Player Spotlight: Julius Jones (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Julius Jones, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Player Page Link: Julius Jones Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Englishteacher]

225 carries, 855 yards, 3.8 ypc, 6 TD's

32 catches, 218 yards, 6.8 ypc, 1 TD

 

[loose circuits]

197 840 4

25 227 3

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Julius Jones is not a very good running back which in and of itself certainly doesn't keep him from having fantasy success if he has opportunity. The problem with Jones is that the amount of rushing opportunities are largely unknown. TJ Duckett and Maurice Morris also figure to get some playing time. Jones is the best rb of the mix but that isn't saying much.

The big worry about Jones is that TJ Duckett could receive most of the goal-line carries for the Seahawks as he's done so in the past. If that happens Julius Jones already limited value goes down the drain.

 

[by_the_sea_wannabe]

949 - 4

20 - 160

meh

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Mediocre player + poor rushing team + RBBC =

Julius seems to be a trendy sleeper/value pick in 2008, but I don't see much of anything to like here. He'll go long before I feel comfortable taking him in every draft.

200 carries for 750 yards, 20 catches for 150 yards, 4 total TDs

 

[MAC_32]

The opportunity is there, but the talent just isn't. He had a nice run of games his rookie year but has shown his true stripes in the years that have followed. When he gets the touches he'll put up under whelming numbers, when he doesn't he will cause his owners the same grief they've endured the last two seasons. The 5th-ish round price is way too high, I'd rather buy into Duckett late.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

The Seahawks signed Julius Jones to take the lead role in a running-back-by-committee, but I'm not convinced that he's a better runner than Maurice Morris – or even than T.J. Duckett, for that matter. If Jones splits carries with Morris between the twenties, then lets Duckett take over on the goal line, he's not worth his current early fifth-round ADP.

122 rushes for 479 yards and 3 TDs / 12 catches for 95 yards and 0 TDs

 

[Ministry of Pain]

He will get about 15 carries a game, more in games where he is running well. I see a 60/40 split with MoMo, but don't count out Justin Forsett at some point. I am no fan of TJ Duckett and see him barely making the roster if at all.

240 carries 960 yds 6 TD

40 rec 320 yds 2 TD

1280 yds and 8 TD...he has some value actually. he could do even better numbers is things go right for him. Lack of WR hurts the offense but it might open up more chances for the backs.

 

[MAC_32]

He will get about 15 carries a game, more in games where he is running well. I see a 60/40 split with MoMo, but don't count out Justin Forsett at some point. I am no fan of TJ Duckett and see him barely making the roster if at all. 240 carries 960 yds 6 TD40 rec 320 yds 2 TD1280 yds and 8 TD...he has some value actually. he could do even better numbers is things go right for him. Lack of WR hurts the offense but it might open up more chances for the backs.

Julie is not a good receiving back, he'll get some rec's because he's there but I wouldn't expect too much.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

He will get about 15 carries a game, more in games where he is running well. I see a 60/40 split with MoMo, but don't count out Justin Forsett at some point. I am no fan of TJ Duckett and see him barely making the roster if at all. 240 carries 960 yds 6 TD40 rec 320 yds 2 TD1280 yds and 8 TD...he has some value actually. he could do even better numbers is things go right for him. Lack of WR hurts the offense but it might open up more chances for the backs.

Jones only managed 4 YPC one time in the last three years in Dallas, running behind a much better o-line than th one he has in Seattle. The Seahawks as a team averaged 3.8 YPC in 2007. I'd be shocked if Jones hit 4 YPC in 2008.Alexander and Morris had 347 carries combines last year. Is Jones really good enough to keep Morris and Duckett at/under the 100 total carry mark? I doubt it. I agree that Duckett isn't very good, but neither is Julius Jones. This will be a true RBBC, and a three-way split, at that. I actually think that I was pretty generous giving Jones 200 carries.A mentioned earlier, Julius Jones is not a very good receving option. His catch totals for his four years in Dallas are 17, 35, 9, and 23. 40 catches really seems like a stretch to me.Finally, 8 TDs? Julius Jones has never scored that many, and the Seahawks RBs (not counting FBs Strong and Weaver) combined for only 10 TDs last year. I feel pretty confident that the goal line role will fall to TJ Duckett here.

 

[Bankerguy]

He will get about 15 carries a game, more in games where he is running well. I see a 60/40 split with MoMo, but don't count out Justin Forsett at some point. I am no fan of TJ Duckett and see him barely making the roster if at all. 240 carries 960 yds 6 TD40 rec 320 yds 2 TD1280 yds and 8 TD...he has some value actually. he could do even better numbers is things go right for him. Lack of WR hurts the offense but it might open up more chances for the backs.

Jones only managed 4 YPC one time in the last three years in Dallas, running behind a much better o-line than th one he has in Seattle. The Seahawks as a team averaged 3.8 YPC in 2007. I'd be shocked if Jones hit 4 YPC in 2008.Alexander and Morris had 347 carries combines last year. Is Jones really good enough to keep Morris and Duckett at/under the 100 total carry mark? I doubt it. I agree that Duckett isn't very good, but neither is Julius Jones. This will be a true RBBC, and a three-way split, at that. I actually think that I was pretty generous giving Jones 200 carries.A mentioned earlier, Julius Jones is not a very good receving option. His catch totals for his four years in Dallas are 17, 35, 9, and 23. 40 catches really seems like a stretch to me.Finally, 8 TDs? Julius Jones has never scored that many, and the Seahawks RBs (not counting FBs Strong and Weaver) combined for only 10 TDs last year. I feel pretty confident that the goal line role will fall to TJ Duckett here.

The only thing I would like to add to this post is that Dallas does have a good O-Line "stats wise". However, it's an overated group. They are not the great run blockers they are more known for pass blocking. They are over rated there too because Romo dodges sooo many sacks and has a lighting release.Julius is an intriguing player this year. It's an offense that could suit him well. Holmgren could be the fix. With Julius there is some talent there (We all saw it during his rookie season). My concern with Julius is the Seattle O-line and how many carries to project for him.I am reserving judgement on him until the day before my draft. Right now......I just don' t know.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Very Good Pt about Dal O-Line... they are built too protect the QB; not open up holes for the RB like Minny is built... NO has the same issue.

If u can Land JJ as a late #3 or early #4 in the 8th or so rd... thats great value.

JJ has great Redraft value this yr, not so much in dynasty.

 

[MAC_32]

Very Good Pt about Dal O-Line... they are built too protect the QB; not open up holes for the RB like Minny is built... NO has the same issue.If u can Land JJ as a late #3 or early #4 in the 8th or so rd... thats great value.JJ has great Redraft value this yr, not so much in dynasty.

He's not been going in the 8th in the redraft mocks I've seen, more like the 5th or 6th, which I believe is awful value and even JJ's backers should be able to admit is not "great" value.

 

[switz]

They are not the great run blockers they are more known for pass blocking.

I'm not sure what makes you say that. The DAL OL has done a great job at run blocking the last three years. Marion Barber didn't get 4.8 YPC because he's fast, he got it because he's 2-3 yards down field before he gets touched.Look at these holes!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

They are not the great run blockers they are more known for pass blocking.

I'm not sure what makes you say that. The DAL OL has done a great job at run blocking the last three years. Marion Barber didn't get 4.8 YPC because he's fast, he got it because he's 2-3 yards down field before he gets touched.Look at these holes!

I just moved MB III into my top5....guy is a manchild.

 

[Todem]

The Seahawks signed Julius Jones to take the lead role in a running-back-by-committee, but I'm not convinced that he's a better runner than Maurice Morris – or even than T.J. Duckett, for that matter. If Jones splits carries with Morris between the twenties, then lets Duckett take over on the goal line, he's not worth his current early fifth-round ADP.122 rushes for 479 yards and 3 TDs / 12 catches for 95 yards and 0 TDs

Agree 100%145 carries425 yards1 TD15 catches78 Yards0 TD's

 

[switz]

They are not the great run blockers they are more known for pass blocking.

I'm not sure what makes you say that. The DAL OL has done a great job at run blocking the last three years. Marion Barber didn't get 4.8 YPC because he's fast, he got it because he's 2-3 yards down field before he gets touched.Look at these holes!

I just moved MB III into my top5....guy is a manchild.

I wouldn't put him top 5 yet....But in the spirit of this thread, Julius Jones stinks, and where he's been going IMO is not even close to a steal unless every other RB on the Seahawks roster gets hurt.

 

[Bankerguy]

They are not the great run blockers they are more known for pass blocking.

I'm not sure what makes you say that. The DAL OL has done a great job at run blocking the last three years. Marion Barber didn't get 4.8 YPC because he's fast, he got it because he's 2-3 yards down field before he gets touched.Look at these holes!

Most knowledgeable Cowboy fans will tell you the same thing I am right now. The O-line was not that great in the running game. Barber's YPC were high because of a few long runs he posted as well as getting some of the tough yards Jones in not capable of getting. I believe Dallas had the lowest % in short yardage running situations. I'll see if I can find that later on when I have more time. They definately had better success on the right side (Davis/Columbo) then they did on the Left side (Flo/Kosier). With the return of Hudson Houck I expect this unit to improve. However, this thread is about Jones and his performance last year. I'm just asserting that the line played a small factor in Jones lack of success. Please also don't assume I am saying if the line was better Jones would have be a Stud.....not true either.

 

[rzrback77]

I will be the contrarian in this thread. I think that J Jones is better than he showed in Dallas and better than Morris and especially Duckett. I think that he will be the lead RB in a pseudo RBBC at Seattle. Furthermore, I think he is considerably more capable than SA was last year. I think that he will do all he can to take advantage of the second chance opportunity. However, I can't believe that he is going as high as 5th round. I woould have thought that he would be falling to the seventh or eight round and if so, he could prove valuable there.

Julius Jones 260 carries for 1,170 yards 4.5 ypc with 22 receptions for 220 yards 10.0 ypc and 8 TDs

 

[TaxMan]

I will be the contrarian in this thread. I think that J Jones is better than he showed in Dallas and better than Morris and especially Duckett. I think that he will be the lead RB in a pseudo RBBC at Seattle. Furthermore, I think he is considerably more capable than SA was last year. I think that he will do all he can to take advantage of the second chance opportunity. However, I can't believe that he is going as high as 5th round. I woould have thought that he would be falling to the seventh or eight round and if so, he could prove valuable there.Julius Jones 260 carries for 1,170 yards 4.5 ypc with 22 receptions for 220 yards 10.0 ypc and 8 TDs

4.5 ypc ??? not a ton of guys gets 260 carries and have a 4.5ypc, especially not JJ.

 

[switz]

I will be the contrarian in this thread. I think that J Jones is better than he showed in Dallas and better than Morris and especially Duckett. I think that he will be the lead RB in a pseudo RBBC at Seattle. Furthermore, I think he is considerably more capable than SA was last year. I think that he will do all he can to take advantage of the second chance opportunity. However, I can't believe that he is going as high as 5th round. I woould have thought that he would be falling to the seventh or eight round and if so, he could prove valuable there.

Julius Jones 260 carries for 1,170 yards 4.5 ypc with 22 receptions for 220 yards 10.0 ypc and 8 TDs

Can you provide a little basis for your guesstimation? Q: First, has Jones ever averaged 4.5 YPC in his career?

A: No. In fact, his highest YPC was 4.2, and he had less than 200 carries that season.

Q: How many carries is the most he's ever had?

A: 267. He also had 257 one season. In his other two seasons he saw less than 200.

Q: What's his career YPR?

A: 8.0 and that's with one season where he had 15.8 YPR but that was on 9 catches. None of the other three seasons were close to 10, and 2 were in the 6 range.

Outside of those points, what makes you so optimistic?

 

[T Bell]

They are not the great run blockers they are more known for pass blocking.

I'm not sure what makes you say that. The DAL OL has done a great job at run blocking the last three years. Marion Barber didn't get 4.8 YPC because he's fast, he got it because he's 2-3 yards down field before he gets touched.Look at these holes!

I just moved MB III into my top5....guy is a manchild.

Not an impact player.

 

[T Bell]

I will be the contrarian in this thread. I think that J Jones is better than he showed in Dallas and better than Morris and especially Duckett. I think that he will be the lead RB in a pseudo RBBC at Seattle.

I can buy what you're saying up to this point. I think 4.5 ypc, though, is not tenable. I could see him rushing for roughly 250/1000 as more or less of his upside, which would appear to surprise a lot of people, but beyond that I wouldn't want to stick my neck out. Is Duckett going to be the short yardage back in Seattle?

 

[AnonymousBob]

Julius Jones career ypc: 3.9

T.J. Duckett's career ypc: 4.0

Why is one so much better than the other?

Jones averaged 3.6 last year running for Dallas.

Duckett averaged 5.2 last year running for Detroit.

 

[softball]

I see no reason for this to become a RBBC, Mike Holmgren has not done it before and has already called Jones a starter.

He gives his primary RB 300+ carries. What he doesn't give is receptions and I don't think Jones will suddenly catch passes.

I'll assume he is healthy all season.

290 carries 1150 yards 6 TDs 20 receptions for 200 yards 1 TD

 

[MAC_32]

Julius Jones career ypc: 3.9T.J. Duckett's career ypc: 4.0Why is one so much better than the other?Jones averaged 3.6 last year running for Dallas.Duckett averaged 5.2 last year running for Detroit.

...but let the "Duckett sucks" calls continue. I don't know what the distribution will be and Julie could be the full time guy, but one look at the numbers and previous situations (Duckett running behind an awful OLine on a bad team, Julie running behind at least an avg OLine on a very good team) says Duckett should be the guy.

 

[AKA]

He has been named the starter....the coach has said he could be an every down back because he is a goo blocker and can catch the ball out of the backfield.....given that the Coach in Sea. is saying these things......

295/1200/8

35/400/1

 

[AnonymousBob]

Coaches say a lot of things, especially this time of year. It's hard to know what is and what isn't true. And a lot of things can change between now, preseason games and the regular season.

If player B is significantly outperforming player A, a change may very well take place. Aside from half a season in Jones' rookie year, it's my opinion he hasn't looked any better than Duckett.

 

[rzrback77]

I will be the contrarian in this thread. I think that J Jones is better than he showed in Dallas and better than Morris and especially Duckett. I think that he will be the lead RB in a pseudo RBBC at Seattle. Furthermore, I think he is considerably more capable than SA was last year. I think that he will do all he can to take advantage of the second chance opportunity. However, I can't believe that he is going as high as 5th round. I woould have thought that he would be falling to the seventh or eight round and if so, he could prove valuable there.

Julius Jones 260 carries for 1,170 yards 4.5 ypc with 22 receptions for 220 yards 10.0 ypc and 8 TDs

Can you provide a little basis for your guesstimation? Q: First, has Jones ever averaged 4.5 YPC in his career?

A: No. In fact, his highest YPC was 4.2, and he had less than 200 carries that season.

Morris averaged 4.5 in Seattle last year, but with only 140 carries and I think JJ is better. Agree with you that with 260 carries 4.5 is probably too high, but these are my projections and I think the Seattle line will be improved in 08 over the last couple of years, so I went a little higher.

Q: How many carries is the most he's ever had?

A: 267. He also had 257 one season. In his other two seasons he saw less than 200.

I think that MB3 is way better than Duckett and Morris so JJ should get that many carries.

Q: What's his career YPR?

A: 8.0 and that's with one season where he had 15.8 YPR but that was on 9 catches. None of the other three seasons were close to 10, and 2 were in the 6 range. With only 22 receptions, it only takes breaking a couple lengthy plays to boost the average. Not a big deal here.

Outside of those points, what makes you so optimistic? Sometimes switching teams gives guys a new lease on life and they take advantage. His brother Thomas did this so maybe it runs in the family.

My replies above in blue bold

 

[TheFanatic]

I see no reason for this to become a RBBC, Mike Holmgren has not done it before and has already called Jones a starter.He gives his primary RB 300+ carries. What he doesn't give is receptions and I don't think Jones will suddenly catch passes.I'll assume he is healthy all season.290 carries 1150 yards 6 TDs 20 receptions for 200 yards 1 TD

I'm in the camp that he breaks 1K yards. I think he runs with a huge chip on his shoulder and tears it up (relative to these expectations, not that hes' going to be top 10 or anything). After this year I don't see him doing much.

 

[TheFanatic]

Oh, and please park the Duckett bandwagon, get off the bus and proceed to push that wagon off a cliff. Duckett will not be the starter. Will never be the starter (barring catastrophic injury) for the Seahawks or any other team...

 

[T Bell]

Honest question here that I'm not sure how to answer myself: how much weight does anyone give to the idea that the Joneses (meaning, Thomas and Julius) might be the relatively rare slow developers in the NFL at the RB position who required a few years in the league before they really emerged as good runners?

In other words, should we consider that a family trait that may suggest Jones is undervalued like his brother was at this point in his career?

 

[switz]

Honest question here that I'm not sure how to answer myself: how much weight does anyone give to the idea that the Joneses (meaning, Thomas and Julius) might be the relatively rare slow developers in the NFL at the RB position who required a few years in the league before they really emerged as good runners?

The difference between Thomas and Julius is this: Thomas struggled to run early in his career because he was on a horrible team. Julius struggled to run early in his career because he's a horrible runner.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Honest question here that I'm not sure how to answer myself: how much weight does anyone give to the idea that the Joneses (meaning, Thomas and Julius) might be the relatively rare slow developers in the NFL at the RB position who required a few years in the league before they really emerged as good runners?

The difference between Thomas and Julius is this: Thomas struggled to run early in his career because he was on a horrible team. Julius struggled to run early in his career because he's a horrible runner.

I think Thomas Jones also had a physical problem that wasn't properly diagnosed in Arizona. (Something to do with breathing? I can't remember.)Ah -- just found it. Detached cartilage in his ribs, which did impact his breathing.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

They are not the great run blockers they are more known for pass blocking.

I'm not sure what makes you say that. The DAL OL has done a great job at run blocking the last three years. Marion Barber didn't get 4.8 YPC because he's fast, he got it because he's 2-3 yards down field before he gets touched.Look at these holes!

I just moved MB III into my top5....guy is a manchild.

Not an impact player.

Not an impact poster Just having a little fun back at you.

 

[Rockchild]

He should be motivated and has the opportunity in Seattle to carry the load. I'm just not convinced that he's going to be the bell cow and get the vast majority of carries as there are other backs that will be asked to contribute.

192 carries 748 yds 5 TD

28 receptions 174 yds 1 TD

 

[T Bell]

Honest question here that I'm not sure how to answer myself: how much weight does anyone give to the idea that the Joneses (meaning, Thomas and Julius) might be the relatively rare slow developers in the NFL at the RB position who required a few years in the league before they really emerged as good runners?

The difference between Thomas and Julius is this: Thomas struggled to run early in his career because he was on a horrible team. Julius struggled to run early in his career because he's a horrible runner.

I think Thomas Jones also had a physical problem that wasn't properly diagnosed in Arizona. (Something to do with breathing? I can't remember.)Ah -- just found it. Detached cartilage in his ribs, which did impact his breathing.

Now if they could only find the cause of Julius' choking . . .

 

[TheFanatic]

Honest question here that I'm not sure how to answer myself: how much weight does anyone give to the idea that the Joneses (meaning, Thomas and Julius) might be the relatively rare slow developers in the NFL at the RB position who required a few years in the league before they really emerged as good runners?

The difference between Thomas and Julius is this: Thomas struggled to run early in his career because he was on a horrible team. Julius struggled to run early in his career because he's a horrible runner.

I think Thomas Jones also had a physical problem that wasn't properly diagnosed in Arizona. (Something to do with breathing? I can't remember.)Ah -- just found it. Detached cartilage in his ribs, which did impact his breathing.

Now if they could only find the cause of Julius' choking . . .

 

[AnonymousBob]

Oh, and please park the Duckett bandwagon, get off the bus and proceed to push that wagon off a cliff. Duckett will not be the starter. Will never be the starter (barring catastrophic injury) for the Seahawks or any other team...

Because he's played for worse teams than JJ yet has the better ypc? Because he signed a 5 year deal worth 14 million?Julius Jones signed a 4 year deal worth virtually the same amount of money.I do not believe Duckett is this hidden all world talent. I just don't believe Jones is either. Julius has had the chance to carry the load for a very good team and he failed. Duckett's ypc in his 6 seasons: 5.23.53.14.94.03.9Julius Jones in his 4 seasons:3.64.13.94.2Jones rips off longer runs and yet still has the lower ypc?

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I do not believe Duckett is this hidden all world talent. I just don't believe Jones is either. Julius has had the chance to carry the load for a very good team and he failed.

This just about sums it up for me. I don't think that any of the Seattle RBs is really any better/worse than the others. No one will grab this job and run with it. I thik that chances are pretty good that Jones, Duckett, and Morris all get anywhere in the range of 100 - 250 touches, which will kill them all re: fantasy value.Jones and Duckett are making very similar amounts of money; why are so many people assuming that Jones is the clear cut starter here?

 

[TheFanatic]

Oh, and please park the Duckett bandwagon, get off the bus and proceed to push that wagon off a cliff. Duckett will not be the starter. Will never be the starter (barring catastrophic injury) for the Seahawks or any other team...

Because he's played for worse teams than JJ yet has the better ypc? Because he signed a 5 year deal worth 14 million?Julius Jones signed a 4 year deal worth virtually the same amount of money.I do not believe Duckett is this hidden all world talent. I just don't believe Jones is either. Julius has had the chance to carry the load for a very good team and he failed. Duckett's ypc in his 6 seasons: 5.23.53.14.94.03.9Julius Jones in his 4 seasons:3.64.13.94.2Jones rips off longer runs and yet still has the lower ypc?

You need to look at when Duckett is getting the ball. He is not starting. He is not coming running the ball in obvious rushing situation. He is brought in a lot on 3rd down. Heckufa big body to block in passing situations and when he gets the ball there is a lot of room to run. Ducket has sniffed 200 carries once. He had 197 early in his career and had a whopping 4.0 YPC. Otherwise he is just a 120 carry back. If his YPC was more than an aberration he would be starting somewhere. And to say that he has a higher YPC like it's a significant number is just ridiculous. We're talking about .1 difference. It may be higher but would be willing to bet that the difference is not statistically significant. And don't tell me that he was on bad teams. The Falcons led the league in Rushing during his tenure there.

 

[switz]

You need to look at when Duckett is getting the ball. He is not starting. He is not coming running the ball in obvious rushing situation. He is brought in a lot on 3rd down. Heckufa big body to block in passing situations and when he gets the ball there is a lot of room to run. Ducket has sniffed 200 carries once. He had 197 early in his career and had a whopping 4.0 YPC. Otherwise he is just a 120 carry back. If his YPC was more than an aberration he would be starting somewhere. And to say that he has a higher YPC like it's a significant number is just ridiculous. We're talking about .1 difference. It may be higher but would be willing to bet that the difference is not statistically significant. And don't tell me that he was on bad teams. The Falcons led the league in Rushing during his tenure there.

What was Jones YPC last year on how many carries??

 

[TheFanatic]

You need to look at when Duckett is getting the ball. He is not starting. He is not coming running the ball in obvious rushing situation. He is brought in a lot on 3rd down. Heckufa big body to block in passing situations and when he gets the ball there is a lot of room to run. Ducket has sniffed 200 carries once. He had 197 early in his career and had a whopping 4.0 YPC. Otherwise he is just a 120 carry back. If his YPC was more than an aberration he would be starting somewhere. And to say that he has a higher YPC like it's a significant number is just ridiculous. We're talking about .1 difference. It may be higher but would be willing to bet that the difference is not statistically significant. And don't tell me that he was on bad teams. The Falcons led the league in Rushing during his tenure there.

What was Jones YPC last year on how many carries??

He had a down year. Big deal. Doesn't mean a guy who has exactly 1 start (a last game of a year) since 2003 is going to take over as the starter.I've said it before, JJ is going to play like a man possessed this year and then revert back to mediocrity....But Duckett is not going to be a starter in Seattle unless a major injury is involved...

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Oh, and please park the Duckett bandwagon, get off the bus and proceed to push that wagon off a cliff. Duckett will not be the starter. Will never be the starter (barring catastrophic injury) for the Seahawks or any other team...

Because he's played for worse teams than JJ yet has the better ypc? Because he signed a 5 year deal worth 14 million?Julius Jones signed a 4 year deal worth virtually the same amount of money.I do not believe Duckett is this hidden all world talent. I just don't believe Jones is either. Julius has had the chance to carry the load for a very good team and he failed. Duckett's ypc in his 6 seasons: 5.23.53.14.94.03.9Julius Jones in his 4 seasons:3.64.13.94.2Jones rips off longer runs and yet still has the lower ypc?

You need to look at when Duckett is getting the ball. He is not starting. He is not coming running the ball in obvious rushing situation. He is brought in a lot on 3rd down. Heckufa big body to block in passing situations and when he gets the ball there is a lot of room to run.

Actually, that couldn't be further from the truth. Duckett tends to come in in short yardage situations a lot (way more than average for RBs) and doesn't get a lot of the 3rd down long yardage carries at ALL. He had exactly 2 last year, none the year before, and just a handfull for most of the years prior combined. When Duckett comes in, teams are geared to stop him for sure. Not sure where you are getting your info.Where he was most effective last year was on 1st down, when teams really need it to set up their offense.I have them both in one league (unfortunately) and neither in my other leagues. I'd love it if EITHER of them would show something, but I can honestly say I've been far more impressed with Duckett than Jones over the past couple of years.

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Julius Jones basically ran for 1000 yards in back-to-back seasons before he lost his job to Marion Barber. When has TJ Duckett ever shown that he was able to do that? I don't think there's much doubt that Jones will be the main running back for the Seahawks. I just wonder if he's going to get the goal-line carries. TJ Duckett used to be quite the TD vulture but in recent years no so much. If Julius Jones can get most of the carries for what should be a pretty good Seattle offense he just might have some value in 2008.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

Julius Jones basically ran for 1000 yards in back-to-back seasons before he lost his job to Marion Barber. When has TJ Duckett ever shown that he was able to do that? I don't think there's much doubt that Jones will be the main running back for the Seahawks. I just wonder if he's going to get the goal-line carries. TJ Duckett used to be quite the TD vulture but in recent years no so much. If Julius Jones can get most of the carries for what should be a pretty good Seattle offense he just might have some value in 2008.

Over the past 5 years, the only three guys better at converting goal line opportunities to TDs than Duckett were Alexander (hello huge holes), and Priest (who crushes everybody else). He's converted 25 of 49 attempts from within 5 yards. LT has been close, converting exactly half (of a boatload).For some reason a lot of people seem to think Duckett's short yardage ability is overrated, but he gets the job done WAY more than most.Julius has converted 9 out of 32 by the way.

 

[TheFanatic]

Julius Jones basically ran for 1000 yards in back-to-back seasons before he lost his job to Marion Barber. When has TJ Duckett ever shown that he was able to do that? I don't think there's much doubt that Jones will be the main running back for the Seahawks. I just wonder if he's going to get the goal-line carries. TJ Duckett used to be quite the TD vulture but in recent years no so much. If Julius Jones can get most of the carries for what should be a pretty good Seattle offense he just might have some value in 2008.

Over the past 5 years, the only three guys better at converting goal line opportunities to TDs than Duckett were Alexander (hello huge holes), and Priest (who crushes everybody else). He's converted 25 of 49 attempts from within 5 yards. LT has been close, converting exactly half (of a boatload).For some reason a lot of people seem to think Duckett's short yardage ability is overrated, but he gets the job done WAY more than most.Julius has converted 9 out of 32 by the way.

Looks like we have Thunder and Lightning here. TJ will be money in TD only leagues but nothing more than a bye week/injury fill in

 

[The Man with the Plan]

Julius Jones basically ran for 1000 yards in back-to-back seasons before he lost his job to Marion Barber. When has TJ Duckett ever shown that he was able to do that? I don't think there's much doubt that Jones will be the main running back for the Seahawks. I just wonder if he's going to get the goal-line carries. TJ Duckett used to be quite the TD vulture but in recent years no so much. If Julius Jones can get most of the carries for what should be a pretty good Seattle offense he just might have some value in 2008.

Over the past 5 years, the only three guys better at converting goal line opportunities to TDs than Duckett were Alexander (hello huge holes), and Priest (who crushes everybody else). He's converted 25 of 49 attempts from within 5 yards. LT has been close, converting exactly half (of a boatload).For some reason a lot of people seem to think Duckett's short yardage ability is overrated, but he gets the job done WAY more than most.

Julius has converted 9 out of 32 by the way.

You're going a pretty long way back. Since his Falcons days he hasn't been used in that way. After averaging 9 TD's a season from 2003-2005 he's only had 5 TD's the past 2 seasons. What happened since then? If he's still this great goal-line back shouldn't he have still been used in that manner? When he was playing in Washington behind Ladell Betts (who's one of the worst short-yardage backs in the NFL) he still couldn't get any playing time. Last season in Detroit he wasn't much use in any game except for part of a game against the Chiefs. I'm not sure what's going to be so different in Seattle compared to his last 2 teams.

So TJ Duckett isn't much of a runner (career high 779 yards). He can't catch (career high 11 catches) and so far the past two seasons he doesn't score many touchdowns (2 in 2006, 3 in 2007). What good is he now? Why did the Seahawks even sign him? Maybe they're just smarter than the other two teams and make him a glorified goal-line back again.

I'm not even saying that Julius Jones is that good because he's not but compared TJ Duckett well there is no comparison.

 

[Jedimaster21]

I actually think that Julius Jones is more talented than he has shown at the NFL level. He is pretty athletic and fast, and is also a pretty tough runner. However, he doesn't seem to be a great all around back, and also doesn't seem to be very instinctual or show the vision necessary to make big plays. Duckett has also been a career underachiever, and this will be his opportunity to shine (if there ever was one). Mo Morris has been a decent NFL player. All three have good pedigrees (1st, 2nd, 2nd round), but they also have different skill sets. They all seem to complement each other pretty well, which will most likely keep any of the three from fantasy success.

Despite all the competition, Julius Jones has a little upside in this offense if he can show us something he never has...but that just isn't very likely. I see this as a true RBBC with Jones, Morris, and Duckett. The value play in this situation might be Duckett who could actually get over 10 TDs if the offense/offensive line improves.

200 carries for 800 yards

15 catches for 120 yards

5 Tds