Player Spotlight: Jerry Porter (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jerry Porter, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Player Page Link: Jerry Porter Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[rzrback77]

I think that 2008 will bring simalar results for Jerry Porter owners, disappointment. In 06, in a stand-off with his coach, he played in only four games and had a single reception. In 07, he caught only 44 balls on 103 targets for 705 yards and finished in FBG scoring as WR 37. Currently, his ADP is 100 as WR 36, but I think that he will not even meet that expectation. Jacksonville will remain a run first team behind Fred Taylor, MJ Drew, and Greg Jones. Jacksonville retains Reggie Williams who finished as WR 28 a year ago, but needed ten TDs to get that lofty ranking, as well as Northcutt and off-season wonder Mike Walker. They added Troy Williamson, who is getting nice reviews and with all those options, they will continue to spread the ball around after running first.

Jerry Porter 75 targets 39 catches 585 yards 15.0 ypc and 5 TDs

 

[Sabertooth]

Yep. He's a dud. Just way too much hype.

45 catches, 600 yards, 3 touchdowns.

 

[socrates]

I like Porter to lead the Jags in receptions and yards receiving: 70/900/7

Perhaps this change of scenery is just what was needed.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Del Rio has been pretty on point when it comes to getting the right guys together. He drafted MJD who was passed on by many teams. He inderted Garrard and let Lefty go, and he isn't even on a team. He brings in Porter who might not break any records but I bet he can get back to putting up decent numbers and become a spot starter for a lot of teams if not a solid WR3 in a 12 team+ league. He will be counted on to produce.

I see 60/800/6 TD

Might not be sexy but he will have his moments.

 

[a_troll00]

Here's the thing about Porter... he probably won't go early in a draft. If you pick him, it will probably be as a WR4-5, a pure swinging for the fences pick. He is a guy that had so much potential, and you hope isn't all rusted up now.

Projections? Ahh @#$% who knows? If you're a gambling type, pick him late and hope you get something good.

 

[msommer]

I see 60/800/6 TDMight not be sexy but he will have his moments.

I'm on board with that. Maybe a few more receptions and a YPC closer to 11 - depending on who lines up on the other side. Northcutt???? Williamson???

 

[gman8343]

66 950 8 TDs.

Last season, in arguably the worst QB'd team in the league outside of Carolina, Porter had 705 yds and 6 TDs. Now he's on a more efficient offence with a much better QB and has been brought in to be the go to guy. There's a knucklehead factor here but if he keeps his head on straight, and I think he will, I don't see why Porter won't improve on last year's numbers by a decent margin. Adding 250 and 2 TDs isn't an enormous difference, and now that he's on a competitive team I think he begins to shine.

 

[Sabertooth]

Del Rio has been pretty on point when it comes to getting the right guys together. He drafted MJD who was passed on by many teams. He inderted Garrard and let Lefty go, and he isn't even on a team. He brings in Porter who might not break any records but I bet he can get back to putting up decent numbers and become a spot starter for a lot of teams if not a solid WR3 in a 12 team+ league. He will be counted on to produce.

I see 60/800/6 TD

Might not be sexy but he will have his moments.

Del Rio hasn't shown me one bit that he knows how to evalaute receiving talent. He seems way too caught up in the measurables at the position. He took Reggie Williams (6-4 223) over Lee Evans.

He took Matt Jones (6-6, 235) over Mark Clayton.

I like Jack as a coach/motivator but he just doesn't have an eye for receivers. Jerry Porter is no different. He SHOULD be good but just isn't.

 

[switz]

Del Rio has been pretty on point when it comes to getting the right guys together. He drafted MJD who was passed on by many teams. He inderted Garrard and let Lefty go, and he isn't even on a team. He brings in Porter who might not break any records but I bet he can get back to putting up decent numbers and become a spot starter for a lot of teams if not a solid WR3 in a 12 team+ league. He will be counted on to produce.

I see 60/800/6 TD

Might not be sexy but he will have his moments.

Del Rio hasn't shown me one bit that he knows how to evalaute receiving talent. He seems way too caught up in the measurables at the position. He took Reggie Williams (6-4 223) over Lee Evans.

He took Matt Jones (6-6, 235) over Mark Clayton.

I like Jack as a coach/motivator but he just doesn't have an eye for receivers. Jerry Porter is no different. He SHOULD be good but just isn't.

Does Del Rio run the draft??Porter has twice come close to 1,000 yards, despite being in Crapville. Even Randy Moss looked like puke there...

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Del Rio has been pretty on point when it comes to getting the right guys together. He drafted MJD who was passed on by many teams. He inderted Garrard and let Lefty go, and he isn't even on a team. He brings in Porter who might not break any records but I bet he can get back to putting up decent numbers and become a spot starter for a lot of teams if not a solid WR3 in a 12 team+ league. He will be counted on to produce.

I see 60/800/6 TD

Might not be sexy but he will have his moments.

Del Rio hasn't shown me one bit that he knows how to evalaute receiving talent. He seems way too caught up in the measurables at the position. He took Reggie Williams (6-4 223) over Lee Evans.

He took Matt Jones (6-6, 235) over Mark Clayton.

I like Jack as a coach/motivator but he just doesn't have an eye for receivers. Jerry Porter is no different. He SHOULD be good but just isn't.

Reggie Williams had 10 TD last season my friend...how many did mr Evans catch? I like the passing game in Jax over Buffalo right now. I do see some of what you are saying, I was down on jax but I'm starting to warm up to them a bit. Try to keep an open mind for redrafts as the summer progresses.

 

[switz]

I think that 2008 will bring simalar results for Jerry Porter owners, disappointment. In 06, in a stand-off with his coach, he played in only four games and had a single reception. In 07, he caught only 44 balls on 103 targets for 705 yards and finished in FBG scoring as WR 37. Currently, his ADP is 100 as WR 36, but I think that he will not even meet that expectation. Jacksonville will remain a run first team behind Fred Taylor, MJ Drew, and Greg Jones. Jacksonville retains Reggie Williams who finished as WR 28 a year ago, but needed ten TDs to get that lofty ranking, as well as Northcutt and off-season wonder Mike Walker. They added Troy Williamson, who is getting nice reviews and with all those options, they will continue to spread the ball around after running first.

Jerry Porter 75 targets 39 catches 585 yards 15.0 ypc and 5 TDs

I've seen this Jacksonville is a running team" comment a few times... what do you think Oakland was???Let's see:

Last year JAX threw for @3500 yards

Last year OAK threw for @2800 yards

JAX threw for 25% more yards than than OAK.

Last year JAX threw 469 times.

Last year OAK threw 451 times.

About even in pass attempts

Last year JAX RBs had 61 receptions, @21% of JAX completions (288).

Last year OAK RBs had 98 receptions, @38% of JAX completions (260).

JAX RBs had 38% FEWER receptions than OAK RBs.

Last year JAX had 522 rushing attempts

Last year OAK had 508 rushing attempts

About even in rush attempts

Last year JAX rushing attempts made up 53% of the offensive plays

Last year OAK rushing attempts made up 53% of the offensive plays

Exactly even rushing attempt %

Jacksonville is CLEARLY a better place for a WR to be, in terms of offensive system, passing ability, and involvement of RBs versus WRs in the passing game.

Last season, the Jags threw for 3495 yards, to put that in perspective, Manning only threw for 300 more yards. And one could argue that the Jags will have more passing yards this year, as Garrard will have a season under his belt as the starter, and last time missed 4 games. Quinn Gray his backup averaged a full yard per attempt less than Garrard.

Contrast that with what Porter had to deal with in Oakland last season. The FOUR quarterbacks that threw passes totaled a whopping 2883 yards.

JAX had 3 receivers with over 500 yards receiving, Williams, Northcutt, and Wilford.

Wilford in now in MIA, Northcutt is a journeyman. So that leaves Williams as Porter's competition for #1 WR status, which we know Porter has already locked up. Williams is entering his 5th season, and only twice has exceeded 600 yards. He's a solid #2 WR, but does not have #1 NFL WR potential.

Now the Jags do have other WRs on their roster, but the only one worth even considering is Mike Walker, who has serious injury issues.

Walker will probably battle with Northcutt to be the #3 WR.

Porter really is the uncontested #1 WR, he's the only guy who has the ability to put up 1,000 yards (outside of Walker potentially) and the team is committed to him.

Now that's probably all updside. Of course Garrard could get injured again. Mike Walker could explode to be the #1. Porter could get injured (he's only missed 2 games due to injury in the past 4 years though).

Reality though is that Porter will be a solid #2 FF WR, and has potential to be a lower tier #1 FF WR. He does have risk associated with him, which should cause him to fall a little bit. But to slot him as your 4 or 5 would be a steal.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

When he's had decent-to-excellent qb play (Rich Gannon, Kerry Collins) Jerry Porter's put up solid numbers. David Garrard's a good quarterback so I expect a solid season from him once again. He's nothing special but he's better than Reggie Williams and Matt Jones.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I've always thought Jerry Porter was a better than average wide receiver. I don't think he's quite lived up to some hype he was getting a couple years back but I do think he helps Jacksonville become a better football team, although I don't believe Jerry Porter's fantasy football numbers will be significant. My feeling is that he'll be somewhat productive as a player for Jacksonville and will end up with a couple quality games but you won't know when he'll get those big weeks. He may be worth a later round selection but I'm not going fishing on any of the Jax. receivers.

50 receptions for 699 yards and 5 td's

 

[Jon_Moore]

Porter has never really impressed, especially not the past handful of seasons. He's a fantasy tease. Going from a team with a horrible defense to a team with a top defense usually doesn't mean your receiving numbers improve a ton. He has little competition, with Troy Williamson, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones all showing flashes, but no consistency, he may become the some-what go to guy for an offense that has searched for one since Jimmy Smith hung 'em up.

66 Receptions

891 Yards

6 Tds

 

[Longrifle]

Receptions 60

Receiving Yards 840

Receiving TDs 10

 

[Jon_Moore]

Porter has never really impressed, especially not the past handful of seasons. He's a fantasy tease. Going from a team with a horrible defense to a team with a top defense usually doesn't mean your receiving numbers improve a ton. He has little competition, with Troy Williamson, Reggie Williams, Matt Jones all showing flashes, but no consistency, he may become the some-what go to guy for an offense that has searched for one since Jimmy Williams hung 'em up.66 Receptions891 Yards6 Tds

Who is Jimmy Williams, did you mean Jimmy Smith?

I did indeed sir, good catch.

 

[rzrback77]

I think that 2008 will bring simalar results for Jerry Porter owners, disappointment. In 06, in a stand-off with his coach, he played in only four games and had a single reception. In 07, he caught only 44 balls on 103 targets for 705 yards and finished in FBG scoring as WR 37. Currently, his ADP is 100 as WR 36, but I think that he will not even meet that expectation. Jacksonville will remain a run first team behind Fred Taylor, MJ Drew, and Greg Jones. Jacksonville retains Reggie Williams who finished as WR 28 a year ago, but needed ten TDs to get that lofty ranking, as well as Northcutt and off-season wonder Mike Walker. They added Troy Williamson, who is getting nice reviews and with all those options, they will continue to spread the ball around after running first.

Jerry Porter 75 targets 39 catches 585 yards 15.0 ypc and 5 TDs

I've seen this Jacksonville is a running team" comment a few times... what do you think Oakland was??? do you recall Oaklands QBs and OL struggles the last two years?Let's see:

Last year JAX threw for @3500 yards

Last year OAK threw for @2800 yards 2900

JAX threw for 25% more yards than than OAK. 20%

Last year JAX threw 469 times. An increase of 1.5 per game over 06

Last year OAK threw 451 times. Their lowest in the past three years

About even in pass attempts oakland will pass more in 08 than Jax

Last year JAX RBs had 61 receptions, @21% of JAX completions (288).

Last year OAK RBs had 98 receptions, @38% of JAX completions (260).

JAX RBs had 38% FEWER receptions than OAK RBs.

Last year JAX had 522 rushing attempts

Last year OAK had 508 rushing attempts I counted 477, which is 47 less than Jax

About even in rush attempts

Last year JAX rushing attempts made up 53% of the offensive plays

Last year OAK rushing attempts made up 53% of the offensive plays 51%

Exactly even rushing attempt % close, but still less

Jacksonville is CLEARLY a better place for a WR to be, in terms of offensive system, passing ability, and involvement of RBs versus WRs in the passing game. Totally disagree

Last season, the Jags threw for 3495 yards, to put that in perspective, Manning only threw for 300 more yards. And one could argue that the Jags will have more passing yards this year, as Garrard will have a season under his belt as the starter, and last time missed 4 games. Quinn Gray his backup averaged a full yard per attempt less than Garrard.

Contrast that with what Porter had to deal with in Oakland last season. The FOUR quarterbacks that threw passes totaled a whopping 2883 yards.

JAX had 3 receivers with over 500 yards receiving, Williams, Northcutt, and Wilford.

Wilford in now in MIA, Northcutt is a journeyman. So that leaves Williams as Porter's competition for #1 WR status, which we know Porter has already locked up. Williams is entering his 5th season, and only twice has exceeded 600 yards. He's a solid #2 WR, but does not have #1 NFL WR potential.

Now the Jags do have other WRs on their roster, but the only one worth even considering is Mike Walker, who has serious injury issues.

Walker will probably battle with Northcutt to be the #3 WR.

Porter really is the uncontested #1 WR, he's the only guy who has the ability to put up 1,000 yards (outside of Walker potentially) and the team is committed to him. Wasn't he that last year also? Where has he been the past three seasons?

Now that's probably all updside. Of course Garrard could get injured again. Mike Walker could explode to be the #1. Porter could get injured (he's only missed 2 games due to injury in the past 4 years though).

Reality though is that Porter will be a solid #2 FF WR, and has potential to be a lower tier #1 FF WR. He does have risk associated with him, which should cause him to fall a little bit. But to slot him as your 4 or 5 would be a steal.

I see him as a huge hit and miss type guy this year with some big games and several no shows, as will be most of the Jax WRs as they have been for the past several years and not a steal wherever you take him. Just my opinion though and I think that the Oakland Raiders will outpass Jax in 08.

 

[switz]

I've seen this Jacksonville is a running team" comment a few times... what do you think Oakland was??? do you recall Oaklands QBs and OL struggles the last two years?

Yep, and their line is STILL a mess, and they are starting basically a rookie QB, and they spent their top pick on an RB. What direction do you think they are going in?

Last year JAX threw for @3500 yards

Last year OAK threw for @2800 yards 2900

JAX threw for 25% more yards than than OAK. 20%

And your point is???? Even with your incorrect numbers Jacksonville threw much more than Oakland.

Last year JAX threw 469 times. An increase of 1.5 per game over 06

Last year OAK threw 451 times. Their lowest in the past three years

About even in pass attempts oakland will pass more in 08 than Jax

Jacksonville made a number of moves to improve their passing game, and Oakland's one move to improve their passing offense is questionable whether he'll be able to play at all. Oakland then made moves to improve their running game.

Last year JAX had 522 rushing attempts

Last year OAK had 508 rushing attempts I counted 477, which is 47 less than Jax

About even in rush attempts

You counted wrong. Try pro-football-reference.com

Porter really is the uncontested #1 WR, he's the only guy who has the ability to put up 1,000 yards (outside of Walker potentially) and the team is committed to him. Wasn't he that last year also? Where has he been the past three seasons?

Last season, you know Oak was a mess. The two years prior he was in the coaches doghouse, but that was a coach problem. Again, Moss wasn't a superstar those two years either.

I see him as a huge hit and miss type guy this year with some big games and several no shows, as will be most of the Jax WRs as they have been for the past several years and not a steal wherever you take him. Just my opinion though and I think that the Oakland Raiders will outpass Jax in 08.

Your opinion is all yours. I don't know where you're drawing your conclusion from, but hey, we all gather our data differently I guess.

 

[Jimmy James]

50/700/6

 

[mlball77]

Porter is a pretty talented WR, but I feel Garrard will continue to spread the ball around while effectively running the offense. I don't see any of the JAX receivers posting a big season in 2008.

Recs: 48

Yards: 650

TDs: 4

 

[Burning Sensation]

46, 620, 4

 

[NoFBinLA]

Biggest concern right now is he's already banged up (see Lammey & Bloom's interview with Chris Harris a few weeks back about this very subject) and we haven't even hit training camp.

If he can stay healthy, he will be the #1 in a passing offense that has needed somethign resembling that for some time. Reggie Williams just can't do it consistently and I think his TD totals last year will drop this year.

But back to Porter - if he stays healthy, I think he'll get his fair share of balls and looks. As has been pointed out, he has had decent production on some crappy OAK teams - Garrard is better than just about anyone who has worn a Raiders QB jersey for some time. He'll spread the ball around and that might hurt Porter's numbers but if Jerry is healthy, he'll pproduce.

I think you can get him on the cheap and he'll function as a solid #3 or 4 WR - maybe better.

I figure somewhere around 60 rec, 700yds and 6 TDs

 

[ninerfan]

75 Receptions, 900 Yards, 8 TD's.

 

[JaxBill]

Yes, Switz, the Jaguars are a run-first team. If you look at PFR, you'll see that they had 522 rushing attempts which is second in the league. Yes, I know they controlled the ball and ran more plays but their passing attempts(469) were only ranked 27 in the league.

That being said, if Porter stays healthy, the roles in Jax are becoming clearer. Porter is the big-play guy, Reggie Williams is the possession receiver, and Northcutt returns to the slot receiver that is really his best role. With the running game, Porter should see single coverage and a lot of safeties up.

Fantasy-wise, I think he's very good WR3 perhaps a borderline WR2. 64/850/8.

 

[gman8343]

Yes, Switz, the Jaguars are a run-first team. If you look at PFR, you'll see that they had 522 rushing attempts which is second in the league. Yes, I know they controlled the ball and ran more plays but their passing attempts(469) were only ranked 27 in the league.That being said, if Porter stays healthy, the roles in Jax are becoming clearer. Porter is the big-play guy, Reggie Williams is the possession receiver, and Northcutt returns to the slot receiver that is really his best role. With the running game, Porter should see single coverage and a lot of safeties up.Fantasy-wise, I think he's very good WR3 perhaps a borderline WR2. 64/850/8.

I think I read somewhere that Jax is planning on opening up the offense a bit this season and going downfield more --- am I crazy? I could have sworn it said something to that affect, and that Porter would be the main beneficiary from this -- can't find it now though, so maybe I'm wrong.

 

[switz]

Yes, Switz, the Jaguars are a run-first team. If you look at PFR, you'll see that they had 522 rushing attempts which is second in the league. Yes, I know they controlled the ball and ran more plays but their passing attempts(469) were only ranked 27 in the league.That being said, if Porter stays healthy, the roles in Jax are becoming clearer. Porter is the big-play guy, Reggie Williams is the possession receiver, and Northcutt returns to the slot receiver that is really his best role. With the running game, Porter should see single coverage and a lot of safeties up.Fantasy-wise, I think he's very good WR3 perhaps a borderline WR2. 64/850/8.

I think I read somewhere that Jax is planning on opening up the offense a bit this season and going downfield more --- am I crazy? I could have sworn it said something to that affect, and that Porter would be the main beneficiary from this -- can't find it now though, so maybe I'm wrong.

AFAIK you are correct. Remember last season was Garrard's first season as the starter. They were very conservative with their offense. Additionally, they really didn't have any pass catching threats, so it was hard to use the passing game much. They will still run a lot, but they will open up the passing game more than last season.

 

[switz]

Yes, Switz, the Jaguars are a run-first team. If you look at PFR, you'll see that they had 522 rushing attempts which is second in the league. Yes, I know they controlled the ball and ran more plays but their passing attempts(469) were only ranked 27 in the league.

If you bothered to read my post, you'd know that I already knew all that. The question is - is it a better or worse situation for Porter? The answer is it's clearly better.

 

[lod01]

Yes, Switz, the Jaguars are a run-first team. If you look at PFR, you'll see that they had 522 rushing attempts which is second in the league. Yes, I know they controlled the ball and ran more plays but their passing attempts(469) were only ranked 27 in the league.

If you bothered to read my post, you'd know that I already knew all that. The question is - is it a better or worse situation for Porter? The answer is it's clearly better.

It may be better but he is still 'me first' Jerry Porter. I'll 2nd the 46-680 4 TD posts. The Jags sub in and use ALL their WR's. No one stays on the field as a #1.

 

[switz]

The Jags sub in and use ALL their WR's. No one stays on the field as a #1.

The question is: Was that by design, or a product of their personnel?

 

[foxco]

The Jags sub in and use ALL their WR's. No one stays on the field as a #1.

The question is: Was that by design, or a product of their personnel?

I think people were saying the same thing about the Pats last season and how they spread the ball around so much Randy Moss wouldn't be that valuable. Not that I'm comparing Porter to Moss, but IMO Porter is the best WR on the Jags by a fair margin, and will be the go to guy. We'll see if he succeeds.

 

[Badm]

Without giving out subscriber info, I noticed Porter's projections in Draft Dominator are extremly low. Hackett and Meacham have higher projections. Was wondering if this was a typo or did I miss some intel on Porter?

 

[saintfool]

Without giving out subscriber info, I noticed Porter's projections in Draft Dominator are extremly low. Hackett and Meacham have higher projections. Was wondering if this was a typo or did I miss some intel on Porter?

my guess? hackett and meachem are WR's in QB friendly systems. Hackett looks to be the #2 and meachem looks like a lock for the #3. while porter, coming off the hamstring injury that will keep him out of camp and that's not a good thing, plays on poor passing team.