Player Spotlight: Greg Jennings (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Greg Jennings, WR, Green Bay Packers

Player Page Link: Greg Jennings Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[nightmare]

I'll be the first one to get blasted-800 yards 6 TDs.

No way does he come close to getting a TD every 5 catches.

I thought G Jennings production was a lot of big catches down the middle and

beating the safety for the TD.

I think with A Rodgers in there it will be the short stuff to Driver and Lee.

Goal line will be Lee and Grant.

A Rodger could throw for 3500/20 with no Packer seeing more then 7 td's

with the exception of Driver getting 8.

This board LOVES Jennings and I hope a lot of people reach for him on draft day

(I'm a Jennings owner in a keeper)

 

[LBH]

I think Jenning is a talented WR but a lot of his production last year cam from TDs and now hes got a new QB that Im not convinced can be as productive or healthy as Favre was. I also think Driver is WR #1 in that offense

65 900 7

 

[a_troll00]

I'll be the first one to get blasted-800 yards 6 TDs. No way does he come close to getting a TD every 5 catches. I thought G Jennings production was a lot of big catches down the middle and beating the safety for the TD. I think with A Rodgers in there it will be the short stuff to Driver and Lee. Goal line will be Lee and Grant. A Rodger could throw for 3500/20 with no Packer seeing more then 7 td's with the exception of Driver getting 8. This board LOVES Jennings and I hope a lot of people reach for him on draft day (I'm a Jennings owner in a keeper)

I definitely agree with you here. If you want GB receivers, Driver and Lee are the plays here. Favre was really good at hitting Jennings deep, but Favre isn't around anymore.55 receptions 900 yds 6-7 TDs. He is definitely overvalued this year.

 

[Sabertooth]

Jennings is by far the best receiver after the catch in Green Bay. Aaron Rodgers' health is going to be key here. But I think Rodgers and Jennings mesh well together. This is the AR highlight reel from the Dallas game last season. As you can see, he hits Jennings more than anyone else. I don't think you can just project that out over a season but he is obviously comfortable with Jennings. Greg is the best offensive weapon the Packers have. He just is. Last season he averaged about 5 more yards per catch than Driver and about 2 more YAC yards per catch. He is a prime candidate for dominance.

77 catches 1100 yards, 11 touchdowns

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

As you can see, he hits Jennings more than anyone else.

Nope. Driver caught 7 passes from Rodgers, Jennings caught 5.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Another Bust and I feel a sell high in Dyansty Leagues. Not worth the top 15 price you have to pay at the position. You cna get Driver 2-3 rounds later for Pete's sake.

56 recpetions 800 yds 6 TD...not awful but nothing like the double digits he posted last season.

 

[TheGrimReaper]

I have to agree with the consensus here. Jennings is being way overvalued at this point. IF you want him, its going to cost a 4th round pick. He is not going to hit 12 TD's again on just 53 recpts. LY was an anomoly, a spike in production. Even if Favre was coming back, Jennings would not produce those type of TD totals year over year. He is, IMO, on par with Driver as the best two recieving options in GNB. The thing is McCarthy likes to spread the wealth, so year over year, one would expect to see different receivers of equal value alternating as the leader in production. I see Jennings at:

65 recpts // 975 yards at 15.0 per recpt // 7 TD's.

In a ppr format, that puts him at a mid 20's ranking. Better value can be had than what he currently costs.

 

[cmv5]

I'll be the first one to get blasted-800 yards 6 TDs. No way does he come close to getting a TD every 5 catches. I thought G Jennings production was a lot of big catches down the middle and beating the safety for the TD. I think with A Rodgers in there it will be the short stuff to Driver and Lee. Goal line will be Lee and Grant. A Rodger could throw for 3500/20 with no Packer seeing more then 7 td's with the exception of Driver getting 8. This board LOVES Jennings and I hope a lot of people reach for him on draft day (I'm a Jennings owner in a keeper)

I think the love affair with Jennings ended when Favre retired. All I see lately are people bashing him and a growing love for the undervalued Driver. So Driver who turns 34 in February is going to catch 8 touchdowns, one touchdown away from his career high? I don't see it. Back on topic. I don't see Jennings getting 12 touchdowns this year but he did show me the ability to make yards after the catch. I expect a drop in ridiculously long touchdowns and an increase in receptions and short passes turning into longer gains. This is still only his third year and he missed three games so there is room for improvement in other areas. I think he will be in the range of 1200 yards and 9 touchdowns.

 

[Sabertooth]

As you can see, he hits Jennings more than anyone else.

Nope. Driver caught 7 passes from Rodgers, Jennings caught 5.

I was talking about in the highlight reel. But I just looked back at the stats and again Driver had more catches for a lesser average (7 for 66) then Jenning (5 for 87). It further illustrates the point that Jennings is more dangerous than Driver. He also scored in the game. So bad word choice on my part. I should have stated that Jennings was more productive than Driver. The fact remains that Jennings is a rising star in the league. He's the best offensive weapon on a team the scored a lot of points last season. Rodgers is the key to Jennings. If both stay healthy, the sky is the limit.

 

[H.K.]

Jennings FF value last season came from one source: Long TD's. His six longest TD receptions last season averaged over 60 yards (57,41,82,60, 80, and 44 yards). This will never happen again for Jennings in his career, let alone in back to back seasons. Since those six plays produced 36% of his fantasy production last season in PPR (44% of it in non-ppr), right off the bat it is easy to see why his production will plummet in 2008.

Oh, and for those thinking the long TD's will be replaced by shorter ones, think again:

2007 Red zone targets

Driver 17 for 2 TD's

Jones 11 for 0 TD's

Jennings 11 for 6 TD's

Jennings is not the primary red zone option, he doesn't even claim the second place spot out right, either.

There is also the common misconception that Jennings emerged as the new WR1 in Green Bay....this is 100% false. Lost in all the Jennings hyperbole from this off-season is the drop in targets he saw in 2007. In 2006 (14 games) Jennings had 105 targets (7.5/game), this past year (13 games) Jennings only had 84 targets (6.5/game).

Let’s take a look at the entire Packer WR corps for 2007 Targets per Game:

Driver 8.1

Jennings 6.5

Jones 5.0

But what about the end of the year? Targets the last five games of the season (starters benched Week 17, so numbers are from weeks 12-16):

Driver 8.4

Jennings 5.8

Jones 4.0

The gap widened between Driver and Jennings, not closed. Driver was targeted more than Jennings in each of those games, as well, so there was not one game with a large differential to skew the numbers. The myth that Jennings saw an increased role as the season progressed is 100% false.

People thinking Rodgers will throw to Jennings because he is his new "favorite" receiver do not take into account that the same system (WCO) is being run by the same people (McCarthy & Philbin). The Green Bay offense will stay the same which means that most of the time, Driver will still play the Z and Jennings will be the X. Other than QB, nothing has changed and Driver will still be the #1 WR for the Packers.

The one thing that will be different for the Packers is that they have lost one of best QB's to ever play the game. Favre did not pull a Marino and limp toward the finish line his final season, either. The guy was still playing at an elite level, as evidenced by the fact that he was one of only five QB's in the NFL to throw for over 4,000 yards and 28 TD's last year. Nobody will ever replace Favre, but for the purposes of this discussion, Rodgers certainly isn't going to replace over 4,000 yards & 28 TD's in 2008....he'll be lucky to produce 3/4 of it.

From season to season, players don't produce the same numbers. They either get better or worse. Jennings is in the perfect position to produce far below last year's numbers.

14 Games (remember he only played 14 in 2006, 13 in 2007)

71 Targets

41 Receptions

574 Yards

3 TD

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Its a little shocking how FAR down people are on Jennings this year. I can certainly understand some trepidation with Favre no longer his QB, but Jennings is good. Real good.

He won a starting spot in his second game of his career. (2006) He played very well during the first 4 starts.

6/67/1

3/101/1

5/86/0

5/105/1

He then sprained an ankle in his next game. Sat out one week, and then played 8 of the next nine games, reinjuring the ankle at some point during that stretch. He was just never the same after that injury.

In 2007, Jennings started out by missing the first two games with an injury. He went on to post 53/920/12, before sitting out a meaningless finale. Over 16 games that would project to 65/1132/15. or maybe a better way of looking at it is to take the 17 healthy games he's played in his career. The totals? 72/1279/15.

I can accept the notion that there is instability with Favre retired. I can also accept the idea that Jennings may have a slightly higher injury risk than average. I also understand that relying on TDs as a major part of your fantasy scoring isn't generally as good as yardage totals.

What I don't get is how far down people are on him. I have watched every game of his pro career. He has made big plays in the majority of games that he's been healthy for. Whether it be preseason, regular season, or playoffs, Jennings has just made big plays.

Also this quote from H.K. is priceless.



Oh, and for those thinking the long TD's will be replaced by shorter ones, think again:

2007 Red zone targets

Driver 17 for 2 TD's

Jones 11 for 0 TD's

Jennings 11 for 6 TD's

So the Packers threw to Driver and Jones 28 times in the red zone and got 2 TDs. They threw to Jennings 11 times and got 6 TDs. That is supposed to be a negative for Jennings? Isn't it just possible that Jennings will get those 17 looks this year instead of Driver? Isn't it also possible that Favre threw to Driver more often because of their long history together? Driver is 34, which is a year past the critical age for WRs. Jennings is 24, and a rising star in this league. Is it really that hard to envision Jennings and Driver swapping targets numbers?

Finally, to counter this long TD argument, the WCO is predicated on taking short passes and making them into long gains. That is precisely how Jennings scored the majority of his long TDs. Not the long bomb from Favre. (I would also argue that until 2007, the bomb was the weakest part of Favre's game. Rodgers could possibly be better at it.) Is it likely that Jennings repeats his 6 TDs from greater than 40 yards again this season? It would be quite an accomplishment, but he's definitely shown he has the skills to do it.

82/1200/10

 

[Cenobite]

by H.K. and I share the sentiments regarding G.J. That said, I think your numbers are a bit low but I too see a significant drop off - something like 65/900/7

 

[H.K.]

Also this quote from H.K. is priceless.



Oh, and for those thinking the long TD's will be replaced by shorter ones, think again:

2007 Red zone targets

Driver 17 for 2 TD's

Jones 11 for 0 TD's

Jennings 11 for 6 TD's

So the Packers threw to Driver and Jones 28 times in the red zone and got 2 TDs. They threw to Jennings 11 times and got 6 TDs. That is supposed to be a negative for Jennings?

Absolutely, well, at least for those that recognize that TD's are extremely variable for WR's from year to year.Here are the numbers from 2006 Inside the Opponents 20:

Donald Driver 27 targets 8 TD's

Greg Jennings 11 targets 0 TD's

Pretty big difference of TD production by Jennings on the same number of targets, isn't it? Most people were not projecting Driver to have only 2 TD's prior to last season based on this data, either....but he did.

Brings up another important comparision though, here is the combined Red Zone Data for 2006 & 2007:

Driver 44 Targets for 10 TD's

Jennings 22 Targets for 6 TD's

The numbers speak for themselves.

 

[fightingillini]

IMO, Jennings will be one of the more overvalued WRs this year. His value is based on TDs, and with Rodgers now starting, I don't believe he can come near matching his TD output from last year. The Packers have a lot of weapons to spread the ball around.....Driver, Lee, Jones. And I also expect the Pack to run the ball a lot more and allow Rodgers to manage the game. I don't see Rodgers slinging the ball all over the field like Favre did.

65 rec, 960 yds, 7 TD

Note that this isn't a knock on Jennings ability.......

 

[Banger]

Also this quote from H.K. is priceless.



Oh, and for those thinking the long TD's will be replaced by shorter ones, think again:

2007 Red zone targets

Driver 17 for 2 TD's

Jones 11 for 0 TD's

Jennings 11 for 6 TD's

So the Packers threw to Driver and Jones 28 times in the red zone and got 2 TDs. They threw to Jennings 11 times and got 6 TDs. That is supposed to be a negative for Jennings?

Absolutely, well, at least for those that recognize that TD's are extremely variable for WR's from year to year.Here are the numbers from 2006 Inside the Opponents 20:

Donald Driver 27 targets 8 TD's

Greg Jennings 11 targets 0 TD's

Pretty big difference of TD production by Jennings on the same number of targets, isn't it? Most people were not projecting Driver to have only 2 TD's prior to last season based on this data, either....but he did.

Brings up another important comparision though, here is the combined Red Zone Data for 2006 & 2007:

Driver 44 Targets for 10 TD's

Jennings 22 Targets for 6 TD's

The numbers speak for themselves.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Also this quote from H.K. is priceless.



Oh, and for those thinking the long TD's will be replaced by shorter ones, think again:

2007 Red zone targets

Driver 17 for 2 TD's

Jones 11 for 0 TD's

Jennings 11 for 6 TD's

So the Packers threw to Driver and Jones 28 times in the red zone and got 2 TDs. They threw to Jennings 11 times and got 6 TDs. That is supposed to be a negative for Jennings?

Absolutely, well, at least for those that recognize that TD's are extremely variable for WR's from year to year.Here are the numbers from 2006 Inside the Opponents 20:

Donald Driver 27 targets 8 TD's

Greg Jennings 11 targets 0 TD's

Pretty big difference of TD production by Jennings on the same number of targets, isn't it? Most people were not projecting Driver to have only 2 TD's prior to last season based on this data, either....but he did.

Brings up another important comparision though, here is the combined Red Zone Data for 2006 & 2007:

Driver 44 Targets for 10 TD's

Jennings 22 Targets for 6 TD's

The numbers speak for themselves.

Counting anything Greg Jennings did after week 5 of 2006 is not helping to analyze what Jennings really has to offer. He played through a sprained ankle that should have kept him sidelined. He had no explosion in and out of his breaks. You consistently bashed Jennings all year last seaon, stating he can't keep this up. The numbers will catch up with him you said. They didn't in 2007. Jennings proved you wrong by continuing to score TDs. Now you are bashing him again. At what point will you admit he's good?

I do get that TDs are a big variable from year to year. (No WR in the league has averaged more than 11 TDs over the last 3 years.) My point is that I don't think Jennings will need 12 TDs in 2008 to maintain his production. He's got the talent to put up many more yards. So even if he slips to 8-10 TDs, adding 200-300 more yards will put him at last years levels. (Not a stretch when you consider he played in only 13 games.)

Simply put, Jennings is the best playmaker the Packers have. I think nearly every Packer fan would admit that Driver isn't the same player he once was. The reason the TDs were down for Driver was because he lost explosiveness. He's still a crafty vet, and no doubt will be a vital part of the Packer offense in 2008. He's just no longer in Jennings' class in terms of talent on the field.

 

[H.K.]

Counting anything Greg Jennings did after week 5 of 2006 is not helping to analyze what Jennings really has to offer. He played through a sprained ankle that should have kept him sidelined. He had no explosion in and out of his breaks.

You consistently bashed Jennings all year last seaon, stating he can't keep this up. The numbers will catch up with him you said. They didn't in 2007. Jennings proved you wrong by continuing to score TDs. Now you are bashing him again. At what point will you admit he's good?

Link to the bashing? Also, the numbers did catch up to him. Jennings averaged 74 yards and a TD per game for the first eleven he played in, then averaged 48 yards and .75 TD's a game the final four (includes his 2 TD playoff game vs. SEA).

It is a question of opportunity. It always has been. In the 15 games Jennings played last season, he had four receptions or fewer in 10 of them. Consistent production off so few opportunites is not sustainable. He proved me right.

I do get that TDs are a big variable from year to year. (No WR in the league has averaged more than 11 TDs over the last 3 years.) My point is that I don't think Jennings will need 12 TDs in 2008 to maintain his production. He's got the talent to put up many more yards. So even if he slips to 8-10 TDs, adding 200-300 more yards will put him at last years levels. (Not a stretch when you consider he played in only 13 games.)

Adding 300 yards and "dropping" to 8-10 TD's puts him in the Top 10. He'll need a substantial increase in targets and receptions just to replicate the 364 yards which came from his six longest TD receptions in 2007. Since Jennings had 53 reception for 920 yards, that means that on his 47 other receptions last year, he only averaged 11.8 per catch. Replacing the yardage on those six long TD's would require an increase of 20 receptions at 14 yards a catch just to get back to the same yardage he had last year, and adding another 200-300 on top of it would would take another 15-20 receptions.

Now he's up around 90 receptions, that's quite a stretch IMO, even if he plays all 16 games (something he has never done).

Simply put, Jennings is the best playmaker the Packers have. I think nearly every Packer fan would admit that Driver isn't the same player he once was. The reason the TDs were down for Driver was because he lost explosiveness. He's still a crafty vet, and no doubt will be a vital part of the Packer offense in 2008. He's just no longer in Jennings' class in terms of talent on the field.

This is your opinion, which you are entitled. Of course, Driver had the 90 yard playoff TD and went to the Pro Bowl, both of which supply contradictory evidence to you position.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

HK - is Jennings this year's Brandon Jacobs for you? You must own Jennings in a league.

 

[rzrback77]

Greg Jennings has showed a lot of promise in his first two seasons, putting up 45 catches as a rookie and then moving up to 53 a year ago. I don't see much of a bump at Green Bay and think that Rodgers will move comfortably into the starting QB slot, but there remains lot of competition for targets in Packerland. Donald Driver is the ultimate professional and younger QBs often develop a comfort quickly with old reliables. James Jones had a solid campaign last year and we are hearing a lot of positives for Jordy Nelson. Doanld Lee filled a nice role at TE. Grant and Jackson are both decent catching RBs out of the backfield. Jennings was a stud last year solely based on 12 TDs and I see that number dropping precipitously in 08. Jennings has also missed two and three games in his two seasons, so he could very well miss a couple of games again.

Greg Jennings 100 targets 58 receptions for 899 yards 15.5 ypc and 5 TDs

 

[moderated]

Jennings is one of the most explosive WR's in the entire NFL.

72 receptions/1116 yards/10 TD's. Only thing holding him back from bigger numbers is the uncertainty of Rogers deep ball. He has all the tools to move into the elite tier of WR's.

 

[gman8343]

64 catches, 1,000 yds, 7 TDs.

 

[mozzy84]

60/900/6

 

[The Man with the Plan]

It's all about Aaron Rodgers. His success or failure is the main determining factor in how Greg Jennings will perform this season.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Also, the numbers did catch up to him. Jennings averaged 74 yards and a TD per game for the first eleven he played in, then averaged 48 yards and .75 TD's a game the final four (includes his 2 TD playoff game vs. SEA).

What isn't pointed out here is that two of these final four games HK is referring to were against the Bears and Giants. What's so special about those games? They were two of the most brutally cold games the Packers have ever played in. Favre was poor in both. The other two games?

4/66/1

6/71/2

Any WR that is taken in a cold weather climate runs the risk of bad performances solely due to weather.

It is a question of opportunity. It always has been. In the 15 games Jennings played last season, he had four receptions or fewer in 10 of them. Consistent production off so few opportunites is not sustainable. He proved me right.

I disagree that you were proven right, although I would agree that Jennings is going to need more targets, ie opportunites to continue to be successful.

Adding 300 yards and "dropping" to 8-10 TD's puts him in the Top 10. He'll need a substantial increase in targets and receptions just to replicate the 364 yards which came from his six longest TD receptions in 2007. Since Jennings had 53 reception for 920 yards, that means that on his 47 other receptions last year, he only averaged 11.8 per catch.

Replacing the yardage on those six long TD's would require an increase of 20 receptions at 14 yards a catch just to get back to the same yardage he had last year, and adding another 200-300 on top of it would would take another 15-20 receptions.

Now he's up around 90 receptions, that's quite a stretch IMO, even if he plays all 16 games (something he has never done).

So are you seriously making the argument that if you take away all his big plays, he's just not that good?

Also, you seem to be trying to make a very complicated formula out of something very simple. Swapping their targets would provide all the opportunity Jennings needs to be highly successful. Jennings is about to enter his third pro season. He's already broken out, and there's no reason to think he can't get better.

Look, Jennings and Santonio Holmes each got 85 targets in 13 games last season. Jennings put up 53/920/12. Holmes 52/942/8.

They are in very similar situations, as each is the "#2" guy behind the established pro bowl vet. Driver and Ward.

Driver (33) got 122 targets, and put up 82/1048/2

Ward (32) got 113 targets and put up 72/736/7

I see two vets that have much more explosive young WRs "behind" them. I am not so sure that will be the way it will be viewed in the not too distant future.

The Man with the Plan has a much better point that Aaron Rodgers success or failure will go a long way in determing how Jennings fares in 2008. There are better picks than Jennings for the top 10 WRs this year no doubt. But IMO he's in the discussion immediately thereafter.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Its unlikely Jennings matches his TD's from last year, even if his targets go up, which i believe they will. GJ will be entering his 3rd year, and Driver is coming to the end of his career. Look for Jennings targets, catches and yards to go up, and a slight decline in TD's.

71, 1125, 10

 

[PranksterJD]

I think Jenning is a talented WR but a lot of his production last year cam from TDs and now hes got a new QB that Im not convinced can be as productive or healthy as Favre was. I also think Driver is WR #1 in that offense65 900 7

55 receptions 900 yds 6-7 TDs. He is definitely overvalued this year.

Another Bust and I feel a sell high in Dyansty Leagues. Not worth the top 15 price you have to pay at the position. You cna get Driver 2-3 rounds later for Pete's sake.56 recpetions 800 yds 6 TD...not awful but nothing like the double digits he posted last season.

14 Games (remember he only played 14 in 2006, 13 in 2007)71 Targets 41 Receptions574 Yards3 TD

by H.K. and I share the sentiments regarding G.J. That said, I think your numbers are a bit low but I too see a significant drop off - something like 65/900/7

60/900/6

If numbers like the ones predicted here come true ( and I'm not sure they won't ), then Jennings is primed to be a very appealing buy-low candidate in 2009.

 

[moderated]

I think Jenning is a talented WR but a lot of his production last year cam from TDs and now hes got a new QB that Im not convinced can be as productive or healthy as Favre was. I also think Driver is WR #1 in that offense65 900 7

55 receptions 900 yds 6-7 TDs. He is definitely overvalued this year.

Another Bust and I feel a sell high in Dyansty Leagues. Not worth the top 15 price you have to pay at the position. You cna get Driver 2-3 rounds later for Pete's sake.56 recpetions 800 yds 6 TD...not awful but nothing like the double digits he posted last season.

14 Games (remember he only played 14 in 2006, 13 in 2007)71 Targets 41 Receptions574 Yards3 TD

by H.K. and I share the sentiments regarding G.J. That said, I think your numbers are a bit low but I too see a significant drop off - something like 65/900/7

60/900/6

If numbers like the ones predicted here come true ( and I'm not sure they won't ), then Jennings is primed to be a very appealing buy-low candidate in 2009.

Based on those numbers he's primed to be an appealing buy-low THIS year.

 

[FUBAR]

Another Bust and I feel a sell high in Dyansty Leagues. Not worth the top 15 price you have to pay at the position. You cna get Driver 2-3 rounds later for Pete's sake.

56 recpetions 800 yds 6 TD...not awful but nothing like the double digits he posted last season.

Bust? Currently overvalued?

I like his talent as much as anyone, but in a redraft, situation often means as much or more than pure talent.

Anyone not expecting a regression in 2008 is kidding themselves.

60 / 900 / 6 as the entire Packers offense suffers a set-back.

Although I must admit, I will be looking to acquire him in the 2nd half of the season.

< 25 / 350 / 2 in the first 8 games

> 35 / 550 / 4 in the second half

 

[PranksterJD]

I think Jenning is a talented WR but a lot of his production last year cam from TDs and now hes got a new QB that Im not convinced can be as productive or healthy as Favre was. I also think Driver is WR #1 in that offense65 900 7

55 receptions 900 yds 6-7 TDs. He is definitely overvalued this year.

Another Bust and I feel a sell high in Dyansty Leagues. Not worth the top 15 price you have to pay at the position. You cna get Driver 2-3 rounds later for Pete's sake.56 recpetions 800 yds 6 TD...not awful but nothing like the double digits he posted last season.

14 Games (remember he only played 14 in 2006, 13 in 2007)71 Targets 41 Receptions574 Yards3 TD

by H.K. and I share the sentiments regarding G.J. That said, I think your numbers are a bit low but I too see a significant drop off - something like 65/900/7

60/900/6

If numbers like the ones predicted here come true ( and I'm not sure they won't ), then Jennings is primed to be a very appealing buy-low candidate in 2009.

Based on those numbers he's primed to be an appealing buy-low THIS year.

Could be. I doubt you find this type of lowballing in non "shark" leagues though. I know I can't get him for anywhere near this price in my hometown "guppy" league, so I'm not sure the idea that he's going to regress this heavily has filtered out that far yet.Another thing is that the posts in here are divided with little middle ground, meaning we could probably figure out with a high percentage which posters own Jennings and which don't.FWIW.... 65/1040/6

 

[bumpman]

Jennings FF value last season came from one source: Long TD's. His six longest TD receptions last season averaged over 60 yards (57,41,82,60, 80, and 44 yards). This will never happen again for Jennings in his career, let alone in back to back seasons. Since those six plays produced 36% of his fantasy production last season in PPR (44% of it in non-ppr), right off the bat it is easy to see why his production will plummet in 2008. Oh, and for those thinking the long TD's will be replaced by shorter ones, think again:2007 Red zone targetsDriver 17 for 2 TD'sJones 11 for 0 TD'sJennings 11 for 6 TD's Jennings is not the primary red zone option, he doesn't even claim the second place spot out right, either.There is also the common misconception that Jennings emerged as the new WR1 in Green Bay....this is 100% false. Lost in all the Jennings hyperbole from this off-season is the drop in targets he saw in 2007. In 2006 (14 games) Jennings had 105 targets (7.5/game), this past year (13 games) Jennings only had 84 targets (6.5/game). Let’s take a look at the entire Packer WR corps for 2007 Targets per Gameriver 8.1Jennings 6.5Jones 5.0But what about the end of the year? Targets the last five games of the season (starters benched Week 17, so numbers are from weeks 12-16)river 8.4Jennings 5.8Jones 4.0The gap widened between Driver and Jennings, not closed. Driver was targeted more than Jennings in each of those games, as well, so there was not one game with a large differential to skew the numbers. The myth that Jennings saw an increased role as the season progressed is 100% false.People thinking Rodgers will throw to Jennings because he is his new "favorite" receiver do not take into account that the same system (WCO) is being run by the same people (McCarthy & Philbin). The Green Bay offense will stay the same which means that most of the time, Driver will still play the Z and Jennings will be the X. Other than QB, nothing has changed and Driver will still be the #1 WR for the Packers.The one thing that will be different for the Packers is that they have lost one of best QB's to ever play the game. Favre did not pull a Marino and limp toward the finish line his final season, either. The guy was still playing at an elite level, as evidenced by the fact that he was one of only five QB's in the NFL to throw for over 4,000 yards and 28 TD's last year. Nobody will ever replace Favre, but for the purposes of this discussion, Rodgers certainly isn't going to replace over 4,000 yards & 28 TD's in 2008....he'll be lucky to produce 3/4 of it.From season to season, players don't produce the same numbers. They either get better or worse. Jennings is in the perfect position to produce far below last year's numbers.14 Games (remember he only played 14 in 2006, 13 in 2007)71 Targets 41 Receptions574 Yards3 TD

Your stats are skewed by the fact that Driver had an amazing 24 targets and 4 redzone looks in the first two games last season in which JENNINGS DID NOT PLAY. Also, your redzone numbers for Driver don't match the FBG numbers. According the FBG and removing the two games that Jennings didn't play, Driver had 11 RZ looks vs Jennings' 11 RZ looks. In other words, in the games that both played, they had exactly the same number of RZ looks. By the way, during those same 13 games, James Jones had 9 RZ looks, making him second behind the Driver/Jennings first place tie. Stats can be manipulated quite a bit.

 

[bumpman]

Counting anything Greg Jennings did after week 5 of 2006 is not helping to analyze what Jennings really has to offer. He played through a sprained ankle that should have kept him sidelined. He had no explosion in and out of his breaks.

You consistently bashed Jennings all year last seaon, stating he can't keep this up. The numbers will catch up with him you said. They didn't in 2007. Jennings proved you wrong by continuing to score TDs. Now you are bashing him again. At what point will you admit he's good?

Link to the bashing?

Here you go:http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...368367&st=0

It basically continues through the entire thread.

 

[moderated]

Although I must admit, I will be looking to acquire him in the 2nd half of the season. < 25 / 350 / 2 in the first 8 games> 35 / 550 / 4 in the second half

He didn't play in the first couple games of the season.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Greg Jennings:

How will one of the greatest Qb's who played the game retiring effect Greg Jennings and his numbers. That's really the question that we need to find out. Jennings had a breakout year, becoming the new No. 1 in Green Bay, catching for nearly 1000 yards and 12 Td's in just 13 games. Clearly if he plays 16 games he's a top 10 WR last year.

Greg Jennings is explosive and he will make some big plays. My guess is that he will represent value because everyone is thinking the same thing, how will he do without Farve. I think he'll do fine and will put him down for about what he had last year in terms of yards (what he was on pace for) but I do think the Td's were a little high, so I'm going to temper that.

68 receptions for 1099 yards and 9 tds

 

[MCguidance]

Ah, I love that HK is still killing him. Jennings saved me...from being last last year. But I do think he will drop off a decent amount. I don't think those numbers are sustainable...unless Rogers has this connection and it goes well from the start.

65 950 7

Oh, and it's nice to see my thread on Jennings make its appearance, ha.

 

[lynx4ben]

I like Greg. I expect similiar numbers to last year as a result of the A-Rod limiting is growth for a year.

60/900 8 TDs

-----------------------------------------------

New experts posting league forming:

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=402665

Act Fast!

 

[FUBAR]

Although I must admit, I will be looking to acquire him in the 2nd half of the season. < 25 / 350 / 2 in the first 8 games> 35 / 550 / 4 in the second half

He didn't play in the first couple games of the season.

We're talking 2008, right?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Counting anything Greg Jennings did after week 5 of 2006 is not helping to analyze what Jennings really has to offer. He played through a sprained ankle that should have kept him sidelined. He had no explosion in and out of his breaks.

You consistently bashed Jennings all year last seaon, stating he can't keep this up. The numbers will catch up with him you said. They didn't in 2007. Jennings proved you wrong by continuing to score TDs. Now you are bashing him again. At what point will you admit he's good?

Link to the bashing?Also, the numbers did catch up to him. Jennings averaged 74 yards and a TD per game for the first eleven he played in, then averaged 48 yards and .75 TD's a game the final four (includes his 2 TD playoff game vs. SEA).

It is a question of opportunity. It always has been. In the 15 games Jennings played last season, he had four receptions or fewer in 10 of them. Consistent production off so few opportunites is not sustainable. He proved me right.

Are you being serious here? I mean really, are you being serious?I am not a huge Jennings fan. I, like most others, expect a tick down in production this year. However, you are being completely unreasonable here.

"Link to the bashing"? Are you freaking serious? You know exactly what he's talking about, don't come across with this snoody "link or it didn't happen LOLZ" crap. You were all over him every week and you know it.

But really, what really, really gets me is this.

Consistent production off so few opportunites is not sustainable. He proved me right.

Let me remind you how this went down last year. EVERY week when Jennings kept putting up numbers you kept spouting that "consistent production off so few opportunities is not sustainable, next week he's going to let you down" crap. And then he would put up great numbers again, and you would come back with the same "next week, you just wait" stuff. Then next week, it was once again "next week, you'll see".But the really, really funny part is people kept saying "you know HK, one week, as EVERY WR does, Jennings is eventually going to have a down week and you're going to come out like a tool and say SEE I TOLD YOU SO even though you were wrong 9 weeks in a row before that".

And guess what, here we are. The guy follows up a season's worth of great games with a 3-42 performance in a game that GB lost 35-7 and here you are with the "he proved me right" stuff. LOL.

This is not meant to be an argument about Jennings next year (I'll get to that later), but holy cow I just had to point out how ridiculous you look to anyone that was following that Jennings thread last year.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Counting anything Greg Jennings did after week 5 of 2006 is not helping to analyze what Jennings really has to offer. He played through a sprained ankle that should have kept him sidelined. He had no explosion in and out of his breaks.

You consistently bashed Jennings all year last seaon, stating he can't keep this up. The numbers will catch up with him you said. They didn't in 2007. Jennings proved you wrong by continuing to score TDs. Now you are bashing him again. At what point will you admit he's good?

Link to the bashing?Also, the numbers did catch up to him. Jennings averaged 74 yards and a TD per game for the first eleven he played in, then averaged 48 yards and .75 TD's a game the final four (includes his 2 TD playoff game vs. SEA).

It is a question of opportunity. It always has been. In the 15 games Jennings played last season, he had four receptions or fewer in 10 of them. Consistent production off so few opportunites is not sustainable. He proved me right.

Are you being serious here? I mean really, are you being serious?I am not a huge Jennings fan. I, like most others, expect a tick down in production this year. However, you are being completely unreasonable here.

"Link to the bashing"? Are you freaking serious? You know exactly what he's talking about, don't come across with this snoody "link or it didn't happen LOLZ" crap. You were all over him every week and you know it.

But really, what really, really gets me is this.

Consistent production off so few opportunites is not sustainable. He proved me right.

Let me remind you how this went down last year. EVERY week when Jennings kept putting up numbers you kept spouting that "consistent production off so few opportunities is not sustainable, next week he's going to let you down" crap. And then he would put up great numbers again, and you would come back with the same "next week, you just wait" stuff. Then next week, it was once again "next week, you'll see".But the really, really funny part is people kept saying "you know HK, one week, as EVERY WR does, Jennings is eventually going to have a down week and you're going to come out like a tool and say SEE I TOLD YOU SO even though you were wrong 9 weeks in a row before that".

And guess what, here we are. The guy follows up a season's worth of great games with a 3-42 performance in a game that GB lost 35-7 and here you are with the "he proved me right" stuff. LOL.

This is not meant to be an argument about Jennings next year (I'll get to that later), but holy cow I just had to point out how ridiculous you look to anyone that was following that Jennings thread last year.

I was going to point this out, but i dont waste my time on people like H.K.

 

[FUBAR]

Counting anything Greg Jennings did after week 5 of 2006 is not helping to analyze what Jennings really has to offer. He played through a sprained ankle that should have kept him sidelined. He had no explosion in and out of his breaks.

You consistently bashed Jennings all year last seaon, stating he can't keep this up. The numbers will catch up with him you said. They didn't in 2007. Jennings proved you wrong by continuing to score TDs. Now you are bashing him again. At what point will you admit he's good?

Link to the bashing?Also, the numbers did catch up to him. Jennings averaged 74 yards and a TD per game for the first eleven he played in, then averaged 48 yards and .75 TD's a game the final four (includes his 2 TD playoff game vs. SEA).

It is a question of opportunity. It always has been. In the 15 games Jennings played last season, he had four receptions or fewer in 10 of them. Consistent production off so few opportunites is not sustainable. He proved me right.

Are you being serious here? I mean really, are you being serious?I am not a huge Jennings fan. I, like most others, expect a tick down in production this year. However, you are being completely unreasonable here.

"Link to the bashing"? Are you freaking serious? You know exactly what he's talking about, don't come across with this snoody "link or it didn't happen LOLZ" crap. You were all over him every week and you know it.

But really, what really, really gets me is this.

Consistent production off so few opportunites is not sustainable. He proved me right.

Let me remind you how this went down last year. EVERY week when Jennings kept putting up numbers you kept spouting that "consistent production off so few opportunities is not sustainable, next week he's going to let you down" crap. And then he would put up great numbers again, and you would come back with the same "next week, you just wait" stuff. Then next week, it was once again "next week, you'll see".But the really, really funny part is people kept saying "you know HK, one week, as EVERY WR does, Jennings is eventually going to have a down week and you're going to come out like a tool and say SEE I TOLD YOU SO even though you were wrong 9 weeks in a row before that".

And guess what, here we are. The guy follows up a season's worth of great games with a 3-42 performance in a game that GB lost 35-7 and here you are with the "he proved me right" stuff. LOL.

This is not meant to be an argument about Jennings next year (I'll get to that later), but holy cow I just had to point out how ridiculous you look to anyone that was following that Jennings thread last year.

I was going to point this out, but i dont waste my time on people like H.K.

Jennings was one of the most consistent WRs last year. Drop the "he proved me right" garbage, when he clearly proved you wrong over the course of 2007. As my post above indicates, I feel he'll be inconsistent in 2008, but that has more to do with Rodgers learning than any lack of opportunities.

 

[Sabertooth]

Counting anything Greg Jennings did after week 5 of 2006 is not helping to analyze what Jennings really has to offer. He played through a sprained ankle that should have kept him sidelined. He had no explosion in and out of his breaks.

You consistently bashed Jennings all year last seaon, stating he can't keep this up. The numbers will catch up with him you said. They didn't in 2007. Jennings proved you wrong by continuing to score TDs. Now you are bashing him again. At what point will you admit he's good?

Link to the bashing?Also, the numbers did catch up to him. Jennings averaged 74 yards and a TD per game for the first eleven he played in, then averaged 48 yards and .75 TD's a game the final four (includes his 2 TD playoff game vs. SEA).

It is a question of opportunity. It always has been. In the 15 games Jennings played last season, he had four receptions or fewer in 10 of them. Consistent production off so few opportunites is not sustainable. He proved me right.

Are you being serious here? I mean really, are you being serious?I am not a huge Jennings fan. I, like most others, expect a tick down in production this year. However, you are being completely unreasonable here.

"Link to the bashing"? Are you freaking serious? You know exactly what he's talking about, don't come across with this snoody "link or it didn't happen LOLZ" crap. You were all over him every week and you know it.

But really, what really, really gets me is this.

Consistent production off so few opportunites is not sustainable. He proved me right.

Let me remind you how this went down last year. EVERY week when Jennings kept putting up numbers you kept spouting that "consistent production off so few opportunities is not sustainable, next week he's going to let you down" crap. And then he would put up great numbers again, and you would come back with the same "next week, you just wait" stuff. Then next week, it was once again "next week, you'll see".But the really, really funny part is people kept saying "you know HK, one week, as EVERY WR does, Jennings is eventually going to have a down week and you're going to come out like a tool and say SEE I TOLD YOU SO even though you were wrong 9 weeks in a row before that".

And guess what, here we are. The guy follows up a season's worth of great games with a 3-42 performance in a game that GB lost 35-7 and here you are with the "he proved me right" stuff. LOL.

This is not meant to be an argument about Jennings next year (I'll get to that later), but holy cow I just had to point out how ridiculous you look to anyone that was following that Jennings thread last year.

Glad to see that the sole member of my Ignore list is still spouting his drivel. H.K. is the worst type of poster.

 

[Sabertooth]

What I don't understand is why everybody assumes Rodgers won't be good when he steps in. Here you have a first round draft pick that only days before the draft was bantered about as being the number 1 overall pick. He has had the opportunity to not only watch and learn from potentially the greatest player in NFL history. He has one of the best coaches in the NFL, especially when it comes to grooming quarterbacks. He plays behind an offensive line that has allowed Brett to be sacked less than once per game. He is a bright, mature kid with great leadership qualities. And best of all, he showed that he can play vs. Dallas last season.

Rodgers' only problem has been durability. He has done everything else as well as anyone could expect or hope. And people think he is going to be a deer in headlights out there. Rodgers, when healthy, will be a good QB. The only way I could see Jennings being held back by Rodgers is if Aaron gets hurt (a distinct possibility but then again, everyone but Brett and Peyton get hurt).

 

[Jon_Moore]

Jennings is apparently going to be a monster value play in 08. The board so far has projected him for an average of 64 receptions, 963 Yards, and 7 Tds. If you believe the breakout year is the 3 year, and he obviously surpassed those totals in 2007, he should easily be better than those projections.

When he was given the opportunity in 2006, and before he got hurt, in 4 games he put up 19 Receptions 359 Yards and 3 tds. Extrapolate over 16 and you get: 76 Receptions for 1436 and 12

In 2007, in 13 games he got 53 for 920 and 12: extrapolate over 16 and you get: 65 Receptions 1132 and 15 tds

Obviously, extrapolation isn't perfect, or even a "good" way to look at data, but it proves a point: He's above and beyond talented.

People say it's an anomaly that he caught 6 touchdowns from so far out. It's an anomaly that he caught 6 red zone tds. All of his tds are anomalies. When everything is an anomaly, guess what, it's not an anomaly. His targets were low and got lower? Yeah, he was still awfully productive though. Driver is 33 and soon to decline, Jennings is 24 and ready to break out in a huge way.

79 Receptions

1146

11 Touchdowns

 

[Splicer]

I don't want to blow people's cover, but anyone else see Jennings as the Reggie Wayne of GB? It sems he is primed to take over the #1 spot as Wayne finally did. Along the way he was very productive as the #2. I could see Driver facing a similar fate as Harrisson in the coming years.

BUY

72-1100-7

 

[bcr8f]

I don't want to blow people's cover, but anyone else see Jennings as the Reggie Wayne of GB? It sems he is primed to take over the #1 spot as Wayne finally did. Along the way he was very productive as the #2. I could see Driver facing a similar fate as Harrisson in the coming years.BUY72-1100-7

Coming years maybe. This year no. Driver was hurt last year and will be back this season.

 

[bcr8f]

Glad to see that the sole member of my Ignore list is still spouting his drivel. H.K. is the worst type of poster.

Naah when it involves Packer players HK's highly entertaining.

 

[gman8343]

I don't want to blow people's cover, but anyone else see Jennings as the Reggie Wayne of GB? It sems he is primed to take over the #1 spot as Wayne finally did. Along the way he was very productive as the #2. I could see Driver facing a similar fate as Harrisson in the coming years.BUY72-1100-7

Coming years maybe. This year no. Driver was hurt last year and will be back this season.

There's room for 2 thousand yard recievers on GB. Those numbers aren't elite by any stretch, I don't think it's a big leap that Jennings could reach them.

 

[Tom Servo]

What I don't understand is why everybody assumes Rodgers won't be good when he steps in. Here you have a first round draft pick that only days before the draft was bantered about as being the number 1 overall pick. He has had the opportunity to not only watch and learn from potentially the greatest player in NFL history. He has one of the best coaches in the NFL, especially when it comes to grooming quarterbacks. He plays behind an offensive line that has allowed Brett to be sacked less than once per game. He is a bright, mature kid with great leadership qualities. And best of all, he showed that he can play vs. Dallas last season.

Rodgers' only problem has been durability. He has done everything else as well as anyone could expect or hope. And people think he is going to be a deer in headlights out there. Rodgers, when healthy, will be a good QB. The only way I could see Jennings being held back by Rodgers is if Aaron gets hurt (a distinct possibility but then again, everyone but Brett and Peyton get hurt).

I think a lot of it is that, with Favre, it was essentially plug and play; you had a good idea what you were going to get. Rogers is an unknown quantity. A number of FF players don't like uncertainty; some thrive on it and see opportunity. Most FF players are Doubting Thomases.

 

[beto]

Hard to see him doing a lot better than last year, but I think he should improve on catches and yards.

68 catches 1050 yards 5 TDs

 

[The Jacket]

55/950/7