Player Spotlight: Jason Campbell (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jason Campbell, QB, Washington Redskins

Player Page Link: Jason Campbell Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[redman]

Well, as one of the resident homers I'll get this one started.

I'm high on Campbell, particularly in Saunders' offense. He started the last seven games and managed to both throw more TD's than INT's (10/6) and also to throw a TD in every game. In only two of those games did he throw more INT's than TD's; he threw no INT's in 3 of those 7 starts. To me, this is very impressive for a rookie, particularly one who didn't have the benefit of having either Portis or a healthy Moss in the lineup.

+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| WK OPP | CMP ATT PYD TD INT | RSH YD TD |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| 11 tam | 19 34 196 2 0 | 6 6 0 || 12 car | 11 23 118 2 1 | 4 7 0 || 13 atl | 18 38 217 1 2 | 2 15 0 || 14 phi | 15 27 182 1 2 | 4 38 0 || 15 nor | 13 28 204 1 0 | 4 4 0 || 16 stl | 13 26 160 1 0 | 1 7 0 || 17 nyg | 21 31 220 2 1 | 3 30 0 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+| TOTAL | 110 207 1297 10 6 | 24 107 0 |+----------+--------------------------+----------------+The weakest part of his stats are the ypa and the completion % (and they're related). These will almost certainly improve IMHO. Both Campbell and Saunders were getting settled and the coaching staff was clearly calling conservative games. I noticed that Gibbs changed from being reluctant - almost apologetic - about benching Brunell for Campbell and referring to Campbell as a question mark, to focusing on other team problems like defense in his pressers. To people who know Gibbs, this meant he was no longer worried about Campbell, which is as high of a compliment as Gibbs will pay to a young QB. He showed a lot of poise and has the confidence of his teammates; for example the speaker in his helmet broke down and he received a garbled play-call and calmly called his own third down play which scored a game winning TD. Campbell was his most impressive when he was allowed (or forced) to air it out. His deep passes are as pretty and accurate as any QB's in the league, which is a nice attribute to have on a team that runs a vertical offense and has a lot of speed at the WR position. He throws a great deep post, and he's been adept at throwing it where only his WR could catch it. He was also adept at accurately throwing crossing passes to, for example, Cooley and hitting him in stride and enabling him to run after the catch. He also checked down well and softened his throws to his RB's. Finally, I was very impressed with his headiness near the goalline, and in particular his ability to feel pressure, roll out, buy time and throw accurately to WR's or TE's who have come free during the added time.

In short, he's used his time on the bench well and has laid an impressive foundation to build upon. If projected over 16 games, his stats would project to:

252/474/2970 22/13 55/245/0

Based upon what I saw, this was not an illusion. He made good decisions and exhibited good command of the offense. The team got a spark from him.

The offense is back intact with, most notably, Portis returning hungry and healthy, and Betts now a proven asset at RB. The only loss of personnel is Dockery at LG, but Randy Wade appears to be a capable and experienced replacement. The defense can't help but improve from last year's disaster, which should only help take pressure off of Campbell and the offense. Saunders, too, has learned what makes this offense tick, namely that they need to establish the run before they can pass successfully.

I think they'll take some of the restraints off of Campbell, which will lead to some more mistakes and a worse TD/INT ratio, but also - with his own improvement - more yards per attempt and more TD's overall, and a better completion %. I think when it's all said and done, you'll see a stat line that looks something like this:

306/528/3696 24/17 65/345/2

That should generate some discussion.

 

[jurb26]

Great post redman. I love Campbell going into this year for all the reasons you stated. The Wash O seems to be hitting it's stride under Saunders and Campbell has spent the past 2 years learning it. Portis coming back and staying healthy is a big key to the overall performance IMO, but we've seen that Betts is capable. I really wish this team had a big, possession type WR to help Cooley in working the short part of the field but beggars can't be choosers I guess. The running game should hlep create fantastic passing lanes anyway. I'm projecting something along the lines of:

Passing: 295 comp., 502 att., 3595 yds, 23 TD, 14 Ints

Rushing: 52 att., 220 yds, 1 TD

 

[fatness]

The only thing I have to add is this: Prior to being made the starter last year, Campbell had no practice time with the first team. Getting all the starter reps in training camp and preseason is going to benefit him.

 

[shadyridr]

23 TD passes? I think you guys are too high on him. Actually I love Campbell and think he is VERY talented but I think Washington is a running team first and foremost. The team will run all day with Portis and Betts. Plus I am not too high on their receiving weapons. Cooley is a GREAT redzone threat and Moss is a GREAT deep threat but he gets hurt too much. After that they have Brandon Lloyd who is a huge disappointment. I can see Campbell having a solid year but those passing numbers seem way too high for me. I think he makes a solid QB2.

3200 yds, 16 tds, 10 ints.

 

[redman]

23 TD passes? I think you guys are too high on him. Actually I love Campbell and think he is VERY talented but I think Washington is a running team first and foremost. The team will run all day with Portis and Betts. Plus I am not too high on their receiving weapons. Cooley is a GREAT redzone threat and Moss is a GREAT deep threat but he gets hurt too much. After that they have Brandon Lloyd who is a huge disappointment. I can see Campbell having a solid year but those passing numbers seem way too high for me. I think he makes a solid QB2.3200 yds, 16 tds, 10 ints.

Here's the thing though. How do you justify 16 TD's in 16 games when he threw 75% of that number in only 7 starts as a first year starter? Were they any less of a running team when he started in 2006? Betts averaged around 25 carries per game for weeks 12-17. IMHO, they'll if anything be less protective of Campbell this year by letting him throw more passes per game. He earned their trust. He averaged 29 passes per start last year, so I bumped him to 33 passes per start for this year. They'll still run the ball a lot, but he'll definitely be getting his chances. Food for thought.

 

[David Yudkin]

In 2005, Brunell had 3050-23-10. What changed so dramatically for the Skins offense that some people have Campbell with almost 700 more yards? I ask this because in some other threads recently some people were suggesting that the Portis/Betts duo would also do 700-800 yards better between them than they did last year. So I'm wondering if the Redskins offense is basically going to be one of the top 5 in the league if these projections come true.

 

[redman]

In 2005, Brunell had 3050-23-10. What changed so dramatically for the Skins offense that some people have Campbell with almost 700 more yards? I ask this because in some other threads recently some people were suggesting that the Portis/Betts duo would also do 700-800 yards better between them than they did last year. So I'm wondering if the Redskins offense is basically going to be one of the top 5 in the league if these projections come true.

Two things changed: Al Saunders and the arm throwing the ball. Brunell has a spotty deep ball and was lacking confidence for a lot of the time that he was throwing it; Campbell does not share those problems. As for Portis-Betts, obviously Portis was injured, however remember that that was Saunders' first season with this team. The team took at least half of the year to absorb his offense, and Saunders took longer than that to figure out that this team needs to establish the run before it can pass (remember Brunell's dink and dunk completion record in week 3 against Houston? That was absurd to most 'Skins fans). Saunders' offense has a history of taking off in year 2. As for a top 5 offense, yes, I can see that happening though I'm not necessarily predicting it. Color me a homer, but I feel very comfortable predicting what I'm predicting here for Campbell though.

 

[shadyridr]

23 TD passes? I think you guys are too high on him. Actually I love Campbell and think he is VERY talented but I think Washington is a running team first and foremost. The team will run all day with Portis and Betts. Plus I am not too high on their receiving weapons. Cooley is a GREAT redzone threat and Moss is a GREAT deep threat but he gets hurt too much. After that they have Brandon Lloyd who is a huge disappointment. I can see Campbell having a solid year but those passing numbers seem way too high for me. I think he makes a solid QB2.3200 yds, 16 tds, 10 ints.

Here's the thing though. How do you justify 16 TD's in 16 games when he threw 75% of that number in only 7 starts as a first year starter? Were they any less of a running team when he started in 2006? Betts averaged around 25 carries per game for weeks 12-17. IMHO, they'll if anything be less protective of Campbell this year by letting him throw more passes per game. He earned their trust. He averaged 29 passes per start last year, so I bumped him to 33 passes per start for this year. They'll still run the ball a lot, but he'll definitely be getting his chances. Food for thought.

Good point. But they got into a ton of shootouts late last year, no? Id assume their defense improves.

 

[dgreen]

I noticed that Gibbs changed from being reluctant - almost apologetic - about benching Brunell for Campbell and referring to Campbell as a question mark, to focusing on other team problems like defense in his pressers. To people who know Gibbs, this meant he was no longer worried about Campbell, which is as high of a compliment as Gibbs will pay to a young QB.

A couple things to add to this.When Patrick Ramsey entered the 2005 season as the starter, you couldn't get Gibbs to completely back him. Gibbs would say things like, "Patrick's our guy right now . We hope he takes us to the playoffs." In Gibbs-speak, that's a putdown. As redman says, Gibbs hasn't even hinted at having any doubts about Campbell once he got a few games under his belt.

At the Laron Landry presser, Gibbs mentioned Campbell twice. Landry and Campbell have the same agent. The agent was at the presser and Gibbs took time to thank him for getting Campbell in on time and said that he was having a good offseason. Gibbs also mentioned that Landry had a good hit on Campbell in college and said he told Landry he's not allowed to hit that QB.

With all my concerns for the Redskins as a homer, Campbell is not one of them. I worry about Dockery leaving and about the WR2 position and about the DL and about the kicking and the punting, but not about the QB. He's only started 7 games in his career and I have absolutely no worries about his play.

 

[redman]

23 TD passes? I think you guys are too high on him. Actually I love Campbell and think he is VERY talented but I think Washington is a running team first and foremost. The team will run all day with Portis and Betts. Plus I am not too high on their receiving weapons. Cooley is a GREAT redzone threat and Moss is a GREAT deep threat but he gets hurt too much. After that they have Brandon Lloyd who is a huge disappointment. I can see Campbell having a solid year but those passing numbers seem way too high for me. I think he makes a solid QB2.

3200 yds, 16 tds, 10 ints.

Here's the thing though. How do you justify 16 TD's in 16 games when he threw 75% of that number in only 7 starts as a first year starter? Were they any less of a running team when he started in 2006? Betts averaged around 25 carries per game for weeks 12-17. IMHO, they'll if anything be less protective of Campbell this year by letting him throw more passes per game. He earned their trust. He averaged 29 passes per start last year, so I bumped him to 33 passes per start for this year. They'll still run the ball a lot, but he'll definitely be getting his chances. Food for thought.

Good point. But they got into a ton of shootouts late last year, no? Id assume their defense improves.

I would assume the defense improves too, but it bears mentioning that Campbell did benefit from probably the best defensive play the team had in it last year. By the time he was starting in week 11, Archuleta was no longer playing, and the team had discovered that Vernon Fox, a street FA, actually played a competent SS. Here were the scores from their last seven games:

Game-by-game results+--------+-------------------------------+----------+---------+| Week | Opponent | Result | Score |+--------+-------------------------------+----------+---------+| 11 | at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | L | 17-20 || 12 | Carolina Panthers | W | 17-13 || 13 | Atlanta Falcons | L | 14-24 || 14 | Philadelphia Eagles | L | 19-21 || 15 | at New Orleans Saints | W | 16-10 || 16 | at St. Louis Rams | L | 31-37 || 17 | New York Giants | L | 28-34 |+--------+-------------------------------+----------+---------+Only those last two games really qualify as "shootouts", and yet Campbell's overall stat line didn't dramatically change for those games. I'm not expecting this defense to radically improve. They'll go from second-to-last to around middle of the pack (ranking 11-20 or so). There will still be ample opportunity for Campbell to throw the ball.

 

[Cookiemonster]

For his last two years in college, I watched him a lot and Redman's analysis is right on. That is exactly the kind of game he had at Auburn. He's got a little better-than-average arm strength for the NFL and good accuracy to boot. Above-average mobility combined with a top-notch head on his shoulders make him a terriffic QB in this league going forward.

Remember that he did have to learn a new offense every year in college and still managed to make himself a 1st round draft pick, despite having both Ronnie Brown AND Caddy in his backfield and having WRs that were late-round fliers and UFAs that have gotten zero playing time in the NFL. Now, if he'd had a 1st or 2nd round draft pick at WR (similar to S.Moss now) as well as two good RBs (now Portis and Betts) I would have expected him to be even more highly regarded. If he had multiple years in the same offensive system, he could have been a top pick and would be as highly touted as E.Manning, Rivers and Roethlisberger. River's first year as a full-time starter was last year, right?

Last fact, is that his Defense isn't top-notch. Yes, he was involved in some shootouts last year. Do you think their defense improved all that much? He should be asked to air it out on occasion this year and I fully support Redman's projections, though I would go w/ a better TD/INT ratio and maybe a tad lower on total #s. I feel very good w/ my QB situation in my sig.

 

[fatness]

In 2005, Brunell had 3050-23-10. What changed so dramatically for the Skins offense that some people have Campbell with almost 700 more yards?

Brunell threw a lot of passes out of bounds or into the turf, because he was afraid to throw over the middle. Campbell is not.

 

[scoobygang]

Campbell's first starting experience closely mirrors Patrick Ramsey's first experience. We were all very optimistic about his development, to the point that I think a lot of us forgot that he'd have typical growing pains. Now, Gibbs isn't Spurrier, but I still think the expectations around DC are uniformly too high for a young QB.

In division teams have had an entire offseason to look at what Campbell does well and what he doesn't. When this happens, even very talented and successful young QBs often come back to earth to a bit.

My guess is something like 3100 19 16 through the air (with a 57% or so completion percentage). Somewhere around 200 and 2 on the ground. A servicable spot starter in a QB rotation akin to Pennington last year.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I am admittedly bias but my projections aren't:

3480 yards 23 td's and 17 ints

225 yards rushing and 1 td

 

[redman]

Campbell's first starting experience closely mirrors Patrick Ramsey's first experience. We were all very optimistic about his development, to the point that I think a lot of us forgot that he'd have typical growing pains. Now, Gibbs isn't Spurrier, but I still think the expectations around DC are uniformly too high for a young QB.In division teams have had an entire offseason to look at what Campbell does well and what he doesn't. When this happens, even very talented and successful young QBs often come back to earth to a bit. My guess is something like 3100 19 16 through the air (with a 57% or so completion percentage). Somewhere around 200 and 2 on the ground. A servicable spot starter in a QB rotation akin to Pennington last year.

As I said I'm high on him, but yours is not an unreasonable position to take on his year #2 at all.

 

[jurb26]

Campbell's first starting experience closely mirrors Patrick Ramsey's first experience. We were all very optimistic about his development, to the point that I think a lot of us forgot that he'd have typical growing pains. Now, Gibbs isn't Spurrier, but I still think the expectations around DC are uniformly too high for a young QB.In division teams have had an entire offseason to look at what Campbell does well and what he doesn't. When this happens, even very talented and successful young QBs often come back to earth to a bit. My guess is something like 3100 19 16 through the air (with a 57% or so completion percentage). Somewhere around 200 and 2 on the ground. A servicable spot starter in a QB rotation akin to Pennington last year.

There are a couple of major differences between Ramsey and Campbell. 1. Ramsey was thrown into starting time as a rookie. Campbell did nothing but practice, hold a clipboard and learn.2. Gibbs is not Spurrier. I know that is a bit cliche but this is night and day. Spurrier probably did one of the worst jobs I can ever remember at handling a young QB. Spurrier absolutely ruined that guys career IMO. He threw him into the wolves den with no preparation and didn't even have the decency to give him pass protection. Gibbs has coddled Campbell thus far. Brought him along slowly and kept low expectation for him. He has built a solid Oline in front of him, established one of the better running games in the NFL with 2 solid RBs to go along with it and the best OC in the business. As I said, this is night and day different.

 

[redman]

Campbell's first starting experience closely mirrors Patrick Ramsey's first experience. We were all very optimistic about his development, to the point that I think a lot of us forgot that he'd have typical growing pains. Now, Gibbs isn't Spurrier, but I still think the expectations around DC are uniformly too high for a young QB.In division teams have had an entire offseason to look at what Campbell does well and what he doesn't. When this happens, even very talented and successful young QBs often come back to earth to a bit. My guess is something like 3100 19 16 through the air (with a 57% or so completion percentage). Somewhere around 200 and 2 on the ground. A servicable spot starter in a QB rotation akin to Pennington last year.

There are a couple of major differences between Ramsey and Campbell. 1. Ramsey was thrown into starting time as a rookie. Campbell did nothing but practice, hold a clipboard and learn.2. Gibbs is not Spurrier. I know that is a bit cliche but this is night and day. Spurrier probably did one of the worst jobs I can ever remember at handling a young QB. Spurrier absolutely ruined that guys career IMO. He threw him into the wolves den with no preparation and didn't even have the decency to give him pass protection. Gibbs has coddled Campbell thus far. Brought him along slowly and kept low expectation for him. He has built a solid Oline in front of him, established one of the better running games in the NFL with 2 solid RBs to go along with it and the best OC in the business. As I said, this is night and day different.

You can probably add a third category which is that Campbell just looks like he's more cut out for the pro game's speed and complexity than Ramsey. Campbell looks comfortable in the pocket, in sharp contrast to Ramsey's happy feet and sometimes frantic appearance. Whether that's inherent to the two of them, or is the product of Campbell being properly protected by good coaching and a good running game at Auburn/Washington versus Ramsey's trials by fire with Tulane/Spurrier is unclear, but it's another argument in Campbell's favor.BTW, Campbell throws both a better deep ball and also better dump offs than Ramsey, who always seemed to lack the touch on those throws. Ramsey excelled at the intermediate range passes down the middle of the field, but otherwise was quite innaccurate.

 

[Jason Wood]

Chase posted an interesting analysis in a Vince Young thread recently that showed most sophomore QBs actually regressed from their rookie seasons [this was of QBs that got starting time as rooks]. I can understand that; I also wonder why the love for Al Saunders when I've heard reports that he and Joe Gibbs weren't on the same page much of the time.

The numbers I'm seeing are certainly POSSIBLE, but let's remember that not every QB can be a top 10 fantasy contributor. Based purely on talent and expectation, I honestly can't see how I slot Jason Campbell in anything other than the bottom third of the league.

 

[Yamato]

Chase posted an interesting analysis in a Vince Young thread recently that showed most sophomore QBs actually regressed from their rookie seasons [this was of QBs that got starting time as rooks]. I can understand that; I also wonder why the love for Al Saunders when I've heard reports that he and Joe Gibbs weren't on the same page much of the time. The numbers I'm seeing are certainly POSSIBLE, but let's remember that not every QB can be a top 10 fantasy contributor. Based purely on talent and expectation, I honestly can't see how I slot Jason Campbell in anything other than the bottom third of the league.

Im with Scooby. Fantasy wise Campbell should fall into the 2nd tier (13-24) and should produce decent #'s as a spot starter. 3100 Yards Passing225 Yards Rushing18 Passing TD2 Rushing TD14 Interceptions

 

[fatness]

. Based purely on talent and expectation, I honestly can't see how I slot Jason Campbell in anything other than the bottom third of the league.

Spoken like a true Eagles fan. :( Sanders and Gibbs were not on the same page the first part of last year. Then Gibbs injected his views into the offense, those views basically being "run more". That's a large part of why Betts was so successful the latter part of the year. At the same time, while Betts was running a good bit, Campbell did take more shots at medium- and long-range passes than Brunell had previously. With Portis back this year and Betts healthy and re-signed, you'll likely see more of the same offense next year. Gibbs wants to run, and wants to use the run to open up the deeper passing game. For getting no first-team reps prior to his first start, Campbell looked quite poised last year and didn't turn the ball over a lot. If he isn't getting sacked mercilessly this year I'd expect more of the same. I'd put him in the QB10 - QB20 range this year.

 

[redman]

. Based purely on talent and expectation, I honestly can't see how I slot Jason Campbell in anything other than the bottom third of the league.

Spoken like a true Eagles fan. Sanders and Gibbs were not on the same page the first part of last year. Then Gibbs injected his views into the offense, those views basically being "run more". That's a large part of why Betts was so successful the latter part of the year. At the same time, while Betts was running a good bit, Campbell did take more shots at medium- and long-range passes than Brunell had previously. With Portis back this year and Betts healthy and re-signed, you'll likely see more of the same offense next year. Gibbs wants to run, and wants to use the run to open up the deeper passing game. For getting no first-team reps prior to his first start, Campbell looked quite poised last year and didn't turn the ball over a lot. If he isn't getting sacked mercilessly this year I'd expect more of the same. I'd put him in the QB10 - QB20 range this year.

In addition, every second-year starter under Gibbs dating back to Dan Fouts has either put up numbers as good or better than his prior season:Fouts (79-80)Theismann (81-82)Schroeder (85-86)Rypien (88-89)Gibbs is obsessive with his QB's about being fundamentally sound. Don't do things to hurt the team. Throw incompletions not interceptions. Don't hold onto the ball too long. These things tend to build a solid foundation for growth. As for Saunders, he made Trent Green and Kurt Warner into stars. He wasn't on the outs with Gibbs as much as Gibbs helped him to realize that the personality of that team, and particularly of the o-line, is a run-first team, and establishing the run needed to be done before the much heralded passing schemes could be used successfully. I recognize that I'm on the high end of the projections with him, but like I said I'm very impressed with his mastery of this offense and poise on the field. He just looked good last year.

 

[Jason Wood]

. Based purely on talent and expectation, I honestly can't see how I slot Jason Campbell in anything other than the bottom third of the league.

Spoken like a true Eagles fan. Sanders and Gibbs were not on the same page the first part of last year. Then Gibbs injected his views into the offense, those views basically being "run more". That's a large part of why Betts was so successful the latter part of the year. At the same time, while Betts was running a good bit, Campbell did take more shots at medium- and long-range passes than Brunell had previously. With Portis back this year and Betts healthy and re-signed, you'll likely see more of the same offense next year. Gibbs wants to run, and wants to use the run to open up the deeper passing game. For getting no first-team reps prior to his first start, Campbell looked quite poised last year and didn't turn the ball over a lot. If he isn't getting sacked mercilessly this year I'd expect more of the same. I'd put him in the QB10 - QB20 range this year.

QBs I would rank ahead of Jason Campbell [in terms of real NFL prowess, not fantasy ranking]eyton ManningTom BradyDrew BreesMarc BulgerDonovan McNabbCarson PalmerBrady QuinnBen RoethlisbergerTony RomoEli ManningPhilip RiversJay CutlerTrent GreenMatt SchaubMichael VickVince YoungBrady QuinnByron LeftwichChad PenningtonDaunte Culpepper [if healthy]Steve McNairJon KitnaJake DelhommeMatt LeinartMatt HasselbeckAlex Smith

 

[ChrisCooleyFan]

. Based purely on talent and expectation, I honestly can't see how I slot Jason Campbell in anything other than the bottom third of the league.

Spoken like a true Eagles fan. Sanders and Gibbs were not on the same page the first part of last year. Then Gibbs injected his views into the offense, those views basically being "run more". That's a large part of why Betts was so successful the latter part of the year. At the same time, while Betts was running a good bit, Campbell did take more shots at medium- and long-range passes than Brunell had previously. With Portis back this year and Betts healthy and re-signed, you'll likely see more of the same offense next year. Gibbs wants to run, and wants to use the run to open up the deeper passing game.

For getting no first-team reps prior to his first start, Campbell looked quite poised last year and didn't turn the ball over a lot. If he isn't getting sacked mercilessly this year I'd expect more of the same. I'd put him in the QB10 - QB20 range this year.

QBs I would rank ahead of Jason Campbell [in terms of real NFL prowess, not fantasy ranking]eyton Manning

Tom Brady

Drew Brees

Marc Bulger

Donovan McNabb

Carson Palmer

Brady Quinn

Ben Roethlisberger

Tony Romo

Eli Manning

Philip Rivers

Jay Cutler

Trent Green

Matt Schaub

Michael Vick

Vince Young

Brady Quinn

Byron Leftwich

Chad Pennington

Daunte Culpepper [if healthy]

Steve McNair

Jon Kitna

Jake Delhomme

Matt Leinart

Matt Hasselbeck

Alex Smith

 

[jurb26]

. Based purely on talent and expectation, I honestly can't see how I slot Jason Campbell in anything other than the bottom third of the league.

Spoken like a true Eagles fan. Sanders and Gibbs were not on the same page the first part of last year. Then Gibbs injected his views into the offense, those views basically being "run more". That's a large part of why Betts was so successful the latter part of the year. At the same time, while Betts was running a good bit, Campbell did take more shots at medium- and long-range passes than Brunell had previously. With Portis back this year and Betts healthy and re-signed, you'll likely see more of the same offense next year. Gibbs wants to run, and wants to use the run to open up the deeper passing game. For getting no first-team reps prior to his first start, Campbell looked quite poised last year and didn't turn the ball over a lot. If he isn't getting sacked mercilessly this year I'd expect more of the same. I'd put him in the QB10 - QB20 range this year.

QBs I would rank ahead of Jason Campbell [in terms of real NFL prowess, not fantasy ranking]eyton ManningTom BradyDrew BreesMarc BulgerDonovan McNabbCarson PalmerBrady QuinnBen RoethlisbergerTony RomoEli ManningPhilip RiversJay CutlerTrent GreenMatt SchaubMichael VickVince YoungBrady QuinnByron LeftwichChad PenningtonDaunte Culpepper [if healthy]Steve McNairJon KitnaJake DelhommeMatt LeinartMatt HasselbeckAlex Smith

Staff shouldn't wear homer glasses like this.

 

[Thom Yorke]

. Based purely on talent and expectation, I honestly can't see how I slot Jason Campbell in anything other than the bottom third of the league.

Spoken like a true Eagles fan. Sanders and Gibbs were not on the same page the first part of last year. Then Gibbs injected his views into the offense, those views basically being "run more". That's a large part of why Betts was so successful the latter part of the year. At the same time, while Betts was running a good bit, Campbell did take more shots at medium- and long-range passes than Brunell had previously. With Portis back this year and Betts healthy and re-signed, you'll likely see more of the same offense next year. Gibbs wants to run, and wants to use the run to open up the deeper passing game.

For getting no first-team reps prior to his first start, Campbell looked quite poised last year and didn't turn the ball over a lot. If he isn't getting sacked mercilessly this year I'd expect more of the same. I'd put him in the QB10 - QB20 range this year.

QBs I would rank ahead of Jason Campbell [in terms of real NFL prowess, not fantasy ranking]eyton Manning

Tom Brady

Drew Brees

Marc Bulger

Donovan McNabb

Carson Palmer

Brady Quinn

Ben Roethlisberger

Tony Romo

Eli Manning

Philip Rivers

Jay Cutler

Trent Green

Matt Schaub

Michael Vick

Vince Young

Brady Quinn

Byron Leftwich

Chad Pennington

Daunte Culpepper [if healthy]

Steve McNair

Jon Kitna

Jake Delhomme

Matt Leinart

Matt Hasselbeck

Alex Smith

Quinn is certainly questionable, but you can make an argument for Schaub over Campbell.

 

[ATW22]

. Based purely on talent and expectation, I honestly can't see how I slot Jason Campbell in anything other than the bottom third of the league.

Spoken like a true Eagles fan. Sanders and Gibbs were not on the same page the first part of last year. Then Gibbs injected his views into the offense, those views basically being "run more". That's a large part of why Betts was so successful the latter part of the year. At the same time, while Betts was running a good bit, Campbell did take more shots at medium- and long-range passes than Brunell had previously. With Portis back this year and Betts healthy and re-signed, you'll likely see more of the same offense next year. Gibbs wants to run, and wants to use the run to open up the deeper passing game.

For getting no first-team reps prior to his first start, Campbell looked quite poised last year and didn't turn the ball over a lot. If he isn't getting sacked mercilessly this year I'd expect more of the same. I'd put him in the QB10 - QB20 range this year.

QBs I would rank ahead of Jason Campbell [in terms of real NFL prowess, not fantasy ranking]eyton Manning

Tom Brady

Drew Brees

Marc Bulger

Donovan McNabb

Carson Palmer

Brady Quinn-NOPE

Ben Roethlisberger

Tony RomoNOPE

Eli ManningREMAINS TO BE SEEN

Philip Rivers

Jay Cutler

Trent GreenNOT ANYMORE

Matt SchaubNOPE

Michael Vick

Vince Young

Brady QuinnREPEAT

Byron LeftwichNOPE

Chad PenningtonNOPE

Daunte Culpepper [if healthy]

Steve McNairCLOSE BUT NOT FOR MUCH LONGER

Jon KitnaNOPE

Jake DelhommeNOPE

Matt Leinart

Matt Hasselbeck

Alex SmithWE'LL SEE

 

[Jason Wood]

. Based purely on talent and expectation, I honestly can't see how I slot Jason Campbell in anything other than the bottom third of the league.

Spoken like a true Eagles fan. Sanders and Gibbs were not on the same page the first part of last year. Then Gibbs injected his views into the offense, those views basically being "run more". That's a large part of why Betts was so successful the latter part of the year. At the same time, while Betts was running a good bit, Campbell did take more shots at medium- and long-range passes than Brunell had previously. With Portis back this year and Betts healthy and re-signed, you'll likely see more of the same offense next year. Gibbs wants to run, and wants to use the run to open up the deeper passing game. For getting no first-team reps prior to his first start, Campbell looked quite poised last year and didn't turn the ball over a lot. If he isn't getting sacked mercilessly this year I'd expect more of the same. I'd put him in the QB10 - QB20 range this year.

QBs I would rank ahead of Jason Campbell [in terms of real NFL prowess, not fantasy ranking]eyton ManningTom BradyDrew BreesMarc BulgerDonovan McNabbCarson PalmerBrady QuinnBen RoethlisbergerTony RomoEli ManningPhilip RiversJay CutlerTrent GreenMatt SchaubMichael VickVince YoungBrady QuinnByron LeftwichChad PenningtonDaunte Culpepper [if healthy]Steve McNairJon KitnaJake DelhommeMatt LeinartMatt HasselbeckAlex Smith

Staff shouldn't wear homer glasses like this.

Homer glasses? I assure you I loathe Eli Manning and Tony Romo just as much as Jason Campbell, yet I included them.

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

. Based purely on talent and expectation, I honestly can't see how I slot Jason Campbell in anything other than the bottom third of the league.

Spoken like a true Eagles fan. Sanders and Gibbs were not on the same page the first part of last year. Then Gibbs injected his views into the offense, those views basically being "run more". That's a large part of why Betts was so successful the latter part of the year. At the same time, while Betts was running a good bit, Campbell did take more shots at medium- and long-range passes than Brunell had previously. With Portis back this year and Betts healthy and re-signed, you'll likely see more of the same offense next year. Gibbs wants to run, and wants to use the run to open up the deeper passing game. For getting no first-team reps prior to his first start, Campbell looked quite poised last year and didn't turn the ball over a lot. If he isn't getting sacked mercilessly this year I'd expect more of the same. I'd put him in the QB10 - QB20 range this year.

QBs I would rank ahead of Jason Campbell [in terms of real NFL prowess, not fantasy ranking]eyton ManningTom BradyDrew BreesMarc BulgerDonovan McNabbCarson PalmerBrady QuinnBen RoethlisbergerTony RomoEli ManningPhilip RiversJay CutlerTrent GreenMatt SchaubMichael VickVince YoungBrady QuinnByron LeftwichChad PenningtonDaunte Culpepper [if healthy]Steve McNairJon KitnaJake DelhommeMatt LeinartMatt HasselbeckAlex Smith

No Kevin Kolb? Seriously, this list gave me a good chuckle.

 

[Jason Wood]

. Based purely on talent and expectation, I honestly can't see how I slot Jason Campbell in anything other than the bottom third of the league.

Spoken like a true Eagles fan. Sanders and Gibbs were not on the same page the first part of last year. Then Gibbs injected his views into the offense, those views basically being "run more". That's a large part of why Betts was so successful the latter part of the year. At the same time, while Betts was running a good bit, Campbell did take more shots at medium- and long-range passes than Brunell had previously. With Portis back this year and Betts healthy and re-signed, you'll likely see more of the same offense next year. Gibbs wants to run, and wants to use the run to open up the deeper passing game. For getting no first-team reps prior to his first start, Campbell looked quite poised last year and didn't turn the ball over a lot. If he isn't getting sacked mercilessly this year I'd expect more of the same. I'd put him in the QB10 - QB20 range this year.

QBs I would rank ahead of Jason Campbell [in terms of real NFL prowess, not fantasy ranking]eyton ManningTom BradyDrew BreesMarc BulgerDonovan McNabbCarson PalmerBrady QuinnBen RoethlisbergerTony RomoEli ManningPhilip RiversJay CutlerTrent GreenMatt SchaubMichael VickVince YoungBrady QuinnByron LeftwichChad PenningtonDaunte Culpepper [if healthy]Steve McNairJon KitnaJake DelhommeMatt LeinartMatt HasselbeckAlex Smith

No Kevin Kolb? Seriously, this list gave me a good chuckle.

This is the time of year to have debate and convince one another where we erred. Of those I listed, which do you assert are NOT as good as Jason Campbell, or to ask another way, would you not rather have quarterbacking your 2007 NFL team?

 

[jurb26]

This is the time of year to have debate and convince one another where we erred. Of those I listed, which do you assert are NOT as good as Jason Campbell, or to ask another way, would you not rather have quarterbacking your 2007 NFL team?

When the list is this extreme, I think you should expain yourself before everyone else does.Seriously, some of the guys on that list are just mind boggeling:Brady QuinnTony RomoEli ManningJay CutlerTrent GreenMatt SchaubBrady QuinnByron LeftwichDaunte Culpepper [if healthy]Jon KitnaJake DelhommeMatt LeinartAlex SmithI'm not saying that I disagree with all of these named players. Only that I can see STRONG cases made against them vs. Campbell. It seems to me that you just took a whole slew of guys that are near Campbell in terms of NFL prowess and lumped every one of them together trying to embellish the point. Some of them have no business what so ever being in there if you ask me and really tarnish what I consider to be objective thought on the topic.

 

[redman]

. Based purely on talent and expectation, I honestly can't see how I slot Jason Campbell in anything other than the bottom third of the league.

Spoken like a true Eagles fan. Sanders and Gibbs were not on the same page the first part of last year. Then Gibbs injected his views into the offense, those views basically being "run more". That's a large part of why Betts was so successful the latter part of the year. At the same time, while Betts was running a good bit, Campbell did take more shots at medium- and long-range passes than Brunell had previously. With Portis back this year and Betts healthy and re-signed, you'll likely see more of the same offense next year. Gibbs wants to run, and wants to use the run to open up the deeper passing game.

For getting no first-team reps prior to his first start, Campbell looked quite poised last year and didn't turn the ball over a lot. If he isn't getting sacked mercilessly this year I'd expect more of the same. I'd put him in the QB10 - QB20 range this year.

QBs I would rank ahead of Jason Campbell [in terms of real NFL prowess, not fantasy ranking]eyton Manning

Tom Brady

Drew Brees

Marc Bulger

Donovan McNabb

Carson Palmer

Brady Quinn

Ben Roethlisberger

Tony Romo

Eli Manning

Philip Rivers

Jay Cutler

Trent Green

Matt Schaub

Michael Vick

Vince Young

Brady Quinn

Byron Leftwich

Chad Pennington

Daunte Culpepper [if healthy]

Steve McNair

Jon Kitna

Jake Delhomme

Matt Leinart

Matt Hasselbeck

Alex Smith

Quinn is certainly questionable, but you can make an argument for Schaub over Campbell.

First of all, this is a fantasy thread so why are we suddenly switching to "real NFL prowess"?Schaub? You mean the guy who got around 30% of his career yardage and 50% of his career TD's in one start? That Matt Schaub?

I actually like Schaub as a prospect but Campbell has shown more than he has even though it's early.

The inclusion of Brady Quinn in there is a joke.

I would also rank Campbell ahead of Smith, Kitna, Leftwich, and maybe (at this point of their careers) Delhomme and Green, though if those guys revert to form then no. I'd rank Campbell roughly equal to Leinart and Cutler, and I'd actually rate his pure quarterbacking skills ahead of Vick even at this early date, though Vick obviously brings other skills to the table. I think we may also rank him ahead of guys like Pennington and Eli after this year if he continues to develop like I believe he will.

 

[Jason Wood]

This is the time of year to have debate and convince one another where we erred. Of those I listed, which do you assert are NOT as good as Jason Campbell, or to ask another way, would you not rather have quarterbacking your 2007 NFL team?

When the list is this extreme, I think you should expain yourself before everyone else does.Seriously, some of the guys on that list are just mind boggeling:Brady Quinn -- Quinn probably fails my own definition. I would absolutely rather have him to build a franchise around, but admittedly I would rather have Campbell for the 2007 seasonTony Romo -- Pro Bowler, 4 years in the league, baseline output of 3,500 yards and 22 TDs, why would I want Campbell over Romo?Eli Manning -- I'm a big time Manning critic, but he's tough as nails and far more accomplished than Campbell at this pointJay Cutler -- Similar to Campbell in many ways; but in a better system with better supporting talent. I expect his level of improvement this year to trump Campbell's; but admittedly this one is up for debateTrent Green -- For the 2007 season assuming he lands in Miami? Absolutely. In fact, I bet dollars to donuts Al Saunders would take Green in Washington this year over Campbell if he had the chanceMatt Schaub -- I've been a big Schaub supporter from day one. Much like Quinn, he may fail the "2007" test I put forth, but if it comes down to a coin toss, tie goes to SchaubByron Leftwich -- Probably the last guy to make my initial list; I'm not going to argue if you put Campbell over him, but I think based on experience alone, Leftwich gets the "slight" nodDaunte Culpepper [if healthy] -- When healthy, he's eliteJon Kitna -- This deserves clarification. I wouldn't rather build a franchise around Kitna over Campbell. But I would expect Kitna to be the MUCH more productive QB in 2007. Of course, if we put Kitna in DC and Campbell in Detroit, I might feel otherwiseJake Delhomme -- He regressed last year, but let's not pretend that his collective body of work isn't quite good, including solid playoff performances. Why on Earth would I rather have Campbell?Matt Leinart -- See Jay Cutler aboveAlex Smith -- See Jay Cutler & Matt Leinart aboveI'm not saying that I disagree with all of these named players. Only that I can see STRONG cases made against them vs. Campbell. It seems to me that you just took a whole slew of guys that are near Campbell in terms of NFL prowess and lumped every one of them together trying to embellish the point. Some of them have no business what so ever being in there if you ask me and really tarnish what I consider to be objective thought on the topic.

My thoughts....

 

[Arsenal of Doom]

This is the time of year to have debate and convince one another where we erred. Of those I listed, which do you assert are NOT as good as Jason Campbell, or to ask another way, would you not rather have quarterbacking your 2007 NFL team?

When the list is this extreme, I think you should expain yourself before everyone else does.Seriously, some of the guys on that list are just mind boggeling:Brady QuinnTony RomoEli ManningJay CutlerTrent GreenMatt SchaubBrady QuinnByron LeftwichDaunte Culpepper [if healthy]Jon KitnaJake DelhommeMatt LeinartAlex SmithI'm not saying that I disagree with all of these named players. Only that I can see STRONG cases made against them vs. Campbell. It seems to me that you just took a whole slew of guys that are near Campbell in terms of NFL prowess and lumped every one of them together trying to embellish the point. Some of them have no business what so ever being in there if you ask me and really tarnish what I consider to be objective thought on the topic.

Rather than making my own list, I think jurb26 called out most of the debatable ones. The one that kills me the most is Quinn; how can you be rating a QB ahead of Campbell on NFL prowess who hasn't thrown a pass in the NFL?ETA: I was typing while you were posting and I see you have backed off of Quinn a little.

 

[Jason Wood]

. Based purely on talent and expectation, I honestly can't see how I slot Jason Campbell in anything other than the bottom third of the league.

Spoken like a true Eagles fan. Sanders and Gibbs were not on the same page the first part of last year. Then Gibbs injected his views into the offense, those views basically being "run more". That's a large part of why Betts was so successful the latter part of the year. At the same time, while Betts was running a good bit, Campbell did take more shots at medium- and long-range passes than Brunell had previously. With Portis back this year and Betts healthy and re-signed, you'll likely see more of the same offense next year. Gibbs wants to run, and wants to use the run to open up the deeper passing game.

For getting no first-team reps prior to his first start, Campbell looked quite poised last year and didn't turn the ball over a lot. If he isn't getting sacked mercilessly this year I'd expect more of the same. I'd put him in the QB10 - QB20 range this year.

QBs I would rank ahead of Jason Campbell [in terms of real NFL prowess, not fantasy ranking]eyton Manning

Tom Brady

Drew Brees

Marc Bulger

Donovan McNabb

Carson Palmer

Brady Quinn

Ben Roethlisberger

Tony Romo

Eli Manning

Philip Rivers

Jay Cutler

Trent Green

Matt Schaub

Michael Vick

Vince Young

Brady Quinn

Byron Leftwich

Chad Pennington

Daunte Culpepper [if healthy]

Steve McNair

Jon Kitna

Jake Delhomme

Matt Leinart

Matt Hasselbeck

Alex Smith

Quinn is certainly questionable, but you can make an argument for Schaub over Campbell.

First of all, this is a fantasy thread so why are we suddenly switching to "real NFL prowess"?Schaub? You mean the guy who got around 30% of his career yardage and 50% of his career TD's in one start? That Matt Schaub?

I actually like Schaub as a prospect but Campbell has shown more than he has even though it's early.

The inclusion of Brady Quinn in there is a joke.

I would also rank Campbell ahead of Smith, Kitna, Leftwich, and maybe (at this point of their careers) Delhomme and Green, though if those guys revert to form then no. I'd rank Campbell roughly equal to Leinart and Cutler, and I'd actually rate his pure quarterbacking skills ahead of Vick even at this early date, though Vick obviously brings other skills to the table. I think we may also rank him ahead of guys like Pennington and Eli after this year if he continues to develop like I believe he will.

So by your tally you put him somewhere around QB18-20...we're not far off, not at all.

 

[jurb26]

This is the time of year to have debate and convince one another where we erred. Of those I listed, which do you assert are NOT as good as Jason Campbell, or to ask another way, would you not rather have quarterbacking your 2007 NFL team?

When the list is this extreme, I think you should expain yourself before everyone else does.Seriously, some of the guys on that list are just mind boggeling:Brady QuinnTony RomoEli ManningJay CutlerTrent GreenMatt SchaubBrady QuinnByron LeftwichDaunte Culpepper [if healthy]Jon KitnaJake DelhommeMatt LeinartAlex SmithI'm not saying that I disagree with all of these named players. Only that I can see STRONG cases made against them vs. Campbell. It seems to me that you just took a whole slew of guys that are near Campbell in terms of NFL prowess and lumped every one of them together trying to embellish the point. Some of them have no business what so ever being in there if you ask me and really tarnish what I consider to be objective thought on the topic.

Rather than making my own list, I think jurb26 called out most of the debatable ones. The one that kills me the most is Quinn; how can you be rating a QB ahead of Campbell on NFL prowess who hasn't thrown a pass in the NFL?

Or Cpep who is practically being run out of the league by a team who has atrocious QB play.

 

[jurb26]

Daunte Culpepper [if healthy] -- When healthy and with the most dangerous WR ever to play football allowing him to just throw blind deep balls, he's elite

Fixed.

 

[Jason Wood]

This is the time of year to have debate and convince one another where we erred. Of those I listed, which do you assert are NOT as good as Jason Campbell, or to ask another way, would you not rather have quarterbacking your 2007 NFL team?

When the list is this extreme, I think you should expain yourself before everyone else does.Seriously, some of the guys on that list are just mind boggeling:Brady QuinnTony RomoEli ManningJay CutlerTrent GreenMatt SchaubBrady QuinnByron LeftwichDaunte Culpepper [if healthy]Jon KitnaJake DelhommeMatt LeinartAlex SmithI'm not saying that I disagree with all of these named players. Only that I can see STRONG cases made against them vs. Campbell. It seems to me that you just took a whole slew of guys that are near Campbell in terms of NFL prowess and lumped every one of them together trying to embellish the point. Some of them have no business what so ever being in there if you ask me and really tarnish what I consider to be objective thought on the topic.

Rather than making my own list, I think jurb26 called out most of the debatable ones. The one that kills me the most is Quinn; how can you be rating a QB ahead of Campbell on NFL prowess who hasn't thrown a pass in the NFL?

Guilty as charged [as you see from my reply above]...Quinn shouldn't be on there as I defined this as 2007 expectations only. And obviously there are a few that are close calls; but there's a fine line between QB25 and QB20. Neither is a place I'd want my team to be.

 

[redman]

This is the time of year to have debate and convince one another where we erred. Of those I listed, which do you assert are NOT as good as Jason Campbell, or to ask another way, would you not rather have quarterbacking your 2007 NFL team?

When the list is this extreme, I think you should expain yourself before everyone else does.Seriously, some of the guys on that list are just mind boggeling:Brady QuinnTony RomoEli ManningJay CutlerTrent GreenMatt SchaubBrady QuinnByron LeftwichDaunte Culpepper [if healthy]Jon KitnaJake DelhommeMatt LeinartAlex SmithI'm not saying that I disagree with all of these named players. Only that I can see STRONG cases made against them vs. Campbell. It seems to me that you just took a whole slew of guys that are near Campbell in terms of NFL prowess and lumped every one of them together trying to embellish the point. Some of them have no business what so ever being in there if you ask me and really tarnish what I consider to be objective thought on the topic.

Rather than making my own list, I think jurb26 called out most of the debatable ones. The one that kills me the most is Quinn; how can you be rating a QB ahead of Campbell on NFL prowess who hasn't thrown a pass in the NFL?

Or Cpep who is practically being run out of the league by a team who has atrocious QB play.

I think Culpepper is one of the most overrated QB's in the league. Now that he's been without Randy, I've seen no sign of him being able to adjust his game, read defenses, or make the types of throws you need to make to sustain drives and win games. I think he's a big guy with a big arm who was fortunate enough to have paired up with one of the most explosive and talented deep ball WR's ever to play the game, and on astroturf no less. If you want to put a name to it. I'd compare him to Jay Schroeder.

 

[jurb26]

Guilty as charged [as you see from my reply above]...Quinn shouldn't be on there as I defined this as 2007 expectations only. And obviously there are a few that are close calls; but there's a fine line between QB25 and QB20. Neither is a place I'd want my team to be.

Wood, you are confusing me a bit here. I thought we were talking about real NFL QB play. Some of your reasoning seems to be fantasy based.

Jon Kitna -- This deserves clarification. I wouldn't rather build a franchise around Kitna over Campbell. But I would expect Kitna to be the MUCH more productive QB in 2007. Of course, if we put Kitna in DC and Campbell in Detroit, I might feel otherwiseJay Cutler -- Similar to Campbell in many ways; but in a better system with better supporting talent. I expect his level of improvement this year to trump Campbell's; but admittedly this one is up for debateMatt Leinart -- See Jay Cutler aboveAlex Smith -- See Jay Cutler & Matt Leinart above

Furthermore, you seem to contradict yourself in your comments as well:

Brady Quinn -- Quinn probably fails my own definition. I would absolutely rather have him to build a franchise around, but admittedly I would rather have Campbell for the 2007 seasonJon Kitna -- This deserves clarification. I wouldn't rather build a franchise around Kitna over Campbell. But I would expect Kitna to be the MUCH more productive QB in 2007. Of course, if we put Kitna in DC and Campbell in Detroit, I might feel otherwise

So Quinn is on here because he is better to build around than Campbell... Kitna is on here because he is better short term...

 

[Jason Wood]

Guilty as charged [as you see from my reply above]...Quinn shouldn't be on there as I defined this as 2007 expectations only. And obviously there are a few that are close calls; but there's a fine line between QB25 and QB20. Neither is a place I'd want my team to be.

Wood, you are confusing me a bit here. I thought we were talking about real NFL QB play. Some of your reasoning seems to be fantasy based.

Jon Kitna -- This deserves clarification. I wouldn't rather build a franchise around Kitna over Campbell. But I would expect Kitna to be the MUCH more productive QB in 2007. Of course, if we put Kitna in DC and Campbell in Detroit, I might feel otherwiseJay Cutler -- Similar to Campbell in many ways; but in a better system with better supporting talent. I expect his level of improvement this year to trump Campbell's; but admittedly this one is up for debateMatt Leinart -- See Jay Cutler aboveAlex Smith -- See Jay Cutler & Matt Leinart above

I am

 

[Thom Yorke]

. Based purely on talent and expectation, I honestly can't see how I slot Jason Campbell in anything other than the bottom third of the league.

Spoken like a true Eagles fan. Sanders and Gibbs were not on the same page the first part of last year. Then Gibbs injected his views into the offense, those views basically being "run more". That's a large part of why Betts was so successful the latter part of the year. At the same time, while Betts was running a good bit, Campbell did take more shots at medium- and long-range passes than Brunell had previously. With Portis back this year and Betts healthy and re-signed, you'll likely see more of the same offense next year. Gibbs wants to run, and wants to use the run to open up the deeper passing game.

For getting no first-team reps prior to his first start, Campbell looked quite poised last year and didn't turn the ball over a lot. If he isn't getting sacked mercilessly this year I'd expect more of the same. I'd put him in the QB10 - QB20 range this year.

QBs I would rank ahead of Jason Campbell [in terms of real NFL prowess, not fantasy ranking]eyton Manning

Tom Brady

Drew Brees

Marc Bulger

Donovan McNabb

Carson Palmer

Brady Quinn

Ben Roethlisberger

Tony Romo

Eli Manning

Philip Rivers

Jay Cutler

Trent Green

Matt Schaub

Michael Vick

Vince Young

Brady Quinn

Byron Leftwich

Chad Pennington

Daunte Culpepper [if healthy]

Steve McNair

Jon Kitna

Jake Delhomme

Matt Leinart

Matt Hasselbeck

Alex Smith

Quinn is certainly questionable, but you can make an argument for Schaub over Campbell.

First of all, this is a fantasy thread so why are we suddenly switching to "real NFL prowess"?Schaub? You mean the guy who got around 30% of his career yardage and 50% of his career TD's in one start? That Matt Schaub?

I actually like Schaub as a prospect but Campbell has shown more than he has even though it's early.

The inclusion of Brady Quinn in there is a joke.

I would also rank Campbell ahead of Smith, Kitna, Leftwich, and maybe (at this point of their careers) Delhomme and Green, though if those guys revert to form then no. I'd rank Campbell roughly equal to Leinart and Cutler, and I'd actually rate his pure quarterbacking skills ahead of Vick even at this early date, though Vick obviously brings other skills to the table. I think we may also rank him ahead of guys like Pennington and Eli after this year if he continues to develop like I believe he will.

I was confused as well -- thought we were talking fantasy.

 

[Jason Wood]

. Based purely on talent and expectation, I honestly can't see how I slot Jason Campbell in anything other than the bottom third of the league.

Spoken like a true Eagles fan. Sanders and Gibbs were not on the same page the first part of last year. Then Gibbs injected his views into the offense, those views basically being "run more". That's a large part of why Betts was so successful the latter part of the year. At the same time, while Betts was running a good bit, Campbell did take more shots at medium- and long-range passes than Brunell had previously. With Portis back this year and Betts healthy and re-signed, you'll likely see more of the same offense next year. Gibbs wants to run, and wants to use the run to open up the deeper passing game.

For getting no first-team reps prior to his first start, Campbell looked quite poised last year and didn't turn the ball over a lot. If he isn't getting sacked mercilessly this year I'd expect more of the same. I'd put him in the QB10 - QB20 range this year.

QBs I would rank ahead of Jason Campbell [in terms of real NFL prowess, not fantasy ranking]eyton Manning

Tom Brady

Drew Brees

Marc Bulger

Donovan McNabb

Carson Palmer

Brady Quinn

Ben Roethlisberger

Tony Romo

Eli Manning

Philip Rivers

Jay Cutler

Trent Green

Matt Schaub

Michael Vick

Vince Young

Brady Quinn

Byron Leftwich

Chad Pennington

Daunte Culpepper [if healthy]

Steve McNair

Jon Kitna

Jake Delhomme

Matt Leinart

Matt Hasselbeck

Alex Smith

Quinn is certainly questionable, but you can make an argument for Schaub over Campbell.

First of all, this is a fantasy thread so why are we suddenly switching to "real NFL prowess"?Schaub? You mean the guy who got around 30% of his career yardage and 50% of his career TD's in one start? That Matt Schaub?

I actually like Schaub as a prospect but Campbell has shown more than he has even though it's early.

The inclusion of Brady Quinn in there is a joke.

I would also rank Campbell ahead of Smith, Kitna, Leftwich, and maybe (at this point of their careers) Delhomme and Green, though if those guys revert to form then no. I'd rank Campbell roughly equal to Leinart and Cutler, and I'd actually rate his pure quarterbacking skills ahead of Vick even at this early date, though Vick obviously brings other skills to the table. I think we may also rank him ahead of guys like Pennington and Eli after this year if he continues to develop like I believe he will.

I was confused as well -- thought we were talking fantasy.

We are, or, we should be Thom. I took us off track because I was making the point that the numbers I was seeing for Campbell are highly unlikely unless you presume he's going to be a top 10-12 fantasy QB this year. That makes little sense to me, particularly when [and this is where we got off track], he isn't among the top half [or two thirds in my view] of NFL QBs.

But back on topic...I predict:

485 attempts

271 completions

3,153 yards passing

20 TDs

15 INTs

45 rushes

140 yards rushing

0 rushing TDs

 

[fatness]

Off the top of my head (and I'm lying through my teeth since I have a dynasty draft coming up soon, but bear with me) these are the QB's I'd likely take before Jason Campbell in a dynasty draft. This isn't my order, just copy/pasted from elswhere.

P. Manning

Palmer

Brees

Brady

Vick

Young

Leinart

McNabb

Bulger

Cutler

Roethlisberger

Rivers

Hasselbeck

These are the QB's I'd be looking at about the same time I'd be looking at Campbell.

E. Manning

Russell

Romo

Losman

Quinn

Leftwich

Delhomme

I'm no expert and I'm a Redskin fan, but I sure as hell don't view the Skins through rose-colored glasses. I just think Campbell's going to be a pretty good QB based on what I've seen him do on a bad team so far.

 

[Jason Wood]

Off the top of my head (and I'm lying through my teeth since I have a dynasty draft coming up soon, but bear with me) these are the QB's I'd likely take before Jason Campbell in a dynasty draft. This isn't my order, just copy/pasted from elswhere.P. ManningPalmerBreesBradyVickYoungLeinartMcNabbBulgerCutlerRoethlisbergerRiversHasselbeckThese are the QB's I'd be looking at about the same time I'd be looking at Campbell.E. ManningRussellRomoLosmanQuinnLeftwichDelhommeI'm no expert and I'm a Redskin fan, but I sure as hell don't view the Skins through rose-colored glasses. I just think Campbell's going to be a pretty good QB based on what I've seen him do on a bad team so far.

You're not the only person I've seen talk about what Campbell has done so far, and this baffles me. What has he done?53% completion percentage6.3 yards per attemptThe only thing that even hints at above average performance is the 10 TDs in 7 games. But why would one be comfortable extrapolating that data point forward into 2007 without also extrapolating the very subpar completion percentage and yards per attempt?Has Campbell's receiving corp improved that I'm unaware?Has his offensive line gotten better?Is there any reason to think the team won't run the ball even more this year with a healthy Portis and now proven Ladell Betts in the fold?

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Off the top of my head (and I'm lying through my teeth since I have a dynasty draft coming up soon, but bear with me) these are the QB's I'd likely take before Jason Campbell in a dynasty draft. This isn't my order, just copy/pasted from elswhere.P. ManningPalmerBreesBradyVickYoungLeinartMcNabbBulgerCutlerRoethlisbergerRiversHasselbeckThese are the QB's I'd be looking at about the same time I'd be looking at Campbell.E. ManningRussellRomoLosmanQuinnLeftwichDelhommeI'm no expert and I'm a Redskin fan, but I sure as hell don't view the Skins through rose-colored glasses. I just think Campbell's going to be a pretty good QB based on what I've seen him do on a bad team so far.

You're not the only person I've seen talk about what Campbell has done so far, and this baffles me. What has he done?53% completion percentage6.3 yards per attemptThe only thing that even hints at above average performance is the 10 TDs in 7 games. But why would one be comfortable extrapolating that data point forward into 2007 without also extrapolating the very subpar completion percentage and yards per attempt?Has Campbell's receiving corp improved that I'm unaware?Has his offensive line gotten better?Is there any reason to think the team won't run the ball even more this year with a healthy Portis and now proven Ladell Betts in the fold?

Yes, Moss should be healthy.No.Not really.But the HUGE difference is that he will go into the season as the starter and "gasp" practice with the starters during the off-season and throughout the season. Seems fairly obvious that he would improve in that situation over getting thrown into the fire after the Skins have nothing to play for last year.

 

[redman]

Off the top of my head (and I'm lying through my teeth since I have a dynasty draft coming up soon, but bear with me) these are the QB's I'd likely take before Jason Campbell in a dynasty draft. This isn't my order, just copy/pasted from elswhere.P. ManningPalmerBreesBradyVickYoungLeinartMcNabbBulgerCutlerRoethlisbergerRiversHasselbeckThese are the QB's I'd be looking at about the same time I'd be looking at Campbell.E. ManningRussellRomoLosmanQuinnLeftwichDelhommeI'm no expert and I'm a Redskin fan, but I sure as hell don't view the Skins through rose-colored glasses. I just think Campbell's going to be a pretty good QB based on what I've seen him do on a bad team so far.

You're not the only person I've seen talk about what Campbell has done so far, and this baffles me. What has he done?53% completion percentage6.3 yards per attemptThe only thing that even hints at above average performance is the 10 TDs in 7 games. But why would one be comfortable extrapolating that data point forward into 2007 without also extrapolating the very subpar completion percentage and yards per attempt?Has Campbell's receiving corp improved that I'm unaware?Has his offensive line gotten better?Is there any reason to think the team won't run the ball even more this year with a healthy Portis and now proven Ladell Betts in the fold?

These are all valid observations and questions. The receiving corps will be better just by the fact that Moss will be back and healthy. I also think that they spent a lot of the year trying to figure out how to use Lloyd and Randle El, and they discovered that Randle El makes a pretty good WR2 if called upon. The jury's still out on Lloyd. The offensive line is not going to be better, but I don't believe it will be worse. They lost Dockery, but he was arguably the worst lineman on the team anyway, C Casey Rabach being the only other candidate for that. Todd Wade though will fill in at LG and, now that he's healthy, I don't think they'll miss a beat. In fact, if Jansen comes back healthy they may have some net improvement given how gimpy he was late in the year when Campbell was starting. I don't think they will run much more than they did at the end of last year. I think it's more accurate to simply say that the carries that went to Betts last year will now predominantly go to Portis. Here's their run/pass ratio from week 11 on, when Campbell was starting:20/34*37/2335/3840/2831/2838/2629/31Avg.: 33/30 (52%/48%)*this disparity between running and passing in week 11 at Tampa, in Campbell's first game, is what I believe was Gibbs' final straw regarding his hands-off relationship with Saunders and the offense. After that you saw a much greater devotion to the running game which had Gibbs' fingerprints all over it. If anything, the last 6 games are better indicators as to how the team was calling games "for Campbell". Those numbers average 35/29 (55%/45%). Just by having an entire offseason to work with his teammates and get all the reps a starter gets, Campbell figures to improve. He clearly used his time well during the year and a half that he was carrying the clipboard behind Brunell.

 

[Jason Wood]

Off the top of my head (and I'm lying through my teeth since I have a dynasty draft coming up soon, but bear with me) these are the QB's I'd likely take before Jason Campbell in a dynasty draft. This isn't my order, just copy/pasted from elswhere.

P. Manning

Palmer

Brees

Brady

Vick

Young

Leinart

McNabb

Bulger

Cutler

Roethlisberger

Rivers

Hasselbeck

These are the QB's I'd be looking at about the same time I'd be looking at Campbell.

E. Manning

Russell

Romo

Losman

Quinn

Leftwich

Delhomme

I'm no expert and I'm a Redskin fan, but I sure as hell don't view the Skins through rose-colored glasses. I just think Campbell's going to be a pretty good QB based on what I've seen him do on a bad team so far.

You're not the only person I've seen talk about what Campbell has done so far, and this baffles me. What has he done?53% completion percentage

6.3 yards per attempt

The only thing that even hints at above average performance is the 10 TDs in 7 games. But why would one be comfortable extrapolating that data point forward into 2007 without also extrapolating the very subpar completion percentage and yards per attempt?

Has Campbell's receiving corp improved that I'm unaware?

Has his offensive line gotten better?

Is there any reason to think the team won't run the ball even more this year with a healthy Portis and now proven Ladell Betts in the fold?

Yes, Moss should be healthy.No.

Not really.

But the HUGE difference is that he will go into the season as the starter and "gasp" practice with the starters during the off-season and throughout the season. Seems fairly obvious that he would improve in that situation over getting thrown into the fire after the Skins have nothing to play for last year.

Fair points...but I keep hearing this "he'll get better with a full training camp under his belt" argument. Contrasting that to Chase's data about 2nd year starters versus their 1st years; this seems to be an unfounded reason to project improvement. More QBs have regressed statistically in their 2nd season under center than improved.Also, if Jason Campbell is destined for a leap forward this year, why won't Tony Romo, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler also be in line for improvement by the same logic?

Jason Campbell -- 53% completions, 6.3 YPA, 10 TDs in 7 games
Jay Cutler -- 59% completions, 7.3 YPA, 9 TDs in 5 games
Matt Leinart -- 57% completions, 6.8 YPA, 11 TDs in 11 games
Tony Romo -- 65% completions, 8.6 YPA, 19 TDs in 11 gamesOf the four first time starters last year, Campbell was, by far, the least impressive.

 

[fatness]

You're not the only person I've seen talk about what Campbell has done so far, and this baffles me. What has he done?

53% completion percentage

6.3 yards per attempt

The only thing that even hints at above average performance is the 10 TDs in 7 games.

What more-than-hints at above average performance is that last year's stats were earned*after no practice with the first team offense at all

*on a bad team

*with Moss injured some of the time

*with Portis injured

Thrown in basically cold, he had more-than-adequate command of the plays and players, and threw for more TD's than interceptions.

Is there no end to your Campbell hate? :X

 

[redman]

Off the top of my head (and I'm lying through my teeth since I have a dynasty draft coming up soon, but bear with me) these are the QB's I'd likely take before Jason Campbell in a dynasty draft. This isn't my order, just copy/pasted from elswhere.

P. Manning

Palmer

Brees

Brady

Vick

Young

Leinart

McNabb

Bulger

Cutler

Roethlisberger

Rivers

Hasselbeck

These are the QB's I'd be looking at about the same time I'd be looking at Campbell.

E. Manning

Russell

Romo

Losman

Quinn

Leftwich

Delhomme

I'm no expert and I'm a Redskin fan, but I sure as hell don't view the Skins through rose-colored glasses. I just think Campbell's going to be a pretty good QB based on what I've seen him do on a bad team so far.

You're not the only person I've seen talk about what Campbell has done so far, and this baffles me. What has he done?53% completion percentage

6.3 yards per attempt

The only thing that even hints at above average performance is the 10 TDs in 7 games. But why would one be comfortable extrapolating that data point forward into 2007 without also extrapolating the very subpar completion percentage and yards per attempt?

Has Campbell's receiving corp improved that I'm unaware?

Has his offensive line gotten better?

Is there any reason to think the team won't run the ball even more this year with a healthy Portis and now proven Ladell Betts in the fold?

Yes, Moss should be healthy.No.

Not really.

But the HUGE difference is that he will go into the season as the starter and "gasp" practice with the starters during the off-season and throughout the season. Seems fairly obvious that he would improve in that situation over getting thrown into the fire after the Skins have nothing to play for last year.

Fair points...but I keep hearing this "he'll get better with a full training camp under his belt" argument. Contrasting that to Chase's data about 2nd year starters versus their 1st years; this seems to be an unfounded reason to project improvement. More QBs have regressed statistically in their 2nd season under center than improved.Also, if Jason Campbell is destined for a leap forward this year, why won't Tony Romo, Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler also be in line for improvement by the same logic?

Jason Campbell -- 53% completions, 6.3 YPA, 10 TDs in 7 games
Jay Cutler -- 59% completions, 7.3 YPA, 9 TDs in 5 games
Matt Leinart -- 57% completions, 6.8 YPA, 11 TDs in 11 games
Tony Romo -- 65% completions, 8.6 YPA, 19 TDs in 11 gamesOf the four first time starters last year, Campbell was, by far, the least impressive.

First of all, they run different offenses. The Don Coryell coaching tree tends to use passing to convert third downs and to pop big plays, often on play-action. It's not generally used to move the ball the way it is in the WCO. That's especially true after Gibbs reigned Saunders in late in the year and made sure that the team established the run. The result is that you will get lower completion % (60% tends to be around the high end), but when it's being run optimally the ypa will jump up over 7, and at its best will climb over 8. (See, e.g. Rypien in 1991 & Theismann in 1982-83 for examples of "best years"; see also Fouts generally - note that Fouts was coached by Gibbs in '79-'80, and then by Saunders from 1983-87. Trent Green is also representative, but by the time Saunders was coaching him Saunders was using a more open and exotic offense that relied on the pass more, with a lot of screens for example to Priest Holmes.) That's very different from the WCO, the proponents of which frown at any completion % under 60 given that that offense relies upon many short gains on pass plays to sustain drives.

Romo, Leinart and Cutler (each of whom I like as both NFL and fantasy QB's, BTW) benefitted from the standard inflation of the completion % that the WCO (and its variations) gives. Yes, they all ran slightly different offenses, but I'm sure that those three guys threw more often on first and second down than did Campbell, and those attempts were often for short gains to RB's, or other receivers close to the line of scrimmage.

The bottom line is this: Campbell will improve because those numbers have the greatest room for improvement and because the coaching staff will give him a little more slack in their play calls now that he has their trust. I won't factor in a 5% increase, for example, in Romo's completion % because no one not named Brady or Manning completes 70% of their passes in the NFL. I do think Cutler and Leinart's completion % will increase (and therefore also their ypa), so I'm not inconsistent there at all.