Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Player Spotlight: Kerry Collins (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Jason Wood
- Start date
David Yudkin
Footballguy
If we just look at it that Owens added 63 fantasy points to McNabb's average numbers (combining the 700 yards and 7 TD) and Moss would do the same to Collins, 255 + 63 = 318 fantasy points. This, of course, assumes that McNabb = Collins and Owens = Moss.I still think that that is the high side for Collins in Oakland, although it is not unreasonable for him to get it. However, there are some that are using that as the LIKELY outcome (not a high side, possible outcome).
If we were to suggest that Moss = 63 points of QB fantasy production, by the same token Culpepper would then be 433 - 63 = 370 fantasy points (which most people will say is too high).
KnowledgeReignsSupreme
Footballguy
I dunno about all that, but I DO know Norv Turner != Andy Reid.
Oakland as a team had 582 pass attemps last year.I don't expect this number to drop.Collins Completion % last year was 56.3%I expect this number to increase with Moss in the game.Don't forget, Moss is a big target for a WR (6-4), he can separate and is a top WR in the league. New system should be no problem. My prediction is nearly 60%Collins yards/attemps was a low 6.8With Moss on the field I expect this number to increase too, let's say to nearly 7.0.This would lead to my prediction for 16 games:590/350/4050/29/23
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I guess my question is how people will project the Oakland offense to move the ball. The Raiders had an insanely low amount of rushing attempts (328)--which was the lowest total for an NFL franchise sine some of the 80s Falcons teams.Here are the rushing totals for Turner's teams--either as a HC or as an OC:
Oakland: 328
Miami: 487, 530
SD: 435
Washington: 407, 469, 467, 453, 401, 463, 446
Dallas: 433, 500, 490
Los Angeles: 503, 578, 512, 507, 472, 422
In looking at that, I can't see any way that the Raiders don't try to run the ball at least 100 more times this season. They need to keep the defense off the field and have some semblance of time of possession.
The real question for Collins is how many TOTAL PLAYS the team will run this season. The Raiders had a low total last year, and they need to improve on that total for Collins to be the gun slinger that many are predicting.
Iwannabeacowboybaby!
Footballguy
I feel quite confident that Oakland will be a team that will have overrated players on it from a fantasy perspective. Kerry Collins was almost undraftable last year but now he's supposedly a top 6 QB.Lamont Jordan was a backup RB in his prime and is now expected to be a top 15 RB by many. I'll pass and see little value in taking these players at those positions.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Dave,Actually the bar will depend on the amount of interceptions he throws next year. Looking at the #5 QB over the last 4 years it seems that they score in the neighborhood of 256 points. #5 QBs Stats2004: Plummer, 4089-27-20; 202-1 (257)2003: Brooks, 3546-24-8; 175-2 (250)2002: Bledsoe, 4359-24-15; 67-2 (252)2001: Favre, 3921-32-15; 56-1 (265) 4000/35 (in a pt/25 yds and 4/pass TD -2/INT) would be 300 fantasy points which would mean that Collins would have to throw 25 INTs to fall out of the top 5. The closest he has come to that was in 1997 with the Panthers. Traditionally Collins is around 15 INTs. Also interesting to note that there were 5 4000 yard passers and 4 QBs with 30+ TDs in 2004. The NFL average is 3 4000 yard passers and 2 QBs with 30+. If you look at the last 10 years there is a pattern where the passing goes up for a year and then comes down for 2 or 3.
a 130 more plays! You can add them by yourself to the rushing numbers.I agree that they have to improve (and maybe re-install) the rushing game, but with Moss on your team you are able to (and going to) pass the ball on 2nd and long, 2nd and mid, 3rd and long and even on a 1st down to surprise.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Obviously, there are a lot of variables in scoring systems and annual performance totals that will play into this.Using the FBG scoring system (20 passing yds = 1 pt, passing TD = 4 pts, 10 rushing yds = 1 pt, rushing TD = 6 pts, interceptions = -1 pt), here are the last 5 year numbers for the QB5: 320, 295, 318, 321, and 338. That averages out to 318 points. I used 320 for the math I used. I think either way is in the ball park.
In this system, Collins will be hurt by having minimal rushing totals and the 4 points per passing TD proviso.
All along I have not been suggesting that Collins will tank this year, only that he will not represent much value come draft day. He will be drafted having to have 30 TD just to earn back his draft spot, and IMO that is setting the bar awfully high for a MINIMUM for any sort of ROI. I can't see Collins lasting more than the QB 8 on draft day, and seeing that that was Collins highest ranking of his career, I think it is a risky pick--especially if he goes sooner than that.
Last edited by a moderator:
Muahahaha
Footballguy
I am going to ask the same question I asked in the Moss thread. Did any of you that are projecting 30+ TDs for Collins look at their schedule:Sep 8 @New England 9:00pmSep 18 Kansas City 8:30pmSep 25 @Philadelphia 1:00pmOct 2 Dallas 4:15pmWeek 5 BYE Oct 16 San Diego 4:15pmOct 23 Buffalo 4:15pmOct 30 @Tennessee 1:00pmNov 6 @Kansas City 1:00pmNov 13 Denver 4:05pmNov 20 @Washington 1:00pmNov 27 Miami 4:05pmDec 4 @San Diego 8:30pmDec 11 @N.Y. Jets 1:00pmDec 18 Cleveland 4:05pmDec 24 @Denver 4:15pmDec 31 N.Y. Giants 8:00pmOutside of the two Kansas City games and the Tennesee games, where are the easy games? New England, Philly, Buffalo, Washington, Miami, NYJ.... Cleveland actually wasn't too bad against the pass last year. And Denver dramatically improved with the addition of Champ Bailey.Moss and Collins are going to have career years against these guys?
jurb26
Footballguy
This is what I just dont get. Collins ADP is QB8 right now. You say you can't see him lasting longer than QB8, well HE IS! Enough so that his average position is the QB8. Yeah I'm sure some leagues are having guys overpay for him, but this only means in others he is a steal. His high draft spot has been 2.09 and his low 10.04. So saying he can be had no later than QB8 and for no value is simply absurd. How does this not represent good value for a guy who is even based on your own nubmers a very good chance to be top 5?http://www.antsports.com/adp.asp
Last edited by a moderator:
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Let's be realistic here. In Shark Leagues, Kerry Collins WILL NOT last beyond QB8. THERE IS NO WAY that in expert leagues that he will fall to 10.04.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
NE won't be too bad stat wise.DAL will be easy. They ranked 21st in yards allowed and 29th in TDs allowed.SD (x2) shouldn't be too bad. They were second worst in passing yards allowed. WAS had a good D last year but they lost a couple of good players in Smoot and Pierce. They have nowhere to go but down.Miami was 2nd in yards allowed and 14th in TDs. Did they get better? Plus if you look closer into those numbers they had the fewest passes attempted against them, and the most rushes attempted against them. Teams were able to run all over them. So it wasn't like they were stopping the pass, teams just chose to run against them. The NYJ were ranked 14th in yards allowed and 16th in TDs. I'd hardly call that a dominating defense.The NYG ranked 24th in TDs allowed.
Muahahaha
Footballguy
OK. We disagree. You think he will average 2TDs/gm. against this schedule. I thnk it will shade closer to 1.7. Last year, these defenses allowed an average of 1.38 passing TDs/gm.I think they will fare better than the average team, but not over 50% better....
Last edited by a moderator:
I would be very, very careful about reading too much into ADP at this point in the year. Its like talk show hosts say, dont confuse your callers with public opinion. People doing mock drafts in May are not your average owner and may not be following their usual draft strategy.
Muahahaha
Footballguy
Collins produced 21 TDs in 14 gms. last year. That equals 1.5 TDs/gm. I think that the addition of Moss/Jordan will push that up to 1.75 TDs/gm against a tougher schedule. [They are replacing the cushy AFC South with the much tougher AFC East & the NFC South with the NFC East.]This works out to 1.75 x 16 = 28 TDs.
jurb26
Footballguy
When will you be willing to say that the ADP is accurate? If it heads in the opposite direction from which you hope a month form now, will that not be an accurate date to check it either? This looks like a very suspect arguement. The fact that you can't verify which date you think would be most accurate only makes me think even more that you are only trying to suit it towards your agruement. I could care less which date from now to the start of the season you want to look at. Your the one who says the current one is flawed, not me. IMO, ADPs are 1 of the only true tools we can use in FF that lacks statisictal bias from those presenting it. It is an averge of peoples opinions outside your own. You seem to think that these opinions and this data are only relevent at paricular moments in time. I disagree, if your doing a draft TODAY, this is what you would look to for a source. Anyway, I'm willing to play along in the game. So set a date that you feel is not flawed and we can check back. Of course I expect it to change. However, outside some sort of huge news break, I don't expect it will be all that drastic a change.
Last edited by a moderator:
First of all we have to define 'accurate'. The ADP tool gives you one accurate statistic, how people draft in mock drafts on a particular site. If you averaged every fantasy draft in the country it wouldnt look like a given ADP, because people that mock draft in May are not an average sample of fantasy owners in the world. That should be pretty obvious.
You can believe whatever you want. You are applying the ADP tool on too broad a plain. If your league is composed of all sharks who fit the ADP user type mold, its a very accurate tool. If not, your mileage will vary. And that profile will change as the summer wears on and growing numbers of less hardcore owners mock. That should also be plain. I would say by the first of August you will have a big sample size that reflects the bulk of leagues most sharks play in, if you want me to pick a date. By then people arent so much test flying draft theories as they are perfecting what they really intend as well."IMO, ADPs are 1 of the only true tools we can use in FF that lacks statisictal bias from those presenting it."The tool is accurate, its the interpretation that is subject to bias."It is an averge of peoples opinions outside your own."People that mock at that given time frame. Not people in general."You seem to think that these opinions and this data are only relevent at paricular moments in time."Of course. If LT2 breaks his leg tomorrow, yesterdays mock isnt accurate, to give an extreme example. If you look at the ADP the day after the superbowl, you are going to get different results than the week before draft, and not just do to injuries and aquisitions, the sample pool changes."Of course I expect it to change. However, outside some sort of huge news break, I don't expect it will be all that drastic a change."Small changes can make for big implications. I dont expect Collins to charge up to #4 in the ADP, but I could easily see him coming in ahead of Hasselback as the summer wears on, and getting in spitting distance of Green and Bulger.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
This is exactly why I suggest using ADP as a guideline, not a rule. For example, last year Thomas Jones' ADP was around the early 4th round as late as August. So a lot of people thought that they would be able to snag him that late.Except by the time late drafts were being held, Jones was going as high as the 15th pick overall and was not falling out of the third round at all.
As has been repeated ad infinitum on these boards, it only takes one guy to snag a guy extra early--and in a group of 12 expert level owners, it's very unlikely that Collins will fall to a point where he will CLEARLY be a value pick.
I think we will see Collins' ADP go up (compared to now). As we get closer to the season, he won't be under the radar, the mags will come out, and overall the hype will get even greater. For example, the Sports Weekly football preview has him ranked as their #4 fantasy QB for the season.
Do I think Collins will bomb? No. Would I want to use a fairly high pick to get him? No. Would I rather wait and get someone else several rounds later that I think will be every bit as good? Yes.
Collins will not come cheap this season, and IMO, where I project him to go does not leave a lot of wiggle room for him producing BEYOND his draft slot.
jurb26
Footballguy
Would you not agree that looking at ADPs is a here and now kind of thing though. I mean you look at them and base todays rankings/drafts/values on current ADPs for the most part. Everything is subject to change in FF. We are talking about hee and now though. Currently, the value for Collins is much higher than people want to admit. These changes you speak of are unexpected and unpredictable. You are better off not counting on them and rolling with the punches and adapting as you go. That is why the agruement for "well these current ADPs is not accurate" seems suspect to me. Of course they will not turn out to be accurate if a guy like LT gets hurt. How confident are you on banknig on a change like that though? ADPS are the truest real time measure we have for the value of players. you can say its not accurate becasue some players may be sharks and others guppies. But hey, thats how most leagues are. Strong players and weaker one. Others in between. What tool would you rather use?
jurb26
Footballguy
I agree with near all of this. The thing is though, yeah Collins may get grabbed up by 1 guy way early in your particualr league. His ADP suggest that this is not a common occurrence though, at least not yet. If it does happen though, its not like Collins is in a tier by himself, even though that particuar drafter may have him there (and there is nothign wrong with that). If you don't have him in a ier by himself, simply move on to one of the several other 2nd tier QBs... that are about 8 deep.
Last edited by a moderator:
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Collins vs the mushy AFC South last year:Indy: 245 yds, 1 TD, 3 INTsJax: 142 yds, 0 TD, 3 INTsHou: 237 yds, 0 TD, 3 INTsTen: 371, 5 TDs, 1 INTHe really padded his stats vs. the AFC South last year. Last time I check Tenn. was still on the schedule.Collins vs. the NFC South last year:Atl: 166 yds, 0 TDs, 1 INTNO: 350 yds, 2 TDs, 1 INTCar: 231yds, 0 TD, 1 INTTB: 228 yds, 1 TD, 1 INTCollins vs. AFC West last year
en: 136yds, 0 TDs, 1 INT and 339 yds, 4 TDs, 2 INTsSD: 227 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT and 263 yds, 1 TD, 2 INTsKC: 343 yds, 3 TDs, 0 INT and 217 yds, 2 TDs, 1 INTSo the team Collins won't face this year accounted for 1599 yds, 4 TDs and 13 INTs. Avg per game: 266.5 yds/gm, .67 TDs, 2.16 INTsThe teams Collins will face again this year accounted for 1896 yds, 17 TDs and 7 INTs. Avg per game: 237 yds/gm, 2.13 TDs, .88 INTs.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
DISCLAIMER: I know this has absolutely no bearing on future performance but I took a look at what Moss has done career-wise vs. the NFC East whom he'll face this year.DALLAS: 3-163-3, 6-91-2, 7-144-2WAS: 5-64-0, 5-66-1NYG: 3-44-0, 10-171-3, 3-85-0, 7-125-2PHI: 7-95-1, 8-69-1TOTAL (11 games): 64-1117-15AVG PER GAME: 6-102-1
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Equally non-relevant would be his stats against AFC East teams:7 games, 43 receptions, 616 yards, 3 TD
AVG PER GAME: 6 receptions, 88 yards, 0.4 TD
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Those will be the games Collins hits Porter and Curry.
Muahahaha
Footballguy
So, do you think the schedule is just as difficult, more difficult, or less difficult?It's funny, because I was watching this whole segment on NFL Total Access where LT and Drew Brees were complaining about how much harder the AFC West schedule was this year, but, you know, maybe they were wrong....
Last edited by a moderator:
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
That's something we're unable to determine right now. On paper you'd be hard pressed to say it's easier. But something as simple as having a good team at home as opposed to on the road can make a difference. Collins was terrible on the road last year vs. non-division opponents. So games like PHI, NE, WAS, NYJ will give him problems (these are probably gonna be he toughest games). But games at home vs. MIA, NYG, DAL, CLE he should do well there irregardless of the other teams defensive rankings. Here's the top 10 Ds from 2004---------------------------------------------------------------------------Pittsburgh Steelers (16th)Philadelphia Eagles (7th) New England Patriots (1st) New York Jets (8th) Washington Redskins (24th) Baltimore Ravens (6th) Jacksonville Jaguars (18th) Buffalo Bills (5th) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4th) Denver Broncos (9th)Things change from year to year. It's futile to devalue Collins based on last years defensive rankings. The one thing we do know is that the Oakland offense will be better.
Really gotta stop looking at this thread....
M
MelvinTScupper
Guest
holy moly....I'm on page 2, does anyone actually mention Collins from here on, or is only McNabb, Owens and Moss?Whew, I finished.Great pissing match in here.I only notice a couple things when I look at the history of Kerry Collins. Almost a lock that he'll throw as many INTs as he does TDs, and in order for him to have a 300 yrd game, it has to be an absolute shootout.I'm a believer that he has value. In no way, shape, or form can I put this guy anywhere near the top 5, given his inability to produce anywhere else. He has Moss. I get it. Moss is great. By putting Moss into the equation, Collins will be better. I doubt his 55% completion rate will go up that much. I doubt he'll have less bad throws to offset his 1/1 TD/INT ratio. Will the Raiders lose a lot this year? Will they play a bunch of shootout games? If so, he gets to 4000 yards and maybe 30 TDs. In a less than perfect scenario (which I think is fair to assume) I can't see much more than 3800, 26 and 20.
Last edited:
I just dont think that is necessarilly true. Again, it comes to who is in the league in question. If the league is full of sharks that mock in April, yeh its a good measure. But there are probably many many more leauges with a few hardcore sharks, a bunch of guys who start paying close attention in August, and a couple of guppies drafting out of a magazine. If you're in a league like that and the draft suddenly was today, i'd be willing to say it would look nothing like the ADP your talking about. Again, as the season gets closer the ADP gets closer to 'average' reality because more of the casual fans who make up the bulk of fantasy footballers start participating. But it entirely depends on the makeup of the league. If you drafted with 11 guys from the Shark Pool, the draft would reflect the ADP pretty well, not least of which being that they all know how the ADP is supposed to go and that influences their drafting. That isnt the case in the 'average' league. Some jerkoff will take Collins in the third round because he's throwing to Randy Moss. Period. And thats their 'secret sleeper'. Not many people mocking right now think that shallowly. I'd almost bet if you averaged every fantasy draft in the world the results would be closer to whatever Fantasy Football Pro-forcast magazine's last cheat sheet was than the ADPs of that particular draft day. Professionals are predictable, but the world is full of amateurs.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
I looked...now I have to respond to posts.
The guppies drafting out of a magazine will have an ADP closer to what you see today because the magazine's are printed up so early. So if they are using the cheatsheets from a magazine written in May, they will have an ADP closer to what you see today because come August the information will be outdated.
If drafts went exactly according to a players ADP, or some magazine projections what fun would they be? Personal preference.
jurb26
Footballguy
All good points.I just dont think that is necessarilly true. Again, it comes to who is in the league in question. If the league is full of sharks that mock in April, yeh its a good measure. But there are probably many many more leauges with a few hardcore sharks, a bunch of guys who start paying close attention in August, and a couple of guppies drafting out of a magazine. If you're in a league like that and the draft suddenly was today, i'd be willing to say it would look nothing like the ADP your talking about. Again, as the season gets closer the ADP gets closer to 'average' reality because more of the casual fans who make up the bulk of fantasy footballers start participating. But it entirely depends on the makeup of the league. If you drafted with 11 guys from the Shark Pool, the draft would reflect the ADP pretty well, not least of which being that they all know how the ADP is supposed to go and that influences their drafting. That isnt the case in the 'average' league. Some jerkoff will take Collins in the third round because he's throwing to Randy Moss. Period. And thats their 'secret sleeper'. Not many people mocking right now think that shallowly.
I'd almost bet if you averaged every fantasy draft in the world the results would be closer to whatever Fantasy Football Pro-forcast magazine's last cheat sheet was than the ADPs of that particular draft day. Professionals are predictable, but the world is full of amateurs.
My major point though is that there is no better tool to use. Out side knowing all of your particular leaguemates very well and their tendancies. A lot of folks are not able to afford that luxury though.Family Matters
Footballguy
After all the magazines come out touting Collins as a breakout player, he'll be going QB3-5. The value will be lost big time.
bueno
In a class by himself
As much as I hate the Raiders, there is a lot of talent in this group and they are an under-rated offense.When you have Porter/Moss/Curry/Gabriel to catch the rock, you're going to get a lot of receptions. (and Davis loves the big play).Say what you want about Jordan, but he is lots better than the Wheatley/Zereoue train wreck they had at RB last year.So: definitely top 10 this year for Collins. give him 4000/30/20 rushing yards are insignificant. He might get 40 all year with 0 tds.
Similar threads
