey Woods. A "thunder and lightning" approach would make sense, assuming Bernard holds his own in camp. Green-Ellis isn't worth his current seventh-round ADP.

 

[cvnpoka]

There is just no reason outside of those to trot BJGE out there to get his 3 yards on every 1st and 2nd down.

The Bengals, and Marvin Lewis, have been content with that going all the way back to Rudi Johnson. They seem to value a back that can consitently answer the bell, run into the line and get positive yardage and wear down the defense while they take their occasional deep shots downfield. That's been their offensive m.o. for years and with their defense better than ever, I don't see it changing. I think Gio carves out the third down role this season before possibly taking over next season.

BJGE 950 yds rushing, 8 TDs; 14 rec - 135 yds rec

Gio Bernard 615 yds rushing 3 TDs; 42 rec - 325 yds rec, 2 TDs

Both backs inconsistent RB3s/bye week fillers

ya this is my feeling. i do like bjge at where he is being drafted. could see 1200 yfs and 10 tds as the staff is loathe to trust rookie rbs.

 

[Boston]

BGJE is a hard-working RB who has gotten the most out of his talent...very easy guy to root for...he has one fatal flaw though (actually two)...he is useless in the passing game and not a threat to rip off any big plays...that is not very desirable for a RB in the NFL in 2013...he is a RB that can help any team but he's also a back that a team will always be looking to replace once they get a taste of him...that means his value this year will be tied into how good Bernard is and how well Bernard can run between the tackles (because we know exactly what Benny is)...if he's not ready for prime-time than Benny will be a big piece of the offense...yet, if Bernard plays like the first RB drafted than I think Cincy will have zero issues reducing Benny's role this year...I'm not a big fan of letting pre-season dictate my draft-board with one big exception...rookie RBs...that is the one area you can potentially get a feel whether a guy "has it"...due to that I will hold off on really committing a value to either RB until I see Bernard play a few games this August but right now I am very intrigued by him...

 

[TheWick]

BJGE is better than Blount and Doug Martin is better than Gio...but this will end much the same way. Gio will get the lions share.

180 carries 800 yards 6 TDs

49 rec 425 yards 1 TD

 

[cheese]

There is just no reason outside of those to trot BJGE out there to get his 3 yards on every 1st and 2nd down.

The Bengals, and Marvin Lewis, have been content with that going all the way back to Rudi Johnson. They seem to value a back that can consitently answer the bell, run into the line and get positive yardage and wear down the defense while they take their occasional deep shots downfield. That's been their offensive m.o. for years and with their defense better than ever, I don't see it changing. I think Gio carves out the third down role this season before possibly taking over next season.

BJGE 950 yds rushing, 8 TDs; 14 rec - 135 yds rec

Gio Bernard 615 yds rushing 3 TDs; 42 rec - 325 yds rec, 2 TDs

Both backs inconsistent RB3s/bye week fillers

And Marvin Lewis has never won a playoff game since he's been with the team. Maybe they want to try something new, like not put themselves in a giant hole on most 2nd downs? It's true Cinci likes to grind it out. But I don't anything says they HAVE to grind it out with a guy who isn't getting it done. Cincinnati had their choice of every grind it out back in the class this year and passed up on all of them in favor of Bernard. So either they DO want to try to get some yards in the running game for a change, or they just love BJGE and just wanted to get him some change of pace help. I think the former is more likely at this point. You can make a case for the latter, and many have, but I'm not buying it.

Marvin's been there a long time, and hasn't been horrible. But I think everybody knows it won't last forever without a playoff W or two VERY soon.

You can count on 1 hand the coaches with more job security than Marvin. The team and the city realize exactly where they were when he arrived and where the Bengals are now. I really don't know how the distribution will go, but he can do what he wants.

 

[Beerguzzler]

I've never been so happy to see a team on hard knocks since I won the lottery in my dynasty league this year. I hope Gio gets a lot of air time and we get to see some of those conversations from the coaching staff regarding the running game.

It's really hard to pass up on Gio as he's really the only 3 down back I see in the draft.

 

[Art Vandalay]

What is the shark move here.

Do you take Gio early and hope he pans out and that his catching abilty allows him to become a 3 down option.

Or do you take the Goal line touch's and BGE late?

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Everybody seems to assume BJGE will get all of the goal-line work. I see it (at least speculation of it) being reported that way a lot too. Bit I'm not sure why that would be a given.

Similar to the thought of why let him have the majority of early down work when he's not been doing well in that capacity, I though I'd check his goal-line performance. It's not a total surprise that he doesn't do very well. It's interesting that's he's again very similar to Turner. He got a ton of goal-line work (he and Turner had the top attempts over the last two years), but his ratio was well below average.

From the 2, he went 10 for 25. Form the 1, he went 9 for 21. Both ratios are near the bottom of the pile for guys with reasonable attempts. Turner was about the same, but he's been dumped of course.

So if you've got a shiny new back on the team who actually did reasonably well on the goal-line in college, why is it out of the question that you give him a shot on the goal-line if he's running well? Oddly it seems like people just assume BJGE has been a good pounder because he has decent size and doesn't have much big-play potential. But he really doesn't seem to stand out at anything, INCLUDING goal-line work. He's a reasonably competent, generally sure-handed pro. But that's really all.

 

[T with T]

Is it wrong that I'm hoping for a BJGE injury in the preseason? They need to just make a clean break and let the rook take over.

agreed 100 percent.. It might take that for the bengals to let him start which is ######ed

Wishing and hoping for injury is bad karma, you reap what you sow my friend.

not wishing for that just said that might have to happen before bengals realize who real stud is sorry you didn't understand what I said.

 

[(HULK)]

Everybody seems to assume BJGE will get all of the goal-line work. I see it (at least speculation of it) being reported that way a lot too. Bit I'm not sure why that would be a given.

Similar to the thought of why let him have the majority of early down work when he's not been doing well in that capacity, I though I'd check his goal-line performance. It's not a total surprise that he doesn't do very well. It's interesting that's he's again very similar to Turner. He got a ton of goal-line work (he and Turner had the top attempts over the last two years), but his ratio was well below average.

From the 2, he went 10 for 25. Form the 1, he went 9 for 21. Both ratios are near the bottom of the pile for guys with reasonable attempts. Turner was about the same, but he's been dumped of course.

So if you've got a shiny new back on the team who actually did reasonably well on the goal-line in college, why is it out of the question that you give him a shot on the goal-line if he's running well? Oddly it seems like people just assume BJGE has been a good pounder because he has decent size and doesn't have much big-play potential. But he really doesn't seem to stand out at anything, INCLUDING goal-line work. He's a reasonably competent, generally sure-handed pro. But that's really all.

Preseason results seem to indicate that Gio will get the goalline carries. I think he's being criminally undervalued right now.

 

[T with T]

here's a tidbit for you to for all the people that assume that GIO can't score goalline, he is actually a stud at GL work and should be getting goalline work

I may not be a coach in the National Football League, but I am pretty high on Bernard as well, especially from a fantasy perspective. Many thought that Green-Ellis’ presence would hinder the immediate fantasy production of the rookie, but after four preseason games, it may turn out to be the other way around. Those same people felt that Bernard wouldn’t be as good in fantasy because he wouldn’t see work in goal line situations. If the preseason is any indication, he’ll be very busy in that department. In four games, Bernard scored three rushing touchdowns, all of which came from inside the five-yard line. Green-Ellis, on the other hand, failed to score. Last year, Green-Ellis was atrocious in the red zone. In 43 attempts from inside the 20, BJGE averaged just 2.2 yards per carry. Bernard is clearly the more dynamic, explosive back, and in my eyes, it’s only a matter of time before he takes over as the lead back in that offense.
Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/fantasy/2013/08/30/fantasy-football-2013-giovani-bernards-stock-is-rising/?RTyzZizkmCGd6fMo.99

 

[QuizGuy66]

I rate BJGE as undraftable (though he was taken #130 - RB40) in my 10-teamer (offensive players only)

Gio is going to be the big dog - he got basically all the goal-line carries in the preseason.

Law firm will spell him and pass protect. He may even be the nominal week one starter.

But I can't imagine Gio getting less than 20 touches a game and that's all he'll need to be a stud.

Went RB24 (#64 overall) in my draft and I'm kicking myself a little for not taking him instead of Lacy at #49 (RB20) but I already had AJ and don't like doing the RB/WR thing on the same team.

He'll have some very happy owners this year I think.

-QG

 

[Phenix]

I'm in love with this guy, seems to be a big love in dyno but not in redraft however from what I'm seeing.

Got him in the 12 of a 10 team standard redraft, thought that was great, but many others seem to be down on him for this year cuz of bjge.

190/810/6

40/245/2