Player Spotlight: Joseph Addai (2 Viewers)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Player Page Link: Joseph Addai Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Blackjacks]

I never have liked Addai. I think he is soft, runs up high and can't break a tackle. The one thing he does do good is blocks in the backfield for his qb and when you have a franchise guy back their like Peyton, you protect him. His blocking will keep him on the field, until he gets hurt, and keep Brown behind him for awhile.

Eventually this is Brown's job but Addai might have one descent season left in him due strictly to oppurtunity.

240 carries

960 yards

8 td's

50 catches

400 yards

1 td

very descent value for a guy you can get in the 5th round

 

[MAC_32]

He should get one more opportunity early in the season, Donald Brown's greatest issues are pass blocking and that will keep him on the bench in this offense if not corrected early in camp. That said, if Addai's ineffectiveness and softness return his touches will steadily fall off. Given where I've seen him going in drafts, I'm probably passing, I'm more likely to take a chance on him in a shallow league in which I can more easily replace him. The starting RB in this offense is certainly worth a 4th/5th round pick but that may not be Addai for too long if 2008 is any indicator. A lot of potential reward here, but a ton of risk too.

 

[Darker Knight]

260/1100/10.....40/350/2

 

[pizzatyme]

Too mant people are writing Addai off too soon. He will start the season as the starter and it will be his job to lose. I look for the Colts offense to be much more effective in both the passand run games. The line is more seasoned. And Manning is starting the season healthy as in year's past. Addai represents great value going in the 5th round of 12 or 14 teaqm drafts. Too many times people fall in love with the rookie "replacement". While I like Brown to get 30-35% of the touches, Addai will far outperform his current ADP.

265/1150/10

35/275/2

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I am of the opinion that Addai might represents one of the Top 5 values in FF this year. Let's review 2008 for a second.

1) Addai was prenially nicked up. He suffered in order; concussion, hamstring tear, shoulder injury. He simply was never healthy in 2008.

2) Manning started off the year essentially unable to run their patented stretch play, of which they also based quite a bit of play action off because of his knee injury. In order to get wide, the Colts replaced that with toss sweeps which has completely different timing and does not hold the defense. As such, the versatily and diversity of their run attack was severely crippled.

3) Ryan Lilja missed the season. Jeff Saturday missed 4 games. Tony Ugoh regressed and while he played in 15 games, only started 12. During the course of the season, the Colts had to incorporate 2nd & 6th round rookies (Mike Pollack and Steve Justice).

Quite simply, there were alot of factors working against the Colts running game in 2008 which led to subpar production.

Alot of people are pointing to the acquisition of Donald Brown as a foretelling of a reduced role for Addai. But remember that the Colts allowed Dominic Rhodes to leave via FA. They also know that even at his peak performance level, Addai is probably best used at about a 250 carry limit (although he can also be counted on for 50 receptions). So 300 touches are the top line limit for what the Colts should ask of Addai. That leaves plenty of production and opportunity for Brown. Not to mention, a legitimate threat to potentially challenge for his job at some point. But I think the Colts are a franchise that will allow Addai every opportunity to return to form and there were legitimate reasons for Addai falling off. Rhodes himself was only a 3.4 YPC performer last year.

Prediction: 246 Rushes, 1075 Rushing Yards, 10 TD's; 53 Receptions 361 Receiving Yards, 2 TD's.

 

[thecardiackid]

He should get one more opportunity early in the season, Donald Brown's greatest issues are pass blocking and that will keep him on the bench in this offense if not corrected early in camp. That said, if Addai's ineffectiveness and softness return his touches will steadily fall off. Given where I've seen him going in drafts, I'm probably passing, I'm more likely to take a chance on him in a shallow league in which I can more easily replace him. The starting RB in this offense is certainly worth a 4th/5th round pick but that may not be Addai for too long if 2008 is any indicator. A lot of potential reward here, but a ton of risk too.

While I agree for the most part, DirtyWord makes a lot of good points. I think most of us agree that Addai is not a 'elite' RB talent, but he's not terrible either. And he's playing 09 with a talented 1st round rookie on deck. I think that motivation, combined w/ the IND offensive machine could produce a good season for Addai - relative to his ADP. Bottom line though, he MUST stay healthy - and the odds of that do not look good. If Addai is ineffective, or gets hurt for a 3+ game stretch, he will probably experience the other side of his rookie year when he displaced Rhodes. Brown gets around a 50% split and Addai is on another team next year.Dynasty owners need to hope for a solid start, and opportunity to sell high(er - than now), b/c while he's young and might get another shot elsewhere - he really just isn't a superior talent. That, and he is constantly getting hurt.

 

[Tanner9919]

I am of the opinion that Addai might represents one of the Top 5 values in FF this year. Let's review 2008 for a second.

1) Addai was prenially nicked up. He suffered in order; concussion, hamstring tear, shoulder injury. He simply was never healthy in 2008.

2) Manning started off the year essentially unable to run their patented stretch play, of which they also based quite a bit of play action off because of his knee injury. In order to get wide, the Colts replaced that with toss sweeps which has completely different timing and does not hold the defense. As such, the versatily and diversity of their run attack was severely crippled.

3) Ryan Lilja missed the season. Jeff Saturday missed 4 games. Tony Ugoh regressed and while he played in 15 games, only started 12. During the course of the season, the Colts had to incorporate 2nd & 6th round rookies (Mike Pollack and Steve Justice).

Quite simply, there were alot of factors working against the Colts running game in 2008 which led to subpar production.

Alot of people are pointing to the acquisition of Donald Brown as a foretelling of a reduced role for Addai. But remember that the Colts allowed Dominic Rhodes to leave via FA. They also know that even at his peak performance level, Addai is probably best used at about a 250 carry limit (although he can also be counted on for 50 receptions). So 300 touches are the top line limit for what the Colts should ask of Addai. That leaves plenty of production and opportunity for Brown. Not to mention, a legitimate threat to potentially challenge for his job at some point. But I think the Colts are a franchise that will allow Addai every opportunity to return to form and there were legitimate reasons for Addai falling off. Rhodes himself was only a 3.4 YPC performer last year.

Prediction: 246 Rushes, 1075 Rushing Yards, 10 TD's; 53 Receptions 361 Receiving Yards, 2 TD's.

I hear what you're saying, Addai is just a year removed from a 12-TD season...but..I don't know, Addai was outplayed by D. Rhodes last season, as Rhodes had the same ypc avg, many more recs, and only slightly fewer rushing yards then Addai

When Polian releases Rhodes and drafts a RB in the first round, we take notice..

I think the writing is on the wall with Addai, and has been since the moment the Colts selected D. Brown in the first round in April's draft..Brown is a bull, it's going to be hard to keep him off the field. this is going to be exciting to watch the Colts in training camp ,that's for sure!

and this notion that's been passed around that Brown isn't a good pass-blocking RB , really is a non-issue, I mean, how many times has Peyton Manning been sacked in his career??! We're not talking about Marc Bulger getting pounded into the turf 5-7 times/game...

Colts avg 418 att/yr last 3 seasons. Addai never carried the ball more than 261 times in a single season, in fact, his 3-yr avg is just 214 carries/yr

418 team atts minus Addai's 214 avg, leaves 204 for Brown et al.

giving Addai 4.0 per carry, his totals would be a paltry

214/877/8 ( career avg/yr in TDs)

a somewhat decent #3 RB, nothing more IMO...

 

[Addai's Adidas]

I need to change my username first of all.

I expect nothing much. He won' be on any of my teams.

225/750/6 25rec/200/2

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I am of the opinion that Addai might represents one of the Top 5 values in FF this year. Let's review 2008 for a second.

1) Addai was prenially nicked up. He suffered in order; concussion, hamstring tear, shoulder injury. He simply was never healthy in 2008.

2) Manning started off the year essentially unable to run their patented stretch play, of which they also based quite a bit of play action off because of his knee injury. In order to get wide, the Colts replaced that with toss sweeps which has completely different timing and does not hold the defense. As such, the versatily and diversity of their run attack was severely crippled.

3) Ryan Lilja missed the season. Jeff Saturday missed 4 games. Tony Ugoh regressed and while he played in 15 games, only started 12. During the course of the season, the Colts had to incorporate 2nd & 6th round rookies (Mike Pollack and Steve Justice).

Quite simply, there were alot of factors working against the Colts running game in 2008 which led to subpar production.

Alot of people are pointing to the acquisition of Donald Brown as a foretelling of a reduced role for Addai. But remember that the Colts allowed Dominic Rhodes to leave via FA. They also know that even at his peak performance level, Addai is probably best used at about a 250 carry limit (although he can also be counted on for 50 receptions). So 300 touches are the top line limit for what the Colts should ask of Addai. That leaves plenty of production and opportunity for Brown. Not to mention, a legitimate threat to potentially challenge for his job at some point. But I think the Colts are a franchise that will allow Addai every opportunity to return to form and there were legitimate reasons for Addai falling off. Rhodes himself was only a 3.4 YPC performer last year.

Prediction: 246 Rushes, 1075 Rushing Yards, 10 TD's; 53 Receptions 361 Receiving Yards, 2 TD's.

I hear what you're saying, Addai is just a year removed from a 12-TD season...but..I don't know, Addai was outplayed by D. Rhodes last season, as Rhodes had the same ypc avg, many more recs, and only slightly fewer rushing yards then Addai

When Polian releases Rhodes and drafts a RB in the first round, we take notice..

I think the writing is on the wall with Addai, and has been since the moment the Colts selected D. Brown in the first round in April's draft..Brown is a bull, it's going to be hard to keep him off the field. this is going to be exciting to watch the Colts in training camp ,that's for sure!

and this notion that's been passed around that Brown isn't a good pass-blocking RB , really is a non-issue, I mean, how many times has Peyton Manning been sacked in his career??! We're not talking about Marc Bulger getting pounded into the turf 5-7 times/game...

Colts avg 418 att/yr last 3 seasons. Addai never carried the ball more than 261 times in a single season, in fact, his 3-yr avg is just 214 carries/yr

418 team atts minus Addai's 214 avg, leaves 204 for Brown et al.

giving Addai 4.0 per carry, his totals would be a paltry

214/877/8 ( career avg/yr in TDs)

a somewhat decent #3 RB, nothing more IMO...

Perhaps you can say Rhodes was as productive as a compromised Addai, but I don't think if both backs are healthy, you can't say they are apples to apples. Secondly, Rhodes signed a one year contract with the Colts for $605K, so Polian didn't release him, he just chose not to resign him. Considering Rhodes signed for compensation that will total $1.2M in 2009, there is a good chance the Colts figured that was too much to pay. They made do with Kenton Keith in that role in 2007 - a worst case scenario had them having to find another Kenton Keith. That said, if Addai goes down, they realized that having a Rhodes/Keith would not help float their running game during his absense. Addai played in 31 of a possible 32 games his first two years in the NFL, the Colts didn't feel the pain of an extended Addai absense or a less than 100% bellcow. Drafting another RB fortifies depth at that position.When you look at 2008's workload split, most of Rhodes production came when Addai was out. In the games Addai missed or went out early (5), Rhodes put up these numbers:

96 carries

329 Yards

5 TD's

23 Receptions

172 Yards

1 TD

Taking into account playing time or production split information over the last three seasons and projecting it to 2009 is misleading because the Colts were careful in their use of Addai his rookie year and last year he was injured a great deal. I will say it's a fair concern to wonder about Addai's durability, but I do tend to err on the side of not taking into account an injury factor when making forward looking predictions.

At the end of the day, Addai is 26 this season. He still has alot of miles left in those legs. Too often, I think we only look at a players production the season before and base our projections on that season. I think this is a time where you have to look beyond last season to see the true value.

After averaging 442 carries in 2006/2007, that number dipped to 370 (30th in the NFL) in 2008. To commit to running the ball more, it's not surprising the Colts opted in infuse a fresh talent into that mix and I think Brown stands to be used quite a lot. That could mean 150 carries and a few receptions as well (although he was not utililized much in the passing game at UConn). Still, I think Addai has the talent and experience to hold onto the job.

 

[switz]

Addai was outplayed by D. Rhodes last season, as Rhodes had the same ypc avg, many more recs, and only slightly fewer rushing yards then Addai

This board is notorious for it's Addai hate. Just take a look at the line above for reference...Addai was "outplayed" by a guy with "the same ypc avg ... and only slightly fewer rushing yards"? That makes zero sense.

265 carries, 4.4 YPC, 1,166 yards, 42 receptions, 8.1 YPR, 340 yards, 14 total TDs.[/B]

edited for formatting

 

[Colin Dowling]

Brown coming on board means that Addai will likely never be a 350 touch back, to which I say, "so what?" I'm not sure anyone envisioned that he would be that kind of runner (at least not for very long) for his career. It seems to me that the only way Addai doesn't offer some decent value in round 5 or so is if Brown overtakes him as a workhorse type of back. While that may be possible, I think that the NFL trend towards getting multiple rushers involved is nothing new to the Colts. Brown may one day be the 60% back to Addai's 40%, but I doubt it will be next season. And if the COlts offense comes together like it has historically, both players could be nice choices on draft day.

240 carries, 980 yards, 7 tds

35 rec., 280 yards, 1 td

1200+ yards and 8 tds is the same production we're seeing predicted for guys taken in round 2 and 3.

 

[rzrback77]

I believe that the Joseph Addai from 06 and 07 is more likely to be the Addai for 09 than the one that played last season. I think the combination of his injuries, Peyton Manning missing pre-season work, and the OL struggles are all factors in the down-turn for Addai last season. Let's look at career stats:

06 Addai 16 gms 226 rushes 1081 yds 4.8 ypc 7 TDs 50 targets 40 catches 80% 325 yds 8.1 ypc and 1 TD RB11 non-ppr

07 Addai 15 gms 261 rushes 1072 yds 4.1 ypc 12 TDs 49 targets 41 catches 84% 364 yds 8.9 ypc and 3 TD RB5 non-ppr

08 Addai 12 gms 155 rushes 544 yds 3.5 ypc 5 TDs 39 targets 25 catches 64% 206 yds 8.2 ypc and 2 TD RB39 non-ppr

06 other RBs 190 rushes 645 yds 3.4 ypc 6 TDs 46 targets 36 catches 78% 251 yds 7.0 ypc 0 TDs (mostly Rhodes) less productive than Addai

07 other RBs 156 rushes 610 yds 3.9 ypc 4 TDs 35 targets 19 catches 54% 121 yds 6.4 ypc 2 TDs (mostly Keith) much less productive than Addai

08 other RBs 179 rushes 623 yds 3.5 ypc 7 TDs 66 targets 53 catches 80% 404 yds 7.6 ypc 3 TDs (mostly Rhodes) equal production as Addai

During 06 and 07, when Addai was healthy, he has had 58.5% of the carries and 59.6% of the catches. I will grant that the rookie Donald Brown should be the best athlete of the other RBs that have been there with Addai, but as a rookie will likely see similar opportunities to the other back-up RBs over the previous years when Addai was healthy. In addition, Addai may get a fewer more redzone opportunities with Marvin gone.

Joe Addai 240 carries 1032 yds 4.3 ypc 50 targets 40 catches 352 yards 8.8 ypc and 14 total TDs

 

[Tau837]

and this notion that's been passed around that Brown isn't a good pass-blocking RB , really is a non-issue, I mean, how many times has Peyton Manning been sacked in his career??! We're not talking about Marc Bulger getting pounded into the turf 5-7 times/game...

Well, I suspect one small reason Manning hasn't been sacked a lot in his career is that the Colts have not put poor blocking rookie RBs on the field. Addai was considered to be a good pass blocker entering the league. The only other rookie RB Manning has played with is Edge... not sure how good he was as a blocker.

Colts avg 418 att/yr last 3 seasons. Addai never carried the ball more than 261 times in a single season, in fact, his 3-yr avg is just 214 carries/yr 418 team atts minus Addai's 214 avg, leaves 204 for Brown et al.giving Addai 4.0 per carry, his totals would be a paltry214/877/8 ( career avg/yr in TDs)

Your numbers are misleading.Addai has averaged 15 carries per game in his NFL career, which scales to 240 carries over 16 games. Also, the Colts over the past 3 seasons have averaged 388 RB rushing attempts, not 418. Assuming Addai will be healthy, if he hits his average of 240, that would leave only 148 for Brown and the other RBs.

 

[gheemony]

can anyone point me to a link substantiating the view that Brown is not a good pass-blocker?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Addai was outplayed by D. Rhodes last season, as Rhodes had the same ypc avg, many more recs, and only slightly fewer rushing yards then Addai

This board is notorious for it's Addai hate. Just take a look at the line above for reference...Addai was "outplayed" by a guy with "the same ypc avg ... and only slightly fewer rushing yards"? That makes zero sense.

Wow, so that's twisting things around in a pretty weird way.  The way you lead into those stats I was expecting to see Addai with clearly better numbers when I looked at them.Now, let's [I]really[/I] be realistic here, as you put it.  Rhodes didn't really play in the first 4 games, at that time it was Addai's job and he didn't have more than 2 carries in any of those games.  [I]Realistically[/I] those numbers that Rhodes put up came in 11 games, not 15.  [I]Realistically[/I], Rhodes put up about 50 more yards and 2 more TDs than Addai in one fewer game, once he [I]actually[/I] started playing.

I don't think Rhodes is anywhere near the back Addai is, and think this was largely a result of Addai playing hurt last year.  But you're twisting around the numbers like crazy.

 

[Lab]

can anyone point me to a link substantiating the view that Brown is not a good pass-blocker?

"Struggles in pass blocking" (KFFL: http://www.kffl.com/article.php/95107/ )But see this:

"can also block" (CBS: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1251085 )

 

[jdswan922]

Addai was outplayed by D. Rhodes last season, as Rhodes had the same ypc avg, many more recs, and only slightly fewer rushing yards then Addai

This board is notorious for it's Addai hate. Just take a look at the line above for reference...Addai was "outplayed" by a guy with "the same ypc avg ... and only slightly fewer rushing yards"? That makes zero sense.

Wow, so that's twisting things around in a pretty weird way.  The way you lead into those stats I was expecting to see Addai with clearly better numbers when I looked at them.Now, let's [I]really[/I] be realistic here, as you put it.  Rhodes didn't really play in the first 4 games, at that time it was Addai's job and he didn't have more than 2 carries in any of those games.  [I]Realistically[/I] those numbers that Rhodes put up came in 11 games, not 15.  [I]Realistically[/I], Rhodes put up about 50 more yards and 2 more TDs than Addai in one fewer game, once he [I]actually[/I] started playing.

I don't think Rhodes is anywhere near the back Addai is, and think this was largely a result of Addai playing hurt last year.  But you're twisting around the numbers like crazy.

[/QUOTE]I don't have a dog in this fight, but you have to do that for both players then, not just the one for whom it suits your argument.  Addai played in 2 games in which he only had 1 and 2 carries, so his games are down to 10.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

can anyone point me to a link substantiating the view that Brown is not a good pass-blocker?

"Struggles in pass blocking" (KFFL: http://www.kffl.com/article.php/95107/ )But see this:

"can also block" (CBS: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/1251085 )

"Blocking Ability: Brown is an adequate blocker, but limited. He will bend and pop in pass protection and will attempt to stand his ground, but when he keeps his arms close to his body, he fails to pick up the blitz and sustain. He's a decent cut blocker who will try to face up and strike, but he does not stone defenders. GRADE: 5.5"

 

[Rushmore]

The thing about Brown that intrigues me most is his work ethic. I think if he has a weakness, he seems to be the type of player that will work his butt off to improve on it.

 

[switz]

Addai was outplayed by D. Rhodes last season, as Rhodes had the same ypc avg, many more recs, and only slightly fewer rushing yards then Addai

This board is notorious for it's Addai hate. Just take a look at the line above for reference...Addai was "outplayed" by a guy with "the same ypc avg ... and only slightly fewer rushing yards"? That makes zero sense.

Wow, so that's twisting things around in a pretty weird way.  The way you lead into those stats I was expecting to see Addai with clearly better numbers when I looked at them.Now, let's [I]really[/I] be realistic here, as you put it.  Rhodes didn't really play in the first 4 games, at that time it was Addai's job and he didn't have more than 2 carries in any of those games.  [I]Realistically[/I] those numbers that Rhodes put up came in 11 games, not 15.  [I]Realistically[/I], Rhodes put up about 50 more yards and 2 more TDs than Addai in one fewer game, once he [I]actually[/I] started playing.

I don't think Rhodes is anywhere near the back Addai is, and think this was largely a result of Addai playing hurt last year.  But you're twisting around the numbers like crazy.

[/QUOTE]What numbers did I twist? Their season stats are listed line above line. If you looked at them without knowing who was who, and I didn't comment on them at all, there's no doubt you would NOT say one "clearly outplayed the other". Period.Neverminding the fact that the same argument you use to lower the number of games Rhodes played, lowers Addai's games to 10 one less than you claim Rhodes played.

I love how someone can refute a point with clear, solid statistical evidence. And instead of countering it with more powerful evidence, the route of attack is to call the numbers twisted. It's laughable really, to what length Addai haters on this board will go to try to make him look bad.

 

[GoBirds]

So I reached for Addai last night late 4th as RB's were flying off the board but was also able to get Donald Brown in the 9th. I'm looking fo some Indy homers takes on how this will shake out, I haven't had a chance to follow their preseason.

 

[Mr. Mojo]

So I reached for Addai last night late 4th as RB's were flying off the board but was also able to get Donald Brown in the 9th. I'm looking fo some Indy homers takes on how this will shake out, I haven't had a chance to follow their preseason.

That sounds like the way to go. :X Somehow I feel like whatever I do or don't do with Addai this year will turn out to be a mistake.

 

[GoBirds]

So I reached for Addai last night late 4th as RB's were flying off the board but was also able to get Donald Brown in the 9th. I'm looking fo some Indy homers takes on how this will shake out, I haven't had a chance to follow their preseason.

That sounds like the way to go. :X Somehow I feel like whatever I do or don't do with Addai this year will turn out to be a mistake.

How is he looking going into the season? Will he carry the load until he gets hurt then they start to transfer the load? Would like to roll with him at flex but also have A Gonz if the running game is still up in the air.

 

[pizzatyme]

My post #5 still holds weight for me. I called it in June BTW.

 

[djcolts]

So I reached for Addai last night late 4th as RB's were flying off the board but was also able to get Donald Brown in the 9th. I'm looking fo some Indy homers takes on how this will shake out, I haven't had a chance to follow their preseason.

That sounds like the way to go. Somehow I feel like whatever I do or don't do with Addai this year will turn out to be a mistake.

How is he looking going into the season? Will he carry the load until he gets hurt then they start to transfer the load? Would like to roll with him at flex but also have A Gonz if the running game is still up in the air.

Addai looked good in limited carries in pre-season. Brown is #2 - and they really don't have much of a #3 (Chad Simpson - kept because he can return kickoffs). This may be a better run-blocking unit than pass-blocking unit this season (relatively compared other Colts seasons - I don't mean a great run-blocking unit compared to other top NFL teams) - Charlie Johnson is an LT who probably will be a better run blocker than pass blocker - and their best run blocker (Lilja) will be back this season after not playing last season.I probably won't draft either Colts RB tonight in my draft, but I live in Indy, so I rarely end up with Colts on my fantasy teams. My feeling on how Colts will do compared their ADPs:Addai (better)Brown (worse unless Addai gets hurt)Gonzazlez and Wayne (same)Manning (slightly worse - I'm not sure the D will get off the field, which is what hurts his fantasy value more than most people realize)Colts D (I thought would be better before pre-season, now - I'd look elsewhere for a fantasy D).Clark (slightly better)